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BNN Money Talk Portfolio Review

I will be on Bloomberg's Money Talk this evening.  

That means it's time to review our Money Talk Portfolio, a portfolio we only trade on the show so, roughly once per quarter we make trades and adjustments and, the rest of the time, we leave it alone.  That means our trades have to be fairly bullet-proof and able to handle the insane ups and downs of the market so the key is to pick great value stocks and keep them diversified.  

We began this portfolio on November 13th, 2019 – just before the pandemic and we took an early hit but we bounced back very nicely and, as of our last review on December 1st, the portfolio was up exactly 100% and we had plenty of cash, so we added 4 new positions, including our PhilStockWorld 2022 Trade of the Year: IBM.  We also made a big adjustment to VIAC, which had been lagging.  You can view the whole past show HERE.    

IBM (IBM), Altria (MO) and ViacomCBS (VIAC) have? all performed well already and we're still waiting for Intel (INTC) and Walgreen's (WBA) to pick up but that makes them still good for a new trade.  Our 4 new trades plus VIAC had $121,400 of upside potential and have already gained $27,158 and the overall portfolio now stands at $240,926 – up $40,967 since December 1st and our low-touch, $100,000 portfolio is now up 140% in just over two years.  

You can always follow our BNN Money Talk Portfolio trades at: https://www.philstockworld.com/category/moneytalk/  

As you can seee, we are at 2/3 CASH!!! in our portfolio and that's about when we face market uncertainty.  As of our last set of adjustments, the positions in the portfolio had $235,336 worth of upside potential and we gained $40,000 of it already but it doesn't mean a thing until you convert those gains to CASH!!! (realize them) so we are only going to add one new trade this quarter as we're still in a very dicey market and we want to maintain the ability to adjust.  

At PhilStockWorld, we teach our Members how to conserve CASH!!! by using option for hedging and for leverage.  Although the positions require margin and are not ideal for margin-restricted retirement accounts, the potential for gains against your deployed cash is amazing and it's a tool every trader should have in their toolbelt:

  • BYD – Boyd was in trouble back in December and cheaper than our September entry but they've turned around nicely and we're up to net $17,175 on the $40,000 spread so there's still $22,825 (132%) of upside potential and we're already up almost 100% from our original entry in just 5 months.  Meanwhile, we can collect $2,125 by selling 5 of the June $75 calls for $4.25 – so a nice little income while we wait.  

  • GOLD – If we didn't already have it, GOLD would have been our Stock of the Year for 2022 as it's a fantastic inflation hedge.  This is Barrick Gold, not the commodity but it may as well be as they tend to move in lockstep.  However, I prefer  holding GOLD to Gold because GOLD MAKES $2Bn a year while Gold just sits there and looks pretty.  This is a $30,000 spread at net $8,700 despite being $14,200 in the money – THAT is why I LOVE options!  We have $21,300 (244%) of upside potential at $27, which would put Gold at about $2,200.  

  • HPQ – I guess we were too conservative with our September entry as we're already past out goal.  Still, it's a $20,000 spread that's currently only net $10,210 so $9,790 (95%) left to gain if it just holds $35.   And look how well it held up during the sell-off.  

  • IBM – Our PhilStockWorld 2022 Trade of the Year and we couldn't be prouder as it's already 13% over goal and up 480% from our original $2,600 cash outlay just three months ago.  $115 held during the sell-off so I think we're in good shape.  It's a $30,000 spread currently at net $12,500 so we still have $17,500 (140%) of upside potential if we can simply hold $115.  

  • INTC – Intel was a runner up for Trade of the Year but it didn't have a strong catalyst but, other than that, I love them long-term and they are cheaper now than where we came in at net $825 on this $20,000 spread.  We can take advantage of this by rolling the 20 INTC 2024 $45 calls at $10.08 to 20 INTC 2024 $40 calls at $12.65.  That will cost us $5,140 but it puts us $10,000 deeper in the money and in a better position to sell short calls later.  Now it's a $30,000 spread and our new net is $5,965 so we have $24,035 (402%) of upside potential.   The fact that we originally spent $1,300 on the spread doesn't factor in as it's already a part of the portfolio's overall P&L – we're simply realizing the loss by taking some of our cash and using it to move the position.  

  • MO – Another one of our new trades and already at goal!   Still just net $7,607 on the $15,000 spread leaves us with $7,393 (97%) of upside potential if they can hold onto $50.  

SPWR – This trade has been holding back our whole portfolio but that's more of an opportunity than anything else as people simply don't understand what SunPower is doing.  SPWR is selling their commercial division to TTE for $310M and SPWR's total income for 2022 was projected to be $35M so another $310M will certainly help!  Their market cap at $16 is $2.7Bn.  TTE is the majority owner of SPWR as well (50.83%).  The cash improves SPWR financially and allows them to finance their transition to Consumer, which we already expected.  It's a long-term play and we need to be patient but that doesn't mean we can't make adjustments:

  • Buy back 25 short  2024 $35 calls at $2.09 ($5,225) 
  • Buy back 15 short 2023 $25 calls at $2.11 ($3,158) 
  • Roll 35 2024 $25 calls at $3.65 ($12,775) to 35 2024 $15 calls at $6.75 ($23,625) 

This is a very aggressive adjustment and we're not going to sell short calls into earnings.  We're spending $19,233 but we expect to cover with $35 calls again at at least $6 so that will be $21,000 if all goes well and we'd be back to (or below) our original net $1,100.  Earnings are today so let's hope they go well!  I'm not going to call an upside to this as it's still so unsettled.  

  • VIAC – No THIS would have been our Stock of the Year if we didn't already have it.  Notice this portfolio is full of Stock of the Year contenders.  You have to have the best of the best for a portfolio you can't even touch between quarters!  As it stands, we are $40,000 in the money on this $60,000 spread but only net $23,900 so far so we have $16,100 (67%) of upside potential.

  • WBA – Another new one that's doing well already.  We came in at net $3,875 and now we're at net $6,588 after 3 months but it's a $18,750 spread so we still have $12,162 (184%) upside potential.  

So our current plays, not counting SPWR, have $131,105 of upside potential and we've used $22,248 of our cash to make adjustments.  We have 3 Techs, so no more Tech and that's counting SPWR as Energy and not Tech.  BYD is Entertainment, I guess and so is VIAC then.  MO and WBA are Consumer Sales and HPQ is Tech but Consumer Tech.  So definitely no more Tech!    

We cashed out Pfizer (PFE) not too long ago so, as a new play, I'd like to add the 3x BioTech ETF (LABU), which has been insanely beaten-down recently.  Rather than sell puts in LABU.  Originally, we were going to sell puts in Medtronic (MDT) to offset but selling 5 of the 2024 $90 puts for $9 would only raise $4,500 and obligate us to own 500 shares for $45,000 while selling 15 of the LABU 2024 $20 puts for $9.20 raises $13,800 in exchange for promising to buy 1,500 share for $20 ($30,000) – so a much more efficient way to raise funds.

  • Sell 15 LABU 2024 $20 puts for $9.20 ($13,800)
  • Buy 30 LABU 2024 $10 calls for $13.25 ($39,750) 
  • Sell 25 LABU 2023 $28 calls for $5 ($12,500) 

This configuration will allow us to sell 10 short-term calls, like the June $25 calls for $3.30 ($3,300) to recoup our net $13,450 outlay.  We have 5 uncovered longs and it's unlikely we'd get into trouble with 10 short calls but not yet, as we hope for a move up before we sell more covers.  Also, once the 2023 calls expire, we will be able to sell 2024 calls (or roll the 2023 calls to 2024 calls at higher strikes but, overall, let's just call it a $54,000 spread with $40,550 (301%) of upside potential – that's plenty to add for the quarter!  

That brings our overall upside potential to $171,655 without even counting SPWR and we still have $123,906 of CASH!!! on the sidelines – about 50% of our portfolio.  

We will review our other Member Portfolios in our Live Chat Room this week – join us there!

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. Good morning! 

    I guess I'm not too worried about the markets as I can see my way clear to the above positions without being able to touch them for 3 months.  I originally was looking for something to cut but they are all so good and they are up 40% for the Q, despite all the drama so we'll see how they handle Q2.  I even considered adding a hedge but decided they don't need it.  $40,000 of Q1 gains is already a hedge.  

    I'm just finishing up my LTP check and now a full review is coming, but first I have to do my pre-interview for BNN and there will be no Webinar today as I have to save my voice for the taping.  

    Indexes looking weak at the open and 14,700 still not accomplished.  All that matters is whether or not we can flip boxes – otherwise we ignore the "rallies" and the sell-offs:

       
    • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
    • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
    • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
    • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)

    No change from yesterday.  

    NG $4.54!

    Someone remind me next time not to take profits so soon!  


  3. Phil / LABU

    Ive recently gotten into a spread and do like the upside.  I have found, however that LABU really tracks the Nas. It seems to be moving like a growth stock fund. Curious about your thesis beyond the fact it's very low (I agree)

    Thanks!


  4. Morning. A giant OUCH for VIAC.  Earnings didn't seem so bad and it's evident they are transitioning to a streaming service with a large bump in subscriptions.  


  5. Phil/DIDI – Have some short puts in the money. I was thinking of taking the stock and rolling it over into the HK listing. I'm down about 15% from my BE, but I think the company will grow nicely over the LT once we get past this period. I understand the risk  here with the HK listing, timing etc. Appreciate a sanity check here. Thanks.


  6. Retail sales surge 3.8% in Jan. as threat of omicron eases


  7. Phil / VIAC – I'm coign tot the realization that VIAC has an incredibly ( read 3 to 7 years) long runway to proving they can grow profitable and compete with the larger streaming service…..  They have an incredibly tough hill to climb given they have to outlay really 6 to 9 B / year to compete with the likes of NFLX, DIS, Prime, AAPl and the new ATT – to name a few….  This seems like a a touch hill to climb….    would like your thoughts on this….

    ViacomCBS press release (NASDAQ:VIAC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 misses by $0.19.

    Revenue of $8B (+16.4% Y/Y) beats by $510M.

    Shares -1%.

    Quarterly Global Streaming Revenue Grew 48% Year-Over-Year to $1.3 Billion, Driven by Strength in Subscription and Advertising

    Added a Record 9.4M Global Streaming Subscribers, Overwhelmingly Led By Paramount+, to Reach Over 56M Subscribers in the Quarter, and Achieved 84% Year-Over-Year Growth in Streaming Subscription Revenue.

    Added 10M Pluto TV Global Monthly Active Users (MAUs) to Reach Over 64M and Grew Revenue by 45% Year-Over-Year

     




  8. Oil inventories not a big deal:

    VIAC – Wow, so much for those profits.  Down 21% on earnings miss (revenue beat).  Still made 0.26 but 0.45 expected.  

    ViacomCBS (VIACVIACA), soon to become Paramount Global as the company goes all-in on streaming, fell sharply in premarket trading on Wednesday as traders digested its investor day and Bank of America downgraded the stock on increased risk on a "swinging for the fences" mentality.

     

    Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich lowered her rating to neutral from buy and cut her price target to $39, down from $52, noting that the firm's bullish thesis was "largely predicated on being a potential attractive target amid a wave of industry consolidation." With this view off the table for a while given the company's streaming aspirations, the firm is "heading to the sidelines" as spending on streaming content impacts free cash flow and operating incomes over the next couple of years.

    "We commend management for taking a bold approach, but near term headwinds will drive Y/Y declines in CY22 and CY23 OIBDA and pressure already depressed FCF levels," Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note to clients.

    "While subscribers have outperformed expectations, and should be robust in 2022, the long term margin guidance (low/mid 20%) for direct-to-consumer business will not be achieved until the back half of this decade while the legacy business is under continuing pressure."

    Let the babies bail.  

    DID/Seer – I like them.  They have less competition than Uber/Lyft in their area (Asia) and they've passed their regulatory hurdles, apparently.

    If they were not delisting I'd want to add them to our portfolios.

    VIAC/Batman – I believe in what they are doing.  Old-school broadcasting is dead so they have to transition.  They have the content and they are building the subscriber base and they are not starting from scratch.  All the other guys you named need to build production studios.  Also, all this is coming off still-closed theatrical markets.  They will fly higher once things normalize.  Even the analyst who downgraded them had our target of $40 ($39).


  9. VIAC.  So far there have been 7300 Jan24 $30 puts traded around $7.70.    Even the $27.50’s are $6.00.   I’m selling a few 


  10. Rare Earth Prices Hit Record High in China






  11. Fusion….  I wonder if LMT is still working on it ?   


  12. Phil, I think you are sci-fi fan?  The Expanse on Prime is really good  6 seasons to watch    imo


  13. Any feedback on TX?  I have a short 35P, with a $35/$45 BCS in a 1:2 ratio that I opened for net $0 a few months back.  It was doing great for quite a while until today's fall.  I'm pretty much back to my entry point but wondering if this is an overreaction?

    My read on their outlook seems pretty positive going forward but all the headlines are calling "negative guidance" since they are pointing down for next Q but this seems to be a, "if the automotive sector ever gets some chips, we're going to blast off"

    Outlook

    Following an outstanding 2021, during which Ternium achieved record profitability and successfully completed its capacity expansion program, the company expects to deliver solid performance in 2022, despite a business environment with gradually normalizing steel prices and margins, supported by the ongoing ramp-up of the new hot-rolling mill in its Pesquería facility.

    In the USMCA region, supply chain disruptions continue to affect several manufacturing industries' input procurement. For the automotive industry specifically, ongoing semiconductor scarcity is causing low unit inventory levels and significant pent-up demand. During 2022, Ternium anticipates this situation to gradually adjust and drive increased apparent steel demand in the region that, coupled with a decrease in steel imports, should cause declining steel prices to stabilize during the first half of the year.

    In Argentina, shipments remained at relatively stable levels during 2021, and the company expects this to continue in the first quarter, driven by healthy activity in the construction, agribusiness and automotive industries. The outlook for the Argentine market in 2022, however, remains significantly uncertain, given the unstable macroeconomic variables that persist in the country.

    Ternium expects a sequential decrease in EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022, primarily resulting from lower margins, partially offset by higher shipments in the USMCA region.


  14. stockbern,

    The Expanse is excellent!  Really liked Foundation too.


  15. The Expanse is epic! 


  16. Still haven't watched foundation. Does it follow the books?


  17. Phil,

    Any thoughts on the drop in CROX after 4Q good numbers (eps up 13%, rev up 1%) this AM?

    Thanks


  18. Good Fellas, let's talk about a 10-year climate change / decarbonization portfolio.

    For starters, I'm thinking:

    Full share stake: KRBN, TAN, FAN, LIT, GRID, PBD [diversified ETF's]

    Half share stake: CCJ, LCID, RIVN, CHPT, OXY, QS, NEE, BEP [individual picks that could out-perform, but the are existing, established co's]

    1/4 share stake: [moonshots, diamonds in the rough and penny stocks?] e.g., DCRD, ACTD [SPACs, there's a 100 of these]

    TSLA is an obvious choice, but currently overplayed IMO.

    I don't like solar and wind all that much. Renewable energy is sort of a race to the bottom. The energy free, after all. Decarbonization is like the gold, getting CO2 into the ground is the new gold rush. But that's not really where the money is. In the real gold rush the real money was made in the services around the gold rush, blue jeans, pick axes and prostitutes. The services. I'm trying to find the services to decarbonization. Where the margins are. Let's get a good portfolio going and continue to build on it and track it.


  19.  Bio, I’m all in.  I really like the idea, and the  services side make a lot of sense.  I’ll look around and see if I can interest a group in a fund …perhaps .  Then we can include your battery startup.   Just thinking off the top of my head.  


  20. stockbern – a fantastic idea


  21. Also, I just emailed to me that there is massive demand tailwinds building in automotive demand.   It seems every dealer lot I pass I’d empty. Sure , if you wasn’t a car badly enough you can order one, but if you need one now you are SOL


  22. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP):  $2,304,603 (up 361%) is up slightly this morning from $2,297,421 at 11:37 yesterday.  The S&P was 4,460 and now 4,440 so my theory that the VIX (was 29, now 26) was hurting us more than the market seems right. Overall, we're down from $2,364,229 on Jan 19th, but our combined STP/LTP was $2,518,702 that day and this morning the STP is at $413,373 for a combined $2,717,976 so we are up $199,274 for the month and up $2,177,976 (362%) from our $600,000 start on 10/28/20.  Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen!  

    As usual, I'd love to cash everything out but, as usual, these are positions that have already run the gauntlet in a market I have no faith in – so it's hard to let go and our hedges seem to be in very good shape protecting up (they were all of this month's gains) but hope springs eternal and maybe I'll find some things I can bear to part with this month:

    • Short Puts – My worry is that there are now 27 of them and, if the Russell fails to hold 2,000 and the Nasdaq 14,100, then we will have to take losses but, so far, we're up overall and the question is, what's iffy?  
    • BA – Certainly want to own them for net $170.  If we weren't worried about the overall market – I'd want to add a bull spread.  
    • COIN – Same, I'd rather buy them than shut it down.  Net $170 here as well isn't even close to trouble so the paper loss is just silly – great for a new entry.  
    • LABU – We just added them to the MTP.  Net $23 is our entry and I'm fine with that by the year end.  I guess we do have to add the spread here so let's buy 50 of the 2024 $20 calls for $9 ($45,000) and sell 40 of the 2023 $30 calls for $4.20 ($16,800) and we'll sell short calls when they bounce a bit.  As we make money selling short calls, we'll either roll the long down or the short calls up so our net cost remains around $30,000 while we widen the $50,000 spread (which is net $20,000 with the put sale).  

    • W – How did we end up with this in the LTP too?  I guess we had that short play here as well.  Well, we're in for net $135ish and that's where it is so no real loss to us unless they are under it and it's 2023 so we can roll them – the 2024 $150 puts are $50 and the $105 puts are $25 so possible 2x roll to there but the problem is I don't like W.  I just don't hate them enough to want to escape owning them at $135.  So we wait.  

    • TROX – They are getting bought so just waiting.
    • CIM – We have two sets of short puts but what would be bad about owning 4,000 more shares when they pay a 10% dividend?  We're over target anyway.  
    • APO – Over target.
    • BABA – I think the worries about China are stabilizing and there's certainly no harm in rolling the 10 short Jan $200 puts at $77.28 ($77,280) to 15 of the 2024 $150 puts at $46 ($69,000).  That lowers our target by 25% and the net $8,280 cost of the roll means we're in the new short puts for net $24,970 or $16.64/share so net $133.35 would be our worst-case – about where they are now.   It would cost $10 to roll the $140 calls to the $120s and I'm not $40,000 confident just yet.  We'll be happy enough if they just get back in the money from here – especially with our $44,000 put loss.   "Not losing can be just as good as winning!"  

    • BIG – Disappointing so far.  They had great earning but projected down for Q1 due to Omicron so I say just wait them out.  Again, they are almost all candidates to roll but, even with $1.7M in CASH!!! – I don't want to spend it all on improving our positions if the targets are still obtainable.
    • BNTX – BIG traders worry the virus will impact their business and BNTX traders worry the virus will go away.  No one is ever happy….  It's not about the virus but the fact that BNTX made $7.5Bn last year and will make $8.5Bn this year on shots that are already in the pipeline and that money will pay for years and years of development for this $40Bn company.  Also, we have a very conservative $200 target.  

    • BYD – Blasted over $70 already so way ahead of schedule.  We will roll the march calls when we have to.
    • CAKE – Great for a new trade.  About $2,000 on the $60,000 spread that's $18,000 in the money.  This should be our whole portfolio!  

    • CLF – I don't see how war would be bad for these guys.

    • DAL – My 2nd favorite airline took off.  
    • DOW – That one was so obvious.
    • FB – I can't believe we're not short on them.  This is a butterfly trade – it's all about selling those short calls as the Jans are net $690 so each sale is profit and we should bring in about $20,000 this year so, as long as the puts don't kill us, it's a nice little money-maker.
    • GILD – Holding up well vs the sector but we also had a great entry and picked a conservative target - hard to lose.  In this case, I want to take advantage of the dip and roll the 10 Jan $50 calls at $12.73 ($12,730) to 20 of the 2024 $50s at $13.25 ($26,500) and sell 10 of the 2024 $65 calls for $5.50 ($11,000) to help pay for it.  We can also buy back the 2023 $50 puts for $1,378 and sell 10 of the 2024 $60 puts for $9.20 ($9,200) so, on the whole, we're putting $5,052 in our pockets and doubling the size of the position and we'll collect even more money once the short Jan $65s run out.

    • HAL – Good time to be in the Oil business!  Let's cash out the calls and leave the short puts.  
    • HBI – Good time to be in the underwear business too!  The short calls are way up so let's buy those back ($3,100) and see if we get a bounce so we can sell some 2024 covers.   If $15 doesn't hold, we can sell 2024 $15 calls (now $3.10) and use that money to roll our $10s (now $6) down to the $5s (now $10.50) but, of course, only if the roll drops to about $2.50. 
    • HPQ – Home run on this one.  The bull spread is $17,000 out of $20,000 but the short $30s are deep in the money, so hard to adjust.  Overall, its net $15,472 on the $20,000 spread so a very boring way to make $4,528 this year. 
    • IBM #1 – Much more exciting as we were nice and aggressive with our Trade of the Year.   Still just net $25,525 out of $75,000 potential so 200% upside on a trade that's 100% in the money already.  Aren't options fun?  
    • IBM #2 – The idea was to uses this higher spread to take profits on the lower spread – but not yet.  

    • INTC – They are in an investment cycle this year so we're not expecting much.  We just don't want to miss it when they pop.  Only net $17,150 on the $80,000 spread that's $32,000 in the money.
    • KHC – Just had great earnings.  Easy to sneak price increase into food:  Slightly smaller condiment jars, shorter Oscar Mayer wieners, on less slice of Velveeta, a few less Planters Nuts….  
    • LMT – Our Stock of the Century is doing well as they are cranking out F35s and still working towards a commercial fusion reactor in 3 years.  Unfortunately, the project has gone from secretive to TOP SECRET thanks to DOD and DOE funding and now we have an FES (Fusion Energy Services) Department as well.  Hopefully this is happening folks.  Meanwhile this is a $70,000 spread that's 100% in the money at net $30,200 – plenty of money to pay the energy bills while we wait.  

    • MO – $25,000 in the money on the $75,000 60% covered spread.  We're supposed to sell short calls so let's sell 15 June $50 calls for $2.40 ($3,600) as they certainly can't hurt us (we can always roll them).  
    • MRNA – I still have faith in our put targets but let's spend $50,770 to buy back the short 2024 $250 calls and see if $150 holds up.  If it does, we'll re-cover at some point and, if it doesn't, we'll sell lower calls and roll our longs down.

    • MU – 120% in the money on the net $40,000 spread yet you can still buy it for $22,775.   So silly….

    • PAA – Pays us a lovely $1,440 quarterly dividend and the position cost us $54,000 so 10.6% while we wait to be called away at $85,000 for another $31,000 profit.  I know – so boring!  
    • PFE – Kind of dull here too as we're playing for the 1-year advantage but on track to far.   Since we're up 60% on the short Jan $55s – let's buy them back and see what happens.  These are the kinds of things you can do when you have $1.7M in cash and sensibly-sized positions!  
    • PHM – They are actually $16,000 in the money on the $30,000 spread but it's net $11,350.  I guess no one wants them with well over 100% upside potential this year.  

    • QSR – Just had nice earnings.  Still waiting for them to get closer to $70 before covering. 
    • RIO – We nailed the entry on this one.  10% over goal at net $19,250 out of $45,000.  

    • SKT – My beloved!   We cashed out the original play and a loss so far on the new entry and the 2024 $20 calls at $2.18 can be rolled to the $15 calls at $4 for $1.88 ($33,840) and we have a 1/3 cover on the calls, which is fine for now but we do owe ourselves $33,840 at some point.

    • SPWR – Super-aggressive and now working yet but the $10 calls are fine and no desire to cover.  
    • T – Damn, I want to buy more!  We can buy back the short April calls – no point to them.  Then we'll sell something else when they bounce again. 
    • TD – They have blasted to the moon so we're miles in the money and it's net $21,200 and we should end up with a $40,000 spread at least after rolling the short calls.  No worries at the moment.
    • VALE – We were super-aggressive here and it paid off.  Let's sell 20 of the June $17 calls for $1.40 ($2,800) just to pick up some cash.  We can roll them to 2x something much higher or we can sell 20 more of something else so still very flexible, but $2,800 richer.  

    • VIAC – Took a tumble today and we should wait for the downgrade police before stepping in but, since we KNOW we're sticking with them, we may as well roll our 50 2024 $25 calls at $8.68 to 50 of the 2024 $15 calls at $14.50 for net $5.82, which is a bit more than we like to spend but we don't know if we'll get another opportunity and it's all intrinsic (in the money) value we're buying – $50,000 for $29,100 and that wider spread enables us to sell more short calls for the next two years.  
    • VTOL – Betting on flying cars.  Same price as we came in.  
    • WPM – Seems obvious with all the inflation.   So much so we have two sets.  

    • X – Getting on track and we have a very conservative target.  Only net $5,212 on the $36,000 spread!  Great for a new trade – even though it's 150% over our entry.  
    • YETI – I thought $70 would hold but it didn't.  Earnings are tomorrow, so we'll see.  

    See, they are too good to cut.  Hopefully the market doesn't collapse.


  23. GOLD/Phil  My GOLD position finally went green, been waiting to sell some cover calls  .. would you suggest it might be better to roll out to '24 now or  just sell some '23 calls on this pop?

    30 '23 $15 calls ($70)

    - 10 '23 $20 puts ($3.2)

    Thx!


  24. Wow that auto correct was way off.   I meant to say that it seems to me…


  25. Phil, I knew you were working on the LTP review,  Sorry for all the distracting comments.  I’m sitting in the beach ( well pool actually)  in Cabo and have  some time on my hands 


  26. OMG – that really hurts my brain!  

    LMT/Scott – See above.  They went dark when the Government jumped in.  That also means it's probably getting lots of funding.  They are working on small-scale fusion as opposed to the huge reactors they are building in Europe and such for Billions.  If LMT can pull off a $200M fusion reactor we can stick in a battleship and fire lasers (which Israel has shown are great missile interceptors) – we gain massive superiority so you can see why DOD moved right in.  

    Best Iron Dome GIFs | Gfycat

    That's the Iron Dome in action.  Blows up a missile before it can go anywhere.  

    Integrated Air and Missile Defense | Lockheed Martin

    Expanse/Stock, JPH, Malsg – I looked at it and the premier wasn't doing it for me so I never went back but I guess I better try again!   Star Trek Discovery and Picard are both great on Paramount and I just watched Daredevil on Netflix as they are taking it off soon and that's a really good show.  The bad guy is fantastic.  

    TX/JPH – It's a very iffy industry and I generally stick with MT, CLF and X in order of favorites.  TX isn't even a consideration for me.  It's silly, they missed by 0.14 and made $5.08 so the miss is meaningless and revenues we're off almost 10% so you should be applauding management's ability to maintain earnings under pressure rather than selling them off.  Keep in mind that's $5.08 per $37.50 share at the moment – for the quarter!   That's tracking $20 for the year but guidance is off, of course.  I don't think I'd worry about your position – just give them another Q and, if no good, you can roll the $35s back a year along with the puts.

    Foundation/JPH – Also good.   One of my favorite authors.  

    Foundation/Rn – The whole first season barely got into the first book and no, they took a lot of liberties – it's more like the concept of Foundation rather than a true adaptation.  I haven't read it since I was a kid – I didn't want to ruin the show but I look forward to reading it again for comparison.

    CROX/8800 – Been a while since we played them.  They are a $6Bn company now – that's crazy!  Making about $550M a year so $6Bn is very fair but they sold off anyway.  I think they gave too good guidance and expectations were too high but nothing wrong with them.  Still, I'd let them find a bottom but this is a good entry point.

    At the moment, we can:

    • Sell 10 CROX 2024 $65 puts for $12 ($12,000) to net in for $53 – about half the current price.  
    • Buy 10 2024 $75 calls for $40 ($40,000) 
    • Sell 10 2024 $125 calls for $21 ($21,000) 

    That would be net $7,000 on the $50,000 spread that's $20,000 in the money – so a good place to start.  Let's add that to the Earnings Portfolio, which has plenty of cash.

    Also, in the LTP, let's sell 10 of those 2024 $65 puts for $12 – because who doesn't like $12,000?  


  27. Good idea BDC – It has to happen for the planet at some point.  Not doing anything is becoming too expensive of an option.  

    Cars/Stock – Essentially, they are being bought before they even hit the lot so no sitting inventory but not an actual shortage yet (you may not get the model you want but you can get a car).  Of course, that means dealers can shove all the options down your throat too – so good profits ahead.  

    GOLD/Wing – Well, your Jan $15s are $7.50 and the 2024 $15s are $8 so, would i spend 0.50 for another year of gains?  For sure.  The $10s are $12.20 so not worth a roll so that settles that.  As to covering, you can sell the 2024 $25s for $3.25 or the 2023 $25s for $1.85 or the July $25s for $1 – I'd start with selling 20 (2/3) of the July $85s to pay for the roll and, if GOLD can't hold $22 – then you can sell 20 2024 $25s as well and see how things go.  

    Seems to me/Stock – Oldie but goody.  

    Review/Stock – Yeah, don't mind me – YOU have fun!  wink


  28. Decarbonization Fund from the internets. Targeting 10-15% per year. I'd be looking for 30-50%. Over a shorter timeframe though; I think "decarb," as a I call it, blows up over the next half-decade.



  29. Flying Taxis Steal Limelight at Airshow as Clean Future Beckons


  30. Wow, what a save off the Fed minutes.  

       

    Still a flat, nothing day but nice recovery.  

       

    Unless, of course, you zoom out:

       

    Then we are still in trouble with failing "W"s.


  31. Oil did not like that inventory report:

        


  32. PFE +0.09%Feb. 16, 2022 3:18 PM ET2 Comments

    • Slower-than-expected data gathering has forced COVID-19 vaccine makers Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) to delay the delivery of their Omicron-specific shot by several weeks, according to BioNTech Chief Executive Officer Ugur Sahin.
    • Once the vaccine is available, the companies would reassess its requirement, Sahin told German newspaper Bild on Thursday in a video interview.
    • "If the wave ends, that does not mean it can't begin again," he added, noting that the German company is capable of designing new vaccines as variants emerge if needed.
    • "I really don't see the situation as dramatic anymore," he argued, citing the potential behavior of the virus in the future.
    • BioNTech (BNTX) has previously targeted the deployment of the vaccine by the end of March. In January, the company with its U.S. partner Pfizer (PFE) announced that the dosing began in their trial for the Omicron-based vaccine candidate.
    NG1:COM +8.92%Feb. 16, 2022 2:44 PM ET3 Comments

    • Henry Hub (NG1:COM) prices were up 10% Wednesday afternoon, supporting gas-linked ETFs, and capping a 21% run from early February lows, as cooler weather was forecast to sweep across much of the Western US.
    • The supply picture is unlikely to be altered by the cooler weather; however, an earnings report from Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK) Tuesday indicated 25% higher capex in 2022 would only drive 6% production growth, perhaps leading some analysts to speculate the medium-term supply picture is a bit more restricted than previously thought.
    • An updated inventory report from the EIA Thursday is likely to provide additional detail on real-time supply / demand dynamics, as US inventories have fallen slightly below the 5yr average following extreme cold weather earlier in the month.
    • Tudor Pickering said Wednesday that "following recent strength in residential/commercial demand and continued solid power generation demand as supplies remained constrained, it’s tough to see too much downside to the 2022 forward curve."
    • With E&P earnings on deck, gas analysts will be focused on capex and production trends from producers like Southwestern (NYSE:SWN), Chesapeake (NASDAQ:CHK) and Range (NYSE:RRC), following disappointing results from EQT (NYSE:EQT).

    NG1:COM +8.92%Feb. 16, 2022 2:52 PM ET

    Natural gas prices (NG1:COM) jump 9% to $4.70/MMBtu on Wednesday afternoon, touching a two-week trading high as concerns about colder weather forecasts are on the horizon for the early part of March, which can impact heating demands. As natural gas prices push higher, so in turn do related ETFs and ETNs.

    The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG), First Trust Natural Gas ETF (NYSEARCA:FCG), and the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UNL) have all pushed higher. UNG is +6.3%, FCG +2.3% and UNL is +5.4%.

    Also, leveraged funds such as ProShares Trust II – ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (NYSEARCA:BOIL) and the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZF) have surged even higher, +12% and +14.7%, respectively.

    Another factor that has natural gas prices edging higher is the continued geopolitical uncertainty between Russia and the Ukraine.

    Natural gas is now +25.7% in 2022, building off its strong 2021 performance, where the commodity returned investors +42%.

    Year-to-date price action: UNG +28%, FCG +18.6%, UNL+24.3%, UGAZF +53.4%, and BOIL +45.9%.

    Furthermore, energy leads all of the S&P sector on the day, rebounding from yesterday's downturn with support from a bounce in oil prices.

    SHOP -17.40%Feb. 16, 2022 2:39 PM ET12 Comments

    Shopify (SHOP -17.4%) plunged in Wednesday trading after guidance from the e-commerce company's created some ripples of worry when a more measured macro environment was described.

    Of note, Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) laid out that the COVID-triggered acceleration of e-commerce that spilled into the first half of 2021 will be absent from 2022, which will make the growth comparisons tougher. Consumer caution around inflation was also pointed to by Shopify (SHOP) execs.

    Shares of Shopify (SHOP) traded at their lowest level since June of 2020.

    The Shopify (SHOP) warning on 2022 revenue growth set off selling pressure around the online retail sector, including drops for eBay, Wayfair and Etsy.

    Oops, we forgot to buy GNRC!  



  33. Munger is a such a total gasbag. Get rich quick and doing nothing for civilization explains exactly the last 50 years of his money-making life, from a certain point of view. Completely discredited is the unique efficiency brought about by digital currencies, there ability to create new money to service economic expansion that fiat currencies are beginning to become too inefficient to do. Completely discredits this new ability to value social movements outright, like climate change, via peer-economics. We're going to solve climate change how? Through municipal bonds? Governments??? Fiat currency controlled by whom, the UN? A new central-UN-government controlled globalization fiat currency? Yeah, I see that happening. On opposite day.

    Imagine sitting there being so close-minded and wanting nothing to ever change. He must be facing his own mortality. "End of life is scary! I don't want anything to change (like, y'know, being alive), protect me government, protect me! Ban cryptocurrency outright!" What a total deuchebag. He doesn't have to worry about climate change. He should keep his wrinkly mouth shut. These kinds of articles really grind my gear.



  34. Feb. 16, 2022 2:07 PM ET43 Comments

    Federal Reserve official agreed that current economic and financial conditions "would likely warrant a faster apace of balance sheet runoff than during the period of balance sheet reduction from 2017 to 2019," according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 25-26 meeting.

    "Participants observed that, in light of the current high level of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, a significant reduction in the size of the balance sheet would likely be appropriate," the minutes said.

    As the Fed statement had said earlier, details of reducing the size of the balance sheet will be determined at upcoming meetings. The committee also appeared to be ready to quicken the pace of removing monetary accommodation if inflation doesn't move down as they expect.

    All three of the major U.S. stock averages pare their declines, with the S&P 500 hitting breakeven, the Nasdaq reducing its decline to 0.4% and the Dow drop narrowing to 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield had spiked up as high as 2.06% before retreating to 2.04%.

    Inflation figured prominently in the minutes, with the word appearing 73 times in the document. The policymakers observed that inflation had broadened to beyond sectors directly affected by the pandemic and was bolstered in part by strong consumer demand. Other factors with the potential to fuel inflation include real wage growth in excess of productivity growth and increases in pricing for housing services.

    Still "participants generally expected inflation to moderate over the course of the year as supply and demand balances ease and monetary policy accommodation is removed."

    And some of the officials noted that longer-term measures of inflation expectations "appear to remain well anchored."

    As Chair Jerome Powell had said during the press conference after the meeting, uncertainty over the path of inflation is elevated with risks weighted to the upside.

    " Uncertainty about real activity was also seen as elevated. Various participants noted downside risks to the outlook, including a possible worsening of the pandemic, the potential for escalating geopolitical tensions, or a substantial tightening in financial conditions."

    Some of the policymakers saw emerging risks to financial stability related with the rapid growth in crypto-assets and decentralized finance platforms. "A few participants pointed to risks associated with highly leveraged, nonbank financial institutions or the potential vulnerability of prime money market funds to a sudden withdrawal of liquidity."

    While the committee decided to keep the pace of tapering net asset purchases on track to end in early March, a couple of participants favored ending them sooner, "to send an even stronger signal that the Committee was committed to bringing down inflation."

    "A number of participants" said that conditions would likely warrant starting to shrink the balance sheet "sometime later this year.

    There's now a 55.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the March FOMC meeting and 44.3% probability of a 50bps hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A day ago, there was a 41.1% probability of a quarter-point rate hike and 58.9% probability of a half-point increase.

    Recall the highlights of the Fed's statement on Jan. 26: Policymakers said it would soon be appropriate to raise rates; the central bank will end tapering of asset purchases in early March; and it expects to start shrinking its balance sheet after it starts raising rates.

    In the post-decision press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there's "quite a bit of room" to raise rates.

    JNJ +0.02%Feb. 16, 2022 1:31 PM ET28 Comments

    • As a trial continues this week on whether Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.6%) can use bankruptcy to handle talc claims against it, at least one lawmaker is attacking the drugmaker's plan.
    • On the Senate floor Tuesday, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) called J&J's "Texas Two-Step" legal maneuver "shameful."
    • The strategy is designed to protect a company's assets while trying to minimize potential payouts in legal actions by avoiding jury trials.
    • "It allows massively wealthy corporations whose products caused harm to avoid paying damages to the victims of that harm and it denies the victims their right to make their case in court and be judged by a jury of their peers," Durbin said of the Texas Two-Step in a statement.
    • In his speech, the senator highlighted Kimberly Naranjo, a mesothelioma victim who testified at a Senate hearing last week about her inability to hold J&J responsible in court.
    • Seeking Alpha contributor Out of Ignorance explains how J&J's legal strategy might play out.

    CHWY -7.85%Feb. 16, 2022 1:27 PM ET17 Comments

    Shopify (SHOP -18.2%) rattled the e-commerce sector on Wednesday with a warning issued alongside its earnings report of a more measured macro environment due to the absence of government stimulus and some consumer caution on inflation.

    Notable decliners included Etsy (ETSY -6.4%), eBay (EBAY -4.0%), Chewy (CHWY -9.0%), Solo Brands (DTC -7.4%), Fiverr International (FVRR -10.8%), ThredUp (TDUP -4.6%), Farfetch (FTCH -5.8%), Carvana (CVNA -4.4%), Poshmark (POSH -3.2%), MercadoLibre (MELI -5.7%) and Wayfair (W -9.8%). Many of those retailers are due to post earnings of their own over the next few weeks.

    The selling pressure is not impacting Amazon (AMZN +0.3%), which is outperforming on the day.

    Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) slumped to a 52-week low of $720.00 before recovering a bit. So far, Wall Street bulls have dug in and defended the potential for SHOP to recover sharply in the second half of the year.

    Dig into the Shopify earnings report.

    GD +1.02%Feb. 16, 2022 12:41 PM ET54 Comments

    The Dept. of Defense is concerned that consolidation in the defense industry could be harmful to national security.

    Consolidation in the 1990s "significantly reduced competition" for U.S-based prime contractors from 51 in 1993 to 5 now, including Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Raytheon (NYSE:RTX), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Boeing (NYSE:BA) and General Dynamics (NYSE:GD), according to a new report from the Defense Dept on Tuesday.

    "Since the 1990s, the defense sector has consolidated substantially, transitioning from 51 to 5 aerospace and defense prime contractors," the Defense Dept said in the report. "As a result, DoD is increasingly reliant on a small number of contractors for critical defense capabilities. Consolidations that reduce required capability and capacity and the depth of competition would have serious consequences for national security."

    The report highlighted the hypersonic weapon systems sector, which currently has only one prime contractor.

    The Defense Dept. comments come after Lockheed Martin (LMT) abandoned its $4.4B purchase of Aerojet Rocketdyne (NYSE:AJRD) on Sunday night after the U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal on antitrust grounds last month.

    The comments also follow the Biden administration's focus on competition following an executive order from the President in July focused on looking at current merger guidelines in different industries such as big tech and banking. Last month the U.S. Justice Department and FTC announced that they are asking for public comment on potential revisions to merger guidelines.

    Raytheon Technologies (RTX) CEO Greg Hayes acknowledged last month after the FTC sued to block the Aerojet/Lockheed deal that consolidation in the defense/aerospace sector is unlikely at this point.

    "We understand the difficulty of getting deals done today in the defense space," Hayes, who's company Raytheon (RTX) was a critic of the AJRD/LMT combination, said in an interview on CNBC last month. "Probably further consolidation is not on the table in the near term."

    Also see last month, Mercury Systems (NASDAQ:MRCY) sale prospects may have dimmed.

    COWN +3.73%Feb. 16, 2022 12:39 PM ET

    • Cowen (NASDAQ:COWN) stock rose 2.7% in midday trading on Wednesday after the investment firm boosted its dividend by 20% and Q4 results easily beat the average analyst estimate.
    • Cowen (COWN) boosted its quarterly cash dividend to $0.12 per share from $0.10, payable on March 15.
    • Q4 economic operating EPS of $2.77 topped the $1.90 consensus estimate while it fell from $4.58 in the year-ago period.
    • The company's assets under management of $15.8B increased by $1.0B at Sept. 30, 2021.
    • Tangible book value per share of $26.56 at Dec. 31, 2021 fell from $29.17 per share at Sept. 30, 2021.
    • During the quarter, Cowen (COWN) repurchased a record $159.8M of its common stock, or 4.37M shares, under its existing share repurchase program. It also acquired $40.4M of stock as a result of net share settlements related to the vesting of equity awards, amounting to 1.06M shares. As of Feb. 15, the company has ~$43.5M available under the stock repurchase program.
    • Q4 total revenue of $494.3M fell from $591.7M in Q4 2020. Investment banking revenue fell by $2.3M to $263.8M; brokerage revenue of $141.0M rose by $8.0M, and Q4 investment income fell by $84.7M to $12.5M.
    • Q4 total expenses of $373.3M dropped from $400.4M a year ago. Compare Cowen's income sheet with previous quarters' results on the Financials tab.
    • A Citizens Financial survey says relatively small-sized investment banks like Cowen (COWN) could benefit from a robust M&A market this year.


  35. LZB -17.82%Feb. 16, 2022 12:25 PM ET

    La-Z-Boy Incorporated (LZB -18.8%) slumped in Wednesday trading after the company reported FQ3 revenue and EPS short of analyst expectations. Shares tracked down to a new 52-week low of $29.04.

    The company said a shortage of component parts, along with a record levels of COVID absenteeism in January and hiring challenges, contributed to the softer-than-anticipated quarter. Also of note, a 14-week COVID-related shutdown in Vietnam impacted dramatically impacted sales and profitability in the casegoods import business for a short period of time.

    On Wall Street, Sidoti lowered its price target on LZB to $53 from $59.

    During the earnings call, La-Z-Boy (NYSE:LZB) execs dived into some of the supply chain and labor strategies the company is enacting. Read the full LZB earnings call transcript.

    Feb. 16, 2022 12:29 PM ET4 Comments

    All children aged five to 11 years in the U.K. will be offered Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine from April, the government confirmed on Wednesday.

    The decision follows the advice issued by the country’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

    According to the JCVI guidance, two doses of Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) pediatric vaccine should be made available for children aged five – 11 years with a gap of at least 12 weeks between the doses.

    Announcing the decision, U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: “The JCVI advice follows a thorough review by our independent medicines regulator, the MHRA, which approved Pfizer’s pediatric vaccine as safe and effective for children aged five to 11.”

    “Children without underlying health conditions are at low risk of serious illness from COVID-19,” he added.

    In the U.K., COVID-19 vaccines are already on offer in this age group for at-risk kids and those living with immunologically weaker people. According to Javid, the non-urgent offer will be extended to all children during April.

    The country has lagged the U.S. and several neighboring EU nations in rolling out COVID-19 vaccines for kids. Many EU states cleared COVID-19 vaccines for 5–11-year-olds in December.

    So far, the U.S. has vaccinated about 10M kids with the Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine after it was cleared by the FDA in October.

    BTC-USD +0.11%Feb. 16, 2022 11:51 AM ET11 Comments

    • Colorado will accept a "wide variety" of cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin (BTC-USD) and ethereum (ETH-USD), for tax payments by the end of the summer, Governor Jared Polis told CoinDesk TV on Wednesday.
    • “For consumer convenience, we want to accept payment in a wide variety of cryptocurrencies, just as we do in credit cards,” Polis highlighted.
    • Meanwhile, the state is on the hunt for companies to handle digital asset transactions. “We don’t want to take the speculative risk of holding crypto, so we will be having a transactional layer there,” Polis added.
    • Remember last year Polis hinted the idea of Colorado accepting cryptos for tax and other payments to the state.
    • Looking at intra-day price action, bitcoin (BTC-USD -1.1%) edges lower to $43.6K per token and ethereum (ETH-USD -1.1%) slides to $3K.
    • Earlier in February, Uber's (NYSE:UBER) CEO said his company will accept crypto "at some point" in the future.

    AAPL +0.19%Feb. 16, 2022 11:22 AM ET78 Comments

    TX -11.22%Feb. 16, 2022 11:04 AM ET3 Comments

    Ternium (TX -12.7%) is trading down after the company missed estimates for Q4 earnings and revenue and projected a sequential decrease in Q122 EBITDA.

     

    Revenue fell 6% sequentially and 68% Y/Y TO ~$4.33B, missing analysts estimates by $320M.

    Shipments dipped 8% sequentially to 2.8M, mainly due to lower steel shipments in Mexico partially offset by higher steel volumes in the Other Markets region.

    Operating income amounted to $1.4B, with EBITDA totaling $1.5B. EBITDA per ton was $532.3, down $80.1 from record-high EBITDA per ton in the previous quarter mainly reflecting higher costs of purchased slabs and raw materials, partially offset by higher realized steel prices.

    Earnings per ADS came to $5.08, also missing analysts estimates.

    In full year 2021, the steel maker generated EBITDA of $5.9B, highest on record, on steel shipments of 12.1M tons, with EBITDA margin of 36% and EBITDA per ton of $485.9.

    Steel shipments of 12.1M tons were up 705,000 tons compared to shipment levels in 2020 reflecting the ramp-up of Ternium's new facilities in Colombia and Mexico, and a recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic activity and steel demand in 2020.

    Net sales grew 84% Y/Y to $16.1B, while earnings per ADS were $19.49 vs. $3.97 in 2020.

    The company ended the year with net cash position of $1.2B (vs. net debt position of $0.4 billion at the end of Dec. 2020). Additionally, the firm's Board of directors proposed that an annual dividend of $0.26 per share ($2.60 per ADS).

    Outlook: Ternium expects a sequential decrease in EBITDA in Q122, mainly due to lower margins, partially offset by higher shipments in the USMCA region. Overall, it expects to deliver solid performance in 2022.


  36. SCHYY +4.78%Feb. 16, 2022 11:02 AM ET1 Comment

    S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating on Las Vegas Sands (LVS +0.1%) and subsidiary Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY +4.2%) to BB+ from BBB-.

    The ratings agency warned that a slower recovery in Macau in 2022 will cause LVS's leverage to reach about 7X at the end of this year, which stands about the 4X downgrade threshold at the previous BBB- rating level.

    "We revised our base-case forecast for Macau because we believe that the resumption of travel between Macau and Mainland China in 2022 will be slower than we initially anticipated amid rising Omicron cases and tightening junket activity. We believe the mass gaming segment will recover over the long term given China's growing middle class's high propensity to game, improving infrastructure between Mainland China and Macau, and expanding hotel supply. However, the predictability of the recovery timeline is less certain because it's difficult to assess if China will maintain its policies for zero tolerance of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic's third year."

    S&P forecast that Macau gross gaming revenue will only recover to 30% to 40% of the 2019 level this year vs. an earlier forecast for 60% to 70% recovery.

    See all the valuation metrics on Las Vegas Sands.

    Feb. 16, 2022 10:02 AM ET

    • December Business Inventories: +2.1% M/M to $2,206.7B vs. +1.8% consensus and+1.5 % prior (revised from +1.3%).
    • Sales: -0.7% M/M to $1,717.2 B
    • Inventories/sales ratio of 1.29 at the end of December vs. 1.25 at November-end and 1.35 in December 2020.
    • Earlier, Industrial production blasts through estimates

    Feb. 16, 2022 10:06 AM ET

    • February Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations: 3.6% vs. +3.4% in January.
    • Current economic environment: Sales levels "compared to normal" remain unchanged. Profit margins decreased, though they remain at historically normal levels. Year-over-year unit cost growth increased significantly to 4.0 percent, on average.
    Feb. 16, 2022 9:15 AM ET

    • December Industrial Production+1.4% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus and -0.1% prior (unrevised).
    • Capacity Utilization 77.6% vs. +76.7% consensus and 76.6% prior (revised).
    • Manufacturing Output: +0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and -0.1% prior (revised).

    USO -1.00%Feb. 16, 2022 9:34 AM ET104 Comments

    • During an IEA energy symposium Wednesday, Chief Birol claimed that "very high oil and gas prices are putting a huge burden on economies … with these prices there is a great risk that the global economic recovery will be much weaker than thought."
    • Birol went on to say that the OPEC+ alliance has underproduced quotas by nearly 1mb/d (NYSEARCA:USO), and that "OPEC+ needs to narrow this gap."
    • Elsewhere, Presidents Macron and Xi agreed Wednesday on the need to step up their joint efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, following comments from Iran's Supreme Security Council earlier in the day indicating the 2015 nuclear deal had become an "empty shell."
    • At an energy conference in Riyadh, OPEC General Secretary Itoua said Wednesday that "there is no immediate solution to high prices" as oil-producing countries' capacity to increase supply has been curtailed by a lack of investment.
    • It seems that there is a strong desire from Western leaders for increased oil supplies; however, with shale industry leaders like Continental (NYSE:CLR) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) reporting plans for near zero growth in production during 2022 just this week, and majors Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and BP (NYSE:BP) guiding to flat year on year production in 2022, it's not entirely clear where the additional supplies will come from.

    RBLX -26.81%Feb. 16, 2022 9:11 AM ET47 Comments

    Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares hit the skids early Wednesday, falling more than 20% following the metaverse company's fourth-quarter results that failed to meet Wall Street's expectations.

    At issue was Roblox (RBLXsaying on Tuesday that it lost $0.25 a share, and had total bookings of $770.1 million, during the final three months of 2021. Analysts, however, had forecast the company to lose $0.07 a share, and total bookings of $772 million.

    Roblox (RBLX) said its average daily active users, known as DAUs, reached 49.5 million during the quarter, a 33% gain over the year-ago period. Engagement hours also rose by 28% from a year ago, to 10.8 billion hours.

    At Morgan Stanley, analyst Brian Nowak cut his rating on Roblox's (RBLX) stock to equal weight from overweight, and slashed his stock-price target to $65 a share from $115. Nowak said that Roblox's (RBLX) report "speaks to larger than expected reopening headwinds and forward growth uncertainty for the online gaming platform developer.

    "In effect, Roblox (RBLX) has not been able to retain [or] grow engagement, bookings or users as well as we hoped through reopening," Nowak said.

    Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey, who has a sell rating and $70-a-share price target on Roblox's (RBLX) stock, said the results were disappointing "and could suggest Roblox's core geographies have peaked."

    Roblox (RBLX) also gave look into how business is going this year, saying that revenue in January was between $203 million and $206 million, and bookings came in a range of $220 million and $223 million. Stifel analyst Drew Crum said that while those bookings rose from a year ago, the rate of the gain is concerning.

    Roblox's (RBLX) January bookings represent an increase of 2% to 3% over a year ago, but are well below December's 21% year-over-year rise, and the 23% annual rise in November's bookings. Crum said the slowdown in bookings suggests tough comparisons "in countries such as the U.S. and the U.K., which generate the majority of the monetization for Roblox, along with reopening headwinds."

    Crum holds a buy rating and $110-a-share target price on Roblox's (RBLX).

    In addition to its disappointing report, Roblox (RBLX) was also the subject of a BBC report that found the online gamer hosting several sexually explicit games that could be accessed by minors.

    So FB got as beaten up as RBLX except FB has 3Bn users with $130Bn in sales and $35Bn in profits to fall back on – really not the same thing but they are paying for that name change.  


  37. Maddie (21.5) now uses FB a lot but Jackie (20) is still a TickTok/SnapChat/Instagram person.


  38. LOL BDC.  So you are not a fan?


  39. Crypto

    This is from Charlie Munger today  What biodiesel is referring to with comment above 

    “I’m proud of the fact I’ve avoided it. It’s like some venereal disease … I just regard it as beneath contempt,” Munger said about cryptocurrencies. He asserted that people welcome the tokens because of their usefulness in extortion, kidnapping, tax evasion, and said he admired the Chinese government for banning them.