Market Week Ahead – High Ho Silver Trading

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• I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.

  Denlundy

• Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ? I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.

  1234Gel

• A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.

  ZKatkin

• Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

  Zeroxzero

• I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

  Captain Mogul

• Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

  Winston

• I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

  Kwan

• Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

  Gel1

• All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

  Seaquill

• Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!

  Louis631

• Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

  Bjkeck

• TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

  Gel1

• Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

  Neverworkagain

• The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.

  Winston

• Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

  dclark41

• You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

  Dclark41

• I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.

  Zeroxzero

• I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

  David

• Aapl/Phil Thanks for your advice, always appreciated. So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop. Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50 Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed. And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings) So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock. Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not. Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun! More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset. Thanks!

  Maya1

• Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.

  DB

• Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

  Gel1

• Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

  Humvee

• Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

  Ben1Be

• Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

  Kinkistyle

• On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

  Iflantheman

• 10/15/2014: Phil…..been travelling more than not but reading and watching you guys every night. This is to say a big thank you. Even though I don't have the time to trade every day now I set up hedges and base long term strategy on PSW. I now it may sound like BS to some readers but my 401k is down a mere 3%. It hardly gets my attention when I open my brokerage portfolio accounts. And that is by using your longer term hedges and strategies. I don't need to be a day trader to take advantage of PSW. At this time in my life when I cant trade every day……. not losing what we've gained moves front and center. It's just a great feeling to watch your brokerage account hold steady in a sea of red. Thanks Teacher.

  Livingfull

• Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

  DoubleD

• Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!

  Jomptien

• The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

  Chaps

• Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.

  StJeanLuc





1020
February 1st, 2021 at 8:42 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good Morning.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user



stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Not super positive moving forward – after adding $7T to our debt in 4 years (half in tax cuts) we suddenly have to worry about giving too much money to the bottom 99% who surely don't deserve it. The hope this year is that vaccination and slowing down the virus will boost the economy, but we are still 3-4 months away and the average person has bills pilling on. Not counting cities and state hurting for cash.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of vaccination – moving relatively fast and accelerating in fact. But dealt a weak hand from the previous admin:



phil
February 1st, 2021 at 10:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good morning!

Big Chart – Well we are in the midst of a 5% pullback it seems so we'll see what transpires here.  I'd rather see at least 10% to shake out some of the noise and 20% would actually get me bullish again.

• Dow 31,200 to 29,650 is a 5% drop of 1,550 so call it 300-point bounces to 30,000 (weak) and 30,300 (strong)



• S&P 3,860 to 3,666 is 5% down and 193 points so call is 3,705 (weak) and 3,745 (strong)



• Nasdaq 13,600 to 12,920 is 680 points so I'd say 13,050 (weak) and 13,200 (strong).  Notice that harsh rejection at 13,050 – that does not bode well for the Nas.



So it's a combination of failing the weak bounce, the lack of positive economic events and then our expectation of Nas company earnings that would lead us to bet the Nas down here.  

• Russell 2,170 is a better line and then 2,061 would be the 5% and that failed but the bounce would be 22 points for 2,083 (rejected) and 2,105 (strong).



Speaking of Fundamentals:



Still 3,000 new deaths day = 100,000/month added to the pile.  Every day is 9/11 and we just go on about our lives… amazing!  At least cases are dropping off since Biden took control, hopefully deaths will follow lower.



Vaccinations on a good track.  Amazing how fast we can move when we decide to.

The job of vaccinating large swaths of the population will fall largely on retail pharmacies, with companies such as CVS Health Corp. CVS +0.57% , Walgreens WBA -0.91% -Boots Alliance Inc., Walmart Inc. WMT -0.78% and Kroger Co. KR -2.78% saying they are prepared to give tens of millions of shots a month.

“We’re going to have to look at ways to increase our access points. We’ve got to be able to step up the pace to vaccinate people across the country if we want to make a dent in this,” said Bart Buxton, co-chair of the Covid-19 vaccine taskforce for McLaren Health Care Corp. The Flint, Mich.-based hospital system teamed with Walgreens to administer doses to its 26,000 employees as part of the first phase of vaccinations.





Hospitals and health systems, already overwhelmed by treating coronavirus patients, can’t also bear the brunt of vaccinations, Mr. Buxton said. “Health systems like McLaren can’t do this by themselves.”

Pharmacies are well-positioned to play a major role in Covid-19 vaccination efforts, industry executives say, because they are among the most-accessible health-care providers for many Americans, including people 65 and older who often pick up medication from local supermarkets or drugstores. These businesses say they also can draw from their experience in providing shots for flu, shingles and other illnesses.

CVS and Walgreens combined have 19,000 U.S. stores, while Walmart, Rite RAD -0.53% Aid Corp., Kroger and Publix Super Markets Inc., together have another 11,000 locations. Add to that dozens of regional grocers with pharmacy counters.

CVS says it can vaccinate 20 million to 25 million people a month once supplies are available. Walmart said in January that it would be able to vaccinate 10 million to 13 million a month.

President Biden said last Monday that his target of administering 100 million Covid-19 vaccines in his first 100 days in office might rise to 150 million. As of Friday, 27.9 million shots had been administered, out of 49.2 million distributed since mid-December, according to CDC data.

Drugstore chains and retailers with pharmacies say they have the manpower and physical space to handle mass vaccinations and, in some areas, have already stepped in to help local and state officials. Big chains say they have online scheduling tools capable of handling an influx of appointments.

Walgreens has said it plans to hire about 25,000 people across the U.S. to administer the vaccine. It employs 75,000 pharmacists and technicians. CVS, which employs 34,000 pharmacists and 65,000 technicians, declined to say how many workers it is hiring.

Among the biggest challenges now for retailers is dealing with customers eager to know when it’s their turn.

“We’re doing everything in our power to avoid confusion about how to get vaccinated,” a CVS spokesman said. In addition to long-term care facilities, the drugstore chain is offering shots to select groups in Indiana, Massachusetts, New York and Puerto Rico. People eligible for a vaccine must make an appointment.

 

“We answer that question dozens, hundreds of times a day,” Charlie Hartig, chief executive of Hartig Drug Stores, a small Midwestern chain, said of the question of vaccine availability. “Education is taking up time.”

Submitted on 2020/11/10 at 11:32 am

News/Batman – It's not news to us, there's a vaccine, it will be distributed at WBA and CVS – how else are you going to vaccinate 300M people?  Doctors don't have the storage equipment, it's impractical to do it that way, hospitals would crowd up but we can subsidize drug stores who are already logistically deployed to service pretty much every community in America and WBA and CVS already have strong vaccination programs in place (not to mention robust databases) so they have everything they need to implement a mass vaccination. 

And, while people are there – they may buy a candy bar too!  

If I had put out that research note for Goldman Sachs, I'd be collecting my $1M bonus right now!  

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 10:58 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Big Chart / Phil – That 10% difference between the 50 and 200 MA has to give somehow. 

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Scientists have taught spinach to send emails and it could warn us about climate change

By: euronews

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Snow Storm Threatens Up to 2 Feet in Northeast

By: Jon Kamp

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Opinion: Republicans just handed Biden a good reason to go big — without them

By: Greg Sargent

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden Goes Big | by Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project Syndicate

By: Joseph E. Stiglitz



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Ryanair expects a loss of over $1 billion this year as travel restrictions bite

By: Silvia Amaro

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The GameStop stock situation isn’t about populism. It’s about whether the market is ‘real.’

By: Mikhail Klimentov

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:19 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Robinhood CEO Dismisses Elon Musk’s ‘Conspiracy Theories’ About GameStop Trade Limits

By: Siladitya Ray

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:20 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Some arrested in Capitol siege didn’t vote in 2020

By: Blake Ellis, Melanie Hicken

snow
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Vaccinations/Phil – my provider is Kaiser Permanente (southern California branch), and they're saying, hang on, supplies are short, we're working our way down the priority list and will let you know when you're due. Kaiser Permanente has 12.4 million members, over half in California.

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

By: Sam Baker

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Elon Musk says he’s a supporter of bitcoin and thinks it will get ‘broad acceptance’ in finance

By: Ryan Browne

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:24 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump administration lobbied against states on COVID-19 vaccine funding

By: Caitlin Owens

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:26 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden to meet with GOP lawmakers to discuss virus relief

By: AAMER MADHANI



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:28 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Boeing fly without government help?

By: The Economist

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The Road to Net Zero

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Monkeys Fall For The Sunk Cost Fallacy Too, Research Suggests

By: Sara Tabin

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:34 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The NFL’s Covid-19 Finding That Saved the Season

By: Andrew Beaton

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

US corporate sentiment is increasingly upbeat – The Daily Shot

By: The Daily Shot Editor: Lev Borodovsky

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user

How the Stock Market’s Relentless Rise Saved Companies

By: Emily Flitter, Matt Phillips and Peter Eavis

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump’s trade war on China was a failure in every possible way

By: Dion Rabouin

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 12:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10 year bull market in commodities coming? Let's play natgas and commodities. NAK CLF UNG?

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Two Moves Gilead Just Made Send These Biotech Stocks Skyward

By: ALLISON GATLIN

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. construction spending hits record high in December

By: Reuters



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Amazon emerges as key player in grocery sales during Covid – Puget Sound Business Journal

By: Tony Lystra

willsons
February 1st, 2021 at 12:54 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

which one of you guys is pumping nak today?

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 12:56 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

XRT / Phil   GME is now 19% of XRT   What do you think of a put spread in XRT as a way to play a short in GME

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:25 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME is down 88 points (-27%) and the weekly 240 puts are CHEAPER (by 25%!). Now that was some volatility priced in last Friday.

willsons/NAK – I'm in. Also AMYZF, PZG, UNG, and CLF

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME – redditors, or someone, have bought 11,219 contacts of the weekly 800 calls, currently at 10.

THAT'S NUTSO.

crs101010
February 1st, 2021 at 1:49 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Reddit seems to be targeting some other names as well, AMC, BB, SNDL (not so much Silver even though this is in the headlines, they seem to be revolting against that one) 

phil
February 1st, 2021 at 2:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10-year bull/BDC – Where have I heard that before?

NAK/Willsons – That would be my kids now that they've discovered Reddit can manipulate the market.  LQMT is next.

Jackie seriously asked me this weekend what the risk of going to jail is as she understands the markets and Reddit well enough to be able to pretty much do what she wants with penny stocks.

XRT/Stock – Would have been a much better idea last week!  



I'd sell 5 March $80 puts for $9 ($4,500) against 5 long Jan $70 puts at $9 ($4,500) for net zero and play for the premium decay.  In theory, you have 354 days to sell and March is 46 days to expiration so you're selling $4,500 worth of premium in 13% of your time so 7 more chances to collect $4,500 certainly makes up for the $5,000 difference in strike.

GME/BDC – People get way too cocky on these things.

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 2:10 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

American eagles selling for like $50 on ebay. NUTSO

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. Restaurant Openings Quicken, Hinting at Rebound Taking Hold

By: Alexandre Tanzi

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Market Manipulation Is Like Pornography: You Know It When You See It

By: Peter Coy

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Exclusive: Robinhood Secures Another $1 Billion In Funds And Is In Talks For More As Downloads Hit Record 1 Million Per Day

By: Eliza Haverstock

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

White House Reviewing Whether To Revoke Trump’s Access To Intelligence Briefings

By: Jack Brewster

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Reddit Frenzy Has Already Quadrupled Silver’s Options Volume

By: Michael Roschnotti

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Open-Source Semiconductors Upend the Chip Industry?

By: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

UK had biggest G7 COVID economic hit, even with data differences – ONS

By: Andy Bruce

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 3:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

A quick scan of WSB:

- they're holding GME

- "reddit buying silver" is fake news / Citadel manipulation

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 5:13 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

SLV trades today

7000 April $28 puts sell to open ITM around $3.70

July $25/$35 call spreads ,   something like 20,000X

 

 

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 6:03 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Professional manipulation is much easier to predict! 

I don't believe in conspiracy theories generally but I got to think that some big fish are involved in that Reddit deal! If you have a chance to kill the competition and not leave any fingerprints, the temptation must be too good. And make 1000% doing it!

JPH1121
February 1st, 2021 at 6:06 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of manipulation.  Damn it looks like GME faced some shady BS today.  Almost no volume throughout the day despite a steady decline in share price with a big drop at the open and another big drop after the close.  We'll see what happens but looks awfully manipulated.

kinkistyle
February 1st, 2021 at 7:26 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Mar GME 25 puts went from around $7 to $4.  The Implied vol. was insane.  The smart move was probably to sell puts into the drop.  I guess thats why Phil always says "sell into the excitement".

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