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Wednesday Worries – Trump Tweets Trouble for Stimulus Bill

I give up!

 

 

Trump indicated yesterday that he will block the stimulus bill based mainly on the "fact" that it included other things besides Covid relief (it's also a $1.4Tn budget bill to keep the Government running) and the President says he wants to raise the direct payments from $600 to $2,000 per person, which would add another $400Bn to the bill, completely breaking the budget.  

It took two months of fighting to get this bill on the desk and suddenly Trump sounds like a Democrat, demanding a much bigger spending bill than the compromise that was finally passed on Monday with a 92-6 vote in the Senate and a 359-53 vote in the house.  If he vetoes it, lawmakers would need to either pass new legislation meeting his demand for larger stimulus checks or vote to override his veto—which requires a two-thirds threshold for passage in each chamber.  

The stock market doesn't seem to care (about anything) as it's flat this morning.  I think there's a nice percentage play in shorting the S&P (/ES) Futures below the 3,685 line with tight stops above and we could try again, of course, if we get to 3,700.  While Congress clearly has the votes to override the President – do Republicans have the will to do so?

Both chambers on Monday also passed a seven-day extension of government funding, which Trump signed early Tuesday morning. If the President doesn’t sign the aid package or have his veto overridden by next Monday, the government could shut down briefly. If Mr. Trump doesn’t sign or veto the bill within 10 days after it is passed, it would become law without his signature.  Most lawmakers have already left Washington for the holidays following the bill’s passage, so any refusal to sign by Trump kicks the stimulus into 2021.

“I am also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation, and to send me a suitable bill, or else the next administration will have to deliver a Covid relief package,” he said. “And maybe that administration will be me, and we will get it done.”

He's like a cartoon villain these days.  

We spent months trying to secure $2000 checks but Republicans blocked it,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said on Twitter Tuesday night. “Trump needs to sign the bill to help people and keep the government open and we’re glad to pass more aid Americans need.”

Trump is also expected to veto the National Defense Authorization Act by Dec. 23rd, the last day he is permitted to do so before it would become law. The House is currently slated to return to session on Dec. 28th to vote on overriding that veto, followed by the Senate on Dec. 29th.

Meanwhile, we're locking down for the Holidays – that's the mall in Santa Monica, California on December 8th.  “We can’t let up now. We need to continue all our efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19 in a very vulnerable time,” said Dr. Rachel Levine, secretary of health in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf on Dec. 10th ordered places such as movie theaters and bowling alleys to close through Jan. 4th.  

Nearly 85 million Americans are expected to travel from Dec. 23rd through Jan. 3rd, off at least 29% from last year, according to an estimate by AAA. In states across the country, small businesses and restaurants are being hit with de facto lockdowns because of occupancy limits or restrictions on dining. At the same time, big-box retailers have been permitted to stay open, in part because their large stores allow for social distancing, prompting resentment from small-business owners.

In the spring, all but a handful of states issued stay-at-home orders that ground nonessential economic activity to a halt. At the time, states were short of ventilators, testing capacity and personal protective equipment for health-care workers, and lacked treatments for the new virus. Those broad orders slowed the rate of infection and bought time for hospitals to catch up. Now, as case numbers surge, most states are clamping down on activities that help the virus spread while trying to avoid a complete shutdown of the economy.

“We didn’t know how fast the virus was spreading, what we were really dealing with,” said Dr. Mandy Cohen, North Carolina’s secretary of health and human services. “More importantly, we didn’t have our response capabilities up and mature.”

Durable Goods were up 0.9% and that was a bit worse than expected but I'm much more concerned about Pesonal Income, which is down 1.1% and that's much worse than the -0.3% expected by our leading Economorons and almost 100% worse than last month's -0.6%.  Consumer Spending is also 100% worse than expected at -0.4% – a total disaster in a normal market cycle but maybe we'll get new highs on this news, right?

 


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  1. Good morning…and wait…is today not Wednesday?  Oh my, deja vu!


  2. My cards are on the way to everyone….


  3. Good Morning.


  4. Good morning. Here is the link for today's webinar.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/9026941397853380876


  5. AMGN is still a good buy today good div. good option plays Buy stock and sell Jun21 230/210 strangle for 26.50. Nice discount of your stock purchase.


  6. Good morning!

    I'm starting the day with something nice.  I linked to Billie Eilish's Bad Guy above and Youtube then played these videos.  What a nice and talented girl she is – her brother too.

     

    She's right between my 2 girls (19) and they listened to her when she was a YouTube star since they were very young.  It's amazing how kids get to follow bands from their very early days and then grow up together.  I can't tell you how many "meet and greet" events I went to with my daughters.  


  7. Of course, I was actually looking for this song when I found the other video – one of my all-time favorites.  

    This has been my favorite band since I was a little kid! 


  8. Son of a bitch, the market is flying higher again.  3,695 is good enough for my first short and 2,000 in /RTY as well!


  9. Hey Phil

    took a road trip with my nephew to the R&R hall of fame. The WHO were the featured band,

    it was a great exhibit! I recall trying to explain the recording equipment,how the beatles would record on 4 track in 1 or 2 takes.He had come across cassettes but wanted to know what the 8 track was? What a wonderfull day.

     

    p.s Billie Eilish and her brother may find themselves ther e one day.


  10. The Who, also my all time favorite band.  I made Baba O'Riley my ringtone. It never fails that when they play it on the radio, my wife says "answer your damn phone"


  11. Just a heads up on AMYZF American Maganese. I've had it for awhile and apparently it has got a contract from the US so is moving on heavy volume. More than covered my cost.


  12. Behind Blue Eyes is my favorite song by the WHO.  

    Phil – At what level would you get interested in WPM again?


  13. AT&T Is Our Top Value Pick For 2021

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395941-t-is-top-value-pick-for-2021?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=t-at-t-is-our-top-value-pick-for-2021&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0Summary

    AT&T has an impressive portfolio of assets. We've discussed the company numerous times before, but it has the potential to generate strong shareholder rewards.

    The company performed admirably through 2020, much better than its original COVID-19 forecasts. That's a strong FCF yield.

    Going forward, we expect AT&T to continue paying its dividends and restart share buybacks while improving its financial position.

    In 2021, we expect that as shareholders realize this and COVID-19 quiets down it'll lead to multiple expansion.


  14. Batman T I am preaching it for weeks. Trust no one has seen AMGN this morning either. The purchase of 100 stock only with the ARMCHAIR play, brings you just under 500$ a month, even Phil can buy a dinner with that.


  15. Hat to tell even 200 stock will pay for my grocery a month


  16. It seems Trump's real problem with the bill is the 2 year limit on the 100% business lunch deduction.  


  17. Yodi / T –  My premise is that they will show reasonable growth next year – if the dual launch in theaters and App growth  is positive  - they show growth in HBO Go, and lower Churn as well on phones - remember they are bundling new phones with Apps in certain areas.   This should Show up this Quarter and next.  hopefully this pops the stock up.  IN addition – the Dual release approach is pretty high risk (Disney is really against this and they have a much better management team) ….  AT&T  - They have Actors / Directors. whose pay is tied too Box office could get screwed , and although they can protect them some, if they don't generate reasonable profit off this, it cold drive issues longer term – if this happens they will be hurting the binsiness long term… and this is a high Cap business …  Directors and Actors are signed to deals but if they are not making the returns they need, they can walk…..   The debt is manageable for now….   My big concern with them is that what they are doing w/ HBO / Time Warner – from a management perspective is very similar to what they did with Direct TV – but I believe the HBO mgmt team they moved out was better that directTV's.  I'm covering t his stock this at the next Pop if  and  it reaches 33 35 at some point. for a reasonable return I'm out…  


  18. And here comes our private power companies in California, every time a stiff breeze is in the forecast, they get the litigation jitters (because they've caused major fires with their crap maintenance, got caught, got sued).



  19. TIME’s Top 10 Photos of 2020



  20. After months of calm, Thailand grapples with virus outbreak










  21. I knew FCEL would break out! Christmas bonus 10 calls came home! 


  22. Pharm / LQDA,

    What's the next milestone/catalyst for LQDA?  Seeing normal legal challenges on behalf of investors and their 200M mixed shelf offering.  Where do they stand from a technology standpoint from your perspective?  Not much news, info lately.


  23. I apologize if I missed the conversation, but I'm seeing all over different social medias that this stimulus bill contains a lot of money to foreign countries and $1 billion to the Smithsonian?? What?? I don't get it.  People need more than $600 to survive during this next go around.  


  24. Sorry guys, on calls all morning.  Trying to close 30M investment in project for PSW Investments – looks good!

    Webinar time!


  25. LQDA – FDA is still the near term catalyst.  Otherwise sit and wait.  I am all in.


  26. Phil,

    Does anyone on this site know if Pfizer has a covid vaccine which is made in China. It is administered as a vaporizer cartridge- single dose use. Just seems our PSW site members would have caught wind of this. thanks for any info….or is this fake news!


  27. jasu….I have not heard of such a thing.  Everything from my knowledge needs to be at -80C for PFE's and -40C for Moderna.


  28. Thanks all; Seems like fake news….looking closely at the packaging, under the pfizer logo are the words "makers of the boner pill"…..now that's gotta be fake news! Sorry, my bad, got taken in….stupid gaff!


  29. PFE/Jasu – In case you weren't on the Webinar – I super doubt that is true.   

    Wow, nice little dip after hours is saving my index shorts!  

    /RTY is good to play too below the 2,000 line.


  30. Happy Holidays to all!! May you find health and peace and happiness in the New Year

    Here is the link to today's webinar replay…..

    https://youtu.be/hhtjmo0aco8