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Whipsaw Wednesday – America Heads in a New Direction

Three Reasons Biden Flipped the Midwest - POLITICOWe're going to go back to the future!  

After taking an evolutionary step backwards for four years, it's time to get America back on track and moving forward again in the 21st Century and, hopefully, we still have time to make this decade the Roaring 20s and not the prelude to the second Great Depression.  As Warren Buffett says about investing in companies:.  

“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”

Well, America has not passed the idiot test but it's still too soon to get a grade as we have to see if Engineer Joe can get this train back on the tracks or if, at this point, he'll merely be able to bring us in for a soft landing.  At 78 years old, even Joe Biden doesn't think he should be President for more than 4 years and is calling himself a "Transition President".  Reagan was 78 when he left office, Trump is 74 but, as Reagan said of Walter Mondale:

“I want you to know that I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” Reagan said. “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Experience is certainly what Joe Biden is bringing to the table – he's been a Senator since 1973, then VP for 8 years in 2009 and then 4 years of relaxation as a Professor at the University of Pennsylvania while remaining at the forefront of the "Cancer Moonshot" program he started and is likely to bring to the White House officially as one of his first acts.  If you want to know what Joe Biden is really about, watch his eulogy for John McCain.

Politics doesn't have to be ugly and our nation doesn't have to be bitterly divided.  We, the people, are being offered a chance to go forward with the grace and dignity we used to aspire to, not the ineptitude and bile we have settled for.  We're better than that – all of us are better than that – and we should expect better than that from our leaders.  

So far, the markets are loving it, with the S&P 500 now topping 3,800 and still heading higher but it's the small-cap Russell 2000 that has gone crazy since the election, climbing from 1,500 in October to 2,150 this morning – a gain of 43% in 3 months.  At this rate of return, who needs a trading plan?  

The Russell is up 120% from it's March low of 1,000 – the Nasdaq hasn't even doubled yet!  Of course this is insane but the madness doesn't stop which is why we still have all those longs in our 6 Member Portfolios, even though we REALLY think things are grossly overvalued.  

The Long-Term Portfolio, in fact, gained 8.3% since Thursday, closing yesterday at $1,557,513 from $1,515,200 Thursday morning for a gain of $42,313 in 3 market sessions.  This is what Yellen promised us yesterday – MORE FREE MONEY – but we have to be there to take advantage of it, don't we?  The Government is throwing Trillions and Trillions of Dollars into the economy and other Governments around the World are doing the same so of course our Corporations will benefit.  

At the moment, there's no end in sight to the free money parade and, in many ways, the new boss is the same as the old boss and Yellen made it very clear yesterday that the Biden Administration has no intention of rocking the economic vote until we are able to tackle the virus crisis – and that's probably a lot more than 100 days away.  


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  1. Just watching the take off from the clown and missing the booom!!!!

  2. The canoes shooting in the wrong direction

  3. Vaccine question for all that have received it.  When you received the vaccine did you have to sign a waiver.  The hospital my wife works at is making them sign a waiver and a lot of the surgery nurses aren't getting it due to that

  4. Good morning everyone. Here is the link to today's webinar.

  5. bertil, yes, although it was called a consent form.  

  6. Good Morning!


    It's a Good Day.  :)

  7. There is unrest in the forest
    There is trouble with the trees
    For the maples want more sunlight
    And the oaks ignore their pleas

    The trouble with the maples
    And they're quite convinced they're right
    They say the oaks are just too lofty
    And they grab up all the light

    But the oaks can't help their feelings
    If they like the way they're made
    And they wonder why the maples
    Can't be happy in their shade

    There is trouble in the forest
    And the creatures all have fled
    As the maples scream "Oppression"
    And the oaks just shake their heads

    So the maples formed a union
    And demanded equal rights
    "The oaks are just too greedy
    We will make them give us light"
    Now there's no more oak oppression
    For they passed a noble law
    And the trees are all kept equal
    By hatchet, axe, and saw



  8. Glorious morning!!! Is the sun a bit brighter or did he try and napalm his way to 4 more years?

    On a trading note I found this which has the DAX P/E ration at 65 for the last quarter. I mean wow. 

  9. Phil, any thoughts on what to do with this position I’m in?

    Bought 20 19 Mar 21 $15 call for $3.55

    Sold 20 19 Mar 21 $28 call for $1.00

  10. Looks like one of our Hedges- TQQQ is splitting again, wish I had seen this last week.

    We should notice it tomorrow morning in the positions.

  11. Phil/TQQQ reverse split.

    I have a march 150/130 Bear Put spread. Is it better to get out of it today before they get messed up after the reverse split?

    thanks & Regards

  12. swampfox what stock may help

  13. Sorry guys, SDS.

    Phil, any thoughts on what to do with this position I’m in?

    Bought 20 SDS 19 Mar 21 $15 call for $3.55

    Sold 20 SDS 19 Mar 21 $28 call for $1.00

  14. swampfox OK now we see. You bought insurance and I trust you portfolio has increased in value and your insurance is running out. The long call is worth .22 cents and I would close the call. For a new insurance if you wish you need to set up a complete new play.

  15. Good morning!

    We're off to a poppin' start already.  Won't be much left to buy at this pace.  Have to hope some people really bomb earnings. 

    Shouldn't AAPL be at $2Tn by now?

    Consent forms/Bert, Stock – I don't see a problem with that.  They rushed the vaccine, the companies don't want to be punished for it down the road so they did the best they can and we (the public) accept the risks.  I wouldn't protect them from negligence suits but ordinary side effects shouldn't be a liability hanging over their heads for a decade either.

    Napalm/Malsg – Trump left town already, no drama so far.

    DAX/Malsg – And the forward P/E ration may be in fantasy land.

    Random Stock/Swamp – Well SDS is a 2x ETF at $11.82 so a 20% drop in /ES would be a 60% gain to $19.  You paid net $2.55 for the spread and the March $15s are now 0.25 so you waited a bit too long to roll as all your premium dried up.  There's no "fixing" this – you are essentially making a new trade.  The 2022 $10 ($2.65)/17 ($1.50) for net $1.15 is a reasonable spread as you're $1.82 in the money for $1.15.  Hopefully you made more than enough on your longs to offset the loss of the first hedge.

    And what Yodi said!

    TQQQ/Randers – The splits are no big deal, usually, we just get the adjusted amounts.

    TQQQ/Pat – If you can get a good price ($8.65/5.20), it's easier to get out and re-position after but usually not worth it if you have to chase a poor bid/ask spread.

  16. Phil, anyone,

    Any thoughts as to the 6 day drop in DG (& its lesser cousin, DLTR) ? Only thing I see is the monetary inducement for  employees to get vaccinated.


  17. Beautiful….

    “The Hill We Climb”
    Amanda Gorman

    When day comes we ask ourselves, where can we find light in this never-ending shade? The loss we carry, a sea we must wade. We’ve braved the belly of the beast, we’ve learned that quiet isn’t always peace and the norms and notions of what just is, isn’t always justice. And yet the dawn is ours before we knew it, somehow we do it, somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed a nation that isn’t broken but simply unfinished.

    We, the successors of a country and a time where a skinny black girl descended from slaves and raised by a single mother can dream of becoming president only to find herself reciting for one. And, yes, we are far from polished, far from pristine, but that doesn’t mean we are striving to form a union that is perfect, we are striving to forge a union with purpose, to compose a country committed to all cultures, colors, characters and conditions of man.

    So we lift our gazes not to what stands between us, but what stands before us. We close the divide because we know to put our future first, we must first put our differences aside. We lay down our arms so we can reach out our arms to one another, we seek harm to none and harmony for all.

    Let the globe, if nothing else, say this is true: that even as we grieved, we grew, even as we hurt, we hoped, that even as we tired, we tried, that we’ll forever be tied together victorious, not because we will never again know defeat but because we will never again sow division.

    Scripture tells us to envision that everyone shall sit under their own vine and fig tree and no one should make them afraid. If we’re to live up to our own time, then victory won’t lie in the blade, but in in all of the bridges we’ve made.

    That is the promise to glade, the hill we climb if only we dare it because being American is more than a pride we inherit, it’s the past we step into and how we repair it. We’ve seen a force that would shatter our nation rather than share it. That would destroy our country if it meant delaying democracy, and this effort very nearly succeeded. But while democracy can periodically be delayed, but it can never be permanently defeated.

    In this truth, in this faith, we trust, for while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, this is the era of just redemption we feared in its inception we did not feel prepared to be the heirs of such a terrifying hour but within it we found the power to author a new chapter, to offer hope and laughter to ourselves, so while once we asked how can we possibly prevail over catastrophe, now we assert how could catastrophe possibly prevail over us.

    We will not march back to what was but move to what shall be, a country that is bruised but whole, benevolent but bold, fierce and free, we will not be turned around or interrupted by intimidation because we know our inaction and inertia will be the inheritance of the next generation, our blunders become their burden. But one thing is certain: if we merge mercy with might and might with right, then love becomes our legacy and change our children’s birthright.

    So let us leave behind a country better than the one we were left, with every breath from my bronze, pounded chest, we will raise this wounded world into a wondrous one, we will rise from the golden hills of the West, we will rise from the windswept Northeast where our forefathers first realized revolution, we will rise from the lake-rimmed cities of the Midwestern states, we will rise from the sunbaked South, we will rebuild, reconcile, and recover in every known nook of our nation in every corner called our country our people diverse and beautiful will emerge battered and beautiful, when the day comes we step out of the shade aflame and unafraid, the new dawn blooms as we free it, for there is always light if only we’re brave enough to see it, if only we’re brave enough to be it.

  18. We liked GM and T in the Webinar as conservative spreads. 

  19. Enjoy the replay of this week's webinar…