Trade of the Year & Portfolio Review (12/17/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Oil short thesis and Brent/dollar setup
0:52 – API vs EIA inventory reports
3:12 – Oil targets and 5% Rule framework
5:05 – Petroleum status report details
6:05 – U.S. oil exports vs domestic supply reality
8:44 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve and depletion math
12:48 – Energy policy critique and long-term oil risk
19:00 – LTPT update and portfolio timing
21:50 – Macro outlook and 2026 investment framework
24:39 – AI growth limits and infrastructure bottlenecks
31:37 – Data-center capex risk and financing mismatch
38:14 – Future tech disruption (space data centers)
41:01 – Interest rates, Fed limits, and bond market control
45:02 – Portfolio construction and diversification philosophy
48:04 – PPL trade mechanics and liquidity issues
53:32 – Technical channels and options strategy
58:49 – Watch list reduction process
1:00:21 – Trade of the Year: Pfizer
1:05:04 – Portfolio adjustments and premium selling
1:23:57 – Profit protection example (Synchrony)
1:34:41 – Final Four trades overview
1:35:00 – Energy Transfer natural gas thesis
1:39:11 – Micron trade structure
1:42:09 – Pfizer deep dive and options math
1:49:10 – Risk management, stops, and oil revisit
1:51:03 – Closing remarks and next webinar
Webinar Summary
Phil opens with an active oil short, explaining that recent price strength is misleading. Overnight gains were driven by a falling dollar and headline inventory figures, not real supply tightness. When inventory data is adjusted properly, the reports actually show net builds, reinforcing his bearish oil thesis. He uses the 5% Rule to frame near-term oil targets, arguing that a return toward recent lows is more likely than a sustained bounce.
From there, the discussion widens into a structural critique of U.S. energy policy. Phil emphasizes that the U.S. is exporting an enormous share of its oil production while simultaneously depleting reserves.
