Post Earnings & Post FED (9/10/2025)
Timeline
0:01 – Market perspective
0:47 – We added lagging tech stocks (Qualcomm, Oracle (not anymore!), Cisco)
1:46 – Top trades on Cisco and Oracle -- "what a day, what a day!"
3:08 – Setting up Boaty AI
6:36 – Oracle’s backlog and performance obligations
8:35 – Trump’s credit-taking for AI spending promises
10:00 – Cabinet meetings and political side notes
11:00 – Oracle’s AI growth and valuation compared to Nvidia
15:05 – Oracle’s cloud services and revenue mix
17:31 – Oracle’s upcoming corporate AI initiative (AI in the box)
22:54 – Revenue potential from Oracle’s AI-enhanced customers
23:05 – Oracle top trade setup: puts and spreads
27:59 – Options details: bull call spreads and selling premium
34:14 – Cisco as another top trade; infrastructure plays
35:03 – Comparisons with competitors (Amazon, Google, Coreweave, Broadcom, Nvidia)
37:40 – Risks with RPOs and LLM project; Oracle advantage
38:09 – Lockheed Martin and other plays reviewed
38:24 – Morning macro report: PPI, CPI, BlackRock equity stance
42:05 – AI-generated swing trade ideas (Oracle, Apple, GameStop, etc.)
43:49 – Bodie’s analysis rejecting weak trade ideas; Oracle long confirmed
46:58 – Technical issues with audio, Q&A on Oracle premium selling
50:30 – Premium-selling strategy explained with condo analogy
56:08 – Managing short calls and fallback strategies
59:20 – Bodie’s Q2 earnings sector analysis
1:02:00 – Sector breakdown: tech, financials, healthcare, energy, consumer discretionary, utilities
1:06:11 – Tariffs and corporate profit impacts
1:08:49 – Consumers paying tariffs; corporate cash flow hit
1:09:15 – Q3 outlook and earnings expectations
1:12:04 – Magnificent 7 distorting S&P results
1:17:03 – Trump’s tariffs, workforce issues, and automation discussion
1:23:03 – Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 commentary
1:24:05 – Technology investments and Oracle as a long-term play
1:26:02 – mRNA policy risks and biotech outlook
1:31:38 – Fed outlook brushed off, more focus on Oracle & AI
1:32:15 – Oracle and OpenAI contract news
1:33:53 – Posting Q2 analysis summary into comments
1:36:24 – Bottom line: Magnificent 7 distortions, tariffs, cautious earnings picture
1:39:23 – Market selloff drivers: inflation data, tariffs, geopolitics
1:46:11 – Trade idea: short S&P and oil into CPI report
1:48:12 – Wrap-up and next week’s session
Summary
The session highlighted Oracle as the big winner in the AI build-out.
