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Thursday Thrust – Limitless Debt Re-Energizes the Market

Message: “Limitless Love” from Joshua Johnson – Emmanuel Baptist ChurchNo more debt (ceiling)!

That's certainly worth celebrating and the indexes are up 1% pre-market and already popped half a point yesterday as word spread that the Republicans offered a short-term debt-limit extension – so the Government won't go Bankrupt until December!  That MUST mean it's party time in October, right?  

We are indeed partying like it's 1999 with the S&P 500 racing back to 4,400 but we'll see if it sticks, as what matters is where we finish the week.  We'll see if the Nasdaq can get back over 15,000 as well but a rally is a rally so we simply have to wait and see if this enthusiasm fades or not.  Keep in mind, the debt ceiling doesn’t authorize new spending, it only allows the Treasury to raise money to pay for expenses the government has previously authorized.  Is that really something to rally about – that we are able to pay our bills for two more months by borrowing more money?

The markets seem to think so:

  • S&P 4,550 to 4,300 was a 250-point drop so 50-point bounce lines are 4,350 (weak) and 4,400 (strong)
  • Dow 35,500 to 33,600 was a 2,000-point drop so the bounce lines are 34,000 (weak) and 34,400 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 15,700 to 14,740 was a 960-point drop so call it 200-point bounces to 14,940 (weak) and 15,140 (strong)
  • Russell 2,580 to 2,150 was a 430-point drop so 90-point bounces to 2,240 (weak) and 2,330 (strong) 

That's a big improvement for the week but still work to be done as we have only hit the strong bounce line on the Dow so far.  We'll see how things go tomorrow but extending the debt ceiling doesn't change anything fundamentally – we knew they'd end up borrowing more money somehow.

Also improving on the virus front is less than 2,000 people per day are dying this week and just over 100,000 people per day are getting infected – only 3M people per month!  While that still makes America about 4x worse than any other country on the planet, it's a lot better than it was last month so breath a sigh of relief (through a mask!).  One out of 4 people in the World catching Covid or dying from it are Americans – you've gotta be proud of that statistic, right?

Oil tested $75 early this morning but bounced right off that – it was also the $80 line on Brent (/BZ) – so it was obviously going to be bouncy (we cashed out yesterday at $77.50).  Natural Gas dropped $1 in one day and that's a $10,000 per contract swing on the /NG futures – that's why we don't mess around with /NG unless we are VERY confident!  

The Dollar is up 2.5% for the month of September so it's possible the market weakness is just a reaction to that and that's being caused by the general consensus that the Fed is going to tighten at some point and the Government will stop printing (as much) money – at some point.

Until that time, let's just sit back and enjoy the rally. 

 


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  1. Good Morning.



  2. Good morning



  3. Good morning. Here is the replay of yesterday's webinar.

    https://youtu.be/WMvTGqGZgcc


  4. Rally was relatively strong until employment numbers came in strong, could push rates further up, strain long duration equities like big tech. Have to see how it trades today. 


  5. Good morning!

    Unemployment/Bdon – I don't see strong employment as a big negative.   It's only a little better than expected. 

    • Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital (OTCPK:BRPHF), said Thursday that cryptocurrencies have "gone over the tipping point" in terms of public acceptance, part of the reason the company has teamed with Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) to create crypto ETFs.
    • In an interview with CNBC, Novogratz argued that the increased institutional acceptance has led to an influx of funds from money managers looking to add crypto to their portfolios.
    • "The amount of energy in our space is crazy right now," he said, noting that institutional demand has helped drive Bitcoin (BTC-USD) from levels below $42,000 back to near the $54,000 mark in less than two weeks.
    • "It's mostly just new participants and enthusiasm for the space," Novogratz added.
    • Novogratz's comments came as Galaxy Digital (OTCPK:BRPHFconfirmed reports from late last month that it will team with Invesco (IVZ) to create crypto-related ETFs.
    • Describing the current dynamics in the crypto market, the Galaxy Digital founder characterized Bitcoin as "digital gold," which he thinks will continue to take "more and more" of gold's market cap until it "gets to 100% over a few years."
    • Beyond Bitcoin, Novogratz sees another group of cryptos as vying for a "technology play," so-called "level one solutions" aiming to become central to the development of other blockchain applications.
    • Novogratz pointed to Ethereum (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) as major players in this part of the market.
    • He described the rest of the crypto space as "stuff built on top," where market dynamics more resemble a stock picker choosing among competing equity offerings to find the ones with the best prospects.
    • "It's not for the faint of heart because there's high volatility," Novogratz said.
    • "My advice would be: stay simple unless you have a whole lot of time and expertise to understand the difference between one coin and the next," he added.
    • Since reaching a near-term low at just above $40,000 on Sept. 21, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has significantly outpaced the major equity indices. It rose 35% over that period, compared to a near-flat performance from the S&P 500.
    • Meanwhile, Bitcoin managed to outstrip major crypto rivals like Ethereum (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD). However, these also far outpaced the equity market, each with gains of more than 20% over the past couple of weeks:

    • HanesBrand (NYSE:HBI) announces a 10-year licensing agreement to be one of the University of Texas' primary apparel partners. HanesBrands has already completed work on a new Champion shop experience at The Co-op in Austin and reported near record sales during the first college football gameday.
    • Texas joins the University of Georgia, University of North Carolina, University of South Carolina, The Ohio State University, and University of Cincinnati as primary apparel partners with HanesBrands. The agreement awards exclusive rights in the mass, campus and local channels through 2032.
    • Shares are up 2.24% pre-market.
    • Seeking Alpha contributor Aristofanis Papadatos believes that HanesBrands has promising growth prospects and a cheap valuation.
    • Bank of America's monthly dive into credit and debit card spending showed a notable increase in spending at daycare centers in September.
    • Spending at daycare was up 52% year-over-year from last year's level as school started again and was only 13% below the pre-pandemic mark in 2019.
    • Bank of America calls the trend an encouraging sign with reliable childcare seen as critical for the recovery of the labor force.
    • The trend could also be a positive for Bright Horizons Family Solutions (NYSE:BFAM).
    • United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) says it will fly its biggest domestic schedule since the start of the pandemic to meet expected surge in holiday travel demand.
    • The airline will offer over 3,500 daily domestic flights in December that translates 91% of capacity compared to 2019, with plans on connecting the Midwest to warm weather cities like Las Vegas and Orlando.
    • About 70 daily flights will be offered to ski destinations, including new service between Orange County and Aspen.
    • "We're seeing a lot of pent-up demand in our data and are offering a December schedule that centers on the two things people want most for the holidays: warm sunshine and fresh snow," says Ankit Gupta, vice president of network planning and scheduling at United.
    • The busiest travel days are estimated to be for Thanksgiving Nov. 24 and Nov. 28; and winter holiday travel Dec. 23 and Jan. 2.
    • Stock is up 1.60% in pre-market trading.
    • However, analysts' confidence fades in airlines stocks for the fall-winter recovery will progress as originally forecast and as the higher level of oil prices starts to factor into Q4 and 2022 estimates.
    • Earlier, United taps early adopter move in introducing PayPal QR codes for touch free inflight purchases.
    • Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is up 5% premarket, with other China tech ADRs following suit, as worries about the country's property sector recede and on some optimism on U.S.-China relations.
    • President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping plan to have a virtual summit this year.
    • U.S. tech stock strength late yesterday and overnight also helped techs in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is up 3%.
    • Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is gaining 3% before the bell, with DiDi (NYSE:DIDI) up 4% and NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) is rising 2%.
    • Fidelity says it is putting money back to work in China stocks after the recent spate of selling.
    • “There are companies that have seen good haircuts on their debt that are not justified,” Fidelity global CIO Andrew McCaffery said during a roundtable, according to Reuters.
    • “Lots are starting to present opportunity right now" after an "indiscriminate" selloff, he says.
    • Hong Kong looks undervalued, but sentiment around Evergrande is still uncertain, Kenny Wen of Everbright Sun Hung Kai said on CNBC.
    • “If you are relatively conservative, I would say you can take a wait-and-see approach, especially if you’re already holding 40%, 50% stocks,” Wen says.
    • “This level of volatility in the markets right now means there’s a lot of noise in price action,” Kyle Rodda, market analyst at IG Markets, told Bloomberg. “Zooming out, things still look a little ugly for the Hang Seng, even for the day to day rallies we are sometimes seeing.”
    • Charlie Munger nearly doubled down on Alibaba shares after the recent decline.

    • Grupo Aeromexico (OTCPK:GRPAQ) reports revenue per kilometers rose 138.8% Y/Y to 2.33B in September. YTD traffic grew 47.7% to 17.99B.
    • Domestic RPKs +43.7% Y/Y and international RPKs +313.3% Y/Y.
    • Capacity increased 95.5% Y/Y to 3.039B available seat kilometers. Domestic capacity +40% and international capacity +160.4%.
    • September load factor increased 1,300 bps to 77.53%.
    • Passengers transported up 91.2% Y/Y to 1.353M.
    • The company's shares have grown ~80% in past 5 days after it presented a restructuring plan to debtors as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy process in the United States.
    • During September, the company announced its new nonstop service between Tegucigalpa and Mexico City starting in December with three weekly flights.
    • The recent spike in energy prices and interest rates shouldn't deter investors from buying most of the equity dips, J.P. Morgan's global markets strategy team says.
    • S&P futures (SPX) (NYSEARCA:SPY) are pointing to a higher open this morning following a turnaround yesterday afternoon.
    • Strategist Marko Kolanovic has consistently called for investors to stay invested and recently advised investors buy the dip on the Evergrande selling.
    • And he says even with energy and supply chain issues, there's no reason now to change the advice to rotate equity exposure into cyclicals.
    • "We believe the recent pullback is an opportunity to buy the dip on cyclical assets – which would include all equities (EM and DM) apart from high-multiple growth sectors (e.g. Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ))," he writes in a note. "The reason for this is our view on intensifying energy issues, rising inflation and bond yields, and still extreme overweights in growth and tech stocks, and underweights in value and cyclical stocks."
    • "Our highest conviction ideas remain energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) (equities and commodity), materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) and financials (NYSEARCA:XLF), and reopening, COVID recovery, reflation and consumer (NYSEARCA:XLY) themes."
    • Current high oil prices (CL1:COM) (CO1:COM) (NYSEARCA:USO) won't have a significant negative impact on the economy, he adds.
    • "For instance, the economy and the consumer were functioning just fine in the period over 2010-2015, when oil averaged $100," Kolanovic says. "Adjusting for inflation, consumer balance sheets, total oil expenditures, wages, and prices of other assets (housing, stocks, etc.) we think even with oil at $130 or $150 equity markets and the economy could function well (with some rebalancing at capital rotation)."
    • As far as rates are concerned, the team still thinks a broad market selloff will only come if the 10-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT) exceeds 2.5%-3%.
    • One thing to keep an eye on is coal (XAL1:COM) (NYSEARCA:KOL), though, which may be the "proverbial canary in the coalmine," Kolanovic says.
    • "We believe that the evolution of coal prices might reflect supply, demand, cost of capital, and energy transitioning issues for all fossil fuels, and it would be certainly possible that oil prices will follow the same pattern (inflation adjusted for oil that would be in a $150-200/bbl range)."
    • Morgan Stanley says coal's recent rise shows how commodities have little margin of safety.
    • The early reaction from Wall Street is positive on the General Motors (NYSE:GM) Analyst Day reveals and updates, which was headlined by a plan for the automaker to double revenue to $280B by 2030.
    • Wedbush (Outperform): "We believe GM's financial targets are achievable and ultimately beatable as the company converts the vast majority of its customer base to EVs over the coming years. We believe by 2026 GM will be able to convert 20% of installed base to EVs which remains the key to our re-rating thesis as part of this renaissance of growth happening in Detroit with the green tidal wave."
    • Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks more positive news is on the way from GM this week as it further details the EV roadmap.
    • Bank of America (Buy rating): "In our view, the event was constructive, further illustrating GM as an industry leader in what we characterize as the Core to Future transition. With this in mind, we maintain our Buy rating on GM and believe the SOTP story may gain more traction."
    • Of note, BofA also highlights that GM talked about more than just the revenue targets and electrification plans at the investor event. The automaker outlined a number of new projects like OnStar, BrightDrop and GM Defense that have addressable markets ranging from $3B to $500B.
    • Shares of GM are up 0.98% premarket to $54.44 after dropping 0.76% yesterday.
    • Read more about the GM's (GMplans to be an EV leader.
    • The U.S. Justice Department forms a national cryptocurrency enforcement team (NCET) to investigate and prosecute criminal misuses of cryptocurrency and claw back the illicit proceeds from those crimes.
    • The team will particularly focus on crimes committed by virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services, and money laundering actors.
    • The team will also assist in tracing and recovery of assets lost to fraud and extortion, including cryptocurrency payments to ransomware groups.
    • "Today we are launching the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team to draw on the Department’s cyber and money laundering expertise to strengthen our capacity to dismantle the financial entities that enable criminal actors to flourish — and quite frankly to profit — from abusing cryptocurrency platforms," said Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco in a statement.
    • The new team will bring together the expertise of the DOJ Criminal Division's Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section, Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section, and other sections in the division, with experts detailed from U.S. Attorneys' Offices.
    • Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades at ~$54.1K on Thursday after touching as high as $55.6K on Wednesday.
    • In June, the DOJ recovered $2.3M in bitcoin from the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and in August, Poly Network retrieved the remaining assets from a $611Mcryptocurrency hack.
    • Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI) impresses Evercore ISI with a quarter that showed higher operating margin than the pre-pandemic level in 2019 even with inflation headwinds in place.
    • "Fears that supply chain bottlenecks and cost inflation would cause Levi's to miss sales and earnings expectations and lower guidance (a la NKE and BBBY) proved to be unfounded as the denim juggernaut grew sales 3% (vs. cons +1%), delivered a multi-decade high 14.8% EBIT margin, and raised guidance," notes analyst Omar Saad on the big report.
    • Evercore ISI keeps an Outperform rating on LEVI in place and price target of $40 (65% upside potential).
    • Shares of LEVI are up 4.17% premarket.
    • One of the conference call highlights was CEO Chip Bergh on the new Beyond Yoga brand set to bring in revenue for Levi Strauss (LEVI).
    • "I believe the combination of their category expertise, deep consumer understanding, and outstanding product with our expertise and capability and brand building, retail operations, men's and international, is a powerful combination that makes me confident we can meaningfully and profitably scale this brand for the long term."
    • Dig into the full Levi Strauss earnings call transcript.
    • It looks like the U.S. is going back to top-level engagement with China as President Biden and Xi Jinping agreed to hold a virtual summit this year. It will be part of an effort to manage competition between the two countries, but details of the gathering are still being worked out. Xi hasn't left China since the start of the pandemic and does not plan to attend any overseas events in the near future, including the G20, COP26 and APEC.
    • The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:FXI) is up 2.6% premarket on the news. Check out the ETF's performance over the past year.

    • Bigger picture: The meeting was brokered by Jake Sullivan, U.S. national security advisor, and Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign policy official. The two met in Zurich this week for talks that were described as "productive" compared to the gathering that took place in Anchorage back in March. Sullivan also raised concerns about a range of issues that have affected U.S. investment, including the crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and Chinese military activity around Taiwan.
    • Outlook: Trade will also be at the top of the agenda with China after comments from U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai earlier this week. She vowed to enforce Phase 1 of a trade deal in which Beijing pledged to buy at least $200B more U.S. goods and services over 2020 and 2021, compared to 2017. However, China had only reached 62% of that target as of August, based on export data compiled by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Tai also said there were "serious concerns" about the country's "state-centered and non-market trade practices," which were not addressed under the current framework.





  6. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he reached a deal with Republicans to defer a showdown over the debt ceiling until December, in the face of mounting concerns over a possible government default.22935 min ago 5 min read

    Asia’s junk-bond market suffered through another wave of selling, which pushed prices of many Chinese developers’ bonds further into distressed territory. 3 min read

    Fed governor Lael Brainard detailed how the central bank is preparing to beef up its assessment of growing threats from climate-related events, which could deliver unexpected shocks to the economy and markets.

    • Niels Jensen, managing partner and CIO of Absolute Return Partners, said in a letter to investors that "it is time to take inflation seriously," with the Federal Reserve entering "a high-risk" strategy to let inflation run hotter than it usually would in order to lower the amount of aggregate debt in the financial system.
    • Jensen described the Fed as "playing a rather hazardous game of chess" by delaying hawkish policy actions and letting inflation continue longer than it normally would, a move he warns could "backfire spectacularly."
    • The Absolute Return Partners CIO contended that the Fed's goal was to cut off a debt supercycle, which Jensen sees as "getting worryingly close to the end."
    • "Debt can be destroyed by inflation, and it is in that context you should look at various central banks’ reaction to the recent pick-up in inflation," he said in a fund letter released this week.
    • Looking at his concerns about inflation, Jensen argued that rapidly rising inflation expectations could entrench continually rising prices in the system and impact economic decision-making.
    • Rising wages and industrial commodity prices also worry Jensen, as these could contribute to higher inflation expectations and hurt the consumer.
    • "Take for example the sharp rise in gas prices all over the OECD at the moment, and imagine what impact that is going to have on consumers’ disposable income as we approach Christmas," he said.

    • Jefferies reports back from the huge Global Gaming Expo conference this week out of Las Vegas.
    • Analyst David Katz says digital strategies are a prominent theme across the gaming industry. The focus of suppliers is said to be on leveraging content from traditional slots and tables in digital formats for iGaming and Social. When factoring in overall accelerating demand trends, more M&A could be in the mix.
    • "We expect companies both large and small to remain active on both sides of digital M&A, as suppliers and operators focus on building competitive positioning and broader capabilities. From this perspective, we believe valuations are secondary to validated capabilities as the Street's focus shifts to technology and content from access to markets and customers. We therefore believe it is appropriate to continue more positively skewed ratings on both casino operators and equipment and technology providers."
    • Jefferies favors Caesars Entertainment (CZR +3.1%) and Everi Holdings (EVRI +3.6%) in the sector. Buy ratings are held in place by the firm on International Game Technology (IGT +1.8%), Scientific Games (SGMS +3.1%), Bally's (BALY -0.7%), Golden Entertainment (GDEN +5.9%), GAN Limited (GAN +3.6%) and Gambling.com (GAMB +1.6%) after taking in presentations and meetings at the expo.
    • See the list of top rated casino and gaming stocks.
    • The Global Gaming Expo was circled in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch as an event to track.
    • Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is wary about inflation risks and says it's time for the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy, he told Bloomberg at a virtual conference.
    • "I do worry that this will be ongoing inflation, and we could easily end up with 3.5% 10-year Treasuries, which again just increases the cost of the national debt and creates budget issues."
    • The 10-year UST yield gaps up 2.3% to 1.56% on Thursday, close to hitting a 4-month high if it can surpass 1.57% from Sept. 28.
    • Mnuchin primarily points to the risks of breaching the debt ceiling — lawmakers recently reached a deal for a short-term debt ceiling increase — and overspending by the Biden administration, though he still supports the bipartisan infrastructure bill, he told Bloomberg.
    • "We cannot let the U.S. default on its debt," and "there should be a discussion around what is the appropriate level of national debt and national spending," he said.
    • In mid-July, Steve Mnuchin said that the Fed should start cutting back its asset purchases.

  7. Phil:  I am sitting on 4000 shares of GM with an average cost of $60.00.  I know, I know….stupid.  But now with momentum I am looking for your thoughts on my next step.  Thought of replacing with a CALL spread and PUT sale or buying a protective PUT and selling a covered CALL but with IV spiking up a bit here I am not sure of the best move.  Thanks in advance.


  8. Hicket GM I did hold these shares at 5$ before they went bankrupt. I sold them to another sucker for 2.50. I would never buy shares from them again. For me they crooks. Leaving the people holding their old  useless shares,  and just starting with new shares.


  9. Phil/all, 

    Curious as to your investment/political thoughts on China's posture re Taiwan as it would affect our investments (BABA, etc) there. China seems to be increasingly belligerent sending greater numbers of planes into Taiwanese airspace with rhetoric to match. The fact that it seems a mite too bellicose makes me think it is more posturing than a prelude to military action, to perhaps gain a negotiating advantage in future talks with the rest of the world. In the past at least, an aggressor wouldn't announce its plans to invade to preserve the element of surprise, unless Xi is trying to gauge Biden's/ the Free World's response. Appreciate your thoughts.

    Thanks


  10. GM/Hicket – They are not even paying a dividend at the moment, are they?  What's your fantasy on $240,000 worth of GM, that they go to $80 and you have $320,000?  If you want to make $80,000 on GM, why not just sell 40 2024 $47 puts for $7 ($28,000) and buy 40 of the 2024 $45 ($18.30)/$65 ($9.50) bull call spreads at $8.80 ($35,200) for net $7,200 on the $80,000 spread that's $44,000 in the money to start.  Your upside potential at just $65 is $72,800 (1,011%) and your worst case is you are assigned 4,000 shares at $47 + $1.80 = $48.80, which is $8 (14%) below the current price.  So you are getting 14% downside protection for free and you make almost as much money at $65 as you would at $80 AND you can sell short calls along the way, like 10 Jan $60s for $2.50, collecting $2,500 in the first 106 of 834 days you have to sell.  You will knock off that $7,200 in no time – better than a dividend! 

    China/8800 – We are stuck with BABA but I'm not looking for new Chinese stocks at the moment.  I think the way they World let them just take over Hong Kong like they just did, miles ahead of schedule, has emboldened them in Taiwan and now they are seeing how far they can push things.


  11. How was the volume today – strong move confirmed? I'm leaning short heading into the weekend.


  12. Thank you Phil!  Brilliant!


  13. Volume/Pman – Lowest in a long time.  I think I agree with those shorts.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Oct 07, 2021 438.39 441.68 438.24 439.32 439.32 57,901,782
    Oct 06, 2021 429.27 435.12 427.54 434.90 434.90 112,612,900
    Oct 05, 2021 430.24 435.49 429.39 433.10 433.10 90,682,500
    Oct 04, 2021 433.00 433.96 426.36 428.64 428.64 128,570,000
    Oct 01, 2021 430.98 436.03 427.23 434.24 434.24 129,240,100
    Sep 30, 2021 436.02 436.77 428.78 429.14 429.14 140,181,200
    Sep 29, 2021 435.19 437.04 433.85 434.45 434.45 82,329,200
    Sep 28, 2021 439.69 440.04 432.94 433.72 433.72 130,436,300
    Sep 27, 2021 442.81 444.05 441.90 442.64 442.64 61,371,100
    Sep 24, 2021 441.44 444.67 441.21 443.91 443.91 62,094,800
    Sep 23, 2021 439.85 444.89 439.60 443.18 443.18 76,396,000
    Sep 22, 2021 436.05 440.03 433.75 437.86 437.86 102,350,100
    Sep 21, 2021 436.53 437.91 433.07 433.63 433.63 92,526,100
    Sep 20, 2021 434.88 436.56 428.86 434.04 434.04 166,445,500

    You're welcome Hicket.  

    LTP Value Change Today: $33,843

    STP Value Change Today:$-28,568

    Nothing to complain about.

    Hey, I'm going to see James Bond on Sunday – first time at the movies in 2 years!


  14. Hey have fun Phil! Worked food bank today. Many elderly, disabled getting some help.


  15. hi phil, 

    will you look to re short oil at wti 80