Taco, taco Man!
Well the markets were right – Trump has once again kicked the can down the road as his “line in the sand” moved from Feb 4th to March 4th to April 2nd, 5th and 9th – which were suspended 90 days until July 9th and now (drumroll please), letters to trading partners will go out July 7th/8th – warning that tariffs will revert to April 2nd levels (10–50%, or higher for some) on August 1st if deals are not reached.
Are we clear on that then?
Who can take this guy seriously? I don’t recall the section of “The Art of the Deal” where it says: “Always move the goalposts until your opponent gives up and your own side forgets what the original goal even was.” Perhaps that was one of the lost chapters, right after “Never let a deadline go to waste.”
And yet, here we are – another Monday and another miraculous market save as the tariff apocalypse is postponed just in time for the week’s opening bell. If you’re having trouble keeping up with the ever-shifting “red lines,” you’re not alone. At this point, the only thing more flexible than the tariff schedule is the actual definition of “Final Deadline.”
Let’s recap the new rules of the game:
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Deadlines are suggestions, not commitments.
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Tariffs are both on and off, depending on the day – and the Dow.
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Every extension is a “victory,” even if nothing is actually resolved.
- The Administration is always “in talks” and they are always “going well.”
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It is like we are living in Orwell’s 1984, getting our news from the Ministry of Truth! And the result? Markets get another sugar rush, traders breathe a sigh of relief, and the cycle of manufactured crisis and last-minute reprieve continues. It’s like watching a never-ending episode of “Deal or No Deal,” except the briefcases are full of tariff waivers and the banker is tweeting from the Oval Office.
So, what’s next? Letters go out this week, threats are made, and the World waits for the next “final” deadline – August 1st, for now. It has always been August 1st. August 1st is a month away, the deadline has always been a month from now. President Trump is a brilliant negotiator. Over 200 countries are begging to sign the agreement… Seriously though, will it stick? There’s always another extension, another negotiation, another way to keep the uncertainty alive just long enough to keep the markets guessing – in this case after Earnings Season begins (again) – so companies won’t have to mention tariffs in their Q3 outlook.
Don’t hate the player, hate the game and enjoy the game if it’s making you money! So, for now, enjoy your tacos, enjoy the rally and remember: in this market, the only thing you can count on is that the can will keep getting kicked, and the music will keep playing – at least until the Bond Vigilantes kick down the door and declare this party to be over.
Speaking of exploding cans, Trump is set to meet with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump wants his Peace Prize so let’s consider his game plan for making himself a legacy (by Boaty):
🚢 Trump’s Path to a Nobel Peace Prize: Gaming the Odds
With Trump angling for a Nobel Peace Prize and a high-profile meeting with Netanyahu on the horizon, here’s how he might try to game the process—and what the Nobel Committee actually looks for.
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“The most or best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” (Alfred Nobel’s will, codified in Nobel statutes) 12.
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Sustained, nonviolent contribution to peace: The committee values practical, lasting achievements over one-off deals 3.
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: Recent prizes have gone to those addressing urgent global challenges—nuclear disarmament, human rights, and civil society activism 4.
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: Anyone nominated by a qualified individual (e.g., parliamentarians, professors, former laureates) is considered. Self-nomination is not allowed 567.
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1.
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: If Trump can push Israel and the Palestinians toward a credible two-state framework, this would be the gold standard for the committee—especially if it involves mutual recognition, a halt to settlements, and security guarantees 8.
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: Expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia or other major Arab states, with meaningful concessions to the Palestinians, would be seen as a historic breakthrough 94.
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: A U.S.-led international effort to rebuild Gaza, with Israeli and Palestinian buy-in and a durable ceasefire, could count as a major peace-building achievement 8.
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: Securing a long-term, verifiable truce in Gaza—with humanitarian corridors, prisoner exchanges, and international monitoring—would tick the “reduction of armed conflict” box.
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: Trump has floated the idea of personally brokering a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. If he were to deliver even a temporary halt to hostilities, it would fit the committee’s focus on urgent global crises 410.
3.
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: Hosting a successful peace congress or summit involving Israel, Arab states, and the Palestinians, with concrete steps toward reconciliation, would echo the committee’s historical focus on dialogue and diplomacy 1.
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: Launching or supporting major humanitarian efforts in conflict zones (e.g., Gaza, Ukraine) could strengthen his case.
| Nobel Criteria | Trump’s Track Record (2020–2025) | Committee View? |
|---|---|---|
| Fraternity between nations | Abraham Accords; Israel-UAE, Bahrain normalization | Positive, but not unique |
| Reduction of armed conflict | Temporary ceasefires (e.g., Iran, Gaza) | Needs permanence |
| Peace congresses/dialogue | Hosted summits, but often without all stakeholders | Mixed |
| Nonviolent methods | Some deals, but also escalatory rhetoric/actions | Controversial |
| Sustained contribution | Ongoing efforts, but often transactional | Needs legacy |
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A signed, enforceable Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement with wide regional support.
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A durable, monitored ceasefire in Gaza and/or Ukraine.
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A visible, sustained commitment to nonviolent diplomacy and humanitarian relief.
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International recognition – not just U.S. or Israeli praise, but buy-in from the UN, EU, Arab League, and credible NGOs.
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: Trump has already been nominated multiple times by U.S. lawmakers and foreign MPs, often citing the Abraham Accords and his recent attempts at Middle East and Ukraine peace. None of that has worked, so perhaps beating a dead horse there 11410.
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: The Nobel Committee has historically favored those whose peace efforts are broad-based, sustained, and internationally recognized—not just headline-grabbing deals 14.
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: Betting markets currently put Trump as a leading contender, but the committee is wary of awarding the prize for incomplete or one-sided initiatives 114.
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If Trump wants his Peace Prize, he needs to deliver a breakthrough that is durable, inclusive, and recognized by the broader international community – not just a photo op or a temporary truce. The boxes to check are clear; whether he can fill them in is another matter entirely 514.
Judging by how well the tariff talks are going, I’m not going to be holding my breath but, fortunately, we have the markets to keep us busy while we wait for trade deals or nuclear war (it’s really a flip of the coin at the moment) to break out. We’ll leave that in Trump’s tiny, capable hands and we’ll turn our attention back to the markets:
As noted above, the indexes dove when Team Trump announced that letters had gone out to countries that haven’t signed a trade deal yet (195 out of 198) but then they bounced back up when Trump revealed the deadline had been moved to August 1st (on the assumption that all foreign leaders read as slowly as Trump?).
Earnings results kick off a week from tomorrow (July 15th) and that gives us two weeks + 2 days (3 market weeks) to get earnings (and Guidance and Conference Calls) out of the way before the next deadline AND we have another Fed Meeting on the 30th, where Trump is hoping Powell will play with him and pretend there are no tariffs so rates can be lowered.
This week, however, we got nothin’. Just Delta (DAL) and Conagra (CAG) and Levi’s (LEVI), who should be doing well as the price of Cotton is down about 15% from last year’s average. LEVI is a long-time favorite of ours and, ahead of earnings, let’s make the following play in our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP):
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- Sell 20 LEVI 2027 $20 puts for $3.60 ($7,200)
- Buy 50 LEVI 2027 $17 calls for $4 ($20,000)
- Sell 40 LEVI 2027 $22 calls for $1.90 ($7,600)
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That’s net $5,200 on the $25,000+ spread so there’s $19,800 of upside potential if they can get over $22 in the next 18 months. The short put sale is aggressive and it obligates us to own 2,000 shares of LEVI at $20 but that’s “only” $40,000 – less than 1/2 of an allocation block in our LTP. So we would LOVE IT of LEVI misses and goes lower on Thursday as we’ll be happy to roll and DD and turn this into a full position 10-20% lower than it is now.
As it stands, we look forward to selling some short-term puts and calls AFTER we see how earnings go – that’s why we have 10 uncovered calls – more flexibility for our short-term sales… For example, the short Oct $20 calls are $1.20 and 15 of those can’t hurt us ($1,800) and, if we pair that with 10 short Oct $18 puts at $1 ($1,000) that’s $2,800 (53.8%) collected in our first 102 days but, as I said, we’re waiting for now – it’s just nice to know we can make an income when we want to…
Which reminds me, we just did our Top Trade Review for the first half or 2025 and 39 (78%) of those 50 trade ideas are already winners – in LESS THAN 6 MONTHS! The trades have made $355,948 so far ($7,000 per trade on average) and there is STILL $1,744,236 worth of upside potential over the next 18 months for that batch PLUS another $19,800 for our first trade of the 2nd Half (LEVI, above). Don’t you just love it?
JOIN US HERE AND DON’T MISS A THING!
And, if you want some more FREE Trade Ideas – I’ll be on Bloomberg’s Money Talk on Wednesday at 7pm and we’ll be updating that portfolio tomorrow morning – It’s also doing VERY WELL…
And that brings us to this week’s Economic Calendar and it’s BORING but consequential as there are no Fed speakers around Wednesday’s Fed Minutes but there are 3, 10 and 30-year Bond Auctions, which can move the markets – as can Small Business Optimism and Consumer Credit tomorrow – but that’s it – yawn!
So it will be an absorption week as we digest Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill and wait for all that other stuff to resolve or blow up (coin flip) ahead of Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports. Tesla (TSLA) is absorbing like a sponge sinking in the water but is it because Trump’s bill is cutting off their tax credits or because Elon is getting back into politics by forming his own party?
The only thing a Musk third party will do is cost the GOP elections as not only is Musk’s base a subset of Trump’s base but Musk’s money is a LARGE subset of GOP support – especially Trump’s. Without Corporate, Dark Money and Billionaire Backers like Musk (all legal now thanks to the Supreme Court in their historic “One Dollar, one vote” decision) the Democrats would have 5 times more money than the GOP. As it is, they have about 2/3.
Musk can tip those scales all the way to just 3 times more money for the GOP but it’s the Tech-foil hat crowd the GOP can’t afford to lose – the Tech Bros and the Crypto Bros (same people, generally) and the DOGE boys and, God forbid, the Silicon Valley Billionaires – who may want candidates that stay bought when they buy them – Elon can deliver that!
