Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Technical Tuesday – Looking to Bounce

4,350 or bust! 

That's the game for the S&P 500 this week but we're expecting the bust though raising the debt ceiling may buy us a week and passing the infrastructure bill may buy us a whole quarter before the inevitble correction completes itself.  So far, nothing has stopped us from moving down to our strong retrace line at 4,230, which is our next stop, if there is no intervention but, for the day, we're looking for a bounce back to 4,350, which is the strong bounce line off 4,230 – a fall we haven't even taken yet.

Very simply, per our 5% Rule™, if you fail to bounce over the bounce line for a level you haven't even fallen to yet – then you'll be seeing that level pretty soon!  That's how the failure at 4,440 tipped us off that we were going to make our next leg down last week and now, we're HOPING to bounce to a point almost 100 points below that or 4,230 – here we come!  

We are pre-market bouncy this morning at 4,310 but that's not impressive at all in the low-volume Futures.  Oil (/CL) is at $78.61 and I'm liking them short again below the $78.50 line with tight stops above but I'd rather see us go up to $80 first as that would be a fantastic short, lined up with $85 on Brent (/BZ), which is currently at $82.50 – I just don't think we're going to make it.  

Oil is at a 7-year high as OPEC wrapped up their meeting yesterday sticking with their slow, steady, 400,000 barrels per day increase in production for November, shrugging off pressure to move faster as oil markets around the World tighten up and supplies in Europe run short.  Europe is the wild-card as a natural gas shortage has caused more industrials to switch to oil and that's the only reason demand is up – nothing to do with an overall increase in demand which GS and other Manipulators are claiming is giving us a new paradigm.  

Stock price graphsUS Oil Stocks have bottomed out at 420Mb, at the same time as they bottom out every year and we're still inside the 5-year average, which has been greatly exaggerated to the upside due to last year's shut-down and is now exaggerated to the downside due to hurricanes, OPEC's supply cut and the spike in Natural Gas causing oil to be used as an alternative by energy producers who can.  

Not only that but US production has not come back yet as we're currently producing an average of 11.12Mbd in 2021 vs 12.3Mbd in 2019 so that's 1.2Mbd or 8.4Mb less EVERY WEEK of US production – THAT is why our stocks are down 80M barrels from last year's level – because we produced 336M barrels LESS US oil than we did in the first 40 weeks of 2019 – NOT because of OPEC and NOT because of a surge in demand.

Since we are capable of producing 436M more barrels in a year and OPEC is capable of producting over 1 BILLION more barrels per year (by simply turning on the taps) THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF OIL so how can you say demand is outstripping supply when supply is artificially constrained?  

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021 - Today in  Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

That's why the Oil Futures for next July are still at $73, just 10% above it's usual peak at $68, even though the current price of oil is now 30% above the August lows ($60).  Not only that but look at all the car companies who are announcing electric fleets, not to mention the Global crack-down on carbon emissions that is even happening in China and India and, dare we say it? – for the first time in 4 years – EVEN IN THE USA!  

The Very Real Possibility Of Peak Oil Supply | OilPrice.comOPEC and Goldman Sachs are just trying to squeeze you for the last of their oil profits while they can because demand peaked in 2019 and is not likely to ever get back to that level because every electic car that is sold uses 15 less barrels than the 25 mpg car it replaces.  75M cars are sold each year and, in 10 years, they will be almost all electric – at which point the use of gasoline will drop by 1Bn barrels each year until we have an all-electic fleet in roughly 2045.

10Bn less barrels of gasoline per year is 27M barrels per day or about 1/4 of current global consumption gone in 20 years.  It will be a slow burn for the first 10 years bit. after that, nothing but pain for the oil industry as autos aren't the only place where oil consumption will be sharply reduced.  That is the future of oil – not record demand as the idiots from Goldman Sachs would have you believe.  

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Morning! With the spike in natural gas do we have a play in KOLD or BOIL for when things calm down a bit? Possibly early November?


  2. Good morning!  

    Just have to sit back and see if we bounce all that matters for now is /ES.  As you know, I'm not expecting us to make it.

       

    /NG/'s gone wild – over $6!:

        

    /NG/Pman – Big short squeeze here and Europe has a serious shortage.  I think it's too high but way too dangerous to play.  

    Notice /NG retraced properly from $4 to $5.50 was $1.50 and retraces were 0.30 to $5.20 and $4.90 and now to $6 but a consolidation point at $5.50 (the prior high) so this is a solidly strong move up on lots of volume.

    Speaking of volume, SPY over 120M is our benchmark for where we're likely to have a bad day:

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Oct 05, 2021 433.00 431.04 429.39 430.13 430.13 7,731,292
    Oct 04, 2021 433.00 433.96 426.36 428.64 428.64 128,430,500
    Oct 01, 2021 430.98 436.03 427.23 434.24 434.24 129,240,100
    Sep 30, 2021 436.02 436.77 428.78 429.14 429.14 140,181,200
    Sep 29, 2021 435.19 437.04 433.85 434.45 434.45 82,329,200
    Sep 28, 2021 439.69 440.04 432.94 433.72 433.72 130,436,300
    Sep 27, 2021 442.81 444.05 441.90 442.64 442.64 61,371,100
    Sep 24, 2021 441.44 444.67 441.21 443.91 443.91 62,094,800
    Sep 23, 2021 439.85 444.89 439.60 443.18 443.18 76,396,000

  3. Good Morning.


  4. Ooh, a new conspiracy to keep us distracted!  

    China PCR Testing Purchases Spiked in Months Before First Known Covid Cases, Firm Says. The Chinese province that was the initial epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak made significant purchases of equipment used to test for infectious diseases months before Beijing notified international authorities of the emergence of a new coronavirus, according to research by a cybersecurity company. The province’s purchase of polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, testing equipment, which allows scientists to amplify DNA samples to test for infectious disease or other genetic material, shot upward in 2019, with most of the increase coming in the second half of the year, the Australian-U.S. firm Internet 2.0 found

    And you know Internet 2.0 has all the top people, right?  This was the headline in Bloomberg – fact-checking be damned.  

    When a group of international media organisations this week revealed details of a Chinese tech company’s vast database profiling millions of people around the globe, it was in no small part due to a small Australian cybersecurity firm established only last year.

    The Canberra-based firm, Internet 2.0, was co-founded by the cybersecurity expert Robert Potter, who was an adviser to the then Labor MP Gai Brodtmann when she was the shadow assistant minister for cybersecurity in Bill Shorten’s opposition. He later took a role with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade as a contractor.

     

    The company’s other co-founder, David Robinson, is a retired captain from the Australian Army Intelligence Corps who also describes himself as a “serial entrepreneur”. Their customers include the US and Australian governments.

    Potter said his firm was respected for its work on North Korea and China and a mutual friend introduced him to the US academic Christopher Balding, who was previously based in the Chinese city of Shenzhen.

    Balding has said he received the leaked materials from an individual who had put themselves at risk by providing the data – proof, he said, that many inside China were concerned about surveillance practices in the country.

    With some Australian-based analysts also questioning the significance of the leaked materials, Potter conceded that most of the data was based on material openly available on platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Crunchbase and LinkedIn.

    Asia Stocks to Drop on Risks From Inflation, China: Markets Wrap

    China’s Energy Crisis Has Villagers Questioning Its Climate Path

    Empty Buildings in China’s Provincial Cities Testify to Evergrande Debacle

    Christmas at Risk as Supply Chain ‘Disaster’ Only Gets Worse

    Broader Inflation Pressures Are Beginning to Show.

    California Oil Spill May Have Been Caused by Anchor Hitting Pipeline.

    Is It Flu or Covid-19? It’s Harder to Tell This Year

    GOP sen to introduce bill holding social media companies accountable for harm they cause children

    Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF deepens skid amid Monday’s tech-led stock-market slump.

    World's Largest Commodity Traders Face Massive Margin Calls As Global NatGas Arb Explodes.

    "Perfect Storm" – Global Energy Crisis Spreads To Brazil And India

    Cost Of Shipping Between China And U.S. Plunges… But For The Worst Possible Reason

    Stocks Haven't Done This Since The COVID-Crash In March 2020

    Taiwan Says It’s Preparing for War as China Sends a Record 52 Warplanes Into Taiwan Airspace




  5. The FB testimony has been brutal and a term was mentioned that we know well…

    "Morally Bankrupt"


  6. Red and Blue in agreement?….

     

    I would not be holding FB.


  7. Phil there you are you got your 4350 /es

    FB I do have it up 1k in my account. Possible Zuckeman lost some millions so what? 


  8. /CL got so close to $80! 

    At this point, I'm scaling in with stops around $80.25

    FB/1020 – Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    /ES/Yodi – On the button so far:

       

  9. 1020-I wouldn't be so fast on FB. Another witch hunt because alternately YOU control who is on your site. It is called "UNFRIENDING>" Anyways, FB had a marketplace that does billions in sales and does not charge fees to list or sell. Gee, I wonder who would not like that? Hmmm maybe Ebay, Etsy and the other online sellers who, at one time had viable selling and buying platforms until they both got so greedy, with their fees, that is hard to make a profit for sellers. Just started out fine with a win-win but not anymore. Postage fees are also another variable that is problematic not to mention the terrible service. So I am a cynic by nature. Follow the money. Just look at the Parma  now offering "boosters" when the original was supposed to take care everything. Right.


  10. Supposed to be PHARMA!


  11. Parma/Pirate – You had it right the first time, now I know what's for lunch!  :)

    https://parmacrown.com/



  12. The U.S. Can Lower Drug Prices Without Sacrificing Innovation


  13. 1029-Love the saltiness but we do not touch pork. Pigs are smarter than dogs-big brains. But we usually avoid meat period. Trying to stay healthy, trying the operative word.


  14. FB/Pirate – The fee they charge is your privacy – they sell it to the highest bidder.  No one is an altruist here.  Also, the vaccines we have are the best they could do as fast as they could – not the ultimate vaccine.  I never had that expectation anyway – they still can't permanently protect you against regular flu – why would they have a magical cure for Covid?  Big Pharma has a LOT of shortcomings – but this was the shining moment they came together and saved millions of lives.

    In fact, now that the MRK panic is over, MRNA is looking better.

    $331.45 is $131.5Bn and they are going to make $12.5Bn this year and the Covid vaccine is just the "proof of concept" for their process.  They just announced last month that they are working on a combination Covid/Flu vaccine for next year – that should be popular and there is TeenCove and KidCove in testing for rollouts.  

    Moderna's system will allow them to create and release flu vaccines closer to the need date and that shorter window means it will be better-tailored to whatever strains are hitting us during the season (there's a lot of guessing in the current system).  That's likely to make MRNA significantly more effective than traditional competitors.  

    They are also working on Zika vaccines and Cancer vaccines and even vaccines that stimulate heart tissue regeneration, which is already in phase 2a.  All good stuff but the bears on Moderna say that Covid is over and they vaccine will no longer sell.  That's nonsense, of course.  

    In the LTP, we can sell 5 of the MRNA 2024 $200 puts for $25 and that's $12,500 we get paid to keep an eye on them and, worst-case, we get a net $175 entry -47% off the current price.  Not a bad worst case!  


  15. Back to the above – we have seen that it cost us $10Tn of GDP NOT to be vaccinated so, even if the vaccine is $50/dose x 300M people, that's $15Bn to avoid a $10,000Bn disaster.  I think the Government will show an abundance of caution moving forward…


    • Wells Fargo keeps an Overweight rating on Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG +2.8%) after meeting with management.
    • A crucial pullout from the meeting is that supply chain challenges are a non-factor for Signet.
    • "SIG is one of the few companies in our universe where supply chain disruptions are not having a material impact on the company's business. The company has no exposure to Vietnam, placed orders early with vendors (over half of holiday inventory already on-hand), has less reliance on cargo ships for product transportation (avoiding port delays) and has partially vertically integrated supply chain."
    • Other positive factors called out on SIG are that banner differentiation is helping the retailer add market share and the overall slowdown in the jewelry category is not expected to hit SIG as much as originally feared.
    • SIG is outperforming peers on the day and trades well above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages.

    • International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the broad global recovery is faced with risks ranging from a persistent divide in vaccinations to inflation and a colossal amount of debt.
    • These risks are most heavily pointed towards low-income countries and will likely persist in those economies for longer, she said at a virtual speech.
    • The fund expects gross domestic product to "moderate slightly" compared with its 6% expansion projection from July, she said. (Note that the IMF is scheduled to release a new forecast next week.)
    • "Risks and obstacles to a balanced global recovery have become even more pronounced," since the IMF's last World Economic Outlook in July.
    • As per inflation, Georgieva said price pressures should abate in most countries next year. But if inflation triggers a rapid increase in interest rates and tighter financial conditions, that would "pose a particular challenge for emerging and developing economies with high debt levels."
    • Earlier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said inflation could endure longer than expected, saying "prices could stay at a high level, but I don't expect them to be growing."
    • Some sovereign economies, including the U.S. — which is a developed economy — that are highly indebted include: Italy (NYSEARCA:EWI), Japan (NYSEARCA:EWJ) and Greece (NYSEARCA:GREK).
    • In August, the IMF made available reserves worth a total of $650B, the largest issuance in its history, to its members.
    • At the end of July, the IMF saw a gap between advanced and developing economies widening in the global recovery.
    • KraneShares debuted two new carbon-offset ETFs on Tuesday — the KraneShares California Carbon Allowance ETF (NYSE:KCCA) and the KraneShares European Carbon Allowance ETF (NYSE:KEUA).
    • KCCA provides targeted exposure to the California Carbon Allowances cap-and-trade carbon-allowance program, known as "CCA."
    • KEUA provides coverage to the European Union Allowances cap-and-trade carbon-allowance program, known as "EUA."
    • For investors unfamiliar with a cap-and-trade system, it's a program where a government puts a limit on the total carbon-pollution levels from an industry and diminishes that cap year after year to reach a pollution target.
    • KCCA tracks CCA futures contracts and KEUA tracks EUA futures contracts.
    • Both funds started trading Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange and come with a 0.79% expense ratio.
    • KCCA and KEUA are essentially regionalized offshoots of the KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (NYSEARCA:KRBN), which tracks the most traded carbon credit futures contracts.
    • KRBN has outperformed the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) by nearly fivefold, returning investors 72.5% YTD vs. 14.65% for SPY.
    • Launched in July 2020, KRBN has also returned 118.5% since its inception.
    • KRBN is also already approaching $1B assets under management despite its short lifetime.
    • Daily price action: KRBN +1.18%, and SPY +1.33%.
    • See below an interactive chart depicting the disparity between the returns of KRBN compared to SPY since KRBN's inception:

    • Visa (V +0.6%) is planning to change the way it processes some Apple (AAPL +1.9%) Pay transactions, as banks rebel against the fees they pay to Apple, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
    • Currently, banks pay a fee to Apple when their credit cardholders use Apple Pay. Under the new process, the banks wouldn't pay fees on automatic recurring payments such as streaming services or health club memberships after the first payment.
    • When the Apple Pay mobile wallet launched in 2014, banks such as Bank of America (BAC +2.3%), Capital One Financial (COF +2.0%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.1%) agreed to the fees on fears that they'd be left behind, the WSJ said.
    • Now they're pushing Visa to change the process, and the card network plans to make the change next year, some people familiar with the matter told the WSJ.
    • Still, that may not come to fruition as Visa and Apple are currently in talks, the newspaper said.
    • When the Apple Pay wallet debuted, the banks agreed to pay Apple 0.15% of each purchase made with credit cards issued by the banks, according to the article. Since then, customers' use of Apple Pay was slower than expected and in 2019, Apple teamed up with Goldman Sachs to launch its own credit card, creating friction between Apple and the banks.
    • In August, an Australian banking regulator said it will consider tightening regulations for digital wallets.
    • Financial stocks lead Tuesday's stock rally as a gauge of the services industry notched gains for the 16th month in a row.
    • With another data point reflecting a resilient economy, even with supply chain snags and elevated inflation, investors are betting that the Fed will start tapering soon. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans predicts that the central bank will complete its asset-purchase program by the middle of 2022 or in the Fall.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield advances 5 basis points to 1.53%, boding well for banks and other financial firms.
    • The optimism runs across most financial sectors, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLF) climbing 2.0% in midday trading. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KBE) gains 0.7%, and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE) rises 0.7%. SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSEARCA:KIE) rises 1.5%.
    • Banks (KBE) and insurers (KIE) climb during the session, while real estate (NYSEARCA:XLRE) slips as seen in chart below.
    • By name, Goldman Sachs (GS +3.4%) and Bank of America (BAC +2.6%) climb the most of the universal banks. In regional banks, PNC Financial (PNC +1.5%), US Bancorp (USB +1.3%), and Fifth Third (FITB +1.1%) are among the strongest gainers.
    • Custodial banks — Bank of New York Mellon (BK +2.9%), State Street (STT +2.7%), and Northern Trust (NTRS +2.5%) all gain more than 2%.
    • Insurance companies also push higher — Lincoln Financial (LNC +2.6%), Aegon (AEG +2.7%), Marsh & McLennan (MMC +2.3%), and Trisura Group (OTCPK:TRRSF +3.7%).
    • By contrast, with the higher interest rates, real estate stocks weaken. Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) slips 0.7%.
    • Earlier, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq extend gains in broad-based rally

    • 7-Eleven's (OTCPK:SVNDY +1.6%) former franchise partner Future Retail said it had mutually ended an agreement to operate the U.S. company's 24/7 convenience stores in India, as it would be unable to meet objectives for store openings and franchise payments.
    • During the COVID-19 pandemic, Future Retail reported a loss of $2.32M on its 7-Eleven store unit and failed to open any new stores. The company is also undergoing a legal battle with Amazon (AMZN +1.8%) as the company tries to sell its retail assets to billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries.
    • Future Retail said the conclusion of the deal would have no financial or business impact on the company.
    • Read an analysis of Seven & i by Seeking Alpha contributor Opal Investment Research after the company completed its acquisition of Speedway.
    • Best Buy (BBY +1.8%launches its annual membership program Totaltech nationwide following testing at select locations. One of the perks included in the program is access to high-demand, hard-to-find products during the holiday season.
    • The electronics retailer did not specify what items would be available to members, but did say that new members would get "exclusive access" to items and deals through Member Monday special events starting Oct 18.
    • Other services included for the $199.99 membership include free Geek Squad tech support, 2 year product protection on most purchases, and free 2-day shipping, delivery and installation.
    • Piper Sandler thinks Best Buy could add 3-7 million new members to its program and contribute to ~3% sales growth.
    • UBS tracks across sectors to find stocks with strong pricing power that are seen as poised to outperform even with the torrent of warnings on margin pressures running across the wires.
    • The firm says pricing power is an important theme for relative returns with surging shipping costs, rising raw materials, supply chain issues and accelerating wage growth all in the mix.
    • UBS' breakdown: "The theme should have further to run with Q3 earnings a key catalyst as: 1) strong pricing power stocks have outperformed weak ones by ~20% on avg the next 12mo after 6m CPI goes above 3% ann; 2) relative 2y fwd P/ Es are at a 7% discount vs the 10y avg; 3) analyst 12m fwd EBIT margin revisions have swung in favor of strong pricing power firms."
    • The UBS list of high conviction, strong pricing power stocks all have Buy ratings on them and price targets that rep double-digit upside.
    • Pricing power favorites: Nike (NYSE:NKE), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR), Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Danaher (NYSE:DHR), Teleflex (NYSE:TFX), Generac Holdings (NYSE:GNRC), TransDigm Group (NYSE:TDG), CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG).
    • Roger McNamee, a co-founder of Elevation Partners and an early investor in Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), argued Tuesday that the recent revelations about Facebook (FB) don't point to specific failings within the social-media giant but, instead, underline a corporate culture in the U.S. that emphasizes maximizing stockholder value at the expense of all other concerns.
    • Speaking to CNBC, McNamee, who has long been a critic of Facebook and has published a book detailing his issues with the company, called on authorities to "restore the balance between the rights of corporations and the rights of citizens."
    • McNamee's comments came as Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen began her testimony before a congressional committee. Over the weekend, she appeared on 60 Minutespresenting evidence that FB prioritized profits over user safety.
    • FB executives have pushed back against the charges, calling the allegations "blatantly false."
    • McNamee argued that Congress "has to do" something about online safety, privacy and antitrust related to Big Tech.
    • "The problem with Facebook is not just with Facebook. It's 'surveillance' capitalism. It's something that every major Internet platform uses and now, frankly, almost every large company in the economy has adopted some form of it," he said.
    • "The problem here isn't the things they do that's illegal. The problem here is the things they do that are legal," he added.
    • McNamee described FB as "the old guy trying to dress like a teenager," attempting to maintain high growth rates despite being a mature business.
    • However, he contended that the underlying issues with FB's corporate culture go deeper than a scramble for growth.
    • "This stuff has been there since the beginning," McNamee asserted.
    • The Elevation Partners founder warned that the fundamental issues facing FB have crept into the larger society as well, such as in the way AI is used for things like policing, mortgage lending and resume review.
    • "The question is: Is that the kind of society we want to live in?" he asked.
    • FB dropped sharply on Monday in the wake of the whistleblower revelations and a six-hour outage in its service. Tuesday saw a partial recovery, with the stock rising about 2% to $332.38 at around 11:30 AM ET.

    • PepsiCo (PEP +1.1%) CFO Hugh Johnston said on CNBC that he is expecting prices for the company's drink and snack products to rise early next year. “I expect we’ll probably see a little bit more pricing increases in the first quarter of next year as we deal with the fact that input costs are just higher,” said Johnston "That’s just the reality for us and everybody else.”
    • Prices for Pepsi's drinks have been rising this fall, and its snack prices are now beginning to climb. Competitors, including Coca-Cola (KO +0.5%) and Procter & Gamble (PG +0.8%) have also raised prices this summer due to input cost inflation and low inventories.
    • Generally, the food giants hedge prices through commodities and materials contracts, but those contracts can only help keep input costs low for about six to nine months until they expire. The contracts give time for companies to avoid sudden increases and slowly raise prices, often by nontraditional methods such as using smaller packages or offering fewer promotions.
    • Shares of Pepsi are up about 1% Tuesday after the company reported strong third quarter results.
    • Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, predicted Tuesday that the central bank would completely wind down its asset-purchase program by "the middle of 2022 or the fall."
    • In an interview with CNBC, Evans also acknowledged that the current inflationary period "could be longer than we were expecting. Absolutely, no doubt about it."
    • However, he repeated his view that price increases have largely been a result of supply bottlenecks brought on by the uneven reopening of the global economy following COVID.
    • As such, Evans expects prices to stop rising once the supply chain issues work their way out of the system.
    • "I'm comfortable thinking these are elevated prices that could be coming down as the supply bottlenecks are addressed," he said.
    • "I think [prices] could stay at a high level, but I don't expect them to be growing," he added.
    • Give this scenario, Evens contended that the current price increases weren't "really a monetary policy issue," but instead represented an "infrastructure, supply issue."
    • On the overall economic picture, Evans noted that the economy has made "good progress" towards the Fed's goal of full employment.
    • As a result, the Chicago Fed president projected that the unemployment rate will drop below 5% by the end of this year.
    • "We're close to the time when we're going to start adjusting our asset purchases," he said.
    • Asked about financial disclosures for central-bank officials, Evans said he supported Fed Chair Jerome Powell's request to review the rules following the resignations of two Fed regional bank presidents in the wake of revelations about their trading activity.
    • "We need to make sure we've got the public's trust, that there is no question about the information we have and the actions that we take," he said.
    • For a contrary view of inflation and monetary policy, see why former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian thinks the Fed could miss its "window to taper."

    • September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 61.9 vs. 60.0 consensus and 61.7 prior.
    • Business Activity Index at 62.3% vs. 60.1%; New Orders Index at 63.5% vs. 63.2%; Employment Index at 53.0% vs. 53.7%; Supplier Deliveries at 68.8% vs 69.6%.
    • According to the index, 17 services industries reported growth in September, with the composite number showing growth for the 16th straight month after a two-month contraction in April and May of 2020.
    • Still "ongoing challenges with labor, resources, logistics, and materials are affecting the continuity of supply," said Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute of Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee.
    • Earlier, Goods and services trade balance widens in August.
    • September U.S. PMI Composite Index (Final): 55.0 vs. 54.5 consensus and 55.4 prior.
    • This indicates a slower expansion in private sector business activity; rate of growth was the softest in a year amid slower upturns in both monitored sectors.
    • New business increased further during September, but the rate of expansion eased to the slowest in nine months; manufacturers and service providers alike registered softer upticks in client demand.

    • Services Index: 54.9 vs. 54.4 consensus, 55.1 prior
    • Output growth remained strong overall, despite softening to the slowest in nine months.
    • Service providers signaled a solid upturn in new business during September, as firms noted the acquisition of new clients and further customer demand supported sales.
    • Business expectations regarding the outlook for activity over the coming 12 months improved during September

    • TotalEnergies (TTE +2.5%) is seeking to sell a third of its 60% stake in the Laggan Tormore gas field in the U.K. North Sea for ~$300M, hoping the rally in natural gas prices will spark buyer interest, Reuters reports.
    • The field is located northwest of the Shetland Islands region, where several large oil and gas fields have been developed in recent years even as most other areas in the U.K. North Sea have seen production declines.
    • TotalEnergies tried in 2018 to sell a 20% stake in the Laggan Tormore field, which started production in February 2016 and can produce up to 90K boe/day, but the sale fell through.
    • Seeking Alpha contributor ASB Capital says TotalEnergies is "a better dividend income stock than Exxon, Chevron, BP and Shell."


  16. Well, we had the big boost at the open and flat since then, right at 4,350 so, technically, it's a successful day.

       

    SPY volume – 75.5M will finish below 100M is actually a fail.

       

    Funny how that 5% Rule tells you exactly where things will end up.


  17. When does KEUA start trading?