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Moderating Monday – Markets Bounce Back from Initial Omicron Panic

Schoolchildren Wait in Line for Immunization Shots at a Child Health Station in New York City, Circa 1946.How bad is this version of Covid?  

We don't really know yet but it seems to be more contagious but milder and that's actually a good thing in a VACCINATED population, as it promotes herd immunity (for those that don't die).  The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 ravaged the planet yet today Influenza is what keeps us out of work for a few days and yes, some people still die but in 1933, scientists isolated the Influenza virus and began testing shots on soldiers and college students and they rolled out the vaccine in 1936 and by 1945 it was required to attend school (friggin' Democrats, right?).  

We have learned to live with influenza and we'll have to learn to live with Covid too but, hopefully, we aren't going to take 37 years to immunize the population.  They had an excuse back then – they had to invent it!  Disposable syringes weren't even invented until the 50s so our parents in this picture are sharing their needles…

Anyway, 5 generations later the flu that killed 50M people (3% of the World's population at the time) now kills "just" 0.02%, 1/100th as many.  The question for investors, however is what will happen to this generation of humans as we become exposed to the new variant?  Yes, it's milder, but that doesn't mean we should run out and get it.  There's not enough data to make a firm decision but it doesn't seem like it's going to be a market-killer – we'll simply have the same weakened economy for a little bit longer. 

We can play these things strategically, of course.  I mentioned MRNA on Friday and they are up another 10% this morning as the company announced they are working on a vaccine booster for Omicron.  This is why we like them, they have proven their technology works, why did people dump them just because one flu had possibly run its course?  There's always another one and this is already case in point.  

BioNTech (who co-developed the PFE vaccine) is a similar company to MRNA and it's also popping, Yodi had the idea back on Nov 2nd and we turned it into a trade in our Live Member chat Room:

BNTX/Yodi – Hard to say whether or not they are a one-trick pony but one trick is all they need as we'll be getting Covid vaccines every year, it looks like.  They are not wasting this opportunity and are developing 20 more vaccines with potential to launch over the next 5 years.  They are also working on cancer therapies – obviously huge money IF they can get a winner.   Overall, BNTX is as likely as MRNA to succeed over the long haul and MRNA has a $136Bn valuation on $20Bn in sales with $12Bn in profit while BNTX gets less respect with a $66Bn valuation, $16Bn in sales and $9Bn in profits.  Since their burn rate in 2019 was only $279M, their cash ($8.5Bn) with another $18Bn coming means they will be able to work on whatever they want for quite a long time.   

So I think Yodi has found a worthwhile investment but, unfortunately, it's a pricey stock so it only fits in our LTP at $283.50.  In the LTP, let's:

  • Sell 5 BNTX 2024 $200 puts for $35 ($17,500) 
  • Buy 10 BNTX 2024 $300 calls at $80 ($80,000)
  • Sell 10 BNTX 2024 $400 calls at $54 ($54,000) 

That's net $8,500 on the $100,000 spread so you have to love the upside potential of $91,500 (1,076%) but we're not in the money – it's a speculative bet that they do find something else to sell over the next 12 months, otherwise our investing premise is dead.  So let's remember to keep an eye on these and hopefully Pharm will have some color commentary on the subject when he checks in.  

I'm pointing this out because, despite the move up, it's still good for a new trade as the net on the spread is still only $14,250 out of a potential $100,000 so there's still $85,750 (600%) more to gain, even if you missed the first $5,750 worth of gains our Members are already enjoying in their first month.  

Also, I don't know if you noticed it but people have been flying all year without any major incidents yet you can buy Delta Airlines (DAL) for $24Bn at $37.50 and Delta made almost $5Bn in 2019.  They lost $12.4Bn in 2020 and they are losing $3Bn this year but next year should be back to profits and, long-term, we're not going to stop flying – even if we all have to wear space suits on the plane.  

Let's take a poke at DAL in our Future is Now Portfolio:

  • Sell 5 DAL 2024 $40 puts for $10 ($5,000) 
  • Buy 20 DAL 2024 $40 calls for $8.40 ($16,800)
  • Sell 20 DAL 2024 $55 calls for $5 ($10,000) 

I'm being aggressive with the short puts because this trade will either begin working by Q1 or we're out anyway.  It's a $30,000 spread at net $1,800 so there's a $28,200 (1,566%) upside potential at $55.  Worst case is we're forced to own 500 shares of DAL at net $43.60 but we'll pull the plug long before that happens.

Powell is speaking tomorrow morning and I'm sure he'll tell us the Fed will do whatever it takes to make sure rich people don't suffer from Omicron.  We'll see the Beige Book on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll Report is out Friday morning, along with Factory Orders, PMI and ISM Services so lot's of info all week long:

And there are still plenty of companies reporting earnings, which should keep the Russell pretty volatile, though there are some large caps trickling in as well:

Image

Omicron ‘Pretty Mild’ So Far, South African Health Expert Says

Dutch Cluster Suggests Omicron Has a Foothold in Europe

More Countries Find Omicron Cases as Israel Shuts Borders

Markets Face Weeks of Uncertainty in Wait for Omicron Answers.

Black Friday store traffic down 28% from pre-Covid levels as Americans stay home

Virus Variant Sends Mideast Stocks Into Nosedive After Oil Slump

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is About to Get Worse as Winter Arrives

OPEC+ Likely to Be Cautious on Oil Demand at Meeting, Vitol Says

Yuan Surge Shows Traders’ Faith in Hands-Off Central Bank

Beijing Capitulates: Urges Local Govts To Unleash Debt Flood As Cities Begin Backstopping Property Developers

El-Erian Says Fed Should Recognize Inflation Isn’t Transitory

Massive inflation will likely push Fed to hike rates six times before 2024: Federated Hermes

Charting Global Economy: Latin America at Top of Inflation Wave. 

Christmas Tree Shortage Develops As Consumers May Pay Record Prices

Eurozone Inflation Likely Hit Record High in November

Traders Unwind Rate-Hike Bets as New Covid Fears Spread

Black Friday Rout Shows Dangers of Margin Borrowing

Iran, EU, China and Russia Meet in Vienna Ahead of Nuclear Talks

Airlines Avoid Thanksgiving Pitfalls as Daily Passengers Top Two Million

Best Buy stores in Minnesota looted, all get away.

California Apple store hit in latest smash-and-grab in broad daylight

Security guard killed protecting bystanders from looters as smash-and-grab crimes rage nationwide.

World Leaders Earn Poor Approval Scores In 2021

 


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  1. Good morning!

    • The UK's antitrust regulator is expected to block Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) planned $315M purchase of Giphy.
    • The UK's Competition and Markets Authority is expected to halt the transaction in the coming days, according to an FT report,  which cited people familiar.
    • In August the CMA said that Facebook's (FB) merger with Giphy would harm competition and remove a competitor from the display advertising market.
    • Facebook, now known as Meta,  announced its Giphy acquisition in May 2020. 

    VALE +1.70%Nov. 29, 2021 9:27 AM ET

    • Vale (NYSE:VALE) +1.9%BHP +1.7% and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) +0.9% pre-market after iron ore futures in Singapore jumped nearly 10% on optimism over restocking by China's steel mills.
    • Commodity prices also rebounded across the board from Friday's pandemic-driven losses.
    • "Iron ore demand fell to a three-year low at the start of this month. Now the expected resumption of steel output in December is affecting market sentiment and changing the market trend," according to Mysteel.
    • Prices on the Singapore Exchange surged as much as 9.6% to $105.50/ton, and iron ore on the Dalian commodity exchange rose 6.8%.
    • Vale has solid profitability and value indicators, but the Chinese downsizing of steel production has weighed on iron ore prices, limiting Vale's upside potential for the time being, Toni Nasr writes in an analysis posted on Seeking Alpha.

    ALL -0.25%Nov. 29, 2021 9:25 AM ET1 Comment

    • Allstate (NYSE:ALL) agrees to sell the majority of its headquarters campus in Northbrook, Illinois, for $232M to Dermody Properties, a move that reflects the shift to more of the insurer's employees working from home.
    • The sale will also lower Allstate's (ALL) real estate expenses and advance its multi-year Transformative Growth initiative "to increase property-liability market share by building a low-cost insurer with broad distribution," the company said.
    • The company will keep a significant presence in the Chicago area, including its existing office space in downtown Chicago.
    • In early October, Bloomberg reported that Allstate (ALL) planned to sell the Northbrook headquarters complex.

    TWTR +9.65%Nov. 29, 2021 9:22 AM ET9 Comments

    • Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) CEO Jack Dorsey is expected to step down, CNBC is reporting.
    • Shares are up 11% premarket.
    • Updated 9:26 a.m.: Shares in Square (NYSE:SQ), the other company where Dorsey is CEO, are up 1.7% premarket.
    • Developing story 

    Nov. 29, 2021 9:11 AM ET2 Comments

    • Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sees the Omicron as bullish for equities and bearish for the bond market, based on early data about the new COVID variant.
    • "A thought. While it is too early to have definitive data, early reported data suggest that the Omicron virus causes 'mild to moderate' symptoms (less severity) and is more transmissible," he wrote in a tweet on Sunday evening.
    • At that point, U.S. stock market futures were already starting to claw back some of the decline it experienced on Friday. In the last session of the holiday-shortened week, the Dow had fallen 2.5%, the S&P 500 dipped 2.3%, and the Nasdaq had lost 2.2%, on concerns about stricter travel restrictions and lockdowns.
    • Nasdaq futures are now up 1.2%, S&P futures +1.1%, and Dow futures +1.0%; 10-year Treasury yield jumps 7 basis points to 1.55%.  
    • Earlier, Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones futures climb as volatility drops, yields and oil rise


  2. Good Morning.


  3. PFE/Phil Would it make sense to roll out the short $50s to $60s for around $4.10?

    PFE '23 20 $30 ($7)

    PFE '23 – 20 $50 ($4.73)

    PFE '23 -10 $33p ($5.1)

    Thx.




  4. Phil / MELI – this is looking pretty interesting at this level – looking at selling some '24 $1150 puts for 220 – thoughts? 


  5. Phil – Any thoughts on BMY? The 2024 45-55 BCS with short 45 Puts is <0… expect $2 or higher dividend next year.


  6.  rn273  what difference does the dividend make if you ave buying a call spread?

    GILD was up last Friday and again today.  one of Phil's old table pounders 


  7. trying to figure out if I want to buy the BCS+short put or the stock with short straddle for dividends…


  8. PFE/Wing – Paying $4 for $10 in strike is not a bad idea but PFE is getting a pop off news so we don't know it will last.   I'd cash the long $30s at $24.50 ($49,000) and roll out to 50 2024 $45 ($13)/60 ($8.30) at net $4.70 ($23,500) and roll 10 of the 2023 $50s ($8.25) to 15 of the Feb $55s at $3.20 ($4,800) so you are taking net $20,700 off the table and hopefully the short calls expire worthless leaving you with a 1/5 cover on the $75,000 spread that's $50,000 in the money with $20,700 already in your pocket vs the current $40,000 spread. 

    MELI/Batman – 159x earnings?  If I want to massively overpay for an Amazon clone I think I'll stick with AMZN or take a discount and buy BABA at 14.5x.  

    BMY/RN – Well, the dividend doesn't help much for the spread but it does keep people in the stock.  I like BMY, good price at $125Bn as they've made $4.5Bn so far this year so figure $6Bn for 2021 makes $125Bn reasonable but I wouldn't pick them over PFE, MRNA or BNTX.  

    GILD is good but not on sale.


  9. Looks like weak bounces to me:

       

    When you have big drops like this, you are better off figuring out where the proper line is:

    • Dow 36,000 x .975 is 35,100 and we round that off to 35,000 so 1,000-point drop gives us 200-point bounces to 35,200 (weak) and 35,400.  Keep in mind 35,200 is VERY WEAK since it should have been 35,100 + 200.  Since we actually dropped to 34,700, 1,300 points gives us 260-pont bounces to 35,000 (see the rounding?) and 35,250 so, now we know 35,000 REALLY has to hold as it's the 2.5% line and the weak bounce off the actual drop.  The zone around 35,200 and 35,250 is going to be very critical and hard to break over as it's double-resistance but, if that is passed – 35,400 is the next proper test.
    • /ES 4,720 x 0.975 is 4,602 so 4,600 is our base and 120-point drop we'll call a 25-point bounce to 4,625 (weak) and 4,650 (strong) and you can see how the action fits the bill:

    • Nasdaq 16,600 x .975 is 16,185 so 16,200 is down 400 and we'll look for 100-point bounces to 16,300 and 16,400 (since the Nas is generally pushy anyway).
    • Russel 2,400 was the top and I'm making a judgment call that we're in a 10% correction to 2,160 so let's do the math and see if that's right.  That's 240 points down and we'll call it 2,150 so 50-point bounces to 2,200 and 2,250 so, if my theory is right, 2,250 should fail and we'll fail 2,200 on the way back to 2,150 and, if that happens – then the correction isn't over for the others either and we'll expect retests of their 2.5% lines.

  10. VALE halted with pending news. 


  11. Phil / MELI – They are in investment mode with north of 100% growth….

      I have '22 earnings at 6.8 with 2025 at about 28 ish…  They are PayPal, AMzn, and UPS for Latin America rolled into one…   The market potential is Huge and still early stages.

    Experienced management team, Cash flow in excess of earnings at about 6 / sh in 22 and growing faster than profits and revenue….


  12. Phil . Meli – looking back I would have to have bought AMZN in 12 years after they were founded at a split adjusted 30 / sh…..   


  13. I just put the trade ideas from the above post into a Top Trade Alert 

    STP up to $145,339 – up from $122,839 on Friday so that's nice.  

    LTP is $2,092,936 and that's down about $90,000 from 11/18 so down $90,000 in the LTP and up $55,000 in the STP is just about right.  Keep in mind the protection doesn't really kick in on a small dip like that but we can see the signs that our balance is good.  

    VALE/Jeddah – We only have the short puts.  Seems like they lowered production guidance by about 5%.   We sold 2024 $15 puts for $3 and they are at $12.43 now and the puts are $5.50  – I LOVE that play!     

    SAO PAULO, Nov 29 (Reuters) – Brazilian miner Vale SA said on Monday it expects its iron ore production to total 315 to 320 million tonnes in 2021, lowering the top range of its guidance from a previous estimate of 315 to 335 million tonnes.

    The company also said in a securities filing that its 2022 iron ore output is expected to reach 320 to 335 million tonnes. Vale added it sees its capital expenditure (capex) totaling $5.8 billion next year. (Reporting by Gabriel Araujo)

    In the LTP, let's sell 20 more VALE 2024 $15 puts for $5.50 as that's net $9.50 and let's buy 50 of the 2024 $10 calls for $3.45 ($17,250) and let's hold off on selling short calls.  If it does go lower, I'd be more inclined to spend $1 to roll down to the $8 and sell some $17s to pay for it.  

    MELI/Batman – Let me know when the profits start showing up and I'll be happy to look into it but I don't know enough about the market down there to be comfortable.  


  14. Phil / MELI – Profits are showing up

     profits were 1.37 / sh in the latest earnings…..   which sets them up for about a 3.5 / sh FY '21….  


  15. Wow, Nas plowing up 400 points.  Friday never happened:

    This market is just incredible.


  16. PFE/Phil Thanks for those ideas. Can't find the '24 $60 calls at $8.3, I show high trade for the day at $6.75 for them, now $5.8? Would that change anything?


  17. wingwalker,

    PFE went from 55 down to 53.50 obviously options change as well


  18. batman, MELI, The best I would possible risk is a Jan 24 vertical 800/700 put for about 3K / option. Unstable countries, sure they all have to eat.


  19. PFE/Wing – That's off by a lot, not sure why.  The $45s are now $12 and the $60s are $6 so net $6 is not terrible.  The $40s are $14.50 and the $55s are $7.50 so net $9 is too much to go lower and the $50s are $10 and the $65s are $4.65 so $5.35 but the $45/60s are still most attractive.

    FRO -0.74%Nov. 29, 2021 9:05 AM ET1 Comment

    • Frontline (NYSE:FRO) -3% after reporting a larger than expected Q3 net loss and revenues that were lower than the prior year, as the quarter remained "a challenging period" for tanker owners.
    • The company says spot time charter equivalents for VLCCs, Suezmax tankers and LR2 tankers in Q3 were $10.5K, $7.9K and $10.7K per day, respectively.
    • For Q4, Frontline estimates spot TCE on a load-to discharge basis of $21.6K contracted for 79% of vessel days for VLCCs, $17.9K contracted for 72% of vessel days for Suezmax tankers, and $16K contracted for 64% of vessel days for LR2 tankers.
    • The company's TCEs in Q4 2020 were $54.4K for VLCCs, $35.6K for Suezmax and $23.4K for LR2 tankers.
    • "Global oil demand rose, but oil supply growth remained muted, resulting in one of the most demanding quarters on record for tankers," CEO Lars Barstad says.
    • Frontline shares have gained ~9% YTD but lost 30% since a mid-October peak.

    CO1:COM +1.49%Nov. 29, 2021 8:09 AM ET2 Comments

    • During thin holiday trading Friday, Oil prices (CL1:COM) posted their worst one-day drop since WTI turned negative in April 2020
    • In response to Covid variant news and associated travel bans, OPEC+ is likely to postpone its Technical Meeting until Wednesday of this week, to provide the organization with more time to understand the Omicron variant's demand impact
    • Early public reactions from OPEC+ members appear sanguine about the impact from Omicron, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz indicating he is "not worried" about Omicron and the Kremlin indicating that the market's reaction to Omicron is "emotional and not based on scientific data"
    • The OPEC+ December 2nd Policy meeting is scheduled to go ahead as planned, with Saudi's energy minister declining comment on policy direction ahead of the meeting, even as market participants have speculated on a change of course from OPEC+ following the coordinated SPR release earlier this month
    • While OPEC+ deliberates, the market is wasting no time digesting Omicron news flow, with Dr. Fauci indicating Americans need to be ready to do "anything and everything" to fight Omicron, and prominent investor Bill Ackman tweeting that the Omicron's high transmissibility and low severity could be bullish
    • Adding to the week's catalyst calendar in oil, the JPCOA is reconvening in Vienna to kick off another round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, and though expectations are muted following a new hardline government in Tehran, the meeting remains a focus as the US administration has been increasingly vocal about OPEC+ supply
    • Following the selloff Friday, J.P. Morgan's commodity team out over the weekend with a new medium-term crude price outlook; $125 Brent oil price in 2022 and $150 in 2023, as OPEC spare capacity is likely to fall to a 25 year low on underinvestment and sustained demand growth
    • Brent oil prices (CO1:COM) are up ~5% ahead of the US Equity open Monday, suggesting the market is confident in OPEC+ and their ability to stabilize recent volatility

    BABA -1.25%Nov. 29, 2021 7:23 AM ET24 Comments

    • Goldman Sachs is lowering Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock to Buy from Conviction Buy as the company boosts spending.
    • Analyst Piyush Mubayi is cutting the price target to $215 per share from $252.
    • The stock is slightly lower in premarket trading.
    • "At the time when retail spending slows down and competitive intensity levels up, BABA has been increasing investments to 1) acquire new users, 2) build multiple traffic sources, and 3) raise merchant subsidies in the shorter term," Mubayi writes in a note.
    • "We expect revenue growth (ex. SunArt) to decelerate to 13%/16% in 3QFY22E/4QFY22E, with CMR revenue growth in 2HFY22E 3.3% yoy vs. 3.4% in 2QFY22. The lower CMR monetization rate and stepped-up strategic investments will drag profitability over the next 2 quarters before growth recovers in FY23E, when both revenue/earnings grow >20%."
    • But Goldman still expects the company to continue "aggressive buybacks."
    • Last week Warburg cut its valuation of Ant Group.

    WYNMF -7.49%Nov. 29, 2021 6:51 AM ET2 Comments

    • There is another negative development in the Macau sector for investors to weigh after Suncity Group (OTCPK:SCGHF) Chairman Alvin Chau was accused by Chinese authorities of being a leading member of a cross-border gambling group that set up casinos on the Mainland. It is still unclear if the scope of the allegations will just affect Chau individually, Suncity as a group or even the entire junket industry.
    • Bank of America believes the news adds to concerns about the new Omicron variant and is likely to continue to drag on the already fragile sentiment in the Macau sector and create more volatility. Despite the near-term headwinds, BofA maintain its constructive view for the next 12 months as it points to upside from clarity on license renewals and improvement in the border situation
    • Trading on Suncity Group has been suspended in Hong Kong. Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF) fell 7.82%, Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF) peeled off 5.54% and Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY) was off 6.73%. In premarket trading in the U.S., Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO) is down 1.06%. Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) trades flat.
    • Casino stocks fell sharply on Friday on concerns over the new COVID strain.

    SPY +1.51%Nov. 29, 2021 5:30 AM ET3 Comments

    • The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is not cheap and will see a modest return in 2022, rising to 5,000 by year end, Jefferies' global strategy team says.
    • "The large cap FAANG+M still trade on aggressive multiples, however, the S&P 500 ex-FAANG+M trades on a PEG ratio close to one times," equity strategist Sean Darby and quant strategist Kenneth Chan write. "We expect yields to move up putting a cap on valuations."
    • Jefferies is modestly bullish on U.S. equities going into next year.
    • Looking to sector allocation, it boosts Healthcare and Real Estate, while it also sees resilient consumer spending as what sets the U.S. apart from its global peers.
    • Here are the sector views for 2022.
    • Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) - Modestly Bullish. "Rising Job vacancies, higher wages and a significant loosening in credit conditions has allowed the consumer to spend. Paradoxically, a lack of auto inventory and homes has held back consumption alongside the affordability of some of these items."
    • Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLP) - Modestly Bearish. "The sector enjoyed a decent earnings season … as sales surprised on the upside. The sector fell victim from falling earnings revisions and declining target price changes during the past quarter and this has meant it has been a relative loser versus the bulk of the S&P 500."
    • Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) - Bullish. Energy earnings revisions have been "extremely strong. The most stunning feature of the S&P Energy Sector is the generation of free cash flow. The US energy sector has offered the highest FCF and dividend yield of the S&P 500 with the best earnings momentum."
    • Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) - Bullish. The sector was upgraded in early September. "Any shift upwards in the US yield curve would favor the US banks. We expect government and central bank surveys through Q3 to show that loan data had turned upwards."
    • Healthcare (NYSEARCA:XLV) - Bullish. The defensive sector "ought to shine as producer prices roll-over and as economic surprises decelerate. Post-Covid-19 tailwinds will help revenues into 2022. The sector is inexpensive while profitability is improving – ROEs are near their highs."
    • Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) - Bullish. Difficulties in revenue have "resurfaced at the bottom line with lackluster earnings growth and a ‘pushing out’ of growth estimates … high FCF yield has reduced any potential drawdown pressures. We remain nervously bullish on the S&P 500 industrials."
    • Information Technology (NYSEARCA:XLK) - Modestly Bearish. "There has been a feeling of ‘Tall Trees don’t grow to the sky’ for our universe of IT companies for some time," while "the difficulty is deciphering whether the lead indicators are falling and earnings revisions are softening simply due to the lack of available capacity. We would still edge towards the semiconductor companies over hardware whilst keeping an eye on utilization rates and IT new orders for a downdraft for the overall group."
    • Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) - Modestly Bullish. "The fact that supply has proved inelastic has forced a melt-up in prices. Fiscal programs home and abroad have overlaid resilient pricing power from unfashionable sectors such as paper/packaging and building materials."
    • Real Estate (NYSEARCA:XLRE) - Modestly Bullish. "Conventional wisdom would suggest that higher US interest rates would inhibit real estate performance. This relationship holds but to some extent is being offset by our own analysis which has highlighted a unique period of record-high business formation and strong servic  prices."
    • Communication Services (NYSEARCA:XLC) - Bearish. XLC "has enjoyed a good pandemic but the nature of the business model and ongoing competition means the addition of new subscribers or ‘eyeballs’ needs to be accompanied by ever increasing amounts of new content."
    • Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) - Bearish. "After a period of solid equity returns, the earnings picture has become cloudier – margin pressures, delays in orders being delivered and idiosyncratic policy risk China have forecasts in no-man’s land after the best ever results in 2Q21."
    • BofA is getting market flashbacks to the year 2000.


  20. So Jeffries is bearish on XLC, but has a target of $440 on FB, $3,325 on GOOG, $1,000 on charter communications, buy rating on NFLX – the 4 of which comprise >55% of the ETF… pretty sure if I look at the remaining components, they will be bullish on >80% of all holdings. 


  21. Phil – When are you looking to announce the trade of the year?