Friday’s jobs report was shocking but not surprising. It was a useful lens through which to view the overarching economic reality heading into the final months of 2025.
The big picture: We’re living in an economy in which powerful policy winds are buffeting both the supply and demand sides of the economy, each with uncertain magnitudes and lags.
It makes for unusually high uncertainty about how to interpret incoming data that covers the recent past — and makes forecasting even the near future a perilous exercise.