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50,000 New Infection Thursday – Happy Holiday!

50,000 new infections!

That's right, that's the 5th time in the past 7 days the US has hit new all-time single-day highs in infections.  Over in Japan, six weeks after Tokyo lifted it's State of Emergency, they are back to their May highs in daily infections.  At this point, I don't think there is much to do about it.  Clearly humanity has no taste for the obvious way to control the disease and very clearly Americans don't.  Maybe the "herd immunity" crowd was right – cows don't go into lockdown when a disease strikes – some die, some don't and the rest of the herd moves on…

I don't suppose a cow puts much thought into it's vulnerability or what will become of it's children and loved ones or how it's business will survive or how it's carelessness might affect his fellow cows - AND NEITHER DO AMERICANS APPARENTLY!  Maybe we just eat to many cows and we are starting to think (or not think) like them?  Texas eats a lot of meat and they had 8,000 new infections yesterday but Arizona, which has 1/4 of Texa's population, had 4,700 new cases – more than half, so about 5 times the infection rate of Texas.

Arizona Gov. Won't Require Masks Despite Coronavirus Surge | TimeFrom Japan and other countries that have had re-infections, it's very clear that bars are a major cause of the spread of the infection yet the bars are open in most states for what is usually a big drinking weekend as we bow to pressure from the Liquor Lobby to keep things flowing while completely ignoring the Rational For God's Sake Will Humanity at Least Try to Save Itself Lobby – as usual.  As noted by David Leonhardt:

Government policy and economic forces have combined to make corporations and the wealthy more powerful, and most workers and their families less powerful. These workers receive a smaller share of society’s resources than they once did and often have less control over their lives. Those lives are generally shorter and more likely to be affected by pollution and chronic health problems.

That chart is from 2 years ago but you can already see what these policies cost the average American in terms of years of their lives.  Americans now live 3-5 years less than the average human being in other developed parts of the World and this virus is going to make things so much worse.  The media has people so brain-washed and focused on triviatlities that it's unthinkable that America would ever focus on leading the World in "life expectancy" – it's not even a thing we usually discuss and that's because the 5 companies that control 90% of the media don't want you discussing it – so it's a non-topic.

mercenaryweyci16 funny“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”  Let's see how the last 3.5 years have been going:  Did Donald Trump fulfill Jefferson's dream?  Life is on the decline, both the life of the animals we share the planet with and now our citizens themselves are in danger.  Liberty?  Nope, we can't even leave the county anymore.  Trump has built a wall alright, it's a wall of travel bans from other countries who don't want disease-ridden Americans crossing their boarders.  Pursuit of happiness?  Well, I did win my Fortnite battle last night – that made me happy….

Tomorrow the markets are closed and we've been considering closing out our portfolios but there's likely to be one more round of stimulus into the elections.  The last $6.7Tn boosted Trump's polls for about 2 months but now he's back in the danger zone so we can expect them to pull out all the stops as we head towards Novemeber – only 4 months until the election now.  

5% of all the people who have had the Coronavirus are dead but half of those infected are still actively infected so it's very possible the death rate is closer to 10%.  Trump/Fox argues that "many" people are infected and don't even know it and, hopefully, that's the case.  About 10% of the population have coronavirus anti-bodies (not enough testing to be certain) so only 10% of those people are actually counted officially, which would drop the death rate to 1% – 3M Americans as this virus runs it's course.  Those are the dice the Trump Administration is rolling with our lives.  

Of course the virus may be seasonal, which means we'll have to learn to "live" with it – and life expectancy in the US will be trending lower for a very long time.

Have a great holiday,

- Phil

 


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  1. July 2nd, 2020 at 8:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    GM!

    All is well.  11.1% unemployment rate. Zoom Zoom!


  2. July 2nd, 2020 at 8:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good Morning!

    Phil / TSLA

    I saw the trade below about TSLA yesterday. TSLA is now @1218. I have uncovered $1100 calls. With such irrational buying frenzy in a week, what's the best thing to do? Just take the loss and move on?

    Also, I don't understand how you are linking the two orders – $900 Calls and $1250 Calls. What happens if TSLA goes to $1300? Are both orders open with even more loss?

    Thanks.

    In the STP, we sold 5 TSLA July $900 calls for $93.30 ($46,650) and they are now $230 ($115,000). That sucks but it's a $68,350 loss so that's what we focus on and we can sell 5 Sept $1,250 calls for $110 ($55,000) and we will set a stop on the $900 calls at $110, so that would be a roll of our losses (ish) – even if we choose not to DD or sell puts.   Hopefully, TSLA stops before $110, pulls back and they both expire worthless and we make $170,000 (vs STPs current $453,219). 


  3. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:02 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available! 

    https://youtu.be/-MQclCf0cJ8


  4. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:27 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good Morning.


  5. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Today I wish to comment on two different subjects, the one is Corona the second is trading especially for some of the new comers, who I see holding plenty of cash and dying to spend it.
    I see some of you members and parents are concerned about sending their children back to school.
    I can only repeat myself from my comments the other day look over the border and see what other countries are doing.
    I regret to say that in most parts of the US states the infection rate is gone out of control. So you need to decide for yourself what to do as the man who roles the country himself is out of control.
    I know it is very difficult for some but you take your life and your family’s life in your own hands.
    Still here in Spain as well in Germany, going out shopping I wear a mask as well as the plastic shield, try to keep distance when shopping, disinfect my hands and wear gloves, and no out eating, as they waiter makes contact with many people and the change he or she carries already the virus could be a possibility. I still can do my biking every day as I mostly can hold a distance to the next person, without wearing a mask cycling.
    In Germany, where they have the situation reasonable under control, Yesterday reported 492 people new infected, 9 new deaths, from 82 million people, one town or city  having more than 50 reported infections per week, will receive a lock down. I am concerned as countries opening borders and facilities and I am watching the infection graph. Seeing the reported infection graph of the US, I would be highly alerted. 50,000 per day on say 450million people is 0.01% per day against Germany 0.0006% per day!!!!!!
    Finally the virus is here as of the first day and can only be controlled by a suitable vaccine. So take it from here no more comments from me. I would hate to tell you I told you so.

    Now to the financial.
    As you know I started the option play with the so called " the armchair trade", where buying the stock and selling OTM, three or four month out, short options.
    By selling the call and put, if at expiration the call is ITM you can either roll or get your money back on the relevant strike price. However at today’s situation selling an OTM put is somewhat more risky, you really must make sure you would like the stock at the sold strike price.
    Some of my race horses (stocks) I am holding for years, and I know there are ups and downs.
    We need to differ between Leap BCS and stock.
    For my armchair I did only selected stocks paying a div. more than 3%. Due to their drop in value they pay now 6,8 and 10%. Obviously not any high div payer is a good stock; you need to research the fundamentals! Yes some of my stocks did drop March 19th up to 40%.

    The difference between stock and Leap BCS; the stock, besides bankrupt, has a non-limited lifetime. The leap BCS needs to be rolled if you wish to extend its life time. You wish to improve your stock position you can add more stock at the dip. Or even leave it as is.

    I take it like renting out a car, even if it is older, you still can rent it out. Obviously if you double the stock at the right dip time, you would have cut down half your losses today.  
    The nice thing about stock holding is you still can sell call options in respect of your stock holdings. However in respect of your BCS the devalued position has lost most of its value in respect of selling more call options. Any new call options sold will be charged with full margin.
    So rolling your long leap call will cost you extra money, leave it as it is, you probably find it will never recover to a reasonable ITM long call option within 2 years or what is left of the time value. You can soften your roll expense by selling more puts, but in many cases you fired already half you puts powder when sold the puts established at the original leap option play.
    I am with TOS and have PM margin, one thinks. I buy a stock, you think they would not deduct margin, not today mostly each stock I hold cost me 15%!!!!! Margin. Not to mention BCS and puts. Yes if I hold the stock and sell the same amount of calls against the stock, no margin charged. Same applies to Leap BCS provided the safe and ITM.  
    Depending in which country you live out of the US you pay 35% Tax on dividends. Mexico only 10% but only for US stocks, any other stock 35% Tax deduction. Do you hold an option with more than a 0.80 delta they deduct you tax of the div. just as if you holding the stock, even option pay no div.
    So looking for bargain stocks or new plays are more difficult than in normal times. If I look at any new stock play now, I check what its value was March 19 2020.
    Any other questions you welcome.


  6. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:32 am | Permalink Ignore this user


  7. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    There are no words left to describe the situation in the US anymore. Total dereliction of duty at so many levels. It's simply frightening.


  8. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:47 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Everything will drop to nothing… – POTUS


  9. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:47 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    One thing I forgot re. TOS, if you have a margin call they want the money today, however try to transfer some stock from one account to the other same broker takes them days if not more than a week!!!!


  10. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    …We're ventilator kings…


  11. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:49 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    ….blah blah blah….  :)


  12. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:50 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    I find it interesting as well that banks CANNOT buy back shares and have suspended the dividend payment to an amount that cannot hit their books.  So, what is good about that?

    LQDA….just sold more shares.  I think I noted them a year ago or so, as they have the same drug as UTHR (inhaled for PAH).  LQDA has a better dispersion technology for the drug, which yields fewer 'puffs' and administrations.  So, in essence the drug works, just need to get approval which should be in the next year.  Start small, sell front month calls to reduce costs.


  13. July 2nd, 2020 at 9:57 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil/virus

    Good morning!

    as relevant as your cause is, Phil, I think you are in the super small minority. This president has convinced the uninformed that we are doing well with the virus numbers…

    so, that leaves a stock market that wants to keep going up….so, let's learn to party and please put on more bullish trades?.. the ones from March are done. Why are we not buying TSLA and AMZN the past few weeks?


  14. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:00 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharm/What  My guess is the Fed wants banks to preserve $$$ for the coming sh*tstorm… :(


  15. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:13 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Maya1,
    Your comments amaze me not sure you serious?
    TSLA somewhat makes me think of the German firm Wirecard


  16. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:14 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    1020, nah, it is to pay the CEO more $$.  


  17. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    hi good morning


  18. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil, thanks for posting the watchlist yesterday. some good reading, but i tend to agree that most of the good trades are done already 


  19. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    hi Yodi, i used tos for many years but moved to ibkr. if you are paying for margin rates, are very low. although you need to pay for data. but overall i think may be a better deal depending on your portfolio 


  20. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:27 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    stuartcjones

    Thanks I looked at it but not as easy for foreigners


  21. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good morning!

    NFP was not bad so a bit encouraging but that's after dropping 20M so 3 months to get back to normal at this pace and, of course, we're shutting down a bit more again so more like 4-6 months is nothing to rally about but – well, it's the market…

    Jobless claims down a hair to 1.43M, now top 50M over fourteen weeks
    • Initial Jobless Claims: -55K to 1.427M vs. +1.400M consensus, 1.482M prior (revised from 1.480M).
    • Total job losses over the past fourteen weeks are now almost 50M, just above 30% of the U.S. workforce.
    • The four-week moving average is 1.504M, down 117K from the previous week.
    • The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remains unchanged at 13.2%.
    • Continuing claims are 19.290M up from 19.231M, higher than 19M consensus.
    Another jobs blowout – June payrolls up 4.8M, unemployment rate falls to 11.1%
    • June nonfarm payrolls: +4.800M vs. +3.00M consensus and +2.699M previous (revised from +2.5M).
    • Unemployment rate: 11.1% vs. 12.3% consensus and 13.3% previous.
    • Labor force participation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 61.5%; it's still 1.9 pp below its February level.
    • Says RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas: The bottom line is it's a "solid number of recalled workers." Still, with 31.49M people on some form of unemployment insurance, "Congress has to provide more policy support."
    • Reflects continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it.
    • Employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply.
    • Job gains also made in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.
    • Average hourly earnings fell by 35 cents to $29.37 in June. The decrease average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers, which puts downward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates.
    • The number of people working part time for economic reasons fell by 1.6M in June, but it's still more than double the February level.
    • The survey was taken the week of June 7-13, so the effecst of some states' actions in response to increased COVID-19 cases won't be reflected

    TSLA/SK – It depends on if you have the margin to keep going.  In the STP, for example, we're going to cash our original bull call spread and add a new one to cover it better.  You can also sell puts to offset the short calls as this is just a squeeze but who knows how hard they can squeeze?   TSLA is not AT $1,250 but it's close now but those short calls are 100% premium at the moment.  If you have short $1,100s, you can roll them and that adds no cost or margin as longer months pay much more.  

    This pattern is similar to February, when we had a crazy spike up but it was a few weeks before they came back down.  

    Good points Yodi.  I don't think people in this country really comprehend how out of control this is – especially compared to other civilized nations, who were able to control their outbreak quickly and efficiently WITHOUT spending $6.7Tn ineffectively.  It is a complete and total failure of leadership, yet the people just put up with it.  This is horrifying to live with! 

    And what StJ said!

    Good trading tips Yodi, thanks.

    3,135 on /ES again.  Nice short when we cross back under.

    LQDA/Pharm – I like that idea.

    Why/Maya – Because, as I said in the Webinar, I am not a momentum trader.  I'm not going to chase crap just because other people are.  Not that our TSLA play is any good but this too shall pass – no one expects +30% in a few days.


  22. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Toyota Motor North America sales down 26.7% in June
    • Toyota (TM +2.5%) global volume is off 29% for June.
    • Toyota Motor North America sales-26.7% to 148,280 units in June vs. -20.9% forecast by Edmunds
    • Q2 Toyota volume plunged 36% to 347,573 units and Lexus sales dropped 27% to 50,459 units.
    Ford Motor sales declined 33.3% in Q2
    • Ford Motor Company (F +2.5%) reports Q2 sales decline of 33.3% to 433,869 units, while retail was down much less than industry at 14.3%.
    • Ford brand units sales fell 33.9% and Lincoln brand slipped 18% for the quarter.
    • Cars sales -59.5%, SUVs -29.9% and Trucks sales -26.6%.
    • Daily rental was down 94%, while commercial was off 78%.
    • Press release
    Porsche U.S. retail sales fell 19.9% in Q2
    • Porsche (OTCPK:POAHF) unit sales declined 19.9% to 12,192 units in Q2.
    • 911 sales expanded 30.1% to 2,245 units.
    • 718 sales fell 68.3% to 472 units
    • Cayenne sales down 14.5% to 3,822 units.
    • Panamera sales squeezed 57.4% to 871 units.
    • Macan sales slipped 27.9% to 3,964 units.
    • Press release
    Kia Motors America sales down 15.7% in June
    • Kia Motors America (OTCPK:KIMTF) units sales dropped 15.7% to 47,870 in June.
    • YTD Kia sales down 13.6% to 263,337 units.
    • "Despite the pandemic, demand for Kia's world-class offerings such as the Telluride remains extraordinarily high. In fact, on a selling day adjusted basis, Kia's retail sales were up nearly 6-percent year-over-year," said Bill Peffer, vice president, sales operations, Kia Motors America. "Kia has once again topped the industry in initial quality and we are ready to begin the next chapter of our product story with the arrival of the all-new 2021 K5, which has been very well received by the media thus far, and consumers are already reaching out for details on future availability."

    Mortgage rates fall to new record low
    • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages 3.07% for the week ending July 2, down from 3.13% in the previous week and 3.75% at this time a year ago, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
    • That's the lowest rate in the survey's history dating back to 1971.
    • “Mortgage rates continue to slowly drift downward with a distinct possibility that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could dip below 3 percent later this year,” said Freddie Chief Economist Sam Khater.
    • 15-year FRM averages 2.56% vs. 2.595 in the previous week and 3.18% a year ago.
    • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage averages 3.00% vs. 3.08% in the prior week and 3.45% a year ago.
    • iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB) gains 2.6%. By name: D.R. Horton (DHI +2.2%), KB Home (KBH +3.0%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.7%), Toll Brothers (TOL +3.0%), Lennar (LEN +2.1%).
    Factory orders +8% in May
    • May Factory Orders: +8% vs. 8.9% consensus and -13.5% prior (revised).
    • Shipments +4.4%.
    • Unfilled orders +0.1%.
    American Airlines overstaffed by 20,000 for fall – CNBC
    • American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) says it's overstaffed by more than 20,000 employees for its reduced fall schedule, according to an internal note viewed by CNBC.
    • CEO Doug Parker: "We currently anticipate having 20 to 30% — or more than 20,000 — more team members on payroll than we need to operate our schedule this fall. To be clear, this doesn’t mean 20,000 of our team members will be furloughed in October, it simply means we still have to work to do to right-size our team for the airline we operate."
    • The airline, blocked from layoffs through September due to the government payroll support, is asking employees to take buyouts or early retirement
    • In other AAL news, American says it will adjust its long-haul international schedule for winter 2020 through summer 2021 due to the low demand. Summer 2021 capacity is expected to be down 25% Y/Y.
    • American will focus on markets offering "unique connectivity for customers."
    • View the new schedule here.
    • AAL shares are up 2.5% to $13.14
    Boeing, FAA complete 737 MAX certification test flights
    • Three days of certification test flights have been completed for Boeing's (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX, marking a key milestone toward the plane's return to service.
    • The FAA will now conduct a data review, and still must approve a pilot training program and other details before the jet can take to the skies.
    • "The agency is following a deliberate process and will take the time it needs to thoroughly review Boeing's work," according to the FAA. "We will lift the grounding order only after FAA safety experts are satisfied that the aircraft meets certification standards."
    • BA +1.2% premarket

  23. July 2nd, 2020 at 10:52 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharm/Phil – for LQDA how do you decide what strike to sell calls at? also how do you decide where to put your ask since the bid/ask spread is so wide on the calls

    thanks


  24. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:00 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    coulter…..I just bought the stock. 

    MEIP…I also bought stock in there.  Interesting pipeline.  Options are not attractive.


  25. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:06 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    LQDA – also sold July 10 calls for 25c.  If they are called away, yeah!  If not. Wash, rince, repeat.


  26. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:07 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Curious to hear the favorite hedge play to initiate today? Do you still like the same strikes on your TQQQ or SQQQ Phil?


  27. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:08 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharm

    Have you been following TTOO? Any thoughts on owning stocks in it as a long term play?


  28. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:10 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    LQDA/Coulter – Well they don't have good options to trade, very thin with wide margins so hard to work out.  I'd start by buying the stock for $8 and offering to sell the Jan $10 calls for $4 so you are in for net $4 and called away at 150% profit if over $10.  If you can sell Jan $5 puts for more than $2, that's also not bad with a net $3 entry.  As to short-term sales, I'd stick to a 1/4 sale of Aug $10s for maybe .075 at best, 0.50 least – still a lot of money against net $4.

    Hedge/JBiz – I think we should look at the STP anyway.


  29. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:10 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    /ES got our cross by the way – very tight stops if we go back over. 


  30. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yodi/TSLA/AMZN

    THAT was said 'tongue in cheek'. I have known Phil for 11 years and know how he invests.

    its just a little annoying  to see so much money being mad by the momo crowd.

    for me, I could not let AMZN go this am at$2950, up $70 today after being up $120 yesterday…so, I am shorting it since am


  31. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Probing the put price.  Not going for $1….so they mush be holding the price up.

    TTOO – seems to be playing the COVID story-line.  Diagnostic company.  Not really excited about them. 


  32. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:53 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Anyone up for a betting pool on how long Ghislaine Maxwell will live now that she's been arrested?


  33. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:55 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Snow – Pretty sure that's a loaded bet. LOL!


  34. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:57 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Her life expectancy has just been reduced I think! Of course, Covid is easy to catch in jail!


  35. July 2nd, 2020 at 12:30 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    PHIL/AAPL

    I’m half way rolled from my 5 AAPL $200 and 45 $240 ’22 longs to 45 $300 ’22 calls as suggested. Taken a while but working out well. Had to buy the $300s first, in at avg of $67 (now $96). Sold the $200s and some $240s on the way to finance the remaining $300s but I still have 15 uncovered ’22 $240s, now trading around $138, up from $104 when I started. I know you’re trying to keep my positions less complicated but am wondering if it would now be better to sell some short term calls against the $240s or is it better to just sell them and complete the roll?

    Also short -25 ’21 $320c ($44)

    -20 ’22 $350c ($36)

    -5 ’22 $200puts.

    THX


  36. July 2nd, 2020 at 1:03 pm | Permalink Ignore this user


  37. July 2nd, 2020 at 1:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Mask / Pharm – Now, it's simply a political message. Not wearing a mask to own the libs! That's what we are coming to in this country. Because Pelosi wears a mask, I'll make it a point not to wear one.


  38. July 2nd, 2020 at 1:45 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Stj

    As soon as most will accept the man is sick as sooner there will be a change


  39. July 2nd, 2020 at 1:57 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil

    I have 10 of the AAPL 2021 $195/230 spread, paid $21, now worth 30 out of possible $35.

    Stand to make $4.50 in 6 months.

    can I do better? Cash this out and put on another? Or cash out and wait for a pull back before putting on another?


  40. July 2nd, 2020 at 2:07 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Wheee, that was fun!  

    RUT still dragging but Nas still bouncy as ever.

    Maxwell/Snow:

    Let us all ask the magic 8-Ball if SC1 will get ROI ever. : siacoin

    AAPL/Wing – You're right, now is a great time to cover but please put down the entire position as I really can't keep track.

    AAPL/Maya – So deep in the money it's almost a sure thing.  Unless you need the cash, why bother?  I would not do anything today.  Should wait and see how things are post-holiday weekend.


  41. July 2nd, 2020 at 2:30 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Hedges/Phil

    Curious your analysis of the following trade:

    Long 10 SQQQ 4 Call

    Short 10 SQQQ 14 Call

    Short 5 SQQQ 9 Put

    I'm looking for about $10k of coverage


  42. July 2nd, 2020 at 3:08 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil/AAPL  Current AAPL holdings:

    15  '22 AAPL $240c ($49)

    45  '22 AAPL $300c ($67)

    -25  '21 AAPL $320c ($44)

    -20  '22 AAPL $350c ($36)

    -5  '22 AAPL $200p ($21)


  43. July 2nd, 2020 at 3:11 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil, I had a discussion with you about COVID in U.S. saying that they were in a better situation to deal with the virus because they had a different urban layout ( less compact that here in Europe or China) and they could act   with more knowledge after other countries experiences….I was wrong !  It’s amazing how America lost the opportunity of handling the problem with an almost unique solution
     

    However I don’t see a clear scenario about what will happen during the next 6 months, It looks like economy will move on whatever the cost and everything in played to have a vaccine In a short time, I must assume that Trump must have the best information about Vaccines that the rest of us.

    If a vaccine is announced before autumn the market will avoid the correction..and Trump re-election will be a real possibility I think that is his card and must have something We don’t know to support it.

    Here right now in France, and businesses are slow, tourism is quite easy and comfortable few foreigners around.


  44. July 2nd, 2020 at 3:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Short-Term Portfolio (STP) Review:  Just a quick update on the STP, which is down about $70,000 since our last review (thanks Tesla!).  We'll see if we feel good into the weekend:

    CANE – Coming back a bit.

    AAPL – No worries. 

    JPM – I thought we cashed them, we'll let's cash them out.

    TQQQ – It will make the long puts far more powerful if we take our $20,000 profit and cash in the short puts so let's do that into the weekend.  We can also spend $6.45 to roll the 2021 $90 puts ($16.30) to the 2021 $105 puts ($22.75).  This makes it an aggressive spread to cover us into the weekend.

    • CMG – On track but watching TSLA makes this scary.

    • SDS – Let's just buy back 50 of the short Jan $30 calls to get a bit more aggressive.  
    • SQQQ  – Le'ts buy back 50 of the short Jan $15 calls to get a bit more aggressive.  
    • TSLA – We took the loss in cash and we rolled the loss in the form of the $55,000 calls we sold.  So, if they expire worthless we get our cash back, at least.  The rolls are too expensive to bother with at the moment.  

    • UNG – I think it's a good bottom.

  45. July 2nd, 2020 at 4:02 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Randomly dated SQQQ/Jbiz – Well SQQQ is at $7 and $14 is up 100% so you need a 33% drop in the Nasdaq to hit it.  It's already $3 in the money but realistically the upside is $11.20 (7×1.6), not $14, so a bit less protection than you think.

    AAPL/Wing – Much better, thanks.  

    Really though, you have (still messy) 45 2022 $300/350 spread (assuming the roll on the short $320s) and 15 extra 2022 $240 calls with the 5 short puts.  I'd sell 5 Sept $360s for $23.50 ($14,100) and be happy for now, you can always sell more if they start faltering.  

    ROFL Advill!  "I must assume that Trump must have the best information about Vaccines that the rest of us."  That is too funny!!!  You can have all the information in the World but if you don't want to use it or can't understand it, what difference does it make.  I can take over the best research lab on the planet and put Trump in charge and do you think he'll have a virus cure?  Not a chance because the most dangerous person isn't the person who knows nothing but the person who thinks he knows everything and likes to tell "experts" they are wrong.

    There is no vaccine.  There are promising trials, there are always promising trials.  They are still 6 months away from any kind of distribution at best and at best is very unlikely.  Your plan to fight a pandemic can't be the same as your plan for the afterlife. 

     He Did Not Pray': Fallout Grows From Trump's Photo-Op At St ...

    Have a very happy holiday, 

    - Phil


  46. July 2nd, 2020 at 4:21 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Wait, can we plan for the afterlife?


  47. July 2nd, 2020 at 6:55 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    RE: ROFL Advill! James Fallows looks at the train wreck timeline we are in the middle of.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/


  48. July 2nd, 2020 at 8:01 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    The article is fascinating and really outlines where all the mistakes were made. Sheer incompetence and the need to destroy anything created by Obama is leading to the current catastrophe! There won't be any room left in that special place in hell for all these guys. 


  49. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

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  55. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Should we eat more like the Japanese?
    By: Veronique Greenwood


  56. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

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  61. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Trump plans huge July 4 fireworks show despite DC’s concerns
    By: ELLEN KNICKMEYER and ASHRAF KHALIL, Associated Press


  62. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    A True Economic Stimulus Plan
    By: Casey B. Mulligan, Stephen Moore


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  75. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:29 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    What Went Wrong In 1971
    By: Jan Nieuwenhuijs


  76. July 2nd, 2020 at 11:30 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

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  78. July 3rd, 2020 at 12:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    1. Americans rate CDC highly, Trump and his administration poorly on getting the facts right about COVID-19
    By: Amy Mitchell, Mark Jurkowitz, J. Baxter Oliphant and Elisa Shearer


  79. July 3rd, 2020 at 12:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  84. July 4th, 2020 at 6:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yesterday's tally:

    U.S. Case Rise 2.1% (4:10 p.m. NY)

    Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose by 57,271 from a day earlier to 2.77 million, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. The 2.1% increase was higher than the average daily increase of 1.8% over the past week. Fatalities rose 0.6% to 129,192.

    • New York reported 918 new coronavirus cases, up slightly from 875 the day before, but in line with the 0.2% seven-day average. The state reported 9 deaths. New total cases rose to 395,872.
    • Alabama posted 1,758 new cases and North Carolina 2,099 — both single-day records. There were 22 deaths in Alabama, for a total of 983. North Carolina reported one new death for a total of 1,392.
    • Florida reported a total 178,594 cases on Friday, up 5.6% from a day earlier, compared with an average increase of 5.8% in the previous seven days. Deaths among Florida residents reached 3,684, an increase of 1.9%.
    • Arizona reported 4,433 new cases on Friday, a 5.1% increase from the previous day and higher than the seven-day average of 4.7%. Total cases reached 91,858. The state reported 31 new deaths, down from a record 88 on Wednesday, putting the total at 1,788.
    • New Jersey reported 386 new cases, a 0.2% increase, bringing the total to 172,742, with 58 deaths for a toll of 13,308.

  85. July 4th, 2020 at 6:23 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    WHO Sees Scaling Up Vaccine as Key (12:30 p.m. NY time)

    Vaccines may show efficacy by the end of this year, but a key question will be whether the scale-up of production will allow mass vaccination to start by early 2021, Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergencies program, told reporters. “It would be unwise at this point to predict when a vaccine could be rolled out,” Ryan said.

    Gilead Drug Wins European Authorization (10:15 a.m. NY)

    Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir received conditional marketing authorization from the European Medicines Agency for treatment of the novel coronavirus in patients with pneumonia who are receiving supplemental oxygen.

    The drug, which will carry the brand name of Veklury, is cleared for treatment of adults and adolescent age 12 and older and weighing at least 40 kilograms (88 pounds), Foster City, California-based Gilead said in a statement. The authorization was based on a rolling review of supporting data that began in April 2020, the company said.

    Remdesivir is one of two drugs shown to fight the virus in robust clinical trials. The other is dexamethasone, a cheap, generic anti-inflammatory treatment that appears to damp an immune overreaction to the virus.

    Beijing Begins Easing Some Restrictions (4:45 p.m. HK)

    China’s capital announced the first easing of restrictions as infections that stemmed from an outbreak at its largest wholesale market appear to slow. Residents from areas that have been designated low risk will be able to leave the city without being tested for the virus from July 4, local authorities said. Those from medium and high risk areas will still face strict controls on travel, including 14-day quarantines in some provinces.

    Emerging Markets Turn Hotspot With 5 Million Cases (4:25 p.m. HK)

    The 26 nations classified as emerging markets at MSCI Inc. witnessed the single-biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases on Thursday. The addition of 116,644 infections took their combined total above 5 million, or 46% of global cases.


  86. July 4th, 2020 at 6:39 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    ECB’s Knot Warns Against Creating Another ‘Central Bank Put’.

    World’s Largest Pension Fund Loses $165 Billion in Worst Quarter.

    Experts fear the end of eviction moratoriums could plunge thousands of people into homelessness.

    The CEO of a major advertising trade group says the Facebook boycott is a turning point.

    Senate Republicans cool to 2nd round of stimulus checks, direct deposits.

    By the way, did I ever tell you guys that I'm banned from Fox?  This is what happens when I click on any Foxnews article:

    Access Denied

    You don't have permission to access "http://www.foxnews.com/us/ghislaine-maxwell-rape-testify-evil-epstein" on this server.

    Reference #18.26ae3b17.1593858607.1ef062ec

    That's what you get for criticizing them, I guess…

    Tucker 2024? Growing Chorus Of Republicans Want Fox Host To Run For President.

    Supertanker Rates Collapse: "The Dam Has Burst".

    US Auto Sales Plunged In Q2 With GM, Toyota, & Fiat Suffering 30% Drops In Sales.

    Ghislaine Maxwell "Knows Everything" And "Will Be Naming Names", Former Epstein Associate Says. 

    Britain Joins EU In Placing Restrictions On American Travelers As US Posts Another Daily COVID-19 Record: Live Updates.

    San Francisco Rent Drops Most On Record As People Flee For Suburbs.

    Judge Orders Jeffrey Epstein Accuser To Destroy Files.

    Celente: "If We Don't Restore Freedom, America Is Dead".

    Instacart raises another $100 million in funding to expand further during the US online grocery boom.

    ‘A Global Tragedy’: Think Tanks in 39 Countries Denounce Hong Kong Security Law, Call for International Response.

    Goldman Sachs says global oil demand won't rebound to pre-coronavirus crisis levels until at least 2022.


  87. July 4th, 2020 at 9:50 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Fox / Phil – Looks like a tech glitch to me. That article is no longer available. On the other hand, I am sure that the Fox audience would not be curious to hear what Mrs. Maxwell has on DJT! She must have some interesting notes.


  88. July 4th, 2020 at 10:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    UBER- would like to hear your take on these guys. I had essentially dismissed them as a glorified taxi dispather but as I dug in further I am thinking there may be more to them down the road. Financial issues aside (which are now on the front burner and can be fixed) UBER has established a rather remarkable worldwide network with a number of opportunities. Especially intriguiging in the  AI/Self driving space. All very speculative for sure but? 


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  111. July 5th, 2020 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Trump Is a Traitor | The Smirking Chimp
    By: Lucian K. Truscott IV


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  127. July 5th, 2020 at 12:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Crunch, crunch: Africa’s locust outbreak is far from over
    By: KHALED KAZZIHA and CARA ANNA, Associated Press


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  142. July 5th, 2020 at 4:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Has the IRS hit bottom?
    By: Paul Kiel


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