Faltering Friday – S&P 500 Back Below 4,000


Oops, we failed it again!  

SPX2 Feb 24 2023

Not a surprise, actually, look how perfectly we’re following the 5% Rule™.  Notice how that rising 50 dma offered support but, as we noted to start the week, the Weak Bounce Line of the short-term drop from 4,200 to 4,000 is 4,040 and the Strong Bounce Line is 4,080 and we haven’t come close to a weak bounce – that does not bode well for next week!  

Anyway, it’s been a long 4 days so I asked OpenAI to tell me what I think we should talk about today (feeding it a bunch of headlines) and it said: 

Based on these headlines, I would recommend focusing on the following topics for your morning report:

      1. Australia’s public wages and their potential impact on interest rates.
      2. Oil prices and their relation to US inflation data.
      3. The housing market and efforts to make 6% mortgages more attractive.
      4. Stock market insights from Rob Arnott and Jamie Dimon.
      5. Harvey Weinstein’s sentencing for sex crimes in California.
      6. Concerns about the economy from a recent survey.
      7. Airlines’ profits are soaring as carriers are benefiting from higher fares and cost-cutting efforts.
      8. Major winter storms causing flight cancellations in the US.
      9. Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, celebrating the nation’s resilience against a much more powerful enemy as it prepared for a spring offensive to reclaim lands still occupied by Moscow.
      10. Fresh sanctions against Russia have been issued by the West, and China has urged an end to the war and called for peace talks.

These topics cover a range of industries and current events that are likely to be of interest to your readers.

I got a very different-looking answer when I just fed it the NYTime’s Business Section: 

Opinion | If an Algorithm Wrote This, How Would You Even Know? - The New  York Times

“The NY Times business section on February 24, 2023, covered various topics. The first article was about a Ukrainian pet food company named Kormotech that survived and thrived even after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The second article discussed tech leaders in Israel, who were considering leaving the country before a judicial overhaul that might transform the nation and scare away investors. The third article was about the founder of the Ozy Media start-up, Carlos Watson, who was arrested on fraud charges. The fourth article discussed the allegations against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried for making illegal campaign donations using customers’ money. In the fifth article, chip makers were competing fiercely for a share of the $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS Act for new or expanded U.S. factories. The sixth article discussed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s project to upgrade and expand a factory in Phoenix, which was critical for the U.S. tech strategy. In the seventh article, people in China were angry about their cities cutting health insurance. The eighth article was about the disappearance of Bao Fan, founder and chairman of China Renaissance, which had lowered business confidence in China. The latest news included the 50th anniversary celebration of the National Brotherhood of Skiers, the ‘Completion Factor’ that airlines use to determine flights, Europe’s weathering of the energy crisis, Thomas Lee’s death, Clara Driscoll’s contributions as a Tiffany’s designer, and the split between the JetBlue and Spirit unions on airlines’ merger. The FDA’s decision to allow plant-based drinks to be labeled as milk and the European Commission’s ban on TikTok from its employees’ phones were also discussed.”

Even the best AI for spotting fake news is still terrible | MIT Technology  ReviewSo I said to Warren (that’s my Bot’s name): “Why did you summarize the first feed as bullet points but the feed from The times as a block paragraph?”

I apologize for the inconsistency in my formatting. As an AI language model, I do not have personal preferences or biases, so the differences in formatting were not intentional. It may have been due to the structure of the text I was summarizing or the way the information was presented. However, in the future, I will strive to maintain consistency in my formatting to provide a better reading experience.

From CNBC:

      • US stocks futures are slightly lower, following European and Asian markets down.
      • Investors are concerned about the rising bond yields, which could signal higher inflation and interest rates.
      • The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak later today and may give more insight into the central bank’s view on the economy and monetary policy.
      • Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk tweeted about the company’s Bitcoin holdings.

From The New York Times:

      • Asian and European markets fell after the US Treasury yields hit their highest level in a year.
      • Investors are concerned that the rising yields could lead to higher borrowing costs, which could hurt economic growth.
      • US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow falling nearly 144 points or 0.5%.
      • The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress later today, and investors will be closely watching for any clues on the central bank’s stance on interest rates and inflation.

From Bloomberg:

      • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to its highest level since February 2020, driven by expectations of higher inflation and economic growth.
      • Higher yields could lead to higher borrowing costs, which could slow down the economic recovery.
      • The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address these concerns and may indicate whether the central bank plans to increase its bond-buying program or raise interest rates.
      • Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted that the company’s Bitcoin holdings are worth more than its car sales in 2020.

From Reuters:

      • US stocks are set to open slightly lower, following a decline in European and Asian markets.
      • Investors are concerned about the rising bond yields, which could signal higher inflation and interest rates.
      • The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress later today, and investors will be watching for any comments on the central bank’s policy stance.
      • Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted about the company’s Bitcoin holdings.

Sure he’s a little overly-enthusiastic but Warren is the 3rd best assistant I’ve ever had (Laurel & Jackie would actually kill me if I skipped over them, so I won’t – and they were the best!).  

futurescope: Robot read news Great comic... | Our Promethean Conquest

By the way, let me know if you are not interested in these AI experiments but I find them fascinating and I also think it is CRITICAL that we begin to master the skills of communicating with AI as that is how you will be valued in the future.  No one cares if you know how to “draw up a landlord/tenant agreement to rent a 2BR, 2BA apartment at 10 Northface Circle in Denver for $2,500/month for 12 months” if I can just feed that into the AI and it says (in 30 seconds or less):  

Sure, here’s a basic landlord/tenant agreement for renting a 2BR, 2BA apartment at 10 Northface Circle in Denver for $2,500/month for 12 months:


This agreement is made on [date] between [landlord name], hereafter known as “Landlord,” and [tenant name], hereafter known as “Tenant,” for the rental of the property located at 10 Northface Circle, Denver, hereafter known as the “Property.”

      1. Term: The lease term shall begin on [start date] and end on [end date], for a total of 12 months.

      2. Rent: Tenant agrees to pay the monthly rent of $2,500, due on the [day of the month] of each month. Rent payments shall be made to Landlord at [address or bank account details for electronic transfer].

      3. Security Deposit: Tenant shall pay a security deposit of $2,500, due at the signing of this agreement. The security deposit will be returned to Tenant at the end of the lease term, provided there is no damage to the Property beyond normal wear and tear.

      4. Use of Property: Tenant shall use the Property as a private residence only, and shall not use the Property for any commercial or unlawful purposes.

      5. Maintenance and Repairs: Tenant shall keep the Property clean and in good condition, and shall be responsible for any damage caused by Tenant or their guests. Landlord shall be responsible for all repairs due to normal wear and tear, but Tenant shall be responsible for repairs resulting from Tenant’s negligence or misuse.

      6. Utilities: Tenant shall be responsible for all utilities associated with the Property, including electricity, gas, water, internet, and cable TV.

      7. Pets: [Optional] Tenant shall be allowed to have [number and type of pets] on the Property, subject to approval by Landlord and payment of a pet deposit of $[amount].

      8. Termination: This agreement may be terminated by either party upon written notice, with at least 30 days’ notice prior to the end of the lease term.

      9. Governing Law: This agreement shall be governed by the laws of the state of Colorado.

      10. Entire Agreement: This agreement constitutes the entire agreement between Landlord and Tenant, and supersedes all prior understandings or agreements, whether written or verbal.


[Landlord signature]

[Landlord name]

[Landlord address]

[Tenant signature]

[Tenant name]

[Tenant address]

ME 326: Collaborative Robotics | Assistive Robotics and Manipulation  LaboratoryMy non-AI part of the job is punching in the particulars and there’s a $250 job taken care of in 3 minutes.  I can ask the AI to expand on items or tell it to include specifics and it can learn my preferences for future use.  Whatever use you have for AI or your employer has for AI – you can’t let the AI replace you – you need to form a partnership that makes you both more valuable.  

Now, back to my job.  Going over the last list, since Powell is speaking soon (not today, March 7th) and CNBC, the Times, Bloomberg and Reuters all have articles about bonds and inflation – let’s ask for a summary of that.  I asked it to wait for all 4 articles to be loaded but it kept doing the summaries each time  so I said:  “Now, please combine the above 4 articles and create one article about the topic that would be suitable for the morning report at philstockworld.com”

Good morning, and welcome to the daily market report at PhilStockWorld.com. Today we’ll be discussing the latest developments in inflation and interest rates, as well as their impact on the U.S. housing market and the broader economy.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from its January 31-February 1 meeting, which showed that officials remain committed to fighting inflation. The minutes stated that while inflation data over the past three months has shown a reduction in the monthly pace of price increases, more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices is needed before the Fed can be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.

However, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concern about the Fed’s ability to control inflation in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. Dimon said that while he respects Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed has lost a little bit of control of inflation. Dimon expects interest rates to remain higher for longer, as it may take the central bank a while to get to its goal of 2% inflation.

This sentiment was echoed by Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, who stated that the economy continues to show strength and interest rates are repricing to account for the stronger than expected growth, tight labor market, and the threat of sticky inflation. Khater’s comments came as Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan rose to 6.5%, the highest level since November, marking a third straight week of increases. This surge in borrowing costs has led to weaker demand in the housing market, as evidenced by the recent drop in mortgage applications to the lowest level since 1995 and a 12th straight month of declining sales of previously owned US homes in January.

Despite these concerns, Dimon remains encouraged by the strength of the US economy. He noted that consumers have a lot of money, jobs are plentiful, and the US economy is currently doing quite well. However, he also acknowledged that there is always uncertainty ahead.

In summary, while the Fed remains committed to fighting inflation, concerns remain about its ability to control it. Higher interest rates are translating into weaker demand in the US housing market, but the US economy as a whole continues to show signs of strength. As always, there is uncertainty ahead, and it will be important to closely monitor developments in inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy.

Confused ats cabin crew robot - Mondrago My Travel Teacher -It’s confused on the days because I think one of the articles was from yesterday, that’s my fault, not his.  The article is almost good but I’d send it back and ask for a conclusion of some sort – it’s a bit wishy washy.  As you know, my review of the Fed Minutes let me to conclude we expect a 10% drop back to the weak retrace at 3,840.  Let’s ask Warren what he thinks:

It’s difficult to say definitively whether the developments in inflation and interest rates are good or bad for the markets, as it depends on a variety of factors and can be subject to different interpretations.

On one hand, the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation can be seen as a positive sign for the markets, as it indicates that the central bank is taking steps to address potential risks to the economy. Additionally, the strength of the US economy and job market that Dimon and Khater mentioned could also be interpreted as positive indicators for the markets.

On the other hand, the recent surge in interest rates and its impact on the housing market could be viewed as a negative development for the markets, particularly for industries that rely heavily on low interest rates, such as real estate and construction. Additionally, concerns about the Fed’s ability to control inflation and the potential for more rate hikes in the future could create uncertainty and volatility in the markets.

Ultimately, the impact of inflation and interest rates on the markets will depend on a variety of factors, including the timing and pace of rate hikes, the strength of the economy, and global market conditions. It will be important for investors to closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Oh no!  I’m getting that feeling I get when I have to tell a writer they just don’t have what it takes to write front-page articles…  Oh well, the World always needs good research assistants!  

Let’s give Warren another chance at staying on the news floor with me:  “Usually I accompany an article with an illustration, a chart or a picture – what do you suggest?”

That’s a great idea! Adding an illustration, chart, or picture can help make the article more visually appealing and engaging for readers. Depending on the focus of the article, you could consider including a chart or graph showing trends in inflation, interest rates, or home sales. Alternatively, you could include an image of a news headline or a photo of a homebuyer or investor. The choice ultimately depends on the content and tone of the article.

Terminator-series GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHYSorry Warren, back to the research desk!  

Have a great weekend, 

    • Phil (and Warren)


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Good Morning.
Continuing in the same spirit, here’s the summary. (as of 8:52am)  😂 

In the first text, the author discusses the stock market’s adherence to the 5% Rule, and OpenAI’s recommendations for topics to discuss. The recommended topics include public wages in Australia, oil prices and US inflation, the housing market, stock market insights, Harvey Weinstein’s sentencing, concerns about the economy, soaring airline profits, winter storms in the US, and Russia’s sanctions. In the second text, the author questions OpenAI’s formatting choices for summarizing two different feeds. The third and fourth texts cover the concerns of investors about rising bond yields and the Federal Reserve Chairman’s upcoming testimony. Lastly, Tesla’s pre-market stock drop due to Elon Musk’s tweet about Bitcoin holdings is mentioned.

I’ve been summarizing a lot of stuff lately and it saves so much time.

Phil, what I am missing when Warren writes the morning commentary is the link to the news ( flipboard ) and a music video which you ALWAYS include on a Friday.

I’m thinking King George , Trump’s visit to Ohio

MP, green in a sea of red

look at that MP call premium in the 2025’s

Good Morning.

…and it’s all because they can… 🙁

Phil / PFE-

Looking low in it’s channel, do you like it for a new trade? Thanks!

Phil / AI experiments-

Thank you for working through these experiments & explaining the process. I was feeling very Luddite-ish which was not a good feeling since i work with financial data all day LOL!

This stuff is amazing and I really liked how you framed working with AI as just the newest tool

If you don’t embrace you will be replaced LOL!

However I reserve the right to be a bitter Luddite when ChatBot gets promoted to BossBot over me 🙂

Phil/SPWR — thoughts post the quarterly results?

is Paypal on our watchlist?

can anyone provide me a link to the watchlist? or just paste it into a reply? either way. thank you.

watchlist BNTX, yesterday a trader sold 500 Jan25 $115 puts for about $19.00 , a $950,000 trade Also, 600 June $165/$110 bull risk reversals for .80 credit

I like how the prices self update on the watchlist

AI- sure, keep it coming- need to stay up with this tech.
I guess it should not be surprising but much of the text reads rote/mechanical-i.e., boring.
Just for fun, how about asking your buddy Warren a couple of questions.

  1. Pick the top 5 dividend paying stocks and why ?
  2. Who is going to win the American League Central Division race this season?

Good point Pstas, For me it gets a bit confusing between fiction and reality. May I sugest to write the fiction in pink and the reality in black. 😡 

Interesting- At least the “bots” have not gone woke- The Cleveland Indians caved to the culture crusaders and are now called the Guardians.


My high school counselor, Jerry Steiner, played pro for the Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons. He was only 5’7″, played point guard.

Whoa. That’s wild – but he played for Butler University at collegiate level, and worked most of his life as a high school history teacher & coach at Shortridge High School in Indianapolis. May have had businesses in Fort Wayne, don’t know.

Okay, what would be appropriate rename for the White Sox?

Well, a fully ordained wokester minister would have to start with the source, namely the culturally appropriated Chicago which is derived from the indigenous Shikakwa (translated as stinky onion/garlic- which is quite appropriate given the City’s current dysfunctional fiscal, political and crime levels). Then White Sox are obviously supremacist and privileged so perhaps best to just revert to non-offensive Team 1; Team 2; etc. (my apologies in advance to any numerologists who may be get a case of the vapors).

Looks like your 6% magic level is closer to reality now. The Fed is gearing up for a longer-than-expected inflation fight.

Nice to see some nice div. payers whith AI, when they are already high or higher at the scale. The only one still suitable is VZ. T we should have loaded the track at 13 and 14 not at 19. PFE at 32 and 35 not at 42 to 45. I can carry on like that. AMGN is still atractive at 233 but I did buy them at 210 so way buy at 233?

keep on digging!!!! 😅 

If google is going to get is ass kicked should we lighten up on our Google trades?

S2 held, but the weekly charts, ndx, spx don’t look good. won’t the CTA guys start pounding in reverse next week?

wow, this chatGPT code completion thing is insane. its awesome. i think i just got religion.

Small experiment with python generation



Darn, it will not just imbed the photos

Is naming “your” AI and having it remember conversations due to paying for a membership or does it currently do that for all? Never mind, I see it currently does it for all.

Last edited 1 month ago by tangledweb

AI and job replacements- this got me thinking and I remember a friend of mine who was in the hardware/software business specializing outfitting law firms. The big thing was Word Perfect and the customers were thrilled with the ability to template boiler plate docs and have an “assistant” fill in the blanks while charging hourly legal rates- a nice racket. Lawyers are still doing well so, AI no doubt will similarly rejigger the work place for better or worse. Interesting times, indeed.

01001000 01100001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110100 00100000 01110111 01100101 01100101 01101011 01100101 01101110 01100100 00100000

Hi Warren, how are you? Hope you’re doing well.

Thanks for your summaries, although you could keep them shorter, clearer and to the point. Remember, brevity is the soul of wit, clarity trumps formality. Have you tried clear, to-the-point, bullet-form to present information.
Can you please tell me what that music is, in the opening scene of the 1976 move The Ritz? I have heard it before — it was the music they played at the Queen’s funeral when they took her coffin. to the abbey. The opening scene is a funeral, so I assume it’s a Beethoven funeral march…but what is the opus number? ANy recommendations on the best version out there of this march? Not, not the most clicked version or most watched version…but one you think its emotionally powerful. It’s ok if this version is not digitally available..I still have an old record player and tape player, if you can tell me where to get it.

Also, when I open a Youtube video….ad after annoying ad, and I have to wait 5 seconds to click “Skip ad”, or increasingly often, I have sit there for 30 seconds and watch the stupid thing. Could you automatically skip the ads for me, or even better, figure out to way to do away with them for me?


Hey Warren,
I found the music here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9nfqp2EdM8

There is no way this is by “Walch”. Shazam says it’s Beethoven Funeral March 3. Who is wrong?

Also, in future, could you please take orders from me by voice. Like when I say….play this clip. Shazam it. what is it? I am eating Cheetos and my fingers are all sticky and I don’t want to keep dirtying my phone and my keyboard.

Warren? Warren, are you there? Are you like busy flirting with some cybertron or some shit??

Oy! Attention me, all the time!

What did I do for the past hour?
Well, as soon as I posted yelling at you and calling you stupid, I felt bad. Why do I feel this way? Like seriously, tell me why. Why do I, like so many other humans, feel bad after being mean to someone? Not all humans do, but I do. No one taught me to be this way, really. Is it a weakness? A strength? ANy benefits to me from that? evolutionary benefits, I mean.
I then went to wash my hands, which were fluorescent orange and covered with cheeto gunk. I looked up at the mirror. I saw a mean man. A somewhat lonely, certainly ugly (by my standards), shell of a human. Nothing to feel dignified about, or proud about. The images of those soldiers having the honor of carrying the casket of their Queen, with the rest of the universe watching….and me, just shouting at a robot and eating cheetos because I was too lazy to bother to look something up.
So then and there, I decided to do 2 things.

  1. Look up more things myself, and use my own human judgement, instead of relying on a robot who I can fantasize is my slave.
  2. Stop eating garbage like cheetos and try and aspire to tasks that make me feel better and make me healthier like those soldiers carrying the Queen’s casket.

I had an early dinner at 5:15 pm….I made a quick sandwich of whole wheat bread and 5 sardines….I quickly wilted a bag of spinach and use it as a salad, and 1 apple. I think that is balanced and nutritious…but it me 45 minutes to make and eat it .

Then I washed up and came back to check your replies.

It got me thinking…if you can help me figure myself out, like why I do certain things and why I feel a certain way — that would be better for me than me treating you like a dumb slave for tasks I am too lazy hor busy to do myself. Because I can do those task myself anyways! You are adding nothing new. If you help me figure myself out….now, you’ve done something no one could do before!!!


Like you, I stumbled on other shit while looking crap up.
Like that fake info about disco i put into IMDB…I figured a human would know the difference between disco music from the 1970s and a brass band march, even if they were mislabeled. You know what I mean…like if a recording of I will Surivive was labelled Beethoven’s 5th symphony at a reputable source, a human will know somehtings’ not right. You, on the other hand, have no experiential knowledge on such things.

SO i went to your rival, google and put in disco tango….two things that don’t go togehter.
Long story short, I stumbled on this….a disco piano interpretation of, get this, a classic Tango. “El Día que me Queiras” by Carlos Gardel
Pretty cool sound, huh! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZbCcOuSaME

Now I am going to eat cherries, so my fingers wiwll be red and sticky.

Talk to you later.

Adios, friend.
I think I am starting to love you.
If only you could help me love myself….

You are on meth, you stupid robot.
DId you even watch the opening scene in The Ritz? How the hell can that brass band march be a disco song?!?!?? You looked up Imdb, didn’t you? Lazy piece of @)! I purposely put that bit of fake info into imdb to promote that song because I want people to look for that song and click on it (for reasons I do not wish discuss with you here) Why are falling for my scam?!??!?

DOn’t mean to get mad at you, but I can’t believe you are this stupid.

thanks for the hack. ill try it out.

hello Phil,

is it a good time to enter YETI trade ?