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3,850 Thursday – S&P 500 Seems Comfortable 700 Points Over the Must Hold Line

3,150.

That's still the true value-line we have for the S&P 500 based on old-fashioned notions like actual earnings and actual prospects without the assumption of Trillions of Dollars being pumped into the economy.  It's "only" a 20% drop from where we are now and we were down there as recently as October and below 2,850 in June.  2,850 was our old Must Hold Line but we capitulated by 10% on the assumption that Corporate Tax Cuts would not be going away completely – it's the MASSIVE stimulus that's been an upside surprise since then.  

The Chart above is still using our 2,850 base and the 5% Rule is still working from 2,850 so it's still in play and that means 3,990 is the 40% line.  We had good consolidation at 30% (3,705) during December so we can assume the lines in between that 285-point run will be 20% (57 points) each and that's going to be 3,762, 3,819, 3,876 (which we're testing now) and 3,933.  Those are the lines to watch to see how the S&P behaves during earnings season.

Generally, companies have been beating low expectations and, so far, investors seem to be in a forgiving mood as, for example, United Airlines (UAL) lost $2.1Bn in Q4, which is 15% of their $13.2Bn market cap and $7 lost per $45 share in the past 3 months.  Yet the stock is only down 2% pre-market.  Why?  FREE MONEY!!!  There will be more free money and no one thinks Joe Biden will let the airlines go bankrupt – even though he is a train guy.

Delta (DAL) also lost $2.1Bn for the quarter but they expect to turn it around in Q1 and show a profit.  A month into Q1 – I think they are on drugs.  There's no changing travel trend to indicate a turn-around that rapid – unless they are counting on $2.1Bn in stimulus to get them over the top.

At $41.62/share, Delta's market cap is $26.5Bn and Delta's net income in previous years has been $3-4Bn but this year they have taken a $14Bn loss, wiping out the last 3 years of gains.  Of course, that's not your problem if you are coming in as a new investor – you only care what they do in the future so the optimistic outlook is just what new investors want to hear.

DAL was $60+ before this crisis began but they were also $17 in March – it's very tricky to invest in Airlines – as poor Warren Buffett was recently reminded…  While I can't endorse playing an individual airline, I do like the Airline ETF (JETS) and we're already playing that since October in our Future is Now Portfolio:

JETS Long Call 2023 20-JAN 15.00 CALL [JETS @ $22.80 $0.00] 15 10/8/2020 (729) $9,750 $6.50 $3.63 $6.50     $10.13 $0.00 $5,438 55.8% $15,188
JETS Short Call 2023 20-JAN 25.00 CALL [JETS @ $22.80 $0.00] -15 10/8/2020 (729) $-5,475 $3.65 $1.98     $5.63 $0.00 $-2,963 -54.1% $-8,438
JETS Short Put 2023 20-JAN 15.00 PUT [JETS @ $22.80 $0.00] -15 10/8/2020 (729) $-6,600 $4.40 $-2.27     $2.14 $0.00 $3,398 51.5% $-3,203

At the time, we were aggressive with our short puts and that worked out nicely and our net $2,325 credit entry already has a liquidating value of $3,547 for a gain of $5,872 (252%) so far but it's a net $15,000 spread that's now deep in the money so, even if you take it as a new trade – it still has $9,128 of upside potential if JETS can simply manage to continue on to $25 over the next two years.  That's a lot more comfortable than putting all our eggs in one airline, isn't it?  

Yesterday, in our Live Trading Webinar, we also saw good trading opportunities for GM (GM) and AT&T (T) and you can view the replay HERE.  As I pointed out to our Members, we can make truly stunning returns on blue chip stocks that are still trading at reasonable valuations so why mess around chasing these high-flyers in a very toppy market.

Even better yet, why buy anything until we see how earnings shake out?  I'm sure you know that INFORMATION is the key to having a trading advantage and what better information is there than earnings reports, which let us know who's really making enough money to justify their valuations.  I'm still very much preferring to see how things go for the next few weeks and, of course, we'll begin to get a handle on what Joe Biden's policies are going to be (and whether they get through Congress) – or we can just guess and trade blindly.

Which would you prefer?  

Image

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. The S&P is up 507% on an annualized basis under the Biden administration!


  3. Phil/ET/PAA,

    What is up with ET and PAA? They have come up with oil but ideally oil pricing should not affect them as much I guess.

    They are muted in this rally

    regards



  4. Good morning!

    507%/StJ – A good start!

    ET & PAA/Pat – Companies that pay our substantial amounts of their earnings as dividends don't move much in good economies.  Of course, we don't play them for the growth but for the dividend, so that's fine with us.  With ET, in fact, we sold $5 calls and the stock is $6.67 – we had no intention of benefitting from growth.  PAA we also weren't aggressive on but we doubled down on the longs recently.  Not sure what you consider "muted" – are we really that spoiled?

    Here's something funny from the PPE bulletin board:

    AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine
    Production Allocation deal

    Made in UK

    These come in the following format:

    Carton: 10 vials
    One vial: 5ml
    One dose: 0.5ml
    Per person: 2 doses = 1ml

    Needs to be kept refrigerated 2-8 Celsius, for both transport and storage. 

    Product will need to be picked up EXW at Oxford AZ

    Supplier #1
    2-11M doses x 6 months

    Supplier #2
    17M doses x 6 months

    Pricing is $12/dose,  including $1 commission. If it is sold over $12, all profits split 50/50.
    For the vaccines:

    - we have an allocation of 50M doses  per month of the Covid 19 vaccine from Astra Zeneca UK through their authorized distributors.

    - SOP – LOI, MT 199, ICPO – PI – Payment against dispatch as per agreed production schedule.

    Price – $10.40, which includes $0.10 of commission for you -

    - Reseller company has no cap on increasing selling price to sell.

    Scope – Govt/Private buyers

    AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine – March Delivery 
    1 40,000,000 doses (20,000,000 courses of treatment) 
    2 Proofed up from distributor to AstraZeneca 
    3 $40/dose = FOB $50/dose w/ full cold chain door-to-door delivery
    4 US based escrow with US Major Law Firm (or) direct payment. 

    Note Serious inquiries ONLY. All buyers and end users will be vetted before transaction can progress.
    They are in open market. Restricted to pharmacy wholesalers

    So, if you happen to run a country – you might want to place an order!

    I can't get one dose for myself but I can get 40M for others….





  5. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


    • The S&P energy ETF (XLE -2.7%) trails in today's sector standings as oil prices fell slightly after industry data showed a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories.
    • March WTI crude (CL1:COM) -0.7% to $52.95/bbl after the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude supply climbed 2.6M barrels in the week to Jan. 15, compared with forecasts for a decline; the EIA is due to release its weekly inventory report on Friday.
    • "Oil prices look a tad vulnerable to potential profit-taking after U.S. crude stockpiles bearishly rose," says Axi chief market strategist Stephen Innes.
    • Exxon Mobil (XOM -2.6%) and Chevron (CVX -3.2%) are off sharply after Jefferies initiated the former with an Underperform rating and downgraded Chevron to Hold.
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY -4%) is the weakest performer in the sector, Schlumberger (SLB -3.5%) slips to its lowest in 10 days ahead of tomorrow's release of Q4 results, and Kinder Morgan (KMI -2.7%) backtracks from a seven-month high after beating Q4 estimates and issuing above-consensus earnings guidance for 2021.
    • Also: MRO -3.7%COP -3.4%EPD -3.1%WMB -2.9%VLO -2.5%PSX -2.4%.
    • ETFs: USOXLEUCOXOPVDEGUSHOIH
    • "Trends are definitely moving in the right direction for Exxon," RB Equity writes in a bullish analysis recently posted on Seeking Alpha.
    • Familiar names topped ARK Investment Management's actively-managed ETFs last quarter, while work-from-home stocks pulled down performance as enthusiasm for recovery stocks arrived with vaccine approvals.
    • And in her note about Q4 performance, ARK CEO Cathie Wood said it looks like cyclical sectors are catching up.
    • The flagship, diverse ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK-1.1%) saw net asset value rise 37.44% in Q4, with market price up 37.55%, compared with a 12.15% rise in the S&P 500 (SP500+0.1%) and a 13.96% gain for the MSCI World Net Index (URTH-0.1%).
    • Tesla (TSLA-0.1%) added 605 basis points to ARKK's performance, the most of any component, followed by Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP-2%) at 407 bps and Roku (ROKU-1.3%), which added 404.
    • Zoom Video (ZM-0.8%) was ARKK's worst performer in the quarter, at -52 bps. Compugen (CGEN-2%) took away 45 basis points and LendingTree (TREE-0.4%) followed at -38.

    • The ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG-2.2%) NAV rose 47.71% in Q4, with market price rising 47.61%, the best performer of the actively managed funds.
    • Pacific Biosciences (PACB-3.6%) led, adding 830 bps to performance, with Crispr adding 659 and Twist Bioscience (TWST-1.3%) at 416.
    • Trailing were Compugen, -87 bps, Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI-3.2%), -23, and Seres Therapeutics (MCRB-3%), also at -23.
    • "We believe Compugen detracted primarily because of the ongoing debate around the importance of Fc-FcyR engagement in enhancing the activity of two novel checkpoint inhibitors, TIGIT and PVRIG," ARK wrote.
    • The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW-0.1%) posted an NAV return of 36.56% in Q4 with market price up 36.52%.
    • Top contributors were Tesla, 581 bps, Roku, 493 bps and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC-11.3%) at 347. Biggest detractors were Zoom, -49, Huya (HUYA+2.2%) -44 and Alibaba (BABA-2.1%), -38.
    • ARK said it "views Zoom as a complete communications platform, not just a work-from-home beneficiary" and thinks "Zoom’s rapid expansion to phones, video APIs, and email positions the company to capture a large portion of the $1.5 trillion total addressable market for enterprise communications."
    • The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ+0.6%) rose 34.08% last quarter, while market price rose 34.11%.
    • Tesla's at the top again, +679 bps, followed by Materialise (MTLS+0.5%) +299 and China's BYD Co. (OTC:BYDIY), +206. The bottom decliners are Workhorse Group (WKHS+0.2%) at -56, ExOne (XONE+0.4%) -26 and Splunk (SPLK+0.8%) -8 bps.
    • "We believe ExOne depreciated on no news in particular other than a SPAC’s acquisition of Desktop Metal which aims to compete with ExOne in the future," ARK wrote.
    • Rounding out the managed funds is the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF-0.1%), the weakest of the group, but still with NAV up 26.02% in Q4 and market price up 25.85%.
    • Square (SQ-3%) contributed 363 bps, with Pinterest (PINS+1.1%) +255 and MercadoLibre (MELI-1.7%) +232. The big detractors were Alibaba, -82, LendingTree -43 and Z Holdings (OTCPK:YAHOF-1.5%) at -35.
    • "Pinterest could be benefitting from an accelerated shift in the advertising market from linear TV to social media platforms," ARK added.
    • Stifel started PINS with a Buy rating today.
    • Looking to the broader economic picture, since "the bottom of the market during the coronavirus crisis, growth stocks particularly those associated with companies solving problems created by the pandemic – have outperformed value stocks significantly. We believe this divergence could be a function of fears of a relapse into recession and the 'creative destruction' that innovation could foment in traditional value sectors like financial services, energy, and industrials," Wood wrote.
    • "That said, it appears that cyclical sectors around the world now are beginning to benefit as producers continue to catch up with consumer demand and as significant capital spending declines in energy and other disrupted industries curb supply and support prices."
    • ARK's next step in managed funds is the ARK Space Exploration ETF, a sector that made up 6.1% of ARKQ in Q4 and 1.1% of ARKK.
    • Alcoa (AA -11.3%) plunges by the most in three months after warning that higher costs may weigh on current earnings, overriding better than expected Q4 results.
    • The company said it "anticipates lower quarterly performance" because of rising costs in its alumina business and lower selling prices for bauxite.
    • While the magnitude and duration of the pandemic is unknown, Alcoa expects aluminum shipments of 2.M-2.8M metric tons this year, a drop from the 3M tons shipped in 2020.
    • Alcoa's free cash flow remains "elusive" and its near-term headwinds collectively mitigate the benefits from higher aluminum and alumina prices, BMO analyst David Gagliano says, maintaining his Market Perform rating and $26 price target.
    • While Alcoa's Q4 EBITDA was its highest since Q3 2019, FCF was negative for the quarter and for the full year, Jefferies' Christopher LaFemina notes in reiterating his Hold rating and $23 price target.
    • The $587M sale of the Warrick Rolling Mill will help lower net debt, but with $315M in pension contribution due through 2021, limited free cash flow will be available for further debt reduction, says Deutsche Bank's Chris Terry, who also rates the stock as a Hold.
    • Alcoa's debt is not a concern, and significant demand from the automotive industry could lift future sales, Lisbon Stock Picks writes in a new bullish analysis published on Seeking Alpha.

    • Solar stocks (TAN +4%) surge across the board, a day after Pres. Biden moved to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and signed a series of executive orders focused on combating climate change just hours after taking the oath of office.
    • SunPower (SPWR +14.4%), SunWorks (SUNW +25.7%), Maxeon Solar (MAXN +12%) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.2%) have jumped to new 52-week highs today, while others sporting sizeable gains include ENPH +4.1%SEDG +5.5%FSLR +4.8%NOVA +5.3%RUN +5.8%.
    • Polar Power (POLA +38%), with exposure to solar hybrid type systems, hits all-time highs.
    • Fuel cell and biofuel makers also trade mostly higher, including PLUG +3.3%FCEL +5.2%BLDP +1.7%GEVO +7.3%REGI +3.6%.
    • Meanwhile, coal companies are plunging: BTU -13.6%CEIX -7.1%CTRA -5.1%ARCH -2.9%.
    • ENPH, RUN, SEDG and SPWR shares all have more than tripled over the past year.
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) plans to release an "expensive" VR headset as early as next year, according to Bloomberg sources..
    • The pricing for the headset will come in above rivals, which range from $300 to $900, due in part to development challenges.
    • Some Apple insiders told Bloomberg the company might only sell one headset per day in each of its 500 retail stores.
    • The headsets could include powerful chips like the recently launched in-house M1 silicon, higher resolution displays, and a cooing fan.
    • Apple's product will be a standalone VR headset, similar to Facebook's Oculus.
    • Codenamed N301, the headsets are in prototype stage so the details could still change.
    • Apple is still planning for its AR glasses, which the company had targeted for a 2023 release but will likely take longer.
    • In other Apple news, Morgan Stanley (Overweight) raises the company's price target from $144 to $154 ahead of the Q1 results on January 27.
    • The firm expects a "record quarter" with checks pointing to "strength across its portfolio of Products & Services."
    • The print will also include the iPhone 12 launch and continuing tailwinds from the remote work and learning trends.
    • Apple shares up 3% to $136.20.
    • Last quarter, Apple reported an iPhone sales miss and weak Greater China revenue thanks to the pandemic-delayed iPhone 12 launch.
    • It is not all rocket science trying to compute what stocks could benefit from investor interest in space ETFs this year.
    • While many of the usual suspects like Maxar Technologies (NYSE:MAXR) and Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) have already been bid up aggressively, Canaccord Research analyst Ken Herbert says plenty of "enabling technologies" names could be part of the space ETFs.
    • That list includes 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD), Albany International (NYSE:AIN), Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX), Comtech (NASDAQ:CMTL), Cubic (NYSE:CUB), Elbit (NASDAQ:ESLT), EOS, Gilat (NASDAQ:GILT), Gogo (NASDAQ:GOGO), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), Kratos (NASDAQ:KTOS), KVH Industries (NASDAQ:KVHI), Leidos (NYSE:LDOS), Leonardo, Moog (NYSE:MOG.A), Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY), Raytheon Technologies (NYSE:RTX), Safran, Stratasys (NASDAQ:SSYS) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
    • For investors looking at the space catch-alls, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) has been trading for a while and the Ark Invest Space ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKX) is expected to debut this year. Is the Ark factor big? "ARK is demonstrably one of the greatest asset gathering forces in the universe. Their new ARKX ETF will raise enough money to reach to the moon," writes Chris DeMuth.
    • Space IPOs are also anticipated this year
    • 30-year fixed rate mortgage average 2.77% for the week ending Jan. 21, down slightly from 2.79% in the prior week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
    • Compares with 3.60% at this time a year ago.
    • "We’re now seeing rates fluctuate a bit as political and economic factors drive Treasury yields higher, said Freddie Chief Economist Sam Khater. "However, we forecast rates to remain relatively low this year as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates anchored near zero for a longer period of time, if needed until the economy rebounds."
    • 15-year FRM averages 2.21% vs. 2.23% in the prior week and 3.04% a year ago.
    • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage averages 2.80%, down from 3.12% in the previous week and 3.28% a year ago.
    • 10-year Treasury yield rises 3 basis points to 1.11%, climbing up from post-pandemic lows; in early August the yield was 0.51%.
    • Homebuilder stocks are gaining strongly in Thursday's session, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB) up 2.2%; by name: D.R. Horton (DHI +1.8%), KB Home (KBH +2.8%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.4%), and Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%).
    • Mortgage REITs are also firmly in the green; iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM +0.3%). By name: Annaly Capital (NLY +1.0%), AGNC Investment (AGNC +1.3%), Chimera Investment (CIM +0.8%), Two Harbors Investment (TWO +1.3%).
    • Home construction stocks have outpaced the S&P 500 and mortgage REIT stocks in the past year (chart below).
    • Earlier, December housing starts and building permits continue to exceed expectations.
    • SA contributor Daniel Jones considers DHI attractively priced, especially if growth continues.

  6. Phil / TOT – I'm looking for companies that can benefit long term from a move to renewable energy, and have financial heft to stay around long term.   Total seems to get this…. It has been investing in solar tech and companies for the last 20 years and has pledged to have sold make up 20% of its rev by 2030 ( from 5 % today).  It also has large stakes in several renewable energy companies in US and globally.   I thint it will also benefit from re-opening with its Gas and oil portfolio… Currently Paying just short of a 7% dividend ( historically this has hover around 5%) ….   I think it's in a good position to benefit from US and global move to renewables, and will be around for the long term.    I think this may be a good dividend stock with covered calls / puts …   Ideally i'd like to but this for 40 sh as I see earnings for  '20 – '23 being. 1.3, 3.3, 4.0. aging gaining from incentives in US ( which have not been announced per say)… This could the at 50 to 55 dollar second in '23. at 12 to 15 multiple the sis a 50 to 60 dollar stock ….   It does not have long term options but it's dividend seems solid.   I'm looking at the following….

    1000 Buy Shares at 42.5 ish maybe a bit lower.

    sell 5X  the Aug 40 puts for 3.5

    Sell 5X of the 45 calls for 3.3

    Thoughts?


  7. Phil . TOT – another Norte…….  I've usually kept XOM in y portfolio as an anchor, but removed this 2 or 3 years ago…… was also looking for a new anchor in the energy space….   


  8. batman worked on this stock this morning. not too bad but directly 1000 shares????


  9. TOT/Batman – Well they were in our Future is Now Portfolio for that very reason.  We made too much money so we closed them out and we missed our chance to get back in when they dipped in October.  At $3.09, it's a very attractive dividend.  I'd fully cover the short calls but, other than that, I agree with the choices.  

    • Citron Research posts its YouTube video on GameStop (GME +4.8%) on the downside potential for the retailer.
    • Citron's Andrew Left maintains that there is no short squeeze on the GME at the moment and says the sales numbers don't lie in that valuation is way too high. Citron expects negative EBITDA for GameStop with the model "just not working." Left sees GameStop going back to $20 after its jaunt over $40.
    • So far, shares of GameStop are holding up following the Citron video and keeping their gains for the week
    • The federal judge presiding over antitrust cases against Google (GOOG +1.1%GOOGL +1%) has given U.S. states until Feb. 4 to start turning over their documents in the action.
    • Judge Amit Mehta is overseeing both the federal Justice Dept. and state antitrust cases against the tech giant.
    • The states sought to begin turning over materials in mid-March, but Mehta has rejected that overture, ordering them to start presenting materials they plan to use.
    • DOJ's Kenneth Dintzer says he expects much of the government's material to be turned over to Google's lawyers on Jan. 29. Google attorney John Schmidtlein says that while he expects a large volume of material from Microsoft (MSFT +0.7%), the materials that Google has received so far from DOJ doesn't include any of that.
    • Mehta had previously set a tentative trial date of Sept. 12, 2023.
    • Google said earlier today it has come to an agreement to pay French publishers for news.
    • ViacomCBS is higher today (VIAC +3.8%VIACA +3.7%) as Needham reiterates its Buy rating ahead of a catalyst coming via an analyst day that should shed some light on the upcoming launch of streaming service Paramount Plus.
    • The firm is expecting a revaluation with the launch of the service, which is expected to clarify the ViacomCBS streaming strategy years after the launch of CBS All Access.
    • It's expecting a doubling of the company's streaming revenues by fiscal 2022.
    • And given that, applying the average revenue multiples from Netflix and Roku (enterprise value to 2022 revenue estimates), the value of Paramount plus would top ViacomCBS' entire enterprise value today.
    • It's raised its price target on VIAC to $55, now implying 22% upside
    • On the first full day of the Biden Administration the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is being highlighted as a potential catch-all bet that the electric vehicle sector will benefit from an increased level of support from DC.
    • The top five holding in the fund are on the obvious side (Tesla, Qualcomm, Nio, Nvidia and Alphabet) – but further down the list are names like Livent (NYSE:LTHM), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), Aptiv (NYSE:APTV), Albermarle (NYSE:ALB) and NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) that may not trade with the same premiums.
    • Google search interest on electric vehicle stocks is in a definite uptrend.
    • Yesterday, IHS Markit posted on Seeking Alpha its detailed forecast for electric vehicle sales this year.
    • Air taxing start-up Joby Aero is considering a deal to go public through a SPAC at a valuation of around $5b, Reuters said, citing people familiar.
    • Joby hired banks to garner interest from SPACs.
    • Joby has been working on a all-electric, zero-emissions vertical aircraft. The company agreed to take over Uber's (NYSE:UBER) flying taxi unit Elevate last month.
    • A weak earnings report and guide from United Airlines (UAL -5.3%) has rattled the airline sector.
    • Mesa Air (MESA -3.9%), American Airlines (AAL -2.6%), Spirit Airlines (SAVE -2.5%) and JetBlue (JBLU -2.4%) are all lower on the day.
    • Barclays thinks United management is conservatively forecasting a slow return for business travel demand to ramp up in 2022 post-mass vaccinations. Margins are seen hitting pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
    • "We believe current travel weakness should not come as a surprise to most, given seasonally soft leisure demand in the first quarter coupled with the recent uptick in US COVID cases. With liquidity expected to be close to $20bn by the end of 1Q21, we suspect United's focus will be less on near-term cash burn and more on leveraging an expected $2bn in structural cost savings, likely stemming from improved labor efficiencies and a complete network redesign," updates analyst Brandon Oglenski.
    • The Barclays stance supports a long-term bullish view on the airline sector.
    • UAL management indicated during its conference call that cutting costs is a top priority.

  10. Phil / TOT – makes sense on the full cover…..  possible 12 % run in 8 months, or drop purchase price to 41 ish…. and if I pick up more at 37 net on the puts that would be ok as well…


  11. INTC knocked it out of the park.


  12. Phil / IBM,

    Just the opposite for IBM .. missed sales estimate and down -5%.  Are you a buyer down here?


  13. IBM/Jeddah – I'll have to read up on why they missed but most likely it's a forgiveable offense.  Our target was only $125 in 2023 anyway.

    IBM Long Call 2023 20-JAN 110.00 CALL [IBM @ $131.65 $1.57] 20 10/12/2020 (729) $50,000 $25.00 $3.13 $25.00     $28.13 $1.53 $6,250 12.5% $56,250
    IBM Short Call 2023 20-JAN 125.00 CALL [IBM @ $131.65 $1.57] -20 10/12/2020 (729) $-38,000 $19.00 $1.25     $20.25 - $-2,500 -6.6% $-40,500
    IBM Short Put 2023 20-JAN 100.00 PUT [IBM @ $131.65 $1.57] -10 10/12/2020 (729) $-11,750 $11.75 $-2.00     $9.75 $-0.55 $2,000 17.0% $-9,750

    Glad we jumped on INTC before it left the station.

    INTC Short Put 2022 21-JAN 30.00 PUT [INTC @ $62.46 $3.79] -10 3/12/2020 (365) $-3,000 $3.00 $-2.43 $7.00     $0.58 $-0.02 $2,425 80.8% $-575
    INTC Short Put 2022 21-JAN 50.00 PUT [INTC @ $62.46 $3.79] -20 7/24/2020 (365) $-17,000 $8.50 $-4.75     $3.75 $-0.75 $9,500 55.9% $-7,500
    INTC Long Call 2023 20-JAN 35.00 CALL [INTC @ $62.46 $3.79] 50 11/17/2020 (729) $67,000 $13.40 $15.10     $28.50 $1.95 $75,500 112.7% $142,500
    INTC Short Call 2023 20-JAN 50.00 CALL [INTC @ $62.46 $3.79] -50 11/17/2020 (729) $-31,250 $6.25 $10.38     $16.63 $1.98 $-51,875 -166.0% $-83,125

    Also blown through our target way ahead of schedule. 


  14. I'm a little late to the IBM party so looking to build up a decent position given the opportunity.  this may be just that.


  15. Phil / INTC.   This is not what the street was pricing into the stock…..  may have a pull back tomorrow…

    New Intel CEO says company will handle 'majority' of product production; TSMC shares fall • 5:31 PM

    Earlier this month, reports suggested that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) held advanced talks with foundry TSMC (NYSE:TSM) about outsourcing production.

    On the Q4 earnings call, incoming Intel CEO Pat Geisinger says he believes "a majority" of the company's 2023 products will still be handled internally, though it's "likely" outside foundries will be used more than in the past.

    The company also declined to provide FY21 guidance at this time. Intel says the forecast will come no later than the Q1 earnings call.

    Intel also plans to provide more details about its 2023 product plans after Geisinger formally takes the reins on February 15.

    TSMC shares are down 1.6% after Geisinger's comments.

    Earlier, Intel reported Q4 beats and upside Q1 guidance.


  16. IBM/Jeddah – Q4 Sales were $20.4Bn, down 6% from last year but there was a 9% increase in cloud offset by a 24% decline in transaction processing BECAUSE EVERYTHING IS CLOSED!!!  IBM is the backbone to most of retail since they were there first and they are still the legacy systems for most major retailers.   Similarly, Global Tech Services was down 6% BECAUSE EVERYTHING IS CLOSED!!!  Systems were down 18% (no one is investing this year) and that caused Financing to be down 5% SINCE THEY FINANCE THE SYSTEMS!!!   

    For 2021 IBM projects Free Cash Flow of $11-12Bn and, at $122.30, you can buy the whole company for $117Bn.  

    This will be a good one to jump on.

    INTC/Batman – CEO said INTC will continue to handle most of their production with TSM augmenting.  Nothing wrong with that (but TSM will have a bad day).  

    No guidance!  They punted to Q1 – I like that.

    New CEO is officially in on Feb 15th so makes sense that he wants to wait on 2021 forecast.

    Well, this one is done – I guess we need another Stock of the Year already.  Oh wait, there's IBM on sale!