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22M Tuesday – Global Infections March On

21,913,816.

It's hard to believe we are living through the 2nd worst pandemic since the Black Plague (so far) and the stock market is at an all-time high.  774,682 people are dead (so far) and we're adding 300,000 cases per day around the World and 500 people PER DAY are dying in America from this virus.  Remember when 4,000 people died on September 11th, 2001?  Sure you do. 

We're about to mark the 19th anniversary of that tragedy in 3 weeks and over 10,000 Americans WILL DIE between now and then.  The whole nation took action when 9/11 happened to prevent additional deaths, now we seem to have simply lost all sense of proportion in this tragedy and we've certainly lost the will to act.  We're even sending our children back to school without having taken any sort of reasonable action to keep them safe.

Of course this is a crisis of leadership, the Democrats did a good job of laying that out at their convention yet there's about 40% of this country that will never be convinced.  We've developed herd immunity to idiocy and now it washes over us like the tide – there's little we can do to stop it anymore, so we just learn to live with it.

No one is outraged, no one is doing anything about it, we just accept this incompletent Government and the deaths of our friends and neighbors as if that's just "one of those things" – even though 95% of the countries in this World have made huge progress getting their infections under control, the US, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico and Columbia are all now in the 500,000 case club – though none are close to America's 5.44M infections, despite India having 5 times our population.  

China STILL has under 90,000 cases.  They had over 80,000 back in March, when we had only 5 and, since then, they've only had 10% more cases while the US has had 100,088,000,000% more.  China was already showing the World how to contain the virus and most of the World paid attention and listened.  We essentially did the opposite and now 170,559 American's are dead and that's on this President and his enablers, not on the virus.  It's the same virus that hit every other country on this planet yet only a dozen of them have failed to handle it and yes, Trump is their King!

On May 25th, there were 18,000 new cases in the US as many states rushed to re-open, under the encouragement of the Trump Administration and the Republican Congresspeople and Governors we entrust with the lives of our families.  On June 25th, we were hitting 40,000 new cases per day and despite re-closing in most states, we're still at that level.

Sending the kids back to school where they will mix with hundreds of other kids and then go home to infect their families who will then go to work and infect their co-workers, who will then infect their children who will go to school and infect others is, very possibly, the worst idea in the history of human-kind.  Yet we're doing it, aren't we?  

You can see right on that chart that re-opening caused a disaster and that was without large gatherings of people – that was just with bars and restaurants, etc.  This is re-opening and putting 50M children (17% of our population) into small buildings with poor air ciruclation under conditions that make it impossible for them to maintain social distancing and we're doing it without providing the funding or equipment to make for a safer learning environment.  Are we really going to be surprised at the result?  

Trump washes his hands of more than germs - The Boston GlobeIs it possible that Team Trump DOESN'T know what will happen?  The can't possibly be that stupid, can they?   The only semi-logical explanation is that they WANT to infect the whole country – they want us to develop herd immunity because there is no vaccine likely to be available and if only 10% of our nation is infected when Joe Biden takes office – it will still be realistic to lock the country down to control the virus but that would be bad for business so the "plan" is to have so many people infected that there will no longer be a point to locking the country down and President Biden will be forced to ride it out and then the GOP can campaign in 2022 on what a terrrible job Joe did of containing the virus and yes, the voters ARE that stupid!  

Allowing the exponential spread of the disease will eventually make protecting the vulnerable an impossible task. All our islands of safety for the ill and elderly are endangered when the sea level of infection rapidly rises. Many Americans simply don’t understand what exponential growth means. Five million infections can quickly bloom to 25 million infections, and higher. Even with a relatively low fatality rate, this could easily leave more than half a million Americans dead.

New Yorker coronavirus cover shows Trump with a mask over his eyes ...Contrary to what the President tells us, young people are not "immune" from the disease.  Following Covid-19’s assault on the body, a significant number of younger people end up with long-term health complications. One doctor says that 40-year-old patients he has treated sometimes end up climbing stairs like wheezing senior citizens. Researchers warn of lingering damage to the brain. President Trump’s claim that 99 percent of Covid-19 cases are “totally harmless” is a cruel lie.

The successful control of infectious disease – using bed nets against malaria, adhering to AIDS medications, social distancing to inhibit the spread of the novel coronavirus - is ultimately a matter of individual behavior. Successful attempts to improve such behavior on a large scale require a consistent message from all the commanding heights of a culture - the medical profession, the government, the church and the media.

We need new leadership, plain and simple.

It's up to you to demand it.

 

 


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  1. Amid outcry, postmaster general to testify before House




  2. TOS running subpar..again.


  3. Good Morning

    TOS a mess again


  4. Savi….yep


  5. Phil / SQQQ hedges

    Good morning ! What positions should we enter into for the SQQQ hedges?


  6. Good morning!  

    TSLA $1.900 today  – will we go for $2,000?  why not, it was $1,400 last week, no sense in waiting too long to pop 50%…

    /NG is flying too.

    More hurricanes coming.

    Remember when we bought Sugar at $10?

    The theme is that money is becoming worthless more than anything good is happening.

    You have to have stocks because your money is losing all it's buying power. 

    Zimbabwe's Hyperinflation: How the former breadbasket of Africa ...

    Our future…


  7. TOS freezeup in effect again…..this is total crap


  8. Good Morning?


  9. What other brokerages do folks use here?  Might need to double up or something.


  10. good morning


  11. i use ib. never have a problem and all done on iphone.  excellent margin rates


  12. Tech-fuelled ‘everything’s awesome’ rally looks unstoppable



  13. Tesla shares rally for no reason


  14. surprise

    How are Gold and Money Supply Related?


  15. Good morning!

    I'm telling you, ToS freezing up often happens right before major crashes.  

    SQQQ/Jij – Not sure, now my ToS is very slow too.


  16. Phil/freezing – perfect timing for that to happen! LOL!  


  17. Phil / SQQQ

    I am using Schwab, no issues but they don't have the pricing for the new SQQQ options


  18. Interesting that they force people out of SQQQ, shut down ToS and then crash the index?  How coincidental…


  19. ToS – Hmm. Well, Schwab is acquiring TD Ameritrade, which acquired ToS in 2009. Rumor has it that there is a new platform in the works, and we'll all welcome it with open arms after the crashes and slowdowns with ToS. Or am I being to cynical too think TDA or Schwab might be doing this delberately…….


  20. Gold/Pharm – Who could have seen that coming?

     

    Announcing Our 2020 Trade Of The Year!

    After due consideration I'm going to go with Barrick Gold (GOLD), who recently merged with Rangold (was GOLD) back in March and, spun off underperforming assets last Q which left them with an average production cost of $984/oz – still much higher than GOLD used to be at before the merger. We can trust Barrick Management to keep pushing those costs down while Gold (/YG) itself has jumped to an average selling price of $1,476/oz and the spread between the two is where gold miners make their money and GOLD is on pace to sell over 5M ounces of it next year – along wtih 400M pounds of Copper (/HG), which is costing them around $2.75 to pull out of the ground and is selling for about $2.65 at the moment (China again).

     
     
    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 12,527 10,239 9,029 8,558 8,374 7,243 8,738 9,755 11,046 -10.4%
    Operating Profit $m -8,909 -1,868 -2,350 2,424 3,311 279 3,885      
    Net Profit $m -10,366 -2,907 -2,838 655 1,438 -1,545 1,385 975.6 1,656  
    EPS Reported $ -9.65 -2.50 -2.44 0.56 0.94 -1.32 0.45      
    EPS Normalised $ -1.45 -0.16 -0.20 0.61 0.63 -0.63 0.35 0.52 0.81  
    EPS Growth %         +2.9   +7,394   +55.4  
    PE Ratio x           n/a 47.4 31.6 20.3  
    PEG x           n/a n/a 0.57 n/a
    Profitability

    It has been lower and may be lower again but the ongoing global uncertainty could push Gold (/YG) while a trade deal with China can get copper back closer to $3, making profits on that side of the mine as well. If it were just about the business, GOLD would not be our stock of the year but it's also about what kind of trade we can set up and how certain we are it will pay off and here's where GOLD shines. Our Trade of the Year will be:

    • Sell 15 GOLD 2022 $17 puts for $3.50 ($5,250)
    • Buy 30 GOLD 2022 $13 calls for $5 ($15,000)
    • Sell 30 GOLD 2022 $17 calls for $3 ($9,000)

    The net cash outlay on the spread is $750 and it pays $12,000 if GOLD is over $17 in Jan of 2022 for a profit of $11,250 (1,500%). The ordinary margin requirement on the 15 short puts is $4,971.75 so it's a very efficient way to make $11,250. The worst-case scenario is you are assigned 1,500 shares of GOLD at $17 plus the 0.50/share loss from the $750 outlay so $17.50 is not much worse then the $16.44 you'd have to pay now to buy the shares yet you only need it to stay flat to make $11,250 – seems like a good deal to me

    Meanwhile, live impeachment hearings begin today and Powell speaks to Congress and who knows what's going on with trade but I have serious doubts.


  21. Well, you go me there Phil….who? 


  22. If only there was a website that you could access daily containing a combination of political commentary with sound financial trade ideas to help you manage your money.

    oh well … back to the drawing board ;-)

    CAR!


  23. Do you heat that sucking sound?  That's the premium from all those options…..


  24. Phil:  Your opening article today regarding the coronavirus was eloquent and extremely well-formulated.  I've sent it around to a lot of people.  Thank you.


  25. Phil, are you feeling brave enough to short up here??  /ES at the highs.


  26. How has nobody posted about this yet today?

    https://apnews.com/5e833a62e9492f6a66624b7920cc846a

    "

    The report, the fifth and final one from the Republican-led Senate intelligence committee on the Russia investigation, describes how Russia launched an aggressive, wide-ranging effort to interfere in the election on Donald Trump’s behalf. It says Trump associates were eager to exploit the Kremlin’s aid, particularly by maximizing the impact of the disclosure of Democratic emails that were hacked by Russian military intelligence officers.

    The conclusions mark the culmination of a bipartisan probe that spanned more than three years and produced what the committee called “the most comprehensive description to date of Russia’s activities and the threat they posed.”"

    Not that any of this is particular news outside of the bipartisan nature of the probe.  I'm somewhat shocked that this hasn't seen more light in the news???


  27. Phil, I entered this position as a pretty basic hedge. It isn't performing well but then again it shouldn't with the market where it is. Any thoughts on taking any action on it or stay the course?

    Buy 20 Mar 21 SDS $15 Call for $3.55 

    Sell 20 Mar 21 SDS $28 Call for a credit of $1.00


  28. TOS is up -  for now 


  29. Now I can't get ToS up at all!

    Thanks John.  I hate to keep bringing it up but I get the feeling people are just ignoring it and they shouldn't be. 

    /ES/Jeff – I do have a /YM short on (I think – who can tell?) so sure, /ES too.  

    Russia/JPH – Who can worry about that these days?  All part of the plan, we are endlessly distracted.  

    SDS/Swamp – Well you are at the money and you do have time and SDS is at $16 and a 2x ETF so a 20% drop gives you 1.4x 16 = $22.40 which would be $7.40+ so it's perfectly good protection for now.  The March calls held their value so nothing to buy back – just let it ride, I think.

    ToS/Pstas – Super slow.  They messed up this latest update badly it seems.


  30. Phil:  Do you have a suggestion for replacing the SQQQ hedge?  For now, it seems like the SQQQ 20/100 series is liquid.  Are they likely to replace that in a few days to reflect the reverse split, or to just leave the 20/100s in place as the primary SQQQ vehicle?


  31. SQQQ: That's weird that TOS doesn't have the new vehicle yet. My tastyworks account has them.


  32. Thanks for the heads up Daveo.


  33. Phil / SDS – is this being split like SQQQ?


  34. SQQQ/John – I'm waiting for the new positions to be published.   I see them on TOS (now working) but the numbers don't make sense so I would not pull the trigger on those.  

    TQQQ makes a nice replacement as it's at $136 and it's a 3x ultra-long so a 20% drop in the Nas would be a 60% drop in TQQQ – all the way to $54.40.  The Jan $135 ($27.20)/90 ($10.20) bear put spread is net $17 and pays $45 or the $100 ($13.20)/70 ($5.60) bear put spread is net $6.60 and pays $30 – either one of those is good protection if you don't have enough.

    SDS/Batman – Not that I know of.


  35. I missed a really nice gain while TOS wasn't working.

    That's OK, I've had this since last week and I didn't take it on Friday so I probably wouldn't have done it today (though I did regret Friday).  


  36. Donald Trump’s fawning letters with strongman Vladimir Putin revealed