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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 4,800 Edition

Seems a little high, doesn't it?

We're so close to 5,000, we might as well get there as, clearly, the numbers are meaningless.  We've discussed how trading the S&P 500 at 40 x earnings is ridiculous but it's still happening so get used to the "new normal", I guess.  Of course it all comes down to risk vs. reward and there's just as much RISK in a 10-year bond that pays you 1.666% as there is in a stock that pays a 3% dividend so of course buy the stock.

See the multiples don't matter when the underlying returns don't match up.  Usually you can get 4-5% on bonds and they are considered very safe but, in a rising rate environment, the interest paid on the bonds may not keep up with inflation and you end up losing money – in steady Dollar terms.  Stocks, on the other hand, usually inflate with everything else so you keep up on the investment side and, if they are paying more dividends than a bond does interest – well then it's a pretty easy choice.  

At PSW, we have a Dividend Portfolio which we reviewed for our Members on December 23rd and we only made 2 adjustments (closing out PFE and gettting more aggressive on DOW), as it's a very low-touch portfolio and, if we're doing it right, it shouldn't need to be touched as it's a very conservative portfolio.  Generally we aim to make 30-40% a year and we started this one on 10/25/19 with $200,000 and we're up to $408,432 (up 104.2%) so far – a bit ahead of schedule.  

Let's look at what we expect out of this portfolio, which is still conservatively 45% in CASH!!

  • GLD – We expect the puts to expire worthless and we'll collect $1,313.
  • VIAC – We expect the short puts to expire worthless and we'll collect $2,275.
  • ET – We will get called away at $5 and collect net $10,000.  The stock pays an 0.61 dividend so instead we can double down on the stock, spending $17,840 for 2,000 more shares and we'll sell 20 2024 $7 puts for $1.35 ($2,700) and we'll roll the 20 short Jan $5 calls at $3.95 ($7,900) to 40 short 2024 $7 calls at $2.60 ($10,400) so we're spending net $12,640 and now we get called away in 2024 at $28,000 instead of $10,000 now and, while we wait, we collect $2,440/yr in dividends.  Our total expected profits are ($28,000 + $4,880) – $22,640 = $10,420 (46%) over 2 years.  

  • KHC – On track for the full $35,000 and currently net $30,135 and we will collect $3,200 in dividends (2 years) and sell more puts and calls when these expire (1 year) but let's conservatively call it $8,065 (26.7%) expected.  
  • LYB – Over target already so we expect the full $45,000 and currently net $36,355 so $8,645 + $4,520 in dividends is $13,165 (36.2%) plus more from new puts and calls we sell.  

Keep in mind, by the way, that these expections are from maturing trades – our cost basis is actually quite a bit lower, we're including profits to date in the current price so, of course they seem a little tame.  The main point is we started with $200,000 2 years ago and these are our current forward expectations.  This kind of planning works well for retirement portfolios.  

  • MO – Was a Trade of the Year runnner-up last month so we know we like them.  A bit over our target with the short puts and calls expiring with nice profits is perfect for us.  In this case we can see we haven't touched this trade at all in two years and we started with net $17,250 and we collected $3,600 (20.8%) and, if we let ourselves get called away at $47.50 ($23,750), we'd close out with a net profit of $10,100 (58.5%) but instead we're going to take the Jan $47.50 calls at $1.75 ($875) and roll them to the 2024 $50 calls at $4.50 ($2,250) and we'll sell 5 of the 2024 $45 puts for $6 ($3,000) so we're lowered our basis to $12,000 and we'll collect another $3,600 (30%) in dividends and get called away at $25,000 for a $15,600 (130%) total profit from our actual start.
  • As noted above, we count the current net of $23,624, then we sell the puts and calls for net (because of the roll) $4,377 and we'll still collect $3,600 in dividends so the basis will be net $15,647 with $15,600 (99.7%) expected.  

  • NLY – Another one we'll want to keep but essentially on track at net $12,355 with a whopping $3,520 (28.5% over 2 years) in dividends to be collected while we wait to be called away for $14,000 so $5,165 (41.8% upside potential).  Again, keep in mind we will roll the calls, hopefully to a higher strike and sell more puts so it gets better next January but we're keeping it simple and only counting what's on the table now.

  • TWO – Another fun REIT.  This one is underperforming at net $6,015 but what do we care as long as they keep paying their 0.17 ($340) quarterly dividend?  That's 5% PER QUARTER while we wait!   We're aggressive here with 30 short puts and only a 1/2 cover – waiting for a recovery.  Let's assume we're all called away at $7 and that's $14,000 + $2,720 in dividends into 2024 for an upside potential of $10,705 (177%).  Eventually we'll cover the remaining 1,000 shares and roll the short puts – which will bring in even more money!  

  • VTRS – Right on track for $30,000 and currently net $22,090 and $1,760 in dividends is $9,670 (43.7%) in upside potential

  • DOW – Just got more aggressive with them, buying back the short calls. Too soon to cover them so have to speculate here that we WILL sell the 2024 $65 calls, which are now $6.50 with an 0.42 Delta, for $8 ($4,000) which brings our "current" net down to $15,417 on the $32,500 spread plus $2,800 in rock-solid dividends gives us $19,883 (129%) of upside potential.  

  • FRO – Coming back a bit and we're aggressive on these.  Contracts only go out a year so let's say we sell the 2023 $7 calls (now $1.65) for $2.50 ($5,000).  That would knock our net down to $6,650 so called away at $14,000 has a $7,350 upside potential and they currently don't pay dividends – but I think they will restart, which is why they are here.   People don't understand that, if they don't pay the dividend – they'll start piling up cash and look even more attractive.

  • PETS – Also aggressive at net $22,320 and I'd like to sell 2024 $35 calls, now $3.30 with an 0.38 Delta for about $6 ($6,000) at $32.50 and that would drop our net to $16,320 called away at $35,000 + $2,400 in dividends is $21,080 (129%) upside potential

  • T – I was so tempted to buy more at $22 but we already had $50,000 worth.  Sad now.  Current net is $34,780 and called away at $27 would be $54,000 plus $4,160 of the most reliable dividends on the planet oops, and we're only half covered so hopefully we'll collect another $2,000 selling the 2024 $30s (now $1.40) and that would be $25,380 (73%) upside potential at $30.  

So we have a total of $150,071 of upside potential and plenty of CASH!!! in hand to add new trades so we're right where we want to be starting the new year.  See how 13 very boring, low-risk trades can add up to fantastic returns – without all that stressful, constant trading…  

This is supposed to be fun, not a job! 

 


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  1. Phil/rates – The increase in rates is likely to increase defaults given the plethora of levered companies out there due to the extended period of easy credit. The inflation rate should also ultimately be impounded into credit spreads as well. The result may be that we end up with higher rates than expected for bonds/loans. This may pull some money out of the market especially given the extended bull run, demographics, and retirements. I'm hoping this gives us better entry points in stocks.


  2. T at 26 riding up for the div. tomorrow.


  3. GM! 

    LQDA…now above 1020…. sell. :)

    UTH is the ONLY player so far in the game (inhaled treprostinil), and they are working on an oral prostanoid (ralinepag licensed from ARNA), but some patients will take the inhaled, and LQDA will take a big chunk of the space. Treprostinil made almost $1B in 2021….LQDA's market cap is $350M!


  4. I am going to sell the Jul 7.5 Cs against 1/2 of my stock holding (LQDA), but I am also going to buy the April $10s JIC someone wants to pay a premium. LQDA only has this one product to get to market, but they technology by which they can get drugs into the body via inhalation is quite interesting.


  5. Good Morning!


  6. Phil / BABA – this is a big deal – Munger is pretty tight with one of  the top China Fund managers in the world, and has a big stake in BYD as well….    Maybe this puts a bottom in and provides some strength in the stock…  300K shares to 600K shares in the last Quarter to Dec 4.

    Charlie Munger boosts Alibaba stake, purchases another 300K shares

    https://fintel.io/i13f/daily-journal/2021-12-31-0

    Charlie Munger boosts Alibaba stake, purchases another 300K shares

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.ABRK.B) Vice Chairman Charlie Munger has boosted his personal stake in Chinese internet giant Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), buying an additional 300,000 shares, according to the most recent 13F filing.

    In October, Munger and an investment firm he chairs, known as Daily Journal, started buying shares of the battered Chinese e-commerce giant, while the market continued to punish the tech company.

    Over the past year, Alibaba (BABA) shares have declined more than 47% on concerns that the Chinese government was cracking down over the power that it, along with other Chinese tech firms, possess.

    Alibaba (BABA) shares have continued that drop into the new year, as data showing a conversion of ADRs into Hong Kong shares have accelerated in recent days.

    Last month, an op-ed posted in the influential Chinese website, Global Times, widely considered to be one of the main voices for the Chinese Communist Party, suggested that Alibaba (BABA) may emerge from the "dark woods" in 2022.


  7. Pharm/LQDA  Give it a couple of days above 6 and I'll buy. If I miss a move, so be it. They'll always come home… :)


  8. Phil

    Where do you see XLE topping at

    Or OIL

    Thank You


  9. Inflation = high oil.  Never…..going….back.


  10. Good morning!

    Defaults/Seer – Company debt is at record highs too.  Seems very unlikely the market doesn't pull back but I said that last year too.

    LQDA/Pharm – Flying now.

    BABA/Batman – Good point, you would think Munger has the scoop.

    XLE/QC – Well I'm short /CL and down $3,000 on 3 contracts so adding 2 more at $78.25 and hoping this is the top, just over $60 on XLE at the moment but if oil stays over $70, it's very good for XLE – they are not directly connected.  

    Oil did not have a big draw considering the holidays:

    CL1:COM +1.19%Jan. 05, 2022 10:30 AM ET5 Comments


  11. So now 5 contracts short on /CL averaging $77.74 and I want to get back to 2 short even if possible.   Then I can relax with 2 short contracts at the higher basis.  

    /ES still 4 short at 4,788.9375 – that's where I'm pinning my big hopes. 

       

     

        

     

     

     


  12. They cancelled all the flights and people were stuck on the highway = no draw.  :P


  13. re oil-sinking today and right about 3.00 a gal in No Country. However it looks like demand may drop off a cliff if this mutated covid keeps hitting. Costco had gas at 2.88 yesterday. Today we are in full fledged blizzard and NOTHING is moving except one snowplow came down the road,.if you have sun please enjoy it! Very few people wearing masks in Duluth yesterday. However restaurant servers were, thankfully. We are up to a million infections a day and it just amazes me how nonchalant people are! Two years of this and now the repuckabans are blaming Biden??? Makes me furious thaT THIS WASN'T HANDLED CORRECTLY FROM THE START.


  14. LQDA CEO retired. Who did they bring in. The old President of ….. drum roll… UTH. So, who's up for a sale? 


  15. Do we have a webinar this afternoon? I missed it if it was cancelled





  16. Masks/Pirate  – The ones people wear are ineffective anyway.  It is truly amazing that we have apparently decided to just ignore this now:

    Hospitalizations is the orange line – we're already over 100% in lots of places.  

    Move along, nothing to see here….

    F -0.66%Jan. 05, 2022 10:21 AM ET5 Comments

    • Ford's (F -1.5%) U.S. total sales declines 17.1% December with trucks sales down 15.5% and SUVs -11.1% Y/Y during the month.
    • The Detroit automaker on Wednesday said it sold 173,740 vehicles during the month while it heads into the new year with strong electric vehicle momentum as customer deliveries for both the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit begin
    • Ford electrified vehicles finish the year strong with sales up 121.1% to 12,284 units during the month; Mustang Mach-E takes the spotlight with sales totalled 27,140 in 2021.
    • Sales by type: Cars, 4,664 (-66.8% Y/Y); SUVs, 77,377 (-11.1% Y/Y); and Trucks, 91,699 (-15.5% Y/Y).
    • However, the quarterly sales number show a sequential increase of 26.8% to 508,451 in Q4, when compared with Q3 2021.
    • The automaker's share of the retail SUV segment stood at an estimated 12% in Q4, up 3 percentage points over last year.
    • Full-Year Sales: Total U.S. sales for 2021 dropped 6.8% to 1,905,955 vehicles with SUVs sales +10.4% and Trucks -8.2% Y/Y.
    • "Ford finished the year strong, as the only U.S. automaker hitting the half million sales mark in the fourth quarter, making Ford America’s best-selling automaker. On the strong success of Mustang Mach-E, Ford jumped into second place in U.S. electric vehicle sales behind just Tesla. Last year was a foundational year for Ford in the electrified vehicle segment and this year we continue to expand, adding the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit to our electric vehicle lineup," says Andrew Frick, Vice President, Ford Sales U.S. and Canada.
    • The order tally for new vehicles sits at over 70,000 new vehicle orders in December that compares to 58,000 vehicles a year ago.
    • Also Read: How Toyota dethrones General Motors to become the No.1 automaker in America.
    •  
    • GM +0.11%Jan. 04, 2022 11:04 AM ET32 Comments

      • General Motors (GM +4.3%reports Q4 sales slipped 42.9% Y/Y to 440,745 vehicles due to semiconductor supply chain and low inventories issues.
      • Despite inventory pressure, the company reported Chevrolet Tahoe sales growth of 8%, Chevrolet Suburban +3%, Buick Envision +10%, Cadillac Escalade +2% and the Chevrolet Silverado MD+5% for the quarter.
      • For FY2021, the company delivered 2.2M vehicles, led by Cadillac Escalade sales growth of 65% Y/Y.
      • Enclave, Envision and Encore GX drove Buick sales up 10% Y/Y.
      • Fleet sales of full-size pickup trucks were up 10%.
      • Sales of GMC Yukon, Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban were up a combined 26%t to more than 238,000 vehicles.
      • The automaker expects economic growth in the U.S. and improving semiconductor availability to help drive U.S. total light industry sales from around 15M in 2021 to around 16M in 2022.
      • “In 2022, we plan to take advantage of the strong economy and anticipated improved semiconductor supplies to grow our sales and share. We will also further strengthen our industry leadership in trucks and begin our drive to EV leadership in North America with the rollouts of the GMC HUMMER EV, Cadillac LYRIQ and the reveals of the Chevrolet Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV", said Steve Carlisle, GM executive vice president and president, GM North America.
      •  
      • TM +0.73%Jan. 04, 2022 10:58 AM ET1 Comment

        • Toyota Motor (TM +5.0%reports a 30.2% Y/Y decline in December U.S. sales to 174,115 vehicles vs. -25.4% in November 2021.
        • Toyota division posted December U.S. sales of 150,072 vehicles, -29% Y/Y on a volume basis and Lexus division sales -37.1% Y/Y to 24,043 vehicles.
        • EPV December sales declined to 48,145 (-4.9% Y/Y).
        • SUV sales -20.8%, Sienna +7.6% and Pickup sales -41.5% for the month.
        • 2021 Sales: For calendar year 2021, Toyota Motor North America reported U.S. sales of 2,332,262 vehicles, +10.4% Y/Y.
        • With this, Toyota outsold General Motors (NYSE:GM) to take the spot of America's best selling car company in 2021 for the first time since 1931.
        • EPV sales totaled 583,697, +73.2% in 2021; SUV sales +11.3% to 933,243 for the year.
        • Latest, Toyota aims to develop and license software for next-gen vehicles

    • HMC +2.74%Jan. 04, 2022 12:07 PM ET

      • Honda (HMC +2.7%reports U.S. total sales fell 23% Y/Y to 105,068 units in December, but grew 8.9% to 1,466,630 units for FY2021.
      • Car sales -22.5 Y/Y and trucks sales -23.3% Y/Y for the month.
      • Car sales -2.2 Y/Y and trucks sales +16.6% Y/Y for the year.
      • Sales in the Honda division fell 22.2% Y/Y to 94,028 units in December: Cars -20.4% Y/Y and Trucks -23.2% Y/Y.
      • Acura sales for the month -29.4% Y/Y to 11,040 units: Cars -46.8% and Trucks -23.9%.
      • The company saw best-ever annual sales of electrified vehicles led by record sales of CR-V Hybrid over 56,000 units and Accord Hybrid over 28,500 units.

    •  
    • NSANY +5.97%Jan. 04, 2022 12:12 PM ET1 Comment

      • Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY +5.3%reported Q4 sales of 194,983 for U.S. which marks a 19.8% drop from prior year; CY21 sales stood at 977,639 units (+8.7% Y/Y).
      • In Q4, the new 2022 Frontier saw sales growth of 114.4% Y/Y while the all-new 2022 Nissan Pathfinder sales grew 12.5%.
      • Nissan Kicks and Nissan Armada reported sales growth of 12.4% and 94.8% respectively.
      • For FY21, Nissan Kicks (82,960 units) saw its best performing year since launching in June 2018.
      • Vehicles delivering more than 25% sales growth Y/Y include the Nissan Versa (26.2%), Sentra (35.1%), Nissan LEAF (48.9%), Nissan Kicks (40.9%), Rogue (25.3%) and Frontier (64.7%).

    SLQT -6.27%Jan. 05, 2022 10:07 AM ET

    • Small and midsize U.S. business leaders are feeling more optimistic at the start of 2022 than they did a year ago, not only on their prospects but on their industries, as well as local, national and global economies, according to the JPMorgan Chase 2022 Business Leaders Outlook Survey.
    • 83% of midsize and 71% of small businesses are optimistic about their own performance in 2022, up from 77% and 63% one year ago, respectively.
    • Almost seven in 10 (69%) of small business leaders report that they plan or need financing in 2022, up from 59% a year ago, with software systems and development being the greatest need (23%). Nearly half of small businesses plan to use business credit cards (48%), up from 38% a year ago, with line of credit funding being the next most common funding method. An increasing number of small businesses (68%) plan to look into online lending options, up from 56% a year ago.
    • For the year ahead, small business leaders name their top three challenges as economic uncertainty, inflation, and shifting consumer habits due to COVID-19.
    • Midsize businesses name labor shortages, ongoing supply chain issues, and higher cost of doing business as their three biggest challenges.
    • "We’re pleased to see that small business owners’ confidence level is improving," said Ben Walter, CEO of Chase Business Banking. "As confidence improves, we see a greater need for credit."
    • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up in November.

    Jan. 04, 2022 11:44 AM ET5 Comments

    • At December's Federal Reserve meeting, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari boosted his expectation for rate increases to two this year from his previous expectation of none on the potential that "transitory" high inflation could trigger an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
    • Kashkari laid out his reasoning for the increase in rate hikes in an essay posted on Medium.
    • The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee is facing two opposing risks, he explains. The first is that "if the FOMC were to allow long-term inflation expectations to become unanchored, it would then have to respond aggressively to re-anchor them at 2%," Kaskhari wrote. That could put the economy into recession.
    • The FOMC, though, also faces the risk of overreacting to the current high inflation readings, he said. In that case, "many Americans might have been needlessly prevented from participating in a recovery that was slower than necessary because monetary policy was too tight." That was the scenario that played out after the 2008 financial crisis, which remains fresh in the memory of Fed policymakers.
    • Due to the uncertainty in the economic outlook and the two risks to monetary policy, "it is important that the FOMC remains data-dependent and that the public understands policy is not on a pre-set course," he adds.
    • In the essay, Kashkari lays out his analysis of the data for price stability and maximum employment. His baseline forecast still calls for high inflation subsiding to its pre-pandemic levels after the COVID-19 shock fully passes.
    • Assessing data on employment, Kashkari concludes that demand for labor rebounded more quickly than the supply of labor. That complicates where the U.S. stands in terms of maximum employment, he said.
    • "One of my lessons from the prior recovery is that the vast majority of Americans want to work if given the chance to get a decent job at a decent wage. But how long it is going to take for all prior workers to return is unclear. For now, at least, it appears demand for workers exceeds the supply of workers," Kashkari said.
    • Previously (Dec. 15), Fed members predict three rate hikes in 2022




  17. VIAC/Phil  Patiently waiting for VIAC move .. have rolled long calls and short puts down. Wondering if it is time to sell some '23 cov calls now or is it better to roll the longs out to a '24 spread?

    20   '23 $30calls ($14.2)

    -10  '24 $25puts ($4.73)

    Thx!


  18. VIAC/Wing – The $30s are down to $7.15 so you have roughly $14,000 loss.  The puts are a fine target but too much hill to climb on the long calls – hopefully you sold some covers and bought them back.  2024 $30s are $9.25 and the $40s are $5.40 so net $3.85 means you can buy 40 of those and that's $21,600 so you'll make back the loss at $38.90 with a little room for profit (not counting short puts or calls you sold). 

    Webinar time!  


  19. Phil – I have 15 2023 $60-72.5 BCS on GILD, coupled with 6 short 2023 $60 Puts. I got in for a net of <$500, and the spread is now $9,660 (and can go to a max of $18,750) – given an almost further double if GILD stays where it is, I am inclined to hold it and do nothing (it will also be long term gains in April). Do you agree? Or should I look at selling any shorter calls? Feb 77.5s are 1.1, and March 80 calls are ~0.9, for example. 


  20. Fed Minutes did not go over well, did they?  

    So we cashed out 2 of the /ES shorts for about $3,000 profit at 4,745 and letting the other 2 ride 

    With Oil, we ended up 5 short /CL at $77.74 avg so taking 3 off the table at $77.75 (a stop if it goes back over) but otherwise keeping a trailing 0.10 stop on two.

       

     

        

  21. Pharm/Phil/NVAX

    Pharm, any thoughts about NVAX?  They have their covid vaccine which from what I have seen has some strengths. Good antibody response in their trials, recent approvals from India and WHO, looking to receive FDA approval soon I think. 

    The vaccine doesn't require refrigeration unlike the mRNA vaccines so theoretically better for 3rd word distribution. 

    Biggest issue I've seen is a lack of organization by their senior management and poor communication on their part with regulatory bodies which is concerning.

    It's pulled back significantly on account of those issues and some concern about their ability to deliver as many doses as they claim they can. 

    What do you say?  


  22. GILD/Rn – Sure it's at $72 so well clear and good support at $65.  As long as you still really like them but I'd sell 5 March $72.50s for $3.40 ($1,700) as a hedge.  If you can sell 4 x $1,700 while you wait that's $6,800 extra if GILD is flat or down and, if it goes up, 5 should not be too hard to roll.  The cost of rolling 15 short $72.50s at $4.20 to the $77.50s at $2.20 is $3,000 so you are already paying for half of that with your sale and that would add $7,500 of potential upside gains should GILD pop over $72.50 – plenty of cushion for the short March calls.  

    4,720!  That's almost $10,000 so taking the money and running on /ES.  If /YM fails 36,400, that's the fresh horse with 2 new shorts.  

    NVAX/Jeff – Well I liked them at $1:

    NVAX – By the way Rick, notice those 2018 $1.50 puts are now 0.50 and comfortably out of the money and the mechanics of the short puts is you sell the same 10,000 for $750,000 (0.75) that goes in your pocket and then you just wait to see how much of it you get to keep.  Already that trade is up $250,000 and not as good as the $450,000 you made on the riskier calls, but also you'd have no reason to stop out and a lot more upside still ahead.  That's why I prefer a put sale, in addition to the fact that the trade doesn't lose a penny unless they're below 0.75 so 25% free insurance AND they make 100% at $1.50 while the calls lose 50% at that price (if you go all the way).  

    For those late to the game on NVAX – the 2018 $1 calls are still $1.45 and the short $2.50 calls are 0.95 so net 0.50 on the $1 spread that's 0.65 in the money at $2.15 and you can still sell 2019 $1.50 puts for 0.75 to turn it into a credit spread but my logic is you make a very nice 100% with no margin requirement if it goes your way so why be greedy?  If NVAX goes down AND you still want to be long – THEN you can sell 1/2x the $1 puts (now 0.40) for 0.75 and then you have dropped the cost of the long spreads down to 0.125 while you wait for recovery.  Good backup plan.

    $10.7Bn is not a bad price for them but a bit of a one-trick pony at the moment.  The reason I like PFE is they have a deep bench AND they make big money on Covid.  Same with MRNA, who are also selling off.

    He's a one-trick pony

    One trick is all that horse can do

    He does, one trick only

    It's the principal source of his revenue


  23. LOL Phil, pretty epic you calling it out at $1.  

    They have some other stuff in the pipleline, particularly for flu, but plenty of other players there as well. They really screwed up the filings for approval and their strategy has been off despite having what I think is a solid product. 


  24. Nas at the 2.5% Rule, 15,850 – very bad if it doesn't 0.5% (weak) bounce there.

    NVAX/Jeff – I loved them as a startup for $100M but $10.5Bn is a lot so not too excited.  I'd wait for earnings and guidance before getting too crazy because, even last Q, they were losing $322M.  They spent a lot of money gearing up to manufacture a vaccine that may not be in such short supply in 2022   They will probably lose another $300M in Q4 and their Government contract is $1.75Bn, having burned through half of it so far.  It's still possible they fail to deliver or costs overrun them.  Of course, if all goes well, they could easily double.  


  25. 2nd day in a row that someone have been dumping 1m shares of VIAC at closing.



  26. I like "pharm" days….





  27. US hospitals seeing different kind of COVID surge this time


  28. Italy to make COVID-19 jab mandatory for those over 50