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Which Way Wednesday – Trump Cancels Christmas

No Soup For You GIFs | TenorNo stimulus for you!

President Trump returned from the hospital yesterday and decided to cancel the stimulus negotiations despite the constant cries from the Fed that the Government NEEDS to do something to get the economy back on track.  Trump doesn't want to add to his deficit total, which will be about $4,000,000,000,000 this year, and his score is, of course, far more important than helping the people who elected him, right?

Trump did say he wants the Fed to cut rates a full point (to -0.75%?) and double down on QE as those are off the books measures that would work out very well for a Real Estate Tycoon who's about to be kicked back into the private sector. 

After getting blowback all night on stopping the stimulus talks, Trump tweeted at 10pm that he would sign a bill for stimulus checks and another tweet that Congress should approve $25Bn for Airlines and $135Bn for a Paycheck Protection program so, of course, after cancelling the negotiations to provide stimulus he can now claim he is trying to get more stimulus.  When do we get to vote him out?   Twitter responded: 

He's clearly spooked about Tuesday's stock market crash and sees that the Dow futures look ugly too, so naturally he's doing an about face and panic tweeting late into the night.

WHAT???? Bail out BIG BUSINESSES while AMERICANS ARE LOSING THEIR HOMES AND STANDING IN FOOD LINES!!!! BTW, that bs before, that you claimed was for small business was absolute bs! Larger businesses got it!!!

Airline payroll? Why not the 30 plus unemployed Americans who have been waiting on a real bill to pass since July? WTF Donald! Why Airlines first? Oh never mind That's right it's YOU who takes a personal hit if the airlines are unemployed………….

Walking away from the coronavirus relief talks just to shout on Twitter about your own agenda is something I’d expect a toddler to do. You’re the President of the United States. The American people are suffering. Yet you choose to play politics to benefit yourself. That’s crazy.

ImageStill, it's very easy (and profitable) to manipulate the markets, especially when you are the President and Trumps Tweets had their desired effect, getting the S&P Futures (/ES) off the 3,320 line and back up to 3,375 this morning.  Twitter reacted to that too:

Thanks Donnie. I don’t know what else you might tweet tonight, but keep it pumping. Or dumping. I’ll follow the flow regardless.

That's what we're doing at PSW, just going with the flow.  We have some longs, we have some shorts and we try to keep things balanced while we wait PATIENTLY for the premium on the options we sold to decay.  Last week, on the 28th, our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) was at $460,952 and our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) was at $982,958 for a $1,443,910 total and, after yesterday's little dip, the STP is at $515,577 and the LTP is at $1,005,650, for a $1,521,227 total so we're UP $73,254 (5%) on that little correction – I'd say we're very welll-situated at the moment!

As anticipated in our last STP Review, we got back to even on our short TSLA calls so we thankfully exited half of those to remove some of the volatility of that position going forward.  Those short calls are $84 and we certainly don't see TLSA being over $464 in January but – just in case, we're playing it a bit safer as it's been painful watching this portfolio go up and down based on that one stock.  We need to be more sure about our hedges in these very volatile times ahead.

 


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  1. Good morning


  2. i played some SPY weekly puts right as the tweet broke yesterday and left it on overnight… should have have considered he would walk it back.  Hopefully i can get out without giving up too much gain.  Or does it go down again?!



  3. Hello, I sent some question but I can not see it. Phil did you see it? Tks

     

     




  4. 5 things to look for in tonight’s vice presidential debate



  5. I just don't know how we can even plan anything when Trump cancels negotiations in the afternoon and when he woke up from his steroids induced raged, noticed the market hit and was back on the Twitter machine! And proding Pelosi to act when in fact, she had been making proposals for a plan that the Senate and Trump rejected.

    It's simply insane!


  6. Yep insane is the word.


  7. Good Morning, Everyone!!

    Here is the link for today's webinar.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3473180620904310540


  8. Good Morning.


  9. Good morning!

    If there was any doubt this market was all about stimulus, that's over now.

    Fed Chief Warns of Doing Too Little

    We get the minutes today at 2pm

    SPY/Monk – Greed kills.

    Question/Marcel – Welcome, by the way.  No, your comment did not show up.  I see a blank space above from your previous comment.

    Big Chart – Well we held those support lines, which makes them stronger.  20-days crossing below the 50dma is short-term bearish and the NYSE's 200 dma is downtrending – that can be catastrophic if we break below it and bend the 50 dma downward – then it's all cash and gold for the duration! 

    Insane is right.


  10. The Lincoln Project clip won't be the last time we'll see the production – that is, tdumps triumphant arrival at the White House.

     

    It was like the best evah opening to the best Apprentice episode…Evah!  


  11. My spell check suggested tdumps correct spelling for his last name…

     

    I thought that was :)


  12. I trust sum of you did read my comments on ABBV and hope you caught the stock at 85.54 due to the clowns capritchase.
    Again not wishing to spend the money on the stock and still make up on the div. you can sell the further out or leap put, but as I said you do not receive any div. nor you are able to sell any short term covered calls. In my comments of yesterday, by buying the stock you can have a long run of selling calls and collecting div. in addition of selling the leap put.


  13. Mr.Phil, 

    Please, I need your help. I am seeing that you always have a creative arsenal of solutions for difficult situations. I was surprised by this action by AYX where fraud was suspected. it suddenly dropped more than 40%

    Now with the news of the change of the CEO, the action gained strength. My position is as follows:

    Trade Details

    Cost Basis

      Sell 10 contracts of AYX 2022 21-JAN 150.00 CALL

    @

    $22.50

    ($22,500.00)

      Sell 5 contracts of AYX 2022 21-JAN 150.00 PUT

    @

    $32.40

    ($16,200.00)

      Sell 10 contracts of AYX 2022 21-JAN 160.00 CALL

    @

    $14.00

    ($14,000.00)

      Buy 5 contracts of AYX 2020 20-NOV 160.00 CALL

    @

    $1.60

    $800.00

      Sell 5 contracts of AYX 2022 21-JAN 100.00 PUT

    @

    $15.00

    ($7,500.00)

      Buy 5 contracts of AYX 2020 16-OCT 160.00 CALL

    @

    $1.22

    $610.00

      Buy 500 shares of AYX (Alteryx Inc.)

    @

    $145.64

    $72,820.00

    Current Stock Price  :

    $145.96

    Total Cost:

    $14,030.00


  14. Sorry I dont know why my message break many times…sorry


  15. Marcell 55 I do not wish to venture in answering your play question but as you outlay your holdings it looks like you hold 500 stock and 10 oct and nov20  combined long calls, which are really worthless. But you sold against a shorter month long call Jan 22 short calls? and these are 20 short calls against 500 stock, and the worthless Oct anf Nov 10 long calls? Not even including these Oct and Nov calls you really naked 15 leap short callers against your 500 stock is this right? The puts are a different thing which could be still OK but remember they are all naked.


  16. good read on solar / renewable energy

    Bill Gross, 1990s Dotcom Trailblazer, Is Now Betting on Green Energy 

    Swapping software for solar, investor sees similarities but also bigger challenges

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-gross-1990s-dotcom-trailblazer-is-now-betting-on-green-energy-11601989201?mod=djem_WealthJournal


  17. TAN has moved over 30% since the debate…..


  18. AT&T – They need to divest, but divesting now is not good timing …. I was hoping they could get at lest 20B for this…..  I tell you…. great companies run by mediocre management.

    AT&T pushes forward with DirecTV sale, though bids are low – report

    AT&T (NYSE:T) is moving forward with plans for an auction of DirecTV, the New York Post says, even though a first round drew bids less than a third of what the telecom giant paid for the satellite broadcaster five years ago.

    A handful of suitors has been invited to a second round of bidding, though the opening figures came in around 3.5 times EBITDA of about $4.5B – implying valuation of about $15.75B, the Post reports.

    AT&T paid $49B (and assumed $18B in debt) for DirecTV in 2015.

    And Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) reportedly isn't taking part in the bidding, though it was linked to a potential combination with DirecTV before.

    That leaves private-equity firms (reportedly including Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO)) who might try to see what can be squeezed out of the declining video service.


  19. Thanks Yodi, I know I made mistake because with sundelly drop I sold 20 calls to collect if coninue to drop. Yes I naked but I can buy stocks to cover 15 calls. I am interesting to see any kind of creative solution in order to feel more comfortable. Thanks for your comments.


  20. Marcell well at least I got this right. But I leave this magic to our guru.


  21. AYX/Marcel – While we do have fixes, they are not magic.  

    • Sold 10 2022 $150 calls for $22.50 ($22,500)
    • Sold 10 2022 $160 calls for $14 ($14,000) 
    • Sold 5 2022 $150 puts for $32.40 ($16,200)
    • Sold 5 Jan $100.00 puts for $15 ($7,500)
    • Bought 5 Nov $160.00 calls for $1.22 ($610) 
    • Bough 5 Oct 160.00 calls for $1.22 ($610) 
    • Bought 500 shares at $145.64 ($72,820) 

    Yikes, what a mess.  Are you bullish or bearish or what?  

    It's already 1pm so WEBINAR time, I'll try to fix it then….

    Webinar time!

     


  22. The webinar link is good, Ignore the title. It did not updte


  23. Marcell me again I looked at the stock, it has no div. payments so holding stock with little or no div. is only good when you expect a very good capital grouth. I would close all calls as well as the stock and leave the puts in the hope they run in to worthless. this operation would leave you with a prox. credit of 7960.00. So your loss would be only about 7k.

    Possible Phil might set up some what a BCS with the cash, but I would like to look for a some more solid stock.


  24. Phil, I have a fair number of 2022 UNG $13, $15 and $16 puts, which I originally sold when UNG was much higher to pay for some hedges.  There is so much premium left in the puts that I am waiting for it to dissipate before I roll them down to the 2023s.  It will not cost me any additional margin to sell monthly $16  calls against these.  I can earn .25 per month without too much trouble, which would be extra income.  I don't see UNG going to 16 any time soon, especially in this Covid and economically challenged world. Is there any flaw in my thinking?  ( I am aware that I can roll the puts down to a lower strike by selling 2X or 3X but I don't want to allot any more margin to this position right now.)


  25. Phil, thanks for your attention with AYX. Can you write what you suggested to do or think…I did not understand well. Thanks


  26. Yodi, I did not understand your calculations. If I close all Calls now I will lose near 30k. 

    I thought I'd keep going until I saw if the stock would go up and buy 1500 more shares to be covered. I keep the call premiums. If I fall, I will have the possibility that the call premiums will decrease and so I can get out of them. I get off the paper and am prepared to roll the 150 put to improve the cost if exercised. What do you think?


  27. Marcell when you close all call options and sell the stock you will show a credit of 7960.00.  If you have TOS set all positions on the trade tab and add the debit and credit. you will be left with the above sum, possible changes slitly as prices change.


  28. Yodi are we see some trades? For example, sold 150 Call for 22.50 and now is 37.00 = (- 14.500)  -  sold call 160 for 14.00 and now is 33.00 =(- 19.000) so just these calls are losing 33.500…So where did you see credit of 7960,00 ?? Tks


  29. I closed my platform but yes you correct with the calls but you sell the 500 stock and the long calls and you will get the difference


  30. OK, so everything is awesome again in the markets, back to where we were yesterday and we'll see who says something next.

    AYX/Marcel – I mentioned in the webinar, I'd cash the shares ($72,000) and then set up a spread to cover the short calls like 30 2023 $140 ($53)/$170 ($42) bull call spreads at $11 ($33,000) so you have great coverage and you can put a stop on the short $150s ($36) at $40, $42 and $44 so you'd average out at $44 for a $20 loss but that's only $7 per long spread as it goes up and then you can roll the rest along.

    And what Yodi said.

    UNG/John – Good plan I think but UNG does tend to decay so just make sure you're making enough back to be worth holding on.  Basically, you own the stock at $15 (less what you collected) so no harm in selling Jan $15 calls for 0.90 and let's say you have 30 short puts at $15 avg and that's $45,000 then collecting $900 (10 short calls) for 100 days is 2% per quarter(ish) return but if you sell 10 April whatevers in 50 days or less, you created a quicker cycle and bump up to 4% per Q, which is certainly acceptable. 


  31. Tump took the 'cure'. Gotta love how that obnoxious lunatic just plays the markets like a two dollar banjo. 




  32. Analysis: Here’s how you know Donald Trump is panicking about the 2020 election



  33. Report: More than 100,000 low-income California college students lack internet access