Posts Tagged ‘charts’

THE HALLOWEEN INDICATOR

THE HALLOWEEN INDICATOR

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The following is courtesy of Chart of the day.  This is the beginning of a very strong seasonal period:

The stock market is now entering what has historically been the strongest half of the year. Today’s chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. While there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn’t produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling.

Notes:
- Where’s the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.


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Gold Mania

Gold Mania

Courtesy of Allan

This gold mania reminds me of the tech mania of the late 1990′s that culminated in the great tech bubble top of 2000.  As you may recall, that ended very badly.  This time around, there are our trend models, so let’s have a look at GLD:

GLD Hourly Trend Model
 
GLD Daily Trend Model
 
It’s the Daily Model that is the key here.  Sitting right on the trend line, either it finds support or knives through for a SELL Signal. The hourly model above is suggesting the latter.
 
GLL is the double short ETF for gold and as shown on the chart below, has just reversed LONG:
 
GLL Daily Trend Model
 
 
Bottom line, there are reasons to be cautious on gold right now, but unless and until the Daily GLD Model reverses SHORT, the intermediate uptrend is still intact. 
 
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For more details, read this introductory article.


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Something wicked this way comes

Something wicked this way comes

Courtesy of Allan

I just have to post this chart.  The market last topped in October, 2007.  But look here, the financials as represented by XLF, peaked in February, 2007:

XLF weekly trend model
XLF Weekly Trend Model
 
This year,  XLF reversed SHORT in May and remains SHORT, although a little underwater as of today. But as shown on the above chart, the SHORT signal of early 2007 was also underwater for several weeks before the XLF came crashing down with a 71% decline.

Another omen that something wicked this way comes. 

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For more details, read this introductory article.

*******

If signing up for Randy’s free webinar on options strategies (from Schwab), they require responses of $250K or more assets to invest and 36 or more trades per year.  


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The Good, The Bad & The Ugly….U.S. Dollar

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly….U.S. Dollar

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

I have received numerous emails recently, asking questions along this line….We have done very well of late, what could change the recent upward price action/trend?   (Good, Bad & the Ugly soundtrack)

A good friend often reminds me a “blizzard starts with a single snowflake that fits on the end of your finger!”  Right now positive snowflakes are all over the place…trends are moving higher and breakouts are taking place in key stock index’s!

The key to whether the quality upside move of late will continue, will most likely be determined by what  the U.S. Dollar does at line (1).

Will the rising support line hold or not?  This support line DOES NOT justify selling International positions (EEM, EWZ, TUR, GXG, THD) or Commodity positions (SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SLV,OIH), yet it should raise awareness that stops should be in place to protect quality gains in every holding you have!!! 


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Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we entering a “Danger Zone” right now?

The phrase “Highway to the Danger Zone“  (theme song here) became popular due to the movie “Top Gun,” starring Tom Cruise. 

I share information with several types of investors…long-term (retirement/401k plans) that don’t move monies often, (which “harvested” at the April highs).  Medium term investors, that feel comfortable moving monies once a month/6 weeks and shorter-term investors that are open to adjustments frequently, yet are NOT day traders. I am not interested in day trading!!!

This post would be for the shorter-term audience, that are aggressive and open to “attempting to score on defense!”

The NDX 100 is at the top of its trading range and the VXN has created a falling wedge.  During this trading channel,  when the NDX is at the top of the range, wedges have formed, followed by lower prices in the NDX. 

For any medium-term investors that are long the NDX, stay long and keep the 3% stop in play!   For those aggressive short-term investors that are comfortable attempting to score on defense, take the inverse position here (Buy PSQ).  Momentum and trends remain a positive so far. This is totally a “Power of the Pattern” play for short-term investors. 

If this pattern really forces the NDX lower and changes it momentum, I will follow-up with more suggestions per scoring on defense. 


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The Trends Are Extended, Start Thinking Consolidation and Reversals, But Wait For It

The Trends Are Extended, Start Thinking Consolidation and Reversals, But Wait For It

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The trends are extended on quite a few charts. The action in the US markets is being artificially inflated and supported by monetization and liquidity so it *could* continue on for some time, even until the November election. It is being fueled by the expectation of a large quantitative easing by the Fed shortly thereafter. That QE, when it arrives, is likely to be sold if it is not significant enough to meet expectations.

I am more cautious on short term positions here, and have had some short hedges on in the overnight, but deftly. It is important not to exhaust yourself expecting a trend change before it is ready to happen, and one cannot anticipate exogenous events by definition. Still, the time is ripe for one to have a significant effect should it occur. 

The long term trends are all intact, but we have reached a position where we might be looking for intermediate tops and consolidations.  The Fed is not infallible or omnipotent, but rather determined and capable within its limits.  The combination of government and the monied interests is powerful and ruthless.  Manage your money tightly and wait for the market to reveal its intentions if you are trading.

 

 

 

 


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Divergences

Divergences

Courtesy of Allan

I want everyone to be aware of a developing divergence in the market.  Attached is a chart of the SPX with our Trend Model, Fibonacci levels and at the bottom of the chart, the Elliott Oscillator.  The Elliott Oscillator measures momentum and its most potent use is to identify divergences between prices and momentum.
 
On the attached SPX chart I’ve labeled three areas of divergences between SPX prices and the Elliott Oscillator, i.e. new highs or lows in the SPX that are unaccompanied by new highs or new lows in the Elliott Oscillator.  In each case the market reversed within days of the divergence.  (Although the chart is only showing divergences from the past six months, this particular pattern goes back at least to 1995 when I first became aware of this indicator.) Let’s take a closer look:
 
(1) The first divergence on the chart occurred in late April and within days the SPX topped and fell from a high of 1212 to a low in early July of 1027.
 
(2) The second divergence occurred at that early July low at 1027. The market bottomed within days and has now risen to 1160.  
 
(3) The third divergence is occurring now. 
 
This is no guarantee of an imminent top as divergences are not an exact science and as you can see from the previous two divergences, it sometimes takes days for the market to reverse. But I look at a lot of indicators and patterns and because this one has been so reliable in the past, I wanted to pass it along.

We are still trend followers, but it doesn’t hurt to look at what could be coming down the road and cause our models to reverse.  We have been waiting a long time for a tradable SELL Signal and have endured a few false alarms, but this is one more sign that a change in direction is lurking in the shadows.

 

 

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


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Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Chris, on being neitherish, i.e., how he views the markets. – Ilene 

Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Courtesy of Chris Kimble 

Am I Bullish, Bearish or Neither?

Choice “C”…Niether!

I am of the opinion, being Bullish or Bearish are emotional states of mind.  They are NOT STRATEGIES.  I believe that we should invest in each asset on its own individual merits/patterns, not based upon some global macro prediction.

Did I suggest to buy the 500 index (see post) and become “BULLISH” on 8/29 because the economy was fine? NO!  Bought the 500 Index due to these conditions…Bottom of channel support and a falling wedge and by the way, the fewest investors bullish since the March 2009 low.  NOTHING MORE!

Did I harvest the S&P 500 position and become “BEARISH” yesterday (see post) , after an 8% gain in three weeks, because something is bad about the economy? NO!  Harvested due to Fibonacci resistance at the top of a trading range. NOTHING MORE! 

Did I buy Silver a month ago (see post) because something is wrong with the dollar or that inflation is going to go wild or….NOPE!  I bought Silver on an upside breakout from a favorable pattern,  an ascending triangle . NOTHING MORE!

Why own Emerging Markets or Brazil right now?  Falling channel breakouts!  (See Post)  NOTHING MORE! 

Why own High Yield mutual funds?  A breakout of a flag pattern and above moving averages (see post) . NOTHING MORE!

Why BUY HOME BUILDERS XHB  (see post) when so many people are BEARISH on this industry?  Because of rising channel support plus a sizeable falling wedge after a 30% decline. NOTHING MORE!   (Current gain of over 12%!)

Will we buy the 500 index and other global markets  (see post)  on an upside break of these long-term falling channels? YES!!!

My goal is to try to provide solutions,  that will help investors “inflate portfolios, regardless of market direction by way of the Power of the Pattern!”    I will leave the Bullish or Bearish elements of this business to people much smarter than myself.

Chris


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J&J Needs To Fix It’s Problems Fast

J&J Needs To Fix It’s Problems Fast

Courtesy of YCharts

The announced departure of a top Johnson & Johnson executive last week, Colleen Goggins, who oversaw consumer products, could signal that J&J is moving to put its regulatory problems behind it. That would be welcome news for investors who admire J&J’s business but have been troubled by a recent series of lapses.

J&J has suffered product recalls affecting three of its businesses – over-the-counter medicines, including those sold for children; contact lenses; and hip replacement implants. J&J is accustomed to appearing in Fortune magazine as one of the most admired corporations (#4 this year), but finds itself in the September 6 issue of Fortune as the subject of an investigative story about deterioration of its quality-control operation.

That followed months of coverage of the product problems and recalls in the New York Times and other papers.

So far, despite the problems J&J shares have been moving with other pharmaceutical stocks.

JNJ, PFE, MRK, ABT, LLY Chart

And the worst of the immediate financial impact seems to be the loss of about $600 million in sales after J&J was forced to temporarily shut down an over-the-counter drug manufacturing plant at Fort Washington, Pa. That’s only 1% of J&J’s annual revenue of roughly $60 billion.

JNJ Stock Chart

The recalled over-the-counter products include forms of Motrin, Tylenol, Benadryl, Rolaids and St. Joseph Aspirin, all brands that have commanded a premium price and helped provide to J&J’s consumer business a lush profit margin (operating profits of about 17% of sales vs. about 31% for the pharma and device lines). Here are margins overall for J&J:

JNJ Stock Chart

The impact from the contact lens and hip implant recalls is less clear; in coming years J&J could end up paying for thousands of patients to have new implants installed. But the bigger threat is that J&J ceases to receive the benefit of the doubt from consumers; why buy St. Joseph Aspirin or Tylenol instead of generic brands if the J&J reputation is tarnished? And, just as importantly, will it lose the trust of regulators?

The Food and Drug Administration not only regulates the Fort Washington plant, but also oversees J&J’s efforts to license new drugs and sell medical devices. It’s not a good idea to embarrass an agency that holds that much sway over your business.

J&J is unusual…
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Major Indexes Up Against the Wall

Major Indexes Up Against the Wall: (SPY, DIA,IWM)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall Street Sector Selector 

Get a Free Trial and Free Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Still locked in their long standing trading range, major indexes are now again (still) up against significant resistance levels, and of course, this situation will be resolved in one direction or other, as it always is.

This week’s technical developments favored the bearish side while the fundamental news was decidedly mixed with the macro picture and earnings blinking both positive and negative signs.

We have lots of news coming this week and so quite likely could see a resolution of this stalemate in the very near future.

Looking at My Screens

As always, the charts tell the story:

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

In the S&P 500 chart above, we can see the similarities among what has become a triple top formation with the first one in June, the second in August and now the third in September. 

The first two were followed by significant declines to 1010 in June and 1040 in July.  The index will find significant support at the 200 Day Moving Average at 1116 and the 50 Day Moving Average at 1093 and breaks below these points would likely yield a drop to significant support at 1040 and then 1010.…
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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Earnings Season Looks Good So Far

 

Momentum Monday – Earnings Season Looks Good So Far

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

(originally published yesterday)

Happy Monday.

I will get right to it this week with our Momentum Monday video session. A bunch of new ideas were discussed and we kept it short. You can watch/listen right here on YouTube and I have embedded it on the blog below:

Here are Ivanhoff’s notes…

The latest earnings season has just begun. So far, it is passing with flying colors. Most financials rallied in the two weeks preceding their ea...



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Zero Hedge

Notorious Haitian Gang Demands $17 Million Ransom For Kidnapped Missionaries

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A local gang that days ago kidnapped a group of 17 American and Canadian missionaries in Haiti, among them children, is demanding a $17 million ransom to obtain their release, or $1 million for each person.

Since the Saturday kidnapping which drove world headlines, the group has been identified as the powerful and noto...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Chooses Coinbase As "Custody Partner" For Digital Wallet Ahead Of Stablecoin Launch


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With crypto markets in the green and equities still riding high on their latest comeback rally, Coinbase has just dropped a bombshell update about Facebook's great attempt to seize control of the global monetary supply (or at least a slice of it) thanks to its nearly 3 billion monthly users who would have immediate access to whatever monetization options they...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.