Use Your Head…Don’t Blame The Fed
Courtesy of Howard Lindzon
Repeat after me…
Talking about stocks will make you look stupid.
I write about my ideas – stocks and private investments – to focus on making better investments. I still feel stupid but I make better decisions having a timeline that holds me accountable.
No matter who you are, at many points during your investing life owning stocks will make you feel stupid.
Lately, I have felt stupid for owning ‘any’ growth stocks.
I have no idea when the market will stop making me feel stupid, but in the meantime I am doing less public market ‘growth’ investing.
It is easy to go back to 2020 on my blog and find a stock I was buying with ‘digital tailwinds’ and tripling my money.
The two best examples were Zoom and Peloton.
I made Zoom an 8-80 company in April 2020 when it was below $115. The market and the ‘Fed’ and my momentum strategy made me look like a genius as the stock eventually flew past $500. I remember selling some at $160, $200, $300, $400 on the way up and hearing the ‘but you just bought it’ and ‘but taxes’. I still do own some in this nasty drawdown, but Zoom is now in a nasty bear market with most cloud and software stocks. Microsoft and Google may kill them off, but I am not so sure. I am teetering.
I added Peloton to my ‘Fashology’ index in June 2020 when the stock crossed above $30. I thought it would close the gap on $LULU valuation and it did…extremely quick. The stock shot to $150. I sold some on the way up in the 50′, 80’s, and 100’s and rode the rest down to the $60’s before giving up. I got the same ‘you just bought it’, and ‘but taxes’ on my Peloton sells but in hindsight with the stock at $30 again this morning, I did the right thing.
In hindsight 2020 made us all growth investors.
The market may just be started beating the growth investor out of us.
I am not going to blame the FED.
I will adjust my plans.
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