In which I lose faith in quantum computing
Timeline
0:00 – Initial skepticism and hype around quantum computing
0:22 – Physics basis and applications
2:03 – Few provable algorithmic advantages
2:12 – Technological progress
2:56 – Re-evaluation of commercial impact
3:14 – AI competing with quantum in chemistry/materials
3:45 – Logistics applications questioned
4:49 – Real-world business struggles with basics
5:08 – Finance applications
5:33 – Codebreaking as main driver of interest
6:14 – Quantum computers to remain research devices
6:31 – Reflection on overestimating potential
Summary
Physicist and author Sabine Hossenfelder traces her shifting view of quantum computing—from initial skepticism, to optimism about rapid technological progress, and back to the conclusion that it’s overhyped. While small quantum devices now exist and can demonstrate principles like entanglement, real-world applications remain limited. Promoted use cases such as quantum chemistry, materials research, logistics, and finance either face strong competition or are undermined by messy, real-world inefficiencies. The only significant driver of investment appears to be government interest in codebreaking, but that has limited commercial value. As costs rise, even big government enthusiasm could falter, leaving quantum computers confined to research labs. In Hossenfelder’s opinion, many quantum-focused companies face steep stock declines.
