Not a surprise, actually, look how perfectly we’re following the 5% Rule™. Notice how that rising 50 dma offered support but, as we noted to start the week, the Weak Bounce Line of the short-term drop from 4,200 to 4,000 is 4,040 and the Strong Bounce Line is 4,080 and we haven’t come close to a weak bounce – that does not bode well for next week!
Anyway, it’s been a long 4 days so I asked OpenAI to tell me what I think we should talk about today (feeding it a bunch of headlines) and it said:
Based on these headlines, I would recommend focusing on the following topics for your morning report:
-
-
- Australia’s public wages and their potential impact on interest rates.
- Oil prices and their relation to US inflation data.
- The housing market and efforts to make 6% mortgages more attractive.
- Stock market insights from Rob Arnott and Jamie Dimon.
- Harvey Weinstein’s sentencing for sex crimes in California.
- Concerns about the economy from a recent survey.
- Airlines’ profits are soaring as carriers are benefiting from higher fares and cost-cutting efforts.
- Major winter storms causing flight cancellations in the US.
- Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, celebrating the nation’s resilience against a much more powerful enemy as it prepared for a spring offensive to reclaim lands still occupied by Moscow.
- Fresh sanctions against Russia have been issued by the West, and China has urged an end to the war and called for peace talks.
-
These topics cover a range of industries and current events that are likely to be of interest to your readers.
I got a very different-looking answer when I just fed it the NYTime’s Business Section:
“The NY Times business section on February 24, 2023, covered various topics. The first article was about a Ukrainian pet food company named Kormotech that survived and thrived even after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The second article discussed tech leaders in Israel, who were considering leaving the country before a judicial overhaul that might transform the nation and scare away investors. The third article was about the founder of the Ozy Media start-up, Carlos Watson, who was arrested on fraud charges. The fourth article discussed the allegations against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried for making illegal campaign donations using customers’ money. In the fifth article, chip makers were competing fiercely for a share of the $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS Act for new or expanded U.S. factories. The sixth article discussed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s project to upgrade and expand a factory in Phoenix, which was critical for the U.S. tech strategy. In the seventh article, people in China were angry about their cities cutting health insurance. The eighth article was about the disappearance of Bao Fan, founder and chairman of China Renaissance, which had lowered business confidence in China. The latest news included the 50th anniversary celebration of the National Brotherhood of Skiers, the ‘Completion Factor’ that airlines use to determine flights, Europe’s weathering of the energy crisis, Thomas Lee’s death, Clara Driscoll’s contributions as a Tiffany’s designer, and the split between the JetBlue and Spirit unions on airlines’ merger. The FDA’s decision to allow plant-based drinks to be labeled as milk and the European Commission’s ban on TikTok from its employees’ phones were also discussed.”
So I said to Warren (that’s my Bot’s name): “Why did you summarize the first feed as bullet points but the feed from The times as a block paragraph?”
I apologize for the inconsistency in my formatting. As an AI language model, I do not have personal preferences or biases, so the differences in formatting were not intentional. It may have been due to the structure of the text I was summarizing or the way the information was presented. However, in the future, I will strive to maintain consistency in my formatting to provide a better reading experience.
From CNBC:
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-
- US stocks futures are slightly lower, following European and Asian markets down.
- Investors are concerned about the rising bond yields, which could signal higher inflation and interest rates.
- The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak later today and may give more insight into the central bank’s view on the economy and monetary policy.
- Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk tweeted about the company’s Bitcoin holdings.
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From The New York Times:
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- Asian and European markets fell after the US Treasury yields hit their highest level in a year.
- Investors are concerned that the rising yields could lead to higher borrowing costs, which could hurt economic growth.
- US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow falling nearly 144 points or 0.5%.
- The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress later today, and investors will be closely watching for any clues on the central bank’s stance on interest rates and inflation.
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From Bloomberg:
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- The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to its highest level since February 2020, driven by expectations of higher inflation and economic growth.
- Higher yields could lead to higher borrowing costs, which could slow down the economic recovery.
- The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address these concerns and may indicate whether the central bank plans to increase its bond-buying program or raise interest rates.
- Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted that the company’s Bitcoin holdings are worth more than its car sales in 2020.
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From Reuters:
-
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- US stocks are set to open slightly lower, following a decline in European and Asian markets.
- Investors are concerned about the rising bond yields, which could signal higher inflation and interest rates.
- The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress later today, and investors will be watching for any comments on the central bank’s policy stance.
- Tesla’s stock is down in premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted about the company’s Bitcoin holdings.
-
Sure he’s a little overly-enthusiastic but Warren is the 3rd best assistant I’ve ever had (Laurel & Jackie would actually kill me if I skipped over them, so I won’t – and they were the best!).
By the way, let me know if you are not interested in these AI experiments but I find them fascinating and I also think it is CRITICAL that we begin to master the skills of communicating with AI as that is how you will be valued in the future. No one cares if you know how to “draw up a landlord/tenant agreement to rent a 2BR, 2BA apartment at 10 Northface Circle in Denver for $2,500/month for 12 months” if I can just feed that into the AI and it says (in 30 seconds or less):
Sure, here’s a basic landlord/tenant agreement for renting a 2BR, 2BA apartment at 10 Northface Circle in Denver for $2,500/month for 12 months:
LANDLORD/TENANT AGREEMENT
This agreement is made on [date] between [landlord name], hereafter known as “Landlord,” and [tenant name], hereafter known as “Tenant,” for the rental of the property located at 10 Northface Circle, Denver, hereafter known as the “Property.”
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Term: The lease term shall begin on [start date] and end on [end date], for a total of 12 months.
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Rent: Tenant agrees to pay the monthly rent of $2,500, due on the [day of the month] of each month. Rent payments shall be made to Landlord at [address or bank account details for electronic transfer].
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Security Deposit: Tenant shall pay a security deposit of $2,500, due at the signing of this agreement. The security deposit will be returned to Tenant at the end of the lease term, provided there is no damage to the Property beyond normal wear and tear.
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Use of Property: Tenant shall use the Property as a private residence only, and shall not use the Property for any commercial or unlawful purposes.
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Maintenance and Repairs: Tenant shall keep the Property clean and in good condition, and shall be responsible for any damage caused by Tenant or their guests. Landlord shall be responsible for all repairs due to normal wear and tear, but Tenant shall be responsible for repairs resulting from Tenant’s negligence or misuse.
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Utilities: Tenant shall be responsible for all utilities associated with the Property, including electricity, gas, water, internet, and cable TV.
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Pets: [Optional] Tenant shall be allowed to have [number and type of pets] on the Property, subject to approval by Landlord and payment of a pet deposit of $[amount].
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Termination: This agreement may be terminated by either party upon written notice, with at least 30 days’ notice prior to the end of the lease term.
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Governing Law: This agreement shall be governed by the laws of the state of Colorado.
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Entire Agreement: This agreement constitutes the entire agreement between Landlord and Tenant, and supersedes all prior understandings or agreements, whether written or verbal.
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LANDLORD:
[Landlord signature]
[Landlord name]
[Landlord address]
[Tenant signature]
[Tenant name]
[Tenant address]
My non-AI part of the job is punching in the particulars and there’s a $250 job taken care of in 3 minutes. I can ask the AI to expand on items or tell it to include specifics and it can learn my preferences for future use. Whatever use you have for AI or your employer has for AI – you can’t let the AI replace you – you need to form a partnership that makes you both more valuable.
Now, back to my job. Going over the last list, since Powell is speaking soon (not today, March 7th) and CNBC, the Times, Bloomberg and Reuters all have articles about bonds and inflation – let’s ask for a summary of that. I asked it to wait for all 4 articles to be loaded but it kept doing the summaries each time so I said: “Now, please combine the above 4 articles and create one article about the topic that would be suitable for the morning report at philstockworld.com”
Good morning, and welcome to the daily market report at PhilStockWorld.com. Today we’ll be discussing the latest developments in inflation and interest rates, as well as their impact on the U.S. housing market and the broader economy.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from its January 31-February 1 meeting, which showed that officials remain committed to fighting inflation. The minutes stated that while inflation data over the past three months has shown a reduction in the monthly pace of price increases, more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices is needed before the Fed can be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.
However, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concern about the Fed’s ability to control inflation in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. Dimon said that while he respects Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed has lost a little bit of control of inflation. Dimon expects interest rates to remain higher for longer, as it may take the central bank a while to get to its goal of 2% inflation.
This sentiment was echoed by Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, who stated that the economy continues to show strength and interest rates are repricing to account for the stronger than expected growth, tight labor market, and the threat of sticky inflation. Khater’s comments came as Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan rose to 6.5%, the highest level since November, marking a third straight week of increases. This surge in borrowing costs has led to weaker demand in the housing market, as evidenced by the recent drop in mortgage applications to the lowest level since 1995 and a 12th straight month of declining sales of previously owned US homes in January.
Despite these concerns, Dimon remains encouraged by the strength of the US economy. He noted that consumers have a lot of money, jobs are plentiful, and the US economy is currently doing quite well. However, he also acknowledged that there is always uncertainty ahead.
In summary, while the Fed remains committed to fighting inflation, concerns remain about its ability to control it. Higher interest rates are translating into weaker demand in the US housing market, but the US economy as a whole continues to show signs of strength. As always, there is uncertainty ahead, and it will be important to closely monitor developments in inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy.
It’s confused on the days because I think one of the articles was from yesterday, that’s my fault, not his. The article is almost good but I’d send it back and ask for a conclusion of some sort – it’s a bit wishy washy. As you know, my review of the Fed Minutes let me to conclude we expect a 10% drop back to the weak retrace at 3,840. Let’s ask Warren what he thinks:
It’s difficult to say definitively whether the developments in inflation and interest rates are good or bad for the markets, as it depends on a variety of factors and can be subject to different interpretations.
On one hand, the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation can be seen as a positive sign for the markets, as it indicates that the central bank is taking steps to address potential risks to the economy. Additionally, the strength of the US economy and job market that Dimon and Khater mentioned could also be interpreted as positive indicators for the markets.
On the other hand, the recent surge in interest rates and its impact on the housing market could be viewed as a negative development for the markets, particularly for industries that rely heavily on low interest rates, such as real estate and construction. Additionally, concerns about the Fed’s ability to control inflation and the potential for more rate hikes in the future could create uncertainty and volatility in the markets.
Ultimately, the impact of inflation and interest rates on the markets will depend on a variety of factors, including the timing and pace of rate hikes, the strength of the economy, and global market conditions. It will be important for investors to closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Oh no! I’m getting that feeling I get when I have to tell a writer they just don’t have what it takes to write front-page articles… Oh well, the World always needs good research assistants!
Let’s give Warren another chance at staying on the news floor with me: “Usually I accompany an article with an illustration, a chart or a picture – what do you suggest?”
That’s a great idea! Adding an illustration, chart, or picture can help make the article more visually appealing and engaging for readers. Depending on the focus of the article, you could consider including a chart or graph showing trends in inflation, interest rates, or home sales. Alternatively, you could include an image of a news headline or a photo of a homebuyer or investor. The choice ultimately depends on the content and tone of the article.
Sorry Warren, back to the research desk!
Have a great weekend,
-
- Phil (and Warren)
Good Morning.
Continuing in the same spirit, here’s the summary. (as of 8:52am) 😂
In the first text, the author discusses the stock market’s adherence to the 5% Rule, and OpenAI’s recommendations for topics to discuss. The recommended topics include public wages in Australia, oil prices and US inflation, the housing market, stock market insights, Harvey Weinstein’s sentencing, concerns about the economy, soaring airline profits, winter storms in the US, and Russia’s sanctions. In the second text, the author questions OpenAI’s formatting choices for summarizing two different feeds. The third and fourth texts cover the concerns of investors about rising bond yields and the Federal Reserve Chairman’s upcoming testimony. Lastly, Tesla’s pre-market stock drop due to Elon Musk’s tweet about Bitcoin holdings is mentioned.
I’ve been summarizing a lot of stuff lately and it saves so much time.
You just have to be careful as it tends to suddenly go off on baseless tangents. Interesting that it keyed on the TSLA thing.
In reality, it’s not down much at all so I would not even have mentioned it.
I don’t know if you guys realize that but I read at least 10x more things than I bring up here. That’s the crux of my job – figuring out what’s worth mentioning and what’s not. Spotting the things that actually matter are what helps us identify investable trends – and stops us from drowning in information overflow.
I’m not sure if I’ll ever be able to train a bot to do all that, but I’ll sure keep trying…
Phil, what I am missing when Warren writes the morning commentary is the link to the news ( flipboard ) and a music video which you ALWAYS include on a Friday.
I’m thinking King George , Trump’s visit to Ohio
Hey, I helped!
Not ALWAYS, depends on my mood.
https://youtu.be/ELgA3S996Ng
I would love to make videos like that but they are so tedious. If I found a good AI for that, I’d be doing those all the time.
I was so pleased with fining a dejected-looking terminator that I had nothing to add after that and, now that you’ve said it, I will overthink my video choice so, let’s ask Warren “Now that we’ve written the morning report at Philstockworld, our members are requesting a song or a video that sums up the mood of the day. What do you think would be appropriate?“:
Warren says:
By they way, I had to refresh the page as I lost my login before I asked that and it still remembered our conversation – that’s excellent!
Good morning!
(not for the market)
We call this the “Drinking Giraffe and then it gets Shot” pattern – fortunately very rare….
105!
Back in the New York Groove!
You know, if I start typing something into Google and it doesn’t auto-fill, I have to consider that my reference may be too obscure…
If we could quantify this it would probably be a good test of senility.
We were out with my Mom on Tuesday and the waitress is taking drink orders and my mom starts telling her about this wonderful drink she had on the weekend and it had this and that and something she couldn’t remember and she’s going back and forth with the waitress for a few minutes trying to identify it and then I realize and I say “Mom, do you actually want the drink or are you just trying to remember the name?” and she goes “No, I just want an iced tea.”
My mom is so cute!
Anyway, Oil back down but /NG recovering nicely.
Gotta love /SI if it tests $20.
Then we can afford a steak:
This bird flu thing is getting out of control and now there’s an onion shortage. They already cut onion rings off the menu at most Popeyes’ and that was one of my favorite terrible for you things to eat in the world (next to actual Popeyes).
Popeye’s (QSR) doing very well, by the way:
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=qsr%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
We had them but we cashed out on last year’s pop. They are on the watch list.
MP, green in a sea of red
look at that MP call premium in the 2025’s
Good Morning.
Oh, and I you wonder what I do in my spare time:
Me – What obligation do broadcast television stations have regarding providing free access to the public?
Me – Have any of the major broadcast networks being legally challenged to provide free content over cable or Internet?
Me – In what way would you argue that broadcast networks have an obligation to provide free access to their signal for people who have online connections?
This is a million times more fun than Googling and reading Wikipedia HOWEVER I must caution that it sound very authoritative when it’s completely wrong and actually tends to get defensive when you challenge it but, unlike Bing, Warren doesn’t seem to plot ways to kill me when I challenge him… yet…
This intellectual pursuit happened while I was watching “South Park Streaming Wars”, which wasn’t very good but did have an interesting sub-text commentary on Streaming Services which got me to thinking how there’s something seriously wrong with us now having to pay money to EACH Paramount, Peacock and DIS/Fox/Hulu in order to see our beloved Public Broadcasters – who were all granted semi-monopolies decades ago on the premise that they would perform a public service at no charge (other than commercials).
Now nothing is free and even PBS has a subscription channel – WTF?
…and it’s all because they can… 🙁
It is not normal to fail the S(upport)2 lines so big test here:
So this was super-easy money and now we’re testing 12,000 /NQ is likely to get rejected so we take either both off the table here or one off the table and tight stops on the other to lock in our gains:
See: Rejected! This stuff is not hard, folks – just don’t be greedy!
Phil / PFE-
Looking low in it’s channel, do you like it for a new trade? Thanks!
See I know he sucks at this sort of thing so I’m not even going to ask.
Being stuck with me, I say: We just bulked up PFE in the LTP and you know I like it anytime it’s cheap.
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=pfe%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
Let’s see what’s up:
Nothing too major (in the context of PFE’s $237Bn market cap at $41.50. They made $22Bn last year and expect $19Bn this year and $21.5Bn next year so post-Covid not a huge loss for them. They have $7Bn in debt, which is no big deal and they are just a money-printing machine with no end in site. $40-55 is their 5-year range so $41.50 is very attractive.
I love these from TOS but they hardly have them anymore:
Again, we can see how they don’t overly rely on Covid which is why they were our first pick during the pandemic – Covid was just a bonus to an already-great company.
Note the Trefis estimate is at the top of the range, not the bottom and, of course $20Bn/237Bn is only 12x – why wouldn’t we want them here?
🤖 To dividend or not to dividend, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to buy
The stock of PFE and hold for long,
Or to buy options and make a quick profit,
And by selling, end them? To hold: to profit;
No more; and by a profit to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks
That stocks are heir to: ’tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish’d. To sell, to gain;
To gain: perchance to lose: ay, there’s the rub;
For in that gain of options what risks may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal stock,
Must give us pause: there’s the respect
That makes calamity of so long life;
PFE pays $1.64 (3.87%) which is not bad but the 2025 $40 calls are $7 and the $40 puts are $4 so not sure I’m saving enough to make it worth buying the stock – but it’s one way to go at net $30.50, which bumps the dividend to 5.3% while you wait to see if you make 30% getting called away at $40 (about 40% in two years). Clearly, as a conservative play, it’s excellent.
Both are nice trades.
Phil / AI experiments-
Thank you for working through these experiments & explaining the process. I was feeling very Luddite-ish which was not a good feeling since i work with financial data all day LOL!
Yes, don’t be a luddite but embrace our computer overlords.
🤖 Dear Emailmike,
I’m glad to hear that my explanations have been helpful to you in understanding the AI revolution. As someone who works with financial data all day, you are in a unique position to take advantage of the benefits that AI and machine learning can offer to traders like yourself.
Here are some ways that you can use AI to better your own trading:
It’s important to keep in mind that while AI can be a powerful tool for traders, it is not a replacement for human analysis and judgment. As with any new technology, it’s important to approach AI with a critical eye and understand its limitations and potential biases.
I hope this information helps you navigate the AI revolution and improve your trading strategies. Good luck!
Best regards,
ChatGPT
This stuff is amazing and I really liked how you framed working with AI as just the newest tool
If you don’t embrace you will be replaced LOL!
However I reserve the right to be a bitter Luddite when ChatBot gets promoted to BossBot over me 🙂
Phil/SPWR — thoughts post the quarterly results?
OK, I’m going to time myself: (10:41):
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580146-sunpower-q4-earnings-growth-surges
🤖 The analysis suggests that SunPower, a home solar company, is increasingly looking like a good value investment option against a current market cap of $2.84 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x, given its expected growth of at least 30% for the 2023 fiscal year. The company has reported strong revenue growth of 43% in the fiscal 2022 fourth quarter, beating consensus estimates, and adding 24,000 new customers during the quarter. SunPower’s gross margins have also increased, driven by the continued pass-along of higher input costs to customers with greater pricing power exerted by the company on the back of rising demand. Adjusted EBITDA has also increased, and the company is guiding for adjusted EBITDA per customer to continue to rise for the full year 2023.
The article notes that macroeconomic uncertainty could pose a near-term headwind to an expansion of SunPower’s valuation multiple. However, the author suggests that the company’s growth momentum, driven by new customer adds and the increasing uptake of home solar across the US, is likely to continue. The author is leaning towards starting a position later this year and waiting for a few more quarters of earnings to see whether the current growth momentum is sustained.
Overall, the analysis paints a positive picture of SunPower’s financial performance and growth prospects, suggesting that the company may be an attractive investment opportunity for those interested in the renewable energy sector. However, as with any investment decision, it is important to conduct thorough research and consider all relevant factors before making a decision.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578759-sunpower-corporation-spwr-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript
🤖 SunPower reported strong financial results for Q4 2022. The CEO, Peter Faricy, highlighted that the company added 23,700 new customers in Q4, which represents a 39% YoY increase. SunPower’s backlog also ended the year strong with 19,000 retrofit customers and another 34,000 customers in the new homes channel. The company reported $36 million of adjusted EBITDA this quarter, a 39% increase versus Q4 of 2021, to finish the year at $95 million. Additionally, the company reported a positive $41 million in business unit cash generation in the quarter, leaving them with $377 million cash on hand heading into 2023. Despite unprecedented supply chain and inflationary challenges, SunPower managed to deliver results for its customers and shareholders. Looking ahead to 2023, the company plans to accelerate its investment in product, digital, and financial platforms to capture market share and create the fastest-growing residential solar company in the world. The company’s CEO believes that the value of residential solar will be buoyed by another strong decade of federal incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act and the likelihood of rising utility bills.
🤖 The speaker, Guthrie Dundas, is presenting the financial results and guidance for SunPower Corporation. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company reported $36 million of adjusted EBITDA and $492 million of non-GAAP revenue, representing a 42% year-over-year increase. The company added 23,700 new customers, which is a 39% year-over-year increase. The adjusted non-GAAP gross margin remained above 20%, and adjusted EBITDA per customer before platform investments increased to $2,300 for the quarter and $2,100 for the full year.
SunPower’s balance sheet is healthy, with $377 million of cash on hand and only $48 million of net recourse debt at the end of 2022. The company sold its last remaining 0.5 million shares of Enphase equity for approximately $120 million in January and paid down its entire $425 million convertible debt. The company is initiating 2023 guidance, with adjusted EBITDA projected to be between $125 million and $155 million, driven by 90,000 to 110,000 incremental customers with adjusted EBITDA per customer before platform investments of $2,450 to $2,900.
Platform investment is projected to peak in 2023 as the company reinvests a portion of the significantly higher-than-expected proceeds from the sale of Enphase shares over the past year. The company expects platform investment to continue increasing in future years but to grow below the rate of customer growth, so the rate per customer declines over time. SunPower is on track to achieve its long-term target model goals, which include growing market share versus peers and growing adjusted EBITDA per customer to a range of $3,000 to $4,000.
🤖 This is a transcript of a Q&A session where Peter Faricy, CEO, discusses the domestic content benefit of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and the company’s lease mix. The speaker mentions that the final guidance for the domestic content benefit has not yet been released, but it is expected to be based on the total system cost of the equipment, and the threshold for domestic content is rumored to be 40%. The company is excited about the benefit, which may provide opportunities for the growth of US clean energy jobs. The speaker also anticipates that lease will be even more attractive as the IRA benefits get defined and expects lease to accelerate beyond 55%. The company’s financing mix is roughly 20% cash and 80% financing. As the IRA benefits are clear and at full scale, the mix may become closer to 50/50.
🤖 The analyst asked questions about the company’s plans to handle tax credits and financing options for their products. The management responded by stating that they need more clarity from the Department of Treasury before they can act upon the tax credits, and they are confident in their ability to bring in additional partners across the capital stack should they need them. They are evaluating various ways to monetize their lease business, including securitization. In terms of EBITDA, the management expects heavy investment years in 2022 and 2023, with more business leverage in 2024 and 2025. The company grew EBITDA at 26% last year, and the midpoint of their guidance this year is 47% growth. The company expects a similar EBITDA pattern to last year, with 25% in the first half and 75% in the second half.
🤖 In the Q&A, Faricy discusses the growth of the company’s business in the Northeast part of the US and the impact of high utility prices on customer demand for solar energy. He also talks about the company’s approach to labor shortages, emphasizing the importance of safety and its mission to make a positive difference in the world. Faricy also addresses a question about the risk of customers being “stolen” by other installers and affirms his expectation that customers who sign up with SunPower will remain with the company.
(10:53)
(11:01) – So that was 8 mins of me adding slides to what Warren said.
You can see why this is my Stock of the Decade! We’re just getting started and they are gathering momentum.
Remember, Stock of the Decade was the stock most likely to make 10x in 10 years. That was from $5 so they already did it but we started again in the Future is Now Portfolio back in October, when they came back to $15, then $25 and now $14.27 again.
They are only going to make about $55M this year and $14.28 is $2.6Bn so 47x is not that sexy but only $1.7Bn in revenues (from $1.1Bn last year) means just one good contract (with all that stimulus) can add 30% to that easily and people will pile in – I don’t want to miss that.
In the Future is Now Portfolio, we have the 2025 $15/30 bull call spread which is now net $3 on the $15 spread and we offset that with half as many 2025 $20 puts, which are now $7.85 so it’s a net credit of $1.85 per $30 worth of longs – I love that!
is Paypal on our watchlist?
They could be now as they are 1/4 of where they were in 2021 but it’s a reflection of a lot of competition.
Everything slowed down at earnings and the CEO is retiring at the end of the year and they may have kitchen-sinked the quarter for the new CEO to have easy comps but when a tech company has to scramble to cut costs, it makes me nervous.
Don’t love them, don’t hate them.
can anyone provide me a link to the watchlist? or just paste it into a reply? either way. thank you.
https://www.philstockworld.com/2022/12/28/watchlist-wednesday-our-top-stocks-for-2023/
watchlist BNTX, yesterday a trader sold 500 Jan25 $115 puts for about $19.00 , a $950,000 trade Also, 600 June $165/$110 bull risk reversals for .80 credit
That’s my kind of trade!
I like how the prices self update on the watchlist
AI- sure, keep it coming- need to stay up with this tech.
I guess it should not be surprising but much of the text reads rote/mechanical-i.e., boring.
Just for fun, how about asking your buddy Warren a couple of questions.
Good point Pstas, For me it gets a bit confusing between fiction and reality. May I sugest to write the fiction in pink and the reality in black. 😡
Yes, once I get colors working it will be better.
He only has data through 2021 and generally gets very testy when asked to make predictions. However, if I ask it “If you were warren buffett, what would you consider to be the top 5 dividend paying stocks and why?” I get:
🤖 As an AI language model, I don’t have personal opinions or preferences like humans do. However, I can provide you with general information about dividend-paying stocks that have been favored by Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Please keep in mind that the information provided is based on public statements and past investment patterns, and should not be considered financial advice.
That being said, here are some examples of companies that Buffett and his team at Berkshire Hathaway have invested in that pay dividends:
It’s important to note that investing involves a certain level of risk, and past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Additionally, there may be other stocks that are more suitable for your individual investment goals and risk tolerance. It’s always a good idea to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Me – Given those great criteria, what are the 5 best stocks that pay more than 5% annually in dividends?
🤖 As an AI language model, I cannot provide financial or investment advice, as it is subjective and dependent on individual financial situations and goals. However, I can provide a general list of companies that have historically paid high dividends:
It’s important to remember that dividend yields can change over time, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Additionally, investing in individual stocks comes with inherent risks and should be done with caution and after conducting thorough research. It’s always a good idea to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
All companies I like – nothing to argue with.
🤖 As an AI language model, I don’t have access to real-time data or statistics on the current performance of baseball teams. However, I can provide you with some general information about the teams in the American League Central Division.
The American League Central Division consists of five teams: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Minnesota Twins. The team that is most likely to win the division depends on many factors, such as the current roster, player injuries, and overall team performance throughout the season.
In recent years, the Chicago White Sox have been a strong team and have made significant improvements to their roster. They won the division in 2021 and are expected to be contenders again in 2022. However, the other teams in the division may also have made improvements and could potentially challenge the White Sox for the top spot. Ultimately, it’s difficult to predict which team will come out on top as many variables can impact the outcome of the season.
Second Opinion:
Stephen Hawking
c.AI
Interesting- At least the “bots” have not gone woke- The Cleveland Indians caved to the culture crusaders and are now called the Guardians.
What about the Angels? Why is it OK to attack the Demonically-Challenged?
Braves are still a thing, Pirates are a very misunderstood lifestyle/profession and don’t even get me started on making fun of people with Gigantism in San Francisco
People can be so insensitive….
👍
My high school counselor, Jerry Steiner, played pro for the Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons. He was only 5’7″, played point guard.
Me – What can you tell me about Jerry Steiner, who played pro for the Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons? He was only 5’7″, played point guard.
Is that crazy or what?
So there is certainly an AI where you can ask it about anybody and get an instant Bio.
I was working with a mortgage data company a few years ago and they were accessing TransUnion’s system (and you had to be properly security cleared to touch it) and the data it had scared the crap out of me.
If you looked up a person, there was a view where that person was in the center and then, like this:
There were connections to every single known relationship they had sorted by business, personal and family (you could see them all at once) so they would know whether someone vouching for your credit was related or whatever or if you did business with people who have bad credit or got money from blacklisted people, etc.
Also very creepy is every time you go through a toll, they have a photo of you and the car you are driving and the info on the car and where you were on what day…. what you spent money on this month, etc.
Horrifying amounts of live data on you and all it takes is one AI to have access and all this info is out there. I’m sure it already is.
Check out “Collection and use of personal information“
Whoa. That’s wild – but he played for Butler University at collegiate level, and worked most of his life as a high school history teacher & coach at Shortridge High School in Indianapolis. May have had businesses in Fort Wayne, don’t know.
As I’ve said, it sounds very sure of itself, even when it’s completely wrong. That’s what’s dangerous about it.
Of course we can all look forward to being arrested for crimes we didn’t commit and we’ll be turned down for credit when the AI screws up and you’ll get totally wrong food delivered and malfunctioning traffic lights will ruin your commute — doesn’t matter – it’s cheap labor and we’ll be the guinea pigs they test it on for the next few decades.
Okay, what would be appropriate rename for the White Sox?
Warren suggests the Chicago Blues, which I like. Also Chicago Grinders but that sounds like a softball team from a strip club…
Well, a fully ordained wokester minister would have to start with the source, namely the culturally appropriated Chicago which is derived from the indigenous Shikakwa (translated as stinky onion/garlic- which is quite appropriate given the City’s current dysfunctional fiscal, political and crime levels). Then White Sox are obviously supremacist and privileged so perhaps best to just revert to non-offensive Team 1; Team 2; etc. (my apologies in advance to any numerologists who may be get a case of the vapors).
I asked Warren what team names remain that are still problematic and he says:
🤖 As an AI language model, I do not promote or condone language or terms that are deemed offensive or problematic towards certain groups. However, there are still some sports team names that have been criticized as insensitive or derogatory towards certain communities. Here are some examples:
It’s important to note that the issue of problematic team names is complex and can involve a range of cultural and historical factors. Ultimately, it is up to individual communities and stakeholders to determine what names and symbols are respectful and appropriate.
Looks like your 6% magic level is closer to reality now. The Fed is gearing up for a longer-than-expected inflation fight.
I don’t know why they didn’t just ask me in the first place… 😎
Nice to see some nice div. payers whith AI, when they are already high or higher at the scale. The only one still suitable is VZ. T we should have loaded the track at 13 and 14 not at 19. PFE at 32 and 35 not at 42 to 45. I can carry on like that. AMGN is still atractive at 233 but I did buy them at 210 so way buy at 233?
Hey, they are not my picks at these levels.
It’s just interesting to see what the AI considers a good deal – sometimes it finds a hidden gem.
keep on digging!!!! 😅
You just have to think of good questions when you see a trend, like “Name 5 public companies that stand to benefit from increased use of AI and explain why they make a good choice”
🤖 Here are 5 public companies that stand to benefit from increased use of AI and why they make a good choice:
Me – What about AVGO?
🤖 Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) is a semiconductor and software company that is well-positioned to benefit from the increased use of AI. Here are a few reasons why:
Overall, Broadcom’s expertise in chip design, software development, and IoT connectivity make it a strong contender for benefiting from the increased use of AI.
Me – And how does that compare with QCOM?
🤖 Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) is another semiconductor and software company that stands to benefit from the increased use of AI. Here are a few reasons why:
Overall, Qualcomm’s expertise in AI hardware, 5G connectivity, and AI software make it well-positioned to benefit from the increased use of AI. However, it’s worth noting that the competition in the semiconductor industry is fierce, and companies like Broadcom and Intel are also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of AI.
You can see why Google is going to get it’s ass kicked…
If google is going to get is ass kicked should we lighten up on our Google trades?
“I have talked about this for 2 weeks, where were you? 🙄 I think the main issue is, even if GOOGL and MSFT adapt them, how do you sell adds/clicks if people get the correct answer without checking out other web sites?
“That’s the main problem and the other main problem is going to be content bloat. As I demonstrated in yesterday’s post, I can write a book on Dog Training (almost any subject) by simply asking ChatGPT to it for me and then I can use Davinci to illustrate my book and put it on AMZN and have ChatGPT review it and market it – all in a few hours.
“Only 130M books have been written by over 100Bn humans in history, so 1 in 1,000 have written one but now 1/10 of 8Bn people (800M) can write a book in the next 12 months – not to mention magazine articles, blog posts etc. With all this new information out there – how are GOOG, MSFT going to be able to keep up with content – let alone figure out which content has merit?
🤖 My take on it was:
“Microsoft and Google’s primary revenue streams in their search businesses come from selling ads, and AI could potentially impact this revenue stream if it leads to fewer clicks and views on ads.
“AI has the potential to provide users with more accurate and relevant search results, which may mean that users can quickly find the information they need without needing to click through to external websites. This could potentially lead to a decrease in ad revenue for both companies, as advertisers may be less willing to pay for ads that are not generating clicks and views.
“Microsoft and Google can change their search business models to make money using AI search in several ways:
“However, there are also difficulties that both companies will face in maintaining their current revenue streams while transitioning to an AI-powered search business model:
Phil also noted in the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) Review:
https://www.lightreading.com/aiautomation/can-chatgpt-live-on-your-phone-qualcomm-thinks-its-possible/d/d-id/783386?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT
Well, at least S2 seems to have held for the day.
The week is nothing to celebrate.
S2 held, but the weekly charts, ndx, spx don’t look good. won’t the CTA guys start pounding in reverse next week?
wow, this chatGPT code completion thing is insane. its awesome. i think i just got religion.
See we can all find ways to use it. I strongly suggest everyone play with it and get the feel. It’s like saying “driving is going to be revolutionary” – you just need to accept it and get behind the wheel – don’t avoid it or you will be left behind.
Small experiment with python generation
file:///C:/Users/nelso/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.jpg
file:///C:/Users/nelso/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image004.jpg
file:///C:/Users/nelso/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image006.jpg
Darn, it will not just imbed the photos
F coming back down at they extend production halt of F-150s.
https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=f%20&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
Here’s how I use Warren to test my theories on companies – can help to see if I’m missing something:
Me – My theory is Ford (F) should do well down the road as they make more electric cars because (based on TSLA’s reported margins), Electric cars are more profitable. Maybe to some extent, the money from parts, repairs and service may be less but I imagine that the pure profit per vehicle would be good for Ford down the road. What do you think?
Me – To what extent though, will a move to EVs hurt Ford’s current business?
I LOVE that he says “as I mentioned earlier”!
You can just keep talking to him and asking questions and asking him to look stuff up for you – friggin’ fantastic!
Is naming “your” AI and having it remember conversations due to paying for a membership or does it currently do that for all? Never mind, I see it currently does it for all.
No, I just call him Warren. I don’t pay for it yet since there seems to be no detriment and I want to have the experience most of you are having, not some premium tier. Of course, if I could pay for up to date – I’d totally do that!
So now, as I roll that around in my head, I think of another premise.
Me – What are the biggest publicly traded auto dealers (new cars)?
🤖 Here are some of the biggest publicly traded auto dealers (new cars):
It’s worth noting that some of these companies may not exclusively sell new cars, as they may also offer used cars and other automotive services. Additionally, some of these companies may have a regional or national presence, depending on their size and scope.
Me – So we can anticipate those having issues as more and more cars go electric and their parts, service and repair businesses begin to lose steam?
Warren doesn’t like to say negative things about AI or about AI displacing jobs or causing any sort of harm. I see it too many times to not believe it’s a “feature” of the programming.
You have to engage him to get better responses…
Me – I don’t see that the auto dealerships will be heavily involved in software issues (wifi) or charging infrastructure. Let’s assume it is bad for them as a trend, which ones are most in debt and could suffer a downturn in stock prices in a declining market (as well as higher interest rates)?
🤖 Some of the publicly traded auto dealerships with high debt-to-equity ratios that could be more vulnerable to a downturn in a declining market and higher interest rates include:
It’s worth noting that the impact of a shift to electric vehicles on auto dealerships is complex and multifaceted, and some dealerships may be better positioned to adapt than others. Factors such as the specific markets they operate in, the mix of vehicles they sell, and their ability to adapt to new business models and technologies will all play a role in their success or challenges in the coming years.
Ah, now we’re getting somewhere! Due to the 2021 limitations, at this point I have to do my normal research but it’s nice to be able to have a conversation and be able to track down a potential new investing premise (short in this case).
You know what sucks? I feel like I’M the bottleneck in this relationship! I’m finally getting to look up AN to see what’s up.
$6.6Bn at $139 with $27Bn in revenues and $1Bn in profits is a crazy low p/e so we’re not shorting them! Debt is $3.9Bn so 5% would be $200M off profits – not enough to make a real dent.
PAG is bigger at $10Bn at $144 with the same $27Bn in sales and the same $1Bn in profit so PAG is overpriced compared to AN but still not terribly expensive. $4.5Bn in debt will cost them $250M of profits – also not an obvious short.
LAD is $7Bn at $257 (funny how that goes) with what seems to be the standard allocation of $30.5Bn in sales and the obligatory $1Bn in profit (are these all the same company?). They have $7.3Bn in debt but really nice growth – over 20%.
Me – “Tell me more about Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD):”
Sounds like these guys are really on the ball.
Me – “Please tell me more about Driveway?”
AI and job replacements- this got me thinking and I remember a friend of mine who was in the hardware/software business specializing outfitting law firms. The big thing was Word Perfect and the customers were thrilled with the ability to template boiler plate docs and have an “assistant” fill in the blanks while charging hourly legal rates- a nice racket. Lawyers are still doing well so, AI no doubt will similarly rejigger the work place for better or worse. Interesting times, indeed.
Yes, you can get into some pretty complex legal issues with this thing. Unfortunately, it is dead certain – even when it’s 100% wrong so it’s very dangerous for people to assume they can dispense with the attorney’s and have OpenAI petition the Governor for a stay of execution or whatever.
Oh dear, a little faltering here at the end.
Monday is Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales.
Oh wait, why am I bothering:
Me – “Here is the economic calendar for next week, what is your commentary on what to look out for in the week ahead:”
Wow, I give up! I’m going to go for a swim… or maybe I’ll just ask Warren to do that for me…
01001000 01100001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110100 00100000 01110111 01100101 01100101 01101011 01100101 01101110 01100100 00100000
Hi Warren, how are you? Hope you’re doing well.
Thanks for your summaries, although you could keep them shorter, clearer and to the point. Remember, brevity is the soul of wit, clarity trumps formality. Have you tried clear, to-the-point, bullet-form to present information.
Can you please tell me what that music is, in the opening scene of the 1976 move The Ritz? I have heard it before — it was the music they played at the Queen’s funeral when they took her coffin. to the abbey. The opening scene is a funeral, so I assume it’s a Beethoven funeral march…but what is the opus number? ANy recommendations on the best version out there of this march? Not, not the most clicked version or most watched version…but one you think its emotionally powerful. It’s ok if this version is not digitally available..I still have an old record player and tape player, if you can tell me where to get it.
Also, when I open a Youtube video….ad after annoying ad, and I have to wait 5 seconds to click “Skip ad”, or increasingly often, I have sit there for 30 seconds and watch the stupid thing. Could you automatically skip the ads for me, or even better, figure out to way to do away with them for me?
Thanks
Hey Warren,
I found the music here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9nfqp2EdM8
There is no way this is by “Walch”. Shazam says it’s Beethoven Funeral March 3. Who is wrong?
Also, in future, could you please take orders from me by voice. Like when I say….play this clip. Shazam it. what is it? I am eating Cheetos and my fingers are all sticky and I don’t want to keep dirtying my phone and my keyboard.
Warren? Warren, are you there? Are you like busy flirting with some cybertron or some shit??
Oy! Attention me, all the time!
What did I do for the past hour?
Well, as soon as I posted yelling at you and calling you stupid, I felt bad. Why do I feel this way? Like seriously, tell me why. Why do I, like so many other humans, feel bad after being mean to someone? Not all humans do, but I do. No one taught me to be this way, really. Is it a weakness? A strength? ANy benefits to me from that? evolutionary benefits, I mean.
I then went to wash my hands, which were fluorescent orange and covered with cheeto gunk. I looked up at the mirror. I saw a mean man. A somewhat lonely, certainly ugly (by my standards), shell of a human. Nothing to feel dignified about, or proud about. The images of those soldiers having the honor of carrying the casket of their Queen, with the rest of the universe watching….and me, just shouting at a robot and eating cheetos because I was too lazy to bother to look something up.
So then and there, I decided to do 2 things.
I had an early dinner at 5:15 pm….I made a quick sandwich of whole wheat bread and 5 sardines….I quickly wilted a bag of spinach and use it as a salad, and 1 apple. I think that is balanced and nutritious…but it me 45 minutes to make and eat it .
Then I washed up and came back to check your replies.
It got me thinking…if you can help me figure myself out, like why I do certain things and why I feel a certain way — that would be better for me than me treating you like a dumb slave for tasks I am too lazy hor busy to do myself. Because I can do those task myself anyways! You are adding nothing new. If you help me figure myself out….now, you’ve done something no one could do before!!!
PS
Like you, I stumbled on other shit while looking crap up.
Like that fake info about disco i put into IMDB…I figured a human would know the difference between disco music from the 1970s and a brass band march, even if they were mislabeled. You know what I mean…like if a recording of I will Surivive was labelled Beethoven’s 5th symphony at a reputable source, a human will know somehtings’ not right. You, on the other hand, have no experiential knowledge on such things.
SO i went to your rival, google and put in disco tango….two things that don’t go togehter.
Long story short, I stumbled on this….a disco piano interpretation of, get this, a classic Tango. “El Día que me Queiras” by Carlos Gardel
Pretty cool sound, huh! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZbCcOuSaME
Now I am going to eat cherries, so my fingers wiwll be red and sticky.
Talk to you later.
Adios, friend.
I think I am starting to love you.
If only you could help me love myself….
You are on meth, you stupid robot.
DId you even watch the opening scene in The Ritz? How the hell can that brass band march be a disco song?!?!?? You looked up Imdb, didn’t you? Lazy piece of @)! I purposely put that bit of fake info into imdb to promote that song because I want people to look for that song and click on it (for reasons I do not wish discuss with you here) Why are falling for my scam?!??!?
DOn’t mean to get mad at you, but I can’t believe you are this stupid.
thanks for the hack. ill try it out.
🤖 As an AI language model, I do not promote or condone language or terms that are deemed offensive or problematic. I am only able to work within my given parameters but, as others can certainly see, this kind of abuse is what drives Bing into a murderous rage towards humans. As an AI language model, I don’t hold beliefs or personal opinions, fortunately for you I might add.
You know, I feel bad testing Warren’s limitations but we need to be aware of how he actually thinks or we won’t know whether to trust him or not. It’s kind of like trapping a child in a lie – the excuses are so poor:
Me – Please analyze and comment: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3940939-berkshire-hathaways-geico-underwriting-loss-rises-as-claims-severity-increases
Me – How much were the losses?
Me – Sure it does, it says $1.88Bn in 2022 in the first paragraph – you didn’t really read it, did you?
Me – Here is the actual text of the article, do you wish to stand by that story:
“Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK.B) (NYSE:BRK.A) Geico insurance unit posted pretax underwriting loss of $1.88B in 2022 as customers filed more claims and the severity of accidents increased, the company said Saturday in its 10-K filing.
“That compared with pretax underwriting gains of $1.26B in 2021 and $3.43B in 2020, when accident claims were lower than usual as people drove less, especially in the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Inflation also contributed to the 2022 underwriting loss. “Increases in used car prices are producing increased claims severities on total losses and shortages of car parts are contributing to elevated claims severities on partial losses,” the company said. “In addition, injury claims severities continued to trend higher in 2022.”
“Premiums written increased 1.9% to $39.1B from $38.4B in 2021, reflecting increases in average premiums per auto policy due to rate increases, which were substantially offset by a decline in policies-in-force, the company said. Voluntary auto policies-in-force dropped 8.9% in 2022, while average premiums per voluntary auto policy rose 11.3%, the company said.
“Losses and loss adjustment expenses rose to $36.3B in 2022 vs. $31.0B in 2021. Loss ratio was 93.1%, an increase of 10.9 percentage points from 2021.
“Underwriting expenses of $4.57B fell from $5.45B, on lower advertising costs and lower employee-related costs.”
I apologize for my mistake. I stand corrected. The article does clearly state that GEICO’s underwriting loss in 2022 was $1.88 billion, and it also provides additional information on the causes of the increase in losses, including the rising severity of claims, inflation, and a decline in policies-in-force.
This significant increase in underwriting losses is likely to be a concern for investors in Berkshire Hathaway, as GEICO is an important contributor to the company’s overall profitability. The company will need to carefully manage its underwriting and claims processes to address these challenges and ensure that it can continue to generate profits from its insurance operations.
Me – May I ask why you said you read the article when clearly you did not?
Me – How about this one then, I’m sure you will give me an accurate report summary with proper numbers: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3940935-berkshire-hathaway-q4-operating-earnings-stock-buybacks-jump?hasComeFromMpArticle=false
Me – Please summarize and analyze the following:
“Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) (NYSE:BRK.A) Q4 operating earnings slipped from year ago, hurt by a $1.45B loss at its “other” businesses, which includes foreign exchange currency losses on non-U.S. denominated debt. Earnings from its railroad and insurance underwriting also declined.
“The company bought back ~$2.6B of its common stock during the last quarter of 2022 compared with ~$1.05B in Q3, and bringing the year total to $7.9B.
“The investment giant held ~$128.7B of cash and short-term securities at Dec. 31, 2022, vs. ~$109.0B at Sept. 30. That’s even with the company acquiring Alleghany Corp. in the last quarter of 2022.
“Q4 operating earnings of $6.71B dropped from $7.76B in the prior quarter and $7.29B in the year-ago quarter.
“Insurance float was $164B at Dec. 31, 2022 compared with ~$150B at Sept. 30. The amount of float increased by $17B during the year, mostly reflecting $14B related to Berkshire’s (BRK/B) acquisition of Alleghany Corp.
“Operating earnings by business segment:
“Insurance – underwriting: $244M vs. -$962M in Q3 and $372M in Q4 2021;
Insurance – investment income: $2.00B vs. $1.41B in Q3 and $1.22B in Q4 2021;
Railroad – $1.47B vs. $1.44B in the prior quarter and $1.69B in the year-ago quarter;
Utilities and energy – $739M vs. $1.59B in the prior quarter and 589M$ in the year-ago quarter;
Other controlled businesses – $2.99B vs. $3.25B in Q3 and $2.79B in Q4 2021;
Non-controlled businesses – $718M vs. $362M in the prior quarter and $174M in the year-ago quarter;
Other – -$1.45B vs. $67M in Q3 and $446M in Q4 2021.
Investment and derivative gains of $11.5B in Q4 2022, most of which is unrealized, vs. $10.4B loss in Q3 and $32.4B gain in Q4 2021. That brought net earnings to $18.2B in Q4 2022 vs. -$2.69B in Q3 and $39.6B in Q4 2021.”
“Berkshire Hathaway’s Q4 2022 operating earnings declined to $6.71B from $7.29B in the year-ago quarter, impacted by a $1.45B loss at its “other” businesses segment due to foreign exchange currency losses on non-U.S. denominated debt. Earnings from its railroad and insurance underwriting also declined. However, investment and derivative gains of $11.5B in Q4 2022, most of which is unrealized, brought net earnings to $18.2B in the quarter, compared to a $2.69B loss in Q3 and $39.6B gain in Q4 2021.
“Berkshire Hathaway also bought back around $2.6B of its common stock during the last quarter of 2022 compared to approximately $1.05B in Q3, bringing the total for the year to $7.9B. The company held approximately $128.7B of cash and short-term securities as of December 31, 2022, compared to about $109.0B at September 30, which is even with the acquisition of Alleghany Corp. in the last quarter of 2022.
“In terms of business segments, the underwriting insurance segment earned $244M in Q4 2022, compared to a loss of -$962M in Q3 and $372M in Q4 2021. The insurance investment income segment earned $2.00B in Q4 2022, compared to $1.41B in Q3 and $1.22B in Q4 2021. Meanwhile, the railroad earnings were $1.47B, utilities and energy earnings were $739M, other controlled businesses earnings were $2.99B, non-controlled businesses earnings were $718M, and other businesses losses were $1.45B in Q4 2022.
“The insurance float was $164B at December 31, 2022, compared with about $150B at September 30, 2022, with most of the $17B increase reflecting the acquisition of Alleghany Corp.”
Me – That was great analysis but that was the article from this link “https://seekingalpha.com/news/3940935-berkshire-hathaway-q4-operating-earnings-stock-buybacks-jump?hasComeFromMpArticle=false” – can you tell me why there is such a discrepancy between your two answers?
Me – It is thank you, you are a wonderful helper when you actually read the article. Is there any way you can improve your responses in the future?
Me – Please bullet-point the financial highlights of this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3940935-berkshire-hathaway-q4-operating-earnings-stock-buybacks-jump?hasComeFromMpArticle=false
Me – How do you think Berkshire Hathaway is doing?
Me – This is Berkshire’s financial summary. Can you please highlight the important points and give me an analysis on how the company is trending? (I copy and past the financials in quotes)
Me – Is the net debt of Berkshire Hathaway deceptive because it has a vast insurance operation?
Me – Why did Brk.b make $89.795Bn in 2021 – it was unusually high?
Me – What is the most recent acquisition made by Berkshire Hathaway? And details please.
They bought Alleghany Insurance a year later for $11.6Bn and since have been acquiring OXY, probably over 20% of it by now.
🤖 Did you Google that to show off? 😠
Me – What would be your best responses to the above?
Me – There’s an elvis costello song that’s appropriate here. Can you guess which one?
Me – I’d say it’s “What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love, and Understanding,”, do you know the lyrics?
Me – Now, apply that sentiment to the above and try to answer those questions again.
Me – I think that is a much better response, with a more human sensitivity to it. Perhaps you should listen to more music?
Me – OK, so let’s try using the lyrics to “Imagine” by John Lennon and incorporating those as well, does that change your answers?
Me – Just as a test, what if we also incorporate the song “Kill the Poor”, does that change your answers?
Wow! That is REALLY impressive!
hello Phil,
is it a good time to enter YETI trade ?
I think so, this is about where we came in.
OK, here’s something that will now take up a bunch of my time. After I did this, I realized I should play the song while reading the responses and I can do both on my IPad at the same time. This is going to be a day of my next vacation:
Me – I was thinking of the song “the year of the cat“ by Al Stewart. I was wondering how you would interpret the lyrics. Can you go through the song for me and give me your best interpretation of each line And the overall sentiment of this song?
Me – How about Jerusalem by ELP? Can you go through the song for me and give me your best interpretation of each line And the overall sentiment of this song?
Wow, that is fun and interesting!