Fallback Thursday – Peace on Earth?

Infographic: The Most Desired Christmas Gifts in The U.S. | Statista“Father Christmas, give us some money
Don’t mess around with those silly toys
We’ll beat you up if you don’t hand it over
We want your bread so don’t make us annoyed
Don’t give my brother a Steve Austin outfit
Don’t give my sister a cuddly toy
We don’t want a jigsaw or monopoly money
We only want the real mccoy” – Kinks 

The Kinks were right, kids want CASH!!!

So, apparently do 68% of the Men and 86% of the Women surveyed – can you believe all that time we spent picking out jewelry?  I have always been a trend-setter in that regard – as soon as my kids figured out there was no Santa we went to gift cards and then quickly to cash.  Sure, I buy them something if I think they’ll really like it but they do seem to generally prefer the cash (given a week before so they can shop for their own friends).  

Yesterday we had a market rally because Consumers were much more confident than expected (108.3 vs 101.4 last month and 99.6 expected by Leading Economorons).  And I will emphasize Economorons because, on December 9th, Michigan Sentiment was 59.1 vs 56.9 expected, which is +3.8% yet expectations were not raised for Consumer Confidence, which is a SYNONYM for positive Sentiment!  MORONS!!!  

Of course Confidence increases because Gasoline fell from $2.80 in November to just over $2 at the time of the survey and rates were coming off the highs and food prices were coming down while companies have been handing out raises and student loans were being forgiven.  

Oil (/CL) is a good short here at $79.80 with a tight stop over the $80 line as $80 is ridiculously optimistic but we may spike into the holidays so either tight stops or the conviction to double down at $85 when there’s a $5,000 per contract loss.  A catastrophic freezing storm is brewing that will shut down Transportation and kill demand over the holidays.  


Of course, on news of Consumers being more confident (and China opening up), Gasoline is already back to $2.28 this morning and China re-opening will be a pull on the Global Supply Chain for months before it begins to help it.  And that’s IF China can avoid a catastrophic Covid pandemic from the re-opening.  

Notice in the chart that Inflation Rate EXPECTATIONS are down sharply and that’s pushing Confidence higher but when have their Consumers been accurate in their expectations?  As we’ve noted, there’s been a blitz from our Corporate Media Masters TELLING us Inflation is under control and it may be slowing but slowing is not stopping.  

As a person who lived through the 70s and 80s I can tell you that no one gives a damn about inflation as long as wages keep up (and you are employed) but if wages keep up, Corporate Profits will be squeezed and that’s not going to be good for the markets.  

Zelensky went to see Santa Claus Biden! | Cartoon MovementMeanwhile, all Volodymyr Zelensky wants for Christmas is Fighter Jets, Tanks and Long-Ranger Missiles and he sat on Biden’s lap yesterday and spoke to Congress where he told them that the aid provided by the U.S. wasn’t charity, but “an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.” 

The Ukrainian leader thanked Washington policy makers for approving tens of billions of dollars in aid for Kyiv. “Your support is crucial,” he said. But he added, “Is it enough? Honestly, not really.”  He said that he had discussed a 10-point peace formula with President Biden and that the President supports the peace initiative, including a potential summit. 

During the meeting, the Biden administration announced a new roughly $1.8 billion security-aid package for Ukraine. It includes for the first time a Patriot antimissile battery, as well as equipment that converts unguided munitions into precision-guided missiles. Ukraine’s electrical grid and other infrastructure have been pummeled by ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones that Russia acquired from Iran.

House Republicans are set to take the majority in January and likely will be resistant to more Ukraine spending. Some in the GOP conference have called for a full audit of how Washington and Kyiv have spent the money, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), who is running for House speaker, has said his Comrades in the Republican Party won’t write a “blank check” for Ukraine nor will he allow Trillions of Dollars of tax breaks to his wealthy donors to expire.  



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Good morning. I don’t recall seeing KSS mentioned lately. Definitely down hard but seems to still be overall, fundamentally sound, owns a lot of real estate, good dividend, good shopping experience.

Phil any thoughts on this? Thanks.

.Good points made, nearly 8% yield PE 6 right on the low side of the scale. All well but I must say another retailer. Sales for the present year has been reduced. Cash flow has turned from a good positive to a big minus. Do we need all the shopping at this questionable time?. I pass.

Nice summary, thanks. Won’t be long until $20 at this pace, lol.

Good Morning.

Just got assigned some FDX at net $187. Thinking of selling the 2025 $150 puts for ~$20, and selling the 2025 $185 calls for >$30 if it moves up further (maybe a santa claus rally next week)?

That makes sense, thanks Phil 🙂

I got out of one contract last night at 5.6. Now it’s sputtering. I think I will buy a February contract and wait. What do you think?

Ooops, dropping. Bad report?

Phil / MU Micron – earnings yesterday… dropping a bit… Earnings were in line outlook much lower on profit due to inventory being higher in channel. The key for them is if the industry cuts back on capacity and CAPEX next year Hynex already has, Samsun not yet…. your thoughts ?

When do we start looking at banks again? BNS was something we liked before. The current valuations look good, but I am inclined to wait till next earnings, I think deposits have been decreasing (especially HNW accounts) and being moved into money market/treasuries

Hi phil,
the gas report you are waiting on this afternoon is it the government eia weekly natural gas storage report?
Because i just looked it up and for some reason it says it was released at 10:30 am this morning.
just curious.

Phil / NG,

Do you suggest an entry into NG at 5.0?

with nvda and tsla down 9 percent today im thinking there must be some tax loss selling going on.

Phil any ideas on a new UNG play. thanks

thanks for the great trade idea.

phil, do you have an /NG trade on? what is your stop loss if you do?

ok, sorry i just saw your comment below that you have 2 at 5.28.

i bought 4 at 5.164. thanks for the update.

i averaged in for 4 at 5.13. Took some profits and day traded earlier in the week but got back in today.

Phil/ Looking to adjust 2024 BCS positions in WBA and Intel to 2025. In general would it be wise to roll down the Long calls and wait for a rebound to sell the shorts on a day like this. Kind of a generic question for fixing stock positions i want to stick with. Looking for a rule of thumb i guess…

Thanks Phil , the time decay starts the panic to set in. Keeping emotions out, is the hardest thing.

Today, I was assigned 100 shares of GPRO in exchange for -1 GPRO Jan 19 2024 10.0 Put. I still have 5 x GPRO Jan 17 2025 5.0 Calls from the Future portfolio. Any suggestions whether I should keep or sell them?

Thanks for the tip Phil. I guess I’ll have to do the less boring one  😉 

SPWR/ Almost back to where we got in. Great call Phil to get out at $24-5!
2025 15/25 call spread traded at $3.49 today

Thanks for sharing your analysis. $16 was the low back then so $3 on the spread would be our target after a $3 drop for the stock.
As you said it is almost time to get back in again!!!