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3,000 Death Thursday – It’s Like 9/11 Every Day!

3,157 Americans were killed yesterday.

Not so much by a virus but by incompetence and lack of caring and deriliction of duty.  We are THE WORST IN THE WOLRD in infections and death rate and no, America doesn't have some special brand of the virus – we just have a special brand of leadership that puts their own interests ahead of the country's because, as Trump says – he's immune.   

Immune from suffering because he can afford the best doctors for himself and his family – he even has access to treatments that are not even legal for the rest of us.  He's also immune from compassion – we've seen that and now he appears to be immune from prosecution as he's trading pardons for cash and other favors.  All this while 1 American Citizen dies every additional minute he spends not doing something about the virus.  

And this is nothing as 200,070 additional Americans were infected yesterday and 100,000 of us are in the hospitals with yes, 3% of those people dying daily.  Higher case count leads to more hospitalizations which leads to more deaths – who would have imagined, right?  Health experts project the number will continue to climb, as Thanksgiving gatherings are expected to have accelerated the rampant spread of the virus this fall. Another metric suggests deaths could surge by mid-December.

100+ Ti ideas | disney art, disney drawings, disneyNew Covid-19 hospitalizations follow new coronavirus cases, typically within a few weeks. Soaring cases nationally have accelerated beyond public-health agencies' ability to rein in contagion by tracking infections to head off further spread, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist who leads the Johns Hopkins University Covid-19 Testing Insights Initiative.

I hate to be that guy but this is a total catastrophe and, like some sort of cartoon villain President, Trump is STILL ignoring the virus and the Senate is STILL blocking stimulus – even as the Democrats have capituated and said they will accept less than HALF of the $2.4Tn they were looking for.  Why won't the Senate pass the bill?  Because it won't help Trump, it would only help Biden so they don't give a crap.  

Funding for State and Local Governments to fight the virus is out of the GOP bill (because then Biden might be credited with getting the virus under control down the road and they don't want that) and funding for Food Stamps has been completely cut out by the Republicans.  Not reduced – cut out.  Even $900Bn is the "compormise bill" that most Republicans aren't backing.  The office Senate Republican proposal is for $519Bn, mostly more money for "small business" and legal protection for Big Business so they can't be held liable for forcing their employees to work in unsafe conditions.  

If this were ancient Egypt the Republicans would address the plagues by buying better whips for the overseers and handing out tax breaks for pyramids.  

The market’s mood to justify the rise is to assume every-thing is golden – any old stock with any kind of improbable prospects is suddenly a potential winner as we “rotate” into fundamental stocks producing real income, and stocks trashed by Covid which will Phoenix-like fly (or float) again. To my jaundiced eye… it all looks very bubblicious. What is really going on in Stocks?

Ask a bull and they will tell you underlying stock strength is due to the vaccines, the end of the pandemic on the horizon, repressed consumer spending, the likelihood of ongoing global stimulus, and that momentum means stocks are going higher. 

Ask a bear and they will quote you the Peculiar Madness of Crowds, the unsustainability and froth, rising debt, risks and bubble conditions. 

Ask a realist who actually understands markets, and they will agree with elements of both perspectives, but explain the real issue is the long-term distortion on prices caused by ultralow rates and ongoing policy implications. Too much money chasing too few assets (exactly the situation in stocks) will always push up prices. We’ve come to accept runaway stock prices despite the current pandemic recession. It’s called Financial Asset Stagflation! The reality is market distortions are the dominant force driving stock prices higher… and that’s difficult to accept when you believe stocks represent fundamental value at these levels.

As I noted in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar: Stocks are massively overvalued. Bonds are massively overpriced. But they are likely to remain there for a while yet because of ongoing policy distortions.  As noted by Zero Hedge:

The laws of financial gravity are immutable. There is a relationship between global wealth, growth and the value of stocks and bonds (financial assets.) There is balance that sets risk/reward returns. These are all out of sync at present – stock market values are out of all proportion to global growth prospects, while investors are now being forced to accept ever greater risks for lower returns.  Distortions can only last so long before reality bites and overcomes – often violently.  

Central banks, QE infinity, government stimulus and ultra-low rates are pump priming the “Bubble Triangle”. It’s at its clearest in the peculiar price madness around stocks like Tesla and the confabulation that is Bitcoin, but the whole market is heading towards an ecstatic bubble dénouement. 

Market behaviour is a curious thing. The market responds predictably to the stimuli it receives. The forces that make demand for a commodity or a financial asset go up and down are understandable: you can predict how much copper wire will likely be needed and you how much is available; demand and supply. You trust the authorities to regulate the market to ensure it is honest, transparent and fair.

But you can’t rationalise the psychology and behaviour of crowds to these stimuli. Economists have tried to rationalise expectations – it doesn’t work. The madness of investors is infinitely surprising. Markets are not rational – the are reflections of beliefs driven not by uncommon common sense, but largely by the hope of returns and profits. (The level of hope tends to move inversely to the strength of the economy.) As I’ve written so many times.. Hope is never a Strategy. 

We have a whole host of factors fuelling bubbles at present:

1) The belief markets will be kept indefinitely high by central bank and government distortion, 

2) The belief that tech stocks are changing the narrative – bubbles always thrive in times of invention and innovation that nurture hopes of extraordinary future profits. 

3) The surge of new participants into stocks – not just the retail “RobinHoods” but also professional and institutional investors being forced into more risk market niches. 

There is a great new book Boom & Bust; a global history of financial bubbles, which describes the Bubble Triangle: 

  • Marketability of the asset – Legality, markets, size of market, divisibility, 

  • Money and Credit – What fuels the bubble? Relative returns, FOMO, low rates

  • Speculation – The snake oil story, the belief in “momentum”, the absence of financial gravity, a “this time it’s different” mentality, and an increasingly unshakeable belief “prices are always going to go up”. 

The authors warn the most dangerous bubbles are those driven by policy. (Your internal alarm bells should be screaming at this point.) There has never been a period in the history of the capitalist west where policy has been this critical for driving up the price of the stock market.

The fact the soon-to-be-ex-US President didn’t understand that prices were being driven higher by policy – and assumed it was all due to his personal financial acumen – is revealing just how much in denial folk are about the current monetary distortions. 

And that's where we stand – at that river in Egypt – it's called denial

 


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  1. Phil, a question? " Stocks are massively overvalued. Bonds are massively overpriced." So where do we put our money to work, somehow putting it in a mattress does not seem the best answer..


  2. Good Morning.  What a rigged game, ( and you ain't in it ) plus one of the reasons I follow large option trades:  Yesterday someone bought 9000 March $650 TSLA calls for about $60+ about a $55M trade

    Today, GS upgrades TSLA


  3. Ya think they know someone at GS? No…Not possible



  4. Good Morning.


  5. 3000 death and Trump is tweeting about conspiracies!

    Not a mention of the suffering of the population!


  6. Why would he change now?….


  7. Once a psychopath, always a psychopath!


  8. exactly….


  9. How about this? 

    Inauguration week, psychopath resigns, pence sworn in and then pardons said psychopath….

     

    He won't/can't pardon himself and that's despite what will happen in my second favorite state of New York (My favorite at this moment is Georgia)…. ;)


  10. Theres no money in it for Trump to do anything protect US citizens from covid, especially when those most at risk are in the bottom 80%.

    What I dont understand is why he called it a hoax from day 1.  He told Bernstein how terrible it was going to be, and Congress people were insider selling like crazy after their briefings on the virus. Seems like he could have gotten his racist base all riled up enough by blaming China for them having to wear masks.  That would have helped contain the virus, which would have gone a long way towards getting him re-elected.  Thoughts anyone?


  11. America Needs a COVID-19 Reckoning




  12. Republicans brace for Trump rally in Georgia


  13. Pardons-

    If they try to do a general pardon ("Anything I may have done that was unintentionally totally illegal") it wont hold up in court.

    If they accept a pardon to a specific crime, it is an omission of guilt in the courts.  So any state could then use that as evidence against them.

    Luckily none of this matters since Trump will use every penny of the $170+ million his loyal cultists gave him to prove election fraud and stay in office 8 more years :)  






  14. emailmike/tdump  I think tdump enjoys the domestic division. He hates all that hate him and he loves all those that love him and lot's of payback for fun!

    China is just China. Faceless, with no individual identity and that's no fun for him or his flock…


  15. Good point, covid was originally a CA / NY / NJ problem. Turnip hates those places as much as they hate him!!  Maybe he thought it would be contained there.


  16. Seriously, most of tdumps followers would not be able to find China on a map!   :)


  17. emailmike, trump decided to go for herd immunity from day one as best chance for re election .And he has shown by his actions he never changes course he doubles down to the end.

    But you cant bribe or lie away the covid.'so this time he lost.


  18. Third of population within three months

    The U.S. should be able to distribute enough coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to immunize 100M people by the end of February, which would protect the elderly, healthcare workers and people with pre-existing conditions. There could even be more doses than expected if Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) potential vaccine is authorized before then, according to Dr. Moncef Slaoui, who is leading the Trump administration's vaccine program Operation Warp Speed. CVS (NYSE:CVS) and Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA) are gearing up to deliver most of the vaccine doses for the nation's approximately 15,600 nursing homes and 29,000 assisted-living communities, but the effort will need to navigate rollout details that may vary by state. Grim milestone… More than 100,000 people are currently sick with coronavirus in hospitals across the U.S., pushing healthcare workers to their limits. (34 comments)


  19. herd immunity – But he sure jumped on the vaccine train pretty quick!


  20. Phil / WBA – My inclination is to wait now…. I have the following position – I've covered half and uncovered half 2 times and made some money but still net  -   My plan originally was to to at at Jan '22 45 calls, but now am thinking I should wait for it to hit 45 and cover at 50, or should cover 1/2 now and if so at 45 or 50?  

    Thanks for your help.

    100X Jan '22 $35 call ( 7.9)

    25X Jan '22 $40 puts ( 8)


  21. 1020 / Pop Nam – I believe there are probably over 80Million folks who have had it in US…. If they test people to see if they's had it and prioritize others that have not ( once we get past elderly) I think we could cover 2/3 of pop by Spring.. not sure this makes sense as I've heard nothin of pre testing people prior to getting vaccinated.  Given how crappy our test process is this is probably too much to ask.


  22. batmen 

    Just to assure myself did you actually sell 25 Jan 22 40 put options??? and you bought 100 35 call options?

    100X Jan '22 $35 call ( 7.9)

    25X Jan '22 $40 puts ( 8)


  23. Natural Gas (UNG) down big today! Anybody know the reasoning on this??


  24. By end of February, the death toll could be 500K. But this will be the Biden pandemic then…


  25. Good morning!

    Mattress/Millard – There's always BitCoin.  Actually I like our new Income Hedge Fund, which will make nice money on dividends and options sales.  Like our recent Top Trade on T – we don't need the stock to do anything to make 20% a year so, if my fallback position is do nothing and make 20% a year – I think I can live with sitting on the sidelines a bit.  And, of course, it's a great time to buy businesses.  We're working on a leveraged finance deal with PSW Investment's new Cannabis Fund to pick up part of a Hemp Farm for a fraction of what we could have gotten it for last year.  If you have money to invest, you can just walk down any street in America and have your pick of businesses in need of a financial partner.  

    I've got a bunch of fantastic deals on my desk – I wish we had more cash to spend but everything is tight at the moment so I'm bringing in outside financing partners to get some deals done.  It's an incredible time for people who have money to take advantage of.

    Or, you can just leave it in the market as we're now at  3,680!

    TSLA/Stock – I'm fairly certain that person should be arrested…  Just another great opportunity to short TSLA everyone is too scared to take.  

    Knowing someone/Millard – Musk is now worth $135Bn so of course he has moved up in connections.  He's now having GS and JPM run the same upgrade scam he had his old fund managers running and, if he gets richer, he'll have all the banks doing his bidding.  

    Thoughts/Emike – Because Trump and his cohorts are making a fortune on the crisis.  Trillions of Dollars, hundreds of Billions already missing.  Other Billions already obviously went to benefit Trump and his friends.  Those people are also in the PPE selling game – it's the hottest commodity in the World right now  – who would want that to end?  Trump thought he could do all this AND be re-elected – the guys who are backing him probably played him for a sucker because ALL they care about is the profiteering while Donny still wants to play President.  

    This is why Trump wanted to be President.  He admired the way Putin stole $80Bn from Russia and felt like he could run a similar scam on the American People.  Mission accomplished!  

    WBA/Batman – Train is leaving the station.  Sucks as they were going to be my Trade of the Year but at least none of our Members can say I didn't mention it.  You can see how it's playing out – no one has a better ready distribution system than WBA and CVS because there are 20,000 touch points who already have the information to track 200M Americans so they won't be buried adding the other 100M or exchanging secure information with their Doctors.  There was no other logical choice to distribute.  

    Congratulations to all who played along – even Yodi!  

    As to your position, Batman – It's a big one so I'd do a 1/4 cover at $45 and another 1/4 at $50 or if $45 fails and then you can always roll to 2x the $50s later.  2022 $45s are already $4.70 so net $3.20 is very nice on the $10 spread – even if you get stuck with that.

    Good point on testing.  Makes no sense to vaccinate people who already had it.

    UNG/Tshroy – Inventory draw was light but mostly just an excuse with no more hurricanes and a mild winter forecast.

    .  


  26. Phil you putting insults to injuries!


  27. Phil, Can you invest in the Income Hedge Fund in a Retirement account?


  28. I missed the trade on T since I cannot read everyday…What was that?


  29. Retirement/Millard – Yes, that does work apparently.  

    Top Trades for Wed, 02 Dec 2020 10:50 – T

    You should check your user profile to make sure you are set up to get Top Trade Alerts (top right of the main page).  


  30. My member profile says I should be getting the Top Trade alerts but I definitely did not get the one from yesterday


  31. Let andy (@philstockworld.com) know.


  32. Phil / WBA – thanks for the feedback —- I'll start covering at about 45 /sh. and cover with Jan 50 calls at 3.8 ish.   either way if I'll cover 25% on Friday…..   AMZN prescription filll is always a good story to drop the stock, and I'm sure it will be run again if this moves too much…


  33. Phil:  Would you go long on NG here?  The UNG Jan 22 5/10 spread can be purchased for $2.42.  The 6/11 spread at that same expiration is $2.09.  This would take us through the next hurricane season and presumably an upsurge in the economy as vaccinations help the world get back to business.   Or do you think that that is all too far off and thus it is too early to go long?  Thanks.


  34. /NG/John – Would I go long right in the dead center of the channel while it has terrible downward momentum and no particular catalyst coming into an historically weak time of year?  Er, no.   


  35. What to do with so called excess cash is always a conundrum. It is can be nice to have for margin cushion purposes. I like to have some in preferred stocks that yield around 7-8% – that makes it easy for rule of 72 calculations. One success is the Convertible ETF CWB, it does pay around a 2% dividend & it is up 26% YTD (probably a little overcooked now). It is an example of just keeping some funds in a security can do for you. I still hold some SIMO which I think Phil recommended eons ago. My stock cost basis is $ 11 a share and I have been selling premium of about 10% quarterly for years. It pays dividends of 3.6% and has a PE of 13. It can be fun to trade for quick profits, it can also be fun to plant trees and seeds and eventually notice your have a small forest or diverse, tasty garden !


  36. Phil:  Right you are.  I was looking at the chart for UNG, which is closing in on its all time low.  I didn't look at the chart for /NG.  My bad.  I didn't take into account decay.  This means that if /NG drops lower, UNG will make far lower lows.  Thanks for setting me straight.


  37. nice moves in INTC and WBA! Nicely profitable in each, sold calls to cover. I almost never regret selling those calls…


  38. Atitlan / INTC and WBA

    I have uncovered INTC and WBA calls too. I thought there will be upside in WBA near term. 

    What strike price did you to cover it with? 

    Thanks.


  39. This is useful:

    COVID-19 CRUCIAL INFORMATION

    ? Due to the collapse of the health system, we, the health professionals, have prepared this message for the people, in case you do not want to risk going to the hospital immediately;
      ____
    ? Symptoms appear from the third day after infection (viral symptoms).
       ? 1st phase;
      ? Body pain
      ? Eye pain
      ? Headache
      ? vomiting
      ? Diarrhea
      Runny nose or nasal congestion
      ? Decomposition
      ? Burning eyes
      ? Burning when urinating
      ? Feeling feverish
      ? Scuffed throat (sore throat)
      ? It is very important to count the days of symptoms: 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
      ? Take action before the onset of fever.
      ? Be careful, it is very important to drink plenty of fluids, especially purified water.  Drink plenty of water to keep your throat moist and to help clear your lungs.
      ____
      ? 2nd phase;  (from 4th to 8th day) inflammatory.
      ? Loss of taste and / or         smell
      ? Fatigue with minimal effort
      ? Chest pain (rib cage)
      ? Tightening of the chest
      ? Pain in the lower back (in the kidney area)
      ____
      ? The virus attacks nerve endings ;
      ? The difference between fatigue and shortness of breath:
      • _Lack of air is when the person is sitting – without making any effort – and is out of breath ;
      • Fatigue is when the person moves around to do something simple and feels tired.
      ____
      ? It takes a lot of hydration & vitamin C.
      ____
      Covid-19 binds oxygen, so the quality of the blood is poor, with less oxygen.
      ____
       ? 3rd phase – healing;
      ? On day 9, the healing phase begins, which can last until day 14 (convalescence).
      ? Do not delay treatment, the sooner the better !
      ____
      ? Good luck everyone !
      It is better to keep these recommendations, prevention is never too much!
      • Sit in the sun for 15-20 minutes
      • Rest and sleep for at least 7-8 hours.
      • Drink 1 and a half liters of water per day
      • All food should be hot (not cold).
      ? Keep in mind that the pH of the coronavirus ranges from 5.5 to 8.5.
      So all we have to do to eliminate the virus is to eat more alkaline foods, above the acid level of the virus.
      As;
      ? Bananas, Lime → 9.9 pH
      ? Yellow lemon → 8.2 pH
      ? Avocado – pH 15.6
      ? Garlic – pH 13.2
      ? Mango – pH 8.7
      ? Mandarin – pH 8.5
      ? Pineapple – 12.7 pH
      ? Watercress – 22.7 pH
      ? Oranges – 9.2 pH
      ____
      ? How do you know you have Covid-19 ?!
      ? itchy throat
      ? Dry throat
      ? Dry cough
      ? High temperature
      ? Difficulty breathing
      ? Loss of smell and taste
      ____
    DO NOT keep this information to yourself, forward it to your family members & friends.


  40. Umm, I don't know Phil. Some of that stuff is a bit whacky. 

    Don't eat cold food?? Why? That's nonsense. 

    Covid 19 doesn't "bind" oxygen…

    And that stuff about pH and foods…I'm always perplexed when that's presented as some treatment. If eating an avocado changes your pH that much I'm pretty sure guacamole would be illegal. Sure, the avocado is alkaline (I don't know that to be a fact inself but we'll assume that's accurate) but eating one certainly won't alter physiologic pH, at all. That's regulated tightly by multiple mechanisms. Deviations outside a narrow range aren't compatible with life generally. Normal blood pH is 7.4, it would take a lot of avocados to change that…assuming you don't vomit from eating all of them…which ironically would be the only way you'd end up raising the pH – from loss of gastric acids (pH around 2 in the stomach). 

    I guess the general message of look after yourself and stay hydrated is what I'd take from this. But if you get sick and think it's COVID, please don't avoid seeking medical care and eat a whole pineapple thinking that will help. 

     


  41. That's true, I wasn't focused on the PH thing but the numbers are way off.  PH over 10 would probably kill you and I didn't take it as saying don't go to the hospital – just saying if you are trying to get better on your own – as I sure would do unless things got worse.  I now have 7 family members who went through it, thankfully all seemingly fully recovered – none were hospitalized.  Covid doesn't bind but it breaks the 1-beta chain of Hemoglobin that causes your blood not to be able to carry enough oxygen to your organs, leading to all kinds of bad things.  

    Acid Rain: An Overview - Alabama Cooperative Extension System

    Interestingly, I self-treat my kidney stones by drinking a gallon of lemon juice in a day – it seems to do a good job of breaking them up by raising the acidity levels in my system.  Not sure if it would help or hurt with corona and hopefully I won't have to find out but, as a guy who's had them his whole life and was told by dozens of doctors there's nothing you can do (other than drugs with side effects) then got them under control with lemon juice – I'm not so quick to dismiss home remedies.