Preparing for New Portfolios (5/28/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Webinar Opening and Market Overview
0:38 – Today's Topic: Building a New Portfolio
1:00 – Using Finviz in Dark Mode for Advanced Charts
1:50 – Daily Market Performance and May Summary
2:34 – 2025 Market Performance Recap and Missed Recovery
3:28 – May 15th Portfolio Cash Out Discussion
4:23 – Timing the Market Exit After Tariff-Induced Drop
6:14 – Critique of Market Rationality Post-Tariff Delay
7:03 – Metaphor: Trump as Unpredictable Market Risk
8:04 – Recap of Market Runs and Overvaluation
9:00 – Investors' Selective Memory of Market Crashes
11:50 – Deregulation and Rising Risk of Another Crash
12:52 – Comparing Tech and AI Bubbles to Past Bubbles
13:58 – Rise of Gig Economy and App-Based Labor Models
16:25 – Rationale for Going to Cash and Waiting Until July
17:28 – Trump’s Tariff Delay and Budget Manipulation
18:53 – Debt Clock Manipulation and Fantasy Revenue
20:12 – Rising Debt and Interest Costs
21:08 – Recap: Why We Cashed Out in Mid-May
22:29 – Second Chance to Exit and Cash Out Again
23:06 – Hedging Strategy and Market Levels
24:00 – Market PE Ratios vs. Treasury Yields
26:22 – Investing Comparison: 10-Year Yield vs. PE Returns
28:04 – Value Investing vs. Index Investing
30:04 – Dividends and Options vs. Passive Investing
31:06 – AT&T as a Safe Value Stock Example
35:10 – Covered Call and Put Strategy on AT&T
42:07 – Cash-Backed Basis Reduction Example with Options
44:00 – Conservative Strategy: Be the House, Not the Gambler
45:46 – Why Pfizer Is a Safer Pharma Play
49:00 – Pfizer Valuation, Options Strategy, Pipeline Strategy
54:48 – More Safe Value Stocks Coming, No Rush
55:41 – Market Concerns Going into the Fed Meeting
57:03 – Market Unrealism and Top 10 Threats
59:06 – Housing Market Freeze and Mortgage Trap
1:01:05 – Fiscal Crisis and Government Policy Mistakes
1:03:01 – Global Risk Round-Up and AI Bubble Debate
1:05:06 – Credit Stress and Fed Liquidity Maneuvers
1:07:03 – Fed Minutes: Shift from March to May
1:10:20 – Fed Outlook: Stagflation as Base Case
1:14:32 – Resilient Economy But Rising Inflation Risks
1:16:58 – Strategic Outlook: Stay in Cash for Now
1:18:02 – Dollar Weakness Driving Market Illusion
1:19:46 – Dollar Index Support Levels and Macro Outlook
1:22:00 – PE Ratios and Return Calculations
1:23:00 – Learning to Invest
Webinar Summary
Phil opens by noting the markets are flat and unexciting, then dives into a wide-ranging discussion about why he recently recommended cashing out of portfolios.
