Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

$10,000,000,000,000 Tuesday – 6 Stocks are 25% of the Market

$10Tn!

That's the market cap of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) and TSLA these days.  Not only is that 25% of the S&P 500s market cap, it's closer to 1/3 of their earnings and, over at the Nasdaq, the Big 6 make up over 50% of that indexe's market cap (this chart was from earlier in the year, when they were still a bargain 49%).

AAPL, GOOGL and MSFT report today, FB tomorrow and AMZN reports on Thursday.  A slip from any of them could be a disaster.   TSLA reported last night and made $1Bn for the quarter which, if they can do that consistently, means their $640Bn market cap is only 160 times their earnings so, Yay!, I guess…

FB should do well judging from SNAP and TWTR's results.  AAPL is a monster you don't bet against and the others are pretty much cloud companies at this point – each with a different specialty core that gives them a user base of pretty much everyone on the planet (Software, Search and Stuff).   If we are heading into that Dystopian Future where a few dozen corporations control every aspect of life on this planet – it makes perfect sense that, at some point, 6 companies should be worth 1/3 as much as the other 12,000.  That's just a natural progression.

Consider the entire Nasdaq is $20Tn and it was $11.2Tn 2 years ago so it's gained $8.8Tn in market cap.  TSLA (left off because it broke the chart) was at $50Bn 2 years ago and is now at $640Bn so $590Bn of the Nasdaq's gain (6.7%) came from that one stock.  AAPL gained $1.6Tn (20%), MSFT gained $1.1Tn (12.5%), GOOGL gained $1Tn (11.4%), FB gained $500Bn (5.6%) and AMZN gained $900Bn (10.3%).

So our Big 6 companies gained $5.7Tn, accounting for 51% of the Nasdaq's total gain in price but NONE of those companies, except TSLA, have grown either earnings or revenues over 100% to justify the move.  Even AAPL, as great as they are, are "only" on track for $86Bn in profits on $355Bn in sales while in 2019, they made $55Bn on $260Bn in sales.  Yet in 2019, you could buy AAPL for $65/share – now it's $150! 

Clearly the market is distorted and that makes it very dangerous to play.  Also keep in mind that AAPL sales, which are becoming a significant part of the economy, get counted twice in our GDP as AAPL considers it a sale but so do Best Buy (BBY), AT&T (T) or Amazon (AMZN) when they sell you an Apple product.  This is why countries like to manufacture things at home – they get to double up their GDP!   Or at least the appearance of it…

I'LL GLADLY PAY YOU TUESDAY FOR A HAMBURGER TODAYOur GDP Report comes out on Thursday – stay tuned for that!  Meanwhile, it's only Tuesday in our Hamburger Today Economy and first we hear from the Fed (tomorrow) and we'll see if they care about the runaway inflation that is choking the bottom 80% of this country.  

We have some good data this morning with Durable Goods out at 8:30, Redbook at 8:55, Case-Shiller at 9 followed by Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed at 10.  We were down a bit early this morning but recoving in the pre-market (so far).  We'll see what the data brings.

8:30 Update:  Durable Goods came in at 0.8% vs 2% expected so a bit disappointing but not terrible.  Mostly it's supply and labor shortages holding things back – not a lack of orders.   Last month, however, was up 3.2% so we are slowing rapidly as the latest round of stimulus wears off.   This is in line with the slowdown we saw in the Manufacturing Surveys (ISM and PMI) that indicate that stimulus is driving this economy – not healthy consumers.  

Attempts to craft a bipartisan infrastructure plan hit multiple obstacles that again pushed Senate negotiators past another deadline to reach a deal.  Talks continued through Monday night but a resolution remained elusive, even as the White House and some Democrats expressed confidence that an accord would eventually be struck.  Negotiators ended the day Monday still attempting to bridge differences over transit funding, spending levels on water projects, whether all federally-backed projects should pay so-called prevailing wages and how much unspent Covid-19 money can be used to pay for infrastructure, among other disputed items.

Earlier Monday, Republicans rejected a counteroffer advanced by the Biden administration and Democrats, saying it attempted to reopen settled issues. Democrats accused Republicans of stalling.  The Debt Cieling runs out on Friday and Republicans hope to crash the Government in order to make Biden look bad.  The fact that Covid is once again raging out of control in many parts of America and something needs to be done doesn't seem to enter into the equation.  

Tokyo just hit a record high in daily infections – long, long after the virus was supposed to be "under control" and Europe has cities going back to lockdown as re-opening without the whole poplultion vaccinated (they have 70%) has been a disaster.  In fact, Orange County, Florida (home to Disney, where I am this week), is back to over 1,000 new cases per day – as high as last year's peak rates and the mayor has declared it a crisis.  61.5% of Orange County residents over the age of 12 have been vaccinated.  

Orange County hosts not only Walt Disney World and Universal Studios Orlando Resort, but also SeaWorld Orlando. The parks dropped many of their pandemic-era rules in recent months, including temperature checks for guests. Fully vaccinated guests do not need to wear face masks in the parks, and while Universal isn't requiring social distancing among visitors, its website says the park encourages "all guests to keep a safe distance between travel parties."  Over the past week, Florida accounted for nearly a quarter of all new cases in the United States — more than any other state.

Be careful out there.

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Good Morning.


  2. I wonder what the PE of the market is with these bloated tickets excluded. 


  3. BABA down further 185 closing on to my 170 put


  4. Good morning!

    P/E/Dawg – Just take away AAPL's $86Bn in profit and the P/E for the rest of Corporate America goes up 5%.  AAPL is in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq and, as I noted above, they get double-counted through all the people that sell their product (not to mention the parts they buy).  Basically, it's an Apple Economy…

    BABA/Yodi – I think they are just being dragged down with Chinese stocks for no good reason.  Haven't heard about any issues with BABA recently.

    /NQ back below 15,000! 

    Technical Tuesday – A Healthy Pullback or Down with the Sickness?

    Our 5% Rule™ let's us know where primary support and resistance zones tend to form and we saw weakness in the Russell (small caps) last week and we moved more of our hedges there – just in time.  Not only is the Russell now at the May lows but so is the Nikkei, Euro Stoxx and Germany's DAX and China has already failed their lows so it stands to reason the US is simply lagging in the sell-off and we have more carnage ahead.  

       

    For the Nasdaq, back to May is a 10% drop, only 5% for the S&P and only 3% for the Dow.  Below that would be a total nightmare as this market hasn't formed any proper support since the fall of 2020 and that was Dow 28,000 (-17.5%), S&P (-17.5%) 3,500, Nasdaq 12,000 (-17.5%) and Russell 1,600 (25%).  That's why we doubled our Russell shorts – further to fall!  Given those bases and using our 5% Rule™, we can discover where support should be on the way down.  

    • Dow 28,000 to 35,000 is 7,000 points so 1,400-point retraces to 33,600 (which we hit on the nose yesterday) and 32,200.
    • S&P 3,500 to 4,400 is 900 points so 180-point retraces to 4,220 (yesterday's low 4,224) and 4,040.
    • Nasdaq 12,000 to 15,000 is 3,000 points so 600-point retraces to 14,400 (14,445) and 13,800.
    • Russell 1,600 to 2,350 is 750 points so 150-point retraces to 2,100 (on the nose!) and 1,950.

    Remember, the 5% Rule™ is NOT T/A – it's just math.  Just like science that people can't understand seems like magic, math that people can't understand seems like T/A but T/A is just as ridiculous as magic – remember that.  I'm not going to get into the reason it works so well as we've done that before (see our Education and Strategy Sections).  Suffice to say it's based on the predictable actions of trading algorithms, which is how we can be 4 for 4 predicting index pullbacks.  

    More useful now though, is how do we identify whether this was a mild pullback that's over or we're pausing for the next move down?  We do that the same way we calculated the pullbacks though now we look for bounces off the pullback lines.  If we get a strong bounce by day 2 (tomorrow) that holds (without breaking) for 2 full days – then the sell-off is over.  

    • Dow 35,000 to 33,600 is a 1,400-point drop so 280-point bounces to 33,880 (weak) and 34,160 (strong) 
    • S&P 4,400 to 4,220 is a 180-point drop so 36-point bounces to 4,256 (weak) and 4,292 (strong).  
    • Nasdaq 15,000 to 14,400 is a 600-point drop so 120-point bounces to 14,520 (weak) and 14,640 (strong)
    • Russell 2,350 to 2,100 is a 150-point drop so 30-point bounces to 2,130 (weak) and 2,160 (strong)
       

    Weak bounces are pretty much a given as we're in a very strong uptrending market and the FREE MONEY keeps pouring in every day so it's hard to stay down but the nature of this sell-off is a re-adjusting of economic expections for the rest of this year and, without EVEN MORE STIMULUS, we're not likely to find support so easily near the recent highs.  

    So we now have Dow 34,850, S&P 4,395, Nas 15,000 and RUT 2,180 – none have even a weak retrace so far.


  5. FXP finally moving our way.


  6. I thought russia was banned from the games.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/olympics/after-simone-biless-stunning-withdrawal-russia-wins-gold-medal/ar-AAMC7dV?ocid=DELLDHP17&li=BBnb7Kz&pc=DCTE

     

    I used to look forward to the games. The athletes should have remained amateurs and the IOC has become a corrupt sham…  :(


  7. Phil / BABA – what are your thoughts on adjusting the position, I was thinking of selling more short calls on a pop and have a highly bullish play on this ( '23 200 / 290 PCS mooning to something with a 1X on the long gallon 1.3 on the short call on a pop?   Does not look like it is holding 190.


  8. INTC

    Analysts widely praised Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) ambitions after yesterday's roadmap update but

    Wedbush says management is "taking the right steps to reinvigorate Intel," but the "process will necessarily be painful for investors" with costs higher during a period of underperformance. The firm expects Intel to continue to lose market share into 2023 or beyond "as technological parity is 2-3 years out assuming Intel executes." Wedbush maintains an Underperform rating and $50 price target.

    Credit Suisse (Outperform, $80 price target) notes that Intel didn't provide the financial implications of the roadmap, leaving those details for the analyst day in November. The firm thinks "investors will not underwrite an improving narrative until estimates have been 'de-risked'."

    "The first step in solving a problem is admitting you have one," says Benchmark, noting that Intel said it will lag the competition until 2024. The firm notes that Intel changed its semiconductor process node names to more closely match those of external foundry partner TSMC and the name change provided "healthy assistance" to making the roadmap look more substantial.





  9. Our play on PIXY will lose PM maergin status with TOS


  10. Hi, I'm sorry, went to a "quick" meeting and it took forever.

    FXP/Brain – That was certainly set up to be the fail point but the way they did it is just strange.  Self-inflicted.

    IOC/1020 – I'm pretty sure it was always a corrupt sham – we were just young and innocent.

    BABA/Batman – In the LTP, we adjust to this:

    BABA Short Put 2023 20-JAN 200.00 PUT [BABA @ $181.55 $-10.21] -10 2/3/2021 (542) $-33,250 $33.25 $14.40 $-51.45     $47.65 $6.09 $-14,400 -43.3% $-47,650
    BABA Long Call 2023 20-JAN 200.00 CALL [BABA @ $181.55 $-10.21] 20 7/16/2021 (542) $90,000 $45.00 $-13.60     $31.40 $-4.55 $-27,200 -30.2% $62,800

    We can sell the $200 calls for $31 and buy the $140 calls for $61 and we'd have a net $0 roll that puts us in a $60 ($120,000) spread that's $80,000 in the money so I'm not too worried yet but I am worried.  I just don't think we have enough information to be more aggressive than that and I'm not even officially doing that yet but it is a nice fallback.  


  11. BABA was -$1,250 when we did our last review (7/15), now it's down $41,600!  

    INTC/Batman – I think they'll muddle through.

    Big, big money on /NQ's trip from 15,000 to 14,800 – $4,000 per contract!  

       

    And on a weak Dollar day too

        

     


  12. MSFT beat but went down but AAPL and GOOGL knocked it out of the park.

    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares are down 2.3% in after hours trading after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analyst estimates but included a sequential drop in Azure revenue growth.
    • For FQ4, Microsoft reported overall revenue growth of 22% to $46.2B and adjusted EPS of $2.17, which topped analyst estimates by $0.25.
    • Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $14.7B, up 25% on the year and above the $13.97B that analysts expected. Office Commercial products and cloud services increased 20% driven by the 25% growth for Office 365 Commercial. Office Consumer grew 18%, and LinkedIn rose 46% due to the 97% surge in Marketing Solutions.
    • Intelligent Cloud sales were up 30% to $17.4B, above the $16.43B consensus. Revenue for the Azure cloud platform climbed 51% or 45% in constant currency versus the 50% and 46% growth in the fiscal second quarter, respectively.
    • More Personal Computing increased 9% to $14.1B versus the $13.87B consensus. Surface sales dropped 20% and Xbox fell 4%, losing the pandemic-driven tailwind strengthened by the console refresh. Office Commercial products and cloud strength helped offset the losses.
    • Search advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 53% during the quarter.
    • Microsoft will provide guidance on the earnings call, which starts at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
    • The Xbox sales decline came during the same calendar quarter that consumer spending on videogames posted a surprise 2% gain on the year up against difficult pandemic comps. 
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.30 beats by $0.29.
    • Revenue of $81.4B (+36.4% Y/Y) beats by $7.93B.
    • iPhone $39.57B vs. $34.56B consensus.
    • Mac $8.24B vs. $7.99B consensus.
    • iPad $7.37B vs. $7.13B consensus.
    • Wearables, Home and Accessories $8.8B vs. $7.63B consensus.
    • Services $17.48B vs. $16.32B consensus.
    • Shares +0.9%.
    • Press Release
    • Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) reports organic sales were up 6.2% in Q2 vs. +5.1% consensus.
    • Organic sales were down 0.3% in North America. Organic sales were also positive for the Latin America (+33.7%), AMEA (+7.0%) and Europe (+5.4%) regions.
    • Volume and pricing drove the organic revenue growth, partially offset by unfavorable mix during the quarter.
    • Gross profit margin was up 20 bps to 39.9% of sales due to pricing and manufacturing productivity, partially offset by higher raw material costs and unfavorable product mix.
    • Operating margin was 16.2% of sales vs. 15.9% a year ago.
    • Looking ahead, Mondelez expects sees organic sales growth of +4% vs. +3% prior view. Adjusted EPS growth in a high single-digit rate is anticipated.
    • CEO Dirk Van de Put: "We continue to see strength across the vast majority of our geographies, categories and brands as we remain intensely focused on consistent execution and reinvestment to further strengthen our position. We are confident that our strategy, long runway of clear growth drivers and advantaged enablers will continue to drive consistent and attractive growth and value generation over the long term."
    • MDLZ -1.38%AH to $64.33 after the earnings print.
    • Mondelez International was one of the standouts at a recent Jefferies consumer conference with its M&A commentary seen as intriguing.
    • Alphabet is jumping (GOOG +2%GOOGL +4.7%) after squashing earnings estimates with its Q2 report - an outlier gainer after a tech earnings beat in a high-priced market.
    • Revenues shot up 62% to $61.9B, a full 10% over analyst estimates, and EPS rose 169% to $27.26, topping expectations by more than 41%.
    • Those revenues increased 57% in constant currency. Revenue ex-TAC was about $51B, easily topping an expected $46B.
    • Operating income more than tripled to $19.36B, with operating margin increasing to 31% from a previous 17%.
    • “Our strong second quarter revenues of $61.9 billion reflect elevated consumer online activity and broad-based strength in advertiser spend. Again, we benefited from excellent execution across the board by our teams,” says Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat.
    • Revenue breakout: Google search and other, $35.85B (up 68%); YouTube ads, $7B (up 83.7%); Google Network, $7.6B (up 60.4%); Google other, $6.62B (up 29.3%); Google Cloud, $4.63B (up 53.9%); Other Bets, $192M (up 29.7%).
    • Conference call to come at 4:30 p.m. ET.
    • Press release
    • The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.37 misses by $0.41.
    • Revenue of $769M (+159.9% Y/Y) beats by $19.8M.
    • Comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 150.0% Y/Y
    • Shares -11%.
    • Press Release
    • Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.09; GAAP EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.12.
    • Revenue of $3.85B (+99.5% Y/Y) beats by $240M.
    • For Q3, AMD guides revenue of ~$4.1B (consensus: $3.8B), plus or minus $100M, and non-GAAP gross margin of 48%.
    • For the full year 2021, AMD now expects revenue growth of ~60%, up from prior guidance of ~50%, driven by strong growth across all businesses. AMD now expects non-GAAP gross margin to be ~48% for the full year 2021, up from prior guidance of ~47%.
    • Press Release

     

     

    • Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) reports global comparable store sales rose 73% during FQ3 vs. +69.6% consensus estimate. Average ticket was down 1% and transaction growth soared 75% during the quarter.
    • Comparable sales in the Americas increased 84% to easily miss the consensus expectation for a gain of 73.4%. International comparable sales were up 41% vs. +58% consensus.
    • Active membership in Starbucks Rewards in the U.S. rose 48% to 24.2M during the quarter, a significant jump even against the pandemic comparable.
    • The company's consolidated operating margin came in at 24.4 of sales vs. -14.4% a year ago and 18.5% consensus.
    • Starbucks opened 352 net new stores during the quarter for 3% year-over-year unit growth. The coffee chain ended the period with a record 33,295 stores globally.
    • "Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment," says CEO Kevin Johnson.
    • Looking ahead, Starbucks expects FY21 revenue of $29.1B to $29.3B vs. $28.8B consensus and FY21 EPS of $3.20 to $3.25 vs. a prior view of $2.90 to $3.00 and $3.00 consensus.
    • Starbucks has a conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET.
    • Shares of Starbucks are -2.48% AH to $122.90 after the double earnings beat.
    • IMAX (NYSE:IMAX): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.12 beats by $0.13; GAAP EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.10.
    • Revenue of $51M (+473.0% Y/Y) beats by $7.21M.
    • The IMAX Global Network is now 90% open, the highest level since the onset of the pandemic with capacity limitations continuing to ease in many key markets worldwide.
    • Shares +2%.
    • Press Release
    • President Joe Biden said Tuesday that his administration is evaluating whether to require COVID-19 vaccinations for all federal employees as the highly transmissible Delta variant spreads across the U.S. leading to an uptick in cases.
    • When asked if the government would impose a vaccine mandate, Mr. Biden said: “That’s under consideration right now,” CNBC reported.
    • Previously, the Department of Veterans Affairs, which runs one of the nation's largest health systems, said it would require all 115,000 front-line workers to receive coronavirus vaccines.
    • Related tickers: Pfizer (PFE +0.7%), BioNTech (BNTX -0.8%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +0.4%), Moderna (MRNA -2.2%)

    • The House Rules Committee yesterday approved several cannabis-related amendments to be included in a floor vote on a spending bill, Marijuana Moment reports.
    • One amendment would allow CBD and hemp-derived products to be lawfully included in dietary supplements under the Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics Act.
    • Another amendment would eliminate language that allows federal funding to go to universities that are conducting research on marijuana.
    • A third would allow researchers to study several schedule I drugs, such as MDMA, psilocybin, and ibogaine.
    • A fourth would transfer $25M to the National Forest System  for enforcement of illegal marijuana trespass grow sites on federal lands.
    • Multi-state operators: Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF -2.3%); Harvest Health & Recreation (OTCQX:HRVSF -2.5%); Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK:CURLF -4.0%); Acreage Holdings (OTCQX:ACRHF -6.9%); Cresco Labs (OTCQX:CRLBF -3.7%); Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX:GTBIF -3.6%); and MedMen Enterprises (OTCQB:MMNFF -5.2%).
    • Cannabis distributors: OrganiGram Holdings (OGI -4.5%); Cronos Group (CRON -2.2%); HEXO Corp. (HEXO -3.3%); Aurora Cannabis (ACB -5.1%); Canopy Growth (CGC -6.8%); Tilray (TLRY -7.1%),  Sundial Growers (SNDL -3.6%); and GrowGeneration (GRWG -1.2%).

     

     

    • Dip-buyers arrived to help the stock market trim losses, but the broader market still saw its first losing day after five up sessions and the Nasdaq (COMP.IND) -1.2% slumped.
    • Falling Chinese stocks, amid a government clampdown, soured investors a little on risk as the major averages fell from record highs.
    • The S&P (SP500) -0.5% and Dow (DJI) -0.2% closed down and Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 4 basis points to 1.24%.
    • The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index (NASDAQ:PGJ), which tracks 98 U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, fell more than 5% and is down about 50% from its February highs.
    • EV stocks were particularly hard hit.
    • “With China, you just don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel, told Bloomberg. “It’s not that we don’t have a regulatory risk in the U.S., but here there is a legal process. In China, it’s at the flick of a switch.”
    • The megacaps all closed lower, but also well off lows of the day going into a big batch of postmarket earnings.
    • The S&P sectors closed mostly lower, with only defensive sectors posting gains.
    • Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) was the best performer, while Communication Services (NYSEARCA:XLC) at the bottom.
    • Video game stocks weighed on XLC, with Activision Blizzard tumbling as employees plan a walkout over company conditions.

     

     

    • United Parcel Service (UPS -7.0%) trades at its lowest level since late April after rattling investor with margin guidance below expectations.
    • On Wall Street, Bank of America lowers estimates on UPS to account for a growth deceleration shown off in Q2 that was a bit faster than anticipated.
    • Analyst Ken Hoexter says headwinds for UPS contrast with UPS saying it expects to be at the high end of 2023 financial targets. The headwinds include higher compensation expense from union contract rate increases that go into effect in August, targeted wage increases in certain geographies with tight labor markets and negative mix effects, with lower margin enterprise and B2C volumes representing a larger share of peak volumes relative to the first half.
    • BofA cuts its price objective on UPS to $220 from $237 on a target multiple shift to 19X the 2022 EPS estimate.
    • During the conference call, UPS execs highlighted the company's strong balance sheet.

     

     

    • 3M's (MMM -1%) strong Q2 earnings beat and full-year guidance raise are overshadowed by concerns about rising raw materials and logistics costs and the potential impact on margins, sending shares down as much as 3%.
    • "There were more inefficiencies that we have had to deal with just as raw material [supply] was not as fluid as we would have thought," CFO Monish Patolawala said during today's earnings conference call.
    • 3M says inflation shaved $0.17/share off 3M's Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.59/share, more than it expected as the higher costs overwhelmed price increases.
    • After an earlier forecast that rising raw material costs would hurt FY 2021 earnings by $0.30?$0.50/share, 3M now sees higher costs clipping EPS by $0.65?$0.80.
    • CEO Mike Roman said 3M is raising prices broadly across its portfolio to try to mitigate the impact, but most of those benefits would not occur until Q4.
    • The company also said demand for its face masks was waning, as personal safety products suffered a low single?digit sales decline and disposable respirator sales fell by 11% sequentially as COVID?related hospitalizations fell.
    • 3M's business will remain healthy through the rest of the year, as shown by the higher full-year EPS guidance, but some investors could be disappointed that guidance was not raised even more.
    • The company upped the high end of its full-year EPS outlook by $0.40 to $10.10, which may seem underwhelming in light of its $0.31 beat for Q2 alone.
    • Citing a weak growth outlook, Wolfe Research recently downgraded 3M to a Sell equivalent.

     

     

    • The U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority is investigating Rio Tinto (RIO -3.4%) to determine whether the company breached listing rules in disclosures about the value of its Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia in 2018-19, Financial Times reports.
    • Rio said in July 2019 that the underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi would require an additional $1.2B-$1.9B in capital and face substantial delays, as difficult ground conditions meant it would have to rethink the project's design and development schedule.
    • But some investors and a former employee claimed the company knew the expansion project was in trouble months before the problems were disclosed to investors.
    • Expansion of Oyu Tolgoi, Rio's biggest copper growth project, has seen costs soar to $6.75B, ~$1.4B higher than Rio's estimate in 2016, and has led to friction over funding with Turquoise Hill (TRQ -0.5%), which owns 66% of the project, and is in turned 50.8% owned by Rio Tinto.
    • Separately, Rio Tinto committed $2.4B to the development of the Jadar lithium borates project in Serbia, ramping up its exposure to battery materials.
    • The International Monetary Fund's outlook for 2022 global growth increases, while its overall growth outlook for 2021 remains unchanged from its previous one.
    • In both cases, the outlooks foresee widening gaps in the recovery between advanced economies and emerging market (EM) and developing economies.
    • The IMF's global growth forecast for 2021 is 6%, the same as its prior forecast; but the growth prospects for advanced economies improved by 0.5 percentage point, while the prospects for growth in EM and developing economies were revised downward by the same amount.
    • For 2022, the IMF projects global growth of 4.9%, up from its previous forecast of 4.4%. That outlook reflects a sizeable upgrade for advanced economies but a more modest one for EM and developing economies.
    • To be clear, the pandemic has hurt economic growth around the world, but the degrees of the damage widely vary. The IMF estimates that the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8% a year, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022 vs. an annual per capita loss of 6.3% for emerging markets and developing economies, excluding China.
    • Reasons for the gap include the increased vaccination rates and higher level of fiscal support in advanced economies vs. those of EM and developing economies, the IMF said.
    • "Multilateral action is needed to ensure rapid, worldwide access to vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics. This would save countless lives, prevent new variants from emerging, and add trillions of dollars to global economic growth," the IMF said.
    • In June, the World Bank sees fastest global recovery in 80 years, led by China, U.S.

  13. Phil / BABA – I'm confused.  I'm tracking the LT port with the following ( note this is after a previous roll for 30k) . 

    40X Jan '23 200 calls ( 44) 

    -40X Jan '23 290 calls (16) 

    -11 Jan '23 200 puts (35) 

     Part of my just wants to put nothing into it and roll the 295 short calls to the 250. end up with the below   - lower upside but also lower downside, take 26K off the table and bee at net zero…. 

    40X Jan '23 200 calls ( 44) 

    -40X Jan '23 250 calls (18) 

    -11 Jan '23 200 puts (35) 

    What do you suggest  ?  Thanks