Will We Hold it Wednesday – Holiday Spectacular

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We’re back at S&P 4,000!

Of course it’s a low-volume, BS rally but we’ll take it as it certainly gives us plenty of time to cash out ahead of the holiday uncertainty.  As I said earlier in the week, we need to see EuroStoxx over 4,000 to confirm this madness in the US and, this morning, it’s at 3,934 – nowhere near as excited as the US exchanges got yesterday.  

Calculated Risk: MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly  Survey; Lowest Level Since 1997We have the tea leaves of the Fed Minutes to read at 2pm and we just got an actual 2.2% RISE in Mortgage Applications as rates paused just under 7% and Refinances are down about 86% from last year – to levels not seen since the days before the whole concept Refinancing was heavily promoted – over 20 years ago.

This is one of my market worry points as it indicates home equity can’t be used by consumers to offset their spending and that’s because it doesn’t make sense to refinance a 3% mortgage at 7% so, essentially, NO ONE who bought a home in the past 20 years has the ability to unlock the equity and that won’t change until rates are back below 4% – which is probably not in this decade.  

There were violent protests outside a Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou as workers, who have been under lockdown for weeks became furious about the bonuses that were being paid to new workers who showed up to replace the quarantined workers – quite a mess.  If the Government puts the protesters in jail – then they company has to hire more workers to replace them and the cycle continues.  All I know is I’d better get my new IPhone for Christmas! 😉

At least 6 dead in shooting carried out by disgruntled worker at Walmart in  Virginia, law enforcement saysIn other Human Tragedy News:  Virginia celebrated the Holidays with their 2nd mass shooting this month, this time leaving 6 dead at a Walmart in Chesapeake.  Last Sunday, 3 people were killed at the University of Virginia and, of course, on Saturday, 5 people were killed at a club in Colorado.  4 people were killed by lightning in November so you have a much better chance of being shot in America than you do of being hit by lightning.

Just this past July 4th, my daughter and her friend were sitting in a park in Philadelphia watching the fireworks when the crowd stampeded towards them as someone shot a couple of policemen.  “Hearts and minds” but nothing ever changes.  There have been 13 mass shootings in the US since Oct 1st – 2 per week!  It happens so often we hardly even mention it – that’s crazy!

That is from “Bowling for Columbine” 20 years ago.  13 kids were killed along with the two shooters and 21 more were shot, which is nothing compared to Las Vegas in 2017, when 61 people were killed and another 413 were shot in a single incident.  The Uvalde, Texas school shooting was this year with 22 dead and 18 more injured – “hearts and minds”…  Rather than doing something about it – we’ve had constant escalation with more and more powerful weapons available to the human hunters.   

So keep your head down and have a happy Thanksgiving, 

– Phil

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From the left over list of yesterday I can only see TROX and IP as a contender, even IP is already higher, on top I am only looking at div paying stocks over 3%, so not much to pick.

Just got assigned some short WHR Puts for a net of $175 (WHR is at $147 now). Thinking of DD here and selling the $150 2025 straddles for ~$55-60, to go with the $7 a year dividend.

WHR got the other day the 190 put could have opened a washing parlor with it.

hi phil

that 60 dollar oil cap thing from g7 wont really have any affect on oil price will it?
thanks

Hi Phil,
A couple of questions/requests for suggestions trying to play along at home, if you or others have some time  😀 :
Which portfolio is the recent META Top Trade assigned to?
I was assigned 100 VTOL a little while ago at $32.63 any suggestions?
I was also assigned 300 TQQQ at $45.12 and am short 3 x TQQQ Dec 16 2022 21.5 Calls also looking for suggestions?
Looking forward to the webinar

Thanks Phil,
You’re amazing at your job. Next time I’ll have to ask sooner, if I’m unlucky to be assigned

Good Morning.

D negative cash flow ?????

Phil / AVGO – don’t see any news has moved up about 40 pts in the last 5 days. don’t see any news… do you?

Good morning, everyone..Happy Thanksgiving!!
Here is the link to today’s webinar. No webinar next week.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4192486642541559309

Phil Googl 100/120 calls are around $8
Still a great trade

Hi Phil, You mentioned yesterday that you closed the Vale position but kept the short puts. I must have missed that one because I still have the original 2024 10/17 BCS for net $1.59 and 2024 15 short puts for net $6 .Not a large position but looking to raise cash was wondering whether to stick with it or cash out. TIA

That’s perfect, not an option I was thinking about, sometimes I get tunnel vision…Thanks again!

GNRC- not much interest on my part as I am with Yodi favoring dividend payers but could be an interesting speculative play. Why? It seems GNRC’s business model thrives on the further deterioration of the electrical grid which, among other things is aggravated by fossil fuel curtailment while GNRC’s main product line depends on the very same fuel which the present policy is to reduce such reliance. Now is this a dilemma or a dichotomy?

PSTS ./ GNRC – One of the key new competitors for GNRC is Batteries and specifically solar companies offering them. SEDG, and ENPH are both growing batt install space at about 80 to 90 percent per year. Not only do they offer continuous power up, but they allow for a one stop installation….. GNRC – if it does not move to batteries in a significant way- is not long for this world. and by the way, on the installation / manpower – Solar installers tend have a vast pool of independent companies to support them….once trained they provide great leverage

I’m wondering if the lower revenue is due to less new home starts as well as installer backlog

How much more dovish sentiment can there be for the markets to digest at this point. I think its all baked in here.