Watch List and New Portfolios (6/4/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Watch List
2:00 – Trump’s Impact on Investing Decisions
5:04 – Musk vs. Trump and Tesla Concerns
6:00 – Macro Policy Shifts and AI Misunderstanding of New Risks
7:50 – Market Levels and the 5% Rule Framework
12:23 – February Watch List Review
15:26 – Market Range Consistency from February to Present
17:46 – Portfolio Management and Cashing Out
20:50 – The Roulette Analogy for Risk Management
25:00 – Portfolio Growth: $4M to $6M and Hedging Strategy
28:00 – Post-Rally Market Outlook and Reduced Hedge Expectations
29:00 – The Rise of AI and McDonald’s Automation Example
34:43 – Broader Business Disruption from AI and Automation
36:35 – Historical Labor Shifts and Today’s Employment Ratio
39:46 – The High Cost of Raising Children and Impact on Retirement
43:47 – Post-College Support and Housing Costs
45:10 – Robot Economics and the Employer Incentive to Replace Humans
49:05 – Redistribution of Wealth in a Robotic Economy
52:14 – Universal Basic Income and Societal Shift
54:10 – Impact on Local Economies and Wealth Flow Away from Communities
56:03 – Macro Threat of Mass Unemployment Without Redistribution
57:15 – Ford's Realization on Worker Wages and Consumer Demand
58:55 – Recap of Key Economic Threats
1:00:08 – US Debt Growth vs. GDP Growth and Trickledown Critique
1:01:13 – The Illusion of Wealth and Excess Accumulation
1:04:07 – Taxation of Excessive Wealth and Corporate Tax Avoidance
1:05:31 – AI Replacing 100M Jobs in 20 Years
1:06:45 – Justification for Mass Robotics Adoption
1:08:04 – Why the AI Bubble Isn’t Likely to Burst
1:08:57 – Credit Market Stress and Sector Outlook
1:09:39 – Long-Term Portfolio: Adding Pinterest
1:10:08 – Updated Watch List Commentary Begins
1:13:04 – Summary Format Introduced with Catalyst Tags
1:17:12 – Watch List Review Wraps Up
1:17:31 – Robot Investment Write-offs and Tax Depreciation
1:17:59 – Beige Book Economic Deterioration Analysis Begins
1:43:16 – Deep Dive into Rare Earth Dependency and China’s Leverage
1:57:52 – Final Macro View Summary: Risks, Trump, Rare Earths, and Planning
Webinar Summary
Phil begins by laying out his philosophy on watch lists.
