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Turn Back Tuesday – Europe Goes Back on Lockdown

The Fed's New Dot PlotGathering steam?

The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening,” Powell said in prepared testimony to be delivered today to the House Financial Services Committee. “But the recovery is far from complete, so, at the Fed, we will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes.”  Powell will be appearing before the committee along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as part of congressional oversight of the government’s response to the pandemic.

In forecasts released last week, Fed policy makers projected that the economy will grow 6.5% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace since 1983 when measured fourth quarter over the same three months a year earlier and would follow a 2.4% contraction in 2020 as a result of the pandemic.  Inflation, as calculated by the personal consumption expenditures price index, is seen in the Fed’s median forecast as ending 2021 at 2.4%.

That all sounds great but already we're seeing some recovery issues in Europe, where Germany is imposing a hard lockdown over the Easter Holiday in an attempt to reverse a new wave of infections.   Progress in fighting the crisis is showing signs of stalling. While fatalities in the U.S. and U.K. ease, places like India and eastern Europe are seeing a resurgence. Globally, we have only vaccinated 458M people – just 5% of the people.  You can't "win" in vaccines – the whole World needs to eradicate the disease or it can keep coming back in different variants. 

That makes Booking Holdings (BKNG), the old "Priceline",  an interesting short as their recovery very much depends on global travel and global travel looks like it might end up being a bit of a disappointment this summer as nowhere near enough people are vaccinated to responsibly lift travel restrictions and countries that have been too lax are already being forced to lock back down.

At $2,232, it's an expensive stock to short and we could just buy the Jan $1,000 puts at $15 – not because we think it will go down to $1,000 but because it's not likely BKNG goes over $2,400 and the Jan $800 puts are $7 so figure our loss shouldn't be more than 50% while a $200 drop should put us around where the Jan $1,200 puts are, which is $24 for +$9 and, of course, we can do a lot better.  

Another way to play is to buy 2 Jan $2,200 calls for $300 ($60,000) and sell 3 July $2,200 calls for $200 ($60,000) and that's net $0 so if BKNG is below $2,200 in July, whatever value is left on the long calls is profit and over $2,200, we have 6 months to roll and adjust the position.  It's a bit too risky and too large for our portfolios – but a fun trade to watch and see how it goes.

Expedia (EXPE) is also silly at $172, which is just under $25Bn for a company that makes $500M in a good year so 50 times earnings in the best case, which is unlikely.  Let's play EXPE short in our Short-Term Portfolio with the following:

  • Buy 10 EXPE July $190 puts at $28.50 ($28,500)
  • Sell 10 EXPE July $165 puts at $14.50 ($14,500) 
  • Sell 5 EXPE July $190 calls for $10 ($5,000) 

That's net $9,000 on the $25,000 spread that's $20,000 in the money to start so we only lose money if EXPE can get back over $180 into the summer.  In a Portfolio Margin account (and you shouldn't be doing naked short calls in an ordinary account), it only requires $6,663.40, so it's actually an efficient way to make $16,000 – hopefully.  

Meanwhile Powell is still spinning today and Biden is talking $3-4Tn in Infrastructure so don't count the market down yet – but the Russell is getting kind of ugly, so watch that 2,200 line – as a breakdown there could be big trouble for the indexes as well as, of course, 13,000 on the Nasdaq, 32,000 on the Dow and 3,850 on the S&P – none of which are in danger this morning.



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  1. Good Morning.

  2. Good morning all

  3. Biden eyes $3T package for infrastructure, schools, families

  4. Good morning!

    Mixed date to start the day:

    • February New Home Sales-18.2% M/M to 775K vs. 875K expected and 948K prior (revised from 923K).
    • +8.2% Y/Y
    • The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2021 was $349.4K, up from $346.4K in January. The average sales price was $416K vs. $408.8K in prior month.
    • The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 312K, representing a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate, up from 4.2 months in January 2021.
    • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says he predicts the FOMC will start raising rates next year as growth and inflation heat up.
    • Kaplan, a non-voting member and well-known hawk, said in a CNBC interview that year-over-year inflation will likely be 2.25% to 2.5% this year and the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 1.75% to 2%.
    • He acknowledges his "forecast for removing accommodation is more aggressive than the median Fed official."
    • Kaplan says his forecast has "improved meaningfully," with 6.5% GDP growth this year and unemployment falling to 4.5%.
    • Inflation should settle down in 2022, he adds.
    • If there is unemployment of 4.5% and inflation at 2.5% by the end of 2021 it will be "increasingly untenable" for the Fed to argue that that policy should be rates at zero, Megan Greene, senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, told Bloomberg.
    • The Treasury market saw some selling after Kaplan's remarks, with the 10-year yield paring losses. It's off 3 basis points to 1.65%. (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT)
    • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says in prepared remarks ahead of her congressional testimony that the U.S. can return to full employment next year.
    • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee today to face questions on the economic response to COVID.
    • In their prepared remarks, Yellen said she sees the potential for a return to full employment by next year, while Powell said the recovery is "far from complete."
    • Investors will remember a time when every public appearance by a Treasury Secretary had a question about the dollar, but the recent strength in the greenback has taken a back seat to the stimulus package and bond yields.
    • The dollar index is up 0.5% and back the levels last hit in late November 2020. (NYSEARCA:UUP) (NYSEARCA:UDN) (NYSEARCA:USDU)
    • Higher long-term rates are helping helping the greenback, while a move away from the euro as COVID cases increase is also providing support.
    • Analysts say that the dollar's ascent could reverse if 10-year yields fall back below 1.6%. The 10-year is off another 4 basis points to 1.64% this morning. (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT)
    • That decline has helped Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) (NASDAQ:QQQ) move into the green, but S&P futures (NYSEARCA:SPY) (QQQ) are still underwater.
    • Looking back at the dollar's performance in 2010 following a 2009 Financial Crisis decline, a dollar rally in the coming weeks makes sense, DataTrek Research says.
    • "No other major country is spending what the US is shelling out to recover from the pandemic, and America’s vaccine rollout has been solid," DataTrek writes.
    • The dollar acts as a safe haven during global recessions and crises. But looking further out the cycle (2006 – 2021) the dollar is trading like a secular growth vehicle, they note.
    • "No one would call the last 16 years the most stable or predictable in America’s history. But the dollar has done just fine. In short, if there’s a crack forming in the dollar’s secular, long run appeal we just don’t see it in this chart (below)."

    • Among stock sectors, Info Tech (NYSEARCA:XLK) gets the most international revenue at 57%, giving it the most exposure to margins hit by dollar strength. Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) follows, at 55%, then Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP), 44%, and Communications Services (NYSEARCA:XLC), 40%. (Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) is an outlier with oil priced in dollars.)
    • Given that exposure, tech could see some near-term weakness, DataTrek says.
    • "It’s not so much that markets care about the incremental margin from currency conversion; they really don’t. It’s more that a temporarily stronger dollar means all’s not right with non-US growth. Given these companies’ very global footprints that is a marginal negative about their aggregate earnings leverage in 1H 2021."
    • Citi said yesterday its outlook for dollar strength could change the "powerful trend" in oil and gas names.
    • Recent dollar moves haven't helped crude, which entered correction territory this morning on worries about European demand.

  5. IBM/Thanks for IBM ideas Phil/Yodi. Phil, you said $16k to roll from 32 '22 $120s to 32 '23 $115s for $7, wouldn't that be 7x32x100= $22,400 for the roll out? What do you think of the short sale of 15 May $135s at $3.2 first, as Yodi was suggesting then maybe roll out to '23 after that? Or would you say it's better to roll out first then sell more premium with the Jan $130s (or $135s?)?


  6. IBM/Wing – I think I was looking at $16-$22 = $6, not $7 but that's still $19,200.  Still the same concept though.  I'm not a fan of selling short earnings calls – especially in a stock I think is underpriced but to the extent you have naked longs to play with – it's not too terrible.  I'd still do the 2023s and only play with whatever is uncovered – not risk the whole thing on earnings.

  7. Food for thought: I believe growth in US COVID cases will peak in early/mid April, but at much lower rates than the prior peaks due to substantial background immunity (from vaccines and prior infections). Given the significant vaccination rates of at risk populations the death rates should continue trending lower with perhaps a plateau or tiny uptick. By mid May infection rates should be very low with death/hospitalization rates nearing zero by June 15. Developed international numbers will lag the US by 3 months or so, with significant variations. I still think that leaves us hearing good national travel news by early May (in reservations/bookings) and international by August 1. I'm unsure how the market will discount this and what's already priced in… but I do think we'll see a massive surge in summer travel (based in part on vacation requests at the 100,000 person enterprise I work for).

  8. Cases/Rick – Here's what bother me.  Globally, there are 124M cases with 70M recovered.  US has 30M cases so figure even 20M recovered leaves us with 10M active cases – that's still an insane base of cases.  With Social Distancing, etc, we're still getting 50,000 new/day which is 1.5M more per month – that's the peak we have to get behind – active infections.  Rushing to open is a very bad idea – even after witnessing 15 cases become 30M in the past 12 months, people still don't understand how infectious this thing is.  I agree that a lot of people WANT to travel and WANT to get back to normal but, ultimately, that's the problem as we're not out of the woods yet and rushing things can set us back considerably.

  9. Agree that we cannot rush, and safety is essential. Too many people have died from this disease. Consider: 30M US cases to date, conferring ~60% immunity = 20M immune. Current fully vaccinated =45M. So total immune 65M. Rate of vaccinations ~45M/month, with an average of 1.8 doses/vaccination (taking into account JNJ single dose). That's an additional 25M immune per month, so 90M by end April. The US has ~70M under age 18, so that's 160M who are immune or very low risk by 5/1/2021. If we add another 35M in May (given greater JNJ roleout, so same number of doses immunizes a greater # of people), that gets us near 200M which should approach heard immunity (won't quite reach true heard immunity until late June or early July) decreasing transmission markedly. 

    I'm also a believe in theories of "barrier immunity" – this is the concept of vaccinating super-spreaders and stopping the cycle of transmission. So, for example, if a Publix supermarket worker in November was seeing 200 people a day, and was an asymptomatic spreader, they could infect a huge number. But when these workers are immunized, their immunity creates a barrier to transmission of cases. I think this will play out in a virtuous cycle, cyclically dropping cases. 

    All that being said, I do think masks will be with us through 2022 as will some form of testing in certain areas and eventually required proof of vaccination for certain companies/industries. 

    Anyways, just my medical musings. I'm not sure how to play this into actual trades. 

  10. Keep in mind all the wild predictions for higher oil we were getting just two weeks ago.  Now they are struggling to get back over $60.




    Good morning! 

    Crazy move on oil thanks to Rent-A-Rebel:

    International benchmark Brent crude futures jumped above $70 for the first time in more than a year on Monday, before giving back those gains to trade in the red.

    The surge in prices came after Saudi Arabia said its oil facilities were targeted by missiles and drones on Sunday. A Houthi military spokesman claimed responsibility for the attacks.



    Ouch, not a good headline for Oil but it's a net draw so I'm tapping out if we go back over $65.

    13,000 Thursday – Nasdaq in Critical Territory

    Oil prices are up 80% since October and OPEC just increased their demand forecast by 200,000 barrels a day, which is nothing - and that's for the 2nd half of the year, so no reason to get excited in March.  In its report, the cartel noted that the crude stocks of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s rich nations dropped in January to 46 million barrels above the 2015-2019 average, with all three major global regions winnowing down the supply glut they built up during the worst of the pandemic.

    Meanwhile, OPEC’s report showed that Saudi Arabia last month cut 930,000 barrels of the million barrels a day that it had promised to unilaterally hold back from the market, according to secondary sources cited by OPEC.  That said, the organization still sees few fresh signs that U.S. production—which before the pandemic had challenged the cartel’s status as the world’s swing oil producer—will rebound to near its pre-coronavirus levels.  OPEC left its forecast for a 160,000 barrel-per-day increase in U.S. supply for 2021 unchanged, explaining that non-OPEC “upstream capital spending in 2021 is expected to remain well below 2019 levels, mainly due to the significantly lower projected investment in U.S. shale.”

    We think they are very wrong about that last part as all this free money sloshing around combined with the "use it or lose it" situation people who own oil fields find themselves in as we wind down our use of fossil fuels is a lot of incentive for US producers to pump all they can.  The US still imports 3Mb/d of oil and that means US producers still have a shipping advatnage over 3M competing barrels so of course they will work to fill that gap.  

    In our Short-Term Portfolio, we have the following position on the Oil Ultra-Short ETF (SCO), which is still good for a new entry:

    SCO Long Call 2022 21-JAN 6.00 CALL [SCO @ $6.52 $0.00] 75 2/16/2021 (316) $20,625 $2.75 $-0.85 $2.75     $1.90 $0.00 $-6,375 -30.9% $14,250
    SCO Short Call 2022 21-JAN 8.00 CALL [SCO @ $6.52 $0.00] -75 2/16/2021 (316) $-15,000 $2.00 $-0.70     $1.30 $0.00 $5,250 35.0% $-9,750
    SCO Short Call 2021 16-APR 8.00 CALL [SCO @ $6.52 $0.00] -50 2/16/2021 (36) $-3,500 $0.70 $-0.48     $0.23 $0.00 $2,375 67.9% $-1,125

    Notice we sold two sets of short calls as we didn't expect to get to $8 very quickly and it's only 50 days until April expriation on our net $2,125 spread that can pay us back up to $15,000 if oil is below $60 in January for a very nice $12,875 (605%) return on cash.  If all goes well, we can sell another set of calls and end up with a free spread.  Aren't options fun?  

    For today, $65 is a very nice shorting line on Oil (/CL) Futures – with very tight stops above.



    XOM/Rick – Oil hasn't been over $60 very much since 2015 – I don't see why ending the virus will put us back to higher levels.  I think the traders are way ahead of themselves on this one.

    Monday Market Momentum – Up the Down Escalator

    Other than the Fed, there's not a lot of data this week, even though it's a Quad-Witching Friday as we wrap up the quarter (from a market perspective) and our oil shorts should be paying off this week as we're done with the catalysts (see Thursday's Report).  

    You just have to look past all the BS and concentrate on the Fundamentals.

  11. I agree, Rick, US is on track but my premise was International will have a blown summer and World won't be normal until next year at best so what are travel agencies and stock markets so excited about?  

    Unrealistic expectations lead to very bad investing outcomes.

  12. Russell not looking good.  2,200 is the -2.5% line or we'd be in big trouble.  As it is, we'll see what kind of bounce we get but I say weak and follow-through lower tomorrow.

    Call it a rejection at 2,300 so down 100 gives us 20-point bounces.

    Dollar had a big run so they can yank it back down to bounce us.

    • The Canadian dollar skips down 0.3% against the U.S. dollar after Bank of Canada Deputy Governor said the central bank will end its quantitative easing programs that it introduced during the COVID-19 crisis to support market functioning.
    • He also said the Bank of Canada hasn't changed its outlook for the timing of rate increases.
    • "Regarding our ongoing purchases of (Government of Canada) bonds, Governing Council is evaluating how the process of adjusting these could unfold," Gravelle said.
    • The Bank of Canada has said it would keep interest rates at the effective lower bound of 0.25% until economic slack is absorbed; that's not expected to occur until into 2023 according to its latest projections.
    • The BOC will suspend its main short-term financing facility in May, Gravelle  said in a speech.
    • iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (NYSEARCA:EWC) slips 0.6%; Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trut (NYSEARCA:FXC) falls 0.2%.
    • The major averages are down slightly as Fed Chairman Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appear before the House Financial Services Committee.
    • The S&P (SP500) -0.1% and Dow (DJI) -0.1% are slightly lower and the Nasdaq (COMP) -0.3% is the weakest, despite slightly lower rates.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is off 3 basis points to 1.65%.
    • Concerns about rising COVID cases, especially in Europe, are weighing on yields as traders second-guess growth forecasts.
    • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said this morning he expected rate hikes to begin next year. But Kaplan leans very hawkish and Powell has stressed he wants to see actual economic progress before considering removing accommodation.
    • "Even GDP growth of 6.5% (the Fed’s new projection for 2021) is unlikely to produce the type of inflation in the near term that would cause Powell and his colleagues to tighten policy," strategists at Nuveen write.
    • As the current bull market enters its second year, LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick tweets that "looking at the 6 previous 30% or greater bear markets since WWII, year two was higher every single time. The avg return was 16.9%, but there was a double digit pullback on avg as well."

    • The S&P sectors are split, with five positive and six negative.
    • Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) has reversed course and is higher, even though crude -4.3% losses have accelerated.
    • Apple and Tesla remain the only megacaps in the red.
    • Among active stocks, reopening stocks are weak again and cruise lines are slumping.
    • Netflix is among the best S&P gainers after Argus upgraded shares to a buy.
    • The mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. rose in February, largely due to calendar-related issues — it's a short month and ended on a Sunday, reducing the number of days payments can be processed — according to Black Knight's "first look" at February month-end mortgage performance statistics.
    • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (30 days or more past due, but not in foreclosure) was 6.00%, up from 5.85% in January.
    • The increase came from early-stage delinquencies, while the number of loans 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure saw a modest decline.
    • While the prepayment rate crept up in February (2.85%) from January (2.63%), the recent rise in 30-year interest rate is likely to push prepayment rates down in coming months.

    Source: Black Knight

    • Foreclosure starts of 3,900 (-34% M/M) and active foreclosure inventory once again hit new record lows, as recently extended foreclosure moratoriums continue to suppress activity.
    • At February-end, the number of properties that are 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure increased by 56K from January to 3.186M.
    • Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure declined by 15K to 2.075M during the month.
    • Last week, the number of mortgages in active forbearance plans dipped below 2.6M, its lowest level since early April.

    • Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) has introduced three pieces of legislation that aim to lower prescription drug costs.
    • The Prescription Drug Price Relief Act would tie the price of prescription drugs in the U.S. to the median price in Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan.
    • The Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Act empowers the HHS secretary to negotiate lower drug prices under Medicare Part D.
    • The Affordable and Safe Prescription Drug Importation Act allows patients to import drugs from Canada and other countries.
    • Major pharmaceutical companies are mostly down this afternoon: Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) -1.2%, Merck (NYSE:MRK) -1.2%, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) -0.1%; Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) -0.3%, Abbott (NYSE:ABT) -0.2%; Abbvie (NYSE:ABBV) -0.3%, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) -0.4%, Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) -1.4%; Novartis (NYSE:NVS) +0.2%, GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) -1%, AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) -3.1%; and Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) -2.7%.
    • ViacomCBS is seeing a heavy sell-off (VIAC -6.8%VIACA -6.5%) in the wake of its $3B share offering ($2B in class B common shares, and $1B in Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock).
    • That's a move to get a cash infusion into its recently launched Paramount Plus streaming service as well as its ad-supported Pluto TV initiative.
    • The issuance may lead to a "significant" decline in the stock price if institutional demand is weak, Barclays' Kannan Venkateshwar says.
    • That's a risk that's "not immaterial," he writes, pointing to conversations with investors in 2021.
    • The offering itself is less of a surprise after ViacomCBS came into yesterday as the S&P 500's top performer of 2021, up 169% year-to-date.
    • Looking further back, to pandemic lows, VIAC is up 713% over the past year; it could be had at $11.28 last March vs. $93.52 today.
    • After completing the dosing of single ascending doses, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is advancing to multiple ascending doses in a Phase 1 study for PF-07321332, its investigational oral antiviral targeting SARS-CoV-2.
    • The SARS-CoV2-3CL protease inhibitor demonstrated potent in vitro anti-viral activity against SARS-CoV-2, and other coronaviruses, the company said indicating its potential as a treatment in the ongoing pandemic as well as against future coronavirus threats.
    • Pfizer plans to reveal the structure as well as pre-clinical data of PF-07321332 on April 6 at the Spring American Chemical Society meeting.
    • Protease inhibitors that bind to a viral enzyme (called a protease) and prevent the intracellular virus replication were found to be effective against viral pathogens such as HIV and hepatitis C virus.
    • Based in the U.S., the Phase 1 trial is a randomized, double-blind, sponsor-open, placebo-controlled, single- and multiple-dose escalation study in healthy adults to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of PF-07321332.
    • In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Pfizer CEO has shared his plans to expand its messenger RNA-based vaccine platform to target other viruses.
    • GameStop (NYSE:GME) -4.5% says Chief Customer Officer Frank Hamlin will leave the company, just hours before investors get the the latest quarterly results.
    • Hamlin will leave on March 31, according to a regulatory filing.
    • The move could be a furtherance of plans to shift company direction, with Chewy founder Ryan Cohen now taking a more active role in GameStop's transformation.
    • GameStop announced in February that its CFO would step down on March 26.
    • That decision was one of the possible catalysts for renewed retail enthusiasm that saw shares surge on a second squeeze.
    • The company is looking for a CFO with tech or e-commerce experience.
    • With shares up nearly 1000% year to date, GameStop will report earnings after the bell, the first numbers the market will get since the short and gamma squeezes.

  13. Phil, Anyone - Palantir,

    What's your take on Palantir.  They IPO'd recently and have pulled back significantly.  Their platform serves both commercial and government segments with deep data analytics to identify trends, patterns, signals etc.  Wanted to get the boards take.  TIA.

  14. RBLX is another recent IPO that looks very interesting.  It's a shared experience gaming platform that's super popular with kids.  It's an entire ecosystem of community developers, user generated content, etc.  It needs to play out a bit but suspect it's worth keeping on the radar.

  15. PLTR/Jeddah – This one is easy:

    Submitted on 2021/03/03 at 12:49 pm

    PLTR/Hicket – Specialty software mostly relies on Government spending and $54Bn is an INSANE valuation for a company with only $1Bn in revenues that only first broke even in 2020.  Let's say they immediately morph into the next MSFT and drop 30% of their revenues to the bottom line because all they do is sell the same thing over and over again every year.  They STILL need to get to $7.5Bn in sales to justify that cap which means a whole slew of Government agencies need to allocate 7x more of their IT budget to PLTR.  Will that take one year or 5 years?  

    This is just a cool-sounding start-up that's trading 150% higher than their own backers thought they should be priced at 6 months ago, when they went public at $10.  Just because they are slightly less idiotic at $24 than they were at $38 doesn't mean $24 is a good deal.  

    RBLX/Jeddah – OK, I won't say essentially the same thing about a one-game company with under $1Bn in revenues that's priced at $37Bn.   You keep it on your radar – I'd rather keep my radar clear for real opportunities.

    It's one thing if it were a $370M valuation like things like this were in the old days.  Even up from $100M – at some point you would think they can grow into it but how many companies on Earth are worth $37Bn – even after over 100 years of trying?  I don't know what's wrong with people that they forgot how hard it is to actually make $1Bn.  We talk about Trillions like it's nothing so people think paying $2Tn for a company is "just one of those things" when it's not – it's INSANE.  The REAL economy of the planet Earth is $80Tn – MAYBE you can justify AAPL being 2.5% of the Global Economy but now we have 5 $1Tn companies and moron analysts saying TSLA is a $1Tn company etc.   We lose all sense of reality here but there is a reality and, in the long run, it won't support this idiocy.

  16. Speaking of reality, RUT failed already.

  17. Just a quick question. If a Put is exercised is it being put the number of shares as a Long, or short?  I'm still having problems with TD and when I called they hung up on me. Trades were made ONLY I never made them? Wondering what is happening?

  18. Put/Pirate – The stock is PUT to you if you sold a put and they exercise it, forcing you to pay the strike price.  The money goes out of your account and the stock goes in your account long.  TD is, unfortunately, falling apart before our eyes.

    That was not a good finish! 


  19. Thanks Phil!  I knew they are speculative and WAY over priced being IPO's in a crack-infused market.  I'm always trying to keep an eye out for emerging new tech trends. 

  20. icant believe what they did with russel futures at 455 pm . had the weak bounce in one shot so nobody could play

  21. The World Is Facing a Coffee Deficit in Supply Chain ‘Nightmare’