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No Top Tuesday – Is there Ever and End to this Rally?

Up and up we go.

It's truly amazing that the Nasdaq has actually doubled off the March lows and it only fell 30% in March so we're up almost 50% from our pre-pandemic levels and was Trump really that bad for the economy that his policies were holding the market back from a 50% gain at the time?  

Much as I disliked Trump and his policies, no, they were not responsible for our "poor" market performance.  The Nasdaq was around 5,000 when he took office in 2017 – back to where it had peaked out in early 2000 – and Trump's tax cuts and low rates and weak Dollar rammed us up 140% higher by the time he left office to just under 12,000.  We were back to 7,000 last March on virus fears and now it turns out the virus must have been great for the economy as we're up to 14,000 – with Biden adding 2,000 more points (16.66%) in just two months of presidenting.  

Will we ever see a top to this market or will it just keep going and going?  CNBC had Tom Lee on yesterday and he predicts a "face-ripper rally" in April – as if 8% per month is a slow start to the year.  "I think there’s a level of surprise coming in April because we already had a strong finish beginning Wednesday of last week. It’s really three days of strong rallies and history shows this is really building up to be what could be a, potentially, S&P 4,200 before the end of the month,” Lee said.

Well, 4,200 is only up 5% for the month, so it's actually slowing and not ripping any faces that I can see but it makes a good headline and sound-bytes are what matter, right?  Meanwhile, the entire stock market rally is nothing compared to the explosion in Crypto Currencies in the past year as that market has goine from $200Bn last March to $2,000Bn today – up 10 times in 12 months!  

Where did that $2Tn come from?  What does it matter anymore?  The NFT market is likely to pass $2Tn as well as it's a much broader market and single NFTs are already being auctioned off for tens of millions of Dollars while a single Bitcoin is on "worth" $50,000.  The key issue here and in most of the market these days is people don't actually understand money anymore and they certainly don't understand debt, as evidenced by John Oliver this weekend – who tries to explain why we shouldn't worry about our $28,000,000,000,000 National Debt:

I love John Oliver but, as he will admit, he's only as smart as his writers and his writers are only as smart as their Facebook feeds and this idiocy that being $28Tn in debt doesn't matter in a $20Tn economy is no better than the climate denial or vaccine avoidance he rants and raves against on a regular basis.  Since I don't have an HBO show, I'm going to simply refute a few of the BS talking points he's spewing to justify our current infinite debt policies:

1) No, people don't come to collect the National Debt with baseball bats if you don't pay.  What does happen is that people stop lending you money, forcing you to print more money, devaluating your currency and placing a stealth tax on your people in the form of inflation.  Asset-class holders may come out OK but renters who live paycheck to paycheck (about half our population) get crushed.

2) Yes, there is nothing wrong with deficit spending if it is going to lead to economic growth but $1,400 checks do not lead to long-term economic growth, do they?  Giving out tax breaks so the Top 0.01% can make an extra $1Tn during the crisis last year does not improve our economy over the long run.  Roads, Bridges, Clean Water, Schools – these are INVESTMENTS in our future that are worth funding and even Biden's impressive-sounding Infrastructure Bill only allows for $300Bn a year for those things – about the same total as the $1,400 giveaway. 

3) No, it doesn't matter that we owe China money – unless we don't pay them.  Then we are in default and, when you default to anyone, the other people you owe money to may decide you are a credit risk – and then you can't borrow money from anyone and then back to #1.  You can only default if you don't need more money (like Iceland) – then you don't care if people think you are a credit risk as you're not looking for credit.  America is running a $3-4Tn deficit in 2021 and we're not likely to kick that habit in the near future, are we?  If we still need to borrow money – yes we care about owing money.  

4) America is not Amazon or Tesla – that's a terrible example.  Amazon spent money (and built infrastructure) to gain market share in a $6Tn retail economy and, after 20 years, has about 5% of it.  Tesla spent money to build car factories, also addressing a massive market and also has a tiny bit of it still.  It could also be argued that they are both wildly over-valued but let's not get into that.   The US, on the other hand, is 25% of an $85Tn Global Economy already and, as we are not often enough remined – there is no Planet B – this is all we have to work with.  We don't have 10x or even 2x economic growth in our future – unless inflation goes completely out of control or we kill everyone else on the planet – both plans are being considered, of course – some would say are in progress, in fact…

Robin Brooks's tweet - "Fed QE is running at a pace of 5% of GDP in 2021,  while the fiscal deficit will be at least 15%, leaving a 10 percentage  point funding5) Yes, there is such a thing as too much debt.  Too much debt is when the cost of servicing the debt impacts you ability to function.  That is what the real concept of economic slavery is – you end up working just to pay the debt and make no progress and have no way to escape your situation.  Here is where Oliver goes very far off the rails due to his lack of understand of how debt works.   No, we don't automatically riot when the debt goes too high but the reason the Greeks rioted was because the Government had to keep cutting back on services and laying off workers in order to service their debt and things got so bad in the country that people began to protest and riot.  Cause and effect.

The "magic" Oliver is pointing to is that somehow we have massively increased our debt while the cost of our debt service has gone down.  That's simply because the cost of borrowing money has gone down but THAT in itself is an illusion – a magic trick being played by the Federal Reserve to make it look like it's cheap to borrow money, only the Fed is artificially keeping the borrowing cost low by becomming the primary debt-holder – more than China, more than Japan – of our National Debt.  

As you can see on this chart, we USED to sell our debt to foreign Governments but they got smart and stopped buying years ago and now, over 90% of our debt goes to Pension Funds (that's you, sucker!) and our beloved Federal Reserve – who have bought $3Tn worth of notes in the past two years – essentially all of them.  Does the Fed ever have to stop buying?  We'd better hope not or we are completely F'd!  

The Fed is a magic trick, it's a distraction to make it seem like we're not just printing money to pay our bills but that's exactly what the Fed is doing – it's like the banker is cheating in Monopoly and uses the bank to buy properties – it ruins the game for everyone else and, more often than not, they stop playing with the cheater.  Well, we're the cheater and the rest of the World hasn't walked away yet – but what if they do?  

As John Oliver notes, if we can borrow money at 2% and use it to make 5%, then it's a good deal but we CAN'T borrow money at 2% except from the fake bank of ourselves and we're certainly not making 5% from it – our GDP has not grown much in the past 5 years – DESPITE the massive stimulus.  

And there is a way China, or any of our creditors can screw us over and that's to no longer lend us money and demand to be paid.  That is the beginning of the end of this game as it forces us to double down on the money printing (already happening)China has fired the first shot in the currency war this week by releasing the Cyber Yuan – its very own cryptocurrency.

This is state-sanctioned crypto that WILL be used in transactions in the World's 2nd-largest economy and, if China plays this right, they can turn the digital Yaun into a reserve currency to rival the Dollar and the Euro, which carries the danger of seriously devaluing our ever-expandable fiat currencies.  Beijing is positioning the digital yuan for international use and designing it to be untethered to the global financial system,

China’s version of a digital currency is controlled by its central bank, which will issue the new electronic money. It is expected to give China’s government vast new tools to monitor both its economy and its people. By design, the digital yuan will negate one of bitcoin’s major draws: anonymity for the user.  Digitization wouldn’t by itself make the yuan a rival for the dollar in bank-to-bank wire transfers, analysts and economists say. But in its new incarnation, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, could gain traction on the margins of the international financial system, where it is currently involved in just 4% of all global transactions (vs 88% for the Dollar).

So, like Amazon or Tesla, China has a lot to potentially gain by fixing the amount of Yuan in circulation using block-chain while the US can do nothing but lose market share and, in our current state of debt and deficits – we're in no position to stop printing Dollars.  It's a really good magic trick – but it's the same trick over and over and the Global audience is beginning to catch on to our trick and they are going to get bored and move on.  That's already happend in the bond market – if it happens in our reserves then you can start flashing those riot pictures as a preview of things to come….

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Good morning, anyone trading CS? Its cheap again, Phil thoughts on the stock?


  3. Good morning!

    CS/Kustomz – I was going to talk about them but I got side-tracked.  They lost $4.7Bn playing with Archegos (Arch Ego – what could go wrong?) and they don't make $4Bn in a good year so 2021 will be -$1.5Bn(ish) and that's front-loaded to their upcoming earnings so I would not be so quick to jump in and catch this falling knife. People are being fired, of course and who knows if their replacements are any better (not likely, they already didn't have the job and who wants to go over to a wounded CS?) and who knows what else a massive audit (inevitable) will uncover and what happens if clients begin moving their assets on fears the bank becomes insolvent and what kind of cutbacks will they have to make to get through this thing?

    Tempting but too many unknowns at the moment.


  4. I see your points, glass half empty LOL. 


  5. Phil,

    Interesting concept in an S.A. article regarding in-the-money short puts, specifically on VIAC. Basically, the thought was to sell significantly in-the- money puts (e.g.,June 50s for $9) to capture higher premiums. ViAC seems to be building a bit of a base so interesting risk/reward; can always roll down if VIAC breaks downward. Any thoughts on the concept, per se and the chances of getting exercised at different strikes (60, 70) ? 

    Thanks


  6. VIAC is trading around $44.60, so the $9 is not all premium, only about $5+ is premium.  Which is about what you'd get for selling an ATM $45 june ($5+).


  7. Closing positions/phil – thank you for the thorough response yesterday! I've read it and reread it as I believe your thoughts make tremendous sense. Thank you for taking the time to answer. Along those lines, here's a position I'm in for M:

    Bought 5 Jan 22 $3 calls for $3.80

    Sold 5 Jan 22 $10 calls for $1.41

    This has returned about $2000 on the max of $2300 returning about 87% of the max with 290 days left. I don't need the cash but is it best to close this out due to it having returned as much as it has?


  8. emailmike,

    Re ViAC – right you are. I used June 50s (net $5) as an example because of the higher OI  (11k) versus the June 60s ($17) with OI of only 1.4k (net $12).


  9. VIAC/8800 – We do that rarely in the LTP if we think something is very stupidly low and we REALLY want to own it long-term.  Our protection is that we'll generally have a credit entry so our worst case is owning 1x at the strike with a plan to roll and DD once or twice (so we do it with small 1/4 allocations at most).  So If I were to sell VIAC June $50 puts for $9 since we think they are so undervalued, we're selling just $3 of premium and obligating ourselves to own VIAC at net $41.  

    If, on the other hand, I were to sell the Jan $45 puts for $9, my net entry is $36, so 15% cheaper and, if I use that money to buy 2 of the Jan $40 ($10)/$55 ($4.85) bull call spreads at $5.15 – my net cost of the $25 spread is $1.15 and my worst case is owning 1x at net $45.15.  I'd much rather go that way.

    M/Swamp – In this case it's silly to keep it since you KNOW you can do better than make $300 on $2,000 in 9 months.  Again though, it's $300 coming to you and if all you are going to do is put the $2,000 in your broker account with your other $500,000 and get no interest, $300 is 15% of $2,000.  

    The thing is, if I want to make $300 with M, I can just sell 5 of the 2023 $16 puts for 0.60 and that only obligates me to own $8,000 worth of stock vs $5,000 you are committed to now.


  10. Phil,

    Thanks for the VIAC perspective. The 1/23s provide a better entry level for the long term, unquestionably. I was looking at it as a source of revenue rather than an entry level. The Jun '21 50s fetch $9 in 3 mths  ($3/mth) whereas the June '23 50s provide $15 in 22 mths ($.45/mth).


  11. VIAC/8800 – They only "fetch" $9 if VIAC is over $50, which is up 15% from where it is now.  If it's flat, you make $3, if it's down 15% to $38, you lose $3 so there's only one gate in which you make good money, they MUST go up for you to win.  If we sell the $45 puts with the $40/55 spread, then flat pays you $8 – $5 = $3, $38 would cost you $8.15 (assuming you let the spread go worthless) and $55 would make you $28.85.  Again, if you REALLY want to own VIAC, then it makes sense to have more upside.  If rolling and adjusting if VIAC  goes lower doesn't bother you – it's an easy decision.


  12. Phil,

    Thanks for the additional VIAC insight. Understood .


  13. Wow, dead volume today:

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Apr 06, 2021 405.76 407.24 405.51 406.50 406.50 35,245,111
    Apr 05, 2021 403.46 406.94 403.38 406.36 406.36 91,560,300
    Apr 01, 2021 398.40 400.67 398.18 400.61 400.61 99,599,100
    Mar 31, 2021 395.34 398.00 395.31 396.33 396.33 112,734,200
    Mar 30, 2021 394.42 395.45 393.02 394.73 394.73 76,262,200
    Mar 29, 2021 394.40 396.75 392.81 395.78 395.78 108,107,600
    Mar 26, 2021 390.93 396.41 390.29 395.98 395.98 113,023,400
    Mar 25, 2021 385.98 390.55 383.90 389.70 389.70 116,128,600
    Mar 24, 2021 391.00 392.75 387.47 387.52 387.52 97,588,600
    Mar 23, 2021 391.91 393.46 388.66 389.50 389.50 90,686,600
    Mar 22, 2021 390.03 394.07 389.97 392.59 392.59 73,778,600

    Not sure what's up on a Tuesday…

    • Compared to the ~3.0% rise in the S&P 500, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -1.5%) has climbed ~7.2% since the company lifted its FY21 guidance with second-quarter results announced last week.
    • Notwithstanding the COVID-related uncertainty in H2 FY21, the company has upped its FY21 adjusted EPS guidance to mid-to-high single-digit growth from the earlier single-digit growth.
    • With Q2 FY21 results beating the consensus, the analysts at Bank of America observe a lack of clarity over the guidance raise questioning the size of the H2 FY21 upside compared to the previous estimate.
    • Citing FY21 uncertainty due to COVID-related headwinds and expected tailwinds, Michael Cherny and the team think the $5.14 EPS estimate for FY22 as ‘prudent’ based on management comments and a ‘reasonable mid-single digit “normalized” growth rate.’
    • The firm reiterates the underperform rating and the price target of $47.00 per share for the stock implying a ~17.3% premium to the last close.
    • Despite a bullish view of authors, Walgreens Boots Alliance had its quant rating on Seeking Alpha changed to neutral at the end of March. 
    • Despite high uncertainty levels still prevalent, the International Monetary Fund is optimistic about global growth this year; it raised its 2021 GDP forecasts (for second time in three months) to 6% from its 5.5% January forecast levels led by stronger economic recovery amid vaccine rollouts.

    • For 2022, global GDP is seen increasing by 4.4%, higher than an earlier estimate of 4.2%.
    • "Even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in the latest World Economic Outlook report.
    • She further added that the outlook presents daunting challenges related to divergences in the speed of recovery both across and within countries and the potential for persistent economic damage from the crisis.
    • The divergent recovery paths are likely to widen the global gap in living standards, IMF added; fund estimated per-capita income losses over the 2020-22 period in emerging and developing markets excluding China at the equivalent of 20% (worse than 11% the IMF foresees for advanced economies) of the per-capita 2019 GDP figures.
    • Advanced economies 2020 growth is estimated at 5.1% while U.S. is seen expanding by 6.4%; emerging and developing economies' growth is 6.7% for 2021, with India expected to expand by as much as 12.5%.

    • "Among advanced economies, the U.S. is expected to surpass its pre-Covid GDP level this year, while many others in the group will return to their pre-COVID levels only in 2022," Gopinath added.
    • In its last week report, IMF indicated that faster progress in ending the health crisis could add almost $9T to global GDP by 2025.

    Look how crazy CROX got:

    • Vera Bradley (VRA +3.0%) and Crocs (CROX +3.6%) announce a new partnership with an exclusive footwear collection debuting today.
    • The Vera Bradley + Crocs collection is said to combine Vera Bradley’s signature bright patterned designs with Crocs’  style and innovation. The collection will feature Crocs’ iconic Classic Clog and a new style, the Kadee Sandal.
    • “Encouraging individuality and self-expression are hallmarks of the Crocs brand and Vera Bradley is the perfect partner to embolden our consumers to feel more comfortable in their own shoes," says Crocs marketing exec Emily Sly
    • Source: Press Release
    • Shares of Crocs are having a solid day after the VRA development. Last month, it was a Justin Bieber partnership that pushed up the stock.
    • Goldman Sachs (GS +0.8%) purchased ~£75M (~$104M) in Deliveroo shares to support trading in the U.K. food delivery company after the stock received a cool reception in its market debut, the Financial Times reports, citing two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
    • Shares of the Amazon-backed company sank as much as 31% on their first day of trading on March 31. Volume as about a third of what Deliveroo's advisers had expected, the FT said.
    • The amount of stock purchased by Goldman represents almost a quarter of the value of shares traded in the company during its first two days as a public company, according to Bloomberg data.
    • Goldman has only used about half of the overallotment option it was granted, one person with knowledge of the deal told the FT.
    • Between the £75M of purchases and its overallotment, Goldman should have made a profit from Deliveroo's dropping share price. However, those profits were given back to Deliveroo as part of an agreement between the two companies.
    • Deliveroo shares closed today at £2.80, giving the company a market value of £5.1B, compared with with £7.6B IPO valuation.
    • The IPO had priced at the bottom end of its expected range of £3.90-£4.10.
    • During today's investor day presentation, Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) provided FY24 guidance that includes $23.4-31B in revenue, $7-10 EPS, gross margin of 47.5-48.8%, and operating margin of 30.6-32.7%.
    • In FY20, revenue totaled $17.2B, EPS was $4.17, gross margin was 45.1%, and operating margin was 26.3%.
    • Back to the FY24 outlook, revenue was broken down into $16.2-21.7B for Semi Systems (vs. $11.4B in FY20), Services sales of $5.6-6.7B (vs. $4.2B), and Display revenue of $1.6-2.7B (vs. $1.6B).
    • Reference link: Presentation slides.
    • AMAT shares are down 4%. Semi equipment peers Lam Research (LRCX -1.8%), KLA (KLAC -3.3%), and ASML (ASML -3.0%) are also trading in the red.
    • Related: Yesterday, Applied Materials launched a new platform to accelerate chip technology discovery.

    • In the latest Fund Market Insight Report by Refnitiv Lipper, investors saw equity funds post a fourth consecutive quarterly gain of +6.31%.
    • Breaking down the report and market participants can see where investment flows went over the first quarter of 2021.
    • Exchange traded fund investors were net purchasers for Q1 +$221.6B, injecting $182.2B into equity ETFs which saw their twentieth consecutive quarter of net inflows, $34.4B into taxable fixed-income ETFs, and $4.9B into municipal debt ETFs.
    • Additionally, for the first quarter in three, market participants were net purchasers of money market funds +$185.8B.
    • Small-cap value funds were at the top of the performance list, having their best showing since the Q4 of 2016, +22.12% on the quarter. After small-cap value came small-cap core funds +15.90%, mid-cap value funds +15.19%, and S&P mid-cap 400 index funds +13.3%.
    • Each of the above performances reflects quarterly gains, see full chart below.

    • On the commodities front, there were a couple of significant areas that generated positive quarterly returns. Energy funds finished the quarter +20.97% and benefitted from a vaccine-related rise in oil futures, while precious metals funds finished to the downside -5.56%. Below is a complete breakdown of the commodities fund space for Q1.

    • The yield curve continues to flatten a little today.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is down 6 basis points to 1.66%. The 30-year is down 4 basis points to 2.32% and the 2-year is off 1 basis point to 1.61%.
    • (NYSEARCA:TBT) -1.1% (NASDAQ:TLT) +0.6%
    • The run-up in yields has been fast, "but compare it to the reality that nominal GDP in the U.S. is growing by 10%, it just looks incredibly tame," Padhraic Garvey, ING head of debt and rates strategy, says.
    • It's good that the bond market isn't panicking, but it's only a matter of time before yields move higher, he told Bloomberg.
    • Current inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.3, around 8-year highs.
    • The prices paid component of the March ISM index came in at the highest level since 2008. The March Philly Fed showed a rise in prices paid to the highest level since March 1980.
    • Inflation is going to be 3-4%, 2% over this year and 2.5% at the turn of the year, Garvey said.
    • "Major economies are set to enter the reflation phase of the recovery in 2Q, in which both growth and inflation should increase," UBS says, but the near-term spike will "prove temporary."
    • But as this spike occurs, negative real rates will be a drag on on returns, so there's strong incentive to put cash to work.
    • "In a low-rate, rising-inflation, high-stimulus environment, investors looking to protect and grow their real wealth will need to put their excess cash to work."
    • Treasury prices in Q1 fell the most since 1980.
    • Intel (INTC -0.5%launches its 3rd Gen Intel Xeon Scalable processors (code-named “Ice Lake-SP”), which are aimed at data centers, 5G networks, and intelligent edge infrastructure. The products compete with AMD' (AMD +1.2%) EPYC processors.
    • The 3rrd Gen processors were built on 10nm process technology and can deliver up to 40 cores per processor and up to 2.65x higher average performance gain compared to a five-year-old system. The platform supports up to 6TB of system memory per socket, up to 8 channels of DDR4-3200 memory per socket, and up to 64 lanes of PCIe Gen4 per socket.
    • The company bills the processors as the "only data center processors with built-in AI " and says the CPUs offer on average 46% increased performance on popular data center workloads.
    • The processors include Intel DL Boost technology for AI acceleration and offer data and application code with Software Guard Extension (Intel SGX) and Crypto Acceleration.
    • Intel says the 3rd Gen Xeon Scalable processors are rapidly ramping, with more than 200,000 units for revenue shipping during Q1. The processors have more than 250 design wins with 50 unique OXM partners, more than 15 major telecom equipment companies, and over 20 HPC-related customers.
    • “Our 3rd Gen Intel Xeon Scalable platform is the most flexible and performant in our history, designed to handle the diversity of workloads from the cloud to the network to the edge,” says Navin Shenoy, executive vice president and general manager of the Data Platforms Group at Intel. “Intel is uniquely positioned with the architecture, design and manufacturing to deliver the breadth of intelligent silicon and solutions our customers demand.”
    • Xeon Scalable processor families have a lot of members to suit a wide variety of needs and budgets. You can see the full list of products here.
    • Related: Intel recently announced plans to invest $20B this year to build chip fabs in a push to become a global foundry player.
    • Forget about toilet paper, hand sanitizer and semiconductors, restaurants are having trouble securing enough ketchup. With the COVID-19 pandemic turning many sit-down restaurants into takeout businesses, packet prices have risen 13% since January 2020, according to restaurant platform Plate IQ. Some stores can't even get their hands on enough of the condiment, WSJ reports, with managers using generic versions, dishing out bulk ketchup into single-serve cups or seeking secondary suppliers due to the demand.
    • Backdrop: Ketchup is the most used table sauce in the U.S., logging over $1B in U.S. retail sales during 2020, about 15% higher than 2019. Around 300K tons of the tomato condiment were sold to restaurants last year and recent CDC guidelines could be exacerbating the situation. "As restaurants and bars resume and continue operations… Avoid using or sharing items that are reusable, such as menus, condiments, and any other food containers. Instead, use disposable or digital menus (menus viewed on cellphones), single serving condiments, and no-touch trash cans and doors."
    • How is the ketchup king handling the situation? Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) holds nearly 70% of the U.S. retail market for the condiment, but it was caught off guard by the pandemic. "Restaurants need patience" while the company ramps up supply, said Steve Cornell, President of Enhancers, Specialty and Away from Home Business Unit. "We're busy doing everything we can."
    • Go deeper: To deal with the shortage, Heinz is planning new manufacturing lines, including two this month and more after that. The goal is increasing production by 25% to bring the total of ketchup packets produced per year to 12B. The firm is already running extra shifts at plants, and cut back on some sauce varieties to focus on single-serve packets. Heinz also came up with a no-touch ketchup dispenser to help meet demand for alternatives to shared bottles.
    • "Kraft Heinz generated 6.5% organic sales growth in 2020," writes Julian Lin, "but can it continue?" Read Kraft Heinz Stock At 2-Year High: Debt Is What Matters.

  14. CROX run up feels like October 2007 all over again!! Consider yourself warned!!


  15. Nearly half of new US virus infections are in just 5 states


  16. Good morning, everyone. Here is the link to today's webinar. We are having a subscription boost as we plan to roll out an updated website soon so feel free to use the link to send out invites to today's webinar. 

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2324771516041838861