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Testy Tuesday – S&P 3,850 Edition

S&P 3,850.

That's 1,000 points (35%) over our Must Hold Level though we have discussed how low tax rates are adding 10% and stimulus is adding 20% so that accounts for most of the growth over the past two years.  It's still a very impressive chart and, if we can hold this level (I doubt it), the next stop will be 4,000, or 3,990 to be exact, at the 40% line.  

Of course, Biden has been elected so the additional $1.9Tn in stimulus (10% of our GDP) is baked in for Q1 and Biden has said he will maintain the low Corporate Tax Rates set by Trump (for now) so we STILL have that 30% underlying support to the index – as long as no one changes their minds.  The other 5% depends on earnings and so far, so good as most of the reporting companies have managed not to disappoint this quarter.

Overall, earnings for S&P 500 companies, DESPITE 20% of our GDP being direct Government stimus and another 20% of our GDP as Fed stimulus, are down 14.4% from last year but most companies are projecting some form of normalization in the second half and Wall Street wants us very much to look forward to a virus-free future and not back to a virus-ravaged past.  

Image

The US is, in fact, at Biden's goal now of vaccinating over 1M people per day (1.13M yesterday), but that needs to be improved upon as that's just 90M people or just over 25% of the population by the end of April – certainly not the "normalcy" Corporations are looking for.  Even 50% by the end of July would make for a poor Q3 so we must do better but, thankfully, in countries where they are vaccinating heavily, infection rates are dropping rapidly.

Israel is leading the World so far, with almost half their population vaccinated already.  UAE is at 25% and US is at 6.87% but it's only Biden's first week in office, so hopefully we can get things going and start acting like a First World Country again.  

Israel is vaccinating 2 out of 100 citizens per day and they expect to be at 100% by March.  We are currently vaccinating 0.34 out of 100 per day – not a good pace to get everyone vaccinated by Christmas – we must do better!  We do vaccinate over 200M people every flu season so this goal should not be out of reach for America – we just need the leadership to focus on the propblem and hopefully they are now starting to.

Meanwhile, investors couldn't be more bullish (or could they?).  In 2020, 7.47Bn options contracts were traded and that is 45% higher than the previous record set in 2018.  Much of this money has come from small-time traders hoping to make fast gains by buying short-term calls on rising stocks – especially through "free" platforms like Robin Hood.  

The skew is evident in something called the put-call ratio, which shows how many contracts are betting on gains compared with those betting on losses through “put” options. On Friday, the 50-day moving average of that ratio was 0.42, near the lowest level in two decades. The last time it was this tilted for this long was 2000, meaning options investors are more optimistic, or greedy, than they have been in over two decades – since the great crash.

Read into it what you will – you can't call an end to these things – you just know it will end at some point.

13,500 is a good shorting line on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures with tight stops above, as is, of course, 3,850 on the S&P (/ES) Futures.  They are lined up with 31,000 on the Dow (/YM) and 2,180 on the Russell (/RTY) and if two are below and a 3rd one confirms – it's a good time to short the lagging index but tight stops are the key – it's a crazy market and we could go higher before this bubble bursts.

 

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. Good morning!

    Forgot to mention above that China sold off 1.5% and finished at the lows so I'm not sure what we're so excited about this morning.  Mostly it's the Dollar dropping 0.5% 

    That's a good game to prop up the markets while the Banksters are selling off their holdings.  It's very easy to short-term manipulate the Dollar like that.

    What a run on /NG!

    /RB flying too

    • The broader market continues it momentum from late-session Monday, with the beaten-down cyclical taking the baton as tech takes a breather.
    • The S&P (SP500) +0.2% is enjoying broad-based, but modest, gains. The Nasdaq (COMP) +0.1% is weakest of the major averages, while the Dow (DJI) +0.4% is outperforming after good quarterly numbers from Johnson & Johnson.
    • January Consumer Confidence: 89.3 vs. 88.5 consensus; 87.1 prior (revised from 88.6).
    • CarParts.com (PRTS +24.4%) rallies on launching a new dedicated shopping hub for the hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle community.
    • In recent months, CarParts.com’s product offering for EVs and hybrids has grown to include over 0.7M applications for the repair, maintenance, and enhancement of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and EVs.
    • The shopping interface for EV and hybrid replacement parts leans into the customer-focused experience used across CarParts.com’s entire sales platform, featuring search by both part and vehicle make.
    • “As EVs and hybrid vehicles age, consumers are more likely to buy aftermarket parts. Drivers are still in the adoption phase, but we are now seeing a growing number of green vehicles hitting our sweet spot of 6 to 15 years old. The EV wave is here to stay, and CarParts.com is here to be a part of it,” said CarParts.com CEO, Lev Peker.
    • Shares of Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) are up 32.58% after the company announced a plant-based product deal with PepsiCo (PEP +0.8%). In early action, Beyond Meat has traded as high as $221.00 per share. Volume on BYND is over 10M shares after only 14 minutes of trading action.
    • The early word from Wall Street on the Beyond Meat development is very positive as analysts pointing to the upside from producing snack and beverage products in tandem with PepsiCo.
    • Both Q4 GAAP and adjusted earnings were $2.38 per share, resulting in year-on-year declines of 10.7% and 5.8% on a GAAP- and adjusted-basis, respectively.
    • Revenue by segment: Safety and Industrial +12.7%; Transportation and Electronics +2.3%; Health Care +5.4%; Consumer +10.6%.
    • 3M's (MMM +2%) operating cash flow was $2.5B,with adjusted free cash flow of $2.1B contributing to adjusted free cash flow conversion of 151%.
    • The company also paid $848M in cash dividends to shareholders during Q4 and reduced total debt by $0.8B, or down 4%, and net debt by $1.3B, or 9%, sequentially.
    • "Throughout 2020 we distributed two billion respirators globally and supported the development and manufacturing of vaccines and therapeutics to help the world respond to COVID-19," CEO Mike Roman declared. "We also took significant actions to transform and build 3M for the future, while advancing our core values. Moving forward we will continue to prioritize investments in growth, productivity and sustainability as we build on our progress and deliver strong results in 2021."
    • EPS guidance was finally given: FY 2021 earnings to be in the range of $9.20 to $9.70 per share. Total sales growth is also expected in the range of 5%-8%, with organic local-currency growth between 3%-6%.
    • Speaking to Bloomberg, Albert Bourla the CEO of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) says, the company is planning to accelerate the supply of its COVID-19 vaccine co-developed with BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX).
    • Citing the initial targets of supplying 100M doses by the end of Q1 2021, and 200M doses by the beginning of Q3 2021, Mr. Bourla says the company was raising the former to 120M doses while targeting to achieve the latter two months earlier.
    • Pfizer has also supplied governments with 36 different combinations of commercially available needles and syringes to enable the extraction of the last dose from the vials.
    • It will increase the vaccine supply by 20%, Mr. Bourla said last week, and the FDA issued a label change in that regard last week
    • Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) -0.3% pre-market after reporting a slight miss on Q4 adjusted earnings while revenues rose 15% Y/Y to $4.5B, above expectations, helped by higher gold prices.
    • Q4 GAAP earnings rose to $708M, or $0.48/share, from $9M, or breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.
    • Q4 copper sales volume fell less than expected, -4.4% Y/Y to 866M lbs., while net copper cash costs fell 23% to $1.28/lb.; gold sales volume slipped 7.6% Y/Y to 293K oz.
    • Average realized prices in Q4 were $3.40/lb. for copper, up 24%, and $1,870/oz. for gold, up 25%.
    • Freeport trims its copper sales volume forecast for FY 2021 to 3.8B lbs. from 3.85B lbs. previously, with net copper cash costs averaging $1.25/lb.; it sees gold sales volume of 1.3M oz. vs. 1.4M oz. prior guidance.
    • The company guides for 2021 capital spending of ~$2.3B after total costs and expenses fell 11.2% in 2020 to $2.79B
    • The European Union cleared a path for companies to receive about €2.9B ($3.5B) of state aid for battery projects that will support the goal of producing more electric vehicles on the continent.
    • The European Commission sees the aid triggering more than 3X the set amount in private investment to bring the total spent to about €12B euros. The aid will go to 42 companies, with beneficiaries including BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Stellantis N.V. (NYSE:STLA) and startup Northvolt AB.
    • The European Battery Innovation project was jointly prepared and notified by Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden.
    • "Europe will cement in this way its position as a global hot spot for battery investment," says European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic. "This pan-European project will help revolutionize the battery market," he adds.
    • The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is a catch-all investment for the sector.
    • The jolt to the electric vehicle sector arrives ahead of Tesla's earnings day tomorrow.
    • In the last two years, we've introduced lean strategies across the company and have seen tremendous results on cash flow, GE (NYSE:GE) CEO Larry Culp and CFO Carolina Happe said on the company's earnings call. They also highlighted a future transformation by concentrating on the energy transition, precision healthcare and the future of flight.
    • Shares continue to surge in premarket trade, advancing by 10% as Q&A begins…
    • JPMorgan: Will you be growing assets at GE Capital on a core basis, outside of insurance, in 2021? We are planning on keeping that flat.
    • Bank of America: On aviation, plane retirements have been below average this year. How do you account for that in 2021? We expect to see an uptick in the back half of 2021. While there's been a bit of a big bid-ask spread in the retirement transition, we expect to see some of the USM effect, given the nature of our CFA obligations, and it will take a little bit until that market recovers. We expect deliveries to outpace retirements, which will be a net positive effect on us, but I'm not predicting a time frame.
    • Melius: What's left in Corporate that you plan on parsing out to the business? Over the last few years, you've seen a reduction at the core, and some of that go out to the business. There are a couple of things in place, but I'd rather talk about it internally, before I comment on it externally.
    • RBC: On aviation, the airlines are restarting deferred engine overhauls. How do you plan to flex capacity up to meet that demand? We didn't bring that activity level to zero, but we resized it to deal with COVID effects. As an operational matter, we'll leverage some of the excess costs that are still there. We also have plans in place to have the right cost structure along the way, but we will be dealing with limits in a particular window. That's already a conversation that we're having with customers as they think about the latter half of 2021.
    • Morgan Stanley: Given that much of FCF is working capital, and not earnings, how much does the business depend on aviation? There's a bit of renewables in the FCF forecast range as well, but over the course of 2020 we saw our power businesses were going to work they're way through. This will be a year of climate, clearly, which will help renewables. We also have a good sight on Healthcare and I like the way we are executing.
    • Goldman Sachs: There's never been a better time to divest assets, so how are you thinking about that in 2021? With respect to portfolio evolution, I don't think any of our businesses are close to optimizing they're underlying performance. We want to build on the momentum we've seen last year. We still have a lot in front of us to do well by our shareholders and customers.
    • Barclays: Regarding the outlook for the Power portfolio, it looks like it is one of a few areas where cash performance looks weak for 2021. Can you comment on that? We are encouraged by what we saw in 2020, but losing less money is not making money, and we'll be talking about this in the first part of 2022 as well. The nuclear business is small, but stable, and exiting the new build coal business is going to be a multi-year effort, but we expect this to come through for us as well.

    • Net earnings from continuing operations of $1.8B, or $6.38 per share, up 20% versus the prior year, but slightly missing consensus forecasts.
    • Sales by segment: Aeronautics +5%; Missiles and Fire Control +4%; Rotary and Missions Systems +8%; Space +14%.
    • Quarterly cash deployment: Capex of $722M; No share repurchases; Paid cash dividends of $728M; Backlog of $147.1B.
    • Outlook for 2021: Diluted EPS of $26.00-$26.30 (vs. consensus estimates of 26.14), on net sales of $67.1B-$68.5B (vs. consensus estimates of $68.02B). Shares of LMT are down 0.7% in premarket trade.
    • Dhierin Bechai is still bullish on the stock, citing contract awards (IDIQs included) that topped $123B in 2020.
    • Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) permanently suspends MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for policy violations related to election misinformation.
    • Lindell used his personal and business Twitter accounts to promote unsubstantiated claims of widespread voting fraud in the U.S. presidential election.
    • Earlier this month, Twitter permanently suspended former President Trump from the platform.
    • Twitter shares are up 0.9% pre-market to $48.27.
    • Yesterday, Twitter rolled out the new "Birdwatch" crowd-sourced project for identifying misinformation.
    • Things are not going to quiet down today on GameStop (NYSE:GME) after a frenzied week of trading involving Melvin Capital, Citron Research and a whole army of traders on the r/wallstreetbets subreddit.
    • Fintech company S3 Partners, which tracks short interest moves on a regular basis, warned last night that GameStop holders should strap in for even more short squeeze pressure.
    • Meanwhile, Wall Street is largely silent on GameStop this morning, with none of the firms covering the stock locked in with a Buy-equivalent rating before the share price moonshot.
    • Shares of GameStop are up 18.75% to $91.19 in premarket action at last check. The 52-week trading range is $2.57 to $159.18 with the chart resembling an EKG over the last week.
    • Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) jumps 8% premarket after being selected by the French National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products (ANSM) to supply Good Manufacturing Processes (GMP) certified medical cannabis products for experimentation in France.
    • The experiment (18-24 months) is due to begin in Q1.
    • Tilray products will be administered to patients for whom existing treatments do not provide sufficient relief and for certain therapeutic indications.
    • The company will export medical cannabis products from its GMP-certified facility in Cantanhede, Portugal.
    • Pot stocks are higher this morning: Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) +2.5%, Hexo (NYSE:HEXO) +6.7%, Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) +1.8%, Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) +0.4%, Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) +1.7%, OrganiGram Holdings (NASDAQ:OGI) +2.5%
    • Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$2.55 beats by $0.38; GAAP EPS of -$3.47 misses by $0.41.
    • Revenue of $808M (-63.8% Y/Y) misses by $5.37M.
    • Passenger revenue of $657M vs. consensus of $706.4M.
    • "We are not out of the woods, but we are seeing signs of brighter days ahead," said Air Group CEO Brad Tilden. "The people of Alaska and Horizon have really shown their grit over the past year, and the rest of the leadership team and I could not be more proud of them. We're positioned to come out of this crisis with our balance sheet unimpaired and our competitive advantages intact, and both of these set us up for a strong future and a long runway for growth."
    • Shares +0.17% PM.
    • Press Release
    • American Express (NYSE:AXP) falls 2.6% in premarket trading after the company said it's remaining cautious about the pace of recovery and is focused on getting back to its original EPS expectations it had for 2020 in 2022.
    • Q4 EPS of $1.76 exceeds the average analyst estimate of $1.30 and fell from $2.03 a year ago.
    • Q4 consolidated total revenue net of interest expense was $9.35B vs. consensus of $9.32B; fell 18% Y/Y, reflecting decline in card member spending and average discount rate vs. the prior year.
    • Provisions for credit losses resulted in a $111M benefit, reflecting a reserve release of $674M due to an improving macroeconomic outlook during the quarter and strong credit performance, as well as lower net write-offs.
    • Q4 proprietary billed business growth fell 16% Y/Y, with travel and entertainment segment down 65% Y/Y and non-travel and entertainment up 4%.
    • Global Consumer Services Group net income of $1.1B vs. $981M a year ago.
    • Global Commercial Services net income of $538M vs. $550M a year ago.
    • Global Merchant and Network Services net income of $208M declined from $474M a year ago.
    • "Card Member spending has continued to recover, and non-travel and entertainment spend exceeded pre-COVID levels for the second consecutive quarter," said Chairman and CEO Stephen J. Squeri.
    • Conference call at 8:30 AM ET.
    • Previously (Jan. 26): American Express EPS beats by $0.47, beats on revenue
    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ) shares are dipping slightly pre-market despite reporting upside Q4 results with relatively flat revenue of $34.7B. The FY21 forecast includes $5.00-5.15 EPS, above the $4.97B consensus.
    • On the Consumer side, revenue was down 1% Y/Y to $23.9B. Retail postpaid net adds were 357,000 and the churn was 0.96%. Fios net adds totaled 92,000.
    • Business revenue was essentially flat on the year at $8.1B. Retail postpaid adds were 346,000 and the churn was 1.19%. Fios added 3,000 in the quarter, which adds to the Consumer gain for the highest Fios internet net adds since 2014.
    • Wireless service sales increased 2% to $16.7M. Retail postpaid net adds were 703,000 with a 1.01% churn. Wireless equipment sales were the weakness in the business.
    • Media sales were up 11% to $2.3B, the first year-over-year growth for the unit since the Yahoo acquisition in 2017, driven by stronger ad trends.
    • Press release.
    • Previously: Verizon EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue (Jan. 26 2021)
    • The German health minister has told the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that the country’s government has procured a new antibody-based therapy against COVID-19, according to dw.com.
    • "Starting next week, the monoclonal antibodies will be used in Germany as the first country in the EU. Initially in university clinics," the minister has said, adding that "the federal government has bought 200,000 doses for €400 million ($487 million)."
    • Both Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) have received FDA’s emergency use authorization for their monoclonal antibody therapies against COVID-19 to treat patients who are not hospitalized but are at high risk of developing the disease.
    • Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) +1.5% post-market after reporting Q4 adjusted earnings that easily beat analyst expectations as revenues jumped 10% Y/Y to $2.6B.
    • The company says Q4 adjusted EBITDA climbed 36% Y/Y to $366.7M, while cash flow from operations slid 66% to $138M.
    • Q4 operating income for steel operations more than doubled Q/Q to $298M, based on significant flat roll steel metal spread expansion, as strong demand and tight supply dynamics propelled selling values.
    • "Based on strong domestic steel fundamentals, we are optimistic regarding the North American steel market dynamics and believe steel consumption will experience growth this year," the company says. "We expect to see continued steel price strength and strong customer demand in 2021."
    • AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) has called the reports of low efficacy rate attributed to its COVID-19 vaccine as "completely incorrect" Reuters reports.
    • The vaccine co-developed by AstraZeneca and the University Oxford had an efficacy of 8% or less than 10% in those above 65, German daily papers Handelsblatt and Bild said on Monday in separate reports, respectively.
    • The German government did not expect the vaccine to receive EU approval for the age group, the reports have added further.
    • The COVID-19 vaccine with emergency approval in many countries, including the U.K. and India, is likely to undergo the EMA (European Medicines Agency) review this week for conditional approval.
    • Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) strategic investment in daily fantasy sports platform SuperDraft, which will involve an initial minority equity position with the option to increase the stake over time up to 100% at pre-determined levels.
    • As part of the investment, SuperDraft will join the  online brands and World Series of Poker, Caesars Online Casino.
    • "The addition of daily fantasy sports fits seamlessly with our strategic vision for mobile and online sports," says Tom Reeg, CEO of Caesars. "SuperDraft's innovative multiplier game mode is unique in the marketplace, and we believe it offers a tremendous opportunity to strengthen our position in the sports gaming landscape."
    • Financial terms not disclosed.
    • Press release.
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) sees significant Fed purchases, the potential for slower prepayment rates, and attractive funding levels supporting risk/return for levered investors in agency MBS.
    • Q4 net spread and dollar roll income per share of 75 cents vs. consensus of 65 cents and 81 cents in Q3 2020.
    • Includes 32 cents per common share of dollar roll income associated with AGNC's $33.8B average net long position in forward purchases and sales of agency MBS in the TBA market.
    • Excludes ($0.20) per common share of estimated "catch-up" premium amortization cost due to change in projected constant prepayment rate ("CPR") estimates.
    • Still, AGNC slips 0.9% in after-hours trading.
    • Tangible net book value per common share of $16.71 at Dec. 31, 2020 vs. $15.88 at Sept. 30, 2020.
    • 7.5% economic return on  tangible common equity for the quarter, comprised of 36 cents dividends per common share and 83 cents increase in TNBV per common share; compares with +8.8% in prior quarter.
    • Cash and unencumbered agency MBS totaled ~$5.4B at Dec. 30 2020 vs. ~$5.2B at Sept. 30, 2020; excludes unencumbered CRT and non-agency securities and assets held at the company's broker-dealer subsidiary, Bethesda Securities.
    • AGNC's investment portfolio had a weighted average CPR of 27.6% in Q4 vs. 24.3% for the prior quarter.
    • "While agency MBS have appreciated along with the vast majority of financial assets over the past several quarters, significant Fed purchases, the potential for slower prepayments, and attractive funding levels that will likely remain for an extended period of time should continue to support the risk/return equation for levered investors in agency MBS," said CEO and Chief Investment Officer Gary Kain.
    • AGNC repurchased $101M, or more than 6.6M shares, of its common stock during Q4 at accretive levels.
    • Conference call on Jan. 26 at 8:30 AM ET.
    • Previously (Jan. 25): AGNC Investment EPS beats by $0.10, misses on net interest income

  3. Did any one followed my comments on JMIA???


  4. Phil// Any idea on what we can expect from APPLE regarding their earnings for this quarter.  Thanks.


  5. rookie AAPL take + 10% – 10% 


  6. Thanks Yodi.


  7. T picking up speed for tomorrow.!!! possible was a nice buy at 28 ???


  8. The Game Never Stops




  9. Shift to Electric Vehicles Spurs Bid to Make More Batteries in U.S.




  10. US consumer confidence rebounds in January




  11. Air pollution linked to higher risk of irreversible sight loss


  12. Any suggestions for EV charging stations stocks to build the position on?

    Thanks.


  13. Yodi / JMIA – I missed your comments


  14. interesting to watch:

    https://bitcointreasuries.org


  15. BIO, 

    Written on Sunday in the Friday publishing. Traded Monday around 52

     JMIA  the AMZN of Africa. Jumped 24% in one day. The company operates out of Berlin Germany.
    Question if it is an AMZN where will it land up? Buying the stock now I feel, is like jumping on a running train. Having said that, confirms the running train theory as the stock was trading in Nov. at 13$
    Question, can one make exceptions? 
    I am thinking of making the following plays.
     Buy sell a combo 4x Jan23 45 call (buy) (sell) 55 put at a cost of 4.88 ( 7.10 see note below) sell 2x Mar 21 65 calls for 9.60. If the potential of increase is very strong the 6 or 7 dollars different from today’s price will be chewed up quickly, so at least having 4 longs against 2 shorts will make it easier to roll the shorts. Obviously you could take full advantage of the 4 longs and sell 4 shorts, but with 2 shorts I feel better. Further note these are prices before opening and the stock may adjust by Monday.
    Even that the combo shows 4.88 taking call and put singly the cost shows some 7.10, so needs to be checked.!!!!
    The above play has potential gain of 10% by March, provided the stock stays in today’s range, going higher say 61 your gain is 15%. Interesting the cost for the above play is only 40$ (at 4.88!!!!)
    Now my second play is 2x Jan23 combo cost 4.88 (7.10????) and sell 2x Jan 23 70 call for 9.60. So in this case you even get out with a credit. Potential gain is 100 to 125 % in 726 days. Just sit tight and count the daisies. I like more the selling of shorter month calls as the potential income is much greater.
    Obviously you can change the option entries in proportion to the above. Just don’t bet the farm!!! Possible this stock is still in children’s shoes and may be another TSLA or AMZN. 
    The system set up by the company makes it easier for Africans to conduct their purchases.


  16. Todays position of JMIA

    JMIA210319C65 19-Mar-21 65 -1 CALL 9.5 9.9

    JMIA230120C45 20-Jan-23 45 3 CALL 33.6733 34.45

    JMIA230120P55 20-Jan-23 55 -3 PUT 28.0367  28.175


  17. JMIA/Yodi – Good call.

    AAPL/Rookie – I would think they did great with new phones and everyone stuck at home.  Kind of baked in at $142 though, which is $2.4Tn in market cap.They would have to make $70Bn in profits for the year just to be at 33x earnings.

    T/Yodi – Patience play.

    EV Charging/Rookie – BLNK, SBE and TPGY are the ones I know about.  Not sure which is worth playing but worth investigating.  BLNK is a big business already.  SBE is the biggest in the US, the majority of our market is ChargePoint.  TPGY is the biggest in Europe (25% share).

    Not much of a dip and we're coming back already.  


  18. Blood on the street Bought IBM Jan 23 100 call, when every one was passing out for 24.30, look at IBM today!!!!


  19. IBM/Yodi – That was easy money.

    Background: 

    • "The trend of accelerating home prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its sixth month with November's emphatic report," Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices Craig J. Lazzara commented.
    • November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices indicate that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. led by demand for more living space as Americans stick closer to home during the pandemic, as per S&P Dow Jones Indices data.
    • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.5% annual gain in November, vs. 8.4% in the previous month; marks its largest increase since May 2014.
    • The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.8%, up from 7.6% in the previous month; 20-City Composite posted a 9.1% Y/Y gain, up from 8% in the previous month.

    Region-wise:

    • Among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit), Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported highest Y/Y gains in November; Phoenix topped the list with 13.8% Y/Y price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.7% increase and San Diego with a 12.3% increase.
    • Prices were strongest in the West (+10.1%) and Southwest (+9.7%) regions, with the historically lagging Northeast (+9.3%) also turning in an impressive month.

    Policies & Impact:

    • Supportive policies and macro environment: Housing market is also benefiting from changing demographical preferences of a large chunk of population as people are now increasingly looking for work-from-home-friendly properties. President Joe Biden's proposed new policy can aid new homebuyers. Notably, first-time buyers are defined as those who haven't purchased a home in at least three years. Biden offered a $15K first-time homebuyer tax credit that can be utilized to make down payments, if sanctioned this incentive can make homes affordable, as reported by CNBC.
    • Sector Watch: (NYSE:AVB)(NYSE:EQR)(NYSE:ESS)(NYSE:INVH)(NYSE:MAA)(NYSE:DHI)
    • ETF Watch: (NYSEARCA:NETL)(NYSEARCA:REZ)(BATS:REM)(NYSEARCA:XHB)(NYSEARCA:HOMZ),
    • Other Reads:
    1. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI jumps more than expected in November
    2. SA Contributor New Deal Democrat recently wrote, "Housing Market Forecasts A Strong Economy At Least Through 2021, Once Pandemic Is Under Control"
    • EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager has a "keen interest" in online advertising at Google (GOOG +0.8%GOOGL +0.6%).
    • Speaking at a news conference in Brussels, she says she doesn't know if it can become a "full-fledged" competition case, but "we get quite a lot of people who are uncomfortable as to how it works and of course we would want to fully understand it," according to Bloomberg.
    • A meeting with CEO Sundar Pichai yesterday focused on new digital rules as well as a couple of competition issues, she says.
    • The European Commission is keeping a close eye on Google's compliance with an order dating to a probe of Android, which directed Google to grant choice for search and browser apps in the mobile OS.
    • Elsewhere on the ad privacy front, Google has reported it's making progress on an attempt at replacing advertising cookies with a more privacy-focused implementation.
    • Citron Research is still short GameStop (GME+55%) in the face of the stock's wild rally driven by retail traders that have taken Citron's bearish call as a challenge.
    • "If I had never been involved in GameStop and came to this right now, would I still be short this stock? 100 percent," Citron chief Andrew Left told Reuters today. "This is an old school, failing mall-based video retailer and investors can't change the perception of that."
    • Left posted a video on Jan. 21 arguing that the stock, then around $40, was not in a short squeeze and would go down to $20.
    • GME shares are up 180% since then.
    • Left then said he wouldn't comment on the stock after attacks from an "angry mob."
    • Blink Charging (BLNK +35.1%) and Workhorse Group (WKHS +33.4%) tear higher as the ongoing destruction of some favorite short seller targets continues.
    • Both BLNK and WKHS have short interest outstanding of more than 20% of total float, setting them up in general for volatile swings.
    • Both stocks have carved out new all-time highs in today's frenzied action.
    • Overall, it is a strong day for the electric vehicle sector on more enthusiasm of federal support for electrification.
    • Baird's check of the restaurant sector shows that comparable sales rose 1% in the latest weekly rundown. The pace was an expected moderation from the 5% growth over the prior two weeks when stimulus checks factored in.
    • The firm says its near-term fundamental outlook on the restaurant sector remains the same for the most part.
    • Analyst David Tarantino: "We expect the negative effects on in-restaurant traffic from 'social distancing' by consumers to begin to fade as COVID-19 vaccines become more broadly available, leading to broad-based industry traffic improvement by 2H21. That said, with some lingering risk factors (i.e., possible national minimum wage hikes, structural changes in consumer behavior) and the gradual rollout of vaccines, we still are being selective with our stock recommendations and favoring companies we believe have the best chance of delivering share gains and strong earnings power exiting the pandemic, those that also have good longer-term compounding growth characteristics, and/or those that have above-average 2022 earnings visibility and are trading at a a relative valuation discount."
    • Baird's Outperform ratings in the sector include Chipotle (CMG +0.3%), Domino's Pizza (DPZ -0.4%), Yum Brands (YUM +1.2%), Darden Restaurants (DRI -1.0%), Wingstop (WING +0.6%), McDonald's (MCD +0.5%), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -0.6%) and Restaurant Brands (QSR +0.7%). Of those names, Yum has the highest Seeking Alpha Quant Rating.
    • The S&P energy sector (XLE -1.4%) began the day among the leaders but has since drifted firmly into the red following reports that Pres. Biden is set to announce an indefinite halt on new oil and gas leasing on federal territory.
    • In addition to the moratorium, Biden is expected to set a goal of protecting 30% of federal land and water by 2030, WSJ reports.
    • The news follows last week's announced 60-day suspension of new drilling permits on U.S. lands and waters, part of Biden's plan to address climate change, his cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline permit and blocking access to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
    • Oil industry leaders see Biden's moves as confrontational, and plan to fight them through legal challenges and extensive lobbying among Congressional allies.
    • Among today's sharpest decliners: OXY -4.2%PXD -3.2%MRO -2.6%SLB -1.8%DVN -1.6%,XOM -1.5%.
    • Devon Energy, the top oil producer on onshore federal land in the Lower 48 states, has said it expects its existing federal lands permits will last at least four years.
    • S&P Global Ratings places several of the biggest oil companies, including Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.3%) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.7%), on negative watch, signaling it may cut credit ratings within weeks due to "greater industry risks" associated with climate change.
    • The ratings agency "believes the energy transition, price volatility, and weaker profitability are increasing risks for oil and gas producers," as it revises its industry-wide risk assessment for the oil and gas sector to "moderately high" from intermediate.
    • S&P also singles out Chevron (CVX -1.2%), Total (TOT +0.4%) and several top Canadian and Chinese oil companies, while cutting BP's outlook to negative.
    • The oil sector faces "significant challenges and uncertainties engendered by the energy transition," which in turn would put "pressure on profitability, specifically return on capital," S&P says.
    • Seeking Alpha contributors recently posted two divergent outlooks on the Energy Select SPDR ETF, with Alexander J. Poulos predicting the sector is "poised for a breakout," while Stanislas Capital has a "negative long-term stance on the energy sector.

    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +3.2%) is trading higher today after Q4 2020 results beat analyst expectations.
    • With the 2021 guidance above the consensus, the earnings outlook, implying a healthy growth despite the ongoing pandemic, offers ‘further support of strong underlying sector fundamentals’ the analysts at Bank of America wrote in a research note.
    • Arguing that JNJ’s earnings release ‘often serves as a bellwether for the sector,’ the analysts led by Geoff Meacham think the company’s ‘generally positive updates bode well for the rest of US Biopharma heading into earnings.’
    • Seeking Alpha contributor, Daniel Schönberger questioned in an October article if the stock was overvalued, raising concerns ‘if Johnson & Johnson is still the same visionary company it was in past.’

    • Bitcoin (BTC-USD-7%  is sliding back below $32K, continuing its decline for the week.
    • The crypto is now nearly 30% below its peak hit on Jan. 8.
    • Cryptocurrency exchange Luno and brokerage OSL argued yesterday that Bitcoin could top $50K in the long term as it vies with gold (XAUUSD:CUR) -0.1% for cash inflows.
    • The endowments of Harvard, Yale and Brown have been buying Bitcoin directly for at least a year, CoinDesk reports.
    • In his Elliott Wave analysis of Bitcoin yesterday, Ryan Wilday wrote "Bitcoin must hold over $20,300 or the B wave top is in play. Should it trigger, we'll watch for a C wave down to the $3K-$10K region." But he is predicting a rise to $150K.


  20. And the sellers are coming back.  


  21. WBA up 11% .. new CEO


  22. GME is hysterical:

    Over $200 after hours.

    Woo-hoo on WBA!


  23. I'm still holding my $39 call.  I think this stupidity is going to hit $1000 by the end of the week.  If I'm doing my math right, just the $60 and $115 calls expiring Friday will result in over 25% of the float being delivered…


  24. AMC looks like the next short sqeeze up 4 bucks for almost 100% gain today


  25. And they are on the verge of bankruptcy!