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Tale of Two Tuesdays – Zelensky, the Times and the Journal

Front Page Headline of the NY Times:

Zelensky to Address U.N. as Toll of Atrocities Mounts

Front Page Headline of the Wall Street Journal:

Zelensky to Address U.N. With Claims of Russian Atrocities

Like Fox "News", the Wall Street Journal is owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.  Murdoch bought the Journal in 2007 from the Dow Jones Company, who had founded it in 1882, just in time to oversee the melt-down of the markets a year later.  The Journal used to be Capitalist but, since Murdoch took over, it has become right-wing and essentially a mouthpiece for the radical right – conspiracy theories and all.

You may think there's only a subtle difference between "Toll of Atrocities": and "Claims of Russian Atrocities" (as if there are various brands) but "Toll" and "Claims" tell very different stories indeed.  The NY Times article leads with:

Britain, France and the United States were expected to use the Security Council meeting to present evidence of atrocities that some officials, including President Biden, have described as “war crimes” in northern areas that Russian troops abandoned amid fierce resistance. In one of those places, Bucha, a suburb of the capital, Mr. Zelensky said that more than 300 bodies have been found since Russian forces pulled back last week, some with their hands bound or shot in the back of the head.

The Journal goes with:

Ukrainian president says newly discovered atrocities could be worse than those in Bucha; former Russian president describes evidence as ‘fake’

Mr. Zelensky is expected to raise accusations of war crimes again in his first address to the U.N. Security Council since the war began. “I would like to emphasize that we are interested in the most complete, transparent investigation, the results of which will be known and explained to the entire international community,” he said in his late-night address, released in the early hours of Tuesday.

Don't worry, it's "Fake" news – probably just acting friends of Zelensky's playing dead in the streets, right?  The Wall Street Journal doesn't have to spout the exact same idiocy as QAnon – they just have to not deny the propaganda their readers are being exposed to with FACTS.  If the Wall Street Journal says these war crimes are "alleged" and "claimed" rather than actually reporting on what is really happening – they leave the door open for the rest of the Russian apologists that propagate their Television and Internet outlets.  

Putin's “useful idiots” abound in MAGA world | The Seattle TimesDid you know Murdoch also bought National Geographic?  This explains the apparent lack of concern over there for Climate Change.  Go ahead – Google it – or at least try to…  Why is the National Geographic essentially silent on climate change?  That is the power of Oligarchs like Murdoch and Musk – who can throw their money at anything they disagree with.  The problem with Liberal Billionaires is they don't do that – they don't believe in perverting the press to manipulate public opinion – so they lose.

In any war, even World War II, the President has to get the people behind him before he can make a grave decision like taking military action to defend our allies or, God forbid, for principles.  It doesn't take much to sow the seeds of doubt and prevent a democracy from taking action and Dictators know this and they ally themselves with enough of the right people so that they can always create that doubt and weaken our country's resolves at critical, key moments.  

Can you imagine Ronald Reagan putting up with these enablers of Putin?  Of course not but now his own Republican party has been taken over by people who are willing to sell out their own country for power – the power Putin sells to them the way he was trained – by exchanging information, by influencing behind the scenes, using money as leverage.  Donald Trump JUST asked Putin for more dirt on Hunter Biden – LAST WEEK!   LIVE on National Television, Trump said:

“One thing, while I’m on your show, as long as Putin now is not exactly a fan of our country, let him explain, where did — because Chris Wallace wouldn’t let me ask the question — why did the mayor of Moscow’s wife give the Bidens, both of them, $3.5 million dollars? That’s a lot of money,” Trump told John Solomon and Amanda Head on the “Just the News” show on Real America’s Voice network.

Trump added that, “I would think Putin would know the answer to that. I think he should release it.”

By the way, of course there is no evidence whatsoever that the "mayor of Moscow's wife" gave the Bidens $3.5M but asking (over and over again) WHY it happened starts to make it seem like of course it DID happen – now we just want to know why?  Trump does these psychological games perfectly when he's interviewed, consistently, every time – it's the rambling BS that's a cover he can fall back on if people press him on things.  A trick he learned from Reagan, who was 100% lucid in his 20-minute farewell address.

Trump Puppet GIFs | TenorWhat does it mean when Trump, for the 3rd time live on National TV, asks Vladimir Putin for his help in revealing the crimes of President Biden and his son?  Who is our ally?  Who is our enemy?  Who is committing unforgiveable crimes and who is fighting for Democracy?  Sowing the seeds of doubt is all it takes and this is not about some BS dirt Trump wants but about setting an overall tone with America that maybe it's Joe Biden you shouldn't be trusting – not Vladimir Putin – who knows the truth.  

Trump was impeached for withholding defensive weapons from Ukrain unless Zelensky provided him with dirt on the Bidens.  That's how long this attack on our Democratic ally has been planned.  Putin has been in Crimea since March of 2014 and neither NATO or the UN had the stomach to act then and, so far, they don't now either.  Biden was VP back then and went to Ukraine 6 times for Obama but, in the end, the G8 became the G7 when Russia was kicked out but, other than that – there were no real consequences and Trump "normalized" relations with Russia when he took office in 2017 – allowing Russia to begin to gear up for their next invasion.

Today, Zelensky will speak to the UN but, when the headlines read "Claims of Russian Atrocities" – how are we going to unite 200 nations when we can't even unite ourselves?

Vassily Nebenzia, the Russian representative to the United Nations, said in a Monday night press conference that Russia intends to present “factual evidence” to the Security Council that the killings in Bucha were unfairly blamed on the Russian army.

“From the very beginning it has been clear that this is nothing else but yet another staged provocation aimed at discrediting and dehumanizing the Russian military and leveling political pressure on Russia,” he said.

He added that the U.N. is refusing to investigate what has happened fairly.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev connected the portrayal of events at Bucha to the need to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, as he put it, and rid its people of their anti-Russian myths in addition to what he described as the fictitious idea that there is an independent Ukrainian identity.

In a Telegram post, Mr. Medvedev said Bucha is an example of the Ukrainian army’s willingness to kill its own people in order to blame the murders on Russia.

Mr. Medvedev said Ukraine has turned into the Third Reich, adding, “It will meet the same fate.”

That was uncritically reported in the Wall Stret Journal this morning.  Actually, the WSJ article does continue with this comment:

His post seems to reflect a change in what Moscow means when it talks about de-Nazification, one of the original goals the Kremlin laid out at the beginning of the war.

At first, Russia said it sought to free the Ukrainian people from a U.S.-backed, neo-Nazi government. Now, the rhetoric centers on the Ukrainian people themselves as poisoned by what it calls Nazi ideology.

I mean, COME ON, in the Wall Street Journal this is how they report it?  

REALLY???

 


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  1. Good Morning.



  2. Good morning!

    Not sure whet the markets expected out of PMI/ISM – things are all over the place but look like selling pressure is building up:

       
    Apr. 05, 2022 9:47 AM ET

    • March U.S. PMI Composite Final57.7 vs. 58.5 consensus vs. 55.9 prior
    • Healthcare and Technology lead US private sector growth in March; healthcare saw fastest rise in activity since November 2021 while technology rebounded from soft patch seen at 2022 start.
    • Service PMI: 58.0 vs. 58.9 consensus and 56.5 prior
    • The expansion in output quickened to the fastest for four months, amid stronger demand conditions and a steeper rise in new orders.
    • Output prices increased markedly as a faster rise in cost burdens was largely passed through to customers.
    • Total new sales were also supported by stronger foreign client demand during March.
    • New export orders rose at a robust rate that was the sharpest for ten months
    • "Demand for services is in fact growing so fast that companies are increasingly struggling to keep pace with customer orders, leading to the largest rise in backlogs of work recorded since the survey began in 2009," chief business economist Chris Williamson commented.

    Apr. 05, 2022 10:01 AM ET

    • March ISM Services PMI Index58.3 vs. 58.5 consensus and 56.5 prior.
    • The Services PMI shows growth in 17 industries, with the composite number rising for the 22nd straight month.
    • "There was an uptick in business activity in March, but respondents have indicated that they continue to be impacted by capacity constraints, logistical challenges and inflation," said Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee. "Labor shortages have eased slightly, as COVID-19 cases have declined and public-health restrictions have been relaxed."
    • Geopolitical concerns, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, have pushed up material costs, creating uncertainty for manty businesses, Nieves added.
    • Business Activity Index at 55.5 vs. 55.1 in February.
    • Prices Index 83.8 vs. 83.1.
    • New Orders Index at 60.1 vs. 56.1.
    • Employment Index at 54.0 vs. 48.5.
    • Supplier Deliveries at 63.4 vs. 66.2.

    Bonds going lower and lower:

       

     




  3. /NG hit $6! 

        

    Speaking of BAX (Rn):

    BAX +2.16%Apr. 05, 2022 9:44 AM ET

    • The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted 510(k) clearance to Baxter's (NYSE:BAX) ST Set used in continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT).
    • The company said the ST Set is a pre-connected, disposable, extracorporeal (outside the body) circuit that provides blood purification through a semipermeable membrane to be used with the PrisMax or Prismaflex control units (monitors).
    • Baxter added that the system has been available to customers in the U.S. since August 2020, when it received emergency use authorization (EUA) from the FDA to provide CRRT to treat patients in an acute care environment during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • The company noted that the ST Set is currently in use in Europe, Asia Pacific and North and South America.

    ARLP +3.36%Apr. 05, 2022 9:29 AM ET12 Comments

    • Earlier Tuesday, it was reported that the EU is planning a mandatory phaseout of coal imports from Russia; the measure is set to be debated this week, though timing of the ban remains unclear, according to Bloomberg sources.
    • The report comes on the heels of France's Macron calling for a ban on Russian oil and coal imports.
    • Germany, Europe's largest coal consumer by far, is reportedly ready to consider such a ban and is in discussions with the EU about timing.
    • Russia / Europe thermal coal trade accounts for ~7% of the global traded market, suggesting such a ban would require significant infrastructure changes to avoid stranding Russian volumes.
    • A decrease in Russian coal imports into Europe would likely result in increased imports from the Americas; supporting the seaborne thermal coal market for producers like Peabody (BTU), Arch (ARCH), CONSOL (CEIX) and Alliance (ARLP), just as US domestic prices hit records.

    QCOM -3.40%Apr. 05, 2022 9:17 AM ET11 Comments

    Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares dipped in premarket trading on Tuesday as investment firm J.P. Morgan cut its earnings estimates and price target on the semiconductor company, citing a weaker smartphone outlook.

    Analyst Samik Chatterjee lowered his price target to $205 but kept his overweight rating on Qualcomm, noting that despite the firm's best efforts to diversify, including its recent Arriver acquisition, a weaker global outlook for the smartphone market are likely to hurt the company's earnings.

    "Qualcomm’s strong share gains with Android smartphone [original equipment manufacturers] in 2022, greater exposure to high-end smartphones, as well as the opportunity to divert supply to non-handset end markets will provide offsets to the broader slowdown in the smartphone market," Chatterjee wrote in a note to clients.

    "That said, the softer outlook for the smartphone market will drive softer [Qualcomm Technology Licensing] revenues as well as a slight moderation in our [Qualcomm CDMA Technologies] revenue and margin forecasts, despite the offsets on a company-specific basis."

    Qualcomm (QCOM) shares slipped slightly more than 0.5% to $152.71 in premarket trading on Tuesday.

    In addition, Chatterjee noted that Qualcomm (QCOM) has continued to diversify its business away from just smartphones and should perform better than its peers, amid slower consumer spending.

    Nonetheless, Chatterjee lowered his 2022 earnings estimates to $11.70 per share, compared to a consensus of $11.84 per share.

    However, a more diversified Qualcomm is likely to see "tailwinds" in the future, with Chatterjee raising his earnings estimates in 2023 and 2024 to $12.80 and $14.20 per share, compared to a consensus outlook of $12.59 and $13.33, respectively.

    On Friday, Qualcomm (QCOM) shares fell sharply after J.P. Morgan removed the semiconductor company from its Analyst Focus List and concerns popped up over the slowing Chinese smartphone market.

    GNRC +2.34%Apr. 05, 2022 9:11 AM ET3 Comments

    Generac (NYSE:GNRC+4.3% pre-market after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Americas Buy List on Tuesday, upgrading shares to Buy from Neutral with a $410 price target, noting the company's products that are in the early phases of the adoption curve, a rising distribution "store count" footprint, and "the broadest product portfolio within its top products."

    "We see continued momentum driven by GNRC's complete consumer product offering across clean energy and stand-by generators, combined with lead generation algorithm refinement," Goldman's Jerry Revich writes.

    The analyst said the risk of a cyclical downturn in the home stand-by business had kept the firm on the sidelines, but with the stock down 37% off its November 2021 highs, negative estimate revisions likely are now priced in.

    Generac's "new clean energy business will result in valuation multiplier expansions leading to significant upside for its shares," Alpine Capital writes in a bullish analysis previously posted on Seeking Alpha.

    Submitted on 2022/02/14 at 11:28 am

    • Generac (GNRC) is a generator company we always like when they are down and $347 is 33% off the highs at $22Bn and these guys made $351M in 2020 and are making $604M this year and project $756M for 2022.  Every time there's a natural disaster – their phones ring and, the way this World is warming – business will be booming for years to come.

    Submitted on 2022/03/25 at 2:24 pm

    Oops, we forgot to buy GNRC!  


  4. How Russia rescued the ruble


  5. WHR/Phil Would you be thinking about rolling the long $180s to $170s? 

    20 '24 WHR $180c  ($50) .. rolled from '23 $200s

    - 20 '23 $230c ($28.2)

    - 5 '24 $180p ($29.7)  .. rolled from '23 $200puts for even.

    Thx!


  6. SPY -0.58%Apr. 05, 2022 5:34 AM ET20 Comments

    U.S. stock markets have notched an impressive rally since mid-March, with the three major indices sailing out of correction territory in under two weeks. The Nasdaq pushed even higher on Monday, climbing 2% on sentiment surrounding Elon Musk's big stake in Twitter. Bulls argue that companies will continue to deliver bumper profits despite the Fed's rate-hiking cycle, while so-called meme stocks are recording big increases in options activity. The sharp unanticipated rebound is having analysts rewrite their latest market forecasts, though some are holding strong by comparing it to a bear market trap.

    Bank of America: "Over the last two weeks, the S&P has produced one of its sharpest rallies in history, larger than the biggest 10-day rallies in seven of the S&P's 11 bear markets since 1927," said analysts led by Gonzalo Asis and Riddhi Prasad. "It has done so despite clearly weaker fundamentals (more hikes, higher inflation, and curve inversion) and the Fed leaning against equity market strength to hike faster. The worsening macro backdrop and market-unfriendly Fed make sustained U.S. equity gains unlikely. In practice, this means lower risk assets."

    Morgan Stanley: "The bear market rally is over," declared U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson. The economy is headed for a sharp slowdown as a "payback in demand from last year's fiscal stimulus, demand destruction from high prices, food and energy price spikes from the war that serve as a tax and inventory builds that have now caught up to demand." Note that Wilson had similar bearish views in 2021, which he later admitted were "wrong" as U.S. benchmark indexes powered to continuous record highs.

    J.P. Morgan: "Geopolitics remains a wild card, but we do not see equities fundamental risk-reward to be as bearish as it is currently fashionable to portray," analysts led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a research note. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also flagged the "strength of the U.S. economy" in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday, citing "plentiful jobs with wage increases and more than $2T in excess savings." The consumer is also in "excellent financial shape (on average)," he added, while leverage is "among the lowest on record."

    Apr. 05, 2022 3:17 AM ET82 Comments

    Here are the latest headlines in the Russia-Ukraine crisis:

    Treasury takes action

    Ratcheting up further pressure on Moscow, the U.S. Treasury has stopped the Russian government from making debt payments via the dollar reserves it holds in American bank accounts. As a result, the Kremlin will be forced to use up dollar reserves held in its own country, spend new revenues or go into default. Russia is already not able to access international borrowing markets due to Western sanctions, while a default would further prohibit it from accessing those markets until creditors are fully repaid and lawsuits are settled.

    Zelenskyy addresses U.N.

    The United Nations Security Council will meet Tuesday to discuss Russia's alleged war crimes in Bucha. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the Council as he builds support for an investigation into the atrocities. "And this is only one town. One of many Ukrainian communities which the Russian forces managed to capture," he declared in a video. "Now, there is information that in Borodyanka and some other liberated Ukrainian towns, the number of casualties of the occupiers may be even much higher."

    C -1.69%Apr. 04, 2022 11:23 PM ET4 Comments

    • Citi (NYSE:C) is said to put a temporary hold on underwriting initial public offerings for SPACs until companies can determine legal liabilities with new SEC proposed rules announced last week.
    • Citi, which was ranked first last year as far as SPAC underwriting, is awaiting feedback from legal advisors in regards to underwriter legal liability, according to a Bloomberg report. The firm has no intention of exiting the SPAC underwriting business.
    • The Citi pause comes after the SEC unveiled new SPAC regulations last week aimed in part at discouraging the dissemination of inaccurate growth forecasts about potential mergers. The new rules emphasize that investors have the right to sue blank-check companies if they issue exaggerated projections or bullish statements about the companies they plan to take public, according to a Bloomberg report.
    • Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said in December that he believes that investors may not be getting the same protections between SPACs and traditional IPOs. Some of these investor protections include disclosure, marketing practices and gatekeepers.

    BDIY:IND -2.12%Apr. 04, 2022 6:36 PM ET37 Comments

    The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index fell for the eighth straight session on Monday, with lower dayrates across all vessel segments.

    The Baltic Dry Index (BDIY:IND) closed -2.1% to 2,307 points, with the capesize index -3.7% to 1,796, the panamax index -1.9% to 3,015, and the supramax index -1.3% to 2,717.

    Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150K-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell $564 to $14,896, while average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of 60K-70K metric tons, slid $525 to $27,135.

    Relevant tickers: SBLKDACNMMGSLGOGLATCOSBCMREEGLEDSXESEAMATXOTCPK:AMKBY

    Also, the Baltic Exchange said British persons are "prohibited from broking, chartering and selling vessels to persons connected with Russia," complicating the transport of the U.K.'s commodities by sea.

    London is a major global hub for shipbroking and traditionally is extensively involved in the transportation of a wide range of Russian commodities.

    MRNA -4.18%Apr. 04, 2022 5:17 PM ET103 Comments

    CEO Stephane Bancel of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) predicted Monday that many adults will eventually receive annual COVID boosters, while the vaccine maker hopes to create yearly all-in-one shots for multiple diseases the way Apple unveils new iPhones each year.

    "Our first priority is to get an annual iPhone-like booster for all respiratory diseases," Bancel said in a speech to the Boston College Chief Executives Club. "You're going to get your [new] iPhone every year in September, and you're going to get your 'Moderna iPhone booster' every year [as well]. We're going to keep adding more and more 'apps' for viruses, and we'll refresh all of those and update all of those every year."

    Bancel said that while more than 100 viruses impact humans, vaccines only exist right now for 25. But he believes Moderna (MRNA) can employ the same technology it used to quickly create a COVID vaccine in 2020 to develop shots for other viral diseases as well.

    The CEO said MRNA spent 10 years doing vaccine research before COVID even emerged, but "once you get all of the pieces of the technology to work, then the next one is [easy]."

    As such, Bancel expects the company to have annual COVID boosters available beginning this fall to protect people from new virus variants like Omicron. MRNA's rivals like Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) appear likely to develop future COVID booster shots as well.

    While many consumers have gotten two-shot initial vaccinations and a third booster shot, the CEO said whether consumers get additional shots will depend on people's ages and individual risk tolerances to things like "long COVID." That's a form of COVID where symptoms linger for months or years.

    Bancel said he doesn't think his 19- and 20-year-old daughters will need boosters because "young people have very strong immune systems." But the 49-year-old CEO aid he'll probably get additional booster shots himself "because I don't want to get long COVID."

    Seeking Alpha contributors have mixed views on where Moderna (MRNA) goes from here. Columnist Edward Ingham recently laid out a "Sell" case for the stock, while Juxaposed Ideas argued that MRNA is a "Buy."


  7. Phil, email to you is bouncing back saying "over quota".   


  8. WHR/Wing – Nice pullback.  At this point, I want to sell puts in the LTP.  Sure, if you are long-term and intend to stick with them and would be HAPPY to DD if they drop back to $100 (like in 2020), then of course a roll to the $160s is a good place to start.  People will need washers and dryers.  In fact Maddie was just saying she wants a new dryer as her old one is not energy efficient, nor does it do a good job drying (college apartment) and, sadly, ours is pretty new, so she can't have that one.  So there's one customer soon to make a purchase!  

    The 2024 $180s are $26.50 and the $160s are $36 so $10 to roll down $20 and those short $230s are likely dead so I'd sell the 2024 $200s for $20 to pay for the roll (and $10 more to roll later) and then you have 20 of the 2024 $160/200 bull call spreads covered with 20 short Jan $230s at $4.70 and you can stop out of 5 at $5.50 and 5 more at $7 and 5 more at $10 and that's ($11,250) that would leave you with just 5 short $230s and a year to roll and you'd be $80,000 in the money on the longs by the time that happened.  

    For the LTP, let's sell 10 of the WHR 2024 150 puts for $22.50 ($22,500) as it's a no-brainer that we'd love to be in for net $127.50 – a $46 (26.5%) discount to the current price .  


  9. Email/Tangled – I have my guys looking into that.


  10. PGR +1.14%Apr. 04, 2022 5:14 PM ET82 Comments

    The U.S. federal budget could lose a whopping $2T per year by the end of the 21st century, as natural disasters have been made worse by climate change, according to a blog post by the President's Office of management and Budget.

    Moreover, climate change could cost the federal budget an annual loss of 7.1% by the end of the century, the blog post read. At the same time, the federal government could spend an additional $25B-128B per year to confront climate change with initiatives such as coastal disaster relief, flood insurance, crop insurance and wildland fire suppression. Furthermore, the President's budget for 2023 deploys $44.9B to tame the "climate crisis," an increase of almost 60% over 2021, according to the assessment. This figure includes over $15B to expand clean energy innovation and innovate technologies that accelerate the transition to "a clean energy economy."

    "Climate change threatens communities and sectors across the country, including through floods, drought, extreme heat, wildfires, and hurricanes that affect the U.S. economy and the lives of everyday Americans," they wrote. “Future damages could dwarf current damages if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.”

    Property and casualty insurers that may be impacted include: American International Group (AIG), Trisura (OTCPK:TRRSF), Travelers Companies (TRV), Chubb (CB), Allstate (ALL), Hartford Financial (HIG), Aon (AON), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Cincinnati Financial (CINF) and Progressive (PGR).

    In March, the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled climate change disclosure rules.

    USO -0.73%Apr. 04, 2022 5:01 PM ET11 Comments

    Update: In another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York Monday ($7.61/g), a ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past ~30yrs. Par Pacific (PARR) has the most exposure to distillate margins, specifically jet, of any US refiner:

    In a note Sunday, Goldman's commodity team wrote that a new pricing regime for oil (USO) requires "demand destruction" for oil products. However, as high prices lead to falling demand for products like gasoline, Goldman expects distillate fuel demand to remain strong and margins to remain high. The note points to several key factors which will lead to higher distillate fuel margins:

    • Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating.
    • Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel.
    • High natural gas prices will lead to "gas to oil" switching in Europe and Asia.
    • The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners.
    • Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe.

    Futures curves suggest that distillate fuel margins will revert to historic averages in coming months; however, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end:

    From an equity perspective, Par Pacific (PARR) is the most distillate-heavy refiner in the US and stands to benefit from increased summer travel. Particularly given the Company's Hawaii-heavy refining foot print. Names like Valero (VLO), Marathon (MPC) and Phillips (PSX) also stand to benefit from higher margins. In general, record demand paired with heavily reduced OECD refining capacity, should provide a tailwind for refinery profits in 2022.

    The first $11Tn wasn't enough, so: 

    GILD +0.01%Apr. 04, 2022 5:00 PM ET27 Comments

    Update: Congressional leaders announced on Monday an agreement for a scaled-back legislation to secure $10 billion in additional funding for U.S. COVID-19 response, New York Daily News reported.

    According to a fact sheet distributed by Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), at least half of the measure is earmarked for R&D efforts targeting treatments, and at least $750 million would be allocated for research on new COVID-19 variants and to increase vaccine production.

    A Democrat of the House Progressive Caucus doubted if the new piece of legislation would garner the minimum 10 GOP votes to advance through the Senate. However, others said that sufficient Republican votes would be there for its passage.

    Previously: Congressional negotiators have agreed on a $10 billion additional funding for U.S. COVID-19 response, and the deal is expected to be announced on Monday, The Washington Post reported citing two people with knowledge of the matter.

    The package provides funds for the purchase of more therapeutics, tests, vaccines, and other supplies.

    However, the lawmakers have failed to reach an agreement for a $15 billion package that included $5 billion for the global response which President Biden previously said was critical to keep Americans safe from the threat of new variants.

    Developers of COVID-19 antibody therapies: Gilead (GILD), Eli Lilly (LLY), Vir Biotechnology (VIR)/ GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Regeneron (REGN).

    The makers of COVID-19 pills: Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK).

    COVID-19 vaccine makers: Pfizer (PFE)/ BioNTech (BNTX), Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

    Last month, the Biden administration warned that the government was at risk of running out of COVID-19 antibody therapies as early as May unless Congress clears additional funds.


  11. CCL +4.56%Apr. 04, 2022 4:15 PM ET12 Comments

    • Carnival Cruise Line (NYSE:CCL) announced that the one-week period of March 28 to April 3 was its busiest booking week in the company's history.
    • The cruise line brand saw a double-digit increase from the previous record 7-day booking total with 22 of its 23 ships back in guest operations across all its year-round U.S. homeports. The final ship, Carnival Splendor, will return to service from Seattle on May 2.
    • Carnival (CCL) said it has led the industry in terms of restart and customer demand.
    • Shares of Carnival Corporation (CCL) rose 2.79% in after-hours trading to $20.29.
    • See all the momentum metrics on CCL.

    BTC-USD -0.18%Apr. 04, 2022 4:15 PM ET7 Comments

    "Crypto adoption reached a true tipping point last year, becoming an established economic driver and a valued investment across the globe," said Noah Perlman, chief operating officer at digital asset exchange Gemini.

    Specifically, almost half of all current crypto owners in the U.S. (44%), Latin America (46%) and Asia Pacific (45%) first bought crypto in 2021, according to Gemini's 2022 Global State of Crypto report, adding that surging inflation was the primary driver of adoption. Also, the crypto gender gap may be narrowing in the coming year, and global education remains the greatest barrier to investing in crypto, the report said.

    For emerging markets, Brazil and Indonesia led the way in crypto adoption with more than 41% of respondents in each country reporting crypto ownership, compared with 17% across developed economies including the U.S. (20%), Europe (17%) and Australia (18%). Recall in the beginning of April when Indonesia planned to charge a value-added tax on digital asset transactions and an income tax on capital gains at a rate of 0.1%.

    Globally, 41% of respondents said they are crypto-curious, which takes into account consumers who do not currently own crypto, but are either interested in learning more or say they are likely to acquire crypto in the next year.

    "We expect to see the influx of crypto investors continue into this year with concerns about inflation in the U.S. and globally driving interest," Perlman added. "Education also remains a global barrier to adoption, and providing investors additional resources is key to bringing new users into the crypto ecosystem, especially women who make up a majority of the crypto-curious audience."

    Note that Gemini's report uncovers trends in adoption, barriers to entry, and attitudes toward crypto among nearly 30K respondents in 20 countries.

    In the crypto ecosystem, bitcoin (BTC-USD -1.0%) is changing hands slightly lower at $45.8K and ethereum (ETH-USD -0.3%) is down somewhat to $3.48K.

    Previously, (Jan. 25) Crypto ownership was driven by high-income millennials, while baby boomers appeared disinterested.

    VWAGY -2.43%Apr. 04, 2022 3:34 PM ET3 Comments

    • Volkswagen of America (OTCPK:VWAGY-0.5% reports Q1 2022 sales declined 28.5% Y/Y to 64,993 units in a press release issued on Monday.
    • SUVs accounted for 76% of total sales to 49,396 units (-15% Y/Y).
    • Top performers in the company's portfolio include Tiguan, 18,233 units (-33% Y/Y); Atlas Family, 14,734 units (-52% Y/Y); and Taos, 13,674 units.
    • Also Read: European Union commercial vehicle sales declined 15.7% in February

    Sure, and this quarter will magically have great GDP and earnings despite this?  


  12. New dryer, are you guys ever heard of washing lines? Never used my dryer since I bought an apartment 2 years again, and I just bought some new lines for my RV, 2.50 at the China shop.


  13. P.S. Found these lines very energie efficient


  14. I bought a clothesline for the 'family', the old fashioned one on a pole…

     

    She refuses to take it out of the box.  :)


  15. Speaking of laundry, why is Wells hating on HBI so much? Everyone needs underwear……


  16. My wife & I love the clothes line drying method, Your laundry smell great too. We would have icicles  for part of the year

    if we hung wet stuff outside. 


  17. i am looking for a washer dryer comb.  found out good ole GE is owned by a Chinese company, but assembled in USA.  Whirlpool & Maytag – 3 month wait.  LG – one month wait but they limit who can work on them later.  Electrolux, Samsung ? 

    wash by hand & line dry- It could happen if my current machine croaks 


  18. GOLD    a trader sells 1600 Jan24 $25 puts for $4.40


  19. Lines/Yodi – We had them when I was a kid.  They do work just fine and, best of all, your clothes don't shrink.

    HBI/Snow – It is very strange why people even care enough to be down on them.  They generally drop 10% of very steady, 2.5% growing sales to the bottom line and, with $7Bn in sales and $600M in profits, you can buy the whole company for $5.2Bn at $14.43.  It will be about the same in 2025 and not much more in 2030 yet the stock goes from $7.50 to $22.50 and back to $14.50 in 18 months – as if they have an FDA approval pending…

    Combos/Stock – I find most of them do neither well.  Certainly not the single machine that switches tasks – they certainly haven't gotten that right.  I will say I think the front-loader was a big improvement when we got that.   There's a reason WHRs are sold out – good stuff.  LG too, didn't know about the maintenance issue.  Used to be we'd only buy appliances from Sears as we knew they'd fix them right away – those days are gone.  

    GOLD/Stock – Yes, I think $25 may be long in the rearview mirror by then.

    GOLD Long Call 2024 19-JAN 15.00 CALL [GOLD @ $24.71 $-0.16] 50 10/15/2021 (654) $27,500 $5.50 $4.80 $6.33     $10.30 - $24,000 87.3% $51,500
    GOLD Short Put 2024 19-JAN 25.00 PUT [GOLD @ $24.71 $-0.16] -20 10/29/2021 (654) $-17,000 $8.50 $-3.98     $4.53 $-0.02 $7,950 46.8% $-9,050
    GOLD Short Call 2024 19-JAN 25.00 CALL [GOLD @ $24.71 $-0.16] -30 3/21/2022 (654) $-13,500 $4.50 $-0.05     $4.45 $0.05 $150 1.1% $-13,350

    All good in the LTP – Gained about $3,500 since our 3/18 review.  Now it's net $29,100 on the 60% covered $50,000 spread so only $20,900 (71%) left to go.  I'm sure we'll roll to a better spread when the 2025s come out.  We just sold the short calls for $13,500 and if we sell 20 more for $9,000, that's $22,500 to put towards a roll and that's already enough to buy 25 more longs or it's $30,000 for 50 more spreads and I'm sure 2025 will be cheaper than that.

    Not encouraging on the bounce chart:

    • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
    • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
    • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
    • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)

    S&P and Russell added reds since Friday morning.  That brings us back to watching the 20% bounce chart:

    • Dow 36,000 to 28,800 would be a 7,200-point drop with 1,440 bounces to 30,240 (weak) and 31,680 (strong).   
    • S&P 4,800 is 20% above 4,000 and that makes it an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces so 4,160 (weak) and 4,320 (strong).
    • Nasdaq is using 13,500 as the base and we bottomed yesterday at 13,103.  14,100 is the weak bounce and 14,700 is strong.  
    • Russell 1,600, would be about an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces to 1,780 (weak) and 1,960 (strong).

    All good here still but RUT 2,057 and Nas 14,862 not too far off and you don't want to see ANY red on this chart – especially since 1,960 is the 20% line on the RUT (which fell fast and early).  

    Still, point is we're not in the danger zone but falling out of the "safe" zone at a steady pace. 

    Tut tut it looks like rain


  20. TWTR is holding up the market:


  21. TWTR is holding up the market because Elon?

    (and those of you who don't need underwear, I do not want to hear about it).
     


  22. Sometimes, Presidential action is what it takes to make 'em fit….. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3GT9UN7nDo


  23. Elon Musk





  24. Going commando/Snow – Brave choice! 

    Indexes just drifting down.  Maybe because of this:

    The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged above 5.02% on Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, the first time the rate has been over 5% since 2013 except for one day in 2018, CNBC said.

    The hike in the closely watched interest rate is making it even more expensive for consumers to buy homes. U.S. home prices rose 20% in February from a year ago, CoreLogic said in a report Tuesday.

    The 5.02% 30Y FRM rate is more than 1 percentage point higher than the 3.38% average a year ago. That also means consumers will be less likely to refinance their existing mortgages.

    Mortgage servicer stocks New Residential Investment (NYSE:NRZ -1.0%), Ocwen Financial (NYSE:OCN -5.5%), Mr. Cooper (NASDAQ:COOP -2.5%), and PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI -2.5%) are falling in midafternoon trading on Tuesday. Most mortgage REIT shares are also in the red — iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM -0.9%). Homebuilders are drifting down: D.R. Horton (DHI -1.7%), KB Home (KBH -2.1%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.2%), and Toll Brothers (TOL -1.2%).

    Last week, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30Y FRM was 4.67%, up 25 basis points from the previous week.

    That was fast!

    TOL -1.34%Apr. 05, 2022 2:15 PM ET
    • KB Home (NYSE:KBH) is initiated at Outperform with PT, $42 as Credit Suisse believes that the company will generate strong results and strength in KBH's core West Coast, Texas, and Southwest markets will enable the company to expand its margin.
    • Analyst adds KBH's focus on first-time buyers and first move-up buyers means that the company will likely see more demographically-driven demand with less volatility from discretionary move-up buyers.

    • In its latest earnings release, KBH expects an average selling price of $490K-$500K in FY22 vs. its previous guidance of $480K-$490K; Housing revenue guidance remains at $7.20B-$7.60B; and housing gross profit margin guidance nudged slightly higher to 25.5%-26.3% vs. prior range of 25.4%-26.2%.
    • Return on Equity is seen greater than 27% compared to 19.9% in 2021.
    • With strong fundamentals likely already priced in, Lennar (NYSE:LEN) is initiated at Neutral rating with PT $88; Credit Suisse sees positives in the company's effort to focus on homebuilding and spin off its multi- and single-family rental investments along with its ongoing shift to a land-light strategy through the use of more land options.
    • The stock is trading close to its 52-week low levels
    • Installed Building Products (NYSE:IBP) is initiated with a Neutral rating as Credit Suisse believes that the stock will be constrained by the slowing growth in residential construction, which represents 83% of IBP's revenue.
    • Quick look at company's sales growth Y/Y which indicates a drop in multi-family and residential sales growth.

    • PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) was initiated at Outperform rating citing discounted valuation, strong potential returns; PHM's footprint across the key housing markets in the U.S. and its ability to serve a wide variety of price points provides stability to its operations and relatively consistent absorption.
    • Quick look at company's broad and balanced geographic footprint:

    • Credit Suisse initiated Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC) and TopBuild (NYSE:BLD) with a Neutral and Outperform rating respectively; TopBuild's recent increased exposure to commercial and industrial will support further growth and cash flow in the coming years.

    • Taylor Morrison Home is well positioned to generate higher returns over the coming years via improving margins, better capital allocation, and declining leverage; it continues to increase its use of land options (representing 38% of land owned and controlled at the end of 2021, up from 20% at the end of 2019).
    • Latest quarter saw home closings gross margin improving by 370 basis points to 20.3%; it expects to deliver between 14K to 15K homes at a home closings' gross margin of at least 23.5% in FY and for Q1 it sees ~22% which represents 300 basis points of Y/Y improvement and ~700 points over past two years.
    • D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) initiated with neutral based on reducing capital intensity via land strategy while Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) initiated at Outperform as it focuses on returns.
    • Quick look at DHI homebuilding land and lot position:

    We have PHM in the LTP – cheaper than our entry so far.

    PHM Long Call 2023 20-JAN 40.00 CALL [PHM @ $42.61 $-0.56] 20 4/15/2021 (290) $35,900 $17.95 $-10.55 $17.95     $7.40 $-0.50 $-21,100 -58.8% $14,800
    PHM Short Call 2023 20-JAN 55.00 CALL [PHM @ $42.61 $-0.56] -20 4/15/2021 (290) $-19,140 $9.57 $-7.47     $2.10 $0.10 $14,940 78.1% $-4,200
    PHM Short Put 2023 20-JAN 40.00 PUT [PHM @ $42.61 $-0.56] -10 4/15/2021 (290) $-4,500 $4.50 $0.15     $4.65 - $-150 -3.3% $-4,650


  25. This was a fun one:

    TXT -1.23%Apr. 05, 2022 2:09 PM ET1 Comment

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it has charged Melville ten Cate, a U.S. citizen residing abroad, with fraud stemming from his allegedly phony offer to purchase Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) in November 2020.

    The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal district court in Manhattan, alleged that on Nov. 9, 2020, ten Cate and Xcalibur Aerospace, a now-defunct private company ten Cate allegedly controlled, placed an advertisement in The New York Times announcing a proposed purchase of all Textron stock for $60.50 a share, which at the time represented a 56% premium to Textron's closing price.

    The advertisement led to a spike in Textron stock, including a subsequent trading halt, The SEC charged ten Cate with allegedly violating the antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws. The announcement appeared to be "false and misleading" because ten Cate and Xcalibur didn't appear to have the financial resources to complete a deal that would have been valued at more than $14 billion.

    "We allege that the defendant, ten Cate, pretended to run a financially viable business while leaving a trail of bad debts that included never paying for the very advertisement that announced the fictitious offer," Carolyn Welshhans, Associate Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said in a statement.

    The SEC is seeking permanent and conduct-based injunctions, a penalty, and an officer and director bar, according to the statement. In a parallel action, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York today announced criminal charges against ten Cate.

    Ten Cate didn't immediately respond to a WhatsApp message request for comment from Seeking Alpha.

    Recall on Nov. 9, 2020, Textron described the purported offer from Xcaliber Aerospace "fictitious" and a "violation of U.S. securities law."

    AVGO -2.39%Apr. 05, 2022 1:23 PM ET13 Comments

    • Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) were among the worst-performing tech stocks on Tuesday as investors fretted over rising interest rates.
    • Yields on the 5-year U.S. Treasury rose more than 5% to 2.7% on Tuesday, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury jumped nearly 6% to 2.554%. Yields and bond prices move in inverse directions.
    • Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell slightly more than 3.5% to $263.64, while AMD (AMD) declined slightly more than 2.5% to $107.60.
    • Broadcom (AVGO) fell slightly more than 2% to $620.08, though less than 1 million shares had changed hands shortly after 1 p.m. EST.
    • On Friday, Broadcom (AVGO) announced that it raised $1.95 billion in debt to refinance existing debt, due in 2025 and 2026.

    Apr. 05, 2022 1:19 PM ET

    • Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are seeking to confirm the four remaining Federal Reserve nominees this week, but will need Republican cooperation to get there, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing comments made by Brown.
    • Without Republicans' consent, the Senate would have to debate the matter for 30 hours before voting on Jerome Powell's nomination for his second term as Fed chair. That means there wouldn't be enough time to finish all the votes this week, before the the Senators leave for a two-week recess.
    • The three other nominees awaiting confirmation to the Federal Reserve Board are Lael Brainard as vice chair and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson as governors.
    • The process has dragged on for months. Powell and Brainard were both nominated in November.
    • On March 15, Sarah Bloom Raskin withdrew her candidacy for Fed vice chair for supervision after Joe Manchin (D-WV) said he wouldn't support her nomination.
    • DWAC -15.88%Apr. 05, 2022 1:10 PM ET129 Comments

      Update 1:10pm: Updates shares, adds new details from Washington Post report on Truth Social.

      Trump SPAC Digital World Acquisition (NASDAQ:DWAC), which is taking Trump's social media company public, plunged 17%, dropping for an eighth straight day, after Tesla's Elon Musk was added to the Twitter (TWTR) board. The decline followed a 10% plunge on Monday after a report that two top executives had left the firm.

      One day after disclosing a 9.2% passive stake in Twitter, Elon Musk was added to Twitter's board, according to an 8-K filing.

      Investors are likely concerned that Trump's new social media platform Truth Social, which has been promoted as an alternative to Twitter, may see more competition from a Twitter where Musk is now on the board. Reuters also reported Monday that Truth Social's head of technology and product development, have both resigned from their senior posts.

      Trump's new social media platform Truth Social officially launched in late February, which sent the SPAC's shares up 10% on the platform's first full day. Since hitting a high of over $97/share in early March the shares have plunged 47% through Tuesday.

      Truth Social was the No. 1 most downloaded app in the App Store less than 48 hours after its launch in late February/early March. Trump, who has been banned from Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOGL), is marketing Truth Social as an alternative outlet to those social-media giants.

      Downloads of Truth Social have dropped to 8,000 per day from an initial 170,000, according to research firm Apptopia, Bloomberg reported last week. The number of daily-active users on Apple devices was roughly 513,000, according to Apptopia estimates shared with Bloomberg.

      Trump himself has privately "fumed" about the rollout of Truth Social and has "mused" about joining a competitor such as Gettr, according to a Washington Post report, which cited people familiar.

      Trump is said to be reluctant to post to Truth Social because “it is not ready for prime time,” an unidentified close adviser told the Washington Post.

      Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) saw a massive rally in wake of news that it will take Trump's new media company public via a SPAC merger. The stock gained more than 350% when the news was announced Oct. 21.

      DWAC also missed a deadline on Thursday to file its annual report with the SEC and said it's expected to file the document within the 15-day grace period.

    MRNA -6.18%Apr. 05, 2022 1:05 PM ET5 Comments

    COVAX, a global initiative to ensure global access to COVID-19 vaccines, and the regional body, African Union, have declined to exercise options to buy additional doses of Moderna (MRNA -6.1%) COVID-19 vaccine, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing a company spokesperson.

    The group did not exercise the options for 166 million doses for 3Q 2022 and another 166 million doses for 4Q 2022, which expired on Apr. 01, according to the company.

    COVAX is backed by the World Health Organization (WHO), and Gavi, which handles its vaccine procurement and delivery, has signed agreements to access 650 million doses of Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) vaccine in 2021 and 2022.

    As of Apr. 01, COVAX has delivered about 1.4 billion vaccine doses to 144 countries. The refusal to opt for more doses comes at a time certain low-income countries are struggling to keep up with the supplies amid vaccine hesitancy and challenges to distribution.

    "We are in conversations with manufacturers … to align with magnitude and timing of country needs," a spokesperson from Gavi said.

    Last month, Moderna (MRNA) announced it had signed nearly $21 billion worth of Advance Purchase Agreements for the vaccine, identified as Spikevax in the U.S.

    That was unexpected.


  26. RCRT -8.02%Apr. 05, 2022 1:00 PM ET

    • Gainers: System1 SST +38%, Guardforce AI GFAI +13%, Singularity Future Technology (SGLY+9%, FreightCar America (RAIL+9%, Nordic American Tankers (NAT+7%.

    Top Trades for Tue, 08 Feb 2022 11:49 – RAIL

    Thinly traded options but it looks like you can sell 2024 $5 puts for $2.50 to net $2.50 so you make 100% even in an IRA for promising to buy them for a 37.5% discount to the current price.   Seems very reasonable.  They don't make any money but don't lose much either and only $265M in sales and only $60M valuation means ANY profits going forward will make a huge difference.   I say let's sell 40 of the 2024 $5 puts for $2.50 in the LTP and that's a nice $10,000 and worst case is we own 4,000 shares for net $10,000 – nothing wrong with either outcome there! 

    RAIL Short Put 2024 19-JAN 5.00 PUT [RAIL @ $6.75 $0.49] -40 2/8/2022 (654) $-9,600 $2.40 $-0.63 $-2.40     $1.78 - $2,500 26.0% $-7,100

  27. Apr. 05, 2022 12:47 PM ET1 Comment

    A 50-basis-point rate hike will be an option when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in early May as it seeks to cool the hottest inflation in 40 years, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Tuesday in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

    The size of the rate hike will need to be considered along plans to reduce the size of the Fed's almost $9T balance sheet.

    "We have to be very deliberate and intentional as we remove this accommodation," George said. "I am very focused on thinking about how the balance sheet moves in conjunction with policy-rate increases."

    She has recently called for steady, deliberate moves rather than aggressive ones. Still, the Fed may need to increase rates to above neutral — the point at which the policy rate neither fuels nor hinders the economy — to get inflation to the central bank's 2% target, she said in the the interview.

    The CME FedWatch Tool puts a 78.8% probability of policymakers implementing a 50-bp rate hike at the May 3-4 meeting, up from a 27% probability a month ago.

    Earlier on Tuesday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the combination of shrinking the balance sheet and raising rates should bring the Fed policy rate to a "more neutral position later this year."

    CX -3.61%Apr. 05, 2022 12:27 PM ET

    Cemex (CX -2.8%) slides after Goldman Sachs downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy with a $6 price target on Tuesday, saying energy cost inflation likely will not be fully offset by cement price hikes.

    "Given the swift increase in energy costs recently, we believe short-term earnings will remain pressured which should drive downward earnings revisions in the following quarters and possibly drive lower guidance" once Cemex announces Q1 results on April 28, Goldman's analyst Bruno Amorim writes.

    The analyst sees a potential downward revision to Cemex's guidance for mid-single digit EBITDA growth is "likely given that fuel prices have risen significantly, forecasting operating EBITDA falling 6% Y/Y in FY 2022 vs. Bloomberg consensus of a 5% gain.

    Cemex's Q4 net profit nearly tripled to $195M but well below analyst consensus estimates.

    Apr. 05, 2022 12:27 PM ET168 Comments

    Here are the latest headlines in the Russia-Ukraine crisis:

    Zelenskyy asks UN to bring Russian military to justice

    Ukraine's president tells UN Security Council the Russian military must be brought to justice immediately for war crimes.

    EU proposes Russian coal ban

    The European Union’s executive branch has proposed a ban on coal imports from Russia in what would be the first sanctions targeting the country's lucrative energy industry over its war in Ukraine.

    Treasury takes action

    Ratcheting up further pressure on Moscow, the U.S. Treasury has stopped the Russian government from making debt payments via the dollar reserves it holds in American bank accounts. As a result, the Kremlin will be forced to use up dollar reserves held in its own country, spend new revenues or go into default. Russia is already not able to access international borrowing markets due to Western sanctions, while a default would further prohibit it from accessing those markets until creditors are fully repaid and lawsuits are settled.

    Zelenskyy addresses U.N.

    The United Nations Security Council will meet Tuesday to discuss Russia's alleged war crimes in Bucha. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the Council as he builds support for an investigation into the atrocities. "And this is only one town. One of many Ukrainian communities which the Russian forces managed to capture," he declared in a video. "Now, there is information that in Borodyanka and some other liberated Ukrainian towns, the number of casualties of the occupiers may be even much higher."

    -- The Associated Press contrinbuted to this report

    COIN -7.28%Apr. 05, 2022 12:18 PM ET2 Comments

    Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) shares are sliding nearly 7% in midday trading Tuesday, as bitcoin (BTC-USD) edges down to $45.9K per token, though slightly higher overall.

    COIN's selling pressure comes as Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev lowered his price target on COIN to $190 per share from $220, implying less than 1% downside from Monday's close, according to a note written to clients. As COIN is set to launch its non-fungible token marketplace this year, "we question the strategic rationale of chasing NFTs… especially as the NFT hype seems to wane," he said, adding that the company in 2022 could face $500M in adjusted EBITDA losses if it "performs at the low end of the user guidance range."

    A slew of Coinbase's rivals are also trading in the red, including Robinhood Markets (HOOD -5.7%), Voyager Digital (OTCQX:VYGVF -3.4%), Net Savings Link (OTCPK:NSAV -3.1%) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI -4.1%).

    While COIN stock has been positively correlated with BTC for much of the past year, BTC started to outpace COIN in mid-March, though both are down more than 20% Y/Y, according to the chart below. Still, COIN is off nearly 30% YTD, while BTC is down just 4.2%.

      COIN Short Put 2024 19-JAN 200.00 PUT [COIN @ $177.70 $-13.95] -5 10/14/2021 (654) $-22,500 $45.00 $20.80 $-45.00     $65.80 - $-10,400 -46.2% $-32,900

  28. BPOP is back down to $80 for no good reason.  They are a Puerto Rican bank but people forget that makes them a US Bank with full US protection though they are very popular throughout the Caribbean.   They lost $1.4Bn in 2020 but made $772M last year and expect to make $800M in '22 and $900M in '23 yet you can buy the whole thing for $5Bn at $81.   Puerto Rico's Unemployment rate just hit 6.6% in January, the lowest since 2013 and bankruptcies are down considerably:

    Puerto Rico Bankruptcies

    That should give them an improving portfolio and rising rates are good for Regional Banks making ordinary loans like BPOP.  Assets are also up considerably since 2020 – about 40% higher:

    Popular, Inc. Earning Asset Mix Trend

    So it's a nice, solid bank stock that's undervalued by quite a bit but I don't expect it to be over $100.  This is one we can simply play not to go lower and sell 10 BPOP Oct (as long as they go) $80 puts for $8.50 ($8,500) in the LTP.

    The rest of the market is going lower:

       

  29. Nasdaq down 2.5% on the day is not good.  RUT right there with them.

    1.25% for /ES and no one cares what the Dow does.  If they all just lay at the 5% Rule levels like that – it's almost certain they will follow-through tomorrow.


  30. Email seems to be fixed.


  31. Traders Wake Up to Le Pen Risk as French Vote Polls Tighten


  32. EV Motors Explained


  33. Lithium names plunge as Manchin hits brakes on Biden electric vehicle push

    05:41 PM | (ALB) | By: SA Editor Carl Surran, SA News Editor

     

     

     

    Senator Joe Manchin told the LNG Allies' Transatlantic Energy Security Forum IV event on Tuesday that he "will not sign up" for an aggressive electric vehicle push, which apparently sent lithium industry stocks (NYSEARCA:LIT) plunging across the board.

    Among potentially relevant tickers: NASDAQ:PLL -10.8%, NYSE:LAC -10.7%, SLI -7.6%, MP -6.5%, LTHM -6.5%, ALB -3.9%, SQM -3.6%.

    Manchin raised two objections to President Biden's aggressive plan for electric vehicles, according to the Washington Examiner: Proposals have not sufficiently addressed who will get the revenue from the electricity used to charge vehicles with taxpayer-funded charging stations, and U.S. critical mineral supply chains are underdeveloped.

    "I will not sign up [to transform] our energy and transportation system around EVs that have to be dependent on foreign supply chains," the Senator said, according to the Examiner.

    At the same event, Manchin reportedly expressed frustration over slow gas pipeline approvals and asked the Biden administration to be more "open-minded" in its energy policy response to the war in Ukraine.

     



  34. Biden orders research push on long COVID, a still mysterious condition