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15,000 Friday – Nasdaq Back to Record Highs

Here we are again.

It's been quite a run for the Nasdaq – up 50% since last July and it only took $8Tn (40% of our GDP) in stimulus spending to get there.  9,736 was our pre-Covid high so all this hoopla is over and above where we were.  In fact, in 2019, the Nasdaq was generally at 7,500, so we're up 100% in two years – yay!

The current PE for the Nasdaq is 38.37 times earnings.  The S&P 500 is at 36.6 so just as crazy and the P/E for the Russell 2,000 has now broken the meter at the Wall Street Journal – having passed 100 times earnings.  Of course everyone ESTIMATES they will do better in the next 12 months and the last 12 momths were pretty bad but even the forward estimates of the Nasdaq peg them at 27.43 times forward earnings while the Russell is at 33.81 times earnings.

Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting  stocks are long overdue for a breatherThat's a very long time to wait for payback on your investment.  In December, 2018, the PE ratio of the Nasdaq was 20.34 so going from 7,500 to 15,000 over the past 2 years has NOTHING to do with earnings growth and everything to do with price inflation.  You are simply paying twice as much money for each Dollar of earnings.  That is Fundamentally unsound as it's very unlikely to continue over the long-run but, in the short run – anything can happen.

Corrections can come hard and fast when the market is in a bubble so please be aware that this is NOT normal – even as "not normal" continues to be the norm.  We are back to Dot Com and 2008-high levels of valuation and, if you remember, people were partying until the very last minute then as well.  I have to call the Nasdaq a good short here on the /NQ Futures.  Below the 15,000 line with tight stops above would be the way to play.   

In our Short-Term Portfolio, which we reviewed last week, we're going to take advantage of this Nasdaq high to roll our 200 SQQQ Jan $10 calls at $1.25 to 200 2023 $5 ($4)/20 ($1.70) bull call spreads at net $2.30 so we are spending about $1 ($20,000) to move $60,000 into the money and buying another year of protection.

We are 1/4 of the way through Q2 earnings and nothing has blown up yet, so that's nice.  Next week and the week after are the big ones and we'll try to see if there's any way to justify the kind of valuations we're seeing but, outside of expecting more and more free money from the Government – I'm just not seeing the justification so far.  

"Just a song before I go

To whom it may concern

Traveling twice the speed of sound


It's easy to get burned"CSN

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. CHL : Ally sold my CHL ADRs at 30.50 yesterday on best efforts basis.  When I placed the order over the phone, I was told it will incur commission of $50, but I don't see that on the activity page.


  2. What will happen to the outstanding CHL options?  Short some puts, but have not heard anything on them. 


  3. Good Morning.



  4. Phil / INTC – analyst rather cool on earnings….  They have an analyst meeting on 7/26…. may be a spark after – think they will talk about 7nM and foundry plans

     Intel stock lower as margin pressure, chip shortage outweigh strong earnings • 9:28 AM

     

    Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported strong second-quarter results yesterday driven by upside in the data center group but margins continued to degrade, says Citi in a note lowering the company's price target from $60 to $57.

    Analyst Christopher Danely, maintaining a Neutral rating, highlights the data center group's recovery to represent 35% of overall second-quarter revenue. Gross margin also topped estimates at 59.2%.

    Intel's third-quarter gross margin guidance of 55% came in lower than the 55.8% consensus due to higher costs.

    While Intel raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance, Danely the increase was driven by the second-quarter strength and a lower tax rate. With the lower tax, the guidance would be below consensus estimates.

    Citi lowers its calendar year 2022 EPS estimate for Intel from $4.66 to $4.21 due to margin pressure. The 2021 revenue and EPS forecasts are raised from $71.6B/$4.49 to $73.1B/$4.74 off the Q2 strength.

    Separately, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers (Neutral rating) lifts Intel's target from $60 to $70, saying investors will likely question the gross margin trajectory into next year.

    Roth analyst Suji Desilva sticks to a Neutral rating and raises the price target from $60 to $65, expecting the semiconductor supply constraints to soften demand momentum through the second half of the year.

    Intel shares are down 2.8% pre-market to $54.41.

    During the earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said he expects the global chip shortage to continue for one to two more years.




  5. CHL/Bai – $30 would get us out of our options with a profit but we can't even convert them.  Good thing you had the actual stock.

    CHL/Seer – At the moment, we're screwed.  On the bright side, the short puts go worthless too so just losing the net of the spread.  

    Tough/1020 – Friggin' Florida!   We also have a ton of accidents as people over 80 think they are excellent drivers – even right after taking the meds that say "Do not operate heavy machinery".  

    Uber driver GIFs - Get the best gif on GIFER

    INTC/Batman – As I said last night, our target was $50, not $55 or higher so no worries.  Still love them for the long haul.  

    Well, that was a quick up and down $1,000 on the /NQ shorts.   On the other hand – it's a chance to short again at 15,000!  

    I'm off to Orlando after lunch – will be there next week.


  6. CHL, et.al. – received this from IB this morning:

    REMINDER: Sanctions Related to Certain Chinese Securities

     

    Dear Client,

     

    This message is a reminder based on our earlier communication.

     

    As you may recall, the US government issued sanctions on the trading of securities of Communist Chinese Military Companies (“CCMCs”) that went into effect starting in January 2021. Based on these sanctions, IBKR restricted US clients from opening new positions in CCMC Securities. In addition, the NYSE, DTCC and OCC limited the ability of all clients to close positions in CCMC Securities listed on US exchanges.

     

    The sanctions on the CCMC Securities have been removed and are no longer in effect. As a result, IBKR has lifted all trading restrictions on CCMC Securities. Please note that IBKR can only lift its own restrictions. Should the OCC, DTCC or the exchange not allow trading in CCMC Securities, IBKR would not be able to allow clients to trade these products either.

     

    The US government replaced the CCMC sanctions with a new set of sanctions, this time on Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (“CMICs”), many of which were previously identified as CCMCs. These new sanctions on CMIC Securities will take effect on August 2, 2021, at which time US persons are prohibited from opening any new positions in CMIC Securities. The sanctions allow US persons to close existing positions through June 2, 2022. The new sanctions do not limit the ability of non-US persons to trade these CMIC Securities

     

    Here is a summary of the key dates under the new sanctions:

    August 2, 2021: US persons can purchase and sell CMIC Securities until August 2, 2021. As of August 2, 2021, US persons cannot open new positions (long or short) in CMIC Securities. They may sell existing long positions or buy to close a short position.

    June 2, 2022: US persons can close out existing positions in CMIC Securities through June 2, 2022.

    June 3, 2022: As of June 3, 2022, no US person will be permitted to purchase or sell CMIC Securities, even to close an existing position.

    Here is the current list of CMIC companies whose securities are affected by these new sanctions:

     

    NAME OF COMPANY
     

    EFFECTIVE DATE

    AERO ENGINE CORPORATION OF CHINA

    8/2/2021

    AEROSPACE CH UAV CO., LTD

    8/2/2021

    AEROSPACE COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS GROUP COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    AEROSUN CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    ANHUI GREATWALL MILITARY INDUSTRY COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    AVIATION INDUSTRY CORPORATION OF CHINA, LTD.

    8/2/2021

    AVIC AVIATION HIGH-TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    AVIC HEAVY MACHINERY COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    AVIC JONHON OPTRONIC TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    AVIC SHENYANG AIRCRAFT COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    AVIC XI'AN AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY GROUP COMPANY LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CHANGSHA JINGJIA MICROELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA ACADEMY OF LAUNCH VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY

    8/2/2021

    CHINA AEROSPACE SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA AEROSPACE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA AEROSPACE TIMES ELECTRONICS CO., LTD

    8/2/2021

    CHINA AVIONICS SYSTEMS COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION GROUP (LIMITED)

    8/2/2021

    CHINA ELECTRONICS CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY GROUP CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA GENERAL NUCLEAR POWER CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA MARINE INFORMATION ELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CHINA MOBILE LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA NATIONAL NUCLEAR CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA NATIONAL OFFSHORE OIL CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA NORTH INDUSTRIES GROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA NUCLEAR ENGINEERING CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CHINA SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY GROUP POWER COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA SOUTH INDUSTRIES GROUP CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA SPACESAT CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CHINA STATE SHIPBUILDING CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA TELECOM CORPORATION LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    CHINA UNICOM (HONG KONG) LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    CHINA UNITED NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CNOOC LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    COSTAR GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    CSSC OFFSHORE & MARINE ENGINEERING (GROUP) COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    FUJIAN TORCH ELECTRON TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    GUIZHOU SPACE APPLIANCE CO., LTD

    8/2/2021

    HANGZHOU HIKVISION DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    HUAWEI INVESTMENT & HOLDING CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    INNER MONGOLIA FIRST MACHINERY GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    INSPUR GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    JIANGXI HONGDU AVIATION INDUSTRY CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    NANJING PANDA ELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    NORTH NAVIGATION CONTROL TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    PANDA ELECTRONICS GROUP CO., LTD.

    8/2/2021

    PROVEN GLORY CAPITAL LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    PROVEN HONOUR CAPITAL LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION

    8/2/2021

    SHAANXI ZHONGTIAN ROCKET TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

    ZHONGHANG ELECTRONIC MEASURING INSTRUMENTS COMPANY LIMITED

    8/2/2021

     

    Please visit the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (“OFAC”) website for additional information related to the new sanctions (Executive Order 14032).

     

    As you are likely aware, non-compliance with OFAC sanctions can bring both civil and criminal penalties, and we appreciate your cooperation with IBKR in this matter.
     

    Interactive Brokers



  7. Pstas/CHL- Thanks.  So if you already hold the stock you can still sell it after Aug 2?  Clear as mud.  


  8. Phil – Be safe in Orlando. The variant has Vegas in a hot mess!


  9. CHL/Seer/Pstas – Sell it to who?


  10. The Bug – Vegas, and Branson is doing a repeat of the Sturgis outbreak last year. People go there for fun, get The Bug, go home, get sick and pass The Bug around locally.


    • Online ad stocks are breaking higher again as strong earnings from Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Snap (NYSE:SNAP) show broad-based strength in daily active users, blowing past the consensus marks.
    • Leading gainers include: Pinterest (PINS +2.3%), Facebook (FB +2.8%), Alphabet (GOOG +1.5%), Magnite (MGNI +2.5%).
    • Snap (SNAP) is up 24% at the market open today after showing off growth in revenue and daily active users at the highest rates in the past four years.
    • In addition, Facebook rallies on bullish sentiments coming in from a new Street-high price target from Credit Suisse ahead of its earnings. The firm believes Street is too conservative on the company, and it underestimates "the long-term monetization potential of other billion-user properties like Messenger and WhatsApp.”
    • The sector is currently seeing post-COVID recovery with innovation and better ad targeting sending daily active users to shoot up globally.
    • Speaking to CNBC, Twitter (TWTR) CFO Ned Segal said Friday that strong economic growth and ad targeting drove its recent earnings results, adding the idea that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could become a go-to currency for cross-border transactions.
    • Overall, the Communication Services (NYSEARCA:XLC) sector is picking up some momentum, having survived a recent test of its 50-day simple moving average.

    SNAP is up 22% to $96Bn with less than $4Bn in revenues and losing $600M (annualized).  It is better than the $1Bn they lost last year, I guess…

    So 40% of their users are in the US and 80% of their users are under 35 which means they have saturated the US market.  RoW has more people but we already know from Twitter and FB that no one generates revenue like US users.  India gives them numbers but not the revenues and that's another 25% of their total base.  The App is a non-starter in Asia and UK total population and France around 60M so there too, they are saturated.  Where is the growth supposed to come from to justify this thing?   

    TWTR is way more mature with $5Bn in revenues, $675M in profit (lost $1Bn last year) so it's more likely SNAP is peaking here and will go forward at more than 100x earnings – even if you give them a few years.  Ridiculous.  TWTR, by the way, $55Bn and that's too expensive too.  SNAP is just crazy!  

    Bug/Snow – I'll be curious to see what kind of security Disney, Universal and Sea World have.  I would not take my kids if they were not vaccinated.  Even so, I don't plan to do the parks other than dinner at night – I'm not getting in those long, winding lines with hundreds of people in enclosed spaces!    


  11. good morning


  12. first trip for 17 months. sydney to hong kong. cathay had only 12 in business class out of 70,seats. has a covid test on arrival and waiting results before quarantine for 7 nights.


  13. Phil/CHL – Sorry, I converted the ADRs to the HK shares (941:HK).  Wonder if these will slip through the cracks.


  14. Anti-vaxxer blame – it looks like the media are going with the "anit-vaxxers are idiots and we should blame them for this situation" story. This I find disingenuous for a couple of reasons.

    First, while the media like anecdotal stories of anti-vaxxers who believe Q-anon, I suspect (needs confirmation with research) that many people aren't getting vaxxed because they worry about cost, don't have insurance or have crappy insurance. This would not be a problem with medicare for all.

    Second, any public health program that relies solely on one or two interventions that require individual effort will fail. We need a structural epidemic prevention program that includes things like paid sick leave, medicare for all, a decent surveillance system – it's not that difficult, most countries are already doing it. Instead we thought masks would stop or slow down the epidemic – then blamed anti-maskers when it didn't. Then we thought vaccines would stop or slow the epidemic – and are blaming anti-vaxxers when it doesn't.


  15. seer,  I sold my CHL  941:HK shares last night.  Received $6.48. but I only had 1000 shares , a tiny position for me.  Schwab charged $100 and my loss was about $150 for the whole position.  BTW, the Schwab agent told me the next dividend was scheduled ( ex date I think) August 26 for .20


  16. Quarantine/Stuart – That sucks.  Keeps me from going on those kind of trips.

    CHL/Seer – I just think there's too much unknown risk at the moment.

    • July U.S. PMI Composite Flash:  59.7  vs. 63.9 prior.
    • Manufacturing PMI: 63.1 vs. 62.1 consensus and 62.6 prior
    • Services PMI: 59.8 vs. 64.6 consensus and 64.8 prior.

    Would be worrying if the market paid any attention to actual data.

    • Alphabet is higher out of the open (GOOG +1.4%GOOGL +1.4%) with Facebook and Snap setting a bright tone for online platforms in earnings season, as well as a new Street-high price target from Credit Suisse.
    • Earnings for the company are coming up on Tuesday. And the post-pandemic ad recovery in digital ads is set to bring bright spots to the report.
    • "Nearly all advertising sectors are on pace to exceed our expectations" in Q2, and Google Search and YouTube are expected to be strong, the bank says.
    • In earnings, Alphabet is expected to post EPS of $19.14 on revenues of $56.04B.
    • Credit Suisse's new Street-high target of $3,350 on GOOGL (up from $2,755) implies 29% upside.
    • Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported strong second-quarter results yesterday driven by upside in the data center group but margins continued to degrade, says Citi in a note lowering the company's price target from $60 to $57.
    • Analyst Christopher Danely, maintaining a Neutral rating, highlights the data center group's recovery to represent 35% of overall second-quarter revenue. Gross margin also topped estimates at 59.2%.
    • Intel's third-quarter gross margin guidance of 55% came in lower than the 55.8% consensus due to higher costs.
    • While Intel raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance, Danely said the increase was driven by the second-quarter strength and a lower tax rate. With the lower tax, the guidance would be below consensus estimates.
    • Citi lowers its calendar year 2022 EPS estimate for Intel from $4.66 to $4.21 due to margin pressure. The 2021 revenue and EPS forecasts are raised from $71.6B/$4.49 to $73.1B/$4.74 off the Q2 strength.
    • Separately, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers (Neutral rating) lifts Intel's target from $60 to $70, saying investors will likely question the gross margin trajectory into next year.
    • Roth analyst Suji Desilva sticks to a Neutral rating and raises the price target from $60 to $65, expecting the semiconductor supply constraints to soften demand momentum through the second half of the year.
    • Intel shares are down 2.8% pre-market to $54.41.
    • During the earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said he expects the global chip shortage to continue for one to two more years.
    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is up 2.6% premarket alongside a new Street-high price target from Credit Suisse ahead of its earnings – and following some strong early reports from Twitter and Snap.
    • The firm expects Facebook to benefit in the clear online ad recovery along with its development of new products and services, analyst Stephen Ju writes.
    • Those products can be a growth driver in the long term as they're targeted not just toward big merchants but smaller retailers as well, which expands the market.
    • The Street is too conservative on the company, and it underestimates "the long-term monetization potential of other billion-user properties like Messenger and WhatsApp.”
    • The firm has raised its target to $480, implying a solid 37% upside from current pricing.
    • Wall Street is Bullish, as are Seeking Alpha authors, but the stock has a Quant Rating of Very Bullish

    The trick is not to actually make anything.  

    Vaccines/Snow – In the US, they are free for all.  Not sure any countries make people pay to be vaccinated for Covid.  Yes, it would be good if we had better prevention programs.  Other countries have a habit of going to the Doctor US people don't have since cost is a factor – as well as "not having time to be sick" so people tend to keep working and ignoring things until it kills them.  


  17. Snow – Unfortunately, we are getting deep in the sh*t with Fall around the corner, due almost entirely on those who have not gotten the shot and we, who have had the shot, are tired of the crap we have to go thru to get back to normal.  :(


  18. It's too damn easy to get the shot!


  19. 1020/shots – yes, easy and free – but there are a lot of people who don't understand or trust the medical system or are just uninformed/misinformed. Follow an outlet like Nextdoor, and you'll see some amazing stuff, besides the typical "there's a young man with dark skin in our neighborhood, he must be a criminal".


  20. Snow/Understand/Trust   I get it, their choice, and their funeral expense. I have no sympathy for the uninformed/misinformed. They have the same smart phone and the same World Wide Web as the rest of us, not to mention the good work by many people getting the word out. How about a little responsibility for ourselves?


  21. Hi Phil!

    Long time! I have missed your wisdom! Been away and just saw this trade we did a few months ago. I don't know if I missed a roll or not.

    The long calls did not paste as expected but were same number of contracts as the short calls for $1.4, now worth $0.6

    Anything to do yet or is it a lost one?

    WTRH230120C2CALL (WTRH) WAITR HLDGS INC COM JAN 20 23 $2 (100 SHS)

    $0.600-$0.05

    -$500.00

    -7.69%

    -$7,898.98-56.83%

    $6,000.00

    100
    (Margin)

    $1.39/Share

    $13,898.98

     

    -WTRH230120C4CALL (WTRH) WAITR HLDGS INC COM JAN 20 23 $4 (100 SHS)

    $0.450+$0.15

    -$1,500.00

     

    -50.00%

    +$4,300.96+48.87%

    -$4,500.00

    -100
    (Margin)

    $0.88/Share

    -WTRH230120P2.5PUT (WTRH) WAITR HLDGS INC COM JAN 20 23 $2.5 (100 SHS)

    $1.400$0.00

    $0.00

     

    0.00%

    -$1,374.52-24.43%

    -$7,000.00

    -50
    (Margin)

    $1.13/Share

    $5,625.


  22. That did not paste well at all.

    WTRH we did the 2023 $2/4 call spread for $1.4/$0.88, now $0.6/0.45- 100 contracts

    we also sold 50 of the 2023 $2.5 puts for $1.15, now $1.4


  23. The transition is hardly noticeable yet on showroom floors, but industry resources have shifted rapidly. “We’re trying to make things change pretty quickly,” said a GM software expert.620 Long read

    The company is asking owners of 2017-19 model year Bolts to keep their electric-vehicle charges at a certain level and to park the cars outside after charging them. 4 min read

    State and local governments are struggling to distribute $47 billion in federal money aimed at helping tenants who can’t pay rent because of the Covid-19 crisis.109 5 min read

    Prices are at highs, lifted by wagers that coronavirus disruptions in Southeast Asia will fuel shortages of the industrial metal.


  24. Phil// we had stock of the year INTC 2023 $45/55 bull call spread with $45 put sold.  Do we leave that trade as is or time to make any adjustments 

    Thanks 


  25. Up and up the Nasdaq goes.  Dow 35,000 back in sight too.  

    WTRH/Maya – In last week's review I said:  

    WTRH – Relentless selling but I think they will be one of the major delivery players and, if so, they will start getting valuations like their peers.  Zachs doesn't like them and that's been deadly this month.  Still, it's Stocks of the Future – not Stocks of the Moment – so we'll wait a bit

    It looks like you have the same $2/4 spread as we do in the Future is Now Portfolio but you wimped out and sold the $2.50 puts instead of the $3.50 puts.  The official position looks like this:

    WTRH Long Call 2023 20-JAN 2.00 CALL [WTRH @ $1.65 $0.00] 50 4/22/2021 (546) $7,500 $1.50 $-0.88 $1.50     $0.63 $-0.03 $-4,375 -58.3% $3,125
    WTRH Short Call 2023 20-JAN 4.00 CALL [WTRH @ $1.65 $0.00] -50 4/22/2021 (546) $-5,000 $1.00 $-0.65     $0.35 $0.05 $3,250 65.0% $-1,750
    WTRH Short Put 2023 20-JAN 3.50 PUT [WTRH @ $1.65 $0.00] -20 4/22/2021 (546) $-4,000 $2.00 $0.08     $2.08 - $-150 -3.8% $-4,150

    I don't know why you thought it would be better to sell 50 puts @ $2.50 strike, which obligates you for $10,250 (net $4,600) vs 20 at $3.50, which obligates you for $7,000 (net $3,000) but that's your call.  Unfortunately, the $2.50 puts are up more than the $3.50 puts and your loss is magnified 2.5x since you sold 50 and not 20.  Other than that, the net change on the $10,000 potential spread is $1,125 and we bought the whole thing for a credit so anything over $2.50 is a winner and WTRH is at $1.65 with 18 months to go.

    We bought the stock on April 22nd and now it's 3 months later and earnings are in 2 weeks so what is it we should be doing after 1 out of 7 quarters is just barely passing?  Is there some news I missed?  Did something fundamentally change?  What should we do????

    Me – I'm going to Disney World!  

    Have a great weekend everyone, 

    - Phil

    INTC/Rookie – That's right, we were more aggressive in the Earnings Portfolio.  At $52.50 and 18 months to go – as above, I can't imagine what you want to do with it?   Hopefully it goes lower and you can roll the $45 calls to the $35 calls for less than $5 – THAT's an adjustment I could get behind! 


  26. Disney/Phil – Phil could you do me a favor? I'd like to hear how Disney World looks for disease control. I don't know if you all heard about it, but Disney got a lot of bad publicity from the 2016 "Disney measles outbreak" in southern Cal, and supposedly they really upped their infection control game. The R0 for measles is much higher than for SARS-Cov-2, so they should be pretty good if they have a measles prevention program in place.


  27. CHL sold my CHL through fidelity yday for 6.43 for Hong Konk  converted shares 82.00 fee and 1% currency conversion charge  made about 200 with the dividend  on 200 us / 1000 hk shares


  28. Good morning! 

    Well I'm back now and, Snow, I'd love to tell you Disney is doing a bang-up job but really, how could they?  You walk into various rooms or caves with hundreds of people that thousands more people have recently been in and there's almost always a rail that is touched by most.  DIS has put up a lot of plastic walls to separate the lines as they wind around but they reach maybe 7 feet at most. 

    As of Thursday, masks are once again required indoors but not in the crowded restaurants (no distancing) and I do not see people wiping down the bars on the rides – so why bother at all if you're not going to do that?