Market Week Ahead – High Ho Silver Trading

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• GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

  Winston

• I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

  Brenteaz

• Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks

  JFawcett

• I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

  Zucko

• This site, for me, is where I have learned how to use options & futures. It is also where I get a constant flow of new ideas. In addition, it's great to know that I have many sources, mostly Phil, if I get lost in a trade. I have been here for 8 years, and am grateful to PHIL and fellow members. I manage about half a million, and although I may not always achieve what Phil does, I am not complaining. I have learned so much. Thank you Phil!

  DClark41

• Phil, thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you. I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week. thank you!

  DawnR

• Greetings Phil, I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication. Kind regards, Daniel

  Daniel

• Phil, 3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday. Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.

  Gingbaum

• Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.

  Escohen5

• Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

  Julian

• I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?

  Bill Hoffman

• Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

  Neverworkagain

• I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.

  Verreaul

• Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

  Josiah

• Thank you Phil for this site – the trade discussions on PSW are mind boggling. Future trading while learning to be a value investor. Priceless

  Joseph

• Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

  GClay

• Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help

  BCFla

• Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil

  Bobhu

• Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

  thechaser

• Thank you so much for the good daily news in review Phil. I love your commentary! It is such a breath of fresh air in the smog cluttered news networks.

  RJRoberts

• WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?

  Matt1966

• Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast! I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.

  Gel1

• Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!

  Yodi

• 1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

  Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

• Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

  Greg

• I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day. This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed. More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit. Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme!

  Malsg

• Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.

  Coke

• By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

  Microflux

• Phil, I followed your investing ideas in LTP quite closely. It seems your insightful fundamental analysis knowledge serves you v. well. I get entertained and they are profitable.

  Investwizard

• Great calls this week!

  SNS1





1020
February 1st, 2021 at 8:42 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good Morning.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user



stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Not super positive moving forward – after adding $7T to our debt in 4 years (half in tax cuts) we suddenly have to worry about giving too much money to the bottom 99% who surely don't deserve it. The hope this year is that vaccination and slowing down the virus will boost the economy, but we are still 3-4 months away and the average person has bills pilling on. Not counting cities and state hurting for cash.

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 9:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of vaccination – moving relatively fast and accelerating in fact. But dealt a weak hand from the previous admin:



phil
February 1st, 2021 at 10:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good morning!

Big Chart – Well we are in the midst of a 5% pullback it seems so we'll see what transpires here.  I'd rather see at least 10% to shake out some of the noise and 20% would actually get me bullish again.

• Dow 31,200 to 29,650 is a 5% drop of 1,550 so call it 300-point bounces to 30,000 (weak) and 30,300 (strong)



• S&P 3,860 to 3,666 is 5% down and 193 points so call is 3,705 (weak) and 3,745 (strong)



• Nasdaq 13,600 to 12,920 is 680 points so I'd say 13,050 (weak) and 13,200 (strong).  Notice that harsh rejection at 13,050 – that does not bode well for the Nas.



So it's a combination of failing the weak bounce, the lack of positive economic events and then our expectation of Nas company earnings that would lead us to bet the Nas down here.  

• Russell 2,170 is a better line and then 2,061 would be the 5% and that failed but the bounce would be 22 points for 2,083 (rejected) and 2,105 (strong).



Speaking of Fundamentals:



Still 3,000 new deaths day = 100,000/month added to the pile.  Every day is 9/11 and we just go on about our lives… amazing!  At least cases are dropping off since Biden took control, hopefully deaths will follow lower.



Vaccinations on a good track.  Amazing how fast we can move when we decide to.

The job of vaccinating large swaths of the population will fall largely on retail pharmacies, with companies such as CVS Health Corp. CVS +0.57% , Walgreens WBA -0.91% -Boots Alliance Inc., Walmart Inc. WMT -0.78% and Kroger Co. KR -2.78% saying they are prepared to give tens of millions of shots a month.

“We’re going to have to look at ways to increase our access points. We’ve got to be able to step up the pace to vaccinate people across the country if we want to make a dent in this,” said Bart Buxton, co-chair of the Covid-19 vaccine taskforce for McLaren Health Care Corp. The Flint, Mich.-based hospital system teamed with Walgreens to administer doses to its 26,000 employees as part of the first phase of vaccinations.





Hospitals and health systems, already overwhelmed by treating coronavirus patients, can’t also bear the brunt of vaccinations, Mr. Buxton said. “Health systems like McLaren can’t do this by themselves.”

Pharmacies are well-positioned to play a major role in Covid-19 vaccination efforts, industry executives say, because they are among the most-accessible health-care providers for many Americans, including people 65 and older who often pick up medication from local supermarkets or drugstores. These businesses say they also can draw from their experience in providing shots for flu, shingles and other illnesses.

CVS and Walgreens combined have 19,000 U.S. stores, while Walmart, Rite RAD -0.53% Aid Corp., Kroger and Publix Super Markets Inc., together have another 11,000 locations. Add to that dozens of regional grocers with pharmacy counters.

CVS says it can vaccinate 20 million to 25 million people a month once supplies are available. Walmart said in January that it would be able to vaccinate 10 million to 13 million a month.

President Biden said last Monday that his target of administering 100 million Covid-19 vaccines in his first 100 days in office might rise to 150 million. As of Friday, 27.9 million shots had been administered, out of 49.2 million distributed since mid-December, according to CDC data.

Drugstore chains and retailers with pharmacies say they have the manpower and physical space to handle mass vaccinations and, in some areas, have already stepped in to help local and state officials. Big chains say they have online scheduling tools capable of handling an influx of appointments.

Walgreens has said it plans to hire about 25,000 people across the U.S. to administer the vaccine. It employs 75,000 pharmacists and technicians. CVS, which employs 34,000 pharmacists and 65,000 technicians, declined to say how many workers it is hiring.

Among the biggest challenges now for retailers is dealing with customers eager to know when it’s their turn.

“We’re doing everything in our power to avoid confusion about how to get vaccinated,” a CVS spokesman said. In addition to long-term care facilities, the drugstore chain is offering shots to select groups in Indiana, Massachusetts, New York and Puerto Rico. People eligible for a vaccine must make an appointment.

 

“We answer that question dozens, hundreds of times a day,” Charlie Hartig, chief executive of Hartig Drug Stores, a small Midwestern chain, said of the question of vaccine availability. “Education is taking up time.”

Submitted on 2020/11/10 at 11:32 am

News/Batman – It's not news to us, there's a vaccine, it will be distributed at WBA and CVS – how else are you going to vaccinate 300M people?  Doctors don't have the storage equipment, it's impractical to do it that way, hospitals would crowd up but we can subsidize drug stores who are already logistically deployed to service pretty much every community in America and WBA and CVS already have strong vaccination programs in place (not to mention robust databases) so they have everything they need to implement a mass vaccination. 

And, while people are there – they may buy a candy bar too!  

If I had put out that research note for Goldman Sachs, I'd be collecting my $1M bonus right now!  

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 10:58 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Big Chart / Phil – That 10% difference between the 50 and 200 MA has to give somehow. 

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Scientists have taught spinach to send emails and it could warn us about climate change

By: euronews

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Snow Storm Threatens Up to 2 Feet in Northeast

By: Jon Kamp

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Opinion: Republicans just handed Biden a good reason to go big — without them

By: Greg Sargent

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden Goes Big | by Joseph E. Stiglitz – Project Syndicate

By: Joseph E. Stiglitz



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Ryanair expects a loss of over $1 billion this year as travel restrictions bite

By: Silvia Amaro

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The GameStop stock situation isn’t about populism. It’s about whether the market is ‘real.’

By: Mikhail Klimentov

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:19 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Robinhood CEO Dismisses Elon Musk’s ‘Conspiracy Theories’ About GameStop Trade Limits

By: Siladitya Ray

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:20 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Some arrested in Capitol siege didn’t vote in 2020

By: Blake Ellis, Melanie Hicken

snow
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Vaccinations/Phil – my provider is Kaiser Permanente (southern California branch), and they're saying, hang on, supplies are short, we're working our way down the priority list and will let you know when you're due. Kaiser Permanente has 12.4 million members, over half in California.

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:21 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

By: Sam Baker

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Elon Musk says he’s a supporter of bitcoin and thinks it will get ‘broad acceptance’ in finance

By: Ryan Browne

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:24 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump administration lobbied against states on COVID-19 vaccine funding

By: Caitlin Owens

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:26 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Biden to meet with GOP lawmakers to discuss virus relief

By: AAMER MADHANI



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:28 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Boeing fly without government help?

By: The Economist

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The Road to Net Zero

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Monkeys Fall For The Sunk Cost Fallacy Too, Research Suggests

By: Sara Tabin

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:34 am | Permalink Ignore this user

The NFL’s Covid-19 Finding That Saved the Season

By: Andrew Beaton

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

US corporate sentiment is increasingly upbeat – The Daily Shot

By: The Daily Shot Editor: Lev Borodovsky

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user

How the Stock Market’s Relentless Rise Saved Companies

By: Emily Flitter, Matt Phillips and Peter Eavis

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 11:38 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Trump’s trade war on China was a failure in every possible way

By: Dion Rabouin

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 12:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10 year bull market in commodities coming? Let's play natgas and commodities. NAK CLF UNG?

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Two Moves Gilead Just Made Send These Biotech Stocks Skyward

By: ALLISON GATLIN

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. construction spending hits record high in December

By: Reuters



News:
February 1st, 2021 at 12:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Amazon emerges as key player in grocery sales during Covid – Puget Sound Business Journal

By: Tony Lystra

willsons
February 1st, 2021 at 12:54 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

which one of you guys is pumping nak today?

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 12:56 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

XRT / Phil   GME is now 19% of XRT   What do you think of a put spread in XRT as a way to play a short in GME

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:25 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME is down 88 points (-27%) and the weekly 240 puts are CHEAPER (by 25%!). Now that was some volatility priced in last Friday.

willsons/NAK – I'm in. Also AMYZF, PZG, UNG, and CLF

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 1:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

GME – redditors, or someone, have bought 11,219 contacts of the weekly 800 calls, currently at 10.

THAT'S NUTSO.

crs101010
February 1st, 2021 at 1:49 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Reddit seems to be targeting some other names as well, AMC, BB, SNDL (not so much Silver even though this is in the headlines, they seem to be revolting against that one) 

phil
February 1st, 2021 at 2:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

10-year bull/BDC – Where have I heard that before?

NAK/Willsons – That would be my kids now that they've discovered Reddit can manipulate the market.  LQMT is next.

Jackie seriously asked me this weekend what the risk of going to jail is as she understands the markets and Reddit well enough to be able to pretty much do what she wants with penny stocks.

XRT/Stock – Would have been a much better idea last week!  



I'd sell 5 March $80 puts for $9 ($4,500) against 5 long Jan $70 puts at $9 ($4,500) for net zero and play for the premium decay.  In theory, you have 354 days to sell and March is 46 days to expiration so you're selling $4,500 worth of premium in 13% of your time so 7 more chances to collect $4,500 certainly makes up for the $5,000 difference in strike.

GME/BDC – People get way too cocky on these things.

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 2:10 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

American eagles selling for like $50 on ebay. NUTSO

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

U.S. Restaurant Openings Quicken, Hinting at Rebound Taking Hold

By: Alexandre Tanzi

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Market Manipulation Is Like Pornography: You Know It When You See It

By: Peter Coy

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Exclusive: Robinhood Secures Another $1 Billion In Funds And Is In Talks For More As Downloads Hit Record 1 Million Per Day

By: Eliza Haverstock

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

White House Reviewing Whether To Revoke Trump’s Access To Intelligence Briefings

By: Jack Brewster

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Reddit Frenzy Has Already Quadrupled Silver’s Options Volume

By: Michael Roschnotti

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Can Open-Source Semiconductors Upend the Chip Industry?

By: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal

News:
February 1st, 2021 at 3:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

UK had biggest G7 COVID economic hit, even with data differences – ONS

By: Andy Bruce

biodieselchris
February 1st, 2021 at 3:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

A quick scan of WSB:

- they're holding GME

- "reddit buying silver" is fake news / Citadel manipulation

stockbern
February 1st, 2021 at 5:13 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

SLV trades today

7000 April $28 puts sell to open ITM around $3.70

July $25/$35 call spreads ,   something like 20,000X

 

 

stjeanluc
February 1st, 2021 at 6:03 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Professional manipulation is much easier to predict! 

I don't believe in conspiracy theories generally but I got to think that some big fish are involved in that Reddit deal! If you have a chance to kill the competition and not leave any fingerprints, the temptation must be too good. And make 1000% doing it!

JPH1121
February 1st, 2021 at 6:06 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Speaking of manipulation.  Damn it looks like GME faced some shady BS today.  Almost no volume throughout the day despite a steady decline in share price with a big drop at the open and another big drop after the close.  We'll see what happens but looks awfully manipulated.

kinkistyle
February 1st, 2021 at 7:26 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Mar GME 25 puts went from around $7 to $4.  The Implied vol. was insane.  The smart move was probably to sell puts into the drop.  I guess thats why Phil always says "sell into the excitement".

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