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Tuesday – Top Trade Review – Q1 2020

Not much is happening so let's review our Top Trade Alerts and see how they're doing.

Top Trade Alerts are trade ideas I feel have an excellent chance of success.  Usually they are news-driven – trades on stocks I expect to make a move in the near future – not just a simple value play.  Nonetheless, we set them up as long-term value trades as we don't need to make short-term bets to get great short-term results.  However, we do need a few months so we're not going to look at the most recent trade ideas.  

Since January of 2020 there have been over 60 Top Trade Ideas, not quite one per week.  The secret to the success of our Top Trade Alerts, which historically have an 70%+ win rate, is that we DON'T just pick trades because we feel we have to.  We try to pick one a week but some weeks we pick 3 and some we pick none.  Forcing trades to fulfill arbitrary expectations is the downfall of many market newsletters.  

We don't make our Top Trade Alerts complicated (and you can sign up here to get them fresh), they are generally "set and forget" trades for the less active traders, who just want to build a good portfolio one trade at a time.   We won't get this review done all at once but let's start getting through our trades starting in Jan of 2020 – as it will be interesting to see how we rode out the crash and recovery.  

In the interest of space, I'm just going to reprint the actual trade and the chart, not the commentary, which you can see by following the links.  We're going to assume no adjustments were made and just see how the positions performed.

Top Trades for Mon, 06 Jan 2020 14:53 – HRB

I guess it would be a good Butterfly candidate but it stays down too long so we generally just play it bullish into April.  March earnings are not likely to be exciting but, for the Earnings Portfolio, let's play HRB like this:

  • Sell 5 HRB 2022 $22 puts for $3.50 ($1,750) 
  • Buy 15 HRB July $20 calls for $4.10 ($6,150) 
  • Sell 15 HRB July $24 calls for $1.60 ($2,400) 

That's net $2,000 on the $6,000 spread so $4,000 of upside potential at just $24 is a nice, conservative way to make 200% – though you have to wait a while on the put side.  

Here we put $2,000 to work and on July 17th of 2020, the stock was at $14.11 due to the Covid crash, so the $20/24 spread expired worthless.  It looks like the short puts are in good shape, now $1.40 ($700) but, even if they do expire worthless, this position is a $2,000 loss.  

Top Trades for Wed, 15 Jan 2020 15:03 – IMAX

In the Webinar, we wanted to add IMAX to the STP, which is going to be the LTP so really, this is for the LTP:

  • Buy 50 IMAX June $17 calls for $4 ($20,000) 
  • Sell 50 IMAX June $20 calls for $1.90 ($9,500) 
  • Sell 50 IMAX June $20 puts for $1.30 ($6,500) 

That's net $4,000 on the $15,000 spread so $11,000 (275%) upside potential if IMAX is over $20 on June 19th.  The risk is being assigned 5,000 IMAX at $20 ($100,000) but, realistically, maybe they are down 20% to $16 and the loss (if not rolled or stopped) is $4 x 5,000 or $20,000 – that's the true risk.  ToS says $8,494 in ordinary margin is required – pretty efficient.

You can see why we got away from short-term trades!   IMAX expired in June at $12.20 so the $17/20 spread went worthless and we were assigned 5,000 shares of stock for $20 ($100,000), plus the $4,000 we put into the trade was net $104,000.  Fortunately, it came back nicely and is now $21.53 so $107,650 is up $3,650 – not thrilling but it beats losing and, again, this is if you played it passively – which we don't.

Top Trades for Fri, 17 Jan 2020 10:59 – MIDD

For the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP), let's:

  • Sell 10 MIDD Dec $110 puts for $10.70 ($10,700) 
  • Buy 10 MIDD Dec $100 calls for $19 ($19,000)
  • Sell 10 MIDD Dec $120 calls for $9 ($9,000) 

That's a net $700 credit on the $20,000 spread that's $10,000 in the money at the moment.  Upside potential is $20,700 (2,957%) in less than a year and our worst case is owning 1,000 shares of MILL at $110, but then we can sell the next year's $100 calls for $20 and drop our net to $90 so not much downside there

That was a close one, we got that nice pop on November earnings and the options expired on Dec 18th at $131.86 so we collected the full $20,000 on the spread and the short puts expired worthless for the full $20,700 profit.

Notice we have a tax firm, a movie company and a restaurant supply company.  Diversification is the key to surviving market corrections.  

Top Trades for Thu, 23 Jan 2020 13:36 – VIAC

How about VIAC?  $37.22 is $23Bn and they should make around $3.3Bn this year and more next year. In fact, that's a good one for the LTP:

  • Sell 10 VIAC 2022 $32.50 puts for $4 ($4,000) 
  • Buy 30 VIAC 2022 $35 calls for $7 ($21,000)
  • Sell 30 VIAC 2022 $42.50 calls for $4 ($12,000) 

That's net $5,000 on the $22,500 spread so the upside potential is $17,500 at $42.50 and the risk is owning 1,000 shares of VIAC for net $37.50 (about where it is now).  This is a first round, of course, we hope it gets cheaper and we can sell more puts and add more longs or widen the spread but, if it doesn't – we'll take the $22,500 as we should end up with at least 20 positions in the LTP (plus 20 naked short puts) – even in a "normal market" (we had more like 40 long positions in the last LTP.  

Still in progress and this became one of our favorite stocks when they went on sale.  At the moment, the $35/42.50 spread is net $4 ($12,000) and the short puts are $1.90 ($1,900) for net $10,100, which is up $5,100 (102%) so far but another 100% left to gain by January at just $42.50, so it's still good for a new spread.

Top Trades for Fri, 31 Jan 2020 12:23 – DFS

For the LTP, we can simply play them not to go lower with this spread:

  • Sell 10 DFS 2022 $70 puts for $8 ($8,000) 
  • Buy 20 DFS 2022 $60 calls for $18.50 ($37,000) 
  • Sell 20 DFS 2022 $75 calls for $11 ($22,000) 

That's net $7,000 on the $30,000 spread that's in the money to start.  All DFS has to do is hold $75 and we make $23,000 (328%) and,  if they recover back to the $80s, we can even sell some short calls for income while we wait. 

We'rr

We're miles in the money on this one and the $60/75 spread is now net $14.50 ($29,000) and the short puts are $1.25 ($1,250) so net $27,750 for a $20,050 profit and we can "only" make $2,250 more (11%) in the next 6 months and you KNOW we can do better than that so no point in keeping this one open. 

So we had a very good start to the year with net $47,500 in profits with 4 out of 5 trades coming up winners – despite the very, very bad Covid correction ahead.  By mid-February, I was becoming very concerned about Covid and we didn't pick another Top Trade until the 12th, but then we added a hedge as well:

Top Trades for Wed, 12 Feb 2020 10:55 – SKT and SPY Hedge

SKT is $13.35 and you can sell the 2022 $13 calls for $1.80 and the 2022 $13 puts for $3.10 so that's net $8.45/10.725 if assigned so either you own 2x the shares at $10.725 (and then sell more puts and calls to lower the basis) or you get called away at $13 with a $4.55 profit (53.8%) and they pay a $1.43 dividend while you wait, which is 17% of $8.45 and would increase the overall profit by $2.51 (you missed the first payment) so $7.06 profit potential is 83.5% at $13!

Let's add 2,000 to the LTP!   

Although 

Although SKT is at $18.48, we have limited ourselves to getting called away at $13 for $26,000 from our $16,900 entry so $9,100 in profits and $716 + $356 + $356 ($1,428) in dividends (they skipped a few during the crash and then lowered them) for a total of $10,528 gained

As to the hedges, they were an SDS Sept $23/30 spread at $1.10 and SDS topped out at $44 in March with this spread hitting well over $5 but I'm not going to count that for or against but hedges are absolutely trades you take off when they get near your goals – we would not have ridden them out.  The same goes for the SSD  Sept $80/85 spread at $3, which expired at $96.65 for a winner at $5.  If you read the entire post, the SSD was an offset to the cost of SDS though, in the end, they both paid off.

Top Trades for Thu, 13 Feb 2020 11:28 – SPWR and Futures Shorts

 

Since we can get $2.50 now for the 2022 $8 puts and since that's pretty much free money, let's sell 10 in the Future is Now Porfolio ($2,500) and, for the LTP, let's:

  • Sell 20 SPWR 2022 $8 puts for $2.50 ($5,000) 
  • Buy 40 SPWR 2022 5 calls for $5.15 ($20,600)
  • Sell 40 SPWR 2022 $12 calls for $2.40 ($9,600) 

That's net $6,000 on the $28,000 spread that's $16,000 in the money to start with $22,000 (366%) upside potential at $12 in two years.   I don't mind waiting for that and our worst case is owning 2,000 shares at net $22,000 or $11/share so even if SPWR is down at $5, if we bought 2,000 more for $10,000 our average would be $8 (less than it is now) for 4,000 shares and we could sell $5 puts and calls to drop our basis.  I would almost prefer that to making the $16,000!

Our Members know how much I love SPWR – it's in all of our Portfolios.  We're miles in the money on this  one and expect the full $22,000 gain so I'm not even going to bother doing the current math.  As to the Futures shorts.  On Thursday the 13th, I said:  

I'm going short on /NQ (2) at 9,615 and 2 /RTY at 1,690 and I'll add 2 more if they go higher but also looking for 2 more short /ES at 3,380 – these are for the weekend, but so was yesterday but then they make $10K so screw that!

As you can see, we were well-timed with our market short calls.  Ultimately the Nasdaq (/NQ) fell below 7,000 for a $52,000 per contract gain (and similar for the others) but, as above, we're not going to count those as it was players choice when to take advantage of the shorts.  We just like to point out these opportunities for our Members when we can.

Top Trades for Mon, 02 Mar 2020 15:27 – WBA

WBA definitely belongs back in the LTP so let's:

  • Sell 10 WBA 2022 $45 puts for $7 ($7,000) 
  • Buy 20 WBA 2022 $40 calls for $9.65 ($19,300)
  • Sell 10 WBA 2022 $55 calls for $4.50 ($4,500)

That's net $7,800 on the $30,000 spread so the upside is $22,200 (284%) but lots of room to sell calls on a bounce or, if things do get worse, we can sell more calls and roll the $40s lower.  Lots of options.

This one is right on target with 6 months to go.  At the moment, the $40 calls are $12.25 ($25,000) and the short $55s are $2.85 ($2,850) and the $45 puts are $2 ($2,000) for net $20,150 profit so far and at $55 we should hit $30,000 so a nice 50% to go over the next 6 months still.  

Top Trades for Tue, 10 Mar 2020 13:27 – SIX and AAPL

I guess I would not sell puts but I would take the SIX 2022 $15 ($8.50)/$22.50 ($5.50) bull call spread at $3 and, if they go lower, THEN you could sell the $10 puts (now $2.50) and roll the $15s to the $10s.  Let's do 40 of those in the LTP and see how it goes

Boy did we underestimate that reccovery!  This spread will make the full $18,000 but we took it off the table ages ago (we also did sell those puts for more profits).  

Have to sell 5 AAPL 2022 $230 puts for $30 ($15,000) in the LTP.  Very happy to DD if they go lower and, of course, build a bullish spread around them if they don't.

More free money as AAPL split 4:1 on August 28th so we ended up with 20 2022 $57.50 puts which are now just 0.50 ($1,00) for a $14,000 gain so far.

Top Trades for Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:36 – MTN

Damn, I forgot the reason we don't play MTN is because they don't have long-term options but they do have December and we can sell 10 MTN Dec $100 puts for $11 ($11,000) in the LTP because people don't understand that the 2019-2020 ski season ends in April anyway – not as bad as it sounds.  

I'd love to also buy the $140 ($48.50)/$180 ($28.50) bull call spread for $20 but we are collecting money ($150,000 in two weeks) for the LTP, not spending it unless necessary (roll downs).

The short December puts expired worthless for the full $11,000 and boy did we get a cheap entry on the bull spread but I'm not going to count that as we didn't follow up in Top Trades (it was in our Premium Member Chat).  

Top Trades for Wed, 18 Mar 2020 06:39 – Hedging for Disaster

Again, we're not counting the shorts as they are quick trades and hard to say when someone got out.  In fact, we were only hedgeing to set up our buys as we were starting to get bullish (read post for my logic).  As I said at the time:

Image result for zombie apocalypseStill, unless we are heading into a real Zombie Apocalypse, where humanity is wiped out and replaced by a mindless hoard with no interest in food, fashion or fun – we will survive – even if surviving means locking ourselves in a bubble and shopping via Amazon drones with our Universal Basic Incomes.  

Even THAT would still have our GDP around $12Tn, down 40% from where it was but certainly not $0 – that's why a sell-off past these levels is silly and can't last – and that's the worst possible case – the actual case is probably quite a bit better than that – we just have to get through the next few months. 

Locking ourselves in a bubble and shopping via Amazon drones with our Universal Basic Incomes is exactly what we did for the rest of 2020!  

Top Trades for Mon, 23 Mar 2020 09:53 – TEVA, VAC and USO

TEVA/Pat – They lost $18.5Bn in 2017 and 2018 and this year maybe they make $3.5Bn and you can buy the whole company for $8Bn at $7.50 so worth a gamble but I think I'd play just a bull call spread like the 2022 $4 ($4.50)/$10 ($2.35) bull call spread at $2.15 as that pays almost 200% at $10 so why takes risks to be greedy?

Sometimes a trade idea from Member Chat is so good I just post it right to the Top Trades.  TEVA had a heck of a ride but it summarizes to "on track" at the moment.  The $4/10 spread is net $475 ($4,750) for a $2,600 profit but the potential is $6,000 so still good to hold.  

For our Long-Term Portfolio:

  • Sell 5 VAC October $30 puts for $8 ($4,000) 
  • Buy 10 VAC Nov $40 calls for $18 ($18,000)
  • Sell 10 VAC Nov $75 calls for $8 ($8,000) 

That's net $6,000 on the $35,000 spread that's $8,000 in the money to start so the upside potential at $75 is $29,000 (483%) and your worst case is being assigned 500 shares of VAC at $30 ($15,000) plus the $6,000 spent on the spread would be $21,000 or $42 per share – still 15% below the current price.  That's your WORST CASE!  

That closed at the full $35,000 for a $29,000 profit.

Oil/Tangled – Though it decays, USO is a reasonable way to play oil and the Jan $2 ($3.10)/$5 ($1.25) bull call spread is $1.85 and you can sell 5 VLO 2022 $25 puts for $7 ($3,500) to pay for 20 of the spreads ($3,700) for net $200 on the $6,000 spread so $5,800 (2,900%) upside potential and VLO is a vital industry and that still gives you 30% downside protection.

USO reverse split 1 for 8 on April 29th so 20 $2/5 spreads became 2.5 $16/40 spreads and USO was back over $55 in Jan so the full $6,000 and the VLO puts will go worthless for a net $5,800 profit.

Three in one day!  We were also buying like crazy for all our Member Portfolios, things were too cheap to pass up.  As I said above, there are times to buy and times not to buy.  We bought nothing in early Feb but jumped right back in in March, once the market stopped falling.

Top Trades for Fri, 27 Mar 2020 12:45 – T

Hedge Fund/Tangled – If we have enough interest, of course people can switch but the regular hedge fund is very likely to double up or better if we recover – I'm proposing a more conservative fund for people like me, who are having to help their parents whose monthly incomes no longer cover expenses from their standard retirement accounts.  It's a lot easier for me to put $250,000 into the following spread than give my Mom $30,000 a year to subsidize her expenses:

  • Buy 500 T 2022 $23 calls for $7.75 ($387,500) 
  • Sell 500 T 2022 $30 calls at $3.60 ($180,000) 
  • Sell 100 T 2022 $23 puts for $3 ($30,000) 
  • Sell 100 T June $30 puts for $2.30 ($23,000) 
  • Sell 50 T June $23 puts for $1 ($5,000) 

So that's net $149,500 out of pocket and my worst case is owning 10,000 shares of T for $23 ($230,000 – not counting the short-term puts) and I've got a $350,000 spread that's spitting out $28,000 in "dividends" for the Q so it should well cover the $7,500 my Mom needs while still a lovely investment for me that will hopefully pay 200% in 2 years.  

This one is at the money and it's complicated so I'll set out the current balances.  T was at $30.69 on June 19th so the puts expired worthless:

  • 500 T 2022 $23 calls are now $5.85 ($292,500) 
  • 500 short T 2022 $30 calls are now 0.95 ($47,500) 
  • 100 short T 2022 $23 puts for 0.50 ($5,000) 

That's net $240,000 for a net $90,500 profit so far and another $52,500 coming if T can hold $30 into this January.  As I said, this is a brilliant retirement strategy for people looking to make a good income off their holdings.  

So that's another 10 trade ideas in February and March for another $223,587 in profits so far.  No losers in Feb/Mar so we're 14 for 15 (93.3%) winners for the quarter for a total of $271,087 in profits on our trade ideas to date.  Notice we were playing cautiously into the dip as we were worried early on about the virus – hedging as of Feb 12th – but then we called the bottom and made much more aggressive trades on the way up.  

We'll do more reviews and see how the rest of 2020 played out and, of course, we look for new Top Trade Ideas every day at PSW – come join us in our Live Member Chat Room!  


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Good morning! 

    Oil still hovering around $73.  I said I wanted to see $75 around July 4th so we can short it but not ahead of the holiday weekend. 

        

    Don't forget, the clue we had that got me shorting last week was that Gasoline (/RB) wasn't following Oil (/CL) up.  Now the whole energy group is in sync.  

    Indexes just zig-zagging but VIX says "what volatility"?  It's like the Fed saying "what inflation"?

       

    Dollar dipped a bit:

    Not helping gold or silver but Copper is flying:

       

  3. NLY/ Phil – Good morning. For our position of 2000 shares and sold 7 2023 $7 calls, why did we cover just 1/3 of our position with NLY nearing pre-pandemic level and interest rates slated to go up?  It's very different than our AIV, TWO positions where we sold equal put/call pairs?  


  4. NLY/Jeddah – It was:  

    • NLY – Let's sell 10 (1/2) 2023 7 calls for $2.

    So, not 7 calls but 10 is a 1/2 cover and that's because, while I do feel NLY is undervalued, I still want protection in case the market crashes and we can easily roll the 2023 $7 calls, now $2.15, to 20 of the $10 calls when they get to $1 but maybe the 2024 $12 calls or something so we have flexibility and protection.  Why would I not want that?   If NLY breaks below $8.50, the calls should still be $1.50 and we could sell 10 more to fully cover (and lower our basis) but, on the whole, I'd rather wait PATIENTLY and sell the $10 calls for $1+


  5. ROKU, ROKU ROKU. 

    i grabbed 5 x 2023 $300/$400 spreads when it dipped below $290 in may. (paid $20) already at target i just wish there wasn't another 18 months for all kinds of things to happen.   Whats the play when you're at target way ahead of schedule but the premium on your short calls is ruining the party?




  6. Powell says economy growing rapidly, inflation up ‘notably’


  7. Hottest seller at GameStop is its own stock, $1B raised


  8. ROKU x 3/Monk – You're at target but the spread is still only $155/107 so net $48 still has 100% left to gain.  Not much you can do about that since it's a premium play and it simply takes time for it to wind down.  I would sell 2 Oct $450 calls at $31 ($6,200) while I wait but you are more bullish and your heart would not be in it – which makes it a dangerous short sale.  

    • The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) +0.5% is leading the major averages with megacap stocks mostly higher, led by Amazon, and rates edging back.
    • The S&P (SP500) +0.3% is also slightly higher, while the Dow (DJI) is still little changed. Home Depot is up solidly, while Boeing is down.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is off 1 basis point to 1.48% with Fed chief Jay Powell speaking to a House subcommittee later on.
    • Nine of the 11 S&P sectors are higher, led by Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY). That's followed by Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) and Info Tech (NYSEARCA:XLK).
    • In the crypto space, Bitcoin's volatile day continues. After tumbling below the psychologically important $30K level, Bitcoin is now in positive territory.
    • Among active stocks, cruise lines are under pressure as concerns about the COVID delta variant persist.
    • L Brands is the top gainer in the S&P after Deutsche Bank said the company took another important step to unlocking value.
    • Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) +1.7% deal to acquire MGM (OTC:MGMB) will be reviewed by the Federal Trade Commission, which is under new leadership, The Wall Street Journal reports.
    • The $8.45B deal was announced late last month and would bring a host of content, including the James Bond franchise, under Amazon's umbrella.
    • Lina Khan was named the chair of the FTC after her appointment last week and she is known as a sharp critic of Big Tech.
    • As a Yale student in 2017, her Yale Law Review article "Amazon's Antitrust Paradox" argued for a new framework to evaluate competitive harm in antitrust, not on consumer welfare alone but also on predatory pricing and the dangers of a company both owning and selling on a marketplace.
    • The FTC negotiated with the Justice Department to review this deal given its already-wide-ranging antitrust review of Amazon, the Journal reports, citing people familiar with the situation.
    • MGM is a smaller studio, whose purchase may not have raised red flags under normal circumstances, the paper says.
    • Seeking Alpha contributor Trading Places Research says the deal won't have much on an impact on Amazon overall, but helps to grow the Prime ecosystem.
    • Plunging below $29K earlier in the session, bitcoin (BTC-USD) has bounced back above $32.4K and is now modestly positive for the day. Pretty much the entirely of the rest of the cryptocurrency market remains in the red, but well off session lows. Ether (ETH-USD) is now off just 0.25%. Even with the big reversal, bitcoin is down nearly 25% from week-ago levels, and of course down more than 50% from its all-time high of about $65K.
    • As reported earlier, Beijing really seems to mean it this time with its crackdown on Bitcoin. "Miners are leaving China for good," writes Nic Carter in a piece for Coindesk. "All signals seem to be indicating the greatest shakeup in the geographic makeup of bitcoin mining since the start of the industrial mining era."
    • In the short-term, writes Carter, there are many questions to be answered, but long-term, this is a good thing. "Whether it’s the U.S. or other locales that grow their market share at the expense of China, it will be a significant win for bitcoin’s decentralization, the stability of mining and bitcoin’s climate impact. At long last, bitcoin’s vulnerability to China and the CCP is melting away."
    • This week's Alpha Trader podcast discussed China's move against Bitcoin, and came to a similar conclusion to Carter's.
    • Thomas Lee, managing partner and the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said Tuesday that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could potentially touch $100,000 this year, or even go higher.
    • In an interview with CNBC, the closely watched investor said that the recent drop in Bitcoin price represented "noise" and "a great buying opportunity."
    • Lee, an outspoken Bitcoin bull, acknowledged that Bitcoin has suffered a few headline-related hits lately, especially mining bans in China and regulatory scrutiny in the U.S.
    • However, he said that Bitcoin could easily bounce back, noting that the cryptocurrency typically makes most of its gains during 10 trading days in a year.
    • Longer-term, Lee argued that the Chinese mining bans could prove to be a positive event for the crypto. He said that diversifying mining operations out of China will be a good development over time.
    • Lee also said that given the recent headlines, Bitcoin has held up well compared to historical patterns. He noted that a previous wave of news like the one seen in the last few weeks would have previously sent Bitcoin into a "crypto winter."
    • With the crypto only 50% off its highs, Lee said that it was "pretty impressive" it wasn't down more.
    • Comparing Bitcoin to oil, Lee stated that crude might have more near-term catalysts but cryptocurrencies had a larger potential for long-term returns.
    • "It would be hard to find another generational story outside of digital assets," he said.
    • For a different take on Bitcoin's future, check out SA contributor Clem Chambers, who believes the market has entered the next leg of a crypto crash

    • Japanese automaker, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) will adjust production at several factories next month due to the global chip shortage - Reuters.
    • The company will halt production at a factory in Tochigi, eastern Japan for three days and idle its plant in Kyushu, southern Japan for two days in July, as per the sources.
    • Oppama plant, located in Kanagawa, has been adjusting production since mid-May by operating without a night shift and will continue to do so in July.
    • The automaker has said the shortage of chip will impact the production of 500K vehicles this year.
    • Earlier this month, the automaker announced termination of new sedan development in Japan, with a view to channel more investment into SUVs and electric vehicles.

  9. do you think mr biden will say anything that will pop this market higher phil


  10. Biden/Tommy – He's just talking about vaccines so I doubt much will be market moving.  Speaking of vaccines:

    More than 90 countries are using Covid shots from China. Experts say recent infections in those places should serve as a cautionary tale in the global effort to fight the disease.

    China kicked off its vaccine diplomacy campaign last year by pledging to provide a shot that would be safe and effective at preventing severe cases of Covid-19. Less certain at the time was how successful it and other vaccines would be at curbing transmission.

    Now, examples from several countries suggest that the Chinese vaccines may not be very effective at preventing the spread of the virus, particularly the new variants. The experiences of those countries lay bare a harsh reality facing a post-pandemic world: The degree of recovery may depend on which vaccines governments give to their people.

    In the Seychelles, Chile, Bahrain and Mongolia, 50 to 68 percent of the populations have been fully inoculated, outpacing the United States, according to Our World In Data, a data tracking project. All four ranked among the top 10 countries with the worst Covid outbreaks as recently as last week, according to data from The New York Times. And all four are mostly using shots made by two Chinese vaccine makers, Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech.

    “If the vaccines are sufficiently good, we should not see this pattern,” said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. “The Chinese have a responsibility to remedy this.”

    The made the virus, you would think they could come up with a better vaccine…  cheeky


  11. Phil// Question on NLY – With the Fed indicating a hike in interest rate, isn't that good for NLY?  If so why is NLY dropped recently?  Thanks.


  12. Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know

    Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know

    That pretty much sums it up.  People are idiots and all these analysts try to explain things that can't easily be explained.  Stocks go in and out of favor for various reasons and not many of them are good ones.  Some people think lower rates are bad for REITs – you think they are good.  I think it depends on how the company is set up internally, what their loan profiles look like and how well the management knows how to navigate the choppy waters (which is why I love NLY/CIM) but that's too much work for most investors so they cast their bones looking for answers on every market gyration.  

    In NLY's case, they ran up from $8.50 to $9.50 for no particular reason but you didn't mind that until they pulled back to $9.10, which is a strong retrace (40% of the run) from $9.50 and held up nicely.  NOW you want to know WHY would such a tragedy occur – WHAT is wrong with these people?  Nothing, it's just the way things go….

    "And if you say something that you might even mean

    It's hard to even fathom which parts I should believe

    I've got a hundred million reasons to walk away

    But, baby, I just need one good one, good one"

    Tell me that you'll be the good one, good one

    Baby, I just need one good one to stay


  13. Good morning, everyone. Here is the link to today's webinar.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5580017528775117581