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Which Way Wednesday – Stuck in the Middle With You

"Well I don't know why I came here tonight.
I've got the feeling that something ain't right.
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs.
Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Her I am stuck in the middle with you." – Stealers Wheel

Well, shorting certainly didn't work out yesterday as the S&P blasted back over 4,400 and is now testing the 200 dma at 4,496 and we'll see if that goes but WHY are we suddenly so bullish – that is baffling.  

Even this morning, Netflix (NFLX) is dropping over 25% but the Nasdaq seems unphased by the $50Bn loss in market cap.  If the indexes are determined to simply ignore earnings and resume their daily uptrend – we should start seeing progress on the Retracement Bounce Chart – which tracks how far we've come off the highs – at the moment though, we're still pretty red:

  • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
  • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
  • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)

   

As usual, the Dow pretty much does its own thing with just 30 stocks in the index (and they are mostly Blue Chip, safety stocks that people panic into in rough times) but the broader Russell 2000 is barely off the lows – so we need to see some kind of catching up in htat index.  35,000 will be a tough line for /YM to cross this morning – we'll see how that goes and then 4,500 on the S&P (/ES) would conform a bit of bullishness ahead of the weak bounce line being tested.  

I would say both those lines make good shorting spots but the way the S&P burned us yesterday – I think watching and wating is our best move at the moment…

While we wait, however, we might be able to take advantage of the move up and press our hedges (since they are cheaper this week).  We barely touched our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) in last week's review so let's see if there's anything we can take advantage of today:

  • DIA – Last week we widened the spread and sold $6,000 worth of short puts.  While our long puts are down 38%, we can take advantage on that side and roll them to 50 of the Jan $400 ($51.50)/350 ($22.50) bull call spreads at $29 and we can roll 25 (1/2) of our Sept $310 puts at $6.33 to 25 May $350 puts at $6.25 to shorten the time decay on those and we'll buy back the short May $330 puts so as not to be over-covered.  

  • SQQQ – This is a good time to address the imbalance on our Jan $60 calls as they are up about 50% so let's buy 50 of them back and that puts us in a position to sell more short-term calls on the next bounce.  

  • TZA – The only change I want to make is buying back 100 short 2023 $40 calls for $6.83 as it frees us up to sell 100 shorter-term calls on the next bounce.  The July $34 calls are, for example, $4 and only using 86 days and selling them can't hurt us but it sets us up to make twice as much money selling calls for the rest of the year.  

And that's how it should be when you have a well-balanced portfolio – just some minor adjustments to stay on top of these market changes.

 


This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 at 9:18 am and is filed under Appears on main page, Uncategorized. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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  1. April 20th, 2022 at 9:39 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good Morning.


  2. April 20th, 2022 at 10:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good morning!

    The Nasdaq had a late reaction to NFLX but it finally caught up:

       

    200 points of futures gains wiped out at the open – these indexes are just stupid now – BE VERY CAREFUL!

    NFLX down 35% now – I wish we were still shorting it…


  3. April 20th, 2022 at 10:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  4. April 20th, 2022 at 10:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  5. April 20th, 2022 at 10:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  6. April 20th, 2022 at 10:28 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    It's the guidance that is killing NFLX – 2M loss projected next Q kind of makes it silly to trade them at 50x earnings.  This is what I keep hammering on about these high-multiple stocks – one misstep and people think it's the Titanic.

    Even so, we sold 5 NFLX 2024 $350 puts for $56.75 on 3/23 and those suckers are now hitting the LTP for a $42,313 loss.  Of course, that's $141.38 and would be net $208.62 – so a bit over-priced still but when will this stop if NFLX is no longer a growth company?  $155Bn at $235 is still 30x projected 2022 earnings of $5Bn.  20x brings them down to $155 – that would be very, very ugly.  

    The 2024 $250 puts are $66 so we can roll to 10 of those but then we'd have sold 10 of those for about net net $20 each and that's still net $230 so, on the whole, we'll have to ride this out until we see 2025 puts to roll to (probably July). Overall, this is just backlash of that huge swell in subscribers they had during the pandemic and that was found money but all it did was push all the people who were THINKING of subscribing to subscribe at the same time and those people were no longer available as new subscribers in forward quarters.  

    As long as they don't cancel, however – who really cares?  The -2M number next Q is partly Russia and partly churn on the new subs but they are still up net 30M in 3 years – ahead of their actual 2019 projected growth – it's just a matter of perspective.


  7. April 20th, 2022 at 10:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    We shorted NFLX at $600 and they went to $700 before finally coming back and, at $400 in Jan, we were just staying away but we got greedy in March thinking $350 would hold.  I should have listened to my Nov, 2019 self's advice. 

    Submitted on 2019/11/01 at 9:26 am

    NFLX/StJ – I'm not sure they have a path to profits with al this competition.  They have a lot of old contracts for shows that will be much more expensive to renew now that there are more bidders – these models don't account for that or the rising costs of creating new shows (also supply/demand driven).  Half the people I talked to in California are pitching projects to NFLX and fires and power outages can disrupt their schedules and increase costs too.  

    "If you want to make money off Netflix, sell the company a screenplay. Writers and consumers will win biggest in an increasingly competitive streaming market."

    In just the last year alone, Sarandos estimated that it costs 30% more to produce a show. A 30% cost increase per show in one year. They also stated that House of Cards, a show that has been pegged as a $100 million show when it began seven years ago, would be a bargain at $100 million in today's competitive content production market. The show was a hit, according to Netflix, and $100 million today would be just 1% of Netflix's production budget.

    The cost inflation is spilling into movies as well. Netflix's new prestige movie, The Irishman, alone has amassed a budget of more than $140 million. No studio prior to streaming could have justified a budget of that size for something simply designed to groom Oscar voters and win awards. In the old theatrical-only release world for movies, a movie had to double its budget at the box office for the studio to break even because theaters kept approximately half of the take. The prospects of a prestige movie for adults raking in more than $280 million at the box office would have been slim at best.

     

    Next month, competing products Apple+ and Disney+ will launch. As those two platforms evolve, Netflix will face increased competition for writers of new shows and movies. Netflix will also have to pay to keep any talent that produces hits on its own platform. The disadvantage facing Netflix is its financial situation.

    The company recently issued $2 billion in additional debt, bringing its debt load to more than $14 billion. The company also issued $2 billion in debt in April. Netflix is currently burning cash at torrid rate and may not be cash flow positive until 2023.

    Netflix is trading at a steep premium on a P/E basis to comparable media plays. Domestic subscriber count appears to be saturated. International will continue to grow, but margins are lower for international subs. As buzz picks up around Disney+ and Apple+ next month and into next year, domestic subscriber count could take a hit again. And it remains to be seen how much pricing power Netflix will have with consumers as streaming options continue to expand. It's hard to see a catalyst on the horizon that is going to send shares up in any meaningful way.

    At $126Bn now ($287.50) when are they going to be at $6Bn to grow into that valuation?  

    They only SEEM like a bargain compared to the completely insane levels we shorted them at over the summer and I wish they would go back to $360 so we could short them again but, other than that, it's a "stay away" with a ridiculous valuation but plenty of idiots willing to pay it.


  8. April 20th, 2022 at 10:46 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    The netflix miss is affecting all the steaming stocks  PARA, WBD, DIS


  9. April 20th, 2022 at 10:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    AAPL – am I right in remembering that we rolled our long 2023 $120 calls in the butterfly portfolio to the 2024 $130s a couple of weeks ago? And we will widen the spread on the short side when we lost the remaining premium on the short 2023 $150 calls? 


  10. April 20th, 2022 at 10:55 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    NFLX – management seems to be focusing more on revenue now while the street is still looking at subs. The former makes sense given the size of the base now, but it's probably a different investor base you're looking at. 


  11. April 20th, 2022 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  12. April 20th, 2022 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  13. April 20th, 2022 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  14. April 20th, 2022 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    The True Cost of a Hamburger
    By: David Gillette


  15. April 20th, 2022 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  16. April 20th, 2022 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  38. April 20th, 2022 at 11:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  39. April 20th, 2022 at 11:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    IBM   woot, woot

    even WBA 


  40. April 20th, 2022 at 11:52 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Streaming/Bert – Could be a nice opportunity to buy once the dust settles.  

    AAPL/Rn – You are right, I forgot to make those adjustments and will have to fix the Butterfly Portfolio but they were:

    Submitted on 2022/03/24 at 11:01 am

    AAPL/Batman – Yes, good point.  We've got a $480,000 spread that's net $378,400 (not counting the $30,000 short puts) so $101,600 left to gain if AAPL holds $150 but that means we only have 26.8% left to gain so not even worth keeping for 9 more months if it's just going to sit there. Earnings are late April and the June $180s are $5.35 so selling 40 of those is $21,400 using 85 of 302 days remaining.  If AAPL goes up, we can roll and, if AAPL goes down, we sell another $20,000 and that can help pay for a roll. 

    The 2024 $120 calls are $62.75 (+$7.15 = $114,400), so that seems like a good investment but the 2024 $130s are $55.50, which is essentially an even roll and we don't pay $7.15 for $10 in position, do we?  So, let's consider the implications of rolling to the 2024 $130s.  We delay our payout and cut $160,000 from our spread but the premise is that the Jan $150s at $32 have $11 of premium that will expire and, at the moment, the 2024 $170s are $31.50 so, if all goes well, the Jan $150s will be rolled HIGHER than $170 AND we have another 12 months to sell short calls so the FREE roll to the 160 2024 $130 calls is a no-brainer.

    AAPL Long Call 2023 20-JAN 120.00 CALL [AAPL @ $171.12 $0.91] 160 1/20/2021 (302) $448,000 $28.00 $27.60 $7.69     $55.60 $0.05 $441,600 98.6% $889,600
    AAPL Short Call 2023 20-JAN 150.00 CALL [AAPL @ $171.12 $0.91] -160 1/21/2021 (302) $-360,000 $22.50 $9.45     $31.95 $0.46 $-151,200 -42.0% $-511,200
    AAPL Short Put 2023 20-JAN 125.00 PUT [AAPL @ $171.12 $0.91] -40 9/20/2021 (302) $-42,000 $10.50 $-6.30     $4.20 $-0.10 $25,200 60.0% $-16,800
    AAPL Short Put 2024 19-JAN 120.00 PUT [AAPL @ $171.12 $0.91] -20 10/15/2021 (666) $-25,500 $12.75 $-5.23     $7.53 $-0.08 $10,450 41.0% $-15,050

    The Butterfly Portfolio is $1,557,577 and we had $101,600 left to gain on AAPL (not counting $30,000 on the puts that aren't changing) but now we're rolling (in stages) to a wider, but still conservative, spread in 2024 that will add at least another $160,000 of potential gains and gives us 4 more quarters to sell $20,000 worth of short calls.  That's a good use of our $378,400 – call it $240,000 (63%) of additional upside potential added at the cost of 12 months of PATIENCE.  

    NFLX/Seer – There's simply a law of large numbers.  How many more people can afford to have NFLX?  They say they will cut down on sharing and that might help a little but it's not like people who can afford to pay $15/month are the ones who are cheating.  

     

    Will Netflix be able to revive its slowing subscriber base?

    Trending now: Netflix's forecast as competition heats up

    Remember when people were "stealing cable"?  I'm sure it still happens but cracking down on it wasn't the answer in the end.  NFLX and AMZN simply have all the people who can afford the service.  In AMZN's case – it's included with Prime so way cheaper than NFLX overall.  DIS and HBO are choices people make but people with kids can tell you DIS is not actually a choice.  

    NFLX is already more restricted than the other services – tightening their sharing policies may be counter-productive at this point:

    Netflix wants to make it hard on your friends & family by charging for password sharing - VistaNaij

    Also, people have unrealistic growth expectations.  It took NFLX 6 years to get to 50M and 5 more to get to 100M in 2017 and 5 years later they are over 200M – WTF do people want out of them?

    IBM/Stock – I think our Trades of the Year are locked in at this point.

    WBA I'd like to see build something that lasts this time:


  41. April 20th, 2022 at 12:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    I kick myself for not shorting NFLX, but was really considering RBLX puts $ 100 ago. 


  42. April 20th, 2022 at 12:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    COVID impact on China auto industry to continue into May, result in 20-40% production loss

    NIO -8.33%Apr. 20, 2022 11:58 AM ET

    China's latest COVID-19 outbreak has significantly impacted production, sales and supply in the country's automobile industry, with the impact expected to continue into May and result in a 20% to 40% loss in production, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on Wednesday.

    According to the CPCA, Chinese passenger vehicle wholesale sales in the first two weeks of April averaged 24K units/day, -44% Y/Y and -48% from the first two weeks of March.

    The CPCA said that car companies in areas where COVID has broken out are shutting down production due to shortages of controls and parts, and partly because highways are closed, leading to logistical shutdowns.

    Tesla (TSLA) suspended Shanghai factory ops as COVID-19 outbreak worsened. NIO (NIO) suspended production on supply chain issues.

    China's latest outbreak of COVID-19 cases began in early March, and authorities have since responded with strict control measures, sending millions of people into lockdown, especially in its commercial capital of Shanghai. The measures have hurt the world's second-largest economy and have reverberated through global supply chains.

    Hopes have recently been fanned that the tide is turning for China in its battle against the pandemic, with Shanghai on Wednesday reporting no new COVID-19 infections outside quarantine areas in two districts, according to Reuters.

    The CPCA also said that this year's new product launches are facing an overall adjustment in pace, bringing some impact on dealer marketing in April and dampening the regular fuel car sales environment.

    EU passenger car registrations down 20.5% in March

    VWAGY +0.69%Apr. 20, 2022 11:22 AM ET3 Comments

    • New passenger car registrations in the EU fell by 20.5% to 844,187 units in March, followed by 6.7% decline in February, mainly due to ongoing supply chain issues, further worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • In Q1, new car registrations fell by 12.3% Y/Y to 2,245,976 cars. All four of the major EU markets saw decreases, led by Italy -24.4%, France -17.3%, Spain -11.6% and Germany ?4.6%.
    • European Union March registration -24.3% for Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), -32.9% for Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), -14.1% for Renault (OTC:RNSDF), +0.5% for Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), -20.5% for BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), -13.6% for Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DMLRY), -16.1% for Ford (NYSE:F), -12.2% for Toyota (NYSE:TM), +21.7% for Honda (NYSE:HMC), -35.8% for Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF), -32.4% for Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) and +5.5% for Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY).
    • Past twelve-month sales trend of the EU market:

    Fed's Daly says its 'prudent' to hike policy rate to 2.5% by year end

    Apr. 20, 2022 11:58 AM ET

    San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said Wednesday that it's "prudent" for the central bank to lift its near-term target rate to a "more neutral stance," or 2.5% in her view, according to a speech. This compares with the current target rate of 0.25% to 0.50%.

    “I see an expeditious march to neutral by the end of the year as a prudent path,” Daly emphasized. “We will continue to evaluate the data and the risks, but today I see little indication that the economy needs policy accommodation,” she added.

    Meanwhile, markets and some Fed officials have already signaled that the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's policymaking arm, could hike the interbank lending rate by half percentage point at the upcoming May meeting, with more increases expected through year end. Goldman Sachs in March predicted half-point rate hikes in May and June, as well as four 25-basis-point hikes at the remaining meetings of 2022.

    With the unemployment rate standing at historical lows, Daly said that the Fed's mandate of maximum employment has been reached, though its price stability goal remains "far away" from its average target amid persistently higher inflation. She added that "we still have significant work to do" to bring down surging inflation.

    On April 19, Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic also called for the Fed to hike to neutral, but warned on the speediness of those rate increases.

    Towards the end of February, Daly said it's time to exit extraordinary monetary accommodation.

    Chicago Fed's Charles Evans is open to 50 bps rate hike in May

    Apr. 20, 2022 11:09 AM ET1 Comment

    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is open to a 50-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's May meeting, he said during a moderated Q&A hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    If the Federal Reserve front-loads its rate hiking cycle with a 50-basis point hike in May followed by another 50 bps increase at the next meeting and 25 bps rate hikes at each of the four remaining 2022 FOMC meetings, the Fed will get to 2.25%-2.5% by the end of the year, he said.

    At that point, the policy rate would be neutral to slightly restrictive, Evans added. "We'll probably get to to a slightly restrictive stance."

    Still, he urges the policymakers to carefully consider the incoming data as they raise rates. "It's not going to make a heck of a lot of difference if you get there" in December or March, Evans said.

    When asked if the Fed should adjust its policy framework to increase its inflation target to above 2%, Evans said, "I sense there's no appetite among central bankers for a higher inflation target. That's a non-starter."

    Update at 11:30 AM ET: In speaking about the possibility of pursuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), Evans mostly emphasized the need for the Fed to continue research in the area. He was mostly non-committal about the need for establishing a CBDC, saying higher authorities (think Congress) would have to "allow more aggressive actions to be taken."

    On Tuesday, Evans said he expects the Fed will boost its policy rate above neutral. Earlier this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to get the federal funds rate to at least 3.5% by the end of the year.

    Rio Tinto's Q1 production miss could keep shares from recovering, analyst says

    RIO -3.88%Apr. 20, 2022 11:41 AM ET2 Comments

    Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) plunges more than 4% in Wednesday's trading following a weaker than expected Q1 operations update, which saw Q1 Australian iron ore shipments fall 8% Y/Y and 15% Q/Q.

    Another soft operational update "continues to shine a light on the challenges Rio Tinto is facing," RBC Capital analyst Tyler Broda writes, and could prevent the stock from recovering after its recent underperformance, noting that other than bauxite, every division missed his expectations in Q1.

    Broda also believes Rio's (RIO) weaker than expected copper production is a negative read-through for joint venture partner BHP (BHP), which reports its quarterly operational results Thursday.

    In a more optimistic take, Jefferies analysts say Rio's (RIO) Q1 production and shipments might have been relatively soft, but the investment case should improve over the course of 2022 as its iron ore product quality gets better and its aluminum output rises.

    Jefferies sees higher copper production, the possible takeover of Turquoise Hill and operational improvements also helping, but the miner could face a temporary period of weaker commodity prices due to lower demand later this year.

    Rio Tinto (RIO) should continue to generate substantial cash flow from its asset portfolio as prices remain strong through 2022, The Value Portfolio writes in a bullish analysis posted recently on Seeking Alpha.


  43. April 20th, 2022 at 12:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

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    Kicking/Randers – If only our foresight were as good as our hindsight…

    Jefferies advises caution on Chinese casino stocks

    Apr. 20, 2022 10:57 AM ET1 Comment

    Casino stocks have enjoyed a solid start to the week, with even China-linked stocks making a slight comeback in the short term.

    Chinese stocks are attracting increased attention as Shanghai’s strict lockdown appears to be loosening. On April 20, the epicenter of the latest outbreak allowed millions of residents to roam free for the first time in weeks. Per government health official Wu Ganyu, the virus is “under effective control” in many parts of the country’s most populous city.

    The trends in Shanghai could bode well for Macau’s gaming industry which has been hampered by similar restrictions to those seen in Shanghai as well as tamps on tourism and travel. However, Jefferies is advising that expectations of a rapid recovery for gaming in China is overly optimistic.

    “We now believe any recovery is likely to be delayed past the upcoming May's Labor holidays in China, as border controls remain in place with growing 5-day average local COVID infections, and with 25 Chinese provinces reporting local infections in past 5 days,” a team of analysts led by Andrew Lee wrote in a note to clients.

    The team added that while pent-up demand will drive the eventual recovery, the speed of that recovery should not be overestimated. Likewise, the impact of recent financial turmoil stemming from shutdowns cannot be discounted.

    “Macau will be the destination of choice for Mainland China tourists, but the accumulating financial impact of the pandemic should not be overlooked as timing becomes increasingly blurred and unclear given the zero-tolerance policy in China, Hong Kong and Macau,” the team wrote.

    The team of analysts recommended a bias toward US names, with top global picks including MGM Resorts International (MGM), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), and Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN).

    Other Macau-based casino stocks impacted include: Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF), Macau Legend Development Limited (OTCPK:MALDF) and Studio City International (MSC).

    EIA inventory report – Crude inventory falls unexpectedly

    CL1:COM -1.47%Apr. 20, 2022 10:30 AM ET29 Comments

    That's a big draw but oil still plunged back to $100.

        

    Recession fears are now overriding the reality of the war but the indexes certainly aren't looking like they see a Recession coming.


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    Existing home sales fall more than expected in March

    Apr. 20, 2022 10:02 AM ET2 Comments

    • March Existing Home Sales: -2.7% to 5.77M vs. 5.860M expected and 5.93M prior (revised from 6.02M).
    • Y/Y, existing home sales fell 4.5%.
    • Inventory of unsold existing homes rose to 950K at the end of March, representing 2.0 months at the monthly sales pace. that's up from the 1.7 month's supply in February.
    • "The housing market is starting to feel the impact of sharply rising mortgage rates and higher inflation taking a hit on purchasing power," said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtor's chief economist.
    • As mortgage rates are expected to rise more, he sees transactions contracting by 10% this year, for home prices to readjust, and for gains to grow 5%.
    • The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $375.3K, up from $357.3K in February and $326.3K in March 2021.
    • Earlier, MBA Mortgage Applications drop 5% as mortgage rates hit 12-year high

    Vale poised to open lower after disappointing Q1 iron ore production

    VALE -2.13%Apr. 20, 2022 9:25 AM ET

    Vale (NYSE:VALE) -1.7% pre-market after reporting late Tuesday that Q1 iron ore production sank 22.5% Q/Q and 6% Y/Y, weighed by heavier than expected rainfalls in Brazil's Minas Gerais state.

    Production also fell due to major maintenance, which Vale (VALE) said should be positive for the rest of the year, allowing the company to maintain its annual guidance of 320M-335M metric tons of iron ore.

    Q1 iron ore fines and pellets shipments fell 35% Q/Q and nearly 10% Y/Y.

    Analysts at J.P. Morgan cut Vale's (VALE) FY 2022 sales estimate by 5M metric tons to 315M tons warned of potentially downward earnings revisions, Bloomberg reports.

    Separately, Vale (VALE) said it has begun working on another of the five upstream tailing dams it expects to eliminate in 2022 as a safety measure to prevent collapses.

    The new effort will focus on eliminating a dike from its Barragem 5 dam at the Aguas Claras mine in Minas Gerais, Reuters reports.

    Vale (VALE) "has a great opportunity to be the primary ore and mineral supplier for most of the west," Sandis Weil writes in a bullish analysis published on Seeking Alpha.

    Costco and BJ's land higher estimates at Loop Capital because inflation may work in their favor

    COST +1.08%Apr. 20, 2022 8:48 AM ET12 Comments

    Loop Capital Markets raised estimates on both Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ) on its view that inflation could end up being a tailwind for sales.

    "We believe traffic is growing for both companies as their competitive gas and food prices drive consumers to the clubs," updated analyst Laura Champine.

    Champine hiked the price target on Costco (COST) to $650 from $645 and raised the PT on BJ's Wholesale (BJ) to $80 from $70 on the expectation for higher revenue.

    A big wildcard with both Costco (COST) and BJ's Wholesale (BJ) is that the retailers could be in line to fire off membership fee increases this year.

    Champine noted that Costco (COST) has historically raised membership fees every five and a half years.

    "This June marks five years since the last fee increase. We think the likelihood of a fee hike announcement is increasing each quarter. We also expect BJ’s to follow Costco’s fee hike based on historical patterns."

    Costco (COST) rose 0.56% in premarket action to $597.64 and BJs Wholesale Club (BJ) gained 0.63% to $70.00.

    Compare growth, profitability, and valuation metrics on Costco and BJ's.


  55. April 20th, 2022 at 12:27 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Sorry for the delay everyone. Here is the link to today's webinar.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1829680130116827151


  56. April 20th, 2022 at 12:53 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Look forward to the webinar. Need a crystal ball for next week!


  57. April 20th, 2022 at 12:59 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Nasdaq is down 187 but the Dow is up another 300 so that's 800 points in 2 days – not bad.  

    I guess we just blame NFLX…

    Europe seems happy too.  

      

    She's a Fascist": Parisian VCs and Tech Entrepreneurs Are Scared of Marine Le Pen

    This is her Dad:

    Jean-Marie Le Pen, a French Fascist politician, said in 2014 in the context of a discussion of the

    Jean Louis Marie Le Pen (French pronunciation: ?[??? ma.?i l?.p?n], born 20 June 1928) is a French far-right politician who served as President of the National Front from 1972 to 2011. He also served as Honorary President of the National Front from 2011 to 2015.

    He graduated from the faculty of law in Paris in 1949. After his time in the military, he studied political science and law at Panthéon-Assas University.

    Le Pen focuses on issues related to immigration to France, the European Union, traditional culture and values, law and order, and France's high rate of unemployment. His progression in the 1980s is known as the "lepénisation of minds" due to its noticeable effect on mainstream political opinion. His controversial speeches and his integration into public life have made him a figure who polarizes opinion, considered the "Devil of the Republic" among his opponents or the "last samurai in politics" among his supporters. He has been convicted for statements downplaying the Holocaust, and fined for incitement to discrimination regarding remarks made about Muslims in France.

    His longevity in politics and his five attempts to become President of France have made him a major figure in French political life. His progress to the second round in the 2002 presidential election left its mark on French public life, and the "21st of April" is now a frequently used expression in France. A former Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Le Pen served as the Honorary President of the National Front from 2011 to 2015. He was expelled from the party by his daughter Marine in 2015, after new controversial statements.

    Brass balls is more like it, Pman…

    Webinar Time!


  58. April 20th, 2022 at 1:05 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    FB following NFLX down to 202


  59. April 20th, 2022 at 3:50 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    FB/Yodi – I was saying in the Webinar, it's very possible they are going to suffer from the same retracement as NFLX after the pandemic surge.   Of course, this was obvious to us in the first place – that's why we thought they were over-priced at the time.   We did pick up a long position in FB in March though as I thought $200 was low enough – but very small and we've been selling the short-term puts and calls but I thought earnings would be decent so we didn't sell the calls yet in this cycle.  

    FB is certainly not like NFLX as they make $35Bn to cover their $600Bn valuation and the growth has been considerable – it's a question of whether they have more room to grow from here but GOOGL has $303Bn in sales and makes $77Bn while FB has $130Bn in sales to make $35Bn so better margins for FB and plenty of Ad Dollars out there still to capture plus whatever the Metaverse actually adds.  


  60. April 20th, 2022 at 4:13 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    TSLA with a huge turn around on earnings.  


  61. April 20th, 2022 at 4:23 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil / LRCX

    Lam Research press release (NASDAQ:LRCX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $7.40 misses by $0.11.

    Revenue of $4.06B (+5.5% Y/Y) misses by $180M.

    Non-GAAP gross margin of 44.7%, non-GAAP operating income as a percentage of revenue of 29.4%.

    Outlook: Non-GAAP Revenue expected between $4.20B, +/-$300M vs. consensus of $4.45B.

    Gross margin of 44.5%,

    Operating margin of 29.5%,

    EPS of $7.25, +/-$0.75

    Shares -2.39%.


  62. April 20th, 2022 at 10:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Let's break down the TSLA earnings with margins improving?! Accounting trick???