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PhilStockWorld February Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,766,591!  

Our paired Long & Short-Term Portfolios have gained $157,564 since our January Review and that is, of course, ridiculous and reflective of this ridiculous bubble rally.  The LTP went up and the loss of the STP went down – even as we increased our hedging.  That's because we sell a lot of premium and the premium decays regardless of the market direction.  Time is our friend using this strategy.  

Also, we have SUBSTANTIAL amounts of CASH!!! across all of our portfolios as we think this entire market is BS and will collapse at some point.  At least 2 or 3 days each week I wake up wanting to just cash out and go on vacation – only I can't go on vacation and I'd be bored so we stay invested – but that's a really stupid reason to risk your assets if this is money that is critical to your future.  

The S&P 500 is up almost 100% from it's March lows and yes, that was a 35% drop from the February highs but now we're 20% above those (3,393) and it's simply too far, too fast so we're being very careful with our positions and very aggressive with our hedges.  In our last STP Review, we determined we had a good $300,000 worth of protection and we only have $551,828 worth of position in our LTP – that is well-covered!  

We added new longs however in the LTP on BABA, GOLD, OIH, TOT, VLO, WPM and WU in the past 30 days as we've been enjoying earnings season and the bargains it brings.  We still have $1,057,650 of CASH!!! sitting on the sidelines and we've sold very few naked puts so we also have tons of margin to play with.  On the whole, we'd love a good crash – so we can go bargain-hunting.  I will repeat what I said back on December 16th as the strategy still holds and, after making 10% for the month, perhaps more people will pay attention:

We have 33% less positions, so it's easier to adjust if we do have a correction and we have 33% less longs for our Short-Term Portfolio to protect – lowering our insurance costs as well.  Those are the "consequences" we've suffered from "missing out" on a fantastic rally.  Certainly it's been a lot more relaxing and I aim to keep it that way into the New Year – just in case.  

So next time you feel compelled to trade due to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – keep in mind – missing out on what?  We already made FANTASTIC returns for the year – why risk it just to make a tiny bit more?

Every time I've done one of these reviews, since last May, I've been looking to close any LTP position that shows signs of potential weakness and to close any position I wouldn't be THRILLED to double down on if the market drops 40%.  Keep that in mind when we're doing this review – these are the survivors – the best of the best under the current market conditions.

Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP): 

By the way, we did an intensive review last month indicating exactly how much each position was scheduled to make ($328,075 in the LTP, $297,000 in the STP) if all goes well and, so far, it has!  But you have to recognize when you are making TOO MUCH – we can't keep up this pace as there's a $600,000 limit to our potential gains (not including the new trades) so you have to see which trades are getting ahead of themselves and look at them very critically.  

  • HMY – We'd love to own them for net $2, so no worries.
  • M – Up 80% with a year to go but miles away from risky so we may as well wait and collect the other $3,760.  
  • OIH – Still good for a new trade.  Net $110 entry is our worst case on the Oil Services ETF and they paid us $10,000 to promise to buy 500 shares.  

  • TOT – Nice profit already but still good for a new trade.  More oil as part of our inflation hedges.
  • BABA – This one was obvious after AMZN had blow-out earnings.  Already up nicely but it's a $75,000 spread and still only net $17,137 so over 300% left to gain if they get to $300 in two years (up 10%).  Making $57,863 against $17,137 in cash on a 10% move in the stock is a lot more fun (to me) than chasing after idiotic Momentum Trades.  This was a simple, Fundamental Investment based on the outperformance of the competition and the overall Economic Conditions as well as the continuing Macro Trend towards E-Commerce.  Very simple, actually.  Here's what I wrote in Feb 3rd's PSW Report, pre-market:

Just this morning, for example, the following alert popped up at 6:14:

Ant Said to Reach Agreement with Regulators on Overhaul – Bloomberg

(Street Insider 02/03 06:14:06)

Perhaps that headline by itself isn't helpful but we know that Jack Ma has been out of favor with the Chinese Government and that AliBaba's (BABA) stock price has suffered because of it.  We also know Amazon (AMZN) just knocked it out of the park on earnings so BABA should also do well and that means we BUYBUYBUYU on that news.

BABA is already up $10 pre-market at $264 but that's down from $319 in October and the best way to play it is to say we WOULD like to own it for $200, so we can sell 5 2023 $200 puts for $33 (perhaps $30 if we open higher, so call it a $15,000 credit) and then we can buy 15 of the 2023 $250 ($70)/300 ($50) bull call spreads for net $20 ($30,000) in our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and that's net $15,000 on the $75,000 spread so there's $60,000 (400%) of upside potential at $300 and, as our Members know, we can look forward to selling short calls like (but NOT YET) 5 March $290s for $5 to collect $2,500 using 44 of the 716 days we have to play.

If we pay net $15,000 for the spread, we only have to sell $2,500 worth of premium every 100 days to more than pay for the whole thing and then we have a free 2023 $250/300 bull call spread on BABA.  Our downside risk is being assigned 500 shares of BABA at net $200 ($100,000) but, fortunately, we already have an FXP spread in our Short-Term Portfolio so we already have a downside hedge on the Chinese market.  That coupled with the fact that we recover our investment making just 1/3 sales against our long position makes me REALLY like this trade idea!  You know who else is liking my trade idea?  Analysts – who are running in like sheep to upgrade BABA this morning – also very easy to find on NewsWatch (part of NewsWare):

INFORMATION – That is how we trade.  We don't need to follow the sheep who run into momentum stocks on Reddit boards.  We can make good money (400% is good money, right?) by simply using the proper tools (which we PRACTICE using until we are experts) and putting in the real work it takes to consistently make money in the market.  

  • BRK/B – Well over target so we've turned it into a Butterfly-Type income play.
  • CHL – This position is broken and our real bet it Biden will reverse Trump's ban on Chinese stocks.  In Hong Kong, our stock is up 10% since it delisted in the US at $27.50.
  • CSCO – How obvious was this one?  On track.
  • FL – Miles in the money.
  • GILD – We liked it so much we played it twice and it's at goal already.  

  • GOLD – We're back in last year's Trade of the Year and it's cheaper than our entry so great for a new trade!  
  • GS – Miles in the money but no point in selling at net $23,400 on the $40,000 spread.  In fact, that's a very good two-year return on investment for most people, isn't it?  All they have to do is not drop $100… 

  • IBM – Was our Stock of the Year 4 years ago and yes, I'm a boring guy who keeps liking the same excellent companies when they are cheap – sorry.  They have 2 years to make $5 more and we collect $50,000 and it's currently net $17,000, so that's a keeper…
  • IMAX – This is the thing about Fundamental Investing, we don't know WHEN it's going to take off so we simply plant our flag at a good bottom and keep accumulating until the rest of the traders finally realize what a value the stock is.  With IMAX, we have a $25,000 spread and an $18,800 credit and it's currently net $6,750 so plenty left to gain and the $18,800 is in our pocket.  Life is good!

  • INTC – Our 2021 Stock of the Year!  This is a $75,000 spread at net $42,855 so again, a spread with returns most traders would love to have – even if they didn't get our net $15,750 entry.
  • MMM – They make masks!  How Fundamental is that? Big yawn now as we wait for our $45,000 at net $33,037.  50% returns seem realy dull, don't they?  And this one is for just 10 months…
  • PAA – Good, solid pipeline play and we're in it for the dividends.
  • PFE – Another obvious virus play.  I can't believe it's still only $35.  It's a $35,000 spread at net $7,712.  We should probably just put the entire portfolio into this trade and take the next two years off as $27,288 in profit would be 353%.  Will be is more like it…

SKT – This I'm very proud of from our Live Member Chat Room on January 27th:  

Meanhwhile SKT BABY!!!

I'm going to make an exception this time:  I TOLD YOU SO!

Earnings aren't even until 2/17.  They just put in a new CEO but $20 is time to cover.  We 1/2 covered at $10 so we'll sell 40 more SKT 2023 $17 calls in the LTP for $7 ($28,000) because it would be insane to turn that down (see how we make $28,000/week?).   In the Dividend Portfolio we were too conservative with a full cover – not much to do about that.

  • The Fundamental door swings both ways – you have to know when a stock you like is too expensive, as well as when it's too cheap.  We had a silly run-up and some idiot was offering to buy our stock for net $24 – so we locked in the price by selling the calls.  Now we are covered and we just sit back and enjoy the dividend, if they ever reinstate it.  
  • SPWR – Runaway stock!  We have no reason to sell it because there's money left to collect and negligible risk.
  • T – Another stock that's still way too low.  We're aggressively long here and looking for $80,000+ on the net $37,900 spreadd and we'll also sell calls along the way (like SKT, when it has a nice run) to further reduce our basis.  For instance, we could sell 25 of the April $30 calls for 0.75 to pocket $1,875 and it doesn't seem like much but it's only using 57 of our 701 trading days so 14 sales like that would net us an extra $26,250 but, at the moment, $30 is too low so we'd rather wait.
  • VLO – Brand new and already up $2,700 on the net $5,000 spread so that's a quick 54% in 10 days.  Aren't options fun?

  • WBA – Yet another stock I love.  Who says there aren't great bargains in this market?  We hit our $50 goal and fully covered so it's officially a $75,000 spread at net $40,950 but we've already made $40,450 since we bought it when nobody liked it (and doubled down when it went lower). 
  • WPM – Yet another former Stock of the Year (5 years back!).  Brand new so still playable.  You know the only Stock of the Year of the past 5 years we don't have in our portfolio:

We missed the re-entry on LB, unfortunately, and it never pulled back again.

  • WU – Another new trade that's only up a little.  $20,000 potential at net $4,300!  Aren't options fun?  All we're doing here is promising to buy 1,000 shares at $22 and it's $23.87 now.  If we lose all of the $4,300, then our net is $28.17 – that is the absolute worst case.  Meanwhile, all WU has to do is hit $30 and we make $15,700 (365%) in two years.  

Buy Bitcoin with Western Union 

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  We made some nice improvements since our 1/14 Review, when we made quite a few changes and we're up 5% already this morning as it doesn't take much to improve all these ultra-short positions.  There's really not much to do now – other than watch and wait to see if the indexes can hold up into next week, as earnings season winds down.

  • TQQQ – $60,000 spread at net $26,050 and it's out intention to sell short-term short puts to knock that lower (if we ever get a proper dip).  
  • CMG – Big wild card and we don't like to see those short calls in the money.  Costs are up and the company raised prices but I don't see it helping and they did not provide Q1 guidance – probably a bad sign (for them, great for us).  We sold the March $1,400 calls for $120 and they are currently $49 in the money.  If they expire worthless we make $43,900 and we get to do it again.  If we hit the spread, that pays $180,000+ if CMG is below $1,100 in a year.  

  • FXP – China has been very resiliant so far and March is coming up fast so let's roll our 40 March $25 calls at $1.20 ($4,800) to Sept $30 calls at $2 ($8,000).  It's like playing leap-frog with your contracts.
  • SCO – Big failure so far.  Just have to wait and see.  
  • SQQQ – Still our primary hedge that can pay $200,000 at $30 and it's about net $0 so nice potential gain.  We'll roll the March puts along and see what happens.
  • TSLA – Now this one is fun as we make another $3,940 if TSLA stays below $900 for another month but we already made $15,660 so a stop on the short March $900 calls at $20 – just in case.  It's an $80,000 put spread if they fall to $600 but we're in the spread for net $67,245 so the upside is in the constant short-term sales more so than the spread itself – don't forget that.  

  • TZA – Our other main hedge is good for about $70,000 at most (at $7.50) but at least it's only net $13,000 so kind of nice for a new play.   If TZA doesn't come down soon, we can expect a reverse-split.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IN PROGRESS

 

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Setting up for a poor man's trade WMT buy Jan23 110 call @ 31.20 (now 31.70) and sell Jan 23 put 115 looking for 5.30


  3. Sorry WMT Jan 23 110 is 35.65 and Jan23 115 put 11.00


  4. AMGN still good for Buy the Jan 23 BCS 210/245 @ 15.80 and sell 1/2 Jan 23 210 put for 28.85. net cost 2.75. You could cover already with the sale of a Apr 21 255 call for 2.85, but I would hold back with the Apr sale not on a day like this!!!! Good day for buying calls and selling puts though.


  5. Good morning!  

    Oil is still all over the place.  7.3M barrel headline draw and down about 10Mb overall so not a bad report but still not enough to support this run-up as it's due to the weather impacting production – not demand increasing.

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -7.3M barrels vs. -2.4M consensus, -6.6M last week.
    • EIA Gasoline +0.7vs. barrels vs. +1.4M consensus, +4.3M last week.
    • EIA Distillates -3.4M vs. -1.6M consensus, -1.7M last week.
    • Futures (CL1:COM -0.3%)

    WMT/Yodi – I'd give it the weekend.  Raising wages is a Fundamental change to outlook.  5% Rule not in WMT's favor after a 50% run,  Should be a $10 pullback at least, maybe $20.

    AMGN still reasonably priced but I still prefer PFE.

    • Thank you Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, members of the Committee.
    • Before I go further, I want to be clear about what I am not. I am not a hedge fund. I do not have clients, and I do not provide personalized investment advice for fees or commissions. I am an individual investor. My investment in GameStop and my posts on social media were entirely my own.
    • I did not solicit anyone to buy or sell the stock for my own profit. I did not belong to any groups trying to create movements in the stock price. I never had a financial relationship with any hedge fund. I had no information about GameStop except what was public. I did not know any people inside the company, and I never spoke to any insider.
    • As an individual investor, I use publicly available information to study the market and the value of specific companies. I consider a complex array of factors and track hundreds of stocks – all in search of market inefficiencies. Like many people, sometimes I post on social media my thoughts and analysis about individual stocks and whether they are correctly valued.
    • I did that with GameStop. I believed the company was dramatically undervalued by the market. The prevailing analysis about GameStop’s impending doom was simply wrong.
    • A little about my background: I grew up in Brockton, Massachusetts. My father was a truck driver, and my mom a registered nurse. I was one of three kids, and the first in my family to earn a four-year college degree when I graduated from Stonehill College in 2009, amid the Great Recession and without a long-term job. My first post-college job was in operations at W.B. Mason, an office supplies company headquartered in my home town of Brockton.
    • Between 2010 and 2014, I worked for a family friend at a start-up company in New Hampshire, trying to build a software program that would help investors analyze stocks and offer related research. We also tried to start an investment firm, which dissolved not long after it was created. My salary never exceeded $40,000, but I did learn something about investing. I learned how to do the tedious work of digging through a company’s financials and focusing on its real long-term value, not prevailing market sentiment or headlines.
    • I married my wife Caroline in 2016, and I found a job working operations and compliance at LexShares. I left that job in March 2017, and for the next two years I was effectively without a job. During that time, I began actively analyzing a wide array of stocks to try to keep and increase our limited savings. It was both a way to make money and an interest that I pursued passionately while I lacked a job.
    • In April 2019, I accepted a marketing and financial education job at MassMutual. Caroline and I were both happy about our prospects. I had never made a salary over $100,000 a year before, and I was thrilled just to be working and to have benefits again. My title was Director, Financial Wellness Education. My job was to help develop financial education classes that advisors could present to prospective clients. I never sold securities, and I was not a financial advisor.
    • I continued analyzing stocks on my own time and investing my family’s funds. In early June of 2019, the price of GameStop’s stock declined on worse than expected earnings, and it began trading at a deep discount, below what I thought was its fair value. I was aware from public reports that a well-known investor, Michael Burry, was interested in GameStop. Because I thought the stock was undervalued, I purchased call options on June 7, 2019. I increased my position throughout much of 2019 and 2020, because as I continued to analyze the company and its 3 prospects, I became increasingly confident that the share price was indeed dramatically undervalued.
    • Two important factors, based entirely on publicly available information, gave me and many others confidence that GameStop was undervalued in 2019 and 2020. First, the market was underestimating the prospects of GameStop’s legacy business and overestimating the likelihood of its going bankrupt. GameStop, the only major retailer dedicated to gaming, has over 60 million members in its loyalty program and continues to maintain a sizable market share within the gaming industry. Its legacy business, comprised primarily of selling physical video games and related equipment within their stores, was likely to generate meaningful cash flow following the release of new gaming consoles in late 2020. I grew up playing videogames and shopping at GameStop, and I’m looking forward to buying a new console at GameStop. I knew the company had an opportunity to reinvigorate this business by improving customer service for gamers, upgrading its online presence, and offering complementary product lines such as PC gaming and accessories.
    • Second, I believed – and I continue to believe – that GameStop has the potential to reinvent itself as the ultimate destination for gamers within the thriving $200 billion gaming industry. The new console cycle provides GameStop a unique opportunity to pivot from a traditionally brickand-mortar mindset toward a technology-driven business that excels in gaming products, experiences and services. By embracing the digital economy, GameStop can pursue new revenues streams including larger gaming catalogs, digital content and community experiences, online trade-ins, streaming services, and Esports. While I may be the only panelist here today who had faith in GameStop, I was hardly the only person who advocated these points or ones like them. Investors including Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen, whose purchase of GameStop shares and 4 advocacy with the GameStop board helped positively affect the share price in late 2020, publicly expressed similar views.
    • I want to pause to note that the investment I made was risky, but I was confident in my analysis, and I was willing to accept the loss if I was proven wrong. My timing was far from perfect, and many of the options contracts I purchased expired worthless because GameStop’s stock price remained depressed longer than I expected.
    • I’ve been asked why I decided to share my investment ideas on social media. My investment skills had reached a level where I felt sharing them publicly could help others. I also thought that by sharing my own ideas and accepting critiques, I would be able to identify holes in my analysis. Hedge funds and other Wall Street firms have teams of analysts working together to compile research and critique investment ideas, while individual investors have not had that advantage. Social media platforms like YouTube, Twitter, and WallStreetBets on Reddit are leveling the playing field. And in a year of quarantines and COVID, engaging with other investors on social media was a safe way to socialize. We had fun.
    • The idea that I used social media to promote GameStop stock to unwitting investors is preposterous. I was abundantly clear that my channel was for educational purposes only, and that my aggressive style of investing was unlikely to be suitable for most folks checking out the channel. Whether other individual investors bought the stock was irrelevant to my thesis – my focus was on the fundamentals of the business. It’s worth noting that after five months of streaming, my final stream of 2020 topped out at just ninety-six concurrent viewers, with an average view duration of twenty-five minutes. On Christmas morning I had only 529 subscribers on YouTube, and 550 followers on Twitter. These numbers are tiny. There were rarely more than a few dozen folks on the stream on any night. The reality was people didn’t really care about 5 boring, repetitive analysis of GameStop and other stocks, and that was fine. For those of us who did care, the stream provided us an outlet for refining our fundamentals-based thesis. We were able to analyze events in real-time and keep each other honest.
    • Ultimately my GameStop investment was a success. But the thing is, I felt that way in December far before the peak, when the stock was at $20 a share. I was so happy to visit my family in Brockton for the holidays and give them the great news – we were millionaires. That money will go such a long way for my family. We had an incredibly difficult 2020. In addition to dealing with COVID, we lost my sister Sara unexpectedly in June. It brought me tremendous joy to share good news with my family for a change. I am grateful to be able to give back to my community and to support my family, most of all my wife Caroline who has stuck with me through very tough times.
    • As for what happened in January, others will have to explain it. Threshold lists, order flow, halting purchases – according to the media these all had a material impact on GameStop stock in January. Here’s the thing: I’ve had a bit of experience and even I barely understand these matters. It’s alarming how little we know about the inner-workings of the market, and I am thankful that this Committee is examining what happened. I believe an analysis of GameStop’s recent price action must start with a discussion of the exorbitant short interest in the stock, as well as an investigation into any potentially manipulative shorting practices and brokers’ reported failures to timely deliver shares and settle trades.
    • As for what I expect moving forward: GameStop’s stock price may have gotten a bit ahead of itself last month, but I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been on a potential turnaround. In short, I like the stock. And what’s stunning is that, as far as I can tell, the market remains oblivious to GameStop’s unique opportunity within the gaming industry.
    • Check out our previous coverage of Roaring Kitty's upcoming appearance before Congress.
    • Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ:UCTT) shares are down 6.8% despite reporting upside Q4 results yesterday that came in above the company's pre-announced financials.
    • Revenue was up 29% on the year to $369.6M. EPS topped estimates by 10 cents with $0.81.
    • Gross margin was 21.5% and operating margin was 11.9% compared to the 21% and 11.6% in the prior quarter, respectively.
    • For Q1, the company widens its guidance due to the continuing macro uncertainties. UCTT expects revenue of $375-405M (consensus: $380.2M) and EPS of $0.80-0.93 (consensus: $0.72).
    • Stifel (Buy rating) raises its Ultra Clean price target from $38 to $60, saying the strong quarter "sets up another year of outperformance in 2021."
    • Cowen (Outperform) moves its PT from $48 to $57, praising the upside results and outlook and noting that strong wafer fab equipment spending trends should be sustainable into next year, providing a durable tailwind for UCTT.
    • Deeper dive
    • Nissan Motor (OTCPK:NSANY) plans to suspend all the work at two of its factories due to delay in parts supply caused by an earthquake that hit Japan's northeast on Saturday.

    • The plants based in Oppama and Shonan will be closed for two days.

    • Toyota (NYSE:TM) also suspended its production on 14 lines in Japan due to earthquake.

    • Source

    • The Biden administration is joining the global leaders asking the Taiwanese government for help alleviating the global semiconductor shortage, which is hitting the automotive industry particularly hard.
    • In a letter viewed by Bloomberg, Biden economic adviser Brian Deese thanked Taiwan's minister of economic affairs for her ongoing efforts in the chip shortage and asked for chipmakers to allocate supplies to the U.S. as capacity becomes available.
    • Last week, news broke that President Biden is planning an executive order that would authorize supply chain reviews for critical goods like semiconductors.
    • Last month, Taiwan's Economic Ministry said foundry giant TSMC (NYSE:TSM) would prioritize auto chips if it sable to add capacity.
    • Shortages in other areas of the supply chain, the time and money required to add foundry capacity, and continuing supply-demand imbalances across numerous end markets will make for a complicated recovery from the shortage.

    • Green Plains (GPRE +2.9%) opens higher after three of its biorefineries enter into a long-term carbon offtake agreement with Summit Carbon Solutions, which plans to develop a carbon capture and sequestration project that will create the infrastructure to transport CO2 from Iowa to North Dakota for deposit into geologic storage.
    • Green Plains will initially connect its biorefineries at Fairmont, Minn., Fergus Falls, Minn., and Superior, Iowa, and have the option to expand to additional locations as the pipeline network grows.
    • When completed, SCS is expected to have infrastructure capable of capturing and sequestering 10M tons/year of carbon dioxide, the equivalent of removing more than 2M cars from the road each year.
    • Green Plains' current valuations are at a discount to historical levels, Opal Investment Research writes in a bullish analysis published on Seeking Alpha.
    • The weakness in the tech sector persist as the move in interest rates causes some consternation about the valuation in the sector and megacap stocks.
    • The Nasdaq (COMP) -1.2% is the laggard again among the major averages. The S&P (SP500) -0.8% and Dow (DJI) -0.8% are also down.
    • Longer-term rates are back on the front foot. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.31% and the 30-year is up 3 basis point to 2.1%.
    • But the move in real rates may be having more of an impact. The negative rates in inflation-protected securities have been cited as one justification for the high valuations of some of the biggest names. And they are now starting to creep up.
    • The 10-year TIPS yield is up 3 basis points to -0.91%. It has climbed 18 basis points from -1.09% a week ago.
      • People may be worried about that move because when real rates break, they tend to move rapidly, according to Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research.
      • You get "a little bit of a turn … then more of a turn, then pow! It just goes," Bianco told Bloomberg. "It will also be unsettling because, remember, who’s the biggest buyer of real yields? The Federal Reserve. They own 20% of that market."
      • The Big Six megacaps are all lower, with Tesla and Apple sliding the most.
    • Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) ADSs slide 1.6% in premarket trading after the Swiss bank cautions that the pandemic is "not yet behind us" and the pace of economic recovery remains uncertain, notwithstanding continued fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts.
    • Still, the bank is seeing a strong start to 2021, led by a substantial Y/Y increase in client activity. Its investment bank is benefiting from strong capital markets issuance activity across both fixed income and equity sales & trading. Its wealth management-related businesses are also seeing an increase in client activity.
    • Net interest income remains lower vs. Q1 2020 due to rate reductions and the weaker U.S. dollar, but CS sees this impact stabilizing Q/Q. Assuming FX rates stay at about current levels, "we would expect this to improve as we plan to increase our lending volumes," the company said.
    • Q4 underlying profit declined on lower net interest income and an increase in provision for credit losses.
    • Q4 adjusted pretax income, excluding significant items, was CHF 861M ($960M), down 10% Y/Y.
    • Q4 adjusted net revenue, excluding significant items, was CHF 5.3B ($5.9B), down 4%.
    • Q4 adjusted total operating expenses were CHF 4.3B, down 2% Y/Y.
    • Q4 provision for credit losses of CHF 138M increased from CHF 94M in Q3.
    • Q4 net interest income, excluding FX impact, was CHF 1.25B vs. CHF 1.39B a year ago.
    • Adjusted total wealth management-related revenue, excluding significant items at at constant FX rates, of CHF 3.4B declined 2% Y/Y with strong transaction-based revenue, up 15%, stable recurring commissions and fees, and lower net interest income, down 11%.
    • Global investment banking revenue of $2.5B rose 19% Y/Y,  — fixed income sales & trading was flat Y/Y, equity sales & trading was up 5%, and capital markets & advisory jumped 63%.
    • Previously (Feb. 18): Credit Suisse Group AG reports Q4 results

    Pandemic?  What pandemic?  What's all this nonsense about a pandemic?  


  6. Phil PFE Yes I do hold plays as well but they at present riding the wave on their Vaccine. In a year or so the market will be flooded with that and it might not even be needed any more. More and more companies come up with it as well. So we will see who will have a better run.


  7. Everyone (sarcastic): What pandemic?

    Taiwan (serious): Exactly.


  8. Anyone want a cool diversion from our COVID existence, be sure to watch the NASA's Perseverance Mars Rover landing today

    https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/timeline/landing/watch-online/

    Hooray for science!!!


  9. MRNA undergoes some great fluctuations. I do hold some comfortable Put verticals. Obviously pretty high, might be good to have a look at this stock.




  10. The SPAC Bubble Is About to Burst


  11. Supreme Court is still sitting on Trump’s tax returns, and justices aren’t saying why


  12. Mining boom could herald commodity ‘supercycle’


    • SunPower (SPWR -12.4%) slumps after issuing forecasts that fell short of estimates, seeing Q1 GAAP revenues of $270M-$330M vs. $337M analyst consensus estimate, and FY 2021 EBITDA of $120M vs. $123M consensus.
    • According to Bloomberg, Piper Sandler analyst Kashy Harrison blames the disappointing guidance on greater seasonality than expected, and shares likely will underperform given their massive outperformance this year compared with the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN -6.7%).
    • Roth Capital's Philip Shen thinks some investors may have been confused by SunPower's full-year EBITDA guidance, as "many were focused on the 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin guide and were expecting greater than 10%, though management clarified with us that this is just for the [residential] segment.
    • Cowen's Jeffrey Osborne says SPWR shares had been "priced to perfection," so he expects some weakness following the EBITDA guidance miss.
    • SunPower's earnings potential is "still extremely underestimated," Investing Hobo writes in a bullish analysis published on Seeking Alpha.
    • The Nasdaq (COMP) -1.1% is still seeing the most selling pressure among the major averages, although its well off mid-morning lows. The index is now down about 2% for the week and looking at a third-straight losing session.
    • In the broader market, the S&P (SP500) -0.8% isn't getting any help from cyclical sectors, despite higher rates.
    • The Dow (DJI) -0.7% is doing slightly better than the S&P, with another rally in Home Depot tempering a 5% drop in Walmart after it issued soft guidance.
    • Nominal Treasury yields are retreating slightly, with the 10-year down 1 basis point to 1.29% after rising up to nearly 1.32%. Real yields are still making a bigger move. The 10-year TIPS is up 5 basis points to -0.89%, a level last seen around early December.
    • Longer rates held strong despite some disappointing economic numbers before the bell. Jobless claims rose unexpectedly for the second week in a row to 816K. There will likely be some noise in those numbers coming up, with many people hindered from filing claims due to severe weather. Housing starts dropped more than expected in January, down 6%.
    • Ten out of 11 S&P sectors are lower, with Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) still the holdout.
    • Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) is now the biggest decliner, followed by Information Technology (NYSEARCA:XLK).
    • Amazon is the only megacap higher, as Facebook brings up the rear as it faces backlash from limiting content in Australia.
    • With attention turning to squeeze stocks as the Congressional hearing gets underway, AMC is among standouts today, up 5% on speculation Amazon may buy the theater chain.
    • The worst of the squeeze on natural gas supplies may have passed, as supply for next-day delivery at the Oneok (OKE -2%) Gas Transportation hub in Oklahoma traded at ~$10/MMBtu today, down from $1,250 yesterday, as temperatures begin to rise in Texas and neighboring states following several days of Arctic conditions.
    • Data from state grid operator Ercot shows electricity demand above 50 GW for the first time since Monday, as fewer blackouts are needed to keep the system stable.
    • ~525K homes and businesses in Texas were without power this morning according to Poweroutage.us, from more than 3M yesterday.
    • Nymex natural gas futures (NG1:COM) also are dropping, with front-month March gas -3.9% to $3.093/MMBtu.
    • Weather forecasts see much more normal conditions next week, as the cold blast ravaging Texas and other southern states recedes.
    • ETFs: UNGUGAZFDGAZBOILFCGKOLDUNLGAZGAZB
    • Natural gas-focused stocks are giving back some of their recent gains: AR -10.7%RRC -6.1%SWN -5%EQT -2%COG -1.8%.
    • EQT shares are coming off near two-year highs after easily beating expectations for Q4 earnings and revenues

    Not much reason for the recovery.

    This rumor is back on (WSJ):

    The world’s largest oil exporter plans to increase production, say advisers to the kingdom, a sign of growing confidence in an oil-price recovery.58 minutes ago

    I'm still 4 short – just rode out the move up.


  13. Thu, 18 Feb 21 13:16:03 -0500
    Benzinga.com

    InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

    3M (NYSE:MMM) has become the name to know when it comes to facemasks. The company beat earnings estimates on the strength of its medical business. This includes those N95 facemasks everyone wants to avoid the virus. And yet MMM stock is still pretty cheap.

    Source: Shutterstock

     

    In 2020, the company earned nearly $5.4 billion, $9.25 per share fully diluted, on sales of about $32.2 billion. It reduced debt during the year, and had over $8 billion in operating cash flow, $4.2 billion after paying out $3.8 billion in dividends. Management figures it can grow the company another 5% to 8% in 2021.

    But the stock is still cheap. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just 19. The dividend yields a fat 3.35%. And yet no one seems in a rush to get it. There are 10 analysts on it, and two say sell.

    No One Wants Value

    3M is another example of a continuing trend. No one wants value in this market.

    Despite a flood of retirees coming along looking to turn their IRAs and 401(k) winnings into regular income, stocks like MMM remain moribund. Options and momentum are negative. As one trader writes, “I don’t want to own” 3M.

    Well, I do. If you’re retired or about to retire, you should too.

    Over the last year, 3M stock is up about 11%. Add the dividend, and your total gain is 14%. Compare that to a 30-year bond at 2%.

    The stock fell out of bed in mid-2019, after a weak earnings report and the $6.7 billion acquisition of Acelity, a wound-care expert. In the wake of all that, it cut share repurchases. Before that deal, shares were trading at $216. They haven’t gotten close to $200 since.

     

    Still, you buy tomorrow, not yesterday. In the case of today’s Baby Boomer investors, you buy tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow. 3M has been paying a rising dividend for 62 years. Over the last five years the payout has increased from $1.11 per share to $1.48. It pays you to own it.

    The 3M Future

    This isn’t a food company or a consumer products outfit. One third of 3M sales come from products invented during the last five years. It’s a chemicals company, launching hundreds of new products each year. 3M Natural Pozzolans, for instance, is a powder added to cement that can reduce its environmental impact.

    That innovation will be important as President Joe Biden’s administration looks to take aim at what it calls “forever chemicals,”  additives that can cause cancer and don’t degrade. The folks at 3M downplay the impact, disagree on their cleanup costs, but in the end will be cooperative. Rivals who can’t are going to be hurt.

    Another brier patch 3M is happy to be thrown into is the controversy over counterfeit N95 masks. The company is busy verifying the legitimacy of such masks and helping destroy fakes. It’s a safety exercise but also a branding exercise.

    The Bottom Line on MMM Stock

    Right now, all stocks like MMM stock are “unloved and underpriced.”  In this market all the tech stocks are strong, all the SPACs are good looking, and all returns must be above average.

    Compared to these companies, 3M may look a little woebegone. But this is the ideal stock for a retiree, and there are more retirees, or about-to-be retirees, than ever.

    Two things are likely to happen when this pandemic ends. Millions of millennials are finally going to launch careers, and their Baby Boomer parents are going to look forward to a comfortable rest.

    If you’re over 65 and need 20 years of steady income, 3M is a must-have.

    At the time of publication, Dana Blankenhorn owned no shares (directly or indirectly) in companies mentioned in this story.

    Dana Blankenhorn?has been a financial journalist since 1978. His latest book is?S.BZ .R2 MMM 

     

  14. Bankers Don't Foresee Full Economic Recovery Until 2022 or Later

    Thu, 18 Feb 21 13:18:00 -0500
    Benzinga.com

     

    ARLINGTON, Va., Feb. 18, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Despite some improvements in outlook, banks remain skeptical that an economic recovery will take full effect in 2021, according to a new survey conducted by IntraFi Network (formerly Promontory Interfinancial Network).

    Two-thirds of the nearly 500 bank leaders who responded to the fourth quarter survey said the economy will not recover until 2022 or later. Almost a quarter of bankers said it will be at least 2023 before the economy returns to pre-pandemic level.

    "Despite multiple promising vaccines at various stages of being administered, it's clear bankers believe we still have a long way to go," said Mark Jacobsen, CEO and Cofounder of IntraFi Network. "It remains a challenging time for banks. Even though they are flush with liquidity, they face an uncertain credit environment and low loan demand."

    The survey also provided insights into where bankers believe the Biden administration will focus its attention when it comes to financial services issues. Forty-two percent expect the Biden administration will be most active in pursuing extensions and loan forgiveness related to the Payment Protection Program. Nearly half of respondents also said that making changes to the pandemic-era program was where the new administration would be most successful. Sixteen percent said President Biden would likely succeed in passing legislation to help banks assist marijuana-related businesses. Thirteen percent predicted the administration would enact housing finance reform changes, while the same proportion anticipated it would successfully enact policy changes to the Community Reinvestment Act.

    Many bank leaders expect the Biden administration to encourage a more active Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Thirty-one percent of respondents said new leadership at the CFPB will prioritize mortgage lending and servicing, with 20% saying the agency will focus on data privacy. Overdraft protections and debt collection were cited as the top agency priority by 19% of respondents.

    While some employers are considering whether or not they will require employees to get a COVID-19 vaccine before returning to work, bank leaders are decidedly opposed to such a mandate. More than nine in ten (92%) said their bank will not require employees to get a COVID-19 vaccination before returning to the office.

    Other Highlights

    • Funding Costs — Nearly half of respondents said they expect their funding costs to stay the same in the 12 months ahead, while 37% expect such costs to decrease.
    • Deposit Competition — Slightly less than half predicted deposit competition would remain the same in 12 months, with 20% expecting a decrease and 32% expecting an increase.
    • Loan Demand — The percentage of respondents that anticipated loan demand to improve in the next 12 months rose 2 points from the third quarter to 47%.
    • Access to Capital — A majority of bankers (70%) said they believe their access to capital will remain the same in the 12 months ahead, down five points from the previous quarter.

    To read the report in its entirety, please visit our new website.


  15. Yodi / AMGN

    AMGN seemed to have moved up.

    Would you do the BCS and short puts today or do the long 210 calls and short 210 puts today & cover the calls later?

    Thanks.


  16. Finally CL going down. What can be the good target price?


  17. 60 was my stop


  18. sk2020 this is the best way if you do not mind the cash outlay and do the short leap call later. Obviously you can leave it as well like a poor man*s trade.


  19. Oil/Kgab – You have to be happy with every quarter but I'm looking for $58 in the near future.  

    If anyone works direct with hospitals and needs Nitrile Gloves – I have 300M and 500M boxes available of KC 500s for $9.95/box.  NO RESELLERS. 


  20. I hope you guys are watching us land on Mars!