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Wobbly Wednesday – Virus Surge Worries Markets

Donald Trump's Helicopter Walk After Rally Becomes Meme | PEOPLE.com2,347,102 infected Americans.

Will we even make it to November so we can choose 4 more years of this nightmare?  121,225 Americans are dead out of 477,807 worldwide – only Brazil is close to us with 52,645 dead in their country – clearly not as "great" as ours has been made.  Trump has been calling the virus "Kung Flu", which both attaches it to China (in a racist fashion) and diminishes the toll it is taking on the people of this country who are suffering and dying under his watch.  Well played sir! 

While the Chinese (84,653 infections, 4,640 deaths) are able to travel to Europe and the US, Americans may soon not be able to travel to China or to Europe as both Governments are considering banning US travelers from entering their countries and will at least require 2-week quarantines for those that do wish to escape our disease-ridden nation.  That's as of July 1st folks, so you'd better take that summer vacation quickly.

Trump Puppet Putin | Envisioning The American DreamIn 3.5 years, America has become isolated and unloved, with soaring debts and monstrous unemployment.  We have far less trade, riots in the streets and our life expectancy is crashing as fast as the stock market is rising.  Putin could not possibly be prouder, could he?  

President Trump, as well as his Russian and Brazilian counterparts have followed what critics call a comparable path in their pandemic response that leaves all three countries in a similarly bad spot: they were dismissive at the outset of the crisis, slow to respond to scientific advice and saw a boom of domestic cases as other parts of the world, notably in Europe and Asia, were slowly managing to get their outbreaks under control.

This morning, the stock market kind of cares about the virus and we're down a bit in the Futures.  Joe Biden is up a bit in the polls (50% to 36% Trump and 14% can't seem to make up their minds) so at least things will be interesting going into the election and perhaps Trump's strategy is to have a viral emergency and postpone the election until Don Jr can be appointed our next President in 2024.  Well played, sir! 

I have noticed a trend on Fox News in the past week to cast doubt on the entire science of polling.  Of course they are not always accurate but those are "known unknowns" and generally fall within a statistical margin of error like +/- 5% but you can count the non-white moderates who are even considering voting for Trump on one hand – and those HAVE to be male.  

That doesn't mean he won't be re-elected – it just means we will know for sure that it is a massive fraud if he does…

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Good morning, All!

    Join Phil at 1pm (Eastern) for today's webinar, here: 

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6495544569290605579


  3. Took me a few tries to get TOS running this morning – thought we were going to have another crash day.

    Oil back to $40 – we'll see if it holds.  

    The rest of the World is recovering and opening up with a few setbacks but we are still simply a disaster but we don't use copper for much, so it goes higher as the rest of the World goes back to their near-normal industrial output.  We never had much industrial output in the first place and housing is still being built so copper is in pretty good shape.

    50% Copper, 32% Gold – they should be doing a lot better than $11, which is $15Bn as they made $2.6Bn last year and this year may be a loss but not because of anything long-term bad.  We killed our old FCX play, which was a 2022 $5/10 spread with short $10 puts for a net credit (we had a profit we didn't want to risk) but maybe we should go back in?

    Let's sell 20 FCX 2022 $10 puts for $2.60 ($5,200) in the LTP to remind us to keep an eye on them.


  4. So LTP closed last night at $892,105 and STP $504,790, that's $1,396,895 – down $10,000 since Friday and the market is up a bit so I'd say we're just a bit bearish on balance.

     

     

     

      



  5. I don't know if there are any more ways left to describe the corruption, the incompetence and the malignancy of this administration. At this point, charges of manslaughter could be made – people are dying because decisions based on personal gains have been made.


  6. And it won't be a V-Shape recovery in advanced economies.

    Image


  7. BREAKING: Appeals court orders judge to dismiss criminal case against Michael Flynn

    The decision blocks U.S. District?Judge Emmet G. Sullivan from holding a hearing to scrutinize the Justice Department’s decision to drop its long-running prosecution of Trump’s former national security adviser.

    Flynn, joined by the Justice Department, had asked?the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to force Sullivan?to stop the judge’s examination of the retired three-star general’s politically charged case.

    Flynn had pleaded guilty before two federal judges to lying about his Russia contacts, but later withdrew his plea.


  8. Not good….


  9. Ah, now we are going down properly.  

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +1.4M barrels vs. +0.3M consensus, +1.2M last week.
    • Gasoline -1.7M barrels vs. -1.3M consensus, -1.7M last week.
    • Distillates -0.2M barrels vs. -0.6M consensus -1.4M last week.
    • Futures (CL1:COM -2.3%).

    Not a big deal but oil collapsed.


  10. time for trump to hype up the new stimulus – he will be able to milk this for weeks if is not signed prior to the July break.


  11. There is nothing supporting these markets up apart from retail bag holders. 


  12. Ha! No more testing.  Ha! 


  13. Pharmboy -  They estimate that at least 60% of initial case clusters in the US were seeded by traveling New Yorkers. So how ironic Cuomo is now all of a sudden getting concerned about travel. Fucking guy.


  14. And New York still has more active cases per capita than any other state in the country.


  15. dawg – New York City has 27,000 people per square mile. 

     

    I'm sure you could do a much better job….. :(


  16. Hey All! Webinar will be starting shortly. Phil had a power outage and is now getting everything back up and running. 

    Should be starting in a little while.


  17. The Bug/1020 – maybe Dawg could do a better job, and I sure as hell could. DiBlasio botched it on a number of fronts, including delaying quarantine, shutting out his own health department and listening to some unqualified crony, and political tussles with Cuomo. It ain't the density, it's the stupidity.


  18. snow – without federal leadership – everyone's leadership skills were exposed, some much better than others, but I believe for most it was the best they could do….


  19. Wow, that's infuriating. I gotta butt in here and put my foot down a little. This nation had none, ZERO, federal leadership on the coronavirus. The moron in chief was grandstanding about "15 cases going to zero" and how the disease needs to wash over the population in the exact same week NYC saw its first few cases. The travelers who "Seeded" the other states is a hindsight observation, only fact because we know what happened in arrears, but no one really knew what was coming BEFORE IT HAPPENED. You're just looking for someone with a (D) after their name to blame becuase it make you feel better about yourself. Grow up. The federal executive authority has unique and exclusive access to the federal intelligence apparatus (CIA, NSA, etc) that were all warning, as long ago as November, and certainly very loudly by January, that this pandemic was coming and it was an existential threat to the United States of America. The governors and certainly a city mayor has no such access to this classified intelligence information. It was the duty of the Federal apparatus, operated by a significantly narcissistic and America-Hating incompetent man child, to heed the warnings and act accordingly, in close concert with governors and their downstream local governments, oint he best interests of Americans and their health and he failed to do that on any level whatsoever. Just like any of us who voted against him knew exactly how'd he behave in a national emergency. A bona fide pice of human shit.

    Now STFU and go back to your leisure trading and be glad you're still alive, because 125,000 people aren't.


  20. …and it's still 27,000 people per square mile. For a simpleton like me, that's all that is needed to know.


  21. I knew…. :(


  22. Even with one of the most sinister laughs in politics, I voted for Hillary…. 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orYcAiFqknU

     

    Enjoy!  :)


  23. It was fun being a World Leader and being liked and respected around the world for our economy and diverse culture. It'll be too bad if we're not accepted back after the Orange Turd is flushed. AT least our new BFF dictators in North Korea, Russia and China got to destroy America. It's hard to imagine a plausible theory that refutes this is exactly what the GOP wants.


  24. Blaming Cuomo while not mentioning DeSantis. Unbelievable. The article linked was written in APRIL. FUCKING APRIL.


  25. Wow, BDC – talk about speaking from ignorance and making assumptions about me………


  26. I wasn't talking to you.


  27. recommendation still applies……

     


  28. this article backs up exactly what I'm saying (sorry, ignorantly saying). Read the article but instead imagine a federal authority stepping in quietly with classified national intelligence data saying how things might go and smoothing out the "childish" inter-state contentions, whatever that means.

    NYC is actually a tri-state area and viruses ignore imaginary boundaries.


  29. - I wasn't talking to you or making assumptions about you since my posts id not address you or anything you've collectively said up until this point.

    - "Get back to me" after pointing to an article of questionable utility is arrogant and conceited.

    As 1020 said, ego is a bitch.


  30. snow – at this point, it is hard to point fingers at anyone other than POTUS.

    I'm not into any 'blue on blue' accusations and infighting. History will take care to avoid giving credit to those none deserving.

    Bring on November.


  31. You can ONLY Balme TRUmp  for the predicament we are in – for EVERY Death of every American from this pandemic he is personally responsible for this - He screwed up at the beginning by choosing not to believe the experts, and assuming everyone was lying – he purposefully limited testing at the beginning, and inhibited the organization that was built to deal with this.   AND even today – when there is clear data that masks are very effective, and large in door ( and even out door) events create super spreader breeding grounds – HE IS STILL not doing the very simple things to effect positive change.   In fact he is deliberately increasing the number of people exposed, and creating situations where more people will die directly as a results of his actions – IN DOOR Gatherings.  No Masks.   He is murdering more killing more Americans every day.


  32. Biotechs

    How about MYOV….nice! 

    Just need to jack ARNA to 70, and all is good. 

    TRIL is also doing the biotech portfolio well. 

    RMED needs to put on its walking shoes to $10, and we will all be happy!!!  


  33. At the risk of alienating everyone, as a new member and a new option trader who was really looking forward to Phil and the collective expertise here I have to tell you this chat is largely a waste of time anymore. I find myself parsing through the shit to try to find the nuggets of insight which seem to be fewer and farther between. Is this how it's going to be until November Phil? I saw your post about the idea that we should know how you think and analyze things and your perspective should be tolerated accordingly. I can buy that but why, in anyones right mind would, would anyone pay hundreds of dollars per month to listen to each other's shitty comments. I can turn on CNN or Fox and hear all that crap for free. I, for one, would vote that PSW be a politics free zone unless, of course, those politics are impacting particular markets or trades. 

    Oh, and I wish I'd listened to your webinar and gotten out of that IMAX trade. Anybody have any thoughts on how to save my ass on that would it would be greatly appreciated.:)


  34. alienating – mission accomplished…..


  35. Jbiz, 

    I've been here for over 10 years. Everything I've learned about options/trading/investing started here for me. There is a lot of political banter, but you really need to be able to get past that and you will see that the trades/management/thought process is there. It's sophisticated, varied, and includes methodology/rationale. The portfolio reviews alone are enough for most of us to learn from. Just go through them and ask questions, there are no barriers to you doing that. 

    When things are slow, there will be more discourse on other topics. 

    Rather than focus on what is aggravating you, you could post a question, or your position that needs adjusting. You'll  get an answer from Phil, or many times from someone on here that can help.
     

    If you are in it for the long game, I don't know if a better group to be part of. Just my 2 cents. 

     


  36. 1020/ Ok.

    Jeffdoc/ I hear you, and I'm looking forward to continuing to learn by sifting through it all. None of it's anymore aggravating than every other political discussion but was really hopeful this was a place with a different focus. I was a member briefly years ago and it seemed different back then. In for the long haul and Phil's methodology speaks for itself but the rants get tiring. Just my $.02.


  37. Sorry, power went out right before webinar but back now.

    Wow Pharm, that will fix everything.

    Even as case numbers climb, reports circulated that the federal government is poised to stop providing federal aid to testing sites in some hard-hit states, including Texas, prompting a top federal official to respond that testing was on the rise.

     

    Across the United States, 26,096 new covid-19 cases had been reported as of 3 p.m. ET Wednesday, a worrying trend since there were 23,865 cases reported the entire day last Wednesday.

    Nine states (California, with an average of 4,744, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Nevada, Mississippi and Missouri, with 320) reported new seven-day rolling average highs, and five (Arizona, with 2270, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina and Montana, with 17) have hit new highs for hospitalizations. Four states (California, Florida, South Carolina and Oklahoma) reported new single-day case highs.

    27,000/1020 – That's NY City including Long Island, Staten Island that dilute.  Manhattan has 70,000 people per sq mile – pretty insane when you think about it.  

    BDC sums it up nicely.  Trump could not have done a worse job if he were purposely trying to destroy this country.  Every single thing this Administration has done has made things worse since the virus started – he even grandstanded the briefings and prevented useful information from getting to the public.  

    Politics/JBiz – Maybe we should have a politics chat where people can go to vent and argue.  I kind of like that idea.  Doubt I'd be there much…

    IMAX/Jbiz – Aside from the anti-political rant, I noticed you mentioned IMAX.  We got out because we felt the timing wasn't going to work and IMAX only has short-term options.  Not sure what you have but they are still a good long-term play and I'd adjust accordingly.  Happy to help if you lay out what you have.

    And what Jeff said! 


  38. Yeah, you guys will notice it's hard for me to talk about the virus now because it's just not "funny" anymore.  We have a serious crisis that's going to leave a very deep economic, political and social scar on this country and yes, of course I blame the President and all the idiots who went along with his science-denying nonsense for months and lit the fuse under this slow-motion bomb that is now exploding around us.  

    I have children, nieces, nephews, a mother who is turning 80 in November and this jackass and his cronies has put all of their lives in danger with now 50% more lives lost than the Vietnam War and I remember every Sunday the dread when we read the papers to see if my older brothers were being drafted.  It took 20 years for 70,000 Americans to be killed fighting for Nixon and his goon squad (and the other idiot Presidents in between Nixon's Vice Presidency in 1953 and his resignation) yet it's only taken 4 months for Team Trump to allow 121,662 Americans to die under his watch.

    Should we be silent?  Should we act like the upcoming election isn't a life or death moment for this country.   Do you want to cower behind "it's all the same" or "so and so didn't do a good job either"?  

    I'm disgusted by what this country has become and what both political parties have become but much, much more so than the GOP and people should be as ashamed to support the horrors that party has unleashed on this once-great nation – once-great being just 3.5 years ago.

    That's my NON-political view of what is going on.  I am so, so sad for this country….


  39. Phil / JPM – You had a nice overview of your trading set up for this one…  I do think I have JPM on my watch list and have been staring at it.   Is now a good time to set seem thing up like the below?  Or does it make make sense to wait for next earnings?

    15X Buy Jan '22 $85 Call for 20 ish

    15X Sell Jan '22 $105 Call for 11 ish

    Sell 5X Jan '22 $90 Puts $15


  40. i Agree with everything you said Phil. It is very sad and silence may be more beneficial but I suppose listening has now become "unamerican." I'm planning to ride out IMAX unless you say otherwise. here's what I did:

    IMAX

    20 Buy Dec 20 10 Call ($3.57)

    20 Sell Dec 20 15 Call $1.25

    10 Sell Dec 20 15 Put $3.87


  41. /Phil/Imax – Imax was a very recent trade that you had suggested. I'm surprised as well when you said we closed it.


  42. Listening is not unAmerican, it's a virtue.

     

    Phil – We're all in the same boat. All I need is close to me and I'm sorry it's not the same for you and yours.

    Hang in there. :)


  43. /Phil/Imax- Trade was posted on the 3rd June.


  44. Lets put back the Mission Accomplished banners now:

    Image

    This is simply a complete failure of leadership. There is no other way to look at. And yes, we can tone down the political chat, but now we have states that will have to go back into lockdown again because they decided to listen to POTUS and opened too soon. And as Fauci said, death are a trailing indicator. The death rate will increase again! So go markets, let's not look at reality on the ground!


  45. At this point I feel like the strategy is just to say "f*ck it" and let the cases go sky high so the govt. can just declare a national emergency in November and call off the elections.


  46. f*ck it – Seriously, and there are some who really feel politics has no place in investing….



  47. Apple to shut seven retail stores in Houston again as COVID-19 cases jump


  48. The 50 most shocking lines from Donald Trump’s wild Arizona speech





  49. IMAX / Ravi / Phil – in Friday's LTP review, "IMAX – They are back but it might have been too soon to jump back in though Asia seems to have the virus more under control than we do and that's half their Box Office so I'll give it until earnings, which is early Aug. "


  50. jbiz82 and all.
    I can hear you. Yes we are a trading web site.
    However many and I say many people have not yet understood in what present time we are living. Sitting here in Europe, I am somewhat amazed what assholes are running the government in the US.
    You need to understand WW 2 was bad but you could see the enemy. Today you do not know if the one next standing to you is a carrier of the virus or not.
    I have been a member of this web site for even more than 10 years; lost count actually, through learning here I was able to build up a nice portfolio holding. But regret most of my holdings are in the US and I am not too sure if I still will have a portfolio at the end of this run.
    I do not have the words to comment to this US leader clown.
    Yes as said by Jeffdoc and Phil, you only have to ask and someone will jump in to help you.
    I just wish Phil’s concern would just reach some of these idiots.
    But at the present circumstances it is indeed hard to find some real jams in this mess. Yes there was a PFE play the other day or T is cheap for a new play, I could give you many others, but possible they could be much cheaper tomorrow, too scared to tell.
    Yes there was blood in the street 19th of March, but who had the balls to jump in, or better how much more will we fall?
    I never favored IMAX but how you can set up an IMAX BCS 10/15 and sell a 15 put is one thing I cannot understand. Selling puts has been always a danger point for me but OTM. As of a rule of thumb you keep the put sale even or below the long call but not near or even above the short call of the BCS.  
    Here in Europe they have learned a bit in respect of this virus, but as well getting light headed again, by opening the doors to the new corona feast.
    Until they find a useable vaccine, corona today is the same danger as of the first day we found out about it.
    Isolation, keep distance, ware masks in more crowded places like supermarkets. If you really want to get infected go to one of the clown’s conventions or even demonstrations. Once he himself will get it, life will also change in the US.
    But until that day you have to keep your distance.
    My two cents.


  51. You could always just move out of the us phil. Canada is relatively safe so far.

    And things are going so bad for trumps master plan that he has to do something.

     and since he always doubles down its likely to be something most people would consider insane 

    His administration is likely working overtime figuring out how to incite a full on civil war or cause complete pandemonium by enabling the virus to get so bad that the only logical thing to do is not have any election due to emergency status of some sort requiring trump to maintain power. Hopefully not.


  52. Here is a little success story for you, which even weathered the corona attack. ABMD, a stock with a lively temperament.
    Started May 19 by selling 2x put vertical Jun19 240/250 when the stock was trading  at 266.00. In June I made my first 400 odd $.
    Dec 19 that stock went down to 168 and I bought Jan22 2x 150 call and sold 3x 145 puts. Jan 20 I added another 2x Jan22 170 calls when the stock was trading at 184. Over the time, not to bore you with all the details I kept selling 2x short time calls and even puts against my long holdings. The stock is now trading at 241.00. My combined total gains, by rolling and getting worthless, today I show a gain of 24,335.00 not too bad for a year’s trading by holding only 4 long calls.
    Obviously this stock has always very high premiums and is not good for everyone, but I only want to show you, that you do not need to sell 10, 20 and 40 plays to make some money.