We’ve got two major developments in Eurasia. We’re talking about Ukraine disabling two ships in the Caspian Sea and Poland getting EU approval to build a nuclear power plant.

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Summary

Peter Zeihan discusses two significant developments in the former Soviet region. First, Ukrainian special forces reportedly struck vessels in the landlocked Caspian Sea that were transporting Iranian military cargo to Russia—a surprising operation far outside Ukraine’s normal range. This creates a strategic dilemma for Russia, as defending shipping routes in this remote, demilitarized body of water would require substantial resources that are difficult to supply.

Second, Poland received EU approval to build its first nuclear power plant, with construction starting in two years. Beyond energy security, this has major military implications: the plant will produce plutonium as a waste product, giving Poland the fissile material needed to develop nuclear weapons within weeks or months if desired. Zeihan notes that Poland is one of several European nations moving toward nuclear capability as the United States reduces its security commitments to Europe. He predicts four to eight new nuclear powers will emerge in Europe over the coming years as nations take defense into their own hands.