Changing Macros & Trade (9/3/2025)
Timeline
0:01 – Market update (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Apple/Google court news)
2:17 – Webinar theme: changing macros and trades
7:27 – Google & Apple market cap impact on indexes
11:06 – Explanation of market cap overlap across indexes (NASDAQ, S&P, Dow, Russell)
17:25 – Why the Dow is a flawed index
18:02 – VIX analysis and volatility behavior
18:45 – OPEC strategy and oil market dynamics
23:32 – Game theory behind OPEC vs U.S. producers
23:53 – Natural gas, gasoline, and supply-driven energy moves
23:59 – Bonds and commodities (lumber, sugar, coffee, metals, meats, grains)
25:44 – Bitcoin pullback and Trump’s new coin profits
26:51 – Broadcom (AVGO) valuation concerns
28:07 – Qualcomm (QCOM) comparison vs Broadcom
34:11 – Adding QCOM to the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP)
35:08 – Constructing QCOM options trade (selling puts, buying calls, covered spreads)
42:56 – Trade math: upside potential, cash flow from premiums
48:20 – Summary of QCOM trade: high reward, low risk setup
52:43 – Beige Book analysis begins
55:24 – Macro findings: flat growth, weak consumer, late-cycle signals
57:04 – Tariffs, debt, labor market weakening, pre-recessionary signs
1:00:35 – Wage growth lagging, tariff-driven inflation sticky
1:03:10 – Corporate cost-cutting, AI hype, spending misallocation
1:05:39 – AI bubble risk compared to streaming services
1:07:39 – Discussion of consumer spending on streaming, subscription rotation idea
1:13:16 – Car ownership vs Uber/public transport economics
1:14:38 – Beige Book: consumer fragility, weak labor market, margin compression
1:15:45 – Return-to-office vs remote work generational shift
1:18:43 – Cost pressures, tariffs, margin compression setup for layoffs
1:19:19 – Fed policy expectations: rate cut likely due to Trump pressure
1:23:19 – Disconnect between Beige Book signals and market optimism
1:29:10 – Trade ideas: REITs, financials, Goldman Sachs vs JP Morgan
1:30:31 – First Horizon (FHN) as a butterfly portfolio play
1:32:18 – Caterpillar, builders, Mohawk analysis
1:35:25 – Small-cap rotation and energy stocks (Valero)
1:37:45 – Energy valuations, Valero debt trimming
1:38:51 – Portfolio allocation ideas pre-Fed meeting
1:40:00 – Qualcomm, Broadcom
1:42:00 – Webinar wrap-up, Q&A, closing remarks
Summary
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Opening/market setup: Post-vacation markets mixed—S&P slightly up, Dow down, NASDAQ lifted mainly by Google and Apple’s court win.
