Earnings & the $700/month Portfolio Review (11/05/2025)
Timeline:
0:00 – Intro and market updates
3:40 – U.S. politics and polarization
6:20 – Civil war and red vs. blue state economics
9:00 – Gerrymandering
10:00 – New York mayoral politics
14:00 – Google and AI integration (Gemini, Chrome, Perplexity)
19:00 – Demonstration of Gemini AI summarizing political article
23:00 – Using AI for investing analysis
25:00 – Discussion on AI capacity vs. Bodie’s limits
27:00 – Taxes and redistribution debate in NYC context
30:00 – Investing themes for 2026: regulation, energy, volatility
33:00 – Seeking Alpha demo: AI-generated stock ideas
36:00 – Deep dive on LYB (LyondellBasell) as value trade
44:00 – Swing trade vs. long-term thesis discussion
46:00 – Stock analysis process and portfolio fit
54:00 – Portfolio review: $700/month portfolio performance
56:00 – Compounding and returns math
58:00 – Example trades: Energy Transfer, SoFi, Path, Sale, UU, etc.
1:04:00 – Helen of Troy (HELE) trade
1:10:00 – Why options outperform direct stock ownership
1:12:00 – How AI-driven funds mis-price stocks
1:14:00 – Training AI
1:17:00 – Philosophy on tools, learning, and AI adoption
1:24:00 – Analogy: Options as tools like IKEA assembly or power drills
1:25:00 – Best Buy–IKEA partnership and BBY investment thesis
1:33:00 – Retail accounting discussion and GAAP distortions
1:35:00 – Critique of Wall Street analysts
1:37:00 – How real-world experience informs stock evaluation
1:39:00 – Revisiting Best Buy–IKEA deal
1:44:00 – Q&A: LYB, Pinterest drop, UU, SQQ hedging
1:48:00 – Market rebound and implications for politics
1:49:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and quantum computing risk
1:52:00 – Energy and inflation hedges (EPD, PR, Barrick Gold)
1:55:00 – Portfolio adjustments, performance projections and review
1:58:00 – Closing remarks and next-week preview
Summary:
Phil opens by discussing recent political and market developments, noting growing polarization in the U.S. and how political dysfunction is beginning to influence market sentiment.
