1,356 days to go.
Come on guys, we can make it! Remember our $700/Month Portfolio (I’m going to review it tomorrow)? That was supposed to be a 30-year project but we started on Aug 25th, 2002 and it’s already been 982 days and we’ve survived Trump (so far) and we’re still up over 90% in less than 3 years! And we survived Biden too and he was, apparently, the WORST and we were up over 100% in January but Trump fixed that and now we’re up less – MAGA!!!
Anyway, the point is you can endure anything – even really, really TERRIBLE economic policies – even really, really CORRUPT politicians – even really, really DANGEROUS trade wars that threaten to plunge the Golbal economy into the second Great Depression (MAGDA!).
Just this weekend, President Trump decided to “protect” America’s biggest export, which is MOVIES ($22.6Bn) and Trump is “protecting us” with a 100% Tariff on Foreign Films, which generate roughly $36 in the US and all this tariff is going to do is CAUSE Reciprocal Tariffs on US Films – which had never been under consideration until Trump brought it up – what a maroon!
At some point you need to realize that these tariffs have NOTHING to do with HELPING America and are aimed only at sewing chaos and destroying our position in the World. Film exports are our greatest SURPLUS in trade – around a 10 to 1 ADVANTAGE to America and that’s not counting our television – DIS, MAX, Prime, Netflix, Paramount, Peacock, Apple TV, Starz… who sell more subscription Worldwide than they do in the US:
What possible benefit could there be to starting a trade war in our Entertainment Industry (one of the US’s largest industries) other than to disrupt and weaken our Entertainment Industry? When are people going to wake up and see that these policies are aimed at DESTROYING America – not at making anything “great” again (and does anyone know what that is actually supposed to mean?). Really – in 10 years has anyone actually defined what MAGA actually means?
Netflix Aug $750 puts are $5 with NFLX at $1,156 and, as you can see, 3/4 of their revenues come from overseas so I think those shorts are a fun way to play Trump’s newest tariff as any sign of reciprocity from the rest of the World can send that stock tumbling lower.
Speaking of Global Market Manipulation – OPEC+ agreed to accelerate Oil production increases for June, fueling concerns of oversupply, sending our /CLU25 long contracts back to $55 at the open but now back to $56.50 while front-month /CL contracts (May) are $57.38 and Brent (/BZ) is $60.50. OPEC is hiking output by 411,000 barrels per day in June but the real news is ALL voluntary output cuts expire in October and, while that sounds as crazy as Trump’s policies – the idea is to make it less comfortable for US companies to invest (if oil is going to be cheaper) and also is likely setting OPEC up for a restructuring of a new round of production cuts in the fall.
As our President likes to say: “Inflict terrible short-term pain on your own people while claiming it will all work out in the end despite having no coherent plan.” Lesson learned Mr. President!
Meanwhile, it’s all about the Fed this week – even though the Fed will do nothing at all and we all know it but they MIGHT SAY SOMETHING that can be interpreted as good or bad even though it has ALWAYS been pure folly trying to predict Fed policy by the 8-12 words that they change in their May statement – but it keeps us analysts employed so – GAME ON!
Also on the Calendar this week are LOTS of Bond and Note Auctions and this morning we have PMI & ISM, tomorrow it’s Trade Goods, Wednesday is the Fed and Consumer Credit, Thursday is Productivity and Wholesale Inventories and Friday we have 4 Fed speakers to spin things – just in case the markets are back on the toilet by then:
And, of course, there are PLENTY of earnings reports to amuse us along the way including PLTR, TSN, VRTX and F today, AMD, ANET, MAR & ADM tomorrow, UBER, DIS, NVO, ARM, GOLD & CLF Wednesday, SHOP, COP, BUD, CROX and COIN on Thursday with ENB and GOGO wrapping it up on Friday – busy, busy…
I expect a few trade deals to be announced this week to bolster the markets and, if we don’t get them – we may be looking to move back to more CASH!!! as things are getting precarious but, for now, thank God for hedges, which we increased on Friday to lock in last week’s gains because – if there’s one thing we know to expect in this market – it’s CHAOS!!!
