Which Way Wednesday – Post SOTU Moves


Biden spoke last night. 


The President pledged that America needed to “finish the job,” on keeping Drug Prices low, increasing Taxes on the wealthy, making Child Care and Housing affordable… saying there was a lot more left to do  to reshape Government programs on Health Care, Climate Change, Infrastructure and more.

He got booed for his troubles, from Republicans who shouted “liar” while he spoke, which made his calls for bi-partisanship kind of a joke.  The President sparred with Republicans, depicting them not as normal, but extreme.  The best example of this was on Medicare and Social Security, where he riled up House Republicans, accusing some of wanting to cut the popular entitlements. He was careful in that section to note that “some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years.”

Social Security Works on Twitter: "We will not cut Social Security. We will  not cut Medicare. Those benefits belong to the American people and they  earned them. If anyone tries to cutWhen Republicans took the bait and shouted that’s not true (it very much is), the President said “Good, we all agree, they are off the table” – a nice trick to put it out in front of the American people but it will never be off the table until we raise taxes to fund SS and Medicare properly or, God forbid, actually reform the system so it isn’t so expensive.  

With 65M Americans (20%) depending on Social Security for a large (sometimes all) of their income and on Medicare for their Health Insurance, the Democrats WANT them to be a major campaign issue.  Unfortunately for Republicans, the President looked sharp during the speech, making their “Senile Joe Biden” narrative harder to sell – even to their Fox-fed constituency.  

S&P 500 Chart HourlyWe had a huge rally yesterday after Powell spoke at a conference but, as you can see from the volume lines, more people actually sold than bought and we expect that to follow-through today as most of these rallies seem to end up being nothing but “pump and dump” – as Fund Managers and Banksters stir up excitement so they can dump shares on the Retail dip buyers.  

Speaking of Retail Buyers – yesterday’s Consumer Credit Report showed a 50% REDUCTION in spending in December and that does not bode well as Retailers begin to report their earnings.  As you can see from the chart, Savings are way down and Credit Card charging is way up and, apparently, we are reaching the limits Consumers can stand. 

At the same time, Credit Opportunities are being taken away from people and businesses, as standards a tightening in a way that usually signals a Recession.  Tightening standards indicate that the lenders don’t have confidence in the borrowers’ abilities to pay.  It is also a reflection of the banks’ abilities to put their money to work in less-risky ways.  With the riskless Fed Funds Rate now approaching 5%, why lend it to a consumer for 6.5%?

And on Wall Street, Investor Sentiment couldn’t be much lower, with only 32% of the clients surveyed by JP Morgan planning to increase their exposure in the near-term.  

We made some bearish moves in our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) hedges yesterday, taking advantage of the move up to add some cheap protection.  That puts us in a position to go shopping for some longs.  Just because the overall market may be hard to invest in, doesn’t mean there aren’t a few hidden gems out there that are worth our attention.  


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Good Morning.

The volatility in ENPH makes for exceptional premium. Like the DITM TSLA play floated when it was near 100, you can build a DITM BCS and finance nearly all of it with a DOTM put sale. When it bounced off 200 into earnings I picked up (4) ’25 150/200 spread against the sale of (2) 160 put for net $2000 on the $20000 spread. Still net $3500 after the pullback this morning, breakeven in the 160’s.

I just put the IQ8s into our residential rooftop array in SoCal. Installers all love them and a potent potential benefit of these systems for those of us affected by grid outages is that they are to my knowledge the only approved battery-free grid-forming inverter hardware out there at the moment. So while honoring all code requirements for grid islanding, you can keep your house powered during a grid outage for most of the day, running AC, fridge, powering EVs, etc – 50% or more of your array nameplate power. This was a major factor for us. The piece of hardware you need to support this is only ~$2k, much cheaper than even a too-small battery. Works as advertised in our testing. Microinverters of course also have substantial native efficiency advantages compared to string in a built environment where intermittent shade is unavoidable. I don’t see that substantial niche ever leaving them, and they’re competitive even without it. This engineer also likes that a single inverter failure takes out 1/24 of your capacity, not 100%. Swap it out at your leisure.

Last edited 1 month ago by gfoyle1

Phil. / ENPH – I”m not sure what the analysts are saying after earnings. I’ve been invested in them for the last 3 years…. This is my top renewable energy holding – SEDG and SPWR are my others. This is by far the best company in the industry.
They have a new inverter – IQ8 – that has the highest efficiency rating and the highest quality rating ( backed by the longest warranty in the industry) and short installation times which is key for their partners.  They are growing the EU business by +100% Y/Y and US by 50%. By the Way their profit is growing faster than revenues. Q4 profit growth of 190%m Revenue 75% growth.  The IQ8 which is driving a GM of north of 55% is only 65 Percent of sales and will grow to majority by end of year.  Operationally during the pandemic they ran better than most companies growing they business profitably.  The CEO is not only strong technically but he’s an outstanding operations guy. The Payback for the systems in EU is 5 years, and the US is also 5 years.  The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is going to drop an additional 20 to 30 cents per KW Hr to the bottom line. They they are now focusing on batteries.. They will ramps up a new design this year. This will not only improve installation time and capacity but also has higher margins.  I have them outlooked growing conservatively 

’23 45 % this for an EPS of 6.9Sh 
 ’24 at. 35% for a 8.9 / sh EPS

This warrants a 30 multiple and 300 ish in 24

Above no’s are no gaap

At what price does GOOG become attractive?

Same question here.

I dunno, that 90 day chart doesn’t make me eager to jump in.

How so?

I wonder if we asked Chat GDP if an option trade was bought or sold. Also could it look back to see if an option trade added to open interest?

For example, there were 800 Sept $50 puts traded in TFC. $50 is a little out of the money but the price looks closer to the asked than bid.

They are already using IBM Qiskit commercial interfaces as are the big HFT guys.

Where’s the link ?

Sorry. Didn’t know that THAT was the link. Lol


Here’s the headline: “Enphase shares sink on expectations for Q1 slowdown in U.S. business”

Here’s the reality: “Enphase (ENPH) forecast Q1 revenues of $700M-$740M, above $674M analyst
consensus estimate

”Here’s what the market focuses on: U.S. business will be “slightly down” in Q1 compared to Q4 2022, primarily driven by seasonality and the macroeconomic environment

I just tried and it said OpenAI was at capacity, but could notify me when it was available

WOW! Go Disney! 2.5bn in cost cuts 3bn in cost savings…. Looks like Peltz is really working his magic!