Market Week Ahead – High Ho Silver Trading

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• Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

  Magret

• I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!

  AmalfiCoast

• Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

  Scotbraze

• Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…

  Arivera

• Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

  flipspiceland

• Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

  Singapore Steve

• Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!

  Jromeha

• Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.

  Jeffdoc2004

• TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

  Gel1

• Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!

  Biodieselchris

• Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)

  Japarikh

• Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

  Iflantheman

• USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

  Ksone88

• Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

  Gel1

• Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

  Oknoman

• Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

  Neverworkagain

• Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

  Humvee

• Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

  Josiah

• Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

  HJ Kobbeman

• I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

  Dennis

• Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!

  Newthugger

• I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

  David

• Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

  Newthugger

• Aapl/Phil Thanks for your advice, always appreciated. So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop. Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50 Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed. And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings) So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock. Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not. Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun! More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset. Thanks!

  Maya1

• Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).

  JJennings

• WISH TO EXTEND A BIG THANK YOU! I netted about $18,000 on the short Jan puts and the annualized ROI/M is mind boggling! Hope to meet you some day and buy you and your significant other a nice dinner. Best Regards Newt

  Newthugger

• Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

  Craigsa620

• Phil, thank you for all the education here. I've gained so much knowledge being a part of PSW. Thanks to the rest of the members as well! I appreciate all of the contributions you make.

  JeffDoc

• AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

  Cap

• Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions. Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.

  Bai2r





1020
February 1st, 2021 at 8:42 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good Morning.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user



stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Not super positive moving forward – after adding $7T to our debt in 4 years (half in tax cuts) we suddenly have to worry about giving too much money to the bottom 99% who surely don't deserve it. The hope this year is that vaccination and slowing down the virus will boost the economy, but we are still 3-4 months away and the average person has bills pilling on. Not counting cities and state hurting for cash.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of vaccination – moving relatively fast and accelerating in fact. But dealt a weak hand from the previous admin:



phil
February 1st, 2021 at 10:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good morning!

Big Chart – Well we are in the midst of a 5% pullback it seems so we'll see what transpires here.  I'd rather see at least 10% to shake out some of the noise and 20% would actually get me bullish again.

• Dow 31,200 to 29,650 is a 5% drop of 1,550 so call it 300-point bounces to 30,000 (weak) and 30,300 (strong)



• S&P 3,860 to 3,666 is 5% down and 193 points so call is 3,705 (weak) and 3,745 (strong)



• Nasdaq 13,600 to 12,920 is 680 points so I'd say 13,050 (weak) and 13,200 (strong).  Notice that harsh rejection at 13,050 – that does not bode well for the Nas.



So it's a combination of failing the weak bounce, the lack of positive economic events and then our expectation of Nas company earnings that would lead us to bet the Nas down here.  

• Russell 2,170 is a better line and then 2,061 would be the 5% and that failed but the bounce would be 22 points for 2,083 (rejected) and 2,105 (strong).



Speaking of Fundamentals:



Still 3,000 new deaths day = 100,000/month added to the pile.  Every day is 9/11 and we just go on about our lives… amazing!  At least cases are dropping off since Biden took control, hopefully deaths will follow lower.



Vaccinations on a good track.  Amazing how fast we can move when we decide to.

The job of vaccinating large swaths of the population will fall largely on retail pharmacies, with companies such as CVS Health Corp. CVS +0.57% , Walgreens WBA -0.91% -Boots Alliance Inc., Walmart Inc. WMT -0.78% and Kroger Co. KR -2.78% saying they are prepared to give tens of millions of shots a month.

“We’re going to have to look at ways to increase our access points. We’ve got to be able to step up the pace to vaccinate people across the country if we want to make a dent in this,” said Bart Buxton, co-chair of the Covid-19 vaccine taskforce for McLaren Health Care Corp. The Flint, Mich.-based hospital system teamed with Walgreens to administer doses to its 26,000 employees as part of the first phase of vaccinations.





Hospitals and health systems, already overwhelmed by treating coronavirus patients, can’t also bear the brunt of vaccinations, Mr. Buxton said. “Health systems like McLaren can’t do this by themselves.”

Pharmacies are well-positioned to play a major role in Covid-19 vaccination efforts, industry executives say, because they are among the most-accessible health-care providers for many Americans, including people 65 and older who often pick up medication from local supermarkets or drugstores. These businesses say they also can draw from their experience in providing shots for flu, shingles and other illnesses.

CVS and Walgreens combined have 19,000 U.S. stores, while Walmart, Rite RAD -0.53% Aid Corp., Kroger and Publix Super Markets Inc., together have another 11,000 locations. Add to that dozens of regional grocers with pharmacy counters.

CVS says it can vaccinate 20 million to 25 million people a month once supplies are available. Walmart said in January that it would be able to vaccinate 10 million to 13 million a month.

President Biden said last Monday that his target of administering 100 million Covid-19 vaccines in his first 100 days in office might rise to 150 million. As of Friday, 27.9 million shots had been administered, out of 49.2 million distributed since mid-December, according to CDC data.

Drugstore chains and retailers with pharmacies say they have the manpower and physical space to handle mass vaccinations and, in some areas, have already stepped in to help local and state officials. Big chains say they have online scheduling tools capable of handling an influx of appointments.

Walgreens has said it plans to hire about 25,000 people across the U.S. to administer the vaccine. It employs 75,000 pharmacists and technicians. CVS, which employs 34,000 pharmacists and 65,000 technicians, declined to say how many workers it is hiring.

Among the biggest challenges now for retailers is dealing with customers eager to know when it’s their turn.

“We’re doing everything in our power to avoid confusion about how to get vaccinated,” a CVS spokesman said. In addition to long-term care facilities, the drugstore chain is offering shots to select groups in Indiana, Massachusetts, New York and Puerto Rico. People eligible for a vaccine must make an appointment.

 

“We answer that question dozens, hundreds of times a day,” Charlie Hartig, chief executive of Hartig Drug Stores, a small Midwestern chain, said of the question of vaccine availability. “Education is taking up time.”

Submitted on 2020/11/10 at 11:32 am

News/Batman – It's not news to us, there's a vaccine, it will be distributed at WBA and CVS – how else are you going to vaccinate 300M people?  Doctors don't have the storage equipment, it's impractical to do it that way, hospitals would crowd up but we can subsidize drug stores who are already logistically deployed to service pretty much every community in America and WBA and CVS already have strong vaccination programs in place (not to mention robust databases) so they have everything they need to implement a mass vaccination. 

And, while people are there – they may buy a candy bar too!  

If I had put out that research note for Goldman Sachs, I'd be collecting my $1M bonus right now!  

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 10:58 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Big Chart / Phil – That 10% difference between the 50 and 200 MA has to give somehow. 

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Scientists have taught spinach to send emails and it could warn us about climate change

By: euronews

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Snow Storm Threatens Up to 2 Feet in Northeast

By: Jon Kamp

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Opinion: Republicans just handed Biden a good reason to go big — without them

By: Greg Sargent

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden Goes Big | by Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project Syndicate

By: Joseph E. Stiglitz



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Ryanair expects a loss of over $1 billion this year as travel restrictions bite

By: Silvia Amaro

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The GameStop stock situation isn’t about populism. It’s about whether the market is ‘real.’

By: Mikhail Klimentov

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:19 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Robinhood CEO Dismisses Elon Musk’s ‘Conspiracy Theories’ About GameStop Trade Limits

By: Siladitya Ray

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:20 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Some arrested in Capitol siege didn’t vote in 2020

By: Blake Ellis, Melanie Hicken

snow
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Vaccinations/Phil – my provider is Kaiser Permanente (southern California branch), and they're saying, hang on, supplies are short, we're working our way down the priority list and will let you know when you're due. Kaiser Permanente has 12.4 million members, over half in California.

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

By: Sam Baker

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Elon Musk says he’s a supporter of bitcoin and thinks it will get ‘broad acceptance’ in finance

By: Ryan Browne

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:24 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump administration lobbied against states on COVID-19 vaccine funding

By: Caitlin Owens

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:26 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden to meet with GOP lawmakers to discuss virus relief

By: AAMER MADHANI



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:28 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Boeing fly without government help?

By: The Economist

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The Road to Net Zero

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Monkeys Fall For The Sunk Cost Fallacy Too, Research Suggests

By: Sara Tabin

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:34 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The NFL’s Covid-19 Finding That Saved the Season

By: Andrew Beaton

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

US corporate sentiment is increasingly upbeat – The Daily Shot

By: The Daily Shot Editor: Lev Borodovsky

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user

How the Stock Market’s Relentless Rise Saved Companies

By: Emily Flitter, Matt Phillips and Peter Eavis

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump’s trade war on China was a failure in every possible way

By: Dion Rabouin

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 12:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10 year bull market in commodities coming? Let's play natgas and commodities. NAK CLF UNG?

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Two Moves Gilead Just Made Send These Biotech Stocks Skyward

By: ALLISON GATLIN

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. construction spending hits record high in December

By: Reuters



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Amazon emerges as key player in grocery sales during Covid – Puget Sound Business Journal

By: Tony Lystra

willsons
February 1st, 2021 at 12:54 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

which one of you guys is pumping nak today?

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 12:56 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

XRT / Phil   GME is now 19% of XRT   What do you think of a put spread in XRT as a way to play a short in GME

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:25 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME is down 88 points (-27%) and the weekly 240 puts are CHEAPER (by 25%!). Now that was some volatility priced in last Friday.

willsons/NAK – I'm in. Also AMYZF, PZG, UNG, and CLF

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME – redditors, or someone, have bought 11,219 contacts of the weekly 800 calls, currently at 10.

THAT'S NUTSO.

crs101010
February 1st, 2021 at 1:49 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Reddit seems to be targeting some other names as well, AMC, BB, SNDL (not so much Silver even though this is in the headlines, they seem to be revolting against that one) 

phil
February 1st, 2021 at 2:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10-year bull/BDC – Where have I heard that before?

NAK/Willsons – That would be my kids now that they've discovered Reddit can manipulate the market.  LQMT is next.

Jackie seriously asked me this weekend what the risk of going to jail is as she understands the markets and Reddit well enough to be able to pretty much do what she wants with penny stocks.

XRT/Stock – Would have been a much better idea last week!  



I'd sell 5 March $80 puts for $9 ($4,500) against 5 long Jan $70 puts at $9 ($4,500) for net zero and play for the premium decay.  In theory, you have 354 days to sell and March is 46 days to expiration so you're selling $4,500 worth of premium in 13% of your time so 7 more chances to collect $4,500 certainly makes up for the $5,000 difference in strike.

GME/BDC – People get way too cocky on these things.

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 2:10 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

American eagles selling for like $50 on ebay. NUTSO

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. Restaurant Openings Quicken, Hinting at Rebound Taking Hold

By: Alexandre Tanzi

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Market Manipulation Is Like Pornography: You Know It When You See It

By: Peter Coy

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Exclusive: Robinhood Secures Another $1 Billion In Funds And Is In Talks For More As Downloads Hit Record 1 Million Per Day

By: Eliza Haverstock

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

White House Reviewing Whether To Revoke Trump’s Access To Intelligence Briefings

By: Jack Brewster

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Reddit Frenzy Has Already Quadrupled Silver’s Options Volume

By: Michael Roschnotti

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Open-Source Semiconductors Upend the Chip Industry?

By: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

UK had biggest G7 COVID economic hit, even with data differences – ONS

By: Andy Bruce

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 3:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

A quick scan of WSB:

- they're holding GME

- "reddit buying silver" is fake news / Citadel manipulation

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 5:13 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

SLV trades today

7000 April $28 puts sell to open ITM around $3.70

July $25/$35 call spreads ,   something like 20,000X

 

 

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 6:03 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Professional manipulation is much easier to predict! 

I don't believe in conspiracy theories generally but I got to think that some big fish are involved in that Reddit deal! If you have a chance to kill the competition and not leave any fingerprints, the temptation must be too good. And make 1000% doing it!

JPH1121
February 1st, 2021 at 6:06 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of manipulation.  Damn it looks like GME faced some shady BS today.  Almost no volume throughout the day despite a steady decline in share price with a big drop at the open and another big drop after the close.  We'll see what happens but looks awfully manipulated.

kinkistyle
February 1st, 2021 at 7:26 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Mar GME 25 puts went from around $7 to $4.  The Implied vol. was insane.  The smart move was probably to sell puts into the drop.  I guess thats why Phil always says "sell into the excitement".

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