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Manic Monday – S&P 3,000 Holds as We Pass 10M Infections, 500,000 Deaths

I guess people ignore stuff all the time.

There were 165,534 NEW cases of Covid-19 YESTERDAY – that's double China's TOTAL number of cases yet President Trump still calls it the China virus while China calls it the President's total failure to contain the virus like they did more than 2 months ago.

ALL Donald Trump had to do was do what the Chinese did and what most of Asia did to contain the virus and this never would have happened.  Instead the President ignored the experts, denied the virus was a thread, did not react fast enough or appropriately when he finally did act and TO THIS DAY, he still isn't doing what needs to be done to contain this Global threat and 38,845 people were infected in the US alone yesterday -  HALF of China's TOTAL infections from the "Kung Flu" as the President likes to call it.

Florida, where I live, had a 6.4% rise in infections on SUNDAY – that's pretty much a doubling rate of 10 days!  We are back to a state of emergency a month after opening but everyone knows it's too late – there's really no going back now.  On Thursday, Trump’s administration asked the Supreme Court to throw out the Affordable Care Act, including its protections for people with pre-existing health conditions, in its entirety — despite the president’s frequent insistence that he will always protect such patients. He has never offered a plan to replace the law known as Obamacare.

On Saturday, Trump said on Twitter that he’d win re-election, once again proclaiming that a “silent majority” supports him. He boasted about high television ratings for his recent campaign events and said “these are the real polls, the Silent Majority, not FAKE POLLS!”  Trump has repeatedly said, falsely, that the U.S. has more cases of Covid-19 because it’s conducting more testing for the disease. He’s also expressed skepticism that some of the reported cases are real.  “You’re going to have a kid with the sniffles, and they’ll say it’s coronavirus,” he said Thursday.

DURING a White House coronavirus task force briefing Friday — its first in two months, held at Health and Human Services headquarters and without Trump — the president tweeted a wanted poster for 15 people who allegedly vandalized a statue.

“There may be a tendency among the American people to think we are back to that place we were two months ago” when U.S. deaths peaked at more than 2,500 per day, Pence said. “The reality is we’re in a much better place.”

OMG whatBS!!! How do you people put up with this crap?  I feel like I'm becomming one of those permanently outraged liberals but I can see how that happens now as this is really pushing me to my limits.  Don't you guys have limits?  What is it going to take before we shift into some sort of self-preservation mode and DO SOMETHING?  

We're all home all day, fill up the mailboxes of your Congressmen and Senators (or, better yet, call them) and tell them you want them to DO SOMETHING about this before it's far too late.  Of course, it's 100 degrees in the Arctic Circle so it may already be too late but this is a sooner too late that we can actually do something about.  China did it, they locked down the country, disinfected it, had EVERYONE wear masks and now China has only a few new cases on a bad day and they are almost completely open – THAT's how you do it – take it seriously, educate and EQUIP the people to fight the virus together.  

Anyway, enough venting for me – thanks for listening.  Now, on to the markets.  Well, we're very likely heading into a Depression and the markets are at all-time highs.  As I said to my Members last week, we had fantastic gains this year because we fortunately played the crash very well but now we're risking twice as much into another potential crash and I'm not as comfortable. 

We're going to put a lot of thought into how we're going to move forward but it's almost earnings time (again) and I don't think it's going to be pretty so there's a good chance we're going to decide to sit this one out.  In the meantime, please make sure you are very well-hedged and not over-exposed.  We will go through our Member Portfolios one by one this week to decide their fate.

I apologize if this is a bit depressing but the best way to survive a depression is to protect your wealth so you can take advantage of the next opportunity.

All the best, 

- Phil


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  1. We are back on pace to add over 1M cases of the virus each month. We will be over 5M cases by November if this continues and why would it not? Besides Brazil and Russia, we have the worst management of this pandemic – worse than some 3rd world country! And you have these yahoos going around without mask simply to own the libs! All these governors taking victory laps 2 weeks ago asking for apologies from the press should resign now. They along with Trump are responsible for lost lives.

    And these 5M cases will be people with pre-existing conditions, so no healthcare for them! Thank you Trump. 

    So tired and exhausted by this catastrophe! 

  2. Good Morning.

  3. Good morning!  

    I got more depressed because I went out and people in Florida are still acting like idiots but not enough to keep the stores open so we have that perfect combination of not containing the virus AND destroying the economy.

    I finally figured it all out though, Trump is actually a Democrat!  That's right, he's causing the US to revert to a welfare state AND he's getting the Republican Party to self-destruct AND he's killing off the right wing-nuts by getting them to expose themselves in a pandemic.  BRILLIANT!!!

    3,000 failing – be careful.

  4. tdump will become the proverbial pinata that the right will beat with a stick,(or not talk about at all) much like Bush 1&2, Nixon and even St. Ronnie…. 

  5. Being one of those ranting liberals that gets chastised, have you heard that over 80% of the republican legislature actually voted by mail in the last Wisc primary-the very same hypocrites who made people risk their lives by going to vote and with the help of the Supine Court!!! Now they are doing the same thing again for the big election. Louisville KY had one polling center open to serve over 616,000 voters who never got to cast their votes. Right out of the Gestapo playbook. Amazing how low snakes can slink.

  6. Just a disaster. what else? All you can do is hide from it. 4th world.

  7. Markets going back up – there is still that free money slushing along…

  8. I still think that we are not pricing in the major changes that will be affecting our lives! Remember, people used to think that by July all will be well, we'll be sitting in restaurants and movie theaters again, like nothing happened. July is in 2 days and the crisis is worse than ever. Some changes will be made permanent. Both my kids have been told that remote work is basically in place indefinitely. Some companies might be realizing the benefits of this model and why go back… Then we will need to find jobs for the millions of people who depend on people going to work every day – transportation, dining, etc.

  9. The Bug – I hate to say it (well, no, I don't, but it does make people mad), but I told you so. When all you've got in your plans is lockdown and masks, and expecting people to follow both, that's a plan for failure. "But those Asian countries all use masks" (in a whiny tone). Yeah, and they did a helluva lot more, including a functioning single payer or national medical care system, a functioning public health surveillance system, patient diagnosis and tracking, compensation for work loss – you get the idea. Oh, and the US plan is also to work really hard on a cure and a vaccine. Guess how many pandemics and even minor epidemics have been stopped by vaccines……none, zero, zilch. Prevented, yes – stopped, that again is zippo.

  10. hello folks, I'm a new member. british australian living in Manila. left miami on jan 11 and came to sydney on jan 16. probably more than a year until we get home!! long stock with plenty of cash and planning to move the portfolio to LTP etc. 

  11. i have one ? after studying the portfolios. why are they almost all based on bull call debut than bull put credit? is there an overall rationale? thanks 

  12. stuartcjones

    Welcome  I travel to Boho island normally twice a year

    Stay in Manila before flying out for 3 day

    Interesting history in the city

  13. Not talk about/1020 – You mean like all of their guys.

    Voting/Pirate – DO NOT get me started.  Much more liberal outrage bottled up on that one…

    SPCE/Stuart – It's the only viable option!  

    Slushing/StJ – Yes, that's the only reason I'm not panic-selling.  I'd like to wait until they announce the next stimulus, close our longs into the rally and let the shorts ride.  I agree on remote work – most people realize there's no actual need to go to an office (unless you want to take a break once in a while).  

    Other things/Snow – Good point but we're not doing ANY of those things.

    Welcome Stuart, by the way!  We do bull call debit spreads because we're really Fundamental Investors using options for leverage and hedging so the bull call spreads represent artificial ownership of the underlying position while the short puts indicate our willingness to DD if the price goes lower (see our strategy section and the article on scaling in and out of positions).  One of the main reasons we don't do put spreads is that it would be madness to track it all. I already mix up puts and calls 2-3 times a day – there'd be no recovering if we were switching things up constantly!  

  14. What a ride:

    Missed that one – wow!  

  15. FB is really getting hammered by advertisers now – over 150 are bailing now and not small ones. Coke, Pepsi, Honda, etc… Suddenly, Zuck realizes that after all, they could possibly arbiter the truth. 

  16. FB – Quick!  Where's Sheryl Sandberg? – We need positive spin!…. ;)

  17. STJ – FB – LOL – Zuck seems to be coin operated…..



    AMC, Cinemark fall as Credit Suisse downgrades on COVID-19 spikes

    AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) is down 5.4% premarket, and Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) down 3.2%, as Credit Suisse sees the new coronavirus case spike as cause for downgrading both movie-theater stocks.

    The firm's cut AMC to Underperform, from Neutral. And it's downgraded Cinemark to Neutral from Outperform.

    It now assumes a "much softer" box office return and can see studios getting more cautious about their high-profile releases – that after the two heavily watched July comeback releases, Tenet and Mulan, were delayed by studios. And it says customer may be even slower to return than the theaters themselves.

    As for liquidity, Cinemark is still in good position to endure the crisis, even "into late 2021," but AMC – always in the more risky position – has liquidity through March if theaters stay closed, Credit Suisse says.

    It cut its AMC target to $2 from $4 (implying 52% downside), and cut its Cinemark target to $13 from $20 (14% upside).

    Also moving premarket: IMAX -1.2%; NCMI -3%.

  19. Opening movie theaters has probably been pushed back another 3 months now! Cases are rising in 25 states or more. You would have to be suicidal to go see a movie today.

  20. What a day - end of month / quarter dressing?

  21. Thanks for the welcome qcMike. Phils is certainly a great place for vacations. I've lived there off and on for 30+ years. But I doubt I'll be back there for a year. Let's catch up there sometime, whenever.

    Phil, Thanks for the info on Bull Call Debit spreads

  22. How One Boston Hospital Built a Covid-19 Forecasting System

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  24. How Texas Blew It

  25. Only two US states are reporting a decline in new coronavirus cases

  26. Hi Guys,
    I know the subject has been already discussed to death but here once more my two cents.
    Corona exists and is here like the first day it appeared. So NO change in respect to the virus. I know lots of Americans think the world ends at the ocean borders, but there are still other countries in existing as well.
    I see Phil is already pulling his few hairs out and some new members wonder what type of site we have.
    Just to confirm it is a financial site, possible one of the best in respect of advice.
    Regret it seems to me that in the US they did fail to look over the border  (Europe) what other countries doing to combat the invisible enemy.
    In business the first I like to know what the completion is doing.
    There are simply some few roles to observe. Masks, distance to your next person especially in public places. If there are more than 50 infections in a week in certain areas complete close down.
    Believe me they learned it in Europe, and by loosening restrictions they only run in to the danger, the invisible enemy will return and attack again.
    Regret to see that many younger people think they are untouchable. That leads back to their brain which is not yet fully developed as with older people.
    Finally they virus will be with us until we have found a workable vaccine to boost the defense system.
    If you like it or not these are the facts and as sooner we accept this as better it will be for all. We excuse the small brain of the clown.