Welcome Back, Government! Let's Talk Earnings 11-12-2025
Timeline
0:00 – Oil drop and stop-level review
0:30 – Rotation out of mega-cap tech into financials/healthcare
1:30 – Dow distortion from Goldman
2:30 – Sector heat map: banks/healthcare strong, energy/real estate weak
3:45 – Ozempic/GLP-1 impact on restaurants and alcohol
4:50 – Monthly sector trends; financial strength vs consumer weakness
8:40 – Earnings overview
9:20 – Strong corporate earnings and revenue beats
10:15 – AI infrastructure boom and sustainability concerns
12:40 – Market-cap concentration and limited global demand
14:20 – Unrealistic AI growth projections
17:10 – Global spending constraints vs AI hype
20:18 – Subscription math limits AI revenue
21:03 – AI “circular revenue” problem
22:21 – Advertising vs paid AI economics
24:07 – OpenAI/subscriber-limit math
27:00 – AI spending unsustainable
29:11 – Utilities benefiting from AI electricity demand
30:27 – Overbuilding risk in AI infrastructure
31:02 – Tesla/autonomous driving critique
31:57 – Consumer staples and retail weakness
34:12 – Meta/Musk AI limitations
38:02 – Copyright restrictions hurting AI training
40:49 – AI spending vs GDP mismatch
42:05 – Overvaluation concerns
44:20 – Broader earnings breadth improving
45:37 – Tariffs not yet affecting Q3 numbers
47:03 – Q4 risks
49:18 – Momentum vs fundamentals
50:27 – AI bubble logic breakdown
54:27 – Vendor-financed AI revenue loop
57:05 – Overextrapolation fallacy
1:00:18 – Bubble psychology parallels
1:03:23 – Consumer weakness: delinquencies, trade-down
1:04:50 – Housing affordability crisis
1:05:41 – Wealth bifurcation
1:06:58 – 50-year mortgage critique
1:08:01 – Retail/middle-income strain
1:08:14 – Supreme Court tariff case
1:09:07 – Major-questions doctrine concerns
1:10:31 – Possible tariff rollback; refunds
1:11:41 – If upheld: inflation and presidential power risks
1:12:08 – Summary of key risks (AI, tariffs, consumers)
1:14:04 – AI spending crowding out other sectors
1:17:03 – Grid strain and utility rate hikes
1:18:39 – Winners (semis, cloud, utilities); losers (housing, manufacturing)
1:20:03 – XRT retail question
1:23:53 – Treasury auction review
1:25:10 – Fed speakers; mixed signals
1:28:38 – Shutdown blocking data
1:31:05 – Tariff-driven inflation
1:36:07 – Heavy borrowing and debt concerns
1:38:59 – Global market comparison
1:40:06 – VIX behavior and premium selling
1:41:20 – Tariff trade ideas
1:42:07 – Wrap-up
Summary
Phil reviews the sharp drop in oil and uses it to show how stops and intraday bounces work.
