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Which Way Wednesday – GDP Edition

GDP at 8:30.

The expert panel of leading Economorons believes that the 3rd Revision to Q4 will show we had 7% growth – the same as it was last time but I think a bit will be shaved off as the later Decemeber data had a bit more Covid in it (hard to remember with all the crap that's happened since, isn't it?).  

More to the point, the Atlanta Fed says GDP growth has dropped to 1% in Q1 (Economorons say 3%) so we KNOW GDP is heading lower – it's just a question of when it starts to do so.  What will the market's reaction be?  We'll find out after the 8:30 data.  Oil prices averaged $75 in Oct, Nov and December last year and we've been over $100 all of March and over $80 since the year began but is that good for GDP (we produce a lot of oil) or bad for it (we use a lot of oil)?  

Last night's API Report showed a 3Mb draw in Oil, -1.5Mb of Gasoline and -200,000 barrels of Distillates and that's popped us back from $103 yesterday to $107 this morning but now that the draw is baked in, I like Oil (/CL) Futures short at $107 with tight stops above as we can easiliy drop back to $105, which would be a gain of $2,000 per contract.  

Our indexes have gained so much for the month that we are back to using our Retracement Chart (from the All-Time Highs) as opposed to our Bounce Chart (from 20% corrections), so that's progress – kind of.  Unfortunately, the Retracement Chart still has a lot of red – which means those 20% drops are still in pay.

  • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
  • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
  • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)
   

The Russell is on the cusp so it needs to show us something this week and the Nasdaq is our lagging index otherwise – not even weakly bouncing from it's retracement line at 15,675 (from the original, small pullback in January).  So, if we want to know the Future, we need to think about what catalysts might affect the Nasdaq and Russell over the next few days.

There is a Business Uncertainty Survey at 11am and that is a window into Small Caps.  Tomorrow we have Personal Income and Outlays and the Nasdaq likes to see consumers spending money.  Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls along with PMI and ISM data as well as Construction Spending – those are the reports we'll be looking closely at.


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  1. Reversing Hearing Loss With Regenerative Therapy – Neuroscience News





  2. 118 Pictures To Show What Climate Change Actually Looks Like



  3. Good morning!

    If people can't afford homes at 3% – they are going to be in real trouble at 5% at the end of the year!  

    This is what will lead to a collapse in the housing market.

    Not only that but towns and counties will be raising property taxes to cover inflation and rising labor costs, which also cuts into overall home price affordability.  

    Essentially the affordability index measures how much above the Qualifying Income the Median Family Income is so a higher number means homes are more affordable and $88,114/61,632 is 1.43 – all very simple stuff with a lot of noise around it.

    The main takeaway is that affordability is down 10% from 2019 but Qualifying Income is up 20% and there are assumptions baked into this Index like you don't have other rising expenses like Gasoline, Groceries or Health Care that might detract from your ability to use your rising income to make mortgage payments.  Of course we know, for a fact, that rates will be 5.5% at the end of the year and that's up 57% from 3.5% now so what will that effect be?  Devastating is the answer!  

    As I noted above, Property Taxes are also not being taken into account or the costs of moving, remodeling, furniture, etc that all impact a family's decision to buy a new home as well.  

    Zooming out a bit, you can see how we've gone through an era of very affordable housing that is now coming to a close.  The 140s are levels we've only seen in terrible market downturns – it's a huge warning sign and the Fed raising rates all year means there's pretty much no way this will improve:


  4. NAIL is the builders 3x etf.  Sell a Jan'23 call to finance a bear put spread?


  5. Good Morning.


  6. oh Good Morning and happy belated birthday greetings



  7. Trump’s Treason


  8. EIA not as bad as API and we popped to $108.50 but still a short as it's a silly reaction:

    CL1:COM +3.19%Mar. 30, 2022 10:30 AM ET

        

    NAIL/Stock – I just see the sector as an indicator of trouble ahead.  I wouldn't want to bet on it though.

    Thanks Stock.  First day of year 60 – we'll see how it goes.

    Still waiting for my flying car…


  9. RH (NYSE:RH) CEO Gary Friedman made some waves during the company's earnings conference call when he evoked the memories of the Bear Stearns meltdown during the financial crisis.

    Friedman made the point that he and other retail execs are out in front with warnings on inflation and supply chain pressures as opposed to the non-transparency depicted with Bear Stearns in The Big Short. In RH's case, demand fell back as soon as the Russia-Ukraine headlines hit.

    Friedman said his intention was not to go ahead and scare everyone, although he delivered a shot across the bow of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) and SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY).

    Friedman unplugged: "I just wonder if anybody the Fed has picked up the phone and called a business person and said, hey, what do you think is happening with inflation? How's ocean rates? How is this? How is that? I mean, I think, I don't think anybody really understands what's coming from an inflation point of view, because either businesses are going to make a lot less money, or they're going to raise their prices. And I don't think anybody really understands how high prices are going to go everywhere, in restaurants, in cars and everything. It's — and I think it's going to outrun the consumer. And I think we're going to be in some tricky space."

    RH (RH) fell sharply after its revenue miss overshadowed news of a 3-for-1 stock split. The stock was defended by Wells Fargo earlier in the day.

     


  10. OPEC+ Expected to Rebuff Calls to Replace Lost Russian Oil


  11. LBTYA is interesting.  I think they are flying under the radar due to a complex web of M&A activity and partnerships in Europe with 02 and Virgin Media – so there's no way to effectively judge their current financials but 02 was the 2nd largest Telco in the UK and they are making similar deals in many countries.  Last year they recognized $13.4Bn in profits against a $14Bn market cap but this year will be flat and 2020 they lost $1.6Bn but 2019 they made $11.5Bn – so it's that kind of company.  

    If they had 2024 options, they'd be a no-brainer but, over the short-run (October), anything could happen so I'm just watching out of curiosity.  If something goes wrong and they hit $20 – I'd be pretty interested.

    Also getting no respect is MT, where $32.80 is $30.3Bn in market cap and these guys easily make $4Bn/yr.  They lost $3Bn combined in 2019 and 2020 but made $15Bn last year so more than made up for it.  I still think Infrastructure Spending will be a thing this decade – just look at all the rebuilding Ukraine has to do!  We sold the 2024 $30 puts in the LTP for $7.50 back on Oct 1st and those are still $5.75 and net $24.25 is still good for a new trade but, since we can sell the June $35 calls for $1.75, this makes sense to add in the LTP:

    • Buy 25 MT 2024 $30 calls for $9.25 ($23,125) 
    • Sell 20 MT 2024 $40 calls for $5.50 ($11,000)
    • Sell 10 MT June $35 calls for $1.75 ($1,750) 

    That's net $10,375 but we sold the short puts for $7,500 already so net $2,875 on the $25,000 spread and we've sold $1,750 in short calls using 79 of the 660 we have to sell so let's say we sell 7 more $1,750s for $10,500 – that should work us into a nifty credit over time and it's not likely 5 extra short calls will get us into trouble and if MT really pops – we're more than happy to buy more.  As it stands, the upside potential is $22,125 (a bit less as a new trade but still great) and we could do $10,000 better than that.

    EBAY is interesting.  Slow growth but still under $60, which is $35Bn and these guys make $2.5-3Bn pretty consistently.  I know they are pushing into luxury sales in Europe and Auto Parts in the US – both smart moves.  So, I can't see why I wouldn't want to own them for $50 so I think selling 10 2024 $50 puts for $5.25 ($5,250) is just free money and we can use that in the LTP to buy 20 of the EBAY 2024 $60 ($10)/75 ($6.20) bull call spreads for $3.80 ($7,600) to net into the $30,000 spread for just $2,450 with $27,550 (1,124%) upside potential.   Aren't options fun?  

    TM not getting respect either at $181.25, which is $248Bn and they make 2.7 TRILLION Yen, which has still got to be something in Dollars, right?  We certainly want them if they get cheaper so let's sell 10 of the TM 2024 $140 puts in the LTP for $9.50 ($9,500) since we'd love to get that for our initial entry and, if not, thanks for the $9,500!  





  12. RH/Nom – Good honesty and he's 100% right, there's no easy landing ahead.  We love RH but they got so expensive so I'd be thrilled if they come down more.  $338 is $8.3Bn and they make $700M and their customers can afford some pass-through so already back to a reasonable price but we used to play them below $100 – so hard for me to get excited at $338.

    April 13th, 2020 at 12:00 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    H/Jby – Yeah, I hate it when they go up so fast as it puts me in an annoying position.  Logically, making 50% in a short time is tempting to take off the table but we had a 700% upside potential on the trade – so it's not very surprising to make 10% of our goal on a bounce, is it?  

    We took the $85/125 bull call spread last week with the short $110 puts and we're almost in the money already but the spread is net $17,650 out of a potential $80,000 and the margin required is very low with just 5 short puts so the question is, do you have anything better to do with $17,650 than make $62,350 (353%) between now and Jan 2022?  And, if you do – is it more of a sure thing than RH hitting $125?  

    RH Long Call 2022 21-JAN 85.00 CALL [RH @ $121.23 $-1.42] 20 4/7/2020 (648) $100,000 $50.00 $10.70 $50.00     $60.70 - $21,400 21.4% $121,400
    RH Short Call 2022 21-JAN 125.00 CALL [RH @ $121.23 $-1.42] -20 4/8/2020 (648) $-72,000 $36.00 $6.75     $42.75 - $-13,500 -18.8% $-85,500
    RH Short Put 2022 21-JAN 110.00 PUT [RH @ $121.23 $-1.42] -5 4/7/2020 (648) $-21,500 $43.00 $-6.50     $36.50 $0.50 $3,250 15.1% $-18,250

    We are not day-traders though we are not adverse to taking profits in a day if they seem ridiculous but this is simply according to plan and we have no reason to change our mind on RH – we just happened to catch a perfect entry last week (because we understand the fundamental value of things and pay attention to the news).


  13. The problem with steel is that despite all the infrastructure spending in the decade (US, Ukraine, etc.), China demand governs everything. I don't see how any demand anywhere else can make up for a slowdown there. 



  14. China/RN – You may have a point but I don't see China leaving things to languish for too long without taking actions of their own to support the economy.

    EGRNF +5.00%Mar. 30, 2022 12:26 PM ET1 Comment

    • In an effort to alleviate its debt burdens, struggling property developer China Evergrande (OTCPK:EGRNF) (OTCPK:EGRNY) is selling its Crystal City Project for 3.66B yuan ($575M) to two state-owned firms, Reuters reported, citing the company's filing.
    • China Evergrande is selling the land-use and building ownership rights for Crystal City Project in the eastern city of Hangzhou to Zhejiang Zhejian Real Estate Group and Zhejiang Construction Engineering Group, the filing read. The project is still under construction.
    • The proceeds of the transaction will be used to repay construction fees of 920.7M yuan owed to Zhejiang Construction Engineering and the rest for its own general working capital, Reuters noted.
    • Earlier, China Evergrande appointed advisors to probe $2.1B cash seizure.

    AA +1.58%Mar. 30, 2022 12:38 PM ET

    Alcoa (NYSE:AA +1.8%) and Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX +1.6%) recoup a chunk of Tuesday's losses as aluminum and other industrial metals move higher on the London Metal Exchange, as Russia's war in Ukraine rages and the dollar weakened.

    According to Reuters, benchmark aluminum (LMAHDS03:COM+3.3% at $3,549/metric ton in London, and has jumped ~25% YTD after rising 42% in 2021, when a supply deficit emerged; Russia is a major producer of aluminum, copper and nickel, as well as the gas and coal used to power smelters, and prices have surged the invasion began on February 24, triggering sanctions and disrupting supply routes.

    Also, LME copper (HG1:COM+0.6% to $10,374/ton, zinc (LMZSDS03:COM+3.4% to $4,162, nickel (LN1:COM+3.6% to $32,950, lead (LL1:COM+1.5% to $2,416 and tin (LMSNDS03:COM+0.2% to $42,500.

    Oh, sorry but no webinar this week – my voice is not 100% and I don't want to push it.

    LOVE -3.62%Mar. 30, 2022 12:30 PM ET

    Lovesac (LOVE -3.6%) cooled off after a huge post-earnings rally on Tuesday had pushed shares to their highest levels since the middle part of January.

    BTIG said it still views LOVE as a high-growth, modular sofa manufacturer that is disrupting the ~$40B sofa market. Crucially, the firm thinks the guidance issued by the retailer may be on the light side.

    Analyst Camilo Lyon: "While LOVE assumes freight/tariffs margin headwinds will persist through F23, we believe the company's gross margin guide for FQ1/F23 could prove conservative particularly with product cost improvements as partial offsets, structurally lower promotions as brand awareness climbs, and 15% price increases aimed at mitigating inflationary pressures."

    BTIG's price target of $118 on LOVE is more than 100% higher than the current share price and above the 52-week high of $95.51.

    Dig into the Lovesac Company earnings call transcript.

    SCHD -0.19%Mar. 30, 2022 12:15 PM ET3 Comments

    The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) generated serious attention during Q1, pulling in more capital than funds tied to the three major U.S. equity indices, as investors looked for stability amid a general slide in the overall stock market.

    SCHD, the world’s third-largest dividend ETF with $34.48B assets under management, has attracted $3.75B for what’s about to be the close of the first quarter. This figure represented three times what the fund garnered in Q4 of 2021, when it drew $1.15B.

    The large influx of capital SCHD experienced has placed the fund inside the top ten of inflow leaders in 2022, outdoing the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA), and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ).

    So far in 2022, SPY has experienced $24B exit the world’s largest ETF. Additionally, QQQ, the fourth largest fund, has seen $2.39B get retracted. Of the three, DIA was the only fund to attract new investor capital and that totaled $1.61B.

    Looking just at the dividend space, SCHD has attracted the same amount of fund flows as its combined three largest competitors Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF (VYM), and iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) in 2022. VYM attracted $2.2B, DVY $1.1B, and VIG 432M.

    SCHD has a 2.83% quarterly dividend yield and has outperformed most of the other major dividend ETFs in 2022, with the exception of DVY. On the year SCHD is -1.1% and never pushed lower than a 9% year-to-date decline. This performance compares to correction territory that the SPY, QQQ, and DIA have seen during the early months of 2022.

    All ETF flow data is per etfdb.com.

    See the below chart on how SCHD, SPY, DIA, and QQQ fared against each other in 2022:


  15. DIS -0.04%Mar. 30, 2022 12:09 PM ET3 Comments

    Walt Disney (DIS -0.5%) is winning some high marks from analysts after running an investor event for its Parks and Experiences business that indicated multiple tailwinds that could boost the business in the coming year or two.

    There "was no great unveiling" at the event, nor any new outlook, but there was positivity nonetheless, Wells Fargo says.

    “The shock and awe of the attractions, crowds and evergreen Disney IP provides a foundation for the stock that we think is unique," the bank says; it has an Overweight rating and a price target of $196, implying 38% upside.

    BofA notes that despite some near-record results in the first quarter, Disney's international visitor uptake still has lots of room to run, making up a "minimal" percentage of total attendance; hotel room occupancy is well below peak, with some hotels still closed; and cruise ships and parks are still operating below peak levels.

    Disney was "opportunistic" during the pandemic to make transformational changes to the park that have long-term effects on margins. "The robust recovery, thus far, is currently being driven by a bounce back in domestic attendance, yield management, Genie+ and strong merchandise sales," analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich says.

    She's boosting estimates and now expects fiscal 2023 revenue growth in the Parks, Experience and Products division to come in at 10% vs. a previous 3% estimate, and she expects operating income to grow 13% vs. a previous 4%. She has a $191 price target.

    Guggenheim is Neutral on Disney but has a positive view of the parks business, expecting "innovations driving the segment growth vs. pre-pandemic levels."

    Michael Morris at Guggenheim had trimmed his price target to $150 but went into the Parks Investor Experience with an upbeat outlook on the parks, including expectations for implied record attendance in fiscal Q2.

    Could not have been better-timed as we just bought back the short April $60 calls in our Butterfly Portfolio Review, leaving us very bullish on DIS:

    DIS Short Put 2022 14-APR 160.00 PUT [DIS @ $142.05 $-0.33] -20 11/19/2021 (15) $-27,400 $13.70 $4.35 $-49.40     $18.05 $0.16 $-8,700 -31.8% $-36,100
    DIS Long Call 2024 19-JAN 140.00 CALL [DIS @ $142.05 $-0.33] 50 12/21/2021 (660) $165,000 $33.00 $-8.48     $24.53 $-0.28 $-42,375 -25.7% $122,625
    DIS Short Call 2023 20-JAN 180.00 CALL [DIS @ $142.05 $-0.33] -30 2/18/2022 (296) $-48,000 $16.00 $-12.75     $3.25 $0.05 $38,250 79.7% $-9,750

    Even without the $45,000 we made on the short calls, the remaining spread is still cheaper than where we entered it at net $76,775 on the 50-unit spread that will pay $100,000 at $160 and $200,000 at $180.  At the moment, we could sell the 2024 $180 calls for $10 ($50,000) to knock the net (ignoring the $45,000 we already made) to $26,775 on a $200,000 spread, where we still have a very comfortable zone for selling more short-term calls over the next two years.   Hopefully though, we'll be able to sell the $180s for $16, which is the going price of the $160s.  That would bring in $80,000 and give us a free spread – with $45,000 profit already in pocket.


  16. Oh, sorry, that was my mistake as we were supposed to ALSO buy back the DIS Jan $180 calls in the Butterfly Portfolio – so please let's do that as they are up $38,250!


  17. I'm thinking of all the people who promised their kids a trip to DIS and couldn't due to the pandemic stacked up with all the regular people who would go in a normal year – that's a lot of pent-up demand.  


  18. Meanwhile, we're still stuck with short puts on these guys and they suck more than we thought they did!

    W -5.19%Mar. 30, 2022 11:38 AM ET

    Wayfair (W -6.0%) shares have slumped after Loop Capital downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell, while slashing its price target from $95.00 ? $90.00.

    In a research note, analyst Laura Champine expressed her bearish stance on the home furnishing retailer, citing concerns over near-term inflation and changing consumer demand.

    "A slow replacement cycle is a key feature of the furniture industry, and we think Covid was a massive driver of pull-forward furniture demand. Though Wayfair and every other home-related company we follow claim that consumers have experienced a more permanent mindset shift towards home-related spending, we think many consumers are ready to spend on social activities and vacations they've been postponing," Champine said.

    The analyst sees persistent cost pressures on every line of Wayfair's income statement and has therefore lowered her revenue estimate for the stock by $400M this year and $1B in 2023.

    Champine sees non-GAAP EPS loss $1.16 worse than consensus this year and $1.29 worse than consensus in 2023.

    Wayfair failed to impress with its Q4 results, with earnings and revenue both missing Wall Street estimates. Orders delivered in quarter were 12.1M, a decrease of 26.7% Y/Y, while active customers fell 12.5% Y/Y to 27.3M as of Dec. 31, 2021.

    Shares have slipped 61.44% over the past year and are down 37.56% YTD

    Read a recent bearish analysis on the stock here

    RRC +0.03%Mar. 30, 2022 11:17 AM ET14 Comments

    • Henry Hub (NG1:COM) prices rose 4%+ in early trading Wednesday, as moderate weather and accelerating LNG exports pulled inventory levels further below historic averages: 
    • US prices remain well below European gas prices, as TTF sits at ~$35, indicating that additional LNG capacity from Sabine Pass train 6 and Calcasieu Pass will likely flow into Europe:
    • Henry hub prices are trading at their highest, seasonally-adjusted level in over a decade, supporting producers like Chesapeake (CHK), EQT (EQT), Range (RRC) and others.

    QQQ -0.51%Mar. 30, 2022 11:05 AM ET1 Comment

    With an advance of more than 15% over the past two weeks, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) has flashed a bullish signal, pushing back above its 200-day moving average, a key technical barrier.

    QQQ has now popped 15.4% over the past two trading weeks dating back to the Mar. 15 open. The latest advance has also allowed the fund to touch its highest levels since Jan. 20.

    Additionally, QQQ is less than 10% from its all-time trading high of 408.71 a share set back in late Nov. Overall, the fund has seen a major improvement from earlier this month, when the ETF was off its peak by 22%.

    QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and is paired with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND), is the world’s fourth largest exchange traded fund with its $197.45B assets under management.

    From a fund flow stance, QQQ has attracted just under $4B in new money since Mar. 15 — $3.89B to be exact. This reversed an outflow seen earlier in the year. To put those flows into perspective, from Jan. 4 leading up to Mar. 15, the fund watched $4B exit the door.

    The Nasdaq has bounced back from a tech-led slide that marked the first couple months of trading, as investors worried about the impact of higher interest rates. The index now closed positive in eight of its last 11 sessions and crawled itself back above correction territory, which has lent support to QQQ.

    QQQ is now -8.4% in 2022, see the below year-to-date chart of the fund.

    While QQQ has rallied, the 3X leveraged ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ) has surged 52.3% over the same period of time.

    During Wednesday's session, the Nasdaq, QQQ and TQQQ have hit a small roadblock as they are down 0.5%0.6% and 1.8%, respectively, as markets have halted their upward momentum in early trading.

    GOOG -0.36%Mar. 30, 2022 10:38 AM ET13 Comments

    • Waymo, the self-driving car unit of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), has moved forward with plans to bring fully driver-free rides to San Francisco.
    • Those rides are for employees only at first.
    • "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work," Waymo says. "Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees."
    • Those riders join thousands served in Arizona, the company says. And it's also expanding the Arizona operation to cover downtown Phoenix; it's been offering some limited autonomous rides to the public in Phoenix's East Valley since 2020.
    • The company is moving to catch up to Cruise from GM (GM -1%), which said last month it would start offering autonomous driver-free rides to the public in San Francisco.

    This is quietly sneaking up on us.  Kind of like Google Street View/Maps - they announce it and then they just spend a few years executing it and suddenly it's a product everyone uses.

    AAPL -0.35%Mar. 30, 2022 10:33 AM ET7 Comments

    Time magazine on Wednesday released its list of the 100 Most Influential Companies for 2022, with tech giants such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) not surprisingly among the selections.

    But, a handful of what might be called up-and-comers in the tech sector also managed to make the list, which Time said is based on key factors such as "relevance, impact, innovation, leadership ambition and success" that are among businesses "helping chart an essential path forward."

    Time put the 100 most-influential companies into five categories: Titans, Leaders, Innovators, Pioneers and Disruptors. The Titans list included what many would think of as some of the usual suspects leading the tech sector: Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Facebook parent company Meta Platforms (FB), IBM (IBM), and from the streaming TV and entertainment world, Netflix (NFLX) and Disney (DIS).

    Sony (SONY) and music-streaming giant Spotify (SPOT) received nods under Time's Leaders category, while the publication placed quantum computing company IonQ (IONQ) in its Pioneers group, short-form video company TikTok was included in Time's group of Disruptors, and Tesla (TSLA) rival Rivian (RIVN) was given a spot under the category of Innovators.

    Among the tech giants making Time's most-influential list, Apple (AAPL) shares rose slightly, Wednesday, to $179.61 and edge the company closer to a market cap of $3 trillion. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan said that despite reports that Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone production due to the war in Ukraine and inflation, iPhone demand still remains strong.

    No Tesla!  


  19. is there a webinar today?


  20. sorry i just saw cancelled


  21. No, my voice isn't so good and I don't want to make myself sick.


  22. CLX +0.26%Mar. 30, 2022 10:05 AM ET1 Comment

    JPMorgan took a deep dive into the implications for household products stocks of raw materials inflation, supply chain disruption and elevated transportation costs.

    A key conclusion from the firm is that it favors stocks with strong brand equity and solid market share positions, which together allow them to price against the cost pressures. Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Constellation Brands (STZ), Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) make that list. Also highlighted, companies with high gross margin rates like beauty standouts Estee Lauder (EL), Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) and e.l.f. Beauty (ELF). Reopening stories like Coca-Cola (KO) and The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) are also seen riding out the rough macro backdrop as they benefit from operating leverage diluting some of the fixed costs and having a generally better mix.

    Stocks at risk of seeing raw materials exposure whack earnings further in the near term include Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL). Those companies are seen at risk of feeling pressure from higher commodities, packaging and transportation costs that cannot be fully recouped via pricing actions.

    JPMorgan also downgraded Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) due to the double whammy of rising costs and FX headwinds. Analyst Andrea Teixeira and team cut P&G to a Neutral rating from Overweight. "While we remain positive on P&G’s ability to continue to gain share and benefit from reopening in its beauty, shaving, and deodorant categories, we are taking a pause and downgrading PG to Neutral given recent increase in costs, FX headwinds and potential downside risk to consensus," wrote Teixeira.

    SHOP -4.47%Mar. 30, 2022 9:52 AM ET42 Comments

    Update 9:53am: Updates to show some fixes New York Magazine made to the original March 28 article.

    Shopify's (NYSE:SHOP) unusual $100 stock price spike near the close of trading on March 18 is said to be under investigation by the NYSE.

    Shopify's stock soared $100/share to $780 on March 18 before crashing in after-hours trading. The stock exchange is trying to figure out the reason behind the spike, according to a New York Magazine report.

    The spike came as Citigroup (C) had an order from Wall Street clients to buy 600,000 shares of Shopify stock that had to be resolved in the final hour of trading, according to the report. The first trade for half the order was put in before 3 pm, while the second half was put in about 10 minutes before the close.

    Citadel Securities, the trading firmed owned by billionaire Ken Griffin, sold the Shopify (SHOP) shares at the close, according to the NY Magazine report. Citadel is a designated market maker and didn't alert brokers to order imbalances as that's the stock exchange's role.

    Citi, Citadel and the NYSE declined to comment to the publication.

    Also see SA contributor Graham Grieder's piece entitled "Shopify: This Is Still A Growth Story."

    (Editor's note: Updates to clarify the New York Magazine's story description of Citadel and it's role in story after the publication amended its item.)


    Speaking of probes:

    GOOG -0.30%Mar. 30, 2022 9:34 AM ET3 Comments

    A federal probe of Google Maps (GOOG -0.4%, GOOGL -0.2%) that had gone relatively quiet has picked up speed in recent months, Reuters reports.

    The Justice Dept. began looking in late 2020 into whether bundling Maps with other Google software stifled competition illegally, and the probe had grown slower until new inquiries recently.

    The probe has two aspects, Reuters notes. One focuses on apps provided on vehicle screens, where Google bundles together Maps, Assistant and other services in its Google Automotive Services. Notably, regulators are focused on whether voice assistants from smaller rivals are able to integrate into Google Maps.

    The other aspect focuses on developers, and Google's requirement that if an app/website uses one Google technology (like location search) that it cannot use maps or other tech from rivals. Google says that mixing Google Maps information with information on another map can lead to errors. But it notes its policies have exceptions and developers "are also free to use other mapping services in addition to Google Maps Platform – and many do."

    Such tying of products isn't illegal on its face, though antitrust watchdogs have an interest in it benefiting consumers.

    The Maps probe isn't as far along as DOJ's investigation into Google's dominance of online advertising. And both of those follow an existing lawsuit the DOJ filed over search dominance.

    Pearson slips 6% as it rejects third and final Apollo offer

    PSO -6.30%Mar. 30, 2022 9:51 AM ET1 Comment

    • Pearson stock (NYSE:PSO) has fallen 6.3% in U.S. trading as Apollo Global Management (APO -2.2%) has abandoned its takeover pursuit of the educational publisher.
    • The third time wasn't the charm for Apollo, which saw its third bid of 884.2 pence/share – amounting to about £7.2 billion including debt (about $9.5 billion) – rejected by Pearson.
    • That third offer was its best and final, Apollo said, and now by UK law it needs to step away from pursuing Pearson for at least six months.
    • That proposal "significantly undervalued the company and its future prospects," Pearson said.
    • Pearson had moved up earlier this month after rejecting an offer of 854.2 pence/share from Apollo.

    WIX -0.74%Mar. 30, 2022 9:00 AM ET

    Wix (NASDAQ:WIX) said it's partnering with DoorDash (NYSE:DASH) to provide on-demand delivery to restaurant owners using Wix Restaurants.

    Businesses using Wix Restaurants can fully deliver orders made directly on their own websites through DoorDash (DASH), according to a statement. The new partnership will offer a commission free delivery experience for the restaurant, which has been a big issue for smaller and mid-sized restaurants, Adam Garfield, VP of Wix Restaurants, said in an interview with Seeking Alpha.

    "When you think about restaurants biggest pain points today, probably the top two pain points for any restaurant are 1) high commissions on delivery orders and 2) a labor shortage," Garfield said.

    Garfield explained that instead of a restaurant having to pay a potential 30% commission fee on a delivery order through apps like Uber Eats (UBER), Grubhub (OTC:JTKWY) and Postmates, the restaurant can pay a flat fee instead. The restaurant can then decide if they want to subsidize a portion of that fee or pass the entire fee onto the customer.

    "So this is a solution for restaurants today that want to offer delivery themselves, but don't have the manpower and money or desire to hire and manage their own fleet," Garfield said.

    Wix has been building up its presence in the restaurant sector and last year acquired SpeedETab to enhance its restaurants product. The SpeedETab purchase enabled Wix Restaurants to integrate with various industry restaurant POS systems, allowing restaurant owners to manage all online and offline orders in one place.

    The partnership with DoorDash "is shifting how people look at Wix from just a digital presence and just a website builder to a platform that helps restaurants transact," Garfield said.

    Wix also agreed to buy Rise.ai last May to expand its Wix ecommerce platform. Rise.ai is a gift card and customer re-engagement solution for online brands.


  23. AAPL -0.46%Mar. 30, 2022 8:02 AM ET

    A recent media report suggested that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was cutting iPhone and AirPods production over the Ukraine war and inflation, but Bank of America defended the tech giant, noting demand is "strong," citing lower trade-in prices for old iPhones.

    Analyst Wamsi Mohan, who has a buy rating and a $215 price target on Apple, noted that Apple is offering trade-in values that are less than third parties in the U.S. and U.K. and it recently cut trade-in prices in both countries, as well as China.

    "In our opinion, lower Apple trade-in prices vs 3rd parties and the reduction in overall iPhone trade-in prices signifies strong demand," Mohan wrote in a note to clients.

    Apple (AAPL) shares were slightly lower in premarket trading, falling slightly less than 0.5% to $178.30, after rising for 11 consecutive trading sessions.

    In addition, any concerns about China imposing COVID-related shutdowns on Shanghai are overblown, as Mohan noted that "companies have learned to manufacture through COVID and Apple/Foxconn have the ability to relocate production," adding the firm does not "expect a material impact from these shutdowns."

    Apple (AAPL) is also likely to benefit from users trading in their iPhones, with Mohan pointing out a recent survey that showed more than 25% of respondents have an iPhone 8 or earlier.

    The tech giant could also benefit from the trade-in programs by increasing its iPhone installed base, further monetizing its Services and keeping customers locked into the Apple ecosystem, while also selling other products.

    Apple (AAPL) recently became the first streaming service to win the Oscar for Best Picture for CODA at the 94th Academy Awards, an occasion that Wedbush Securities called a "drop the mic moment."

    FIVE -6.08%Mar. 30, 2022 7:44 AM ET5 Comments

    Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) fell in early trading on Wednesday after posting largely in-line numbers with its Q4 earnings report, but guiding comparable sales growth for Q1 and FY22 below expectations.

    In conjunction with its earnings release day, Five Below (FIVE) is also holding an Investor Day event.

    Five Below (FIVE) outlined its growth outlook ahead of the event. The retailer plans to increase its store potential in the U.S. to +3,500 units, which would triple the current store count. Five Below (FIVE) also aims to double sales and EPS through fiscal year 2025. Five Below (FIVE) expects to open approximately 1,000 stores during that time, including 375 to 400 new stores over the next two fiscal years. The long-term outlook also includes a forecast that operating margin will grow to approximately 14%.

    Shares of Five Below (FIVE) fell 3.07% premarket to $166.13 vs. the 52-week trading range of $143.44 to $237.86.

    Five Below (FIVE) is on Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for the week.

    MU -1.74%Mar. 30, 2022 7:38 AM ET17 Comments

    Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) shares rose in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company posted better-than-expected earnings and guidance, prompting approval from Wall Street analysts.

    Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh raised his price target on Micron to $113 from $110, while maintaining a buy rating, noting that the company is "well positioned" this year with opportunities in data center, PC and mobile and a "potentially improving pricing environment."

    Rakesh noted that the second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance were "well above consensus with [quarter-over-quarter] growth in storage and compute and longer-term tailwinds from product mix and content increases," adding that it is a positive read-through for Western Digital (WDC), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX).

    Micron (MU) shares rose slightly more than 4% to $85.54 in premarket trading.

    For the period ending March 3, Micron said it earned $2 a share on $7.79 billion in revenue. Gross margins, a closely watched measure, came in at 47.2%. During the quarter, Micron generated $3.63 billion in operating cash flow, down from $3.94 billion in the prior quarter but above the $3.06 billion it generated in the year-ago quarter.

    For the third quarter, Micron said it expects revenue to be between $8.5 billion and $8.9 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $2.36 and $2.56 per share. GAAP gross margins are forecast to come in between 46% and 48%.

    Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who reiterated his buy rating and $118 price target on Micron (MU) following the quarter, raised 2022 and 2023 sales and earnings estimates after the results, while also noting the potential benefits for other companies.

    Arya noted that Micron's (MU) strong outlook for cloud should benefit Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), as well as the aforementioned Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA Corp (KLAC).

    "We believe [long-term] agreements (now 75% of sales and close to 100% of large customers) dampen price/demand volatility which should help sustain better profitability throughout the cycle," Arya added.

    However, the analyst cautioned that while Micron is benefiting from a wide variety of product cycles and has seen improvements in "some non-memory component shortages," there are still certain areas, such as logic and analog chips that could remain in short supply until 2023, adding to uncertainty.

    Last week, Micron's (MU) Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra testified in front of Congress to ask for more government support for the domestic semiconductor industry, though Bank of America said it would not be a "silver bullet."

    LULU +11.75%Mar. 30, 2022 7:19 AM ET1 Comment

    Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) soared in early trading on Wednesday after the retailer's Q4 earnings report dazzled investors and analysts.

    Bank of America (Buy, price objective $450): "LULU’s accelerating momentum into 1Q and favorable outlook support our view that it gained share during the pandemic and is well positioned for growth; reiterate Buy. The F2022 guidance for sales growth of 20-22% (23-24% 3-year CAGR) was a positive surprise versus the long-term plan of low-teens and is based on core growth plus new products and categories. 1Q is off to a strong start, and the outlook calls for 24-26% sales growth."

    Morgan Stanley (Equal-weight, price target $300): "All in, we are impressed with the acceleration in the business following management trimming initial 4Q21 guidance to the low end of its previous range in early January as a result of higher-than-expected freight costs & Omicron impacts to store capacity & traffic."

    Wells Fargo (Equal Weight, price target $370): "Bulls finally got some much-needed good news, as LULU offered a strong +20-22% FY rev guide, including "accelerated momentum QTD" and a +24-26% guide for 1Q (a rare 1Q-weighted rev guide for our space), with FY EPS above Street. If there's a sticking point to call out, LULU is planning margins similar YoY (and to 2019) which begins to put into question if there's more margin to come. Next month's Analyst Day will be the next key catalyst as management unveils their new 5-Year growth plan (after surpassing 2018's plan fairly handily)."

    BTIG (Buy, price target upped to $491): "Taken together, LULU posted another solid quarter despite persistent macro/Omicron/transit headwinds. Supported by a solid balance sheet and $1.2B in cash, the Board authorized a new $1B share buyback underscoring its confidence in the long-term opportunity for the brand. Given LULU's remarkable consistency of execution and long pathway for both share gains and profit improvements (particularly Asia), we reiterate our BUY rating and raise our PT to $491 as we roll our estimates out to F23."

    Lululemon (LULU) also attracted notable price target boosts from Deutsche Bank to $428 from $410 and Cowen to $507 from $491.

    Shares of Lululemon (LULU) rose 7.24% in premarket action to $368.89 after gaining 3.67% on Monday in the regular session.

    Check out the earnings coverage: Lululemon rallies after topping estimates for holiday quarter, posting strong guidance.


  24. BNTX +2.70%Mar. 30, 2022 6:57 AM ET27 Comments

    BioNTech's (NASDAQ:BNTX) stock rose pre-market after Q4 revenues grew +1501.77% Y/Y to ~€5.53B on the back of sales of COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty, developed with partner Pfizer (PFE).

    The company said ~2.6B doses of Comirnaty/BNT162b2 were delivered to more than 165 countries and regions worldwide in 2021, including more than 1B doses to low- and middle-income countries.

    The German biotech said signed orders for 2022 delivery increased to 2.4B COVID-19 vaccine doses.

    The company has already reiterated its 2022 COVID-19 vaccine revenue outlook to €17B from €13B.

    Q4 net profit rose +762.96% Y/Y to ~€3.17B.

    Full year 2021 revenues rose to~ €18.98B, compared to €482.3M in 2020. Meanwhile, net profit for 2021 grew to €10.29B, compared to €15.2M in 2020.

    BioNTech CFO Jens Holstein said that the financial success in 2021 has allowed the company to redeploy meaningful investments into its R&D engine for the years to come.

    The company now expects to spend between €1.4B and €1.5B in R&D during 2022, which represents an increase of ~50% compared to 2021.

    In addition, BioNTech Co-Founder and CEO Ugur Sahin said, "At the same time, we are investing in our second growth pillar, infectious diseases, and intend to advance our influenza and shingles vaccine candidates together with our partner Pfizer."

    2022 SG&A expenses expected between €450M and €550M; Capital expenditures expected in the range of €450M to €550M.

    Dividend: BioNTech it plans to propose a special cash dividend of €2 per ordinary share (including those held in the form of ADSs), which corresponds to ~€486M, pending approval at the Annual General Meeting to be held in June 2022, which the Company expects to serve as the record date for the dividend.

    Buyback: The company added that it expects to buyback ADSs of up to $1.5B over the next two years.

    BNTX +4.34% premarket to $179.87

    PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review – Part 2 (Members Only)

    • BIG – We only need to make adjustments if our target changes and $55 in two years still makes sense.  While it's tempting to add more it's only a small discount to our initial position and we still have broad-market concerns so we're saving firepower.  
    • BNTX – Saving it for things like this.  $165 is down to a $40Bn valuation for BNTX and they made $3.2Bn LAST QUARTER.  They should make about $9Bn in 2022 and people think Covid is going away but it's not, it will be like the flu and we'll need shots every year.  Also, BNTX has a lot of things in the pipeline but investors are not patient – so they sell it off.  The short March calls will go worthless and we're too low to sell more calls and we're not worried about our net $163.60 entry from the puts on 500 shares so let's just roll the 15 2024 $150 calls at $61 ($91,500) down to 20 of the 2024 $120 calls at $75 ($150,000) so we're spending net $58,500 to be $60,000 deeper in the money and we'll get that back when we cover (the short $250 calls are $30 for $60,000).  

    It's at those max pain points where we have to stick to our plan and roll our positions.  

    SPY -0.67%Mar. 30, 2022 5:41 AM ET16 Comments

    U.S. stock markets have mostly shrugged off the latest news out of Ukraine over the past couple of weeks, suggesting investors are putting headlines related to the conflict on the back burner (for now). The three major indices have even fully recovered all of the losses they experienced since the beginning of the invasion, with the S&P 500 exiting correction territory on Tuesday. Global investors have also taken some comfort over the prospects of a potential peace deal as the two sides met for negotiations in Istanbul. Should investors be worried about the yield curve inversion?

    On the ground: Russia has pledged to reduce military activity in Kyiv and Chernihiv as it refocuses its campaign on the eastern Donbas region, though President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that "Ukrainians are not naive people." Remember that Russia announced it would return its troops back to base – following military exercises in neighboring Belarus – just before launching an all-out invasion of the country on Feb. 24. In terms of a potential settlement, Ukraine said it would agree not to join a military alliance or host foreign troops, but would rather demand security guarantees similar to NATO's collective defense clause known as "Article 5." In turn, Moscow would not oppose Ukraine joining the EU, though the fate of the Donbas would be determined by Putin and Zelenskyy, who would meet for the initialing of a treaty once negotiations were complete.

    "This has been a nice ride," noted Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg. "The market's now up almost 10% in the last 10 days, so we've had a pretty incredible rally in a very short time… but I wouldn't get too comfortable for the rest of this year, because I think we're going to continue to see a lot of volatility." S&P 500 futures are trending down this morning, inching 0.4% lower ahead of the final release of U.S. Q4 GDP data and the ADP national employment report.

    Energy on watch: Germany has declared an "early warning" on natural gas supplies, calling on consumers and companies to limit consumption given risks of a full supply disruption from Russia. The emergency measure is the first of three stages, but does not yet mean state intervention is needed to ration gas supplies. Dutch TTF natural gas futures, a European benchmark, still soared on the news, climbing as much as 14% to €123.5 a megawatt-hour. G7 rejects Putin's demand that Russian natural gas be paid for in rubles.

    Mar. 30, 2022 4:54 AM ET61 Comments

    The yield on the 2-year Treasury briefly exceeded the 10-year on Tuesday for the first time since 2019, in a warning sign that coming Fed rate hikes may trigger a recession. The inversion happened at a level of about 2.39%, but only lasted several minutes before things returned to a 5 basis point spread. A short-lived inversion also occurred in the summer of 2019 amid the trade war with China, and while that was followed by the COVID downturn of 2020, the last persistent inversion of the Treasury curve occurred in 2006-2007.

    What it means: Yield curves typically slope upward, so when short-term yields return more than longer-dated ones, it suggests there is reason to worry about the long-term economic outlook. It can also signal that the high levels of short-term yields are unlikely to be sustained as growth slows, which can have an impact on a range of asset prices. "Historically, a recession has not happened without an inversion," said Ben Emons, global macro strategist with Medley Global Advisors. "So likely, it will be a predictor of a future recession. Timing, however, is unknown. It could take up to two years."

    A series of inversions besides the closely-watched 2s/10s proxy have recently occurred as traders price in more and more rate hikes. 20-year yields topped 30-year yields last October, while the gap between 5-year and 30-year yields turned upside down on Monday. As the Fed embarks on a cycle of quantitative tightening, there are fears that it will reduce consumer spending and business activity as the central bank battles the highest inflation rates in a generation.

    False alarm? "There's reason to believe that this time around, yield curve inversion may not be as good of an indicator as it has been in the past, particularly given the enormous amount of quantitative easing undertaken by global central banks," said Erin Browne, a fund manager at PIMCO. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said last week that he's paying more attention to the first 18 months of the yield curve rather than anything that goes on afterwards. The inversion could also be more of a blip than a lasting trend, and in fact, the curve steepened overnight with the 2-year and 10-year yields at 2.30% and 2.37%, respectively.

    Mar. 30, 2022 3:30 AM ET100 Comments

    Here are the latest headlines in the Russia-Ukraine crisis:

    EU weighing tighter crypto sanctions

    The European Union is reportedly contemplating additional sanctions against Russia's financial sector. According to the Wall Street Journal, officials are weighing whether to take steps to further restrict the use of cryptocurrencies by Russian banks, which could use the sector to bypass sanctions on more traditional financial transactions.

    Poland looks to end Russian oil imports

    Poland is looking to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, pledging to eliminate oil imports from the country by the end of the year. The announcement follows news earlier in the week that Poland would stop Russian coal imports.

    'Every kilowatt hour counts'

    Germany has declared an "early warning" on natural gas supplies, calling on consumers and companies to limit consumption given the risks of a full supply disruption from Russia. The emergency measure is the first of three stages, but does not yet mean state intervention is needed to ration gas supplies.

    Prospects for peace?

    Deadly strikes are continuing across Ukraine despite a pledge from Russia to reduce military activity in Kyiv and Chernihiv, as Moscow refocuses its campaign on the eastern Donbas region. However, the two sides did make some headway during peace negotiations in Istanbul on Tuesday. Ukrainian would agree not to join NATO or host foreign troop bases, but would rather have security guarantees similar to the collective defense clause known as "Article 5" (all proposals would require a referendum). In turn, Moscow would not oppose Ukraine joining the EU, though the fate of the Donbas would be determined by Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who would meet for the initialing of a treaty once negotiations are completed.

    Some skepticism

    "Ukrainians are not naive people," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced late Tuesday. "Ukrainians have already learned during these 34 days of invasion, and over the past eight years of the war in Donbas, that the only thing they can trust is a concrete result." The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also said Russia's promise to curtail military operations in some areas was "probably a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead." Remember, Russia announced it would return its troops back to base – following military exercises in neighboring Belarus – before launching an all-out invasion on Feb. 24.

    More sanctions

    The United States and its allies are planning another round of penalties that aim to undermine "the Kremlin's ability to operate its war machine." "In addition to sanctioning companies in sectors that enable the Kremlin's malign activities, we also plan to take actions to disrupt their critical supply chains," Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo declared. "Our goal is to use an integrated approach that includes export controls which will bite over time and sanctions that will bite immediately."

    DVN +0.18%Mar. 29, 2022 7:52 PM ET455 Comments

    CEOs from some U.S. oil companies with the most production on federal lands and waters have refused a request to testify at a congressional hearing next week to probe surging energy prices, although several energy firms plan to attend a separate hearing next week.

    The top executives at Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) have declined to participate in a hearing by the House Natural Resources Committee, Chairman Raul Grijalva said.

    The three companies combined hold ~4K leases covering nearly 1.5M acres of public land, and more than 2,800 unused drilling permits, Grijalva said, adding that the hearing is intended to ask why the companies have not done more to stop rising in oil and gas prices, despite record profits.

    Devon said it plans to attend a separate hearing before a House Energy and Commerce Committee subcommittee that will cover some of the same issues and include more companies.

    Along with Devon CEO David Hager, executives from Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Shell (SHEL) and BP are scheduled to attend that hearing, set for April 6, which is titled "Gouged at the Gas Station: Big Oil and America’s Pain at the Pump."

    For investors, the testimony could offer clues to whether the industry will maintain its capital spending discipline and emphasis on shareholder returns.

    Wow, nice power play by our Kleptocrats – putting those Oligarchs to shame and telling our Government to F off…


  25. Turned into a red day after all.

    Not too much damage but they need to make progress, not regress.  Russell has turned red at the weak bounce and I'd have to call both the Dow and /ES black on the strong bounce lines now – that's a BAD technical day! 

    • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
    • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
    • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
    • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)
       

    Oil back at $107.


  26. wow you picked a great day to short oil mr phil.


  27. Needless to say, we take $5 and run!