Archive for September 2nd, 2021

Virgin Galactic Shares Plunge As FAA Grounds Flights Pending Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

On the heels of reports that Virgin Galactic’s space ship carrying billionaire Richard Branson and others deviated from its approved flight path on a July trip, the US FAA opened a probe and grounded all further flights until the investigation is complete.

Virgin Galactic may not return the SpaceShipTwo vehicle to flight until the FAA approves the final mishap investigation report or determines the issues related to the mishap do not affect public safety,” the FAA said in an emailed statement.

The New Yorker first reported the probe, claiming that the flight encountered high winds and flew outside its designated airspace for 1 minute, 41 seconds.

Virgin responded to The New Yorker by saying the report was "misleading" and that the flight was “safe and successful," adding that the ship didn’t “travel above any population centers or cause a hazard to the public.”

“As we move towards commercial service, we are confident we have the right safety culture, policies and processes in place to build and operate a safe and successful business over the long term,” the company said in an emailed statement Wednesday.

SPCE shares are tumbling on the news…

Virgin Galactic was planning its next suborbital spaceflight late this month or in early October.





A Bitcoin-Like Opportunity In Uranium?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Adventures in Capitalism

Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of the trust structure where any capital that went in, was converted into Bitcoin, but there was no mechanism in place to ever sell coins and redeem that capital. As a result, GBTC became a growing repository of Bitcoin. At first, it bought a few hundred coins a day, then a thousand, then a few thousand. As the trading volume increased, the inflows also increased. As the inflows increased, the daily bitcoin purchases increased, eventually driving the Bitcoin price higher. As the price went higher, new investors were drawn to GBTC and the inflows accelerated—spinning the flywheel faster. It was so obvious that this would lead to higher prices, that I called it “My Favorite Ponzi Scheme…” Over time, much as I had predicted, these inflows drove the price of Bitcoin and ultimately GBTC dramatically higher. Early this year, I had a well-timed exit for a quick multi-bagger and my capital went onto greener pastures in depressed energy assets.

I bring this all up, as I see a similar phenomenon in uranium—a much smaller and less liquid market, potentially creating a more dramatic effect should inflows accelerate. Long-time readers of this site will remember that I have a sweet spot for Uranium. I wrote about it back in 2019 but sold out during the first quarter of 2020 as the global equity markets collapsed and better opportunities presented themselves. At the time, the thesis, while directionally accurate, didn’t pan out as the supply deficit was insufficient to overcome above-ground stockpiles, capping price discovery.

In the year and change since I sold out, the overall supply deficit has continued to increase, while above-ground stockpiles have continued to be consumed. While uranium aficionados like to fixate on calculating the current deficit to the nearest decimal, for the sake of this post, let’s use some VERY broad numbers. The world is producing roughly 125 million pounds from primary mining, 25 million pounds from secondary sources and consuming roughly 180 million pounds, for an overall deficit of


continue reading





PhilStockWorld’s LIVE Weekly Webinar 09-01-2021

 

PSW's LIVE Weekly Webinar 09-01-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:01 – Checking on the Market
00:00:50 – AAPL
00:07:10 – LTP
00:08:17 – BA
00:21:32 – COVID Updates and Discussion
00:28:44 – Travel and Tourism Sector / Semniconuctors
00:30:26 – RCL 
00:31:02 – CCL
00:31:11 – BKNG
00:32:06 – LVS / WYNN / MAR
00:36:37 – RIO
00:43:55 – Portfolio Review
00:45:44 – IBM
00:48:17 – GOLD
00:51:55 -  PFE
00:55:50 – SKT
00:56:28 – SPWR
00:58:24 – VIAC
00:59:17 HPQ
01:05:52 – Money Talk Portfolio
01:10:45 – BYD
01:14:28 – Top Trade Reviews
01:17:15 – T

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to see what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to all our webinars, join us at PSW!

Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view our past weekly webinars here.





Mets GM Zack Scott Arrested For DUI After Leaving Fundraiser At Owner Steve Cohen’s House

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1340ET): The Mets have placed Zack Scott on administrative leave.

*  *  *

New York Mets General Manager Zack Scott is not going to be joining the team for its upcoming road trip after he was arrested for DUI Tuesday in White Plains, multiple sources including ESPN reported. He was reportedly on his way home from owner Steve Cohen's house. 

Scott was arrested at about 4:45am in the morning on Tuesday, asleep at the wheel of his SUV at a traffic light, the report says. The police determined he was intoxicated and he then refused a breathalyzer test. He took a field sobriety test and failed, according to the NY Post.

He was booked and released that morning. The Mets released a statement, saying: "We were surprised and deeply disappointed to learn this morning about an alleged DUI involving Zack Scott. We take this matter very seriously. Zack will not be traveling with the team for our upcoming road trip while we learn more and determine next steps."

To add insult to injury, the Post reports Scott was also "cited for stopping on a highway, disobeying a traffic control device and failing to notify the Department of Motor Vehicles of a change in address".

Scott was reportedly at a fundraiser for the team's Amazin' Mets foundation at owner Steve Cohen's house on Monday night. He reportedly left the event around 9PM.

He had been promoted to acting GM in January after the Mets previous GM was fired after an expose revealed he sent sexually explicit text messages to a female reporter.

Scott had previously worked for the Boston Red Sox for 17 seasons. He is due in court Thursday morning.





NHTSA Adds 12th Crash To Tesla Investigation, Is Requesting An “Exhaustive” And “Sweeping” Amount Of Autopilot Data

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The NHTSA appears that it could be digging in with Tesla, especially in the wake of yet another Autopilot accident involving a first responder vehicle that we reported on just hours ago.

The regulatory agency, which announced a broad and formal investigation into the company's Autopilot feature just days ago, has now added a 12th crash into the scope of its investigation, CNBC reported this week.

It is demanding that Tesla provide an "exhaustive" amount of data about Autopilot before October 22. Phil Koopman, a professor at Carnegie Mellon, characterized the regulator's request for data as "really sweeping". 

He continued: "This is an incredibly detailed request for huge amounts of data. But it is exactly the type of information that would be needed to dig in to whether Tesla vehicles are acceptably safe.”

The agency was likely prompted by a crash in Orlando days ago involving a Tesla that "narrowly" missed hitting a State Trooper. The Tesla driver had the Autopilot engaged during the accident, according to police.

The NHTSA recently said it had opened a formal investigation into the company's Autopilot feature. It said it is opening a probe into Tesla's Model X, S, and 3 for model years 2014-2021. The broad range of models and model years means that this could be the broad investigation that Tesla skeptics have been requesting for years. 

Even Tesla founder Elon Musk doubts Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Beta version 9.2, calling it "actually not great" in a casual conversation on Twitter.





Social Security Will Not Be Able To Pay Promised Benefits By 2034

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Social Security faces a fiscal cliff in 2034. Let's discuss what's happening and what will be done about it.

2034 Fiscal Cliff 

In its 276-page 2021 Annual Report, the Social Security Administrations projects a fiscal cliff starting in 2034.

The report dives into fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions, productivity assumptions, inflation assumption, tax contribution assumptions, etc.

Three Key Words

  1. Assumptions

  2. Shortfall 

  3. Hypothetical

Social Security Costs vs. Non-Interest Income

  • Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, Social Security’s total cost is projected to be higher than its total income in 2021 and all later years. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.

  • The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds along with projected program income are sufficient to cover projected program cost over the next 10 years under the intermediate assumptions. However, the ratio of reserves to annual cost is projected to decline from 253 percent at the beginning of 2021 to 85 percent at the beginning of 2030.

  • Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income in 2021, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034.

OASI is Social Security and DI is the Social Security Disability Fund. They are separate programs but typically merged in discussion. 

Magnitude of 75-Year Actuarial Shortfall 

To illustrate the magnitude of the 75-year actuarial deficit, consider that for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period: 

  • (1) revenue would have to increase by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.36 percentage points to 15.76 percent; 

  • (2) scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of about 21 percent applied to all current and future beneficiaries, or about 25 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for benefits in 2021 or later; 


continue reading





Phil Davis on BNN’s MoneyTalk — 9-1-21: Two New Option Strategies

 

Phil discusses the stock market, reviews the Money Talk virtual portfolio, and adds a couple of new options trades (details below) on Bloomberg BNN's Money Talk with Kim Parlee. 

 

The growing disconnect between market performance and valuations

 

 

Two option strategies to play market trends

 

Trade 1: HP Inc. 

Trade 2: Boyd Gaming





Bill Gross Mocks “Wokeness”, Lashes Out At Bonds As “Investment Garbage”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bill Gross may no longer be running Pimco, or be the ruling bond king, a title which quietly was transferred over the DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have opinions – at time quite stark – and his latest investment outlook posted on his website reminds us of that.

In the first half of the at times meandering letter, Gross first pokes fun of his own tabloid divorce and his infamous recent lawsuit with a neighbor over the constant blaring of the theme from Gilligan's Island, before mocking the retail mania observed in the NFT world (where an invisible sculpture recently sold for $15,000) and proceeding to slam the cultural takeover by "wokeness", which he equates with conformity, quitting and mediocrity. Indeed, he notes that the mere "fact that I even have an opinion" … is "probably subject to a wokeness misdemeanor, so better to first say I agree with your opinion, or someone else’s on critical race theory, abortion, or whether Simone Biles was brave or just a quitter", to wit:

I’m finding that expressing an opinion or telling a joke in public company these days is most dangerous to one’s reputation, not that my past dustup with a Laguna Beach neighbor over Gilligan’s Island or planting a stink bomb going out the door in my ex-wife’s toilet haven’t sealed the deal for me already. But I now have a solution that allows me to vent opinions without consequences although I have to credit a Mr. Salvatore Garau for the brainstorm and the actual trailblazing creation of what he calls his “Invisible Sculpture” that takes NFTs and “live art” one step further.

This little-known artist (whoops I expressed an opinion) decided to create an existent but non-visible sculpture in a box with nothing but space in it, yet full as he claims “of energy” that the observer can feel. There is literally nothing in it. The artist, however, claims that if so, it is a metaphor of our times, and good for him, because he managed to sell it online for $15,000. Well, I’m not sure what to charge for my new box but I (and you) can now express opinions on sex, religion and politics without anyone being able


continue reading





Magical Thinking About Green Energy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The incentives must change from "waste is growth" to hyper-efficiency, conservation, right to repair and manufactured objects engineered to last a generation or longer and be recyclable at scale.

Humans like novelty but don't like change. It's easy to confuse the two. When we say, "I need a change," what we mean is "I'd like to be refreshed by some novelty," not "I want all the uncertainty, ambiguity and potential for errors and losses that come with change."

Humans like a new model of truck (novelty) but don't like their truck is taken away (change).

Since life is change, we all some experience with it. Some changes happen to us, others are the result of conscious choices we make.

Every individual has a mix of aptitudes, strategies and experiences with both kinds of change. Some of us are better at handling one kind or the other, some don't handle either very well, some handle all change remarkably well.

Very few of us say, "I sure would like to have a health crisis." We don't choose the health crisis, but we do choose our response.

Like many of you, I've had accidents (health crises), major career changes and multiple moves to different locales.

as a general rule, changes we choose / direct have a push-pull aspect: there's something negative we want to avoid or end, and something positive we want to obtain.

For example, we might realize that our current job is a dissatisfactory dead-end (the negative) and we need a more satisfying career (the positive).

A health crisis is negative but the prospect of this being a catalyst for a healthier lifestyle is positive.

Being fired or losing our job is negative (not the change we wanted or chose) but once we accept that our life is going to change one way or the other, we can view this negative as a positive catalyst-- a move we didn't choose for various reasons, but a positive move because otherwise we wouldn't have taken all the risks and uncertainties that go with fashioning another career.

As a species, humanity is approaching the


continue reading





Morgan Stanley Nukes Its Q3 GDP Forecast, Now Sees Just 2.9% Growth, Down From 6.5%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Two weeks ago, Goldman caused a stir across Wall Street and financial media when the bank slashed its GDP forecast for the second time in 3 weeks, and now sees just 5.5% Q3 growth, down from 8.5% previously even as it saw inflation continuing to rise at a precipitous pace, and while Goldman didn't use the word – for obvious reasons – the conclusion was that stagflation is knocking.

But if Goldman was a surprise, what Morgan Stanley did this morning – when the bank slashed its Q3 GDP from 6.5% to just 2.9% - was shocking. Citing the sharp slowdown in spending and consumer confident, Morgan Stanley noted that "motor vehicles sales in August was the latest data point to miss to the downside, with a fourth consecutive decline in annualized unit sales following the stimulus-related surge in April (highest rate since 2005)."

So, "incorporating motor vehicles sales, and implications for consumer spending, equipment investment, inventories, and capital goods imports and exports," the bank is "lowering our tracking for 3Q GDP from 6.5% to 2.9%."

Realizing that such a call could provoke some serious concerns across Wall Street, as other strategists scrambled to piggyback and thus confirm that the expansion is now effectively toast, or come up with "novel" reasons why Morgan Stanley is wrong if only to justify the market's relentless trek higher, the bank's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, tried to spin the huge downgrade in the nicest possible way, saying that August is the "bottom for growth in broad activity" and adding that the "expansion continues to advance, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace in 3Q. The slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending and ongoing supply issues", to wit:

Growth in the US economy is coming off a torrid pace in the first half of the year as stimulus spending and a reopening-fueled burst of activity cools. Ongoing supply constraints are additionally crimping key high value-add industries such as motor vehicles. We have anticipated slower growth in 2H21, but it has been greater-than-expected, concentrated in the third quarter. August is the month when we think broad activity slowed the most, which will be reflected in data


continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates 'soon' to fight inflation: What that means for consumers and the economy

 

Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates ‘soon’ to fight inflation: What that means for consumers and the economy

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the central bank prepares to raise rates for the first time in three years. Brendan Smialowski/Pool via AP

Courtesy of Alexander Kurov, West Virginia University and Marketa Wolfe, ...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Starvine Capital Corporation 2021 Commentary

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Starvine Capital Corporation annual commentary for the year ended December 31, 2021.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Fellow Investor:

For the calendar year ended December 31, 2021, fully invested accounts in the Flagship Strategy increased 48.4% to 49.3%, while fully invested accounts in the Mid-Large Cap Strategy increased 43.7% to 45.5%. During the period, the S&P TSX Total Return Index1 increased 25.1% an...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Energy Stocks Suggesting Long-Term Strength Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Energy stocks spent the decade of 2010 to 2020 mired in weakness… but is that trend coming to an end?

The past two years have seen the Energy Sector (XLE) surge as Crude Oil has rallied back over $80.

Today’s chart is a long-term “weekly” ratio chart of the Energy Sector to S&P 500. And this chart may be illustrating why energy stocks may be ready to out-perform in the weeks/months/years ahead.

As you can see, the XLE/SPY ratio formed a strong bottoming pattern over the past 24 months. And now the ratio is breaking o...



more from Kimble C.S.

Zero Hedge

Nomura: Here Comes 'The Big One'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charlie McElligott, Managing Director of Cross-Asset Strategy at Nomura,

“Pre-FOMC drift” - but this time, thanks to a massive “kick-save” from Microsoft guidance which turned the entirety of global risk-assets from cratering lower in the after-hours trade last night to now, spasming higher into Fed later today (NQ +4.4% low to high) and with still substantial “short Gamma vs spot” out there for Dealer hedging purposes, as well as sharply “netted-down” exposure from Fundemental investors and outright “shorts” in CTA Trend….while conversely, we currently see a quiet R...



more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

 

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

Nucleic acid vaccines use mRNA to give cells instructions on how to produce a desired protein. Libre de Droit/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Deborah Fuller, University of Washington

The two most successful coronavirus vaccines developed in the U.S. – the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines – are both mRNA vaccines. The idea of using genetic material to produce an immune response has opened up a world of research ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Politics

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine - and why the US is involved

 

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine – and why the US is involved

Courtesy of Tatsiana Kulakevich, University of South Florida

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 19, 2022, that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and cautioned Russian president Vladimir Putin that he “will regret having done it,” following months of building tension.

Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine over the past several months.

In mid-January, Russia began moving ...



more from Politics

Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.