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Wednesday Weakovery – Markets Bounce Ahead of the Fed

This is what we call a weak bounce:

The S&P 500 fell 500 points in 2022 (so far) and now it's bouncing 20% of that drop, which is 100 points.  According to our 5% Rule™, we look for 20% pullbacks from a rally or sell-off at each significant increment of 1.25%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 50%.  It's not very different from a Fibonacci Retracement but we adjusted to take into account computer trading – since Fibonacci Retracements govern natural growth cycles, not coded ones… 

And, as Asimov said:

“Since emotions are few and reasons many, the behavior or a crowd can be

more easily predicted than the behavior of one person can. And that, in turn, means that if laws are to be developed that enable the current of history to be predicted, then one must deal with large populations, the larger the better. "

That's why our 5% Rule™ applies so well to indexes and actively traded large caps and commodities – but not so well to individual stocks – we need a better sample size to make more accurate predicitions.  That is another major flow in Technical Analysis – it does not take volume into account.  

14,700 is where the Nasdaq needs to be to get out of the Bear Set on our bounce charts and it's well below that at 14,400 – despite this morning's 250-point gain.  If the Nasdaq does clear 14,700, we will flip a bit more bullish but, for today, most likely we are still just watching and waiting – especially ahead of the Fed's firrst announcement of 2022 at 2pm and, of course, Powell's press conference at 2:30.  We'll be doing a Live Trading Webinar at 1pm so we'll be live for those events – you can join us here.

The Fed is generally expected to announce no changes this month but signal they will be raising rates in March and perhaps 3 more times during 2022 – quarter-point hikes are expected but a 1% increase in the Fed funds rate is 4 TIMES where we are now (0.25%).   This morning, we have good reports from MSFT, TXN and T but BA and KMB disappointed and mixed earnings are NOT going to keep the indexes at all-time highs.

We'll see what kind of bounce we can get from the Fed today but, until we clear 14,700 on the Nasdaq and hold it for 48 – there's nothing to get excited about.

"You try to reach a vital part of me

My interest level's dropping rapidly

It's all excuses baby all a stall

We just don't get excited" – Graham Parker 

 


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  1. January 26th, 2022 at 9:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  2. January 26th, 2022 at 9:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  3. January 26th, 2022 at 9:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  4. January 26th, 2022 at 9:24 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good Morning!


  5. January 26th, 2022 at 9:51 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    FFIV fell 14% today and wondering why?  I dont own it but was just curious. Check out this below from their conference call.  I goes back tou our discussion yesterday about having a 5 day supply of chips.  We were discussing WCD and MU, but here is a company that is supposedly in the software business. 

    And at the beginning of our fiscal year, when we were doing the planning for this year, we actually took into account the number of decommits that we were getting from various suppliers and a situation that was already very tight on a number of components. Over the last 30 days, though, we have seen a step function decline in the state of component availability from a number of suppliers. And that's what's caused us to relook at the view for the year, and see that we wouldn't be able to even ship the systems that we have planned to ship for the full year. To just give you a sense, Jim, the number of decommits, so we're now seeing over 400 decommits per quarter. And we were running about 30% less than that even just a month ago. So we are — the situation is quite unprecedented. We are doing a number of things to mitigate these supply
    issues. Working with our suppliers, of course, on escalations and allocations of supply to F5. We will be working on shifting some of our demand to — we've introduced new hardware platforms that are just starting to ship recently, and utilize more readily available component. So we'll be working to shift some of the demand we have to these newer hardware platforms. And we have a number of mitigation elements in place to improve the situation but the supply chain is absolutely tight. The other thing that has changed in the last 30 days relative to where we were before is that we have been going to, not just our suppliers, but also when we couldn't get the supply, we have been going to secondary markets, so on the open market through borders, to get part of our supply. And that avenue has dried up really in the last several weeks because I think everybody is in the same situation and going through that. So those are some of the changes that have happened in the supply recently.”


  6. January 26th, 2022 at 9:57 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Oh, forgot to say Good Morning.  

    The Chinese new year starts on Feb 1, that's not going to help with chip shortages 


  7. January 26th, 2022 at 10:27 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good morning!  

    That's right, we were going to remain cautious into Chinese New Year because China may be forestalling a lot of bad economic news ahead of their most vital holiday.   Not going to help with anything.

    FFIV/Stock – "Fab Five Freddy told me everybody's fly Dj spinnin' I said, "My My""  That's what I think of every time I see that symbol.  Then I get the song stuck in my head and now that's your fault!  As to why, that decommit situation is terrible!  If systems can't ship, they can't bill – very simple.  It's just part of the cascading chip shortage issue that will go mission critical shortly and shut down tons of things, Covid or not.  So I'm really taking this Nasdaq pop with a grain of salt – especially when it's 300 points on no volume.  

    Behold the awesome rally!

    VIX is calming down, that's more important.

    Told you so on /NG:

    And that's the old contract, Feb hit $4.39 from $3.90 yesterday.  

    Dollar is back from vacation:

    Oh no, don't list my company in China!  <end sarcastic font>

    JinkoSolar pops 8% after listing in Shanghai – China listing worth 4x US listing

    • With shares down ~30% from recent highs late last year, JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) is up 8% this morning after the company listed its principal operating subsidiary, Jiangxi Jinko, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
    • Shares of the subsidiary traded up 111% on the day to close at 10.55 RMB; post IPO Jinko retains 58% of the shares of its subsidiary.
    • With 10.0b shares outstanding, and with shares trading at 10.55 RMB, the market cap of the subsidiary is ~105b RMB or ~16b USD — JinkoSolar retaining 58% of the subsidiary owns ~$9.3b of stock in Jiangxi Jinko.
    • Jinko's own market cap is ~2.0b, indicating that the Company owns stock in Jiangxi Jinko worth ~4x more than JinkoSolar's current market cap.

    This is interesting.  North America is down but Europe blasted higher:

    State Street Investor Confidence Index gains 4.5 points in January

    PTON -9.16%Jan. 26, 2022 10:03 AM ET

    • State Street Investor Confidence Index: 89.3 in January vs. 84.8 in December (revised from 85.6).
    • North America ICI to 93.6, down 1.4 points.
    • Asian ICI to 97.1, up 1.7 points.
    • European ICI to 85.3, up 18.2 points.
    • “Investors continued to shy away from risk assets in January as the global ICI continued to hover close to its weakest reading in over a year,” says Rajeev Bhargava, head of Investor Behavior Research, State Street Associates. “Sentiment within the US remained subdued as an increasingly hawkish stance from the Fed, rising Covid infection rates locally due to the Omicron variant, and a disappointing start to earning season likely led to a continued reassessment of allocations away from higher beta assets."

    Hard to imagine what would cause Europe to go from 67.1 to 85.3 other than some sort of error.

    Still, here's more good data:

    New home sales end 2021 with a surge, climbing almost 12%

    SEB +0.25%Jan. 26, 2022 10:01 AM ET

    • December New Home Sales: +11.9% M/M to 811K vs. 760K expected and 725K prior (revised from 744K).
    • Last week, existing home sales in December fell 4.6% M/M, more than expected

    Another I told you so (yawn):

    Yeti Holdings rallies after Credit Suisse calls it a top consumer products pick

    YETI +3.42%Jan. 26, 2022 9:55 AM ET

    • Credit Suisse singles out Yeti Holdings (NYSE:YETI) as its new top pick in the consumer products sector. Analyst Kaumil Gajrawala says top-line momentum continues for YETI on further U.S. brand penetration, high repeat rates, a growing international business, consumer mobility and interest in the outdoors and new products. "We think these factors can keep near-term growth at or above company’s algorithm (+15%). Despite inflation, margins are cushioned by a strong direct-to-consumer business," he notes. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on YETI and price target of $100. Following the recent market selling pressure, YETI is trading below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

    We only have the short puts though.  My comment last week was:

    • YETI – I absolutely want a big position in them but there's no emergency – I'd rather hear earnings first.

    So, for the LTP, let's build on our 10 short 2023 $65 puts we sold for $7 (now $10.75) and:

    • Sell 10 YETI 2024 $70 puts for $16.50 ($16,500) 
    • Buy 20 YETI 2024 $60 calls for $22.50 ($45,000) 
    • Sell 20 YETI 2024 $80 calls for $14 ($28,000) 

    That's net $500 on the $40,000 spread so we have $39,500 worth of upside potential (7,900%) if YETI can get back to $80 in two years.  Our intention is to take the 2023 puts off the table however, since the 2024 puts are aggressive, so, if YETI fails $60 we will stop those out – probably at $12.50.  

    As it stands at $70, YETI has a $6Bn market cap and they are making about $250M so 24x for a rapidly growing company is a bet we'd be happy to press if they go lower.  My thesis on them is they'll do fantastic when people do go back to the office and get jealous of other people's Yeti cups.  

    YETI Rambler Tumblers: Reusable Mugs And Cups

    S-1/A 1 a2236865zs-1a.htm S-1/A Use these links to rapidly review the document TABLE OF CONTENTS INDEX TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Table of Contents As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on October 15, 2018 ...


  8. January 26th, 2022 at 10:39 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil,

    I read your comment that no one seems interested in Butterfly portfolio. Well I am..I just do not really understand what are the principles in building a butterfly Portfolio. I am still a working full time 63 yo physician so I cannot watch a lot of the member daytime sessions.


  9. January 26th, 2022 at 10:43 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    I have tried to talk myself into selling some PTON puts but I could not convince myself – that's sad for them.  

    That's still an $8Bn valuation and the company has $4.5Bn in sales (probably less with the production halt) and $1Bn in losses (probably more).  There's the risk of subscription cancellations and let's say just 20% of the people who bought during lockdown decide to sell their bikes – that's a lot of barely-used bikes hitting the market ($8Bn in sales x 20%) competing with their new bike sales.  See, I can't get there…  

    Peloton Interactive gains after Baird sticks with bullish view

    PTON -9.16%Jan. 26, 2022 9:38 AM ET3 Comments

    • Baird sticks with an Outperform rating on Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) even as it drops its price target to $40 from $70.
    • The biggest takeaway from the firm is that PTON has the potential to transition to balanced growth model and smmoth out its supply issues.
    • "Despite a potentially sizable cut to F2022E guidance and ongoing balance sheet constraints, we still see substantially higher potential value for the subscription business assuming management can reinforce confidence in PTON’s ability to transition to a balanced/profitable growth model."
    • Shares of PTON are up 3.55% to $27.47 vs. the 52-week range of $23.25 to $157.83.
    • Seeking Alpha author Luke Emerson offered up a positive spin on Peloton's upside yesterday.

    • Is Peloton a buy after bouncing off its lows?

      PTON -9.16%Jan. 25, 2022 2:07 PM ET1 Comment

      • Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) spent most of 2021 shedding the gains the exercise equipment maker piled on during the pandemic surge of at-home workouts. This decline has continued in the early part of 2022 amid ongoing concern about demand for the company's iconic exercise bike. But now that the stock has bounced off a recent low, has PTON become a buy?

      A Short Ride Down

      • In March of 2020, just as the pandemic was set to unleash its massive economic disruptions, PTON traded below $24 a share. With COVID restrictions coming into force and closing workout centers, demand for the company's products skyrocketed. So did the firm's share price.
      • By early 2021, the stock briefly topped $170, reaching an all-time peak of $171.09 before beginning a long stair-step decline through the rest of the year. The slide continued in early 2022, spurred lower last week by a report that PTON had halted production of its bikes and treadmills due to soft demand.
      • In response to this latest sign that consumers had shifted away from their pandemic workout habits, shares of Peloton (PTON) plunged another 24% in a single day. During that sell-off, which took place on Jan. 20, the stock also reached a 52-week low of $23.25.
      • This level generally represented a round trip back to its pre-pandemic trading price. At the same time, it marked an 86% retreat from its one-time high, set just over one year before.

      Is Peloton a Buy?

      • In the days since Jan. 20, PTON has stabilized off its lows. In Tuesday's midday action, the stock has shown significant weakness after posting gains in the previous couple of sessions. The stock dropped about 9% in midday action to reach a level of $26.90 at around 1:45 p.m. ET.
      • Still, this level marked a nearly 16% improvement from its intraday 52-week low set less than a week before. Given this bounce, has PTON reached a bottom? Does it now represent a buying opportunity after a year of dramatic declines?
      • Wall Street analysts still have hope. Of the 29 analysts tracked by Seeking Alpha, only one currently has a Sell rating on the stock. At the same time, 15 experts have given PTON a Buy or Strong Buy opinion. Another 13 see shares as a Hold at this point. All told, this equates to a mild Buy recommendation from the Street.
      • However, Seeking Alpha contributors have a less optimistic view of PTON's prospects. Of 15 authors writing about the stock in the last 90 days, seven have recommended a Sell or a Strong Sell. Only five have issued a Buy opinion.
      • At the same time, quantitative analysis points to ongoing weakness for the stock. SA's Quant Ratings have a dismal 1.14 score for PTON. That includes a D grade for valuation, a D- for profitability and an F for growth.
      • For more details on PTON's future, you can read a bullish take from SA contributor Luke Emerson. However, fellow contributor Michael Wiggins De Oliveira disagrees, arguing that the company has gotten caught in a perfect storm.

    Speaking of can't get there – indexes ran into selling already.  MSFT is a market mover but it's not AAPL.

    Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones rally on Fed day with big help from Microsoft

    SP500 -0.77%Jan. 26, 2022 9:33 AM ET49 Comments

    • The stock market is rebounding from the previous selloff, led by tech, but investors still have to contend with the FOMC announcement.
    • The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) +2.5%, S&P 500 (SP500) +1.5% and Dow (DJI) +0.9% are all higher.
    • The Info Tech sector is leading, thanks in good part to a jump in Microsoft. its earnings and guidance are living up to the legend, Citi says.
    • Volatility is lower, with the VIX moving below 30.
    • "Indecision among buyers and sellers generated a long-legged doji candlestick on the SPX yesterday, hinting at a potential consolidation phase or even a reversal," Piper Sandler technical strategist Craig Johnson writes. "Oversold conditions are becoming widespread. RSI on the index has dropped to pandemic-level lows, while around 1/4 of SPX constituents are oversold (Technology has the highest percent at 42%)."
    • "Key support levels set up at 4,300 (Oct ’21 lows/milestone level), 4,258 (July ’21 lows), and 4,233 (May ’21 highs). Resistance comes into play at 4,385 (prior highs/lows), 4,432 (200-day MA), and 4,480 (mid-Aug high)."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 basis point at 1.78%.
    • The Federal Reserve will announce what is expected to be its last no-change decision before starting hiking this afternoon. Chairman Jay Powell speaks afterward amid possibly the most fragile market conditions in his tenure.
    • Many expect his to stick tightly to his script during the Q&A.
    • While there's little whispering about a surprise hike, Standard Chartered's Steven Englander says a sudden end to QE may be in the cards.
    • "Our baseline is that the FOMC will finish QE in March and start QT in May or June, but it is possible that they just call it quits on QE in Feb," he says "This could seem hawkish on the announcement but if Powell says that they hope by going a bit faster on QE they can go a bit slower on fed funds, it would become market friendly."
    • "The Fed does not want to force growth below trend (growth is slowing anyway)," UBS chief economist Paul Donovan says. "The Fed does not want to force inflation lower (inflation will drop anyway). There is little the Fed can do to influence the price of a 2001 Honda Civic. The Fed might want to create conditions that give it political credit when inflation does slow."
    • "The Fed wants to stabilize the economy and inflation when the extraordinary demand shock of the post-pandemic world reverts to normality," he adds. "There is a big difference between the policy path and the economic/market outcome of a 'Volcker shock' squeezing inflation out of the economy, versus a stabilization at normal."
    • See the stocks making the biggest moves this morning.

    Meat companies are asked by Congress for more info on pricing decisions

    SEB +0.25%Jan. 25, 2022 2:03 PM ET1 Comment

    • The high prices of meat products is being looked at by politicians again. The chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee on economic and consumer policy sent a request to Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), JBS Foods, National Beef and Seaboard Corporation (NYSE:SEB) for information on rising prices and profits. The letter argues that recent earnings reports work against the argument from meat companies that higher input costs account for the higher pricing as net profit margins have shot up over 300% since the start of the pandemic.
    • Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi is leading the charge in tracking down details on price increases for beef, pork and chicken products.
    • "Meat prices are the single biggest contributor to the rising cost of food that consumers eat at home. Over the past year, beef prices have risen nearly 19%, pork prices have increased by 15%, and poultry prices have gone up by almost 10% – all while large meat companies have raked in enormous profits and made huge payouts to shareholders and top executives."
    • See the net profit margins for Seaboard and Tyson over the last few years.


  10. January 26th, 2022 at 10:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Coolers and cups…really?

    I'll take them without the name and save 70%…. :)


  11. January 26th, 2022 at 10:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Like the yeti trade.  Its all high end stuff, for us "1% .  Think of it as the Mercedes of outdoor gear.  I really wanted the Hopper Flip till I saw the $250 price


  12. January 26th, 2022 at 10:53 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    New Year/Phil – I've mentioned this in the past, so a reminder – the Lunar New Year is a big deal not just in China but also in Korea, in Viet Nam, Taiwan – not sure about Japan, but it's a general east Asian holiday.


  13. January 26th, 2022 at 10:58 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    no positive spin on cl/ yet calling it an unexpected build. 


  14. January 26th, 2022 at 11:03 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    1020/YETI – But YETI sends free stickers once you register your product on their website.


  15. January 26th, 2022 at 11:04 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Oil blasting back to $87.50 despite 2.4Mb build in oil and net 1.5MB draw in product:  I have to short /CL again.  

    EIA inventory report – Crude inventory builds unexpectedly

    CL1:COM +2.25%Jan. 26, 2022 10:30 AM ET11 Comments

    And where is the European Investor Confidence?

    EU commercial vehicle sales fell 8.4% in December

    Jan. 26, 2022 10:31 AM ET6 Comments

    • New commercial vehicle registrations in the European Union fell 8.4% to 155,963 units in December, followed by 14.7% decline in November.
    • This marks the six consecutive months of decline mainly due to a drop in new van sales.
    • Van segment’s double-digit drop weighed heavily on the overall result, as vans accounted for over 80% of total commercial vehicle sales in the European Union.
    • The region’s four major markets all posted drops, with the sharpest seen in Spain -31.9%.
    • For FY2021, commercial vehicle registrations up 9.6% to 1.88M units.
    • With the exception of 2.8% decline in Spain, all major EU markets posted growth last year. Italy saw the highest percentage gain +15.5% followed by France +7.8%, while registrations increased by only a modest 0.6% in Germany.
    • New light commercial vehicles registrations fell 12.8% to 126,794 units for the month but for the year 1.6M light commercial vehicles were registered across the EU with Y/Y growth of 8.5%.
    • New heavy commercial vehicles registrations rose 23.5% to 20,784 units.
    • Registrations of new medium and heavy commercial vehicles grew 19.1% to 25,314 units.
    • Registrations of new medium and heavy buses & coaches grew 6.8% to 3.855 units for the month. Double-digit increases were recorded in three of the region’s four key markets: Italy +40.7%, France +38.7% and Germany +26.6% whereas Spain suffered a significant decline -36.4% during the last month of the year.
    • Twelve months commercial vehicle registration trend:

    Electric vehicle stocks rally ahead of Tesla's earnings report

    TSLA +2.47%Jan. 26, 2022 10:29 AM ET4 Comments

    The electric vehicle sector is pushing higher after a big earnings report from Microsoft appears to have helped overall market sentiment.

    Top gainers in early trading include Workhorse Group (WKHS +8.7%), Luminar Technologies (LAZR +11.1%), TuSimple (TSP +8.8%), Proterra (PTRA +6.4%), QuantumScape (QS +6.6%), Rivian Automotive (RIVN +2.6%), Lightning eMotors (ZEV +4.7%), Nikola (NKLA +4.4%) and Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE +4.2%).

     

    The boost in confidence in EV names arrives just ahead of Tesla's (TSLA +2.9%) earnings report after the closing bell. The electric vehicle juggernaut is expected to update on the gigafactories in Austin and outside Berlin, alongside its Q4 numbers. Elon Musk and team could also be more specific on the deliveries expectations for 2022 after issuing general guidance in the past for 50% average annual deliveries growth. Also keep an eye on Bitcoin (BTC-USD) if Tesla reveals any change in its crypto position or mindset on the balance sheet holding. Dig into the Tesla earnings preview.


  16. January 26th, 2022 at 11:11 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Stockbern- I'm with you on Yeti. Yes neat stuff for sure BUT 40 buck + for a tumbler to keep my coffee or tea warm (Or cold)? I thought they would be neat gifts until I added up how much we had to cough up for one family. Anyways still using the sbux INSULATED tumbler's we paid 25 bucks for from sbux years ago and being steel THEY LAST FOREVER. Might make a good gift though IF someone has to live with the "right" label. It's a must for people who don't have a dime. It is never mentioned that PTON has killed a child and family pets. Makes sense with earbuds in and not keeping track of "rug bugs" those little ones both human and not. We used exercise bikes, but were not electronic and ended up up as collectors of clothing. Much more fun to walk and run out in nature.


  17. January 26th, 2022 at 11:27 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Decommits- just what is that? Is this the new age wokester politically correct terminology? In the old days, customers just cancelled orders. 

    Yeti- I was in a Bass Pro Shops store last Sunday and there were a number of comparable non-Yeti brand coolers for sale well below the $400 price point. Not to mention a variety of non-Yeti brand thermal cups at half the price. Seems more a fashion statement than utility. Kind of like the wanna-be Range Rover adventurer tackling urban potholes. :)


  18. January 26th, 2022 at 11:37 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    My 2 cents on Yeti. I bought a coffee mug from Aldi this fall for around $10. Wifey started using it.The plastic tab on the top is broken already. I gave her my Yeti that I received from corporate swag gift. That slide top is a few years old and works great. It may be worth it to spend a little extra to get a product that works and lasts longer.


  19. January 26th, 2022 at 11:42 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Comment moderation- so, what did not pass the censors scrutiny?


  20. January 26th, 2022 at 12:07 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    I like stickers…. ;)


  21. January 26th, 2022 at 12:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  22. January 26th, 2022 at 12:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  23. January 26th, 2022 at 12:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  24. January 26th, 2022 at 12:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  25. January 26th, 2022 at 12:21 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  26. January 26th, 2022 at 12:22 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  27. January 26th, 2022 at 12:23 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  28. January 26th, 2022 at 12:24 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  29. January 26th, 2022 at 12:25 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta’s Peak
    By: Jon Kamp, Margherita Stancati


  30. January 26th, 2022 at 12:26 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Brent Oil Price Tops $90 For First Time Since 2014
    By: AFP – Agence France Presse


  31. January 26th, 2022 at 12:27 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yes you do 1020….


  32. January 26th, 2022 at 12:27 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  33. January 26th, 2022 at 12:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  34. January 26th, 2022 at 12:29 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Coup Nation
    By: David A. Graham


  35. January 26th, 2022 at 12:30 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  36. January 26th, 2022 at 12:31 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  37. January 26th, 2022 at 12:32 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Nature/Pirate – Not everyone has a choice.  There's definitely a segment for these things.

    Moderation/Pstas – I guess it sounded like an ad?  And yes, Yeti is a fashion niche but very popular among the Top 10% and they have a long way to go before they exhaust that market.   Their stuff is actually very good too, not just build on a brand.  I don't mind paying for things that are actually top-quality but sure, a SBUX mug is probably just as good, though I do love my $30, 32-ounce Tumbler from them.  

    Yeti/Randers – I agree.  I use my Yeti tumbler every day vs. 3 or 4 $10-15 ones I bought at Target in the last couple of years that are all trashed.  The Yeti keeps my coffee hot or my tea cold until I am done with it – even if it's many hours later.  I put ice in my water when I go to bed and there's still ice in the water in the morning.  Is that worth 0.10/day?  Sure it is…

    Luxury cars did best this year and the same people who spend $60,000+ on cars rather than $30,000+ are not going to quibble over the cost of the travel gear they put in it.  It's like Tumi – not for everyone but a very loyal customer base who don't give a crap how "just as good" some other brand is for less  money.   

    Meanwhile, I still have every Tumi bag I ever bought while we've been through dozens of the cheaper kind.  My first  Tumi is circa 1990 and I just got it refurbished for free (lifetime guarantee at the time) – really got my $100 worth on that one (which seemed crazy at the time).  

    Though my new favorite is this one:

    G-RO: Revolutionary Carry-on Luggage | Indiegogo

    Been very happy with this one.


  38. January 26th, 2022 at 12:32 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  39. January 26th, 2022 at 12:33 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  40. January 26th, 2022 at 12:34 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    The future of retail: more self-service
    By: Jennifer A. Kingson


  41. January 26th, 2022 at 12:35 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  42. January 26th, 2022 at 12:36 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  43. January 26th, 2022 at 12:37 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  44. January 26th, 2022 at 12:39 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  45. January 26th, 2022 at 12:45 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil – You must be pretty tough on metal cups…most throw crystal at their fireplace…. ;)    


  46. January 26th, 2022 at 12:50 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharm, that's not my car. I'm not a fan of the Eagles… ;)


  47. January 26th, 2022 at 12:52 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil – are you doing a webinar today?


  48. January 26th, 2022 at 12:53 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    In the same vein as YETI .. looking at WRBY and BIRD.  Especially WRBY.  Fashionable, trendy eyeglasses.  Big e-commerce business, moving into retail stores.  Stilly a bit pricey .. Looking at selling some $30 puts (there are no long term options) to start a position.   Thoughts?  


  49. January 26th, 2022 at 12:56 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Can someone explain the spin-off split-off discussion of the AT&T deal (what's the difference)? the CEO wants a spin off, but the market is selling off because others want a split-off?  


  50. January 26th, 2022 at 12:57 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Willsons: From yesterday's post:

    Good morning. Here is the link to today's webinar

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5266201521845129999


  51. January 26th, 2022 at 12:57 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Cups/1020 – It's mostly the lids that go.  Probably shouldn't put them in the dishwasher but I'd rather buy one that can take it.  

    Yes, Willsons – Webinar time!

    WRBY/Nom – $4.5Bn with $600M in sales and $70M in losses is not one I'd want.  Growth is good and they'll get there one day but there are better things to buy.  BIRD is less than $2Bn with $273M in sales and $47M in losses so same thing.  

    T/RN – That's a very long subject.  Not clear to me yet.


  52. January 26th, 2022 at 2:14 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    JPH – I'd go with Al-air for grid: low-cost, best "Environmental Ecosystem" score.

    Bonus: AA is basically an internet meme stock or what? 6 top 60 in 2 years…


  53. January 26th, 2022 at 2:43 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    BDC  – Does this system not require a massive energy input to refresh the aluminum?  I'm not well versed enough to read that abstract you linked, but I've kept a bit of an eye on India's push for Al-O2 batteries and it always seems like they need 1000C+ temps to refresh the batteries.


  54. January 26th, 2022 at 3:02 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Wow, Nasdaq taking a dive while Powell speaks.  Not good.

       

    Now that the Fed is done, what's next to support the market?  


  55. January 26th, 2022 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  56. January 26th, 2022 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  57. January 26th, 2022 at 3:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  58. January 26th, 2022 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  59. January 26th, 2022 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  60. January 26th, 2022 at 3:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  61. January 26th, 2022 at 3:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  62. January 26th, 2022 at 3:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  63. January 26th, 2022 at 3:21 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  64. January 26th, 2022 at 3:22 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  65. January 26th, 2022 at 3:23 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  66. January 26th, 2022 at 3:41 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    What a mess this has turned into.

    Nice for the Oil shorts, at least! 

    Stop at $2,000, of course.


  67. January 26th, 2022 at 3:43 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Dollar has been killing things:

     

    Bonds getting crushed:

       


  68. January 26th, 2022 at 3:55 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    COIN    someone sold  750 Jan2024 $85 puts for $12.80 , also sold some $450 calls 


  69. January 26th, 2022 at 4:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  70. January 26th, 2022 at 4:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  71. January 26th, 2022 at 4:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  72. January 26th, 2022 at 4:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  73. January 26th, 2022 at 4:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  74. January 26th, 2022 at 4:21 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  75. January 26th, 2022 at 4:22 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    That was probably the most Hawkish Fed press conference I can remember seeing fwiw. Super strong language on inflation and even saying multiple hikes won't hurt labor market at all etc. 


  76. January 26th, 2022 at 4:22 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  77. January 26th, 2022 at 4:23 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  78. January 26th, 2022 at 4:24 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Frog regrows amputated leg after drug treatment
    By: Hannah Devlin Science correspondent


  79. January 26th, 2022 at 4:25 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  80. January 26th, 2022 at 4:32 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharm, you nailed it on SRRA congrats man!!