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Faltering Friday – Failure at Dow 30,000

Anoher day another 3,000 deaths.

Meanwhile, Mitch McConnel and the Republican Bastards in Congress postponed the vote on a simple one-week stop-gap bill to keep the Government running past December 11th – which is today.  If they don't get back to the table, Federal Agencies shut down and Federal workers get furloghed including agencies that are critical front-line defenses in fighting the pandemic.  Tens of thousands of additional lives could be lost if the Repbulicans get their way today.

Mostly it's the Senate – only 67 hard-line Republican Representatives voted against the measure vs 343 reasonable people who voted for it but the Senate is a different animal altoghether – full of wealthy, entitled White Men whose families don't suffer the consequences of contracting Covid-19 because they go to the best hospitals and get the best treatment – so what do they care if they condemn tens of thousands of American Citizens to death?  Like President Trump – they are immune.  

The chart above, of the deadliest days in US history, is already out of date with 3,055 people dying on Wednesday and another 2,974 yesterday and the daily death rate is now tracking towards 4,000 per day over the next few weeks (merry Christmas!) and may get worse than that if people insist on migling on Christmas the way they did on Thanksgiving.  

German magazine Stern doesn't hold back with their anti-Trump cover | Metro  News1,800 people a day die of heart disease in America on an average day and 1,640 die of cancer so Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death in America.  Not in the world – just in America, where 4 times more people die per population than the even the next 9 worst nations in the World.  That's the real tragedy, this is a preventable tragedy – every single day something could be done to reverse these numbers and every single day nothing is done by Trump and the GOP – NOTHING!!!

It's the lack of outrage that I find outrageous.  

Adolf Hitler was the leading cause of death for Jews from 1939-1945 yet 6M divided by 365 divided by 6 years = "only" 2,739 deaths per day.  Trump's negligence is killing more people per day than Hitler's INTENTIONAL, SYSTEMATIC, STATE-SANCTIONED MURDER of millions of people.  And Trump has accomplished this in just 9 months – even as we speak he and his Repbulican cohorts are working hard to have four more years to implement their final solution on the American People – who knows how many people they can kill if we give them a chance?  

If a normal human being were the President of the United States and he woke up and read in the paper (or saw on Fox news or Twitter) that 3,000 of his people had died – what would he do?  Would any of those answers be NOTHING?  Isn't NOTHING about the worst thing he could do?  Pretty much other than going out and SPRAYING people with the virus, nothing is obviously the worst thing the President of the United States could do in this situation.  

Although, I guess, to be fair, spreading false information, withholding information from the public, defunding health care, leading (by example) people to do the opposite of what they should be doing, firing scientists who try to warn people of the danger and refusing to implement even the most basic safety measure on the Federal level – well that is pretty much the same as actively spraying people with the virus, isn't it?  

Go out this weekend and count all the people you see.  Make sure you say "Dead" after the first 3,000 and see when you are able to stop saying dead.  Yes, I want to make you uncomfortable and yes I want you to think about it because, as I said, the lack of outrage in this country is completely outrageous and, frankly, I don't know what to do about it but, for the moment, we need the American people to WAKE UP and stop accepting this catastrophe like it's OK and stop accepting the actions of our "leaders" as if that's OK – it's not!

I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth; banks are going bust; shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter; punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.

We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. And we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be!

We all know things are bad — worse than bad -- they're crazy.

It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out any more. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we're living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, "Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials, and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone."

Well, I'm not going to leave you alone.

I want you to get mad!

I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot. I don't want you to write to your Congressman, because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. I don't know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street.

All I know is that first, you've got to get mad.

You've gotta say, "I'm a human being, goddammit! My life has value!"

So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,

"I'm as mad as hell,

and I'm not going to take this anymore!!"

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil


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  1. Nice Picture!


    Good morning.

  2. I'm not sure after all we've been through, that getting mad will help. Hell, even 'getting even' does not feel worth the time.

    Yes, we are all human and it's nearly impossible to tell who your true friends are, so taking care of your family and yourselves is all you really have left.


    So, what are you waiting for?

  3. As I posted last night, I am having trouble containing my rage now! It's not just the 3000 deaths, it's horrible enough. It's the seditious talk from one party in this country who refuses to acknowledge that they have lost one election! That's the type of things we see in Turkey, in Belarus, in Hungary where they have dictators! And on top of it, it's from a party that represents a minority of the people – they have won one popular vote in 28 years! But yet have a majority in the Senate, gerrymander as much as they can to give themselves an advantage everywhere. And the Supreme Court even though they lose these popular votes.. And yet, it's not enough for them. Total power or we burn down the place! Anarchists, terrorists… They are seeding violence, racism and xenophobia! I can't take it anymore!

  4. Another day another low for CHL.  

  5. It is maddening. Throw in the rush to execute as many death row inmates as possible on his way out. Trump really is showing his dark side. We are a barbaric society where so many feel good about their government rushing to kill people. I can see Duterte and Kim smiling. 

  6. Guys it does not help getting made, from the outside I ask myself why in hell did still 70 mil quoted for that yellow clown????????? If some one has the answer, than the world can understand why and one could do something about it.

  7. Rookie / CHL. Feel your pain. Delisting worries driving it lower. Wish I eased into it a little more

  8. Phil:  You recommended CHL recently.  It certainly is inexpensive relative to its historic PE (7.2X consensus forward PE vs over 10X in recent yeras) .  What is your take on the Trump ban on US investments in Chinese companies linked to the military?  CHL is on the initial list, which means that US investors will have to sell their shares by November 2021. 

    In addition, in response to the ban, CHL could be removed from benchmark FTSE equities indices. The Financial Times has noted that 8 other Chinese companies (not CHL) are already being removed.  MSCI will make a decision regarding index removals soon.  All of the above can lead to forced selling and diminished liquidity over time unless there is a policy reversal under the Biden Administration.  Is your recommendation based on that expectation? 

    Do you know if investors can buy CHL on the HK exchange via the ThinkorSwim platform?

  9. So if Disney hits an all time high without cruises and parks, what happens when they are back in action?  Or is that already priced in?

  10. Maybe they never re-open the parks and cruises! Who needs the aggravation when you make more money selling Baby Yoda puppets to people addicted to Disney+

  11. Good morning!

    Gotta learn to buy those dips – no negatives are allowed to last.

    You are right, StJ:

    Republicans are now seriously arguing that elections are legitimate only when their side wins.

    With a promise to deliver millions of doses in weeks, the U.S. government faces a massive logistical test.


    These guys are just psychotically evil:

    Michelle Goldberg

    This is why I get angry – I read the news!  

    CHL/Rookie – Everyone thinks they are being delisted and also money is rightly being pulled out of China ETFs so CHL is getting dumped along with all the other stocks.  Since there is very little bullish demand for CHL to offset it (volume just 3.2M per day vs 9.4M for T) – the bulls get swamped and the stock goes down.  

    70M/Yodi – It's a systemic religious and secular education program in this country designed to raise generations of weak-minded people who crave strong authority figures.  The people who questioned the concept of "Make America Great Again" were branded as unpatriotic.  Anyone to the left of center is a "Socialist" and "Socialism" is as bad to most Americans as Communism – even though most of them don't understand what either one actually means.  

    This is an Oligarchy – exactly what George Carlin said it was, a Society that simply wants semi-educated consumer/workers to exploit.  One that builds a bigger and bigger moat around the privileged 0.01% and now we elect them as leaders – even though they are COMPLETELY against the self-interest of the average voter.  

    And that 0.01% are paying less taxes and no longer paying inheritance taxes so their positions become permanent for themselves and their families.  Trumps, Waltons, Kochs, are the future (and current) ruling families of America and, unfortunately, the only people powerful enough to stop them like Buffett and Gates – keep giving away their fortunes – mostly to help those who've been destroyed by the greed of the rulers.  But then how are things going to change?  Perhaps that's part of the Oligarch's plan – keep conditions bad enough that those who would oppose them are constantly distracted trying to save the people the Oligarchs are harming.  Clever…. 

    CHL/John – Well, as you say, it's Trump's list, not Biden's.  I don't think you can buy HK CHL.

    The order would bar U.S. investors from owning companies the Defense Department deems to be a “Communist Chinese military company”—as well as funds that own them. The Defense Department’s list includes companies such as like China Mobile (ticker: CHL) and China Telecom (CHA), as well as Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology (2415.China).

    The order, which gives investors until next November to divest from these companies, raises questions about implementation. China Mobile and China Telecom, for example, are both part of the MSCI Emerging Markets index and part of myriad funds that track that benchmark, including the $24.2 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange traded fund (EEM).

    Details on whether the order applies only within the U.S. or also prohibits U.S. citizens from investing in these companies in China or through offshore financial centers were still unclear.

    Notice TikToc is still around.  If they can't get rid of TikToc – how are they going to get rid of CHL?

    Regardless, the financial impact could be small. U.S. investors hold only about 2% of the total China stock market capitalization, with just a fraction of publicly listed Chinese companies associated with China’s military-industrial complex—a reason U.S. investments in Chinese stocks might not provide Washington with much political or economic leverage, Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, said.

    DIS/Tangled – If they aren't worth it now, they won't be worth it then.  People are just insane with their valuations.  Look at Door Dash and Air BNB – this is like the winter of 1999 – when everything just went crazy before the great crash when suddenly, none of those stocks were worth anything.  There was no virus then – in fact, the Y2K virus ended up being a non-event and nothing bad happened in the economy but the bubble just burst and suddenly NOTHING was worth 100x earnings and not even 50x earnings and everything just collapsed.  

    Stock Market Crashes - The History, The Why, The How

  12. Hundreds of GOP members sign onto Texas-led election lawsuit

  13. CHL / Phil, John

    Are you saying, with respect to CHL, just keep holding onto shares and wait?

  14. Bill Gates Predicts When the Pandemic Will End

  15. Mitch McConnell Torpedoes $900 Billion COVID-19 Relief Deal

  16. This country is falling apart. The trump death fascism cult is maniacal; total psychological destruction. Imagine be so enamored by such a terrible person, that tells you a lot about 46.5% of the US population right there. It's kind of hilarious in a way, for those that are psychologically fit and finished heavyweights* with moral and ethical boundaries that rely on reason and accountability.


    * defined as people from good, solid, loving families with little to know history of abuse and no on-going anxiety-mitigating disorder (drugs/alcohol addiction, OCD, hoarding, obesity/eating-disorders, all of these which are really the same thing, mentally speaking) that are currently not in treatment for it.

  17. CHL/Sagaro – Yes, I think it's an over-reaction.  Especially for something that doesn't happen until next year.

    Well another strong finish for the market into the close.  

    The Senate passed a stopgap measure funding the government for one week, giving lawmakers more time to negotiate a broader spending package and a coronavirus-aid agreement.

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil

  18. Phil / ALXN – even good news is bad news……   I have the following position in ALXN  I'm wondering how I should handle the short caller ( dec below). - Astra Zeneca made a buyout offer for ALXN at 175 this weekend…  There is some that think there may be other suiters now and the price may go further up, although I think 175 a share is a very good price for this.  I'm thinking to let it get assigned, and then sell some covers on the shares or just hold….  or I could exit the position and maybe have some thingthe BCS to be in the 40K to 50K profit and the puts will be in the money as well, but the short caller may have a loss of 16K so still a profit but much lower than I expected….   What do you think I should do on this…

    Thanks as always for your view.

    Short  5X Dec 18 '20 $135 call ( 2) <——--

    Long 25 X Jan '22 $100 Call ( 26)

    Short 25 X Jan '22 $30 Call ( 10.5) 

    Short 5X Jan '22 $90 Put ( 15)



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  19. Phil. ALXN.  Correction on position. 

    Thanks as always for your view.

    Short  5X Dec 18 '20 $135 call ( 2)

    Long 25 X Jan '22 $100 Call ( 26)

    Short 25 X Jan '22 $130 Call ( 10.5) 

    Short 5X Jan '22 $90 Put ( 15)