Monday Market Movement – Earnings Season Begins

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ImageGood news or bad news?  

We finally begin to get some earnings results for Q2 this week and, more importantly, guidance for Q3.   We’ve certainly been told for the last two weeks that everything is terrible and we’re either heading into or in a Recession or already in one, etc. etc. and now we’ll see if that matches up with the data we get from the actual companies who are doing business in this economy.  

We have a lot of bullish bets on the table but also a lot of hedges but, on the whole, we’d rather see positive developments than negative ones.  Either way, we should have a bit clearer picture of what lies ahead by the end of the month. 

Other economic data this week is sparse – just some housing data with the Philly Fed and PMI towards the end of the week and no Fed speak as there is a meeting next week so it’s all about earnings until then.  

Goldman Sachs (GS) already delivered a 10% beat and we hope to see some more – especially as we are at such a critical technical juncture on the S&P 500.  As I’ve been saying all month, we have this positive MACD tailwind and if all we can do is hold the weak bounce line – it does not bode well for what will happen after the Fed meeting next week – especially if they tighten more than expected. 

S&P 500 with 5% Lines

That 50-day moving average is going to be very hard to cross if we blow this opportunity so 3,936 is the goal for this week – otherwise we could easily end up looking like late May/early June – when we were rejected at the 50 dma and took a 10% plunge in short order.  

That’s led to a month of media negativity and the good news about that is that analysts will be tripping over themselves to upgrade targets if they are proven wrong on reports like the one GS just put up – even though GS was one of the analysts telling people we were plunging into a Recession.  Of course GS is famous for telling Retail Investors one thing while telling their own clients something completely different – they are just evil like that…

Not a whole lot happened over the weekend – we’ll have to see how today goes:

 

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Good Morning.

Hi Phil,

I was more than double charged recently. During one of the site’s buggier days, I went to login and was redirected to the sign-up page. I clicked my same membership (annual with quarterly billing) and was subsequently charged for a full year. I’ve sent in two emails and tried chat over the past few weeks and haven’t heard any response. Can you do something about this?

Thanks,
Joe

Hi Phil,
The same thing occurred with me as well and I have sent a couple of e-mails and opened a help desk ticket. Appreciate if you could have your team look into this.

What is your take on BEN? Nice dividend; been around a long time; slow/steady; modest debt.
B/W Jan 23 25 p/c straddle plus dividend nets 29% if called @ 25. Trading today at $24.67.
Yodi, you like these type trades. What do you think?

ptas BEN yes I do like your play only they have only options untill 23. Low PE positive cash flow and low on the scale.

In this article

AAPL

APPLE INC

148.31USD-1.86-1.24%

Apple Inc. plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some divisions to cope with a potential economic downturn, according to people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg News reports.

The decision stems from a move to be more careful during uncertain times, though it isn’t a companywide policy, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The changes won’t affect all teams, and Apple is still planning an aggressive product launch schedule in 2023 that includes a mixed-reality headset, its first 

Phil – would now be a good time to enter KMI for a dividend position?

In this article

AAPL

APPLE INC

148.31USD-1.86-1.24%

Apple Inc. plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some divisions to cope with a potential economic downturn, according to people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg News reports.

The decision stems from a move to be more careful during uncertain times, though it isn’t a companywide policy, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The changes won’t affect all teams, and Apple is still planning an aggressive product launch schedule in 2023 that includes a mixed-reality headset, its first 

Phil. IBM – looks good to me confirmed outlook with FX risks — Thoughts?

IBM (NYSE:IBM) shares slipped in extended trading even as the IT services company posted second-quarter results that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
For the period ending June 30, IBM (IBM) said it earned $2.31 on $15.54B in revenue, aided by the company’s cloud computing business.

IBM (IBM) said its infrastructure business, which houses its cloud computing business, generated $4.24B in sales, up 19% year-over-year and better than the $3.76B that analysts were expecting. Its consulting business and software businesses also showed growth, generating $4.81B and $6.17B in revenue, respectively.

A consensus of analysts were expecting IBM (IBM) to earn $2.29 per share on $15.18B in revenue.
IBM (IBM) shares fell fractionally to $137.66 in extended-hours trading.
Looking ahead, IBM (IBM) said it expects constant currency revenue growth to be at the high-end of the mid-single digit estimates, with another 3.5% increase from incremental sales to Kyndryl (KD), its former unit, but that currency headwinds would knock roughly 6% off the growth rate.
IBM (IBM) also noted it expects around $10B in consolidated free cash flow for the year.
The company will host a conference call at 5 p.m. EST to discuss the results.
a.

Phil / Recession self fullfilling

I went to a baseball game with a CEO of a mid cap Co… he indicated that he sees his customers watching their cashflow and getting more conservative…. He is not negative on the outlook, but has to take this into consideration making his plans….