Fed Rate Announcement & Trade of the Year Candidates (12/10/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Fed rate decision setup
0:54 – Trump pressure on Fed for larger cuts; dovish appointees
2:14 – Short vs long rates; inflation and debt-service math
4:10 – Trump deficits, tax cuts, and rising U.S. debt burden
4:47 – AI capex and liquidity being drained from markets
6:05 – AI job displacement, wages, and GDP drag
7:34 – Tariff revenue shortfall and deficit implications
8:07 – AI micro-jobs and disruption of Wall Street research
9:03 – AI vs Morningstar/Goldman-style analysis
10:27 – Morningstar report demo (Alphabet)
11:39 – Bodie’s AI report vs Morningstar comparison
15:16 – Risk-free return vs stock market; allocation choice
17:06 – Rotation from equities to bonds and liquid assets
18:29 – Watch list review and trade-of-the-year framework
19:22 – Early watch-list names and initial keep/kill decisions
21:22 – APD and capex cycle timing questions
22:36 – Boeing quality-control issues and talent drain
25:23 – Additional watch-list names (value vs too-high)
26:54 – Caterpillar, Gaza rebuild, and mining demand
27:57 – Cleveland Cliffs, tariffs, and steel positioning
28:52 – Paramount, Warner Bros bid, and Ellison/Arab money
31:07 – WBD valuation bubble and Twitter comparison
32:44 – More watch-list passes (banks, industrials, consumer)
36:06 – Freeport/copper as AI and grid-build play
37:47 – Bodie system hiccup and reset
51:23 – Fed decision: 0.25% cut and dissents
52:18 – QE restart via $40B/month Treasury purchases
55:01 – Mechanics of QE and balance-sheet expansion
56:36 – Immediate market reaction (bonds, dollar, Bitcoin)
1:01:00 – Warren’s take: quiet pivot back to QE
1:09:17 – SEP analysis: stagflation risk and weaker labor market
1:14:05 – Dot plot: multi-year easing cycle, new ~3% “neutral”
1:21:09 – Re-evaluating trade-of-year picks under new Fed regime
1:21:28 – Sectors likely to benefit: metals, megacap tech, utilities
1:23:30 – Liquidity-driven rallies and blow-off-top risk
1:25:17 – Powell press conference: inflation vs employment trade-off
1:33:03 – Fed cutting from “okay” data due to plumbing fears
1:37:07 – Market winners: homebuilders, metals; weaker dollar
1:38:10 – Summary: Fed easing, 3% inflation tolerance, higher QE
1:39:05 – AI, structural unemployment, and job-market mismatch
1:40:11 – Case for basic income / safety net in an AI economy
1:42:22 – AI boom vs workforce: you can’t have both fully booming
1:43:04 – Final note: re-thinking 2025 trades for easing + higher inflation
Summary
Phil discusses the Fed’s rate decision, the bond market, and the massive policy shift unfolding underneath the headlines.
