Monday Market Mayhem – Up on a Single Data Point Ahead of Earnings


We are still rallying off of Friday’s wage slowdown.  

SPX Jan 9 2023

Yes, workers are not being paid enough to keep up with inflation and that brought the S&P all the way back to where we were on December 22nd – before we dove back to the bottom of our recent range the same day – so enjoy it while you can!  

I’m not sure what the thesis is for workers falling further behind the pricing curve preventing inflation but at least our Corporate Masters will see another quarter of nice income as lower wages certainly isn’t stopping them from raising prices, is it?  

Was the market a bit oversold?  Sure it was but the pundits on TV this weekend have been acting like we’re at the beginning of some kind of rally and they are simply clutching for ways to justify it while I’d rather wait until we have more evidence than a single day’s data and a low-volume rally. 

SPX2 Jan 9 2023

There’s not a lot of additional data this week but Powell does speak to Congress (which we finally have on the EXACT 15th vote I predicted, by the way) tomorrow, so we’ll see what he has to say.  There’s a few other Fed speeches including Bostic at 12:30 today and CPI is Thursday but not a lot of data.  What matters is earnings, which begin in earnest on Friday with the Big Banks:

Calendar Jan 9 2023

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Tilray #TLRY, Bank of America #BAC, UnitedHealth Group #UNH, JPMorgan Chase #JPM, Delta Air Lines #DAL, Commercial Metals #CMC, Wells Fargo #WFC, Citigroup #C, Acuity Brands #AYI, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) #TSM

In other news, Brazil has their own insurrection going on as Conservatives try to overthrow the election over there as well.  The US has given all losers in Democratic elections the playbook to overthrow Democracies with the same BS claims about stolen elections, baby-eating public officials, etc. 

The Hitler-ification of Donald Trump - The Washington PostThe movement is in its nature and inner organization anti-parliamentarian; that is, it rejects… a principle of majority rule in which the leader is degraded to the level of mere executant of other people’s wills and opinion.” – Adolf Hitler

This election will determine whether America is a free nation or whether we have only the illusion of democracy, but are in fact controlled by a small handful of global special interests rigging the system, and our system is rigged.” – Donald Trump.

In other news:


Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Happy Monday! Phil, how do you factor in the money needed for your occasional futures plays? For someone growing a portfolio, when should I carve out some cash for that?

much appreciated!

HI phil, would UNG be a candidate for a butterfly spread and if so how wide a spread should i take. thank you in advance

thank you very much phil

I wish they would show how buying a property to rent and renting a property to live in compares

Thanks Phil, makes sense

Good morning Phil!
I recently took a lump sum payout of a pension from a previous job. It will be in IRA where I cannot sell naked calls or do BCS’s. Since I have to own the stocks, I am wondering if the Dividend portfolio or Butterfly portfolio is best model? I remember you set something up a while back as an example for parents – is that different?

phil, what in your opinion is the likelihood that spx touches the 200 day at some point today? would you characterize it as ‘high’ or not?

i’m dying to short the futures but i just feel like the 200 days is going to pull this thing the last 30 points.

also, it seems like your 2 x the move in the dollar rule of thumb would indicate the spy can still climb today.

phil, i just wanted to fade the rise to the 200 and get your opinion on whether today, at the time i was asking, was a good day to do it. maybe i should have made it more clear what i was trying to do.

Hi Phil Just an other request. My SQQQ is running out this Jan. What is a good new play for Jan 25 TIA

I spent most of the weekend reading Bernanke’s new book (21st century monitory policy). Still got ~10% to go. It was an interesting read into his thoughts (however academic they might be). It was completed and edited in first half of 2022, so still obviously missed the inflation peak. However, it was instructive in some aspects. First, the Fed would like a higher interest rate so that they can cut when needed. Second, Powell introduced during the peak pandemic years the concept of FAIT, Flexible Average Inflation Targeting. While Bernanke and co had used a 2% inflation target, Powell revised it to have an average of 2%, i.e. have a moderately higher than 2% inflation rate if it had undershot the 2% number for a while so as to achieve a 2% average over time (moderately and over time not defined by the FAIT framework).

I think we stay above 5% into 2024 assuming no black swan, and the current movements pricing a rate cut this year are hard to understand. I am also not as convinced about a bad recession as everyone – primarily because if every economist is saying something will happen, it usually doesn’t (but that is subjective bias).

When I clicked your Hitler quote to learn more, this is what I got!??

Screenshot 2023-01-09 103719.png

Hi Phil, I am looking to add to my hedges so I am trying to go backwards through posts to look up the last portfolio review (which I believe you write around option expiration each month).

Is there a tab somewhere on the new site that links to these reviews? If not, it might be a good idea to add this to the wish list! I haven’t had any luck using the search feature on the site, which seems to not yet be at full functionality.


I bookmarked it at home if you’d like me to post the URL later this evening, JohnC1


Perhaps I am wrong, but your response seems extremely disrespectful. Thank you for that “hard won bit of knowledge,” “the fun of solving the puzzle for myself,” and “for giving me a couple of days” to “work it all out.”

Believe it or not, your members are not idiots and do not need to be spoken down to or ridiculed. Many of us, I imagine, are at least as accomplished in our professions as you are in yours.

Yes, I do know that option expiration week is the third week of every month. The point was that your Portfolio Reviews are a valuable reference and it might be useful to organize them all in one place, like they were on the old site.

This is a new site, which is in the process of being developed and perfected. If you find feedback or questions irritating, I’ll keep that in mind.

I do not think that it is a good business plan to distain your membership.

Fine, and thank you.

However, keep in mind that the Portfolio Reviews are so useful that sometimes one wants to see earlier reviews from several months or more back. In that case, they are not so easy to find by combing through posts, even with the third week of each month as a target.

Thus, the suggestion regarding organizing them under one tab.

Phil-GILD I have the following Gild BCS

10 – 2024 55 call net 17.43 now 31.65
-10 – 2024 70 call net 11.03 now 19.95

-6 -2024 60 put net 9.30. now 1.75

Would it be better to cash out and take my gain or use my 300 plus days and sell short calls. Appreciate your opinion.

looks to me you still miss 3.30 to get the full gain. Sure selling calls that is the idea.

Thanks guys…..Not sure if I’m that bullish on Gild for another BCS spread, but I do agree that waiting another year for a potential 3300 isn’t worth it considering what is or will be on sale, just thought if GILD was in a trading range it might be “safe” to sell a few naked calls against the existing spread.