Fallback Friday – Big Tech Misses But Markets Still Bullish?


Nasdaq 100 Chart HourlyWe had some huge gains yesterday. 

The Nasdaq broke all the way up to 13,000 before being rejected and, even though we had a disappointing earnings reports from Tech heavyweights like  Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL), we have, so far, only given up some of the gains.

In fact, if you apply our 5% Rule™ to the 1,000-point rally from 12,000 to 13,000, then our retraces would be 20% of the run (200 points), back to 12,800 (weak retrace) and 12,600 (strong retrace) and finishing the week over the Strong Retrace line at 12,600 would be a bullish indicator for next week – especially as we are now past the Fed.

NDX Feb 3 2023

The Nasdaq is, in fact, up 2,000 points (18%) for the year already at 13,000 and the pullbacks there would be 400 points so there’s nothing alarming about 12,600 and we could fall all the way back to 12,200 without being too alarmed – though it would be nicer if we held the 50-week (200-day) moving average at 12,324.  This is a huge and unexpected (by us) turnaround in the market.

We have Non-Farm Payrolls coming up shortly (8:30) and that will be a major data-point but other employment data indicates we should be well over the 200,000 new jobs expected by our leading Economorons, which the Fed considers way too hot but no one seems worried about the Fed anymore so Que Sera Sera, I guess.  

As I noted to our Members yesterday, we’ll have to do a bit of buying if this keeps up as we’re pretty bearish in our portfolio balances.  It’s not hurting us yet but it will if this keeps up.  

8:30 Update:  517,000 new jobs?!?  WTF?!?  There’s no way this doesn’t turn us lower as it’s the exact opposite of what the Fed wants.  How could they not have had an idea of this on Wednesday before they only raised rates 0.25%?  That’s an out of control number and unemployment is, of course, going the wrong way – now 3.4%

I think it’s great – F the Fed and their idiotic concept that it’s better to kill demand than boost supply to control prices.  More workers, more stuff, more Economy is the way to go.  More stuff and more people to load ships and trains and trucks fixes the supply chain and so what if we HAVE to pay them fair wages for a day’s labor – slavery was outlawed almost 200 years ago – Corporate America seems to have never gotten the memo…  

USD Chart Hourly517,000 new jobs means 517,000 x $4,000 ($2Bn) additional Dollars are required next month for payroll so the DEMAND for Dollars increases and the SUPPLY of Dollars doesn’t change that fast therefore – the Dollar goes up!  See how easy economics is?  

In fact, on Wednesday I said to our Members at 3:35:

Dollar testing 101 – that should be the first thing to turn as currency traders are a lot more sophisticated than equity traders (usually). 34,283, 4,145, 12,454 and 1,976 are where we are at the momnent. Dollar 102 would wipe out all these gains for the day.

We’ll see what happens as the Dollar was 102 Wednesday morning and the S&P was 4,075 – that’s down quite a bit from here and would turn us flat for the week, which would be a shame after all the excitement.

Have a great weekend, 

    • Phil 


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Phill – I think there were 180 workers in CA system… Interesting point from Bloomberg

Hiring was broad-based across sectors, led by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and health care. Government employment increased by the most since July, which reflected the return of University of California workers after the end of a strike.

48000 UC CA employees were on strike

wow, this is a fast market. this is unhinged.

Good Morning.

How would you net out recent economic developments (517k new jobs, etc vs dollar >102, etc)?

re my earlier question:
How would you net out recent economic developments (517k new jobs, etc vs dollar >102, etc)?

Sorry, forgot to add …”the effects of recent developments on the markets?


Speaking of Spotify, missed earnings and jumped up anyway. Makes no sense. Yeah, they increased Revenue but they still are losing.

I have my kids (21 and 16 yrs old) add songs to a playlist so I can see what they are listening to. There is some good new stuff out there and gives me a view into their world.

Wow, that’s a tough one, because ranking is so subjective. Example: I used to sing in symphony choirs before my voice got creaky in my old age. We often did Beethoven’s 9th, and one year the orchestra conductor had worked with us enough to feel confident we could do whatever he asked. One evening he was in a go-fast mood, and he took off on the final prestissimo. We, the choir, stayed with him, but his glasses flew off with the vigor of his conducting, and the principal bass player was exhausted. Every performance, even by the same group, is different.
So. I don’t know Spotify at all, I use you tube for classics, and I have a list that I love of classic pieces I’m compiling, by no means complete. For example, I have Alicia Sara Ott performing Beethoven’s Choral Fantasy (because of her interaction with the other soloists and the choir), Marita Solberg singing Solveig’s Song (because she’s Norwegian and really gets it), Mahler’s Resurrection Symphony led by Rattle, Rachmaninoff’s Vespers by almost any Russian group. I also really like Tito Gobbi, even thought that was long ago, as Rigoletto, because he understands the man caught in a job he hates because he can’t get past his handicap – who then blames everyone else for his problems.
Likewise, for Mozart’s “Don Giovanni” – is the Don a bit of a jerk who thinks highly of himself and collects women, finally falling in his hubris? Or is he truly evil, a rapist who is finally brought up short by vengeful spirits. I’ve seen both, and both are excellent.

Take Maddie to a live classical concert so she can actually see whats involved in creating the music.
Vail has a fantastic outdoor venue, with the Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York symphonies playing back to back in July. Its also a great way to beat the Florida heat
Bravo Vail

I dig performers-who-are-great-explainers, and in that vein there’s pianist James Rhodes providing commentary on some standout recordings. He has hipped me to alot of great stuff with (importantly) generally great sound quality, which I think is key to getting the younger ears interested.

There are 3 of these “talking playlists”

HBI starting to look like a MEME stock

Classical music. I think a big factor is that its so poorly reproduced with most peoples sound systems , few have vinyl or any system able to produce an engaging harmonic reproduction which is necessary . 2a3 tube was one of the finest triodes ever produced for music amplification and reproduction in my view , still in production today since 1920s.

The answer is to go to the concert in person. Support your local classical musicians! If you live in a big city, and prices are steep, go to your music school performances. I went to a performance of The Magic Flute by the USC music school, and it was great fun, a fine performance. And the Queen of the NIght had those high Fs, no problem.

Thanks for your take on the current market uncertainty and comparison with 2007/8. Indeed, a tough call even for an accomplished market seer/handicapper. Uncertainty – seems to be an integral part of life and the markets – and something that has to be addressed continually. Any thoughts on reducing the SQQQ hedges vs adding more longs?
Thanks again

Phil / RH – is put sale this an official add?

HBI – I was assigned stock from the short $13 puts. Would it make sense to sell the stock and buy a 2025 spread?

-27 TZA Jan 19 ’24 $60 Calls

+80 TZA Jan 17 ’25 $30 Calls


-50 TZA Jan 17 ’25 $60 Calls

Would you roll to 80 of the ’25’s 25’s and 80 of the ’25, 45’s?

Thank you so much Phil! I will do that.

phil, did you manage to get any of the SQQQ $30s for $13.50 today?

i’m confused. you mean i shouldn’t try to buy them today while they are cheap?

UNG bouncing off 8.00

we were talking about ONEM the other day. Today a trader rolled 10,000 Feb $15 puts to the Jan24
$12.50 puts. Looks like the 2024 sale was for $1.25

phil, did you manage to get any of the SQQQ $30s for $13.50 today?

thanks. got it. i had put in an order for 20 at $13.50 and i jsut wondered if anyone had managed to get any.

not panicing, but I don’t presently own as many as I’d like. i guess I am trying to top tick the bear market rally (if it is one and not a new bull) and grab something cheap.

Anyone, did you manage to get any of the SQQQ $30s for $13.50 today? I can’t execute any trades yet at that price.

Interesting discussion on music. I definitely like listening late at night. I have a few favorite headphones,
Sony Monitors, HiFMan Planar Magnetic, Sennheiser and decent noise cancelling kinds for the planes. I keep up on what the Audiophiles that have too much time & Money are saying on The Drop  Drop: Passions lead here.

ELP reminds me when we did a play at a hippie/alternative school. One of the scenes was a free form dance to
From the beginning https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/14.0.0/svg/1f60a.svg
From the Beginning – YouTube Music

what a wild day. and interesting. thanks to everyone.

That’s great thanks


Last edited 1 month ago by tangledweb